NFL Predictions - Week 17

So I wasn’t gonna do picks this week, since the final week tends to be a crapshoot with a  bunch of benched starters, but then I realized: This week is gonna rock. So here’s some last seconds picks to, hopefully, make up for my forgetting about last week (whoops).

 

Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11):

Carolina Panthers: 17-14

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5):

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-14

 

Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9):

Tennessee Titans: 24-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5):

Indianapolis Colts: 27-17

 

New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7):

Miami Dolphins: 24-20

 

Detroit Lions (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1):

Minnesota Vikings: 31-24

 

Washington Redskins (3-12) at New York Giants (6-9):

New York Giants: 31-27

 

Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8):

Pittsburgh Steelers: 30-27

 

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7):

Green Bay Packers: 37-30

 

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11):

Denver Broncos: 38-24

 

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4):

New England Patriots: 27-13

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (10-5):

New Orleans Saints: 30-20

 

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5):

Arizona Cardinals: 23-17

 

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7):

San Diego Chargers: 30-23

 

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3):

Seattle Seahawks: 30-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-7):

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-28

 

NFL Predictions - Week 15

Last Week: 13-3

Overall: 132-75-1

 

Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10):

Washington can officially be classified as a dumpster fire now. Whether you believe the Shanahanigans going on are an attempt to save Mike’s job or actually a benevolent approach to preserve the future potential of this team, the current result is the same: This team’s season is over. Kirk Cousins will get the start, and he may even perform respectably in Griffin’s stead, but there’s little room for optimism in a win for this team. As bad as the Falcons have been this year – injury bug sucks when you have no depth – even a great showing by Cousins won’t hide the fact that the Skins simply can’t play defense. With the Falcons’ offense finally starting to heal up, look for Atlanta to put up numbers Washington simply can’t keep up with.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

 

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Brown (4-9):

This matchup is odd. Cleveland is a bit bipolar, getting blown out against Detroit, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the last two months, while losing squeakers against Kansas City, Jacksonville and New England. These Browns match up extremely well against a run defense that couldn’t stop a high school attack, and Josh Gordon is more than enough to shred any secondary at this point. However, what used to be a solid Browns defense simply hasn’t shown up since a Week 9 win against Baltimore. This game will come down to whether the Browns can force enough plays on defense to allow their offense to scrape a couple touchdowns together. With Jay Cutler’s return, and likely need to shake off the rust, it should be able to do exactly that.

Cleveland Browns: 27-24

 

Houston Texans (2-11) at Indianapolis Colts (8-5):

I don’t have exact numbers for this, but it seems that every time a talented, but winless, team loses its head coach, it tends to catch fire over the remaining weeks of the season, and Houston is nothing if not talented. With depth at almost every skill position on offense, Houston should have no problem’s scoring against an injury-ravaged Colts defense. However, the Andrew Luck factor against a terribly weakened Houston defense is likely going to be too great to overcome this week. TY Hilton destroyed the Texans defense last time these two teams met, and expect a similar result this time.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-20

 

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6):

The loss of Gronkowski is a devastating blow to the Patriots’ title hopes to be sure, and the change on Vegas odds reflects that (the spread was only 2.5 in favor of New England at the time of this). However, after Gronk went down Sunday, the Patriots figured out how to get its offense running through Shane Vereen, and with the re-emergence of Julian Edelman and LeGarette Blount, Tom Brady should have enough targets to prevent another shaky start this week. Miami, on the other side, is scoring points in bunches. Daniel Thomas came back from injury and promptly gashed the Steelers’ run D, while Mike Wallace and Charles Clay are starting expose opposing secondaries. The problem here is that Bill Belichick knows the Dolphins as well as anyone, and with a chance to seal the division on the line, it’s hard to see Joe Philbin outcoaching Belichick this week.

