Week 15 NFL Predictions

I love the last few weeks of the regular season. The good teams do what they need to do to get into the playoffs, the bad teams just keep trying to play spoiler, and of course the really bad teams (or just confused ones) fire their head coach because, despite his success, they just really don’t like him. That’s OK, Kansas City, mediocrity is obviously preferable to your GM and HC playing nice. That’s why the last time you won a playoff game was with another team’s aging scraps (Joe Montana).

In a surprising twist on the Tebow beat, the Broncos came back from 10 down with less than 2 minutes remaining to beat the hapless Chicago Bears. Of course, Tim Tebow should again get all the credit, despite the fact that the Broncos were scoreless for 58 minutes, the Bears only put up 10, Marion Barber stepped out of bounds with 56 seconds remaining, rather than dropping to the grass and later fumbled the ball in field-goal range in overtime, and Matt Prater calmly booted two 50-yarders – including an absolutely absurd 59-yarder as time expired – but clearly, this is all a product of Tim Tebow’s phenomenal skills as a quarterback. But I digress.

I saw a SportsCenter question earlier today asking which was more likely: the Packers going 16-0 or the Colts going 0-16? The answer? Both are happening, so long as Mike McCarthy doesn’t do the foolish thing and bench his starters against Detroit in Week 17. Congratulations to Green Bay, and to Indy, welcome to the club. Population: 3, but we’re working on that. With that, here are Week 15’s picks:

Last Week: 11-4

Total: 115-59

Jacksonville (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5):

You know, I specifically said last week that if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were to play the Colts now, the Colts would win a game this season … and then I pick the Bucs over Jacksonville. Someone tell me why I would do this? Because I’m not really sure. But great job, Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn’t just have a career day, with an incredible four touchdowns and over 100 total yards. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s not the kind of team that just hands the ball off to the defense multiples times inside their own 10. Jacksonville’s defense is stout, but not enough to stop the (growing) number of weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal, and if Atlanta holds MJD in check, the Jaguars simply have nothing.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-17

Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):

Time for everybody in Dallas to get their hard hats out again, because this thing’s about to collapse yet again. And Dallas fans, don’t you dare blame this on Dan Bailey. Should he have made that field goal against Arizona? Yes, and he did. Not his fault his coach iced him and he shockingly missed the second of two kicks that have a less than 50-50 shot of going in. And Jason Pierre-Paul simply played lights out last week, right down to blocking that final kick. DeMarco Murray going down and weak defensive play put the Cowboys in this potentially devastating position, not Bailey or – for once – Tony Romo. Thankfully, like I said, the Buccaneers are very, very bad. This is a game Tampa Bay really needs to win if Raheem Morris wants to keep his job, because the Bucs simply have no excuse for their lack of performance this year. However, they just don’t seem to have it together enough to stop a team that’s also viewing this as a must-win game.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-20

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13):

Two things: 1) Tennessee was a New Orleans extra point – the Saints went for two on their final TD – from playing in its fourth-straight 23-17 games. I’m not Elias, but I’m sure that has to be some kind of record, considering the last time three straight happened was like 60 years ago. 2) There are what some to be very credible reports of the Saints’ sideline blowing a whistle during the Titans’ final, and ultimately futile, drive. If those reports turn out to be true, New Orleans could take a hit bigger than what Spygate did to New England. Sean Payton and Drew Brees are considered class individuals, and for either of them to allow an individual on their team to do something like trying to trick the Titans’ offense into a mistake is despicable. Oh, right, the score for this one:

Tennessee Titans: 27-13

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6):

I said earlier in the year that good teams tend to respond to blowout losses with great performances of their own. The Raiders looked awful in their game against Green Bay, but it was one no one expected them to win, so in terms of standings, it doesn’t really matter (Pride is another matter, though. Seriously, Oakland, ew.) The good thing is, the Raiders match up incredibly well with the Lions. Their porous run defense shouldn’t be much of a factor with the Lions anemic run game, especially if Kevin Smith misses this week. Their pass defense isn’t great, but it should be enough to slow down Detroit if the Lions’ only option is through the air. On the other side of the ball, Denarius Moore should be back, giving Carson Palmer a full list of targets again. The Lions’ D, bipolar at the best of time, will have to be nearly flawless for a full 60 minutes, something it hasn’t done since Week 8 at Denver, and won’t be able to do now.

Oakland Raiders: 24-13

Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8):

The firing of Tony Sparano wasn’t a well-timed move, but it was necessary for Miami to begin searching for its next coach and to go ahead and become recovering from the past four years. The Dolphins laid an egg against the Eagles, and the firing could damage an already flawed team. Buffalo, meanwhile, seems to have recovered from its steady stream of season-ending injuries enough to make this season meaningful, if too late for a playoff push. Timing should be to thank for Buffalo’s first win in seven games.

Buffalo Bills: 28-20

Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6):

At first glance, Chicago still seems in prime position to hold on for a playoff spot, but that’s assuming you don’t realize just how bad Caleb Hanie is. I know the Denver defense has been good lately, but Marion Barber put up 140 total yards, and Chicago still scored only 10 points. The Seahawks, meanwhile, under the resurgence of Marshawn Lynch, are the guys I love for a dark-horse contender. Seattle has to win out, but right now, only two games behind Atlanta and Detroit (both of whom have to play their respective division leaders, New Orleans and Green Bay, yet) and playing as well as either, it has a good shot. It has to start this week, though, but given how aimless Chicago’s offense has been, unless Devin Hester returns a couple kicks for TD, Chicago won’t be able to limit Lynch enough to keep it close.

Seattle Seahawks: 17-7

Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8):

I think we can safely say that Green Bay has the perfect record if it wants it (whether that will continue through the playoffs is another question entirely), but after the Greg Jennings scare, McCarthy might be understandably worried about risking his players. Kansas City, meanwhile, should be settling nicely into its “turmoil” stage. I understand that GM Scott Pioli and Todd Haley weren’t getting along, but this is a classic instance of where individuals need to put personal feelings aside for the greater good. In the last two years, the Chiefs have looked better than they have in nearly two decades. You can claim that other teams have overcome injury, and so should the Chiefs, but Buffalo and Jacksonville aside – and seriously, look at those records – I really don’t see another roster that comes close to Kansas City. The Chiefs, at some point in the season, have lost an all-star safety, quarterback and running back for the season, as well as a starting linebacker, two wide receivers and a tight end. Teams just don’t recover from that. Regardless, it won’t affect this week’s outcome.

Green Bay Packers: 34-13

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-11):

Let’s be clear here, guys. Cincinnati is the exact same team it was six weeks. It’s just faced a devastatingly good list of opponents, and this roster is too young to deal with that, especially since this gauntlet came around the time a lot of rookies tend to hit their wall. This is still a decent team with an outside shot of making the playoffs, and now it plays a St. Louis team that is unexplainably bad, with really only one decent weapon (Stephen Jackson). After this week, Cincinnati closes out the season with a home-stand against the Cardinals and a Ravens squad that will likely be resting a lot of its players. Don’t write these guys off just yet.

