NFL Predictions - Week 5

 

Last Week: 10-5

Overall: 40-23

 

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1):

I love this matchup. New Orleans seems like it’s clicking on all cylinders. Not many secondaries are playing better than the Saints’ right now, Drew Brees is Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham may be the best pure talent in the league this year, and Darren Sproles finally got around to saying hey.

That said, as well as New Orleans is playing, the Bears look like they may be able to expose some holes. Matt Forte looks like he’s on his way to a career year, and the Saints’ run D is far from good. Even better for the Bears, despite a couple of serious injuries in the defense’s front seven, it should be more than capable of holding the Saints abysmal running attack in check, forcing Brees to air it out in what should be pretty terrible conditions on Sunday. The Bears should be able to keep it close but are going to need a little bit of luck to keep from dropping two straight

New Orleans Saints: 30-24

 

New England Patriots (4-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2):

So that team we saw beat Atlanta on Monday night. Who were they? Kenbrell Thompkins and Julian Edelman were taking turns slashing the Falcons’ secondary, which had done a pretty good job of holding Drew Brees in check, to pieces, Stevan Ridley finally started to wake up and LeGarette Blount decided to use his talent once again. Now with Danny Amendola back (at least till he sneezes too hard and cracks a rib), if those performances weren’t flukes, the Patriots should be incredibly dangerous from here on out, even with the warning signs the defense was throwing up late in the game.

The Bengals don’t have to hit panic mode just yet, but it’s getting close. Andy Dalton is technically performing better than last year, but that performance isn’t translating to points. AJ Green has been held largely in check since his phenomenal Week 1 performance and Giovani Bernard, while still effective, isn’t going to be able to save Cincinnati every week. The defense was gashed by the unbeaten, and obviously unrivaled, skills of Brian Hoyer last week, and Tom Brady is a far cry from a career backup. The Bengals should still be able to climb back on top of the worst division in the NFL, but they’ll have to do it from behind.

New England Patriots: 24-18

 

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2):

I don’t quite wanna say this for fear of jinxing it, but Broncos aside, the Lions look like the most complete offense in the league when Reggie Bush is on the field. With him, Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford all playing at this level, it’s nearly impossible for an imposing defense to slow them down, even if, like Chicago did last Sunday, it’s able to capitalize on mistakes. The problem is traveling into Lambeau the week after a Packers’ bye with a still-clearly suspect secondary. Chris Houston and Louis Delmas have led a much-improved backfield, but that’s not going to be enough to stop all of Aaron Rodgers’ weapons.

Green Bay may be sitting at 1-2, but two road games against two playoff teams tends to have that effect on even the best of teams. Now, though, Green Bay had a week to focus on what may well be another playoff team, this time at home. Eddie Lacy and Jermichael Finley should both be on the field Sunday, and it’s going to be hard for Detroit to keep up, healthy three-headed monster and all.

Green Bay Packers: 34-30

 

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1):

Kansas City has to be fully prepared for a trap game this week. Coming off a huge blowout of the Giants, traveling to LP Field and facing a team missing its starting quarterback all seem like a great setup, but the Chiefs have been winning in a specific way this season: Making turnovers without committing them. Alex Smith and the offense have one turnover – and I still don’t think that was a pick last Sunday – but they go up against a team that’s made a living on turnovers this season. No team can sustain this kind of offensive efficiency, and the Chiefs will have to do just that to keep the Titans from turning this into an offensive struggle.

On the other side, I honestly don’t think that losing Jake Locker will hurt that much. Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t add the running dimension Locker does, but he’s still a mobile quarterback, and he was still a 3,500-yard passer with a subpar receiving corps in Buffalo. If Fitzpatrick can maintain a modicum of accuracy this game and the Titans’ D continues to perform the way it has through the first quarter, the Titans should be able to snap the Chiefs unbeaten season on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans: 23-20

 

Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1):

What a comeback by Seattle on Sunday. Houston did its fair share to lose that game, but the second half showed that the Seahawks have gone from a good 2012 team to a championship-caliber one in 2013. A defense that might as well have been a Walmart-brand sieve in the first half all of a sudden closed off everything, and Russell Wilson made game manager look like an enviable position, helping put the Hawks in position to win that game.

The Colts meanwhile, did everything they needed to take a win in Jacksonville and more. Let’s not understate this: The Jaguars are a bad, bad team, but Indianapolis never left that game in doubt. A week after throttling the Niners in San Francisco, Indy looks like it knows just how to compensate for the holes in its game, and that’s exactly what will need to happen against Seattle this week. For all the Hawks’ talents, they still struggle on the road, and the Colts should have plenty of talent to exploit that. Plus, Andrew Luck isn’t gonna throw a silly pick-six with time winding down.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3):

There’s still not much to say about Jacksonville. Trading off one of you incredibly talented tackles so that you get something out of him before he left for free agency is a good move, but that really shouldn’t be the biggest positive for your team on any given week. The Blaine Gabbert experiment needs to end, the Jags have to figure out how to start getting MJD the ball more, and Justin Blackmon can’t come back soon enough. But none of those are gonna happen this week.

It’s kinda scary that, as bad as the Rams have looked the last couple weeks, they’re still double-digit favorites over Jacksonville. However, the Rams do have some solid upside. They have a defense that houses serious potential and, if they can ever get the run game sorted, they have a fantastic passing attack led by Sam Bradford. That alone should be enough to carry this team this week.