New England Patriots: 27-24

 

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1):

Obviously, no Adrian Peterson and a doubtful Toby Gerhart will have a huge impact on this Minnesota offense. However, with Matt Cassel under center, the Vikings have been able to move the ball consistently and make use of rookie weapon Cordarelle Patterson, something Minnesota will surely try to use much more this week to mask the loss of AD, and against a Philly defense that’s stout against the run but incredibly susceptible to the pass, it’s a recipe that could give the Eagles fits this week. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings seem to have quietly improved, holding the Bears to 20 points two weeks ago, then holding the Ravens to seven points in the first 57:55 of last week’s game. However, what Minnesota has been susceptible to is the big play, giving up two huge Alshon Jeffery TDs versus Chicago and too many plays to count at Baltimore. Philadelphia feasts on the big play, and Minnesota will have to find ways to cut those down if it wants a chance this game.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-24

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8):

That the Giants have shown marked improvement in the second half of the season is something that’s hard to deny, but despite shaking off an 0-6 start, New York simply hasn’t been able to string together any sort of consistency, and that’s a weakness that’s going to exposed this week against the NFL’s model of consistency. The Seahawks defense has been ferocious these last few weeks and, hiccup at San Francisco aside, the offense has been nearly as good. The return of Andre Brown has allowed New York more flexibility on offense, but it won’t be enough to cut through Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks: 21-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):

One of the hottest teams in the NFL the last month, the Buccaneers (you heard me) has been absolute monsters at home, beating a solid Miami team and destroying Atlanta and Buffalo. The next-man-up philosophy at running back has paid dividends, with Bobby Rainey seamlessly replacing Mike James a month ago, and Mike Glennon continues to show improvement, transitioning from a QB who could only use Vincent Jackson as a safety blanket, to one who’s been spreading the field evenly over the Bucs’ tear. However, as a trip to Carolina showed, this team isn’t set up yet to deal with the NFL’s top tier, which San Francisco belongs to. A middling run defense, coupled with a pretty bad pass defense, going up against Frank Gore and a Kaep attack who finally has all his weapons healthy, is a hard team to beat.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Buffalo Bills (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9):

Hilariously, the once-moribund Jaguars hold the longest win streak in the AFC, and no two 4-9 teams could ever look more different. Plagued by injuries, the Buffalo Bills just haven’t been able to find a rhythm this season, while the Jaguars under Chad Henne have finally managed to find a balanced attack, while the defense, still not good, has managed to stop looking dreadful, at least. Buffalo, for its part, now has a fully functional running game, which should keep the Bills alive this week, but with a defense that can only succeed by forcing turnovers, it’s unlikely the Bills will be able to create enough separation to win this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-20

 

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9):

The Chiefs defense woke up last week in a big way. A unit that had been ravaged in recent weeks by Denver and San Diego managed to thoroughly overwhelm Washington – who is struggling, granted – in almost every facet possible. Traveling to Oakland will be a slightly stiffer test, but Matt McGloin is not nearly the dynamic QB that Terrelle Pryor is, and the absence of Denarius Moore will continue to weaken this squad. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles should be nearly unstoppable this week against a middle-of-the-road defense that simply won’t be able to make the big plays necessary to slow the Chiefs down.

Kansas City Chiefs: 23-13

 

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4):

This is gonna get ugly. The Jets continue to hang around in the wildcard talk, but New York has been incapable of putting together a halfway decent performance on the road this year, and against a ferocious Panthers defense that’s coming off its worst loss of the season, I don’t see things looking up for New York. Look for the Panthers secondary and the Cam Newton passing attack to light up the scoreboard this week.

