NFL Predictions - Week 3

Well, at least I don’t have to search for something to write about this week. Seriously, what the heck, Cleveland? I understand the decision to regroup and restart. That doesn’t bother me. But to do so after two games, with a substantially weaker deal than you likely could/should have gotten for Trent Richardson? It makes no sense. At least get a third or fourth out of this as well. Now all your chips are on the table for two first-round picks next year (and five in the following three), but it’s not even a guarantee that you’ll get Teddy Bridgewater. As for the Colts, well, wow. Richardson immediately gives Indy the depth it needs to go from being a good offense to being an elite one.  The major knock on Richardson is that he’s only averaged 3.5 YPC in his 14 games in the league. A) Broken ribs make it hard to run, B) when your team has literally no other threat, it’s extremely easy to load the box and man up the rest of Cleveland’s weapons. That can’t happen in Indy. Even if Richardson experiences a dip in production, defenders can’t disrespect him, because he will run them over. And if they overload the box, Andrew Luck will pick them apart. I don’t see how this isn’t a huge win and steal for the Colts.

Anyway, onto more mundane things, like picks.

 

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 23-9

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1):

I find it ironic that the Chiefs are doing exactly what everyone expected (playing safe, smart offense and shutting teams down with an athletic defense), yet everyone seems to be shocked by the results. Let’s keep in mind, though, that the Cowboys and Jaguars are hardly elite. Alex Smith has yet to make a turnover, which will change, and there seem to be no significant injuries on this squad, which, given recent history, will also change.

I love the storyline of Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia, and had I not seen the Eagle’s offense in the last two weeks, I’d think the stage was perfectly set for a redemption story for him. Unfortunately, Kelly’s offense is the real deal (defense being another matter entirely). Tonight should make for lots of fun for everyone involved, but home field advantage plus a faster offense that can play from behind mean the Eagles should be able to take one from their old coach.

Philadelphia Eagles: 24-20

 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1):

If you watched Green Bay play at all last week, you got to see Denver 2.0. It looked more like exposing Washington’s porous defense than anything else, though. James Starks, subbing in for the concussed Eddie Lacy, ran over and around the Skins, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was Aaron Rodgers being able to rip one of the NFL’s better secondaries to shreds. That said, the defense has a lot to answer for, and walking into Cincinnati incapable of stopping AJ Green could be a problem.

Cincinnati is weird. The Bengals look good on paper, but the result just doesn’t seem to be there. They gave up an 11-point lead (granted, on the road) in Chicago, then seemed to play a mediocre-at-best game against Pittsburgh at home. Ike Taylor managed to single-handedly shut down Green, but Giovani Bernard decided to take over the game, scoring twice on eight touches. That said, Cincinnati’s defense is as good as everyone thought it would be, and it’s doubtful that Rodgers will be throwing for 400 yards again.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2):

Nope.

Minnesota’s got problems. Christian Ponder looks better than he did last year, and Adrian Peterson is slowly starting to look like his 2012 form, but that defense … yikes. Thankfully, they get to play a team that’s openly trying to get the first pick in next year’s draft.

Minnesota Vikings: 24-7

 

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1):

Sadly I didn’t get to see much of the Chargers game last Sunday, but it seemed to live up to track meet hype and, surprisingly, the Chargers managed to not choke away the lead. That bodes well heading into Tennessee, which very much did choke away the lead last week. San Diego historically dominates this matchup, but this is a new-look Titans, and Philip Rivers will have to find some consistency or Ryan Mathews will have to wake up this week.

Tennessee, dare I say it, looks like a potential contender through two games. Jake Locker looks like himself (55-percent passer, about 150 yards per game) and Chris Johnson finally looks decent again, but it’s the defense that seems to be rising up. Aside from a late-game barrage by DeAndre Hopkins last week, Tennessee thoroughly outplayed the Texans’ offense. This week should be a litmus test for how the Titans’ game works out this season, and I think the Titans have enough of a look to make a run.

Tennessee Titans: 20-17

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1):

How is that a team that didn’t have an offensive coordinator a year ago looks worse on defense this year?  The Rams have been absolutely blitzed through the air two weeks in a row, and while Sam Bradford looks like he’ll stick around as a serviceable quarterback, he and the Rams simply do not have enough offensive pieces to keep up with the number of yards their defense is giving up.

What makes matters worse is that the Cowboys are yet another aerial-assault team and they’re much healthier than the Falcons are. The Cowboys defense hasn’t yet established an identity under new DC Monte Kiffin, but it should get there, and hosting the Rams should give them another week to gather themselves.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0:

You know, the Bucs are killing my pick percentage this year. More importantly, though, they’re killing themselves. This team should be 2-0 right now, but thanks to a bone-headed defensive mistake and poor play-calling down the stretch, they’re 0-2. What really bothers me is that Josh Freeman is taking the flak for “not winning” in this situation. In both games he led game-winning/game-sealing drives, and his team failed to come through. This is an offense that, while not one of the league’s best, is one of the most dependable, and any argument to the contrary is based solely on win-loss rather than actual performance.