St. Louis Rams: 24-10

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1):

That’s much more along the lines of what I expect from Joe Flacco. Throw for 350 yards, but toss five interceptions along the way. I said last year, I hated the move to dump Cam Cameron as OC, and even though the Ravens won the Super Bowl, it’s hard to believe that they wouldn’t at least be a little bet off offensively now. Ray Rice is having an atrocious year, and Joe Flacco simply cannot carry this offense, especially without a true WR1 threat. The defense clearly has talent and is slowly coming together, but that’s going to take a little while.

As for Miami, it’s again important to not blow games out of proportion. The Saints put together their first complete game against Miami Monday night, and there was no way to account for Darren Sproles. As silly as it may sound, the Dolphins’ offense looks like an almost complete package – though a little more run support would be nice – and the defense, with all starters on the field, is something to be feared, especially at home. Look for Joe Flacco to be running for his life this week.

Miami Dolphins: 23-14

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4):

I don’t even know how to pick this one. Philadelphia’s offense is there, we’ve all seen it perform. But at the same time, it’s simply not sustainable, especially with the defense the Eagles are fielding. Sunday’s game at Denver was a perfect example: The defense simply couldn’t stop Peyton Manning and, because of this, the offense was able to get almost no rest from its relentless up-tempo pace, which doesn’t work with a bunch of beat-up and huge 25+-year olds.

The Giants’ problem is more simple: Nothing is working. The D-line has no presence, making the secondary’s job that much harder, and Eli Manning has to force plays, since they have absolutely no run game. The bright side for New York is that Philly’s defense is so bad, Eli and Co. should be able to run up enough points to keep up, then pull away in the second half.

New York Giants: 34-30

 

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2):

I know they beat up on a bad Giants team before the bye, but that was a perfect storm waiting to happen. The Panthers have what’s shaping out to be a very good defense in all aspects, and Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams are leading a rushing attack that almost hides the lack of a passing game. This is a team that, if not playoff bound this season, will be making waves in the next year or two.

On Arizona’s side, though, I don’t know if there’s a worse 2-2 team in football. The Cardinals snuck by a good Lions team at home – because that’s just what the Lions do – and got away with one in Tampa, but were also obliterated by the Saints and beaten by what’s now a clearly struggling Rams squad. I still firmly believe that Carson Palmer will find some measure of chemistry with his receivers soon, but the run game has to pick up for that to happen. It doesn’t look likely that Arizona will win many defensive games this year with the injuries to its defense, though, and that’s exactly what Carolina is bringing to the table.

Carolina Panthers: 20-17

 

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2):

There’s not much that can be said about Denver that I haven’t already, and now they go up against a Dallas team that was completely exposed against San Diego last week. Monte Kiffin is a fantastic DC, and he’ll make adjustments, but there is no way his defense can handle the number of options Manning will be hitting them with this week.

However, Dallas does have an offensive attack, even with Miles Austin at half speed, that can potentially keep up with the Broncos’ assault. Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray are likely the second- and third-best athletes on the field and will be able to keep Manning off the field for some extended period of time. Unfortunately, home-field advantage doesn’t work quite right in Dallas, and that’s what the Cowboys are gonna need to pull this upset off.

Denver Broncos: 34-20

 

Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2):

Houston’s flaws have been horrifically exposed the last two week. The defense has holes like Swiss cheese, and Matt Schaub, for all his passing yards this year, is making mistake after mistake. The Texans seemed determine to turn this into Schaub’s team, and while Arian Foster was dealing with a nagging injury, this made sense, but Schaub has always been a manager, not a game-changer, and if Gary Kubiak continues to push him into 40+ passes a game, these kinds of letdowns will keep happening.

On the flip side, the Niners seem to have finally righted the ship by absolutely crushing the Rams in St. Louis last Thursday. The run game looks healthy, Colin Kaepernick finally acted like a quarterback, and the defense finally figured out how to stop all the short-yardage passing it’s been giving up in recent weeks. The Texans have historically been bad against a big-play quarterback, and this week should only help to boost Kap’s confidence from here on out.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-20

 

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3):

So San Diego beats a decent-at-best Cowboys team at home, having to surge from behind to do so, and all of a sudden this is a playoff-caliber team? Nun-unh. Philip Rivers is having a career year, but that defense is about as bad as it ever was under Norv Turner, and the Chargers are going to have to stop people to win games. As good as Rivers is playing, he only has one true receiving threat, and no legitimate backfield threat to take pressure off.

The Raiders defense, however, looks almost solid right now. Aberrancy against the Broncos aside, Oakland has been fairly stout against teams like Indianapolis and Washington, and with the return of Terelle Pryor, the offense has enough dimensions, even without Darren McFadden, to give a team like the Chargers fits. Look for a big day from Pryor and a big win from this Raiders squad.

Oakland Raiders: 27-23

 

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3):

I don’t like all this primetime matchups with bad teams. Seriously, who thought the New York Jets would be good enough to merit a Monday Night Football slot? For all his critics, Geno Smith is actually performing well, given the tools around him, but he’s still young and he’s making youthful mistakes, and that means the Jets are going to keep struggling to put points on the board, especially against a defense like the Falcons’.

Atlanta is coming off a nearly astounding comeback to the Patriots, but that loss has to instill a sense of desperation in them. Teams that start 1-3 don’t typically make the playoffs, and Atlanta knows this. Matt Ryan is having yet another fantastic year, and I doubt even the Jets’ defense will be able to hold him off, which means Smith will have to win the game, which I don’t think he’s ready to do just yet.

Atlanta Falcons: 24-13