Carolina Panthers: 37-20

 

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6):

Somehow, the Packers are still in the playoff discussion, despite Aaron Rodgers’ return being pushed back week by week. However, a 1-4-1 record without him (and that win coming at home against the Falcons) don’t exactly speak wonders for Green Bay’s ability to keep up with Dallas this week. The Cowboys’ defense is atrocious, nearly as bad as the Saints were last year, but Matt Flynn simply has not been able to kickstart this offense. With Eddie Lacy at best a shadow of himself this week, even Dallas shouldn’t have too much trouble slowing down the Packers.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-21

 

Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8):

What’s been a hallmark under Mike Munchak’s tenure at Tennessee is that the Titans can beat the bad teams, can run with the good teams and they get hammered by the great teams. Arizona isn’t a great team, but it’s more than good, with a passing attack that’s been unstoppable the last few weeks and a defense that, on paper, looks as good as any in the league right now. Home-field advantage, an inability by the Cardinals to guard the tight end, and a mistake-free Ryan Fitzpatrick could give the Titans a chance to pull off the upset this week, but given this team’s inability to close out the fourth quarter, it’s unlikely.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-20

 

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8):

The Rams have, at times, looked like they could beat anyone in the NFL, and at other times have simply not shown up to the field. The emergence of Zac Stacy and Tavon Austin have more than made up for the loss of Sam Bradford earlier in the season, but the offense as a whole just has not been consistent this year. Additionally, the Rams’ young playmakers won’t have the experience to shake off the kinds of blitzes and packages Rob Ryan’s defense will have prepared heading into this week, and a Drew Brees-led offense that carved up one of the NFL’s best defenses last week will likely have no trouble going through a much weaker Rams defense.

New Orleans Saints: 34-24

 

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8):

Last year, the Bengals only had one real offensive threat: Throw it to AJ Green. This year, however, Andy Dalton’s steady improvement, combined with the dynamic play of Giovani Bernard and the rest of the Bengals’ receiving corps, has allowed Cinci to hang points on just about everyone (scoring 40+ in three of their last four wins), while a defense that’s suffered a couple of serious setbacks continues to shut down opponents (giving up 20 or fewer in five of its last games). Combine the two, and you have a Cincinnati team that has quietly moved into the NFL’s elite class, no small feat given the ferocity of the rivalries in this division. However, it’s that rivalry that could be a problem this week. Pittsburgh is on another two-game slump coming off a game that it had no right to win but really should have. The Steelers offense has been nearly unstoppable lately; it’s ironically the aging defense that has slowed this Steelers squad down. However, another primetime slot against a division rival with the remainder of its playoff hopes on the line should give Mike Tomlin all he needs to get this squad fired up this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6):

Even though it seems like the Lions have stumbled their way into the class of the NFC North, somehow Detroit hasn’t managed to close out the division. A tiebreaker over Chicago and a half-game separate Detroit from first and third (and no playoffs). The blizzard in Philadelphia was somewhat of a fluke, something a dome team isn’t going to handle as well as a northern, outdoor team like Philly, especially with one of its best playmakers sidelined. Meanwhile, the Ravens have quietly assumed control of the AFC’s wild card race, winning four of five. The run game is still virtually nonexistent, but Joe Flacco and the defense have made the plays necessary to keep this team alive. The Lions’ offense has more than enough talent to blow the Ravens defense out of the water, and thanks to an offensive line that simply can’t create holes for Ray Rice, Detroit should easily be able to sit back and force the Ravens into a one-dimensional, passing attack. That said, this is a Lions team that’s struggled with discipline all season long and fails to get going until it absolutely needs to. The Lions should pull out the must-win this week, but look for Baltimore to keep it close.

Detroit Lions: 30-27

Chargers-Broncos Prediction - Week 15

San Diego Chargers (6-7) at Denver Broncos (11-2):

The last time these two met, the Broncos pulled out a squeaker by their standards, winning by eight in San Diego. In that game, the Chargers tried a different tactic versus the Broncos: running. They ran 35 times, averaging a mere 3.7 YPC, and allowed Denver to keep aerial threats Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates largely in check. This time, though, San Diego won’t have that luxury. Playing a division game in a  raucous Sports Authority Field means the Chargers will likely fall behind fast and trying to force the run against a Broncos defense that’s allowing just under 100 YPG is the kind of formula that might drop San Diego by four touchdowns, all but ending their season altogether. Philip Rivers has shown he’s up to the task, obliterating Kansas City on the road a couple weeks back, but a Chargers defense that allowed 300 yards and a couple touchdowns to Alex Smith is more than likely going to be completely incapable of slowing Peyton Manning down.

