Bengals-Dolphins Predictions - Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

I had to double-check the Bengals’ record when I went to write this pick. That 6-2 record just doesn’t seem right, especially given that ugly loss the Browns in Week 4. But the Bengals have also managed to beat both the Patriots and Packers (when both were relatively healthy) at home, as well as a fully functional Lions team on the road. Andy Dalton and AJ Green have finally figured things out, Giovani Bernard is looking less like an eight-game rookie and more like a seasoned pro, and Marvin Jones (who?) has provided a nice complement to Green. That said, I don’t trust the Bengals secondary on the road. Calvin Johnson ate everyone alive two weeks ago, and the same defense that managed to stifle Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at home managed to give Bills fans hope in Thad Lewis on the road. Miami has struggled to run the ball this season, but Tannehill has been good enough to at least keep his squad in games, and if Cincinnati isn’t able to force a couple early errors from him or the Lamar Miller/Daniel Thomas tandem, then it could be in for some trouble.

Miami Dolphins: 23-17

NFL Predictions - Week 8

Last Week: 9-6

Overall: 69-38-0

 

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at Detroit Lions (4-3):

Speaking as both a Lions fan and a fantasy owner of both Dez Bryant and Megatron, I cannot wait for this game. It should as good of one as we saw in Dallas two years, with a game that remains close to the end. That said, I still do not trust this Cowboys team. The defense has played progressively better every week – game against Denver aside – and Tony Romo seems to be managing the offense about as mistake-free as he ever has, but this is the exact same squad that hasn’t managed to finish above mediocre for several straight seasons, and here it should be the same. The defense relies on pressure and turnovers to get stops, and one thing Matt Stafford has managed to cut down on this season is the number of mistakes he’s made (only 4 INTs this season) and thanks to the presence of both Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson, the field is going to be about as wide as it was for the Broncos. The Cowboys offense has been very good this season, but it’s walking into a hostile environment and going to be asked to keep up with one of the league’s best without its starting running back. Should be a great game that swings in Detroit’s favor.

Detroit Lions: 27-23

 

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0):

You know things are weird when the consensus worst team after Week 2 openly gives up on the season, puts everybody on the trading block, but then balks five weeks later because it thinks it has a shot at the postseason. This is what the Jason Campbell move looks like to me, especially after the Browns are hesitant to move Josh Gordon after openly shopping him earlier this season. Cleveland actually has one of the league’s better defenses, and that should show this week against KC, but it’s still working on finding something on the other side of the ball. Campbell is no longer an NFL starter, but Case Keenum proved last week that the unexpected can be beneficial against this monstrous Chiefs defense. However, for the Browns to have a shot in this game, Campbell will have to stay poised in the pocket under pressure and the Browns defense will have to rattle Alex Smith like he hasn’t been all season long. I don’t see it happening.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-13

 

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (5-2):

Well this is a fun game. Two teams phenomenally underperforming but technically still vying for the division title. Miami just hasn’t looked the same since its meltdown in New Orleans, dropping home games to both Baltimore and Buffalo. It’s been incapable of running the ball and hasn’t played solid defense since Week 3. New England, however, is losing player after player on defense, and Tom Brady just can’t seem to find a rhythm with his new receivers on offense. Fortunately, for the Patriots at least, Stevan Ridley seems to be coming on strong, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola should be back to full strength, and as injury-depleted as that defense is, it doesn’t have to worry about stopping the run, which should allow the Patriots to get back on track.

New England Patriots: 27-19

 

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-1):

I like this new-look Bills squad. The defense is slowly healing up, with a secondary that plays with a great bend-don’t-break philosophy, and Thad Lewis is doing exactly what the Bills need him to do: hand the ball off and don’t throw interceptions. Unfortunately, they’re going to be facing off against Drew Brees in the Superdome. For all the upside the Bills have, this is still the NFL’s elite, even if Jimmy Graham doesn’t go today. Look for Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles to steal the show this week.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4):

This division is getting so old. The Eagles don’t look good, but the Giants look so much worse. For any of you who felt the need to torture yourself by watching the whole MNF game, you got to watch Eli Manning look like an old man who had a receiving corps with no hands between the three of them. Peyton “Jellylegs” Hillis literally went from couch to starter and still managed to be the most effective part of this team. As much as the defense has ailed Philadelphia this year, the Eagles should still be able to put up points in droves, and, Victor Cruz aside, it’s unlikely the Giants will find a way to keep up.

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-24

 

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) – LONDON:

Poor Londoners. Between the two games this year, fans got to watch four teams who were a combined 5-15 heading into kickoff, and unfortunately, this one will probably be worse than the first. The Niners are clicking on all cylinders right now, with Colin Kaepernick finally shaking out the kinks and running the read option to perfection alongside Frank Gore. He’s still struggling to put the ball in the air, but the Jaguars defense – absolutely atrocious – shouldn’t be too difficult to shred. The Niners’ defense is a question mark though, as Chad Henne has proven effective enough at getting the ball to the Jaguars’ two playmakers, Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. The Jags should be able to put up some yards, but this game should never be in doubt.

