NFL Predictions - Week 4

Welp, last week was terrible. I called three pretty big upsets, but that was offset by missing about twice as many non-upsets. In my defense, though, everyone wrote Cleveland off, and nobody thought Minnesota was actually that bad. After two games where the Giants shot themselves in the foot, you had to think eventually they would stop making mistakes (they didn’t), and you would think the same about the Steelers (nor did they). That said, Week 3 is one of the defining moments of an NFL season. You start to see who’s shaping out to be real contenders and who was simply off to a hot start, which should make this week much easier to follow. Sadly, no breaking blockbuster trades to wax on this week.

 

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 30-18

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-2):

I was talking to a friend about the Niners this week, and we both agree, this team is a complete anomaly. There’s no question that the team is phenomenally talented, though with several glaring holes (made larger by Aldon Smith’s departure), and 1-2 isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, getting blown out twice in a row, the latter at home against a team that had just finished being exposed, is just inexcusable. My best guess is that this is a team that hyped its own self up over the preseason – and knowing Jim Harbaugh, this isn’t a reach – and instead of coming out and focusing on fixing its flaws, it just continued chugging along, ignoring the issues, like lack of receivers and lack of Dashon Goldson, thinking it was good enough to keep going. Well, it’s not, and that realization will hit them sooner or later.

Meanwhile, the Rams are about what I expected. This is not a bad team, but it’s playing in a phenomenally tough division and has been on the road twice so far, against two potential playoff teams. Now here’s where it gets tricky, though. The Rams had the best division record in the NFC West last year, taking out both San Fran and Seattle at home, and this Rams team is better than last year’s. That said, the Rams still haven’t identified a run game, and they’ll be playing on a short week against a team that’s more talented than them. San Francisco should take this in a sloppy one.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-2):

Like I said in Week 1, I don’t want to overhype a team based off one blowout victory. The Ravens were better than they’d played, and Houston had a lot of flaws that were waiting to be exposed. This Ravens team, especially without Ray Rice (injury) and Anquan Boldin (free agency) has issues. Bernard Pierce should find it fairly easy to run the ball against this Bills defense, but Flacco has to start connecting with Torrey Smith if they wanna keep up with the Bills offense.

Here’s the thing about Baltimore’s defense: It’s not bad, but it’s gotten lucky. Matt Schaub was uncharacteristically mistake-prone last week, and Cleveland’s receivers apparently don’t have much professional experience at receiving. Buffalo, however, could spell trouble. Even if C.J. Spiller doesn’t go, Fred Jackson is dynamite, and EJ Manuel is quickly showing himself to be an NFL-caliber quarterback. Look for the Bills to keep themselves in the conversation for another week.

Buffalo Bills: 24-20

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2):

I’m still trying to process just how bad of a game that was between two very good squads. Cincnnati capitalized on horrific Green Bay mistakes to jump out to a big lead, only to come back with arguably worse mistakes of their own, allowing Aaron Rodgers to potentially earn a comeback win in one of his worst games in the last three years. AJ Green took the better part of three quarters to show up, but Giovani Bernard has proven himself more than just a sub-in, and Andy Dalton is playing much better than he did last year. Don’t expect Cinci to have one of those types of offensive games again for a while.

Alright, I felt like I was in the Matrix watching Cleveland play last week. A large part of it was that I didn’t fully appreciate how bad Minnesota’s defense was, but another part was that this Cleveland team actually looked like a team. The defense played well, as it usually does, but Josh Gordon came roaring out of his suspension, making the Vikings’ secondary look silly and Brian Hoyer look like an all-pro in the process. This team did not suddenly become even a middle-of-the-pack team, but it should at least be competitive until teams figure out how to slow down Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon.

Cincinnati Bengals: 27-23

 

Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1):

Same thing I said about Baltimore: Let’s not make that Bears win out to be more than it was. The Bears’ defense is phenomenally opportunistic, and they’ve been that way for the better part of a decade. However, Ben Roethlisberger made some bad, bad, bad decisions Sunday night, and it helped to gloss over the fact that, yet again, the Bears seemed to have trouble stopping the pass – they’re 24^th in the league there. However, the Bears’ defense does look incredibly efficient. It didn’t need to do much to win last week, but the capability is there. This has definitely become a playoff-caliber team.

However, it’s not unbeatable. The Lions front seven has shown itself to be phenomenal at shutting down runs between the tackles – if the runner can break contain, it’s another matter entirely, though – and Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley spearhead a line that will give every opposing line trouble this year. Cutler’s managed to avoid being in trouble for much of the season, and Forte has been able to bounce runs outside a lot. That shouldn’t be easy in Ford Field, and it will take Cutler going to the air against a weak Lions secondary to win. On the flip side, Nate Burleson is likely out this week, but Ryan Broyles isn’t necessarily a step down. With Reggie Bush being healthy, the Lions’ playbook expands dramatically, and as long as they can play mistake-free, it’ll be nearly impossible for the Bears to slow them down.

Detroit Lions: 21-17

 

New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0):

I don’t quite know what to say about the Giants. They lost their first two games, granted, but those were both difficult games to win, and they were competitive in both. And then Carolina happened. Eli Manning looks like Jake Delhomme in the 2009 playoffs, seemingly unable to differentiate between offensive and defensive targets. The offensive line is as porous as it gets, there’s no run game, and the defense just looks lost for most of the game. This is the same football team as last year, but it is in no way the same team as last year.