Cincinnati Bengals: 31-17

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11):

Let’s get this straight: New Orleans is not Detroit. When the Vikings fall behind by 27 points, they’re not going to come back this time, because there is absolutely no way that the Saints’ D gives up that many points to a completely horrid offense that can’t decide which quarterback it wants to use right now.

New Orleans Saints: 38-13

Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6):

I’m so glad Shanahan has decided to leave Grossman in. It makes Redskins games much more entertaining. For instance, what should’ve been a blowout loss to New England was actually entertaining, because Washington had chances to score, and took full advantage. That said, the Giants are in the same boat as the Bengals. Nobody expected them to fare particularly well over the past few weeks, yet when they match those expectations, critics lambast them for losing. It wasn’t just Dallas choking last week, though. Eli Manning is a very, very good quarterback right now, and that defense can step up when needed to. New York owns the driver’s seat of the NFC East, and don’t expect it to relinquish it until at least Week 17.

New York Giants: 24-17

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3):

Carolina defense – exposed. That’s what happens when they go back up against good teams. Cam Newton, of course, just produces at a consistently incredible level, but like all rookies, he is going to make mistakes. The four turnovers against Atlanta in the second half were a bit extreme – seriously, if he just sits down, Carolina probably wins that game – but he will smooth out, and once Carolina can find a defense, it will be a contender for years to come. Houston, as improbable as it seems, survived its gauntlet stretch without either of its two starting quarterbacks or its star wide receiver and defensive end, but not only did the Texans survive, they thrived as owners of the league’s best defense and a seven-game win streak that shows no signs of ending in the regular season.

Houston Texans: 31-20

New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5):

Finally … finally, Denver faces a somewhat well-rounded team. (Let’s be honest, New England’s defense is horrible, but its offense phenomenal, so that makes up for it.) The Broncos biggest issue will be that the Patriots defense is just so bad. I don’t think anyone will argue that Tebow is truly an awful quarterback in the first three quarters, which means that the Patriots, notorious for not being able to actually stop a pass play at any point during the play, don’t even really have to try to hold him in check. Tom Brady, meanwhile, will give the Broncos their biggest defensive test since Week 8 against Detroit, a test they resoundingly failed, by the way. Denver should make this an entertaining game, but the game is going to get out reach far too quickly for any last-second Tebow-rics (Tebow … heroics … get it? No? I’ll stop.)

New England Patriots: 31-17

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8):

I think I mentioned earlier that the Jets are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, thanks in large part to Rex Ryan not running his mouth every other day. It suits New York, because no one seems to be taking a Jets team that can easily go at least 10-6 seriously. Unfortunately, it seems like the Eagles only play best when completely ignored, which is what they’re doing right now. The defense worked together to shut down a good Miami team, and Michael Vick actually managed to go largely mistake free. Philadelphia should be able to do enough in these last three weeks to make the remaining regular season interesting and at least lock down Andy Reid’s job for next season.

Philadelphia Eagles: 21-16

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7):

Cleveland just really isn’t a good team right now. They’re not horrendously bad, like Indianapolis or Tampa Bay, but they also can’t do anything more than just keep from getting blown out, which actually makes the Browns more boring. Arizona, meanwhile, is in the same position as Seattle, and may actually have a better setup. The Cardinals close out with two home games – one a final-week showdown with the Seahawks in what could become very interesting – and a road trip to Cincinnati. What makes this Cardinals team so interesting is that, Larry Fitzgerald aside, it really has no household names to explain why this turnaround (5 of their last 6) is happening. Even better, because there’s not a particular player opponents can gameplan for, it’s hard to shut down either side of the ball. Arizona will probably slip next week in Cincinnati, but for this week, at least, it should keep things interesting.

Arizona Cardinals: 17-10

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7):

By every right, Baltimore should win this game. The Chargers’ offense puts up turnovers as fast it puts up yards, and the defense, statistically, is sound but – thanks to turnovers again – tends to give up lots and lots of points. For the Ravens, Ray Rice is unstoppable, the receiving corps is so talented that, despite Joe Flacco’s inconsistency, at least one receiver is making plays week to week, and the defense has shown its ready for life after Ray (Lewis). There’s just one little problem: It’s December. Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in history in this month, and that shouldn’t change this week. In fact, the pressure and the nature of the Chargers’ opponent should mean Rivers is playing at his highest level.

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3):

It’s about time Monday Night Football got a game right, and of course it’ll be the one I miss. That aside, this could be one of the best games of the regular season, especially since it seems the Harbaughs will be working together to take down the Steelers … seriously, though, is that in any way ethical, John Harbaugh? Either way, with great defenses on either side, a nearly unstoppable quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) on one side and a nearly unstoppable running back (Frank Gore) on the other, the two teams couldn’t be much more unevenly matched. The deciding factor has to go to the home team, though. San Francisco hasn’t been relevant since 2002, and this week will be fighting for its right to hold onto a first-round bye. If that doesn’t drive these Niners fans to the game in droves, nothing will.

San Francisco 49ers: 20-17

Week 14 NFL Predictions

Well finals week means a belated blog, but let’s be honest: If you needed my help picking Pittsburgh over Cleveland, then you clearly aren’t watching enough football this year. The solution? Watch more. Buffalo Wild Wings plays every game every week, and I strongly suggest camping out there for a few hours.

In other news, Green Bay seems to have survived its last major scare of the season, while the 49ers, who a few weeks ago seemed locks for at least the No. 2 seed, if not overtaking the Packers at one, now have to watch their backs as the incredibly hot Saints are looking about as perfect as a football team can lately. Tim Tebow finally deserves the credit he’s been getting for weeks, with a thrilling shootout in Minnesota (which most of the West Coast apparently didn’t get to see). The Texans don’t seem to remember how to lose – matching their franchise-best win total in only Week 13 – while the Bears are embracing the we-need-a-QB argument to the fullest expense. Seriously, that was an ugly game, Chicago. Most of the divisions seem to have settled down somewhat, with the exception of the turbulent AFC West and NFC East, but hopefully this week will shed some light on who’s going to take them. With that, here’s this week’s picks:

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 104-54

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5):

I know the Packers are undefeated, and I’ve never liked hearing people say that some other, non-undefeated team is the hottest team in the same league, but I really think that applies here. Drew Brees is making an all-out assault on the record books right now – he has 4,000 yards through 12 games. That’s beyond ridiculous – and the defense is back to its opportunistic, 2009 ways. New Orleans didn’t blow out Detroit, but it did make a good team with a strong chance at making the playoffs look positively pedestrian. The Titans, for their part, though, aren’t too bad either. They held off a suddenly scrappy Bills team in Buffalo, and Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing through the last four games. As well as the Titans seem to be playing right now, though, they just have no way to stop Brees this week.