San Franciso 49ers: 31-17

 

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2):

So the Jets are actually playing like a decent football team now. An exceptional defense is carrying the Geno Smith-led offense, but Smith has been able to do just enough in several games to help the Jets eke out a win. That’s going to be a tough sell in Cincinnati though. As sporadic as this team has looked this season, the Bengals still seem to be one of the NFL’s best squads, especially after knocking off the Lions in Detroit. There shouldn’t be much of a ground attack against the Jets’ solid front, but Andy Dalton and AJ Green seem finally to be connecting, which will open the field up enough to allow the Bengals to walk away with this one.

Cincinnati Bengals 24-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4):

As bad as the two teams’ records are, I’m actually looking forward to this game. The Steelers seem to have finally recovered from their early-season tilt and, if last week’s game against Baltimore is the rule, not the exception, they seem to have found their power running-game behind Le’Veon Bell. Pitt drained most of the clock last Sunday and were able to ask very little from Ben Roethlisberger in the win over Baltimoer, and given Oakland’s fairly weak run defense, it wouldn’t be surprising if Pittsburgh tried the same again this week. That said, Oakland is coming off a bye, with Darren McFadden supposedly healthy again, which makes this Oakland offense exceptionally dangerous. Terrelle Pryor has enough weapons to spread the field and can destroy opposing teams with his legs, which Pitt has struggled with all season. The Steelers should win a close one, but both teams should become relative contenders by season’s end.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17

 

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1):

Washington’s offense finally looked like it was coming together in last week’s win over Chicago (and by coming together, I mean, “RGIII could finally throw the ball), but nothing has been done to shore up that terrible secondary. Coming off the loss last week at Indianapolis, Peyton Manning and the Broncos will likely rip into Washington from the opening bell and won’t let up until it has a several-touchdown lead.

Denver Broncos: 41-20

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4):

Arizona finally looked like the team I was expecting to show up the last few weeks: thoroughly outgunned and outplayed in its division. Carson Palmer simply does not look comfortable, the offensive line is terrible, and Bruce Arians refuses to accept that Rashard Mendenhall isn’t the answer. The defense has  been fairly solid throughout the season, but it’s hard to keep opponents out of the end zone when you’re on the field 70 percent of the game. Atlanta is coming off a well-played win against Tampa Bay, Stephen Jackson is back, and Matt Ryan doesn’t seem to have the same trust issues with his receivers as Brady. The defense still needs some serious work, but it’s unlikely Palmer and Andre Ellington (look, Mendenhall is not going to get the job done) will put up the numbers necessary to keep up with the Falcons offense, even in Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-27

 

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5):

I’m pretty sure that Josh Freeman concussion was for the better. Monday Night’s game didn’t just look like a trial run for Freeman; it looked like Minnesota putting all its chips on him, assuming either they’d found their franchise QB or they would get a good draft pick this season, even with Adrian Peterson still relevant enough to carry this team. With Cassel back in, the Vikings will be forced to go back to a balanced playbook, which should actually allow them to score some points this week. That, unfortunately, won’t matter, as, even though Rodgers is still without James Jones, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley, Eddie Lacy has given that offense the balance it desperately needed for years, keeping the pressure off Rodgers, who will be able to make do with Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin.

Green Bay Packers: 34-23

 

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4):

I wanna say I’m not selling on the Rams just yet. The loss at Carolina hurt, especially losing Sam Bradford for the season, but the defense hasn’t actually been terrible, and the offense finally seems to have found all the pieces it needs to put things together. That said, they have no quarterback. The Seahawks defense has been phenomenal this season, and it’s going to eat what just became a run-centric offense alive. The Rams also can’t stop the run – as evidenced by the fact they’ve been shredded by every dual-threat quarterback ever – and Marshawn Lynch will likely rack up 150 yards and two touchdowns today before going easy on them.

Seattle Seahawks: 31-17

Last Week: 9-6

Overall: 69-38-0

 

Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at Detroit Lions (4-3):

Speaking as both a Lions fan and a fantasy owner of both Dez Bryant and Megatron, I cannot wait for this game. It should as good of one as we saw in Dallas two years, with a game that remains close to the end. That said, I still do not trust this Cowboys team. The defense has played progressively better every week – game against Denver aside – and Tony Romo seems to be managing the offense about as mistake-free as he ever has, but this is the exact same squad that hasn’t managed to finish above mediocre for several straight seasons, and here it should be the same. The defense relies on pressure and turnovers to get stops, and one thing Matt Stafford has managed to cut down on this season is the number of mistakes he’s made (only 4 INTs this season) and thanks to the presence of both Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson, the field is going to be about as wide as it was for the Broncos. The Cowboys offense has been very good this season, but it’s walking into a hostile environment and going to be asked to keep up with one of the league’s best without its starting running back. Should be a great game that swings in Detroit’s favor.