The Chiefs’ defense passed a major test in Philadelphia last week, holding Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense to an incredibly slow, and low-scoring, pace. But what’s more remarkable is that the offense has yet to commit a turnover. Think about that. For 180 minutes of play, not a single Kansas City Chief has made a big mistake. The Chiefs don’t have the most explosive offense, but if you’re an opposing defense, it’s hard to win if the offense never gives you an opportunity to capitalize on, and that’s what makes the Chiefs so good right now.

Kansas City Chiefs: 17-7

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (LONDON):

I like to think both these teams are so bad, we just kicked them out of the country until one of them resolves its issues. But seriously, I don’t think Pitt is this bad. It should be 2-1 right now, but with the slew of injuries the Steelers have had, along with the number of mistakes Big Ben has made, it’s difficult for even one of the league’s better defenses to earn a win. That should change, though. Heath Miller is back, which takes a lot of pressure off Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, and Le’Veon Bell is finally active, which should give the Steelers a shadow of a two-dimensional offense.

Minnesota’s games go like this: Give the ball to Adrian Peterson. Have him score the first touchdown. Quit. Great for fans, because they can leave after a quarter, terrible for the team, since those other three quarters count toward their W-L. Christian Ponder is looking miles better than he did last year, but this is still largely a one-dimensional offense – albeit one that matches up well with the Pitt defense – and the secondary is atrocious. Sorry, London.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3):

I expected there to be a learning curve for the Cardinals offense, but it wasn’t supposed to be this steep. Even with Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield, there is no run game, and Carson Palmer is Struggling. Granted, Larry Fitzgerald being hampered hurts, but Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts are not bad options. What was supposed to be a top-10 defense was shredded by Drew Brees, the first time he’s done that all season. Against a tough Tampa defense in Tampa, it doesn’t look to get any better any faster for the Cards, either.

Tampa Bay has officially pulled the plug. Josh Freeman was benched, and Mike Glennon has the starting nod. The two players are of a similar vein, so it shouldn’t affect the actual playbook too much, but having your first career start when the coach’s seat is starting to heat up is a tough motivation. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are also dealing with injuries and are both questionable as well. However, Tampa’s defense, Week 3 aside, has been extremely good, and will likely be able to capitalize on an inefficient Arizona offense this week and let Glennon get a win in his first start.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-13

 

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3):

I’m not entirely sure who showed up in San Francisco last week, but it didn’t look like the Colts of the first two weeks. What amazes me was that the Colts were able to win going away, when Frank Gore was able to average almost 8 yards per carry against them in the first half. I didn’t watch the game, but it seems to me that poor playcalling on San Fran’s part was almost as much a factor as good defensive play. On the other side of the ball, though, Ahmad Bradshaw reminded everybody what he’s like when he’s healthy. Once Trent Richardson gets up to speed, the Colts could have a very dangerous offense.

I don’t like writing about teams that are this bad, because it just gets repetitive, but I did that last week for Cleveland, and I got embarrassed. So here it is, Jacksonville, here’s your blurb. Cecil Shorts is awesome, especially when second-string cornerbacks are guarding him in the third quarter, and MJD was once a phenomenal running back and you’re wasting his talents right now.

Indianapolis Colts: 24-7

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1):

The Seahawks will get their first true road test of the season this week, but I wouldn’t expect much different from them. Marshawn Lynch will show up when they need him, Russell Wilson will take the term “game manager” and make it seem like an honorable title, and the Seahawks D should have no trouble containing a banged-up and mistake-ridden Texans offense.

For the past two seasons, the Texans have relied on two major facets: a phenomenal all-around defense, and a run-heavy offense with quarterback play that simply is mistake-free. Both of those are shot this season. The defense looks lost, and I’m not entirely sure why. Arian Foster is still running slowly – though Ben Tate should be able to make Seattle work a bit – and Matt Schaub is not playing like Matt Schaub. Schaub was unable to move that ball against a fairly weak secondary in Baltimore, and this week only gets tougher, especially with Andre Johnson’s injuries still lingering.

Seattle Seahawks: 21-17

 

New York Jets (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1):

I know it wasn’t against a very weak Bills defense, but I liked what I saw in Geno Smith last week. He made a couple of huge plays (that the Bills couldn’t capitalize on), but overall was very effective and made himself a matchup nightmare for the Bills. Santonio Holmes and Chris Ivory injuries will make the offense a little weaker than it looked last week, especially against a tough Titans squad. Manuel’s dual-threat ability seemed to give the Jets’ defense some pause, though, and that doesn’t bode well heading into Jake Locker’s home. 

I picked the Titans to win last week, but I didn’t expect them to do it on defensive laurels. This is a defense that was one of the worst in the league last year, and while a few upgrades were made, it’s largely the same squad, though with a new defensive coordinator. Against San Diego though, the Titans were able to shut down what had been a very effective Philip Rivers passing attack, and Jake Locker and Chris Johnson were able to do just enough to win, incredible 35-yard touchdown to Justin Hunter included. This week, expect more of the same, as both defenses should carry the load, but with the Titans offense able to do just a little bit more.

Tennessee Titans: 17-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0):

So it officially took two weeks to figure out how to stop this offenses, huh? Props to Chip Kelly for implementing it and in a couple years, when he has a younger squad, this should be very effective, but as of now, it seems like it takes perfect execution by Michael Vick for this to work, even with LeSean McCoy literally looking like he walked out of Madden. In the Mile High City, though, this offense will be a problem. Successful or no, it means the defense will be on the field the majority of the game, and that’s not something you can do in Denver against Peyton Manning’s offense.