New Orleans Saints: 27-21

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5):

The Lions played one of their more consistent games against New Orleans last week. Unfortunately for them, they were just consistently worse than the Saints all game long. However, the Lions don’t have to be great to back into the postseason. The Falcons look guaranteed to lock up a wildcard spot, but the Lions’ competition for the remaining slot are QB-less Chicago, collapsing New York, and a way-behind, but still-surging Seattle squad, which means all Detroit has to do is beat the teams it’s supposed to beat. And Minnesota is one of those teams. Adrian Peterson aside, this team has officially hit zero redeemable value. Detroit needs to use this time to recover before hitting the final, incredibly difficult three games of its schedule.

Detroit Lions: 24-13

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5):

I honestly don’t know how to pick this Houston team. By all rights, it should be losing every game, yet it doesn’t. The Texans beat a good Falcons team after losing both Schaub and now Johnson (again) last week. Now they face a solid Bengals team that has the exact opposite issue from the ones the Texans face – perfectly healthy but not winning – in Cincinnati. So naturally, Houston’s going to win this game.

Houston Texans: 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8):

You know what’s funny? Asante Samuel said earlier this year that the Philly front office was playing “fantasy football” rather than real football. I dismissed that statement and chalked it up to a disgruntled player who took being put on the trading block personally. Looking back on it now, seems like Samuel diagnosed the Eagles’ problems before the Eagles knew they had problems. And of course, now they’re playing the Dolphins at the worst possible time. Philly might shut down Reggie Bush this week – he’s due for a bad game – but, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, Miami has developed too many weapons to be slowed down by the struggling Eagles’ D.

Miami Dolphins: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5):

It’s weird. The Jets were essentially erased from the playoff picture after a Week 11 loss to the Broncos, and now they’re actually tied for a playoff spot right now. And yet … no Rex Ryan comments? What is the world coming to? Meanwhile, Kansas City just doesn’t know when to give up. Thanks to a weird upset in the Windy City, the Chiefs aren’t completely eliminated from the AFC West picture, but after this week, they should be. KC just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently compete with anyone, and as long as New York can keep its offense producing for a full 60 minutes, the Jets should have this one in hand.

New York Jets: 31-14

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8):

Thanks to a timely collapse by the Giants and Lions and the loss of Jay Cutler by the Bears, the Falcons have virtually locked up a wildcard slot in the NFC. Matt Ryan and Roddy White seem to have hit their stride, and Michael Turner continues to quietly be one of the most productive backs in the league. Carolina’s defense seems much improved in the last two weeks, but this was against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay – who really may be just as bad as the Colts right now. Newton singlehandedly dominated the Bucs last week, but Atlanta’s defense is a lot more stout and won’t be so easy to push around.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8):

I’m glad Mike Shanahan finally came to his senses and decided to start the quarterback that, you know, moves the ball, but it’s too little too late. The Skins’ D has sunk to its worst level in years, and New England’s defense has improved to the point where it can actually be called a defense now. Tom Brady has his rhythm back after a few-game slump, Deion Branch is fully healthy and Rob Gronkowski is simply putting on a show. The Patriots should be able to just about lock up a playoff spot this week.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9):

This game may actually have zero redeemable value. I would say don’t watch this, but I’m pretty sure it’s been blacked out. Tampa Bay has been truly awful the past few weeks, and Jacksonville not only has a completely inept offense; it now has no coach. It should be just what the Buccaneers need to start righting the ship (see what I did there?).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20-17

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3):

Well the Cotls have … meh, I’m not gonna fake this. I wonder if Ray Rice can go for 200?

Baltimore Ravens: 37-13

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5):

Four weeks ago, this game looked completely different. The Broncos and Tim Tebow seemed like a passing phase, while Jay Cutler was just starting to light defenses up. Then we got to see just how bad Caleb Hanie is, and not only has the Broncos’ D been surprisingly efficient – giving up more than 20 points only once in its last six wins – but Tebow actually showed off a little bit last week. Chicago’s defense will keep this thing close, but Denver – I can’t believe I’m gonna say this – is too well-rounded to take out at home.

Denver Broncos: 23-15

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)

I know it’s just the St. Louis Rams, but the 49ers did something impressive with their 26-0 win last week. Thanks to the lack of talent disparity in the NFL and the odds of a defense screwing up at least one play out of 60-80 during a game, it’s incredibly hard to shut out an opponent, especially in a blowout. That the Niners did it, and without Patrick Willis for the whole game, is amazing and a pretty nice bounce back from that loss to the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are no slouches themselves, right now. Winners of 4-of-5, they, along with the Seahawks’ performance in the last five weeks have helped to make the West the hottest division in the NFC. Of course, Arizona’s only loss in the last five weeks? Against San Francisco. Kevin Kolb is back and seems to be playing much better, while a much-improved defense should help slow down Frank Gore and a resurgent Alex Smith, but it won’t be enough to stop the Niners from further extending their division lead.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0):

All year long, Oakland has been gashed by the run. All year long, Green Bay hasn’t touched the run. One of these has to give this week. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great, but it will be one of the best Rodgers has faced to this point, and he’ll need to be either perfect or be able to seriously manage the run game this week. On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer is officially playing like an NFL starter now – even getting trounced in Miami, he managed to almost make a game of it – and Green Bay’s pass defense leaves a lot on the table. Fortunately for the Pack, Darren McFadden looks to be out for one more week, and it’s going to be cold this week at Lambeau, giving Green Bay all the edge it needs.

Green Bay Packers: 31-20

Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7):

Surely we can’t attribute the Chargers’ failings to the fact that the offense hasn’t been healthy all year long. I know Ryan Mathews was healthy enough for the first time to make a stout run D just look silly and Malcolm Floyd is simply fully healthy for the first time all year, but that cannot excuse Philip Rivers horrendous play during crucial moments of past games. That said, based on how San Diego simply ripped into Jacksonville last week, hopes have to be pretty high for San Diego, which comes close to controlling its own destiny. It has to start with a win this week against the still-reeling-but-scrappy Bills. C.J. Spiller is making a nice impact, and Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have picked himself back up, but it’s not going to be enough to stop San Diego at home.

San Diego Chargers: 31-23

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5):

Was the Arizona game the point where Dallas fans slap their foreheads and say, “Here we go again”? Because that was timed beautifully. First December game this year, and Dallas does its part by providing a skunk of a game, and it can’t even be blamed on Tony Romo this time. Of course, the Giants won’t make the Cowboys’ collapse easy, in the midst of their own serious breakdown. New York played incredibly well against Green Bay last week, but that kind of heart-wrenching, last-second loss is going to take a serious emotional toll on an already suffering team, which it doesn’t need, heading into a primetime showdown with one of its biggest rivals. Dallas should be able to widen the gap just a bit in the race for the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys: 23-17

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7):

As long as these two teams have been in the same division (nine years now), they have never been relevant at the same time. Why would you subject us to this game on primetime, ESPN? Why, why, why? Two words: Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-10