Detroit Lions: 27-23

 

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0):

You know things are weird when the consensus worst team after Week 2 openly gives up on the season, puts everybody on the trading block, but then balks five weeks later because it thinks it has a shot at the postseason. This is what the Jason Campbell move looks like to me, especially after the Browns are hesitant to move Josh Gordon after openly shopping him earlier this season. Cleveland actually has one of the league’s better defenses, and that should show this week against KC, but it’s still working on finding something on the other side of the ball. Campbell is no longer an NFL starter, but Case Keenum proved last week that the unexpected can be beneficial against this monstrous Chiefs defense. However, for the Browns to have a shot in this game, Campbell will have to stay poised in the pocket under pressure and the Browns defense will have to rattle Alex Smith like he hasn’t been all season long. I don’t see it happening.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-13

 

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (5-2):

Well this is a fun game. Two teams phenomenally underperforming but technically still vying for the division title. Miami just hasn’t looked the same since its meltdown in New Orleans, dropping home games to both Baltimore and Buffalo. It’s been incapable of running the ball and hasn’t played solid defense since Week 3. New England, however, is losing player after player on defense, and Tom Brady just can’t seem to find a rhythm with his new receivers on offense. Fortunately, for the Patriots at least, Stevan Ridley seems to be coming on strong, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola should be back to full strength, and as injury-depleted as that defense is, it doesn’t have to worry about stopping the run, which should allow the Patriots to get back on track.

New England Patriots: 27-19

 

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-1):

I like this new-look Bills squad. The defense is slowly healing up, with a secondary that plays with a great bend-don’t-break philosophy, and Thad Lewis is doing exactly what the Bills need him to do: hand the ball off and don’t throw interceptions. Unfortunately, they’re going to be facing off against Drew Brees in the Superdome. For all the upside the Bills have, this is still the NFL’s elite, even if Jimmy Graham doesn’t go today. Look for Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles to steal the show this week.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4):

This division is getting so old. The Eagles don’t look good, but the Giants look so much worse. For any of you who felt the need to torture yourself by watching the whole MNF game, you got to watch Eli Manning look like an old man who had a receiving corps with no hands between the three of them. Peyton “Jellylegs” Hillis literally went from couch to starter and still managed to be the most effective part of this team. As much as the defense has ailed Philadelphia this year, the Eagles should still be able to put up points in droves, and, Victor Cruz aside, it’s unlikely the Giants will find a way to keep up.

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-24

 

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) – LONDON:

Poor Londoners. Between the two games this year, fans got to watch four teams who were a combined 5-15 heading into kickoff, and unfortunately, this one will probably be worse than the first. The Niners are clicking on all cylinders right now, with Colin Kaepernick finally shaking out the kinks and running the read option to perfection alongside Frank Gore. He’s still struggling to put the ball in the air, but the Jaguars defense – absolutely atrocious – shouldn’t be too difficult to shred. The Niners’ defense is a question mark though, as Chad Henne has proven effective enough at getting the ball to the Jaguars’ two playmakers, Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. The Jags should be able to put up some yards, but this game should never be in doubt.

San Franciso 49ers: 31-17

 

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2):

So the Jets are actually playing like a decent football team now. An exceptional defense is carrying the Geno Smith-led offense, but Smith has been able to do just enough in several games to help the Jets eke out a win. That’s going to be a tough sell in Cincinnati though. As sporadic as this team has looked this season, the Bengals still seem to be one of the NFL’s best squads, especially after knocking off the Lions in Detroit. There shouldn’t be much of a ground attack against the Jets’ solid front, but Andy Dalton and AJ Green seem finally to be connecting, which will open the field up enough to allow the Bengals to walk away with this one.

Cincinnati Bengals 24-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4):

As bad as the two teams’ records are, I’m actually looking forward to this game. The Steelers seem to have finally recovered from their early-season tilt and, if last week’s game against Baltimore is the rule, not the exception, they seem to have found their power running-game behind Le’Veon Bell. Pitt drained most of the clock last Sunday and were able to ask very little from Ben Roethlisberger in the win over Baltimoer, and given Oakland’s fairly weak run defense, it wouldn’t be surprising if Pittsburgh tried the same again this week. That said, Oakland is coming off a bye, with Darren McFadden supposedly healthy again, which makes this Oakland offense exceptionally dangerous. Terrelle Pryor has enough weapons to spread the field and can destroy opposing teams with his legs, which Pitt has struggled with all season. The Steelers should win a close one, but both teams should become relative contenders by season’s end.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17

 

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1):

Washington’s offense finally looked like it was coming together in last week’s win over Chicago (and by coming together, I mean, “RGIII could finally throw the ball), but nothing has been done to shore up that terrible secondary. Coming off the loss last week at Indianapolis, Peyton Manning and the Broncos will likely rip into Washington from the opening bell and won’t let up until it has a several-touchdown lead.