The Broncos are as good as the Jaguars are bad, and I really don’t have much else to say. Manning just finished arguably the best three-game stretch in NFL history, and with three legitimate starting running backs, it’s impossible for defenses to focus on stopping him. Defensively, Denver seems to have fixed just about the holes Baltimore exposed in Week 1, and even managed to hold a goal-line stand against a pretty good read-option quarterback. Philadelphia will likely get its yards, but don’t look for the Eagles to match the Broncos point-for-point.

Denver Broncos: 40-23

 

Washington Redskins (0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2):

I’m a little confused by RGIII’s timidity. He’s on pace for 5,000 yards as a dropback passer, but every time he plants, I can feel him flinching, and that’s costing the Skins heavily, as it seems to take him several drives to acclimate himself. Additionally, this whole concept of using him as a pocket passer is just silly. He got hurt, yes, but that’s the risk he runs with the style of game he plays. Making him one-dimensional makes this offense very predictable, and when you have, through three games, the worst defense in the history of the NFL, that’s very bad.

Here’s the problem with Oakland right now (other than it’s not very good). With Terrelle Pryor, this offense is unpredictable enough to give opposing defenses fits, which allows Oakland to at least look competitive. With Matt Flynn, the passing game likely takes a huge step up, but without marquee receivers, it’s still fairly easy to cover. Since Pryor is practicing right now, and looks like he may be probable, I’m going to say that Oakland should get the win here.

Oakland Raiders: 34-24

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2):

For one game a year, DeMarco Murray looks like the best back in the league. Unfortunately, there are no more Rams on the schedule, so Murray just goes back to being a fairly good player. However, Tony Romo has been playing very efficiently this season, and even with Miles Austin struggling along, and Dez doubled all game long, he’s managed to make this a primarily airborne offense. That should get easier this week, since San Diego has given up the most passing touchdowns of any defense in the league to this point.

This Chargers squad has already proven itself to be better than last year’s, I think, but  the offense is still largely one-dimensional and extremely thin. Philip Rivers has actually played like a 4,000-yard, 25-TD passer this year, but Ryan Mathews and just about the entire defense have looked incapable of paying 60 minutes. However, even though Monte Kiffin’s defense looked excellent against the Rams, the Chargers should have enough weapons to make this game a track meet, and so far, the Chargers have the market on that kind of experience.

San Diego Chargers: 33-28

 

New England Patriots (3-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2):

So Rob Gronkowski should be back this week … right? Maybe? Kind of? This is where the Patriots’ mysteriousness gets to be annoying; however, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson finally looked like NFL receivers last week, and Stevan Ridley seems to finally be gaining Bill Belichick’s  trust again. The Jarod Mayo-led defense is the real story so far this season. Tampa Bay is not a good football team, but holding that squad completely ineffective for most of the game is still a feat, and it should be able to give the struggling Falcons fits this week.

Atlanta should be 3-0 right now. It had two opportunities to win against the Saints and Matt Bryant’s first missed field goal of the season versus Miami very well may have cost the Falcons that win as well. Point is, this team is not playing a full four quarters, despite arguably being the better team in each matchup. Roddy White and Stephen Jackson injuries hurt, but Matt Ryan has been making do without them and should be able to do so through this week. Home-field advantage should be able to give the Falcons’ defense an edge against a similarly questionable Patriots offense, as well.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-24

 

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0):

What I love about the Dolphins so far is that they’re a very good 3-0, with two road wins and two wins against possible playoff teams, and yet they have no standout players. Cameron Wake is leading a monstrosity of a defensive line, and Ryan Tannehill has been effective enough to get the job done without any standout performances on the offensive side of the ball. The problem I have with Miami, though, is the same: Nothing stands out about this squad, and that’s going to be an issue heading into the Superdome against a team that’s been terrific against the pass and features one of the great passing attacks of all time.

Speaking of, it seems like Drew Brees finally righted the ship, and he did so against what, supposedly, is a very good secondary in Arizona. His receiving corps is still questionable, with Kenny Stills, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore all seemingly doing their best to avoid a stoplight, but Jimmy Graham has been, bar none, the best offensive player in the game, in my opinion. Pierre Thomas stepped up well last week, and Darren Sproles seems to be waiting in reserve for when the Saints really need to use his talent. The Dolphins have been very good through three games at this point, but there’s just too much going on in New Orleans’ offense to keep this from being a track meet.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

NFL Predictions - Week 3

Well, at least I don’t have to search for something to write about this week. Seriously, what the heck, Cleveland? I understand the decision to regroup and restart. That doesn’t bother me. But to do so after two games, with a substantially weaker deal than you likely could/should have gotten for Trent Richardson? It makes no sense. At least get a third or fourth out of this as well. Now all your chips are on the table for two first-round picks next year (and five in the following three), but it’s not even a guarantee that you’ll get Teddy Bridgewater. As for the Colts, well, wow. Richardson immediately gives Indy the depth it needs to go from being a good offense to being an elite one.  The major knock on Richardson is that he’s only averaged 3.5 YPC in his 14 games in the league. A) Broken ribs make it hard to run, B) when your team has literally no other threat, it’s extremely easy to load the box and man up the rest of Cleveland’s weapons. That can’t happen in Indy. Even if Richardson experiences a dip in production, defenders can’t disrespect him, because he will run them over. And if they overload the box, Andrew Luck will pick them apart. I don’t see how this isn’t a huge win and steal for the Colts.

Anyway, onto more mundane things, like picks.

 

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 23-9

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1):

I find it ironic that the Chiefs are doing exactly what everyone expected (playing safe, smart offense and shutting teams down with an athletic defense), yet everyone seems to be shocked by the results. Let’s keep in mind, though, that the Cowboys and Jaguars are hardly elite. Alex Smith has yet to make a turnover, which will change, and there seem to be no significant injuries on this squad, which, given recent history, will also change.