Week 13 NFL Predictions

And the gap gets just a little bit wider. San Francisco, which seems to be the only serious contender to the still-undefeated Packers, went down in the Har-Bowl (cheesy, but I heard it somewhere, and I love it) on Thanksgiving night. Given how well Aaron Rodgers is still playing, it’s hard to imagine anyone can narrow that gap again, although Drew Brees and Tom Brady are back to trying their best to do so. Houston, meanwhile, leads the AFC, yet can’t seem to catch a lucky break, losing its second-string QB for the season with a broken collarbone this week. Of course, this team is nothing if not resilient. Andre Johnson and Arian Foster have both missed significant playing time, yet the team still averages around 25 points per game, and the Texans’ defense only became the league’s best after Mario Williams went down. Meanwhile, farther west, the Broncos continue to win, and their defense continue to get absolutely zero credit for its phenomenal turnaround, thanks to Tebowmania. The Chargers and the Eagles have reached free fall, and Jacksonville decided it wanted to join them. Finally, the gaps in the divisional races seem to keep widening, and it looks like we’re only a few days away from the first team (San Francisco) locking up its division title. With all that info to process, here are Week 13’s picks:

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 94-48

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7):

I think I said it last week, but I like Vince Young for this team. He’s a less dynamic Michael Vick, but that’s a great thing, because it should be the defense that gets the spotlight on this team, and since it’s forced to simply play goalkeeper after Vick’s pick obsession kicks in, it doesn’t have the chance to because it simply gets worn down. New England was an exception to this. Both Brady and Wes Welker had their best games in weeks and it was all Young could do to simply keep up statistically, let alone on the scoreboard. That said, however, Philly’s play is still too erratic on offense to convince me to get back on board. Marshawn Lynch has a very favorable matchup against the Eagles D, and this game may just coe down to which quarterback doesn’t throw interceptions. And I think that will be Seattle’s Charlie Whitehurst.

Seattle Seahawks: 24-20

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6):

If Tennessee could get consistent play from Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson, it could easily be a contender in the AFC. Unfortunately for the Titans, the two seem to simultaneously click about once a month, which is what they did last week. CJ seems to be making men miss again, but he’ll need to do this at least two weeks in a row to convince me he’s back. Buffalo, meanwhile, showed more fight last week than it had the last month combined. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked much better and the team seemed to be able to absorb yet another major loss in Fred Jackson. The team seems to be willing to fight with or without its missing key players, and that’s a dangerous look against a team as inconsistent as Tennessee.

Buffalo Bills: 23-17

Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3):

The loss to Kevin Smith hurt (and Jahvid Best going on IR from a concussion is no picnic either), but that’s not the sole reason the Lions were shut out most of the game. Jeff Hanson was off his usual kicking prowess, and Matt Stafford was, well, Matt Stafford. Detroit, unfortunately (for them and me), will have to accept what they get out of him, though, because he’s just as likely to turn around and eat up the Saints’ defense this week. New Orleans, meanwhile, has hit its stride. Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas are rolling, Drew Brees could easily throw for 5,500, and the defense is back to Super Bowl form. It’s hard to imagine any team stopping the Saints for the rest of the year, and the inconsistency-plagued Lions are no exception.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (4-7) at Chicago Bears (7-4):

And now we’re set up for a battle of the QB-less in Chicago this week. It’s sad how sporadic the Chiefs have been this season, initially counted out, then contenders for the division title after a four-game win streak and now all but eliminated after another three-game losing streak. The Bears, however, only recently passed the mantle of NFC’s hottest team to New Orleans after Jay Cutler broke his hand (of course, the Chiefs losing Matt Cassel isn’t exactly a brush on the shoulder). Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Chicago wins games on special teams and defense and on the back of Matt Forte. Kansas City has … Kyle Orton, who may be valuable in the coming weeks, but instinct says he’s not quite ready to be on the wrong side of the Bears defense.

Chicago Bears: 24-14

Oakland Raiders (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-8):

Carson Palmer is back, Darren McFadden is almost there, and the Raiders are doing Al Davis’ memory proud. The loss of Cutler helped, but the Raiders still managed to shut down Matt Forte and the rest of that offense for much of the game, and actually outdueled the Bears on special teams. If you’re asking why that matters, any time a kicker kicks six field goals, and Devin Hester doesn’t have the longest play of the game, it matters. The Dolphins on the other hand can only look forward to playing spoiler from this point on, but they play that role remarkably well right now, giving Dallas a scare into the final minute. Miami holds a key advantage in this game, thanks to Reggie Bush’s resurgence and a Raiders’ D that continues to struggle against the run. Look for Miami to get to play spoiler at least one more time this year.

Miami Dolphins: 17-13

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-9):

Minnesota does two things well: run the ball and stop the run. Denver does both as well. One slight fix for Minnesota: It’s never seen the likes of Denver’s ground attack. That, coupled with the likelihood of Adrian Peterson not playing at full capacity (if he plays at all, which I don’t think is likely), means Minnesota is hard-pressed to find any advantages against a much-improved Denver defense. Look for the Broncos to finish the incredible divisional turnaround this week.

Denver Broncos: 18-14

Indianapolis Colts (0-11) at New England Patriots (8-3):

Not even gonna waste my breath.

New England Patriots: 40-14

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3):

Anything I write will be a repeat of what I wrote for these two teams’ matchup a few weeks ago. Two solid teams, vying for second in the AFC North and at least one wild-card spot. Again, though, Pittsburgh has the advantage in Big Ben and a defense that, while aging, still have the maturity advantage that goes a long way in these defensive struggles. Pittsburgh will complete the series sweep this year, but this could be the last time anyone says that for a long time.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-13

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7):

From a talent and performance perspective, at least in this moment, Carolina runs away with this game. However, both teams have been finding ways to lose throughout the year, and quite frankly, I think Carolina’s methods have been much more impressive. Cam Newton will probably have the best statistical day he’s had in weeks, but it won’t be enough to stop the Buccaneers from pulling out of their tailspin, for one week at least. LeGarrette Blount is back to his old hurdle-the-cornerback-with-ease self, and eventually the rest of that team will have to pull itself together.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-23

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington Redskins (4-7):

I wish Shanahan would make up his mind about his quarterbacks. This QB shuffle makes it incredibly hard to predict the team’s performance, though I think it’s clear that Grossman is the better QB (though I don’t think that was ever a question, and I don’t know why Shanahan tried to answer it). Unfortunately for Grossman, the Jets’ problems stem almost entirely from the offensive side of the ball, leaving him to face a very tough, very motivated defense this week. I’m still not sold on the Jets’ offensive capabilities, and I don’t think we’ll see anything here to push me one way or the other, but New York should be able to do enough to walk out with an ugly win.

New York Jets: 17-13

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Houston Texans (8-3):

Atlanta’s finally pulling together, just as it seems that Houston is about to hit a tailspin. I think Houston can pull out of this, and if nothing else, it has a fairly easy path to locking up its division, but the Falcons should be able to steal a win in Reliant it otherwise shouldn’t be able to have earned.

Atlanta Falcons: 24-17

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7):

Again, I have plenty of things to say about this game, but so far Baltimore has managed to defy logic by losing to shoddy opponents after a big win every single time this year. Look for this week to be no different, as a newly motivated Peyton Hillis runs roughshod over the Ravens’ D.