Denver Broncos: 41-20

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4):

Arizona finally looked like the team I was expecting to show up the last few weeks: thoroughly outgunned and outplayed in its division. Carson Palmer simply does not look comfortable, the offensive line is terrible, and Bruce Arians refuses to accept that Rashard Mendenhall isn’t the answer. The defense has  been fairly solid throughout the season, but it’s hard to keep opponents out of the end zone when you’re on the field 70 percent of the game. Atlanta is coming off a well-played win against Tampa Bay, Stephen Jackson is back, and Matt Ryan doesn’t seem to have the same trust issues with his receivers as Brady. The defense still needs some serious work, but it’s unlikely Palmer and Andre Ellington (look, Mendenhall is not going to get the job done) will put up the numbers necessary to keep up with the Falcons offense, even in Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-27

 

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5):

I’m pretty sure that Josh Freeman concussion was for the better. Monday Night’s game didn’t just look like a trial run for Freeman; it looked like Minnesota putting all its chips on him, assuming either they’d found their franchise QB or they would get a good draft pick this season, even with Adrian Peterson still relevant enough to carry this team. With Cassel back in, the Vikings will be forced to go back to a balanced playbook, which should actually allow them to score some points this week. That, unfortunately, won’t matter, as, even though Rodgers is still without James Jones, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley, Eddie Lacy has given that offense the balance it desperately needed for years, keeping the pressure off Rodgers, who will be able to make do with Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin.

Green Bay Packers: 34-23

 

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4):

I wanna say I’m not selling on the Rams just yet. The loss at Carolina hurt, especially losing Sam Bradford for the season, but the defense hasn’t actually been terrible, and the offense finally seems to have found all the pieces it needs to put things together. That said, they have no quarterback. The Seahawks defense has been phenomenal this season, and it’s going to eat what just became a run-centric offense alive. The Rams also can’t stop the run – as evidenced by the fact they’ve been shredded by every dual-threat quarterback ever – and Marshawn Lynch will likely rack up 150 yards and two touchdowns today before going easy on them.

Seattle Seahawks: 31-17

Panthers-Buccaneers Prediction - Week 8

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6):

So this is the Carolina team everybody has been half-expecting for the last season and a half. A defense that, since the Giants’ game in Week 3, has been on absolute lockdown, and a power running attack that completely compensates for the Panthers’ anemic passing attack. At the same time, though, for all the weaknesses this Bucs team is showing, its run defense is not one of them. The Panthers will have to be able to utilize Steve Smith and Greg Olsen in order to open up the Bucs’ defense tonight, or there’s a good chance they’ll be running into a brick wall for 60 minutes. On the other side of the ball, Mike Glennon has looked better than Josh Freeman, but he seems to only have one trick up his sleeve: Throw to Vincent Jackson. However, this Panthers defense is good enough to figure out ways to stymy Jackson, which will force Glennon to start checking down to receivers he typically avoids and to rely on a run game that struggled even with Doug Martin in the backfield. This should be a fairly low-scoring game, but the Panthers should keep the edge.

Carolina Panthers: 20-13

NFL Predictions - Week 7

I think we’re at about the point in the season where breaking down an individual team every week is kind of pointless, so I’ll just be doing an analysis of each game from this point on.

Last Week: 12-3

Overall: 60-32-0

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4):

The Bucs are just crumbling, which is a shame because there’s plenty of talent on this roster. Just look at what they did in the first couple of weeks. Tampa Bay still has a strong secondary, Mike Glennon can clearly throw the ball, and Doug Martin is a still a top NFL running back, but the team is a mess, and it’s not going to get better any time soon. Atlanta’s had a bye week to prepare and deal with the loss of Julio Jones, and even with Stephen Jackson out of the lineup yet again, Matt Ryan is simply too talented to lose at home to a team like this.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-23

 

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2):

Cincinnati is so bipolar it hurts to watch. Shut down the Patriots offense one week, be incapable of handling Thad Lewis the next. The Bengals have to like their matchup going into this week, though. Detroit’s defense is far from terrible, but it gives up huge numbers to running backs and there’s simply no one in the Lions’ secondary that can handle AJ Green. Problem is, Detroit’s offense should be back to full strength for the first time since Week 2. As good as the Bengals’ secondary is, it’s incredibly hard to contain Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the slew of tight ends at Matt Stafford’s disposal.