I love the storyline of Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia, and had I not seen the Eagle’s offense in the last two weeks, I’d think the stage was perfectly set for a redemption story for him. Unfortunately, Kelly’s offense is the real deal (defense being another matter entirely). Tonight should make for lots of fun for everyone involved, but home field advantage plus a faster offense that can play from behind mean the Eagles should be able to take one from their old coach.

Philadelphia Eagles: 24-20

 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1):

If you watched Green Bay play at all last week, you got to see Denver 2.0. It looked more like exposing Washington’s porous defense than anything else, though. James Starks, subbing in for the concussed Eddie Lacy, ran over and around the Skins, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was Aaron Rodgers being able to rip one of the NFL’s better secondaries to shreds. That said, the defense has a lot to answer for, and walking into Cincinnati incapable of stopping AJ Green could be a problem.

Cincinnati is weird. The Bengals look good on paper, but the result just doesn’t seem to be there. They gave up an 11-point lead (granted, on the road) in Chicago, then seemed to play a mediocre-at-best game against Pittsburgh at home. Ike Taylor managed to single-handedly shut down Green, but Giovani Bernard decided to take over the game, scoring twice on eight touches. That said, Cincinnati’s defense is as good as everyone thought it would be, and it’s doubtful that Rodgers will be throwing for 400 yards again.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2):

Nope.

Minnesota’s got problems. Christian Ponder looks better than he did last year, and Adrian Peterson is slowly starting to look like his 2012 form, but that defense … yikes. Thankfully, they get to play a team that’s openly trying to get the first pick in next year’s draft.

Minnesota Vikings: 24-7

 

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1):

Sadly I didn’t get to see much of the Chargers game last Sunday, but it seemed to live up to track meet hype and, surprisingly, the Chargers managed to not choke away the lead. That bodes well heading into Tennessee, which very much did choke away the lead last week. San Diego historically dominates this matchup, but this is a new-look Titans, and Philip Rivers will have to find some consistency or Ryan Mathews will have to wake up this week.

Tennessee, dare I say it, looks like a potential contender through two games. Jake Locker looks like himself (55-percent passer, about 150 yards per game) and Chris Johnson finally looks decent again, but it’s the defense that seems to be rising up. Aside from a late-game barrage by DeAndre Hopkins last week, Tennessee thoroughly outplayed the Texans’ offense. This week should be a litmus test for how the Titans’ game works out this season, and I think the Titans have enough of a look to make a run.

Tennessee Titans: 20-17

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1):

How is that a team that didn’t have an offensive coordinator a year ago looks worse on defense this year?  The Rams have been absolutely blitzed through the air two weeks in a row, and while Sam Bradford looks like he’ll stick around as a serviceable quarterback, he and the Rams simply do not have enough offensive pieces to keep up with the number of yards their defense is giving up.

What makes matters worse is that the Cowboys are yet another aerial-assault team and they’re much healthier than the Falcons are. The Cowboys defense hasn’t yet established an identity under new DC Monte Kiffin, but it should get there, and hosting the Rams should give them another week to gather themselves.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0:

You know, the Bucs are killing my pick percentage this year. More importantly, though, they’re killing themselves. This team should be 2-0 right now, but thanks to a bone-headed defensive mistake and poor play-calling down the stretch, they’re 0-2. What really bothers me is that Josh Freeman is taking the flak for “not winning” in this situation. In both games he led game-winning/game-sealing drives, and his team failed to come through. This is an offense that, while not one of the league’s best, is one of the most dependable, and any argument to the contrary is based solely on win-loss rather than actual performance.

The Patriots, ironically enough, seem to be in a different situation. Neither the league’s best nor most dependable offense, New England has squeaked by to a 2-0 start, thanks largely to terrible division foes. The defense has carried the Patriots to this point, but it also hasn’t been seriously challenged. That changes this week, and look for Tampa to finally figure out how to hang on to a game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-16

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0):

It’s hard to argue that Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer have manufactured results in the desert. Even without Larry Fitzgerald in the second half of last week’s game versus the Lions, Palmer was able to engineer a game-winning drive (against an admittedly outmatched secondary). Rashard Mendenhall looks like he’s still got something left in the tank, and the Cardinals defense is as good as was expected. Unfortunately, it’s not going to help this week.

The Saints look incredibly good. They’ve only scored 40 points in their two division wins, but that’s the point. Drew Brees has yet to have a good, or even average, game by his standards, and it’s been largely incredible defensive play, inspired by DC Rob Ryan, that has allowed New Orleans to take an early lead in the NFC. That shouldn’t change this week, and Brees should be able to find some semblance of his old self in the Superdome.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2):

We got to see what life was like without Reggie Bush Sunday, and it looked terribly familiar. The defense seems to have made absolutely no progress from last year, and a front seven that managed to hold Adrian Peterson to just 15 yards on 17 carries – after 78 on one – managed to get picked apart by Mendenhall. Bush claims he’s healthy enough to go, and he’ll have to be if the Lions hope to keep up with Washington.

RGIII’s numbers are there, but a lot of that is late-game when the games have largely been decided. He’s clearly having some trouble with the knee, despite his claims to the contrary and it’s a problem, because the Redskins secondary isn’t up to the standard it was in previous years. (Granted, they’ve had to stop Desean Jackson and Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/James Jones so far, and that’s difficult.) Fortunately, they hit the Lions without a fully healthy Bush and a special teams that easily lost the game Sunday.