Cleveland Browns: 16-13

Green Bay Packers (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5):

This looks to be the final major test for the Packers to go 16-0. Under ordinary circumstances, Green Bay should incredibly wary of New York right now, but these aren’t normal circumstances. Tom Coughlin is once again under fire for his job, and the players are now fielding accusations of simply giving up against New Orleans – an accusation they really didn’t bother trying to dispel on the field. The Giants will probably come out this week playing for everything – a loss drops them to possibly three behind the Cowboys with four to play – but Rodgers simply has too many weapons. Eli Manning and Co. will keep it close for most of the game, but the Giants just don’t have enough motivation/skill/whatever they need to slow down the Pack.

Green Bay Packers: 37-28

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7):

Funny how the Cowboys were discounted as busts at the beginning of the year, yet now they could easily back their way into a playoff spot. They won’t do that, though, because of games like this one. The Cardinals have won four games, but that’s because they’re in the NFC West. Dallas has too many weapons for Arizona to reasonably stop them, and it can’t rely on Beanie Wells to repeat his performance last week, since that seems to just be a St. Louis anomaly (see DeMarco Murray). Dallas should be able to move one game from locking up its division this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 24-16

St. Louis Rams (2-9) at San Francisco 49ers (9-2):

A team that’s reeling for the second time this year with a defense that’s more porous than the an acne-ridden teenager meets a team that will be furious after its loss in Baltimore, fueled by a power back and a powerful defense. This won’t be pretty, St. Louis.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-13

San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8):

I want to pick against the reeling Chargers. I really, really do, but they keep getting matchups like this, where I sit and think, “There is absolutely no way they should lose they game.” Yet week after week, they manage to prove me a wrong. A team with that much talent can only perform like this if it really just doesn’t care, and I think that’s what’s happening to this Norv Turner-led squad. He’s got to be out at season’s end. Fortunately for him, the Bolts’ opponent this week decided to go ahead and trash the remainder of the season by firing Jack del Rio in the middle of Week 13. Why this would happen, I have no idea (maybe it had something to do with the new ownership?), but it’s never a bad idea. It does nothing for the current team, and it won’t do anything for this one.

San Diego Chargers: 27-13

Week 11 NFL Predictions

Talk about a weekend of upsets. The Raiders started it off by handling the reeling Chargers at home, and it continued straight through Sunday night, where the supposedly reeling Patriots crushed the Jets at home. And few suffered from it more than my picks did. Aside from learning that not even guarantees are certain (paging Baltimore, anyone home?), Week 10 managed to show a few things. Green Bay is, barring a potential slipup in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, well on its way to an undefeated season. San Francisco is the NFL’s last best hope to stopping back-to-back championships for the Pack. Jim Schwartz’ purposeful lack of discipline is biting him yet again. Denver may well be in playoff range, and Baltimore is redefining “playing down to your opponent’s level.” But what might be most shocking is just how good Houston, and yet how bad they might be. Matt Schaub is officially out for the season, and what may be the NFL’s hottest team is now the AFC’s No. 1 team without three of its four best players. The parity in the NFL this year refuses to completely go away, but maybe Week 11 will help sort a few more things out. Here’s my picks:

Last Week: 6-10

Overall: 69-43

New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5):

It’s funny how fast a team can go from supposedly locking up its division to be counted out of the playoff race. The Jets did just that last week, and what we thought was an offense that was finally meshing just in time to take control of the AFC East was easily shut down by the league’s worst defense. New York’s defense is still as solid as ever, but the Band-aids have been ripped away from the kinks in the Jets’ offense and the fractures still haven’t healed. Denver, meanwhile, is enjoying the exact opposite trend. Counted out of the playoff race less than two weeks ago, the Broncos have been the benefactors of an entire division reeling and are now just a game out of first. John Fox finally wised up and let Tebow do Tebow’s thing (run the ball, win games, polarize America, etc.) and the Broncos have a chance for their first statement win (and home win) of the Tebow era.

Denver Broncos: 21-17

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4):

In the past four games, the Titans have gone from being demolished by the Texans on their own field to demolishing Cam Newton and the Panthers on their home field. True, Chris Johnson seems to have finally woken up, but that doesn’t explain how a defense that seemed to be on the edge of falling apart managed to shut down the league’s most dynamic rookie. Meanwhile, Atlanta, who was previously a lockdown choice at home, has dropped 3-of-5, including the overtime loss to New Orleans last week. It doesn’t matter the outcome, Mike Smith made the right call. He had the home-field advantage, a good quarterback and would have been relying on a sieve of a defense had he punted. It just didn’t work. He won’t need to make that call this week, though. Unless Johnson goes for 200, the Titans are not going to hand Atlanta its second home loss in as many weeks.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3):

This isn’t the way it was supposed to work for Newton. The Panthers were supposed to come off a bye full of energy, ready to whip up on the Titans before hitting the meat of their schedule. Now, they’re the whipping boys, and they’re walking into Ford Field to play a team that looks more ready to murder the opposing team than take the field against it. Speaking of which, Schwartz had this issue in Tennessee. Both he and former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher bred that kind of living-on-the-edge attitude (see Cortland Finnegan) on the defense, and while it took Tennessee to a 13-3 record in ’08, it also resulted in a complete collapse against the Steelers in the playoffs. Schwartz seemed to have hit that same road block against Chicago last week. For Matt Stafford’s part, he should be suspended. He instigated the brawl with a viciously cheap move and deserved his payback (although I’m not condoning that either. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise). If Detroit has any hopes of surviving a nuclear meltdown, Schwartz better have the off-field issues settled before Sunday.

Detroit Lions: 31-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6):

Jacksonville looks like a team that’s shocked to have won three games, while Cleveland is doing its best to show it too can have a shot at Andrew Luck if it wants. Both sides feature anemic offenses, although both run games have some upside. However, I would not advise keeping the TV on CBS if this is your regional game.

Cleveland Browns: 17-12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (9-0):

Sometimes good teams get blown out. They’re on the road, they have a bad game, and it’s really just a one-time thing. Good teams do not get blown out twice in one season, with the second one coming at home. The playing ability of the Bucs has managed to disappear in less than a year’s time, but a lot of this is the coaching. Given the offensive weapon LeGarette Blount is, the fact that he’s averaging nowhere near 20 carries per game is mind boggling. For instance, Raheem Morris should just look at Green Bay. That’s an offense in sync. He should get a good, long look this weekend.

Green Bay Packers: 34-17

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7):

Buffalo didn’t exactly pass its two-week test (OK, two blowouts is a failure), but strangely enough, it’s still very much alive in the wild-card chase. Unfortunately, now the Bills have to deal with a resurgent Miami team being led by former castoff Reggie Bush. (The Dolphins have a way with washed-up running backs, don’t they?) Buffalo doesn’t seem like the type of team to take two beatings in a row while lying down, but it’s hard to see any fire in this team right now. Miami actually seems like it’s playing with a purpose and finally figured out the secret to winning at home, which is gonna make Buffalo’s task extremely difficult this week.