Denver Broncos: 45-34

NFL Predictions - Week 14

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 119-72-1

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-17

 

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

Atlanta Falcons: 24-21

 

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

New England Patriots: 31-23

 

Oakland Raider (4-8) at New York Jet (5-7)

New York Jets: 20-17

 

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

Philadelphia Eagles: 27-24

 

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 24-13

 

Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 23-20

 

Kansas City Chief (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-28

 

Miami Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Baltimore Ravens: 28-13

 

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

Denver Broncos: 34-24

 

St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5)

Arizona Cardinals: 34-13

 

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

San Francisco 49ers: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3):

New Orleans Saints: 27-20

 

Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6):

Chicago Bears: 31-28

Texans-Jaguars Prediction - Week 14

Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9):

As bad as these teams’ records indicate, both these teams are in a somewhat surprising situation, in that neither truly looks like a terrible team anymore. Jacksonville is in the midst of a two-game win streak and posted a 3-1 record in November, while Houston has lost by a touchdown or less in each of its last games – home game vs. Jacksonville included. The Texans under Case Keenum have found an offensive rhythm they’d lost under Matt Schaub in his last few weeks as a starter, and Ben Tate’s explosion against the Patriots was enough to keep the Texans ahead for much of last week. The defense, however, is still atrocious, and at Jacksonville, it may be enough to allow the Jaguars’ steadily improving offense to take off. That said, Houston has been riding close to victory for two months now, and eventually the Texans will break through.

Houston Texans: 27-24

NFL Predictions -- Week 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Cleveland Browns (4-7):

Cleveland Browns: 24-17

 

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4):

Indianapolis Colts: 27-23

 

Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1):

Chicago Bears: 31-28

 

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6):

New York Jets: 31-17

 

Arizona Cardinals (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-5):

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-30

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) at Carolina Panthers (8-3):

Carolina Panthers: 24-20

 

New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9):

New England Patriots: 34-20

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7):

Buffalo Bills: 31-28

 

St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4):

San Francisco 49ers: 20-17

 

Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2):

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-27

 

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6):

San Diego Chargers: 27-20

 

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8):

New York Giants: 24-20

 

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1):

New Orleans Saints: 23-20

NFL Predictions Week 13 - Thanksgiving Edition

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5):

Being a Lions fan, I strongly dislike the fact that Matt Flynn is starting in Aaron Rodgers’ place. He knows the system as well as any other QB the Packers have signed in recent years, and he has a wealth of receiving talent, as well as Eddie Lacy, to help carry the load. The Packers’ defense is still decimated and looking weaker by the week, which bodes well for Reggie Bush, who hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 against Dallas, and for Matthew Stafford, who’s looked shaky at best the last three weeks. However, the Lions has a whole have shown they’re struggling with the immense pressure that comes from leading the division, and this week won’t be any different.

Green Bay Packers: 34-31

 

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5):

The Cowboys have been playing .500 football for about as long as anyone can remember, but they did something they weren’t supposed to do last week: win. The win allows them to keep pace with the red-hot Eagles and gives them a shot at being two games over .500, which hasn’t happened yet this season. Tony Romo’s game-winning drive against New York showed a resolve the Cowboys have been lacking in the last month or so, and he managed to use nearly ever weapon at his disposal, including the almost-invisible Miles Austin. He’ll need that against a Raiders defense that, at times this season, has been lockdown (though have been a few … let’s call them slip-ups). Oakland has also managed to find the perfect formula to control the clock, relying on Matt McGloin to not make mistakes and on Rashard Jennings, and now Darren McFadden, to carry the bulk of the load. The Cowboys should take a step in the right direction today, but it won’t be easy.