Washington Redskins: 31-20

 

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2):

The Giants have 10 turnovers through two games. That’s phenomenally bad, and it seems to be the singlehanded reason as to why New York has started 0-2 this year. Their troubles don’t’ get any easier, as the Panthers, for all their own troubles, seem to have embraced a solid strong defense on both facets. Eli Manning and David Wilson will have to find a way to temper their turnovers if they want to avoid an 0-3 start, something I don’t think they’ll be able to do.

Carolina is in a similar boat. Both times, the Panthers should have won, and both times they managed to give up a fourth-quarter lead. It’s arguable that the Bills’ loss came down to a silly pass interference by Luke Kuechly, but had Ron Rivera not gonna ultra-conservative in the waning minutes on offense, they wouldn’t have been in that position. Carolina looks like a solid team with weak leadership, but this week should ease some concerns for the time being.

Carolina Panthers: 21-17

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1):

The Texans are thanking the Patriots right now. If not for New England, Houston would be the shakiest undefeated team in the league. Both wins have come on the last play of the game – the only time in NFL history that’s happened, by the way – and both have come after extremely sloppy first halves. And now Andre Johnson is experiencing concussion-like symptoms – though he is supposed to go this week. Matt Schaub looks like he did in the pre-Arian Foster days and Foster and Ben Tate are splitting what should be the best ground attack in the league, but there are still some problems to address on both sides, and Baltimore may have the talent to exploit that.

The great thing about Bernard Pierce is that the Ravens don’t necessarily need Ray Rice to have a two-dimensional offense, though it would be nice. The Ravens are having their defensive troubles – some incredible miscues by the Browns are the only reason they’re not 0-2 – but offensively, should Joe Flacco get the kinks out of his game, the Ravens can still compete. Look for the Ravens to pull off the upset at home here.

Baltimore Ravens: 21-20

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0):

This is just another game in a long line of what should be incredibly close this week, and the loss of Stephen Jackson only makes this one even more so. Atlanta is far more talented than the Dolphin right now, but Roddy White is clearly not 100 percent and Jackson won’t even be taking the field. The Falcons’ D looks more than serviceable, but it’s hard to gauge that, given all the garbage-time yards they gave up to the Rams last week. 

The Dolphins are a nice 2-0, but it’s no reason to get overconfident. The Colts are clearly having troubles of their own (see: Trent Richardson trade), but a win is a win. That said, I’m still not sold on Lamar Miller (who gets 3 yards on 10 carries against anyone?) and Mike Wallace seems to be an accident waiting to happen. Cameron Wake and the rest of the Dolphins D-line look like a nightmare to block, though, and the Saints showed how much trouble that could cause Matt Ryan. I think the Falcons will pull this one out, but it should come down to the final drive.

Atlanta Falcons: 21-20

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1):

If the reports I’ve seen aren’t exaggerated, EJ Manuel is the real deal, and Buffalo fans have to be pumped about that. He benefited from a complete defensive collapse last week, but still has a game-winning drive on his resume after only two starts. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson still both look fantastic, and this Buffalo secondary, somehow, some way, seems to actually be good. (Keep in mind, half of them are not starters right now.) On top of that, Mario Williams has retaken the mantle of “Super Mario” with his 4-5-sack performance against Cam last week.

As much as the Bills are trending up, the Jets are trending just as quickly downward. Geno Smith looks find, but you cannot rely on him to throw 35 passes against a strong Patriots secondary, in the pouring rain, and be mistake free. That falls on coaching, and that’s where New York is in trouble. The Jets’ D will be one of the league’s best this year, but with a sloppy offense, that hardly matters.

Buffalo Bills: 17-13

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1):

You’ve seen my thoughts on the Colts after the Richardson trade, and I firmly believe them. It just won’t happen this week.

The Niners coming off a terribly lopsided loss at Seattle for the second trip in a row. That kind of loss will not sit well with a team like this, and it’s not likely Jim Harbaugh will need to say much to motivate his squad this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0):

This one’s gonna get ugly and fast. This is the largest spread the NFL has seen in 20 years, and it’s only Week 3. That’s pathetic, Jacksonville.

Seattle Seahawks: 31-6

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2):

Though the Bears are undefeated, they’ve only looked like a playoff team for about 60 percent of their season so far. A late-game Minnesota collapse, coupled with a rare turnover by AD, gave the Bears a chance to escape with a second win, only a week after having to fight back from an 11-point hole to beat the Bengals. Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett look phenomenal so far, though, and the defense is still making turnovers.

That said, the Steelers are as realistically a winless team as the Bears are an undefeated team. Pitt has absolutely no run game, but the defense is still one of the league’s best, and Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl titles for a reason. The Steelers are feeling a sense of desperation they haven’t had under Mike Tomlin’s reign, and that’s going to play a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-18

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0):

I don’t quite understand why this is a Monday night game. Nobody actually expected the Raiders to be playoff contenders did they? I mean, Darren McFadden, when healthy, is a top-5 back, and Terelle Pryor has shown he can make plays with both his feet and his arms, but the defense isn’t proven and the wide-receiving corps is mediocre at best.

Remember how I said people should calm down on the Broncos’ hype because hanging nearly 50 is almost always a fluke? Yeah, I can’t explain that happening twice. The Giants “held” Peyton Manning to 360 yards and a touchdown, so special teams and Knowshon Moreno simply stepped up and took over. This team has no glaring weaknesses – even the loss of Von Miller has been effectively masked – and it’s hard to see the Broncos losing a game at home this year.