Miami Dolphins: 27-17

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7):

Carson Palmer couldn’t have timed his comeback any better, hitting his stride just as the rest of the AFC West is falling down around him. The Vikings…well, Christian Ponder looks good for next year at least. Adrian Peterson should have a fun time gashing the Raiders porous run D, but the Vikings just have too little on pass coverage to slow down Carson Palmer at this point.

Oakland Raiders: 24-20

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6):

I’m not picking the Skins anymore. They just embarrass me.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-14

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3):

Considering the defenses Andy Dalton faces in the AFC North, he’s doing incredibly well for being tossed in the fire. (Get it, ‘cause he’s a redhead? No? OK…) Unfortunately for the Bengals, dynasties usually don’t change overnight, and that includes taking complete control of a division after almost a decade of ineptitude. And can Baltimore please make up its mind? The Ravens are causing me and a lot of other “experts” a ton of headaches with their beat-down-the-good-guy-lose-to-the-bad-guy act. Lucky for them, that bad loss already came and Cincinnati is good right now, so all the right Ravens players should show up. Should.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-23

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-7):

Apparently, the Hawks found a game plan. Give the ball to Marshawn Lynch. A lot. With Lynch back in the lineup, Seattle managed to completely control Baltimore last week. Of course, this is the same team that almost beat Atlanta in Atlanta, but then lost to Cleveland 6-3. Meanwhile, if a 2-7 team can be considered hot, the Rams are just that. Cleveland held the Rams to only 13 last week, which is what the Browns do, but the Rams’ offense is looking much improved in recent weeks. Sam Bradford is starting to hit his passes, and Stephen Jackson has channeled his old self. Unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are improving just a little bit fast at this point.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-16

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1):

Guess which division has the best record over the last two weeks? Yup, it’s the NFC West, just like we all would’ve predicted. Everyone’s winning over there right now, but too bad that has to come to an end. Arizona got lucky to play the floundering Eagles last week, but the 49ers won’t be the same story. Alex Smith looks better by the game, and the Niners proved that even if Frank Gore goes down, they still have plenty of weapons. San Francisco should just about wrap up the division this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-16

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3):

I know December is the Chargers’ month, but I did not see this free fall coming. Philip Rivers is looking like the most dangerous (in masochistic terms) quarterback in football right now, and Ryan Mathews is coming off an injury at the wrong time. The Bears defense has gelled, their offensive line has figured out how to block, and Devin Hester is … well, Devin Hester. Chicago has a huge risk of a letdown after how emotional their game with Detroit got last week, but it shouldn’t be too hard to overcome against the reeling Chargers.

Chicago Bears: 27-21

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3):

I’m gonna stop picking the Eagles too. It’s pointless to explain the abilities of this team, because at the end of the day, it simply can’t win. Meanwhile, even in after a loss, people spend the week talking about how good Eli Manning’s comeback abilities are. Doesn’t bode well for the Eagles.

New York Giants: 28-14

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3):

The Chiefs stumbled their way through the easiest part of their schedule, finishing at a resounding 0-2 for the last two weeks, and now they face a reinvigorated Patriots team that lost for the first time in Foxborough, where they’re coming off their first home loss in years. The Chiefs may keep it a battle, if they can get the passing game going, especially against the league’s worst defense, but it’s going to be too much for him to handle alone.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Week 10 NFL Predictions

I dislike Thursday night games. Not for any particular reason, other than it means I can’t be lazy about my writing, and I just really don’t like having to be un-lazy. But it couldn’t come at a better week. I need to forget about last week and my picks. That was just a painful performance (though SI’s Peter King went 5-9, so it could be a lot worse).

I’m not going to do a midseason award section, but since every team has officially reached its midway point, some players need to get some recognition for what they’ve done. Aaron Rodgers is a clear runaway for MVP, but he has competition from both Drew Brees and Tom Brady (though that’s quickly flagging) for possibly the best season by a QB in NFL history. Lesean McCoy has quietly taken control of the league and Matt Forte is about 60 percent of the reason the Bears are still in playoff contention. Calvin Johnson is proving everyone just how elite he is, and Steve Smith’s quiet resurgence might just be the best story no one’s heard about. DeMarcus Ware is playing like a man possessed and Patrick Willis has seems to multiply by 11 every time the 49ers’ defense takes the field.

All right, onto Week 10:

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 64-33

Oakland Raiders (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-4):

I wanna say the AFC West is a mess, but that’s not true. The entire AFC is a mess. Both Oakland and Kansas City had a shot to take control in the division, and neither one took advantage, losing to the two worst teams in the AFC, and now one of those teams, Denver, is firmly back in the West’s division race. Carson Palmer is being ripped in the media enough, but – and granted, I didn’t actually get to see the game – he threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns in his first start after coming straight out of retirement. That seems pretty effective to me. It’s not like Palmer had six months to build a rapport with these receivers. That said, what are the odds that Philip Rivers throws away another game in the fourth? … OK, maybe not too low, but San Diego isn’t going to lose three in a row, especially at home, especially to a division rival that’s hurting in every department right now. Ryan Mathews is back (again), and San Diego’s a different team with him.

San Diego Chargers: 31-17

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-6):

The Titans haven’t been horrible in their last month of play, but they simply haven’t been quite good enough to win. And to be good enough to win here, they have to shut down one of the most phenomenal rookies we’ve seen in years, after Cam Newton has been given two weeks to expand his playbook knowledge even further. Maybe Tennessee can keep up if Chris Johnson can stay hot for two straight weeks, but we’ve all seen enough of CJ to know that’s not a guarantee.

Carolina Panthers: 27-24

Detroit Lions (6-2) at Chicago Bears (5-3):

The last time these two played, Detroit was on its way to a 5-0 start, and Chicago looked to be out of the wild card race, as well as the divisional one, with its 2-3 start. Winners of three straight and having just shot down the explosive Eagles, the Bears are one game behind the Lions and have an excellent chance to close that gap Sunday. If Philadelphia wasn’t a fluke, and Chicago’s offensive line can actually keep Cutler standing in the pocket, Detroit’s in trouble. The Lions had no answer for Cutler’s passes (but an answer for everything else) in October, and it was a fully healthy and functional Jahvid Best that shredded the Bear defense. Now, Best is questionable, Detroit’s offense as a whole has stagnated, while its opportunistic defense is seeing fewer and fewer opportunities. Chicago’s about to make things interesting in the North.