Dallas Cowboys: 28-23

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6):

0-4 has to seem like an eternity ago for Steelers fans. For all the flak Mike Tomlin got for his “rules” in Pitt’s locker room, it seems to be working. Aside from a two-game slip to close out October, the Steelers have been nearly unstoppable, dominating the Jets and Ravens with suffocating defense, and assaulting the Bills, Lions and Browns through the air. Ray Rice looks like he got a jump start against Chicago two weeks ago, and Joe Flacco looked incredibly accurate on deep throws against the Jets, but this is a different beast. The Falcons are desperate, but Pittsburgh’s secondary won’t be giving up any wide-open 60-yard looks, and Rice is unlikely to gain much ground against a run defense that has gone from league’s worst to 11^th overall in less than six games.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-16

 

NFL Predictions - Week 12

Here’s one of the more impressive things I’ve ever seen: 11 weeks into the season, all 16 teams are still alive in the AFC race. Fifteen can still earn the 2 seed (yes, Houston’s a little bit unlikely, but it’s still possible), and 14 are within 1.5 games of a playoff spot. That, folks, is crazy. And awesome. The Jets, Ravens and Chargers all blew winnable game, leaving the Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Raiders and Titans still in the race as well. Meanwhile, what was supposed to look like a fairly cemented NFC race has blown into turmoil as well, with the Lions and Niners losing, while the Cardinals and Panthers just keep on winning, leaving six teams in contention for the two wild-card spots. Given all this, pretty much every game matters this weekend, which you have to love three-quarters of the way into the season. So here’s the way things should shape up:

 

Last Week: 11-4

Overall: 106-56-0

 

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8):

So I called the Falcons losing last week, but I didn’t foresee a blowout. I don’t think anyone did, given Bobby Rainey was the starting running back and the Bucs receiving situation is just as poor as the Falcons. But even with Roddy White back, a shaky Tony Gonzalez and Stephen Jackson pair have made it difficult for Matt Ryan to get things together, and the Saints’ stellar secondary is going to make life any easier for him this week. But as badly as the offense has been, the Falcons’ D has been worse. It hasn’t stopped a thing lately, and even at home on a short week, that trend is going to continue against a Saints’ offense that has been methodically destructive since its loss in New York last month.

New Orleans Saints: 31-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6):

I’m not sure which is more surprising: that the Steelers are officially back in the playoff race or that they’re looking to pass the Browns in the division race for the first time this year. While neither team at 2.5 games behind the Bengals is technically out of the division race, these two are realistically focusing on the final wild-card slot. Mike Tomlin has pulled every string and pushed every button to get the aging Steelers’ D to overachieve and Roethlisberger, as he’s done so often in the past, has put the team on his shoulders and simply willed them to victory. The win over Detroit last week was nice, but weather and some questionable decision-making on the Lions’ sidelines were huge factors, and this week they’ll face a Cleveland defense that should be able to shut down Antonio Brown with one guy (Joe Haden). AJ Green was targeted five times last week while Haden guarded him, and Haden had as many catches (two) as Green did. The question of this game comes on the other side of the ball, though. Cleveland’s not going to stop Pitt from putting up around 20 points, so can Jason Campbell face off against a solid pass defense that held Stafford to a near goose egg in the second half last week and put up points? My guess is no.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-17

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4):

I’m looking forward to this matchup. The Bucs are resurgent in recent weeks – though several of their early-season losses looked pretty good as well – and they’ll be going up against an atrocious Detroit secondary that simply can’t stop the pass. The issue there is that without Vincent Jackson, Mike Glennon has no passing attack, and it’s unlikely Bobby Rainey will be able to put up 150 yards and two touchdowns again this week against one of the most fearsome D-lines in the league. Given that Matt Stafford is going to have virtually no trouble picking apart the Bucs’ secondary and Reggie Bush will likely be looking to re-solidify his starting role, the Bucs should be able to keep things interesting, but simply won’t be able to stop the Lions’ firepower.