Denver Broncos: 38-20

NFL Predictions - Week 2

Well that was a fun first week, and, I believe, the closest in NFL history (for at least Week 1) in terms of average margin of victory. We had a few upsets – here’s lookin’ at you, Lavonte David – but Chip Kelly’s debut aside, I wouldn’t say any other game created cause for alarm for any of the league’s frontrunners. We all expected Peyton Manning to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league this week, but I don’t think anyone predicted 460 yards and seven touchdowns. Add to that Eli Manning’s ridiculous 450 yards (and even more ridiculous interceptions), and you don’t have to look very far for the storyline of the week with this matchup. A couple of key injuries and benchings look like cause for alarm for some teams, but we’ll get to that as they come up. So here we go.

 

Last Week: 11-5-0

Overall: 11-5-0

 

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

So the Jets are 1-0, huh? That was just a shade surprising, but when the aforementioned David hit Geno Smith three steps out-of-bounds with seconds left on the clock, even these guys almost have to take the win home with them. Unlike New York’s 40+-point debut last year, nothing about this game really stood out to silence Jets detractors. The defense looked good, but not great, giving up over 150 yards to Vincent Jackson but otherwise shutting down a struggling Josh Freeman, and the offense did little except pick apart a secondary in the waning moments of the fourth quarter – a secondary that clearly hasn’t gelled or simply hasn’t improved from last season. Geno Smith looks somewhat promising, and he has too, given the new potential that Mark Sanchez’ season is likely over, but it’s nothing New York can confidently carry into Gillette Stadium tonight.

 

I’m a tad concerned if I’m New England, however. Stevan Ridley’s fumble was clearly an aberration, and subbing Shane Vereen in clearly didn’t hurt the team, but now Vereen has a broken wrist, and Belichick clearly wasn’t thrilled with Ridley’s actions last week. Additionally, Tom Brady looked almost lost on the field Sunday – most of Danny Amendola’s receptions came on the final drive and he hardly targeted his depleted tight-end unit at all – against a secondary unit that was featuring two backups. Jerrod Mayo and Co. look about as decent as they ever have, though, and that should be enough for the Patriots to easily walk out tonight, victory in hand.

New England Patriots: 24-13

 

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1):

Credit to the Rams: They withstood an all-out aerial assault from the new look Cardinals to not only win, but win in a shootout mote. Sam Bradford threw for 300 yards against what was considered a top defense heading into the season, and Jared Cook looks to finally be embracing his potential as an elite tight end – maybe having a quarterback that knows how to throw a ball has something to do with that; I’m not gonna make that reach, though. The only serious drawback on offense was Darryl Richardson, who, at 3.1 YPC clearly couldn’t get it going. I didn’t get a chance to see much of how St. Louis’ looked on defense, but Cortland Finnegan got burned time and again, and based off the number of targets Carson Palmer spread the ball too, the Rams are clearly going to struggle against top passing attacks this year, and that doesn’t bode well heading into Atlanta.

On the other side, Atlanta looked flummoxed by the Saints’ new-look D last week. A lot of that was the fact that Sean Payton was back and Rob Ryan was just debuting, but you have to worry a little about an offensive line that looked like a sieve. Stephen Jackson was clearly a valuable addition (fourth-quarter, goal-line drop aside), averaging 7 YPC, even with that line, but that’s offset by what seemed to be a pretty serious Roddy White injury. Even so, Harry Douglas stepped up last week, and Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones aren’t exactly second-fiddle receivers. And Matt Ryan is better than Carson Palmer, which means St. Louis is gonna be very hard-pressed to match Atlanta point for point this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-23

 

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1):

Like offense? You’ll love this game. The Seahawks defense held Cam Newton largely in check, but here’s the thing: Buffalo does not have Seattle’s defense. Its secondary looked weirdly impressive vs. Brady last week, but the Panthers are runners, and they’re gonna cram it down Buffalo’s throat play after play. DeAngelo Williams looked, at least, serviceable and you know Cam will make plenty of moves with his legs this week. Additionally, the Panthers, led by Luke Kuechly, looked formidable, slowing Marshawn Lynch almost to a stop and keeping Russell Wilson in check for the most part.

 

Buffalo has a lot to be hopeful about. First, they only lost to the Patriots by a little, a big improvement on recent years of losing to the Patriots by a lot. EJ Manuel didn’t look spectacular, but he looked solid, making plays with both sets of limbs and, most importantly, not looking flustered or making mistakes. The Bills lost, not on ineptitude, but simply because they went up against a better team. A cobbled-together secondary actually did its job, but the front end of that defense will be what keeps Buffalo from a decent season this year. All the pass defense in the world won’t help if and when Carolina logs 200 yards on the ground.

Carolina Panthers: 23-17

 

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0):

Well, it didn’t take long to figure out if Adrian Peterson could back up his goal of two straight historic seasons. But a 78-yard touchdown aside, the Vikings have a lot to be worried about. Peterson broke his first run because the Lions failed to contain him when hit the line-of-scrimmage. For literally every play following, the Lions – who, from what I saw, showed primarily seven- and eight-men fronts – were able to force the game onto Christian Ponders shoulders, holding Peterson to 15 yards on 17 carries for the rest of the game. Ponder threw for 236 yards, but a good chunk of that came in garbage time, and the Viking defense was simply shredded by Matt Stafford and Reggie Bush. Nothing about that game should make Vikings fans optimistic.

 

Chicago, for its occasional struggles, looked good against Cincinnati, especially when turnover-prone Jay Cutler managed to make an 11-point deficit vanish with almost no mistakes. Brandon Marhsall took a little bit to wake up, and Matt Forte struggled on the ground, but the key takeaway was zero sacks. We’ve never seen what Jay Cutler could do behind a good offensive line, but whatever Marc Trestman implemented, it could be dangerous for the rest of the NFC North. The Bears should gain an early bump on the division this week, so long as they can keep AD below 100.