Detroit Lions: 27-20

 

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2):

For all the Bills’ misfortune this year, they still seem to be holding it together enough to play teams competitively. A patchwork secondary may not be one of the league’s best defenders, but they make play after play to keep the Bills offense in it, and Thad Lewis was able to shred a good Bengals secondary in the fourth quarter last week. The Dolphins are hosting the Bills off a bye week, however, which means Ryan Tannehill, one of the league’s better decision-makers has had plenty of time to work through this secondary, and the Dolphins have to have planned for a way to get Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas better touches this week. Buffalo should be able to put up enough points to keep it close again, but this should go the Dolphins’ way.

Miami Dolphins: 23-20

 

New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3):

Call me crazy, but I don’t think this game will be close. Bill Belichick is the master at gameplanning, and he’s already seen what the Jets have to throw at him this season. Rob Gronkowski is back, so even with the absence of Danny Amendola, the Jets will have a hard time slowing down the Pats passing attack. Additionally, Gronk’s blocking means bigger holes for Stevan Ridley. Geno Smith is showing flashes of talent, and New England’s defense has been getting destroyed by injury (Jerod Mayo is now out for the season), but New England has managed to find ways to work through that for years. It won’t stop them now.

New England Patriots: 31-13

 

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3):

As lopsided as a lot of these matchups have been lately, we’ve managed to get a shootout almost every week, and here’s yours for Week 7. We all know the Eagles can stop next to nothing, and with the rise of Terrence Williams, the Cowboys have four legitimate WR threats, so even with the absence of DeMarco Murray, Dallas should be near unstoppable this week. Nick Foles has been phenomenal in six quarters for Philadelphia and Lesean McCoy is among the league’s elite running backs, but I don’t see Foles playing mistake-free enough to keep up with Tony Romo.

Dallas Cowboys: 34-28

 

Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Redskins (1-4):

RGIII has looked progressively better on the ground every week, but he’s still struggling to put his passes where they need to go, and no one is better at capitalizing off QB errors than the Bears defense. Additionally, with the Redskins’ atrocious secondary, Jay Cutler will likely keep up his torrid start, and Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery should both be in line for incredible numbers this week.  Homefield advantage and a healthy Alfred Morris should help keep things more balanced, but this will go to Chicago.

Chicago Bears: 31-17

 

St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3):

St. Louis has this mantra right now that consists of “2-0.” I don’t really get that, since they’ve beaten the Jaguars and a reeling Texans team, but I assume it’s to take the players’ minds off the fact that they were outscored by roughly 8 touchdowns in the two weeks prior. But that kind of stuff doesn’t go away. Carolina has quietly put together one of the league’s elite defenses, and it runs the ball better than nearly every team in the league, something St. Louis can’t stop at all. If Cam Newton can find some measure of performance similar to last year, it’ll be difficult for the Rams to even keep this close.

Carolina Panthers: 23-13

 

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6):

The addition of Justin Blackmon doesn’t make the Jaguars are a good team, but it definitely makes things better for Chad Henne. Although Cecil Shorts will likely go, he’ll be limited, but it should be enough to take a little heat off Blackmon against a middling Chargers pass defense. But the Jaguars defense simply isn’t going to be able to handle Philip Rivers’ passing attack. If Rivers can keep from turning the ball over, the Chargers have too many weapons and too many options to get them the ball for Jacksonville to handle.

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

 

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3):

The Niners have been phenomenal the last few weeks, and it only looks to get better; however, the Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week. Though it’s unlikely he’s 100 percent, what he gives the Titans is an efficient, mistake-free attack that Ryan Fitzpatrick simply couldn’t provide. That offense still has plenty of problems (Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt), but the defense has improved substantially this year, to the point where it played well IN Seattle, which few teams do. Look for the Titans to pull off a mild upset heading into the bye week.

Tennessee Titans: 20-17

 

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2):

The Browns couldn’t have headed into Lambeau at a better time. The Packers’ receiving corps has been gouged, and Cleveland is a solid run stopper, while Brandon Weeden will face a defense that simply cannot force turnovers. Cleveland’s run game seems to have fallen by the wayside, but Jordan Cameron’s phenomenal matchup, along with Josh Gordon’s all-around awesomeness, mean that the Browns should be able to put up points this week. That said, this is Aaron Rodgers at home, and even missing his second and third receiving options, Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers: 31-24

 

Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0):

OK, so we can put that start-bench argument to rest for Matt Schaub, but since he’s injured, that doesn’t really matter. Case Keenum clearly has something that Gary Kubiak wants to try, but both sides of this Texans team have just come unraveled, and going up against the league’s best defenses and most efficient offenses is not a recipe that will allow Houston to solve its woes.