Chicago Bears: 23-20

New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3):

Atlanta’s followed a path similar to Chicago’s, once left for dead in the NFC South race, and now just a half-game behind, with a chance to take the lead this Sunday. Granted, it was against the hapless Colts, but the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem seems to have finally clicked, Michael Turner just can’t be stopped and the Falcons’ D is starting to return to 2010 form. Plus, Matt Ryan doesn’t like losing in Atlanta. I guess it’s a grudge he bears for getting whipped them game after game in college. The Saints aren’t playing bad football themselves, and statistically, Drew Brees is simply amazing this year. But it’s only Drew Brees. New Orleans has yet to establish a solid running game, with most of its yards out of the backfield coming on Darren Sproles screen passes. Brees will get his 250-300 yards, but the Falcons should have fun forcing a few turnovers this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-24

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2):

Can anyone in the AFC stay consistent this year? As yet, only Cincinnati seems to have avoided falling prey to the AFC-wide trend, with Pittsburgh being the latest victim. A week after thrashing the Patriots, Pittsburgh turned around and gave away the sweep to Baltimore, at home. Roethlisberger didn’t look bad, but the run game has become anemic and the defense seemed to simply be beaten down by the end of the night. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they win games on defense. Andy Dalton has turned several heads (deservedly so) this season, but you can bet Dick LeBeau and Mike Tomlin have had a few choice words to inspire this Steelers defense. Look for Cincinnati to become the next inconsistency victim this year and muddy the AFC picture just a little bit more.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 21-17

St. Louis Rams (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)

Some 90 percent of the country got to watch either Green Bay-San Diego or New York-New England on Fox last week. I got stuck watching St. Louis-Arizona. And by stuck, I mean I got bored at half-time. Apparently, that’s when things got exciting, but oh well. I don’t regret the decision, and I’m not going to hold out hope this week. Sam Bradford is back, as should be Danario Alexander, so the Rams should stay competitive, but this is Cleveland’s home turf, and the Browns are not a bad team on either side of the ball, simply stuck with injuries and a really good division.

Cleveland Browns: 24-13

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4):

Remember how I said I didn’t see the Bills actually making the playoffs this year? Yeah, that projection started a week early, with the egg lain against the Jets. Dallas isn’t going to make it any easier. Ryan Fitzpatrick struggles against defenses where he’s required to make big plays, and that’s exactly what Ware and Co. are going to make him do. Dallas’ run defense has been porous lately, but look for Rob Ryan to focus on making adjustments to that with Fred Jackson coming into town. DeMarco Murray has been a godsend to the Cowboys with their rash of injuries, and he should play a critical role this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 30-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-9):

This is it. If the Colts are going to have a chance to break their winless streak, it will be Week 10 versus the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Indianapolis just looks worse and worse as the year progresses, and Jacksonville has had a week to get healthy and prepare for this game. Maurice Jones-Drew alone would probably be enough to beat these Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-10

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4):

Tim Tebow just won’t go away. But he also won’t stick around, fluctuating between good and bad so often, he makes Brett Favre’s retirement decisions seem logical. Unfortunately, the Broncos can’t do much more than run the ball with Tebow under center. Willis McGahee had a career day last week (which sucked for this of us who forced to play Knowshon Moreno in fantasy), but don’t expect the Chiefs to allow the same kind of yardage, especially after getting gashed by Reggie Bush and the Dolphins at home last week. The Broncos have a chance to pull even with two other AFC West teams, but this is the closest they’ll get. They simply have too many questions to answer to compete with an improving Chiefs team.

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-14

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (1-7):

Looking back at my picks, it really seems like I have a ton of faith in the Redskins. That’s not true. I just don’t have that much faith in their opposition. The same holds true this week. The Skins are anemic on offense, incapable of finding the end zone, but their defense is just as staunch as it’s been all season. The Dolphins are on a hot streak (I can say that after breaking a seven-game losing streak, right?), but they have plenty to answer for, and seem to have a fondness for losing at home.

Washington Redskins: 17-10

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5):

This shouldn’t be close. Philadelphia played a good game against Chicago but simply couldn’t find a way to win. Arizona played a good game against the Rams, but would have lost were it not for a few key plays. These are two teams going in completely opposite directions.

Philadelphia Eagles: 37-14

Houston Texans (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4):

Tampa Bay, meet the AFC. You both have a lot in common, namely that you can’t decide whether to be really good or really bad this year. Aside from an embarrassment in San Fran earlier in the year, Tampa Bay has been solidly a little bit above average. Josh Freeman just can’t be clutch, and LeGarette Blount is as good as last year, but for some reason, the coaching staff just doesn’t seem to be willing to put its faith in him. Andre Johnson looks iffy for the Texans again, and while Arian Foster has been the answer to everything, Houston’s going to need its offense firing on all cylinders to walk out of Tampa Bay with a win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-20

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-6):

Speaking of teams going in the opposite direction … If it weren’t for Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks might very well be winless right now. Of course, if it weren’t for Ray Rice, Baltimore might be 2-6, rather than 6-2. Baltimore’s got a lot more assets than a running back though, and the Ravens should simply impose their will on Seattle Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-13

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1):

I keep expecting San Francisco to have a let-down game, and I keep being proven wrong. It’s shocking how well Jim Harbaugh has been impressive in turning around the Niners on such short notice, but he’s not doing anything magical. San Fran had a good defense last year, and Frank Gore has always been a great back. Harbaugh focused on those assets, and all of a sudden San Francisco is a contender. New York is in the same boat, with the same tools it’s had for years, but this team is looking as good as it’s been since mid-2008. Eli is the reason “clutch” can finally be associated with the Manning name, and he’s finding near-miraculous ways to do so. If you get a chance to watch this game, don’t change the channel. It should be great from start to finish, but San Fran’s defense should be just enough to hold off New York.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-14

New England Patriots (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3):

It’s not quite time to hit the panic button in New England, but the finger should be on it right now. That absurdly efficient defense we all watch through the first four games of the season is nowhere to be found now, and they’re coming up against the Jets at the wrong time, as New York seems to finally be clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots’ defense is much improved from earlier in the year, but the Brady and Welker show has to reestablish itself to keep New England in contention, which it won’t be doing.

New York Jets: 27-24

Minnesota Vikings (2-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-0):

Christian Ponder performed well against Green Bay in his first official start, but now that the Packers have a bead on him, and the Frozen Tundra as well, things won’t be so easy for Minnesota. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is as hot as any quarterback has ever been in league history. This could ugly fast.

Green Bay Packers: 31-10

Week 7 NFL Predictions

Well, last week, I made the mistake of convincing myself that I would write this while I was on break. I was wrong. So the new goal is to get this one done before I leave for the weekend. That should work better.

Anyway, this week was a little boring. The Tim Tebow and Christian Ponder eras seem to have officially begun, the Dolphins, Rams and Colts continue their furious race for Andrew Luck, and while some may have been disappointed, I don’t think anyone was surprised that the Niners knocked the Lions from the ranks of the unbeatens. Of course, then you have the post-game handshake. I don’t understand the NFL’s logic in not fining Jim Schwartz or John Harbaugh, but when the leaders of two teams that may well be the faces of your league for the near future come inches from physical conflict, something has to be done. The NFL made a mistake in not punishing the coaches, and the coaches are making a mistake in acting like children, rather than manning up and apologizing. That being said, let’s get on to Week 7. It’s not just new QBs that are mixing things up this week.

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 39-19

Houstan Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2):

I didn’t have the chance to do more than checking the score on the Texans-Ravens game last week, but from the looks of it, Baltimore had things wrapped up against Houston for most of the game. That’s not surprising, given that Houston’s one offensive danger right now (Arian Foster) was going up against Baltimore’s strongest aspect (run defense). Houston faces a similar situation here. Tennessee may still be struggling to figure its offense out, but the defense seems to be having no issues, and another week without Andre Johnson in an opponent’s stadium is going to knock Houston back in the AFC South race even further. The Texans aren’t out of that race just yet … they’re just not in it right now, either.