Chicago Bears: 17-13

 

Washington Redskins (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0):

Lest the Redskins fans panic, I want to point out that Monday night was far more indicative of Philadelphia’s offensive prowess and RGIII’s shaking off the rust, than it was of a team in trouble. Washington’s D was gassed early, yes, but it was playing against an offense the NFL had literally never seen before. Once the Eagles wore themselves out a bit, the defense was much more capable, except against Lesean McCoy, and Griffin looked much more like himself in their second-half surge.

 

Unfortunately, the Skins are heading to Lambeau Field to face a Pack squad coming off a loss of its own. The Packers don’t have a running game that can rip the Skins to shreds, but they don’t need one with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers clearly don’t miss Greg Jennings, and even though Washington’s secondary is by far its best defensive aspect, Rodgers should still be able to put up enough points to match any of RGIII’s efforts.

Green Bay Packers: 31-28

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0):

And so begins a brutal three-game stretch for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill looked very good against a good Cleveland defense that was intent on taking away his primary receiving threat, but that running game… Yikes. Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller combined for less than 20 yards rushing. That will not win you games in this league.

 

Andrew Luck looked slightly schizophrenic in the Colts’ premiere versus Oakland. After looking nearly perfect on Indy’s first two scoring drives, the offense just seemed to shrivel up. Some of that may have been trying to coast to the win, but 18-of-23 for 178 yards is not a stat line you want to see from a quarterback who’s projected to top 4,000 yards, especially when it’s supposed to be your primary offense. While I’m more faithful in Indy fixing its passing attack before Miami fixes its run game, Tannehill looked more consistent and, though picking against Indy bit me all last year, I think Miami will surprise the Colts in Indianapolis.

Miami Dolphins: 21-17

*This originally said Indianapolis Colts, and I'm a little annoyed, because the site decided to not save my changes when I fixed it. Judge me at your discretion.

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0):

I think most people expected both these teams to be 1-0 coming into this game, but I don’t know if people expected the way it happened. Dallas won by forcing turnovers and not committing any of their own, while Kansas City simply destroyed the Jaguars in every facet of the game. Tony Romo looked solid, even with Dez Bryant doubled much of the game, and DeMarco Murray looked like he always looks when he’s healthy: very good.

 

Unlike Indy, Kansas City almost had to coast to the win to keep it from becoming a blowout. Blaine Gabbert clearly had issues in the game, but locking down Cecil Shorts and Maurice Jones-Drew completely still takes some impressive defense. A somewhat jarring injury to Jamaal Charles in the second half meant the end of the Chiefs primary offense, but even that wasn’t enough to keep them from racking up 28 points. The Chiefs are going to get a much tougher test against Monte Kiffin’s defense this week, but that defense relied heavily on turnovers to win last week, and Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles do not turn the ball over.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-20

 

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0):

I don’t have much to say about the Chargers, other than fits of laughter. That collapsing thing has to stop happening at some point, right? I mean, how does a quarterback go from throwing four first-half touchdowns to finishing under 50 percent and with fewer than 200 yards, as well as throwing the game-clinching pick-six?

 

So Chip Kelly? Yeah. Let’s talk about him, shall we? That offense looked phenomenal in the first half Monday night. On the first drive, by my watch, the Eagles ran at least 10 plays in under five real-time minutes. It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, as long as Vick plays it safe and doesn’t throw incompletions, you cannot keep up with that pace. But here’s where the problems start: Michael Vick is in his 30s. Lesean McCoy is halfway through an effective running back’s career and those offensive linemen are big. When I said “you,” I meant everyone. The Eagles wear themselves out with that offense, and I think we saw that in the second half Monday night. Another telling point: when Vick threw his backwards pass that was returned for touchdown – and it was backwards, folks; look at the hashes – despite no whistle being blown, not a single Eagle gave chase. Talented they may be, but Kelly doesn’t seem to have quite given them that killing instinct yet. The Chargers should be easy enough to roll past this week, but after that, trouble may start.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-24

 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1):

There’s not much to say about Cleveland that differs from last year at all, other than, what the heck are you doing not using Trent Richardson more? In a closely contested games, the Browns used literally their only offensive weapon a grand total of 13 times on the ground. That is not how you win games, when Brandon Weeden’s best weapon is a little-known tight end. The Browns defense is as solid as it’s been over the past few years, embarrassing Miami’s run game, but failing to keep the Dolphins receivers out of the end zone.

 

People need to chill with the doom-and-gloom prophecies over the Ravens. Keep in mind two things: 1) This is the NFL, where the talent gap is incredibly small, and blowouts can swing from losing to winning in back-to-back weeks, 2) You were watching a completely gutted and renovated Baltimore Ravens play in their first full game. Speaking of blowouts, the Ravens didn’t lose the game by 30, and until Demaryius Thomas’ 73-yard screen play, the idea that the Broncos had sealed the win was in serious doubt. The Ravens may slide out of the playoffs this year, but this is by no means a bad team, and Joe Flacco – who three for 362 yards by the way – has not regressed to his old ways, just yet, though 34-of-62 is kind of a gaudy statistic. Ravens should be able to take this one home.

Baltimore Ravens: 31-17

 

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0):

I don’t quite know what I was watching last week. Was that a really good Titans defense that was able to keep Big Ben in check, or did we just get to see what remains of a once-proud aerial attack? I think it leans toward the latter, because what was an atrocious defense last year, with little upgrades in the offseason, isn’t likely turning into an elite squad overnight – though it’s hard not to improve on last year’s performance. The offensive line seems miles better than last season’s, though, and Chris Johnson actually seemed to be able to make waves against a solid Steelers’ run D. Jake Locker was Jake Locker, though, and it’s the lack of a vertical threat that’s going to keep this team from making too many waves this year.