Detroit Lions: 34-28

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5):

Somehow this game both matters and should be fairly evenly matched. Problem is, Minnesota going into Lambeau with an ailing Adrian Peterson doesn’t exactly seem like a good idea. Scott Tolzien didn’t turn out to be the next Tom Brady, but he also threw for over 300 yards on the road against the Giants, and he and Jarrett Boykin have brought a chemistry to the team that was badly missing for the few quarters that Seneca Wallace started. Add Eddie Lacy into the mix and Minnesota simply has too many challenges to overcome this week.

Green Bay Packers: 31-19

 

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1):

The Chargers should be panicking right now. An incredibly favorable matchup against a Dolphins team that had far too much focus on non-football issues resulted in a loss where the team couldn’t even put two touchdowns on the board. This doesn’t bode well heading into the home stadium of the league’s best defense this week. The Chiefs, for their part, didn’t play terribly in Denver last week; they simply weren’t able to generate enough offense. However, the re-emergence of Dwayne Bowe should allow KC to take some stress off Jamaal Charles, which should allow Alex Smith to move up and down the field much more easily this week. For the Chargers’ part, they’ve focused on heavy usage from Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead in recent weeks and while it hasn’t been ineffective, the team has failed to put up meaningful points. If the Chargers win, they’ll need to do it by finding some soft spots in the Chiefs’ pass defense, which just won’t happen in Arrowhead.

Kansas City Chiefs: 27-20

 

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6):

The Rams may have only won four games this season, but they’ve won three of them in blowout fashion. Coming off a bye week and a 30-point win in Indy, the Bears will be facing a team that’s gotta be one of the most confident in the league. Tavon Austin finally realized his potential, Zac Stacy is simply unstoppable, and the pass defense has actually stepped up significantly in recent weeks. Unfortunately, it’s against the run game that the Rams seem to have problems (see losses to Carolina and Tennessee), and the Bears have about as well-rounded an offense as any in the league. Chicago’s defense has been atrocious recently, but if it comes down to a duel between Stacy and Matt Forte, history favors Forte.

Chicago Bears: 27-23

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5):

Miami managed to squeak by the Chargers last week, but that doesn’t fix any of its outstanding issues. With Pouncey injured, it’s still missing three starting offensive linemen, and will be facing a juggernaut of a defense in Carolina. Additionally, with the Panthers run game looking unstoppable and Cam Newton looking more and more like the elite decision-maker people were expecting, it’ll be hard for the Dolphins to find a way to keep up.

Carolina Panthers: 24-13

 

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6):

Weird State of the Week No. 2: The Jets became the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 weeks of its season. Unfortunately, that’s a streak the Jets really needed to snap at nine. The Ravens got a nice boost from a horrific run defense in Chicago, but despite being forced to a one-dimensional offense thanks to the weather, the Ravens were still able to lead for much of the game last week. Geno Smith, on the other hand, has no such experience on the road (unless we’re counting Atlanta, and nobody counts Atlanta at this point), which will make the Jets’ task doubly hard. The Ravens defense has been stellar at home, and with the recent demotion of Stephen Hill, it’s unlikely New York will find any playmakers to rise up and top the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens: 20-13

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8):

Ew. The one incredibly bright spot of this entire game is Case Keenum, but based on Gary Kubiak’s reaction last week, he doesn’t like shiny toys. Benching Keenum for Matt Schaub in the second half was not only a terrible move, it effectively turned everyone in Houston against both Kubiak and Schaub, permanently. A once-promising Houston franchise is now in turmoil, and Jacksonville, for its terrible team and record, still looks like it actually cares about every game it plays. Unfortunately, as bad as Houston has been, the Jaguars simply do not have the skill to walk into Houston, shut down Andre Johnson and Ben Tate, and be able to rely on Maurice John-Drews and Cecil Shorts to score enough points to win.