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-17

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4):

This rivalry doesn’t have quite the luster it once did, when the teams are a combined 4-7. The Ravens have looked much improved in recent weeks, but the Steelers looked like a wholly different team a week ago at New York. Le’Veon Bell provides a spark on the ground that the Steelers haven’t had in years, and Ben Roethlisberger has been able to use that to pick apart defenses the last two weeks. As for the Ravens, if they can’t find a running game, this will not be close. The Steelers defense, though it’s dropped off this year, still has a terrific pass defense, and asking Joe Flacco to win this game is simply not an option.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 16-13

 

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2):

Peyton Manning’s homecoming should be a phenomenal game. Both teams are the class of the AFC, and as Jacksonville and Dallas have shown in recent weeks, the Broncos have holes that can be exploited. Von Miller returns this week, which should help the Broncos shore up an already good run defense and should help pressure quarterbacks enough to improve their pass defense in the coming weeks. That said, there’s no way the Colts receivers drop as many passes as they did a week ago in San Diego. Andrew Luck doesn’t have the weapons that Manning has at his disposal, but he should do enough to keep it close. However, there’s too much going in Manning’s direction this week, and the Broncos should be able to squeak by.

Denver Broncos: 35-31

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6):

The Giants obviously would’ve preferred to pull off a win, but for the first time this year, they weren’t blown out by Chicago, which has to be seen as a step forward. Brandon Jacobs imposed his will on the Bears defense, and the Vikings are a much, much worse team. Josh Freeman will be starting for the Vikings this week, and there’s no way he can have the playbook completely solved. He spreads the field, though, making it easier for Adrian Peterson to do his job; however, that won’t be enough to keep up with New York this week. Giants will finally (after six losses) earn their first win.

New York Giants: 31-27

Seahawks-Cardinals Prediction - Week 7

Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3):

I understood why Seattle struggled on the road last year. Led by a rookie quarterback who’s buoyed by the best home-field crowd in the league, it’s understandable when the team performs at a lower level on the road. But this year, the Hawks seem to be reverting to their early-2012 standards. If not for a phenomenal second-half comeback three weeks ago, the Hawks likely would have lost two straight on the road.

It doesn’t help that Arizona has owned Seattle at home over the past few seasons, either, and the Cardinals’ defense seems to be miles better at home than on the road. Larry Fitzgerald finally woke up, racking up his first 100-yard game this season, and Andre Ellington has quietly replaced Rashard Mendenhall as the team’s starting back, both of which seem likely to open up Bruce Arians’ defense in the exact way he imagined. The Cardinals should keep those close, but they’re still not at the NFC-leading standard Seattle is setting right now.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-20

NFL Predictions - Week 6

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 48-29

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2):

So I was checking the Giants stats earlier and I noticed something: They’ve given up at least 31 points in every game this season. Every. Single. Game. The highest scoring offense of all time (2007 New England Patriots) only averaged about 35 points per game. That’s bad, folks. And it’s not gonna get any better this week. Eli Manning is averaging 2.4 picks per game, and we all know how much Chicago likes to turn those things into points.

This matchup really couldn’t come at a better week for Chicago. The Bears were never serious frontrunners for NFC leader, but still, getting demolished in back-to-back weeks, even by legitimate favorites, is hard to handle. Thankfully, with the emergence of Alshon Jeffery, Jay Cutler has a completely full and capable roster for the first time as a Bear, and he should have fun this week.

Chicago Bears: 34-17

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3):

For those of you who didn’t watch the Bengals-Patriots game last week, it was a monsoon, one of the worst downpours I’ve ever seen. (Why does this keep happening to New England, by the way?) It forced both teams to switch to a ground-and-pound game and despite looking like he was on his way out, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was able to essentially carry the Bengals to a sloppy win. My point is this: The Andy Dalton-AJ Green connection is clearly not getting it done this year, and Cinci needs something to stabilize the offense. Heading into Buffalo, which has had a surprisingly good secondary this season, with an effective run game is what the Bengals will need.

The Bills’ Thad Lewis, from practice squad to starting QB this week, is in for a rough introduction as a Bill. He played decently in his only career start, but going up against one of the NFL’s elite defenses means that this likely won’t be pretty. Look for the Bills’ defense to keep this close, but with the ability to focus primarily on the Bills’ running tandem, Cinci’s defense should be too much to handle this week.

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-17

 

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2):

Megatron is day-to-day again, and we all saw how well that worked out for Detroit in Green Bay, and Cleveland hosts a much better defense with a secondary that will likely completely eliminate any shot at the vertical game Detroit has. However, Detroit’s defense has played surprisingly well this season, limiting Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps to one big play on the week, which prevented a blowout from becoming a slaughter.

Cleveland likely took a step backwards with the reintroduction of Brandon Weeden, but even so, Weeden was able to make the plays necessary to win last Thursday against Buffalo. Willis McGahee wasn’t the back he was a few years ago, but he still has talent and was clearly good enough to reach Trent Richardson’s YPC average in a matter of weeks. That said, the Browns’ offensive line is atrocious and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to stop Ndamukong Suh and Co. at all this week. That’d be trouble enough for an elite quarterback, let alone a middling sophomore one with a questionable WR corps. The Lions may struggle without Calvin Johnson, but should be able to pull off the win either way.