 

Houston has a few question marks to address after Week 1. Can Schaub actually put up 350-3 numbers for the rest of the season? And how will the team address Ben Tate’s performance moving forward. It’s hard to argue with Arian Foster’s career performance, but Tate was clearly the flashier back Monday night. The Texans defense looked completely different in the second half, after getting gashed in the first. Fortunately for it, the Titans likely pose even less of an offensive threat than San Diego did, which should allow Houston to take this one.

Houston Texans: 20-16

 

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1):

The last two seasons have been a lesson in variance for Lions fans. A team that couldn’t lose the close games in 2011 simply couldn’t find a way to win the same in 2012. It seems like the Lions finally solved that problem this year: make sure the game isn’t close. Reggie Bush seems to be exactly the dynamic Detroit needed to stretch the field and allow its defense to get the rest it needs. Phenomenal play by the front four allowed the Lions to keep Peterson in check for the most part, as well, but a still-suspect secondary could be an issue going forward.

 

No surprise here for the Cardinals. Everyone knew they were going to come out throwing, and Palmer still did so quite well. Rashard Mendenhall was serviceable against a quality run defense, but it’s the re-emergence of Larry Fitzgerald and what looks like a very good receiving corps that should allow Arizona to stay closer in the playoff chase this year. They should start by squeaking one out in what should be an aerial show.

Arizona Cardinals: 34-30

 

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1):

Well New Orleans just about answered all its questions. The NFL’s worst defense in history looked unstoppable against Atlanta’s O-line, giving up yards early and late, but looking invincible in between. Drew Brees is Brees, Darren Sproles continued to look phenomenal coming out of the backfield, and it seemed like New Orleans was even picking up on the run game last week.

 

I’ll say it: I think pundits are overreacting on Josh Freeman. He did not look good against the New York Jets, but almost nobody looks good against Rex Ryan when he’s given time to prepare a defensive scheme. Vincent Jackson was clearly unstoppable and Doug Martin doesn’t look like he’ll be having a sophomore slump. If Tampa finishes under .500 this year, it won’t be the offense’s fault. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be an improved secondary made Geno Smith look like an NFL start – though some of that may have been dropping into a prevent defense for much of the fourth quarter. However, I think Tampa’s going to have enough on offense to steal a win away from the Saints this week, despite those problems.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-30

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1):

Not much to say about this game. Nothing about the Jaguars looked surprising. Chad Henne should be able to inject some life into the unit, but it’s not going to be enough to overcome what Terrelle Pryor should be able to do to the Jacksonville defense. Pryor didn’t just look good against the Colts, he looked prepared. Denarius Moore and Rod Streater both looked like experienced wideouts, and Darren McFadden looked as phenomenal as usual when healthy. Raiders shouldn’t have trouble with this one.

Oakland Raiders: 24-13

 

Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):

As I said about the Ravens earlier, there’s a lot of overreacting going on when it comes to the Broncos as well. Manning has not ascended to a higher plane of existence. Denver struggled to run the ball, and the defense looked woefully exposed against Flacco early on. Mistakes and mismanagement by the Ravens were a huge part of the reason why Manning was able to throw for seven touchdowns last week. This is definitely a playoff team, one that’s likely to win its division, but it is by no means unbeatable.

 

The other Manning and his team are in about the same boat. Six turnovers were barely enough for the Cowboys to hold on against New York, and Eli posted nearly identical numbers (27-42 for 450 yards) to Peyton’s. Reuben Randle and Victor Cruz both electrified, and the Giants couldn’t run the ball to save their collective life. This weekend should be an all-out aerial assault between the two teams, but it’s unlikely David Wilson will experience the same fumbling troubles as he did last week, and that should be enough of an advantage for the Giants to take this one.

New York Giants: 28-27

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0):

It’s hard to find many flaws in the 49ers right now, but they’re there. The defense clearly didn’t play up to par, but rarely does an opponent of Rodgers. The fact that it struggled to contain Green Bay to even field goals may be a bit of a concern, though, especially when Colin Kapaernick will be facing a defense that was able to completely contain Newton on the road last week. Receiving options will become a major problem for the Niners as the season progresses. Kapaernick’s preference is clearly not for Vernon Davis, and it’s unlikely Seattle will give Anquan Boldin as much room to maneuver as Green Bay did.

 

Though their scores were completely different last week, Seattle is in much the same boat. The defense largely contained Cam and should be able to do the same against Kapaernick this week, but the offense is going to have to wake up. Russell Wilson is not a 300 YPG quarterback, especially when his best option is Douglas Baldwin, and Lynch cannot continue to average 2.5 YPC. That said, given the game plan Seattle was able to lay out last week, it should be able to do enough to hold off its division rival.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-20

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1):

I didn’t think the Steelers were playoff caliber, but I also didn’t think they were as bad as they looked against Tennessee in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger averaged less than 6 yards per attempt, and the run game was totally nonexistent. The defense made Chris Johnson work for his 70 yards, but even that is a worrisome when Jake Locker’s passing ability is taken into account.

 

Cincinnati, on the other hand, just looked like a team that was on the losing side of a good game. AJ Green was a monstrosity, Andy Dalton looked as good as he has in his career, and between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Beonard, the Bengals seem to have enough of a rushing attack to balance out the offense. The fact that the defense was incapable of getting a sack against what used to be one of the league’s worst offensive lines is a red flag, but this team simply has too much talent to lose Monday night.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-13