Houston Texans: 27-17

 

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (4-6):

The Titans and Raiders are both somehow, miraculously, still in the playoff hunt and thanks to the fact that one has to win (I think. Could be neither one wants to and we get a tie.), one of them will still be in the chase after this week. The Titans at points in this season have shown flashes of greatness, with a lockdown defense that’s been able to step up in critical moments and with Chris Johnson momentarily showing flashes of greatness – this usually follows the O-line showing unexpected flashes of greatness. Unfortunately, the Raiders, aside from the catastrophes at Denver and at home against Philadelphia, have been a solid pass defense all season, and pretty much anyone in the top half of the NFL has been solid at rush defense vs. the Titans this year. The Titans, on the other hand, simply cannot stop the run, which doesn’t bode well against a team that’s found a rebirth with Rashad Jennings. Expect the Raiders to punch it down the Titans’ throats for most of the game.

Oakland Raiders: 23-16

 

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4):

Raise your hand if you had the Colts facing a must-win situation last week in order to keep the Titans out of the hunt for the division crown. Keep that hand raised if you had Arizona in contention for the top wild-card slot 11 games into the season. The Cardinals have been interesting. Save for a gaffe against the Seahawks, Arizona has been a monster at home, shutting down the likes of the high-powered Panthers and Lions, while getting shellacked on the road. Some of it has to do with Carson Palmer actually having time to find the open receiver at home, but a lot more has to do with how this defense performs. In Arizona, the Cardinals’ D has been one of the top in the league. However, the Colts have done an incredible job of picking apart some of the league’s top defenses, and even without Reggie Wayne, should be able to find ways to move the ball. The issue comes with its own defense. While the Colts have struggled to stop the run all year, pass-heavy offenses have been Indy’s Kryptonite, with losses against San Diego, Miami and St. Louis (though this one was more on Tavon Austin than Kellen Clemens). If Carson Palmer can play remotely like his old self this week, the Cardinals should be able to get a half-step closer to the Seahawks.

Arizona Cardinals: 23-20

   

Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6):

Don’t look now, but here come the Giants, winners of four in a row. The Giants have benefited tremendously from scheduling, facing three backup quarterbacks and an injured Terrelle Pryor in the last month, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re now two games out of first and a win over Dallas from being in second-place as well. Whereas the Giants’ secondary has stepped up in second weeks, Dallas’ whole defense, which just keeps getting plagued by the injury bug, has gone in quite the opposite direction, giving up a franchise record in yardage and first downs against the Saints in its last game. Eli Manning has looked sloppy all season, but the addition of Andre Brown gives the Giants a balanced attack that should keep the Cowboys D off-balance. On the other side, though, the Cowboys have to accept that it is not a run-first team. Dallas was able to run effectively against New Orleans, but with a defense that simply can’t stop a thing, that only put the Cowboys in a hole. Look for the Giants to blast the Cowboys here too.

New York Giants: 35-17

 

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3):

You gotta love the NFL’s flex capability – keeping the mediocre Cowboys out of the spotlight and focusing on Manning-Brady for a decade straight now. This game has all the storylines. Wes Welker should be healthy enough to play, Tom Brady has all his weapons back in a must-win situation, and Peyton Manning has to show that the Broncos can actually string up wins against above-.500 teams. The Patriots have the home-field advantage, plus the benefit of a rivalry game, but the defense has far too many holes to cover up. Aqib Talib is the only legitimate shut-down defense they have right now, and Manning simply have too many options on offense for that to matter. Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola should be able to do enough to keep it close but won’t be able to pull out the win.

Denver Broncos: 31-28

 

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7):

I don’t understand what the Redskins have been doing. I get that Mike Shanahan is a run-focused coach who’s adamant that the Skins succeed at it, but even a successful run game was worthless last week against Philadelphia. RGIII struggles to run the read-option the few times the Skins run it, and forcing him to only pass on obvious passing downs has hampered his ability open up the field. However, the slumping 49ers won’t have a cakewalk. San Francisco just hasn’t been able to generate enough offense to pull anything off the last couple weeks, even with the reintroduction of Mario Manningham. A fully healthy Vernon Davis plus the prospect of facing a Swiss-cheese, should help Colin Kaepernick to break out of his slump, but he’ll need to put up three or four touchdowns for the Niners to pull this one out.

San Francisco 49ers: 28-20