Detroit Lions: 24-20

 

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0):

I’m a big fan of Terrelle Pryor (the athlete, not the person), but I wanna be clear: He hasn’t faced a serious defense yet. Travelling to Arrowhead without your best back in the lineup against the league’s best defense is not the best first test, either. However, Oakland’s defense has been solid so far this season and against an offense that focuses simply on efficiency, it should be enough to keep this game close.

After perfection for three weeks, Alex Smith has now thrown three interceptions in his last two games. While, granted, the Chiefs won both games going away, it does create a little cause for concern, especially given the fact that his wide receiver corps has been virtually nonexistent since the Eagles game a few weeks ago. However, while Pryor and the Raiders offense look like they have a pretty high ceiling, they haven’t reached it yet, and KC should be able to handle this game in relatively easy fashion.

Kansas City Chiefs: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3):

What a mess of a game. The Panthers come in with one of the NFL’s best defenses, one of the best rushing attacks … and one of the worst records. DeAngelo Williams has proven he’s still a solid runner, and Cam Newton is still able to cover ground fairly easily, but with an aging Steve Smith and absolutely no WR depth, the Panthers have been incapable of putting up enough points to win at all this season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has even less. A porous defense, mixed with a terrible quarterback situation, means that Adrian Peterson will be the lone bright spot of this team for at least the next couple of weeks – and then only if Josh Freeman pans out. Matt Cassel, however, looked good enough in the Vikings win over Pittsburgh, and with the home crowd edge, he should be able to make enough plays to give Peterson some running room and take this game.

Minnesota Vikings: 23-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2):

Well, the fun has stopped in Pittsburgh. I’ve never been a big fan of telling players they can no longer do what’s necessary to enjoy themselves, and banning ping-pong and pool from the locker room really doesn’t strike me as a good solution. However, LeVeon Bell looked solid in his debut and Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown have developed a good chemistry, which means that this team should be able to start putting up points soon.

They’re gonna need it, because Bilal Powell has been averaging over 100 yards per game since Chris Ivory got hurt, and Geno Smith has looked markedly better in each game, making zero major mistakes in the win over the Falcons on Monday. And I know I mentioned Pittsburgh’s sense of desperation before, but there’s a reason that team has been in playoff contention for so many years. Now with what should be a fully functional offense, coming off the bye week, the Steelers should have enough pieces to take their first win in a slugfest.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4):

So you’d think with Mike Vick out, Chip Kelly’s offense would be in trouble. But then you’d think wrong, because Nick Foles simply stepped up and resumed carving up the Giants where Vick left off. The defense is worrisome, though. As bad as the Giants are, the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers managed to put up phenomenal stat lines. On top of that, Philly will face Doug Martin this week, who, despite his team’s poor performance, has still managed to perform better than average.

The Bucs are a mess right now. I’ve picked them every week, and three out of the four weeks, with a minute to go, it looked like my pick was right. The inability to close out games is more than just on the players – it’s happened on both sides of the ball – and that has to be fixed. Additionally, the melodrama of Josh Freeman’s departure has only made what once had the looks of a playoff team look like an episode of Hard Knocks.  Mike Glennon may have some talent, but he has three available weapons, and one of them will likely disappear this week.

Philadelphia Eagles: 24-23

 

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2):

I think it’s a little strange how, despite nearly blowing Detroit out at home, the Packers’ offense managed to have a remarkably pedestrian game, scoring just one touchdown on the afternoon. Aaron Rodgers is still one of the league’s best, but either Greg Jennings’ departure has affected the team’s depth more than it’s let on, or receivers like Jordy Nelson and James Jones just aren’t as good when pressure falls on them. Facing off against a Ravens team that actually has a sturdy run defense, and this Packers squad will be forced back into its one-dimensional role from a season ago, only without the team’s best playmaker.

I still don’t get what Baltimore is trying to do on offense. Ray Rice saw a much heavier load last week against Miami (27 carries, almost matching Joe Flacco’s 32 passes), but that’s the first time this season we’ve seen it. Rice didn’t even manage 3 yards per carry, but the fact that the Ravens are willing to push him means that Green Bay can’t simply expect another heavy dose of Joe Flacco. The Ravens should walk out of this one with the better-looking offense at day’s end.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-21

 

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3):

So the Rams have recovered, right? Doubtful. The Jaguars are historically bad, and even with that measurement, St. Louis never really completely put Jacksonville away. Sam Bradford looked much better than he has in recent weeks, spreading the ball all over the field, and Zac Stacy actually looked capable of carrying the ball. But even with the return of Justin Blackmon, the Rams defense doesn’t have an excuse for giving up nearly 300 yards to the Jaguars at home.