Tennessee Titans: 24-17

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1):

Both teams have to be looking at this game as a must-win. The Falcons have to prove they can get back on track inside their division, and the Lions need to take at least one-of-two in this two-game stretch to show that this isn’t a repeat of 2007. Matt Stafford has to get over himself, though. He’s looked jittery in nearly every first half this season, and after registering the safety last week, he couldn’t seem to make up his mind about what to do next. The Falcons’ D should offer a lighter test than last week, but he’ll still feel pressure. Atlanta’s defense has to perform, though. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been getting the job done on offense, but they simply cannot win when they have to score 35 points per game, especially when they’re walking into Ford Field and Ndamukong Suh and Co. are going to be chasing Ryan all day long.

Detroit Lions: 28-17

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3):

This could very well be the battle for the last chance to have a .500 record for these two. Thanks to a surprising start by the 49ers, both teams seem all but eliminated from playoff contention and are now just trying to be respectable. The Seahawks’ newfound passing attack, aided by a healthy Sidney Rice and previously unknown Doug Baldwin – seriously, nfl.com doesn’t even have a profile page on this game – looks dangerous at times. Cleveland, on the other hand, has managed to field a fairly effective defense, while an offense that looked just a little talent away from exploding last year is now sputtering along. As evenly matched as these two teams are, though, edge has to the home-field advantage and a, hopefully, now-healthy running back tandem in Cleveland.

Cleveland Browns: 21-20

Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5):

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say Denver did this on purpose. Tebow will be recording his first start just a few miles south of where he helped lead Florida to two national championships in college. Odds are, half the fans at Sun Life Stadium will be there to watch Tebow, not the Phins. The Broncos lost Brandon Lloyd to a trade during the week, which will hurt, but Miami can’t know exactly what to expect from Denver’s offense this week. The Broncos’ porous D should help keep Miami in the game, but it just doesn’t have enough weapons to keep up with Denver (which is really sad, by the way).

Denver Broncos: 31-20

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3):

The Jets still look shaky, at least on offense, but the defense has been as reliable as any in the league so far. San Diego has won game after game of close calls, against opponents it should’ve handled. Philip Rivers is consistent as always, but the defense will have to make a statement game against Mark Sanchez and all his playmakers in the Meadowlands. And that’s just not going to happen.

New York Jets: 24-21

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2):

Back to the grinder for Chicago. This team can’t seem to get two weeks’ respite from one of the toughest schedules in the NFC. The Bears demolished Minnesota on primetime, scoring in just about every way possible, but that was an unraveling Vikings team. This is a Buccaneers team that suffered its biggest humiliation in years two weeks ago and has to still be trying to erase that loss from their minds. LeGarette Blount’s probably still out for the Bucs, but the running game, if anything, seemed to pick up last week. Add to that, Josh Freeman seems to finally be returning to 2010 form, and the Bears are gonna have a hard time keeping up with Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-17

Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5):

I said Miami was going to lose because it wouldn’t know how to handle a new quarterback. This time, I think Washington is going to lose because it’s using a new quarterback. One reason why is the reason for the change. In Washington, it’s almost a turnstile system. Mike Shanahan did this with Donovan Mcnabb and Rex Grossman last year, and now he’s doing it with Grossman and John Beck this year. Teams don’t sync well when they have to alternate between two quarterbacks, which puts the pressure on Washington’s defense – although it’s a very good D – to handle things. However, even if Washington’s offense does move the ball, let’s be honest: Carolina’s D isn’t getting any worse. It just … can’t. Carolina’s offense, though, has kept the Panthers in every game, even ones they had no right to contend in. That’s thanks to Cam Newton, who continues to impress despite being the only consistent weapon Carolina has.

Carolina Panthers: 30-21

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2):

Jason Campbell going down for six weeks is painful for everyone. Campbell’s loss may have just cost him a career starter spot, simply because Oakland’s best option was to bring in a former Pro Bowl quarterback. Oakland’s playoff chances are hurt, because it’s signed an out-of-football quarterback and expects him to learn a whole bunch of plays and be ready to start within five days. Against the league’s worst, that’d be hard enough. Against Kansas City, which is coming off a bye and seems to have finally found a running game – which is the one thing Oakland has trouble stopping, keep in mind – it’s going to take a monumental performance by Carson Palmer to keep the Raiders’ win streak going here.

Kansas City Chiefs: 21-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4):

Arizona has looked better in recent weeks. Kevin Kolb seems to finally be getting comfortable, and Beanie Wells is simply coming alive. But Pittsburgh’s offense finally seems to meshing, and the charges that Pitt’s defense seems to old are long in the past. Arizona should have no trouble keeping this a close game, but if Troy Polamalu does play, Pittsburgh just has too much of an advantage here.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 31-20

St. Louis Rams (0-5) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3):

I’d be willing to bet that St. Louis got a steal with Brandon Lloyd for a max fifth-round pick. When Danny Amendola returns next year, Sam Bradford is gonna have a nearly unstoppable receiving tandem. Problem is, that’s next year, not this year. Lloyd should be able to get going immediately, but the Rams have way too many issues to fix right now. Tony Romo and the Cowboys have this thing about giving up late-game leads, but Rob Ryan’s defense isn’t going to let this become a game, and Romo should have a week to almost relax before getting back to choking up big games.

Dallas Cowboys: 28-13

Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5):

I think it’s funny how San Francisco’s whipping on Tampa Bay was a statement game for the 49ers, while the Bears whipping of the Vikings, on primetime, was just a sign of Minnesota’s unraveling. True, it’s probably because Minnesota is much worse than Tampa Bay, but it’s still amusing. The Vikings, on paper, should not be this bad. Their rush defense is nearly as good as ever, and they have always been a run-oriented team. True, “inept” is an understatement when it comes to Minnesota’s passing game, the Vikings seem to have enough pieces to still salvage a respectable season. Of course … that’s when they’re not playing Aaron Rodgers. In a dome.

Green Bay Packers: 27-24

Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2):

The Colts are incredibly lucky at this point. They don’t even have to try to throw these games, because they just keep facing the NFL’s best, nearly week after week. It puts them in perfect position for the Luck Sweepstakes (though I still think disregarding Peyton Manning is a mistake). The Saints have been looking suspect for weeks now, and Tampa Bay managed to expose just enough problems for a win. Indianapolis probably won’t have the same luxury, especially since Sean Payton should be around for the fourth-quarter playcalls this week. New Orleans needs to fix those cracks quick, if it wants to hold onto its playoff spot, though.

New Orleans Saints: 34-17

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5):

Poor NFL. It just cannot catch a break with these primetime games. None of them are working out like normal. True, Jacksonville is at home this week, but when the team can’t seem to sell out its games at rock-bottom prices, that doesn’t really count. The Jags have a decent defense, but odds are, the Ravens defense will be outscoring most offenses this week. It’s a perfect matchup for Baltimore, and it’s not gonna be pretty.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-3