Houston has had a ridiculously tough last three weeks to be fair, but more pressing are the concerns about Matt Schaub. The four pick-sixes for TD story, in my opinion, is a little overhyped, but it is something to take not of. Schaub isn’t just making mistakes by throwing INTs. A lot of quarterbacks are throwing way more. It’s where he’s throwing them, such as hitting Richard Sherman in stride and following suit with Tramaine Brock a week later, that is worrisome. Schaub is clearly affected by those passes, and if the Texans are going to turn things around, he needs a soft opponent to help him do so. Enter St. Louis.

Houston Texans: 30-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0):

This one isn’t going to be pretty. The Jaguars are four-touchdown underdogs, and while I think they may cover the spread thanks to Blackmon’s return, I can’t even say that with confidence. That’s ridiculous.

Denver Broncos: 41-17

 

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1):

Even with the loss of Jake Locker, the Titans were able to keep things close and, until a couple of late mistakes by Ryan Fitzpatrick, were even in position to knock off the undefeated Chiefs. They were obviously unsuccessful, but the Titans have managed to pass test after test this season with a young, athletic defense and a receiving corps that is more than making up for Chris Johnson and the O-line’s lack of ability to run the ball.

The problem is, playing in Qwest field isn’t so much a test as it is a gauntlet. The Seahawks are a different beast when they’re at home, and if the Titans are going to shock the Hawks here, they’ll need to shut down an increasingly mobile Russell Wilson, an electrified Marshawn Lynch and be able to break through the NFL’s second-best defense. It just won’t happen.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-14

 

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1):

I finally found a flaw with this team: the running game. Despite giving Pierre Thomas the bulk of the workload in two of the three weeks that Mark Ingram has missed, the Saints are still completely incapable of moving the ball on the ground. That’s been mitigated by Jimmy Graham’s performance and Darren Sproles and Thomas alternately having breakout games in receptions, but going up against a secondary that has been remarkably good at times this season means the Saints will likely have to find some way to move the ball on the ground to win this one.

The Patriots, meanwhile, should be getting Rob Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley back this week, which means that one of the league’s best secondaries should get its first true test of the season. Like Graham, Gronk cannot be matched up on by anyone, and his run-blocking should be able to open holes for Ridley that simply haven’t existed so far this season. If Gronk IS able to suit up—still listed as day-to-day – the Patriots should be able to knock off the undefeated Saints.

New England Patriots: 31-27

 

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2):

Every time I start to think the Cardinals might be legitimate contenders, I check out what they’ve done and realize there’s no body of work there. Wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay are woefully unimpressive and the loss to St. Louis looks worse and worse by the week. Andre Ellington is starting to look like a legitimate running threat, but Bruce Arians’ refusal to use him full time still hinders the Cardinals’ ground game.

San Francisco, meanwhile, continues to look better and better, Colin Kaepernick especially. The Niners have managed to get the read option working to some degree over the past two weeks, and if Arizona is going to win, the defense will have to shut down Kaep and Gore completely, because it’s unlikely the Niners will try to win it through the air, with Patrick Peterson blanketing Anquan Boldin all night. Unfortunately for Arizona, that seems like it’s going to be too tough a task to handle.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

 

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3):

This game might actually break the Jones-a-tron, which would be some terrific irony. Washington’s secondary is simply horrific, but RGIII is coming off a bye week that should have given him enough time to mentally set himself for a very good pass rush.

The Cowboys meanwhile, can’t feel bad about their loss last week. Tony Romo went toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning for 60 minutes and made the same number of mistakes; his just came at the wrong time. That defense, however, will have to fix a lot of things this week in order to slow down an almost equally-impressive passing attack from RGIII. Fortunately, the Redskin defense is nothing like the Broncos’, and it should show this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 34-24

 

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3):

Despite losing Ahmad Bradhsaw for the season and what appears to be Reggie Wayne starting to show his age, the Colts were able to light up one of the league’s best defenses last week, even with Andrew Luck still struggling to find the 300-yard mark. The Colts were gashed at will by Seattle’s run game, however, and given that no team has been able to slow down Philip Rivers’ aerial assault thus far, Indy will need to fix that this week in order to have a chance in San Diego.

The Chargers have had some trouble playing a full 60 minutes this year, blowing a huge lead against Houston then having to make late comebacks against both Dallas and Oakland. However, they also have something that most Indianapolis opponents haven’t: a passing game. In the Colts’ only true passing test of the season, against Miami in Week 2, they fell behind early and were unable to fight back. Rivers will only be an upgrade, and he has the added use of his backs as weapons, which Miami never showed. Look for the Chargers to pull off a high-scoring upset here.

San Diego Chargers: 34-30