The Patriots, ironically enough, seem to be in a different situation. Neither the league’s best nor most dependable offense, New England has squeaked by to a 2-0 start, thanks largely to terrible division foes. The defense has carried the Patriots to this point, but it also hasn’t been seriously challenged. That changes this week, and look for Tampa to finally figure out how to hang on to a game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-16

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0):

It’s hard to argue that Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer have manufactured results in the desert. Even without Larry Fitzgerald in the second half of last week’s game versus the Lions, Palmer was able to engineer a game-winning drive (against an admittedly outmatched secondary). Rashard Mendenhall looks like he’s still got something left in the tank, and the Cardinals defense is as good as was expected. Unfortunately, it’s not going to help this week.

The Saints look incredibly good. They’ve only scored 40 points in their two division wins, but that’s the point. Drew Brees has yet to have a good, or even average, game by his standards, and it’s been largely incredible defensive play, inspired by DC Rob Ryan, that has allowed New Orleans to take an early lead in the NFC. That shouldn’t change this week, and Brees should be able to find some semblance of his old self in the Superdome.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2):

We got to see what life was like without Reggie Bush Sunday, and it looked terribly familiar. The defense seems to have made absolutely no progress from last year, and a front seven that managed to hold Adrian Peterson to just 15 yards on 17 carries – after 78 on one – managed to get picked apart by Mendenhall. Bush claims he’s healthy enough to go, and he’ll have to be if the Lions hope to keep up with Washington.

RGIII’s numbers are there, but a lot of that is late-game when the games have largely been decided. He’s clearly having some trouble with the knee, despite his claims to the contrary and it’s a problem, because the Redskins secondary isn’t up to the standard it was in previous years. (Granted, they’ve had to stop Desean Jackson and Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/James Jones so far, and that’s difficult.) Fortunately, they hit the Lions without a fully healthy Bush and a special teams that easily lost the game Sunday.

Washington Redskins: 31-20

 

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2):

The Giants have 10 turnovers through two games. That’s phenomenally bad, and it seems to be the singlehanded reason as to why New York has started 0-2 this year. Their troubles don’t’ get any easier, as the Panthers, for all their own troubles, seem to have embraced a solid strong defense on both facets. Eli Manning and David Wilson will have to find a way to temper their turnovers if they want to avoid an 0-3 start, something I don’t think they’ll be able to do.

Carolina is in a similar boat. Both times, the Panthers should have won, and both times they managed to give up a fourth-quarter lead. It’s arguable that the Bills’ loss came down to a silly pass interference by Luke Kuechly, but had Ron Rivera not gonna ultra-conservative in the waning minutes on offense, they wouldn’t have been in that position. Carolina looks like a solid team with weak leadership, but this week should ease some concerns for the time being.

Carolina Panthers: 21-17

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1):

The Texans are thanking the Patriots right now. If not for New England, Houston would be the shakiest undefeated team in the league. Both wins have come on the last play of the game – the only time in NFL history that’s happened, by the way – and both have come after extremely sloppy first halves. And now Andre Johnson is experiencing concussion-like symptoms – though he is supposed to go this week. Matt Schaub looks like he did in the pre-Arian Foster days and Foster and Ben Tate are splitting what should be the best ground attack in the league, but there are still some problems to address on both sides, and Baltimore may have the talent to exploit that.

The great thing about Bernard Pierce is that the Ravens don’t necessarily need Ray Rice to have a two-dimensional offense, though it would be nice. The Ravens are having their defensive troubles – some incredible miscues by the Browns are the only reason they’re not 0-2 – but offensively, should Joe Flacco get the kinks out of his game, the Ravens can still compete. Look for the Ravens to pull off the upset at home here.

Baltimore Ravens: 21-20

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0):

This is just another game in a long line of what should be incredibly close this week, and the loss of Stephen Jackson only makes this one even more so. Atlanta is far more talented than the Dolphin right now, but Roddy White is clearly not 100 percent and Jackson won’t even be taking the field. The Falcons’ D looks more than serviceable, but it’s hard to gauge that, given all the garbage-time yards they gave up to the Rams last week. 

The Dolphins are a nice 2-0, but it’s no reason to get overconfident. The Colts are clearly having troubles of their own (see: Trent Richardson trade), but a win is a win. That said, I’m still not sold on Lamar Miller (who gets 3 yards on 10 carries against anyone?) and Mike Wallace seems to be an accident waiting to happen. Cameron Wake and the rest of the Dolphins D-line look like a nightmare to block, though, and the Saints showed how much trouble that could cause Matt Ryan. I think the Falcons will pull this one out, but it should come down to the final drive.

Atlanta Falcons: 21-20

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1):

If the reports I’ve seen aren’t exaggerated, EJ Manuel is the real deal, and Buffalo fans have to be pumped about that. He benefited from a complete defensive collapse last week, but still has a game-winning drive on his resume after only two starts. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson still both look fantastic, and this Buffalo secondary, somehow, some way, seems to actually be good. (Keep in mind, half of them are not starters right now.) On top of that, Mario Williams has retaken the mantle of “Super Mario” with his 4-5-sack performance against Cam last week.

As much as the Bills are trending up, the Jets are trending just as quickly downward. Geno Smith looks find, but you cannot rely on him to throw 35 passes against a strong Patriots secondary, in the pouring rain, and be mistake free. That falls on coaching, and that’s where New York is in trouble. The Jets’ D will be one of the league’s best this year, but with a sloppy offense, that hardly matters.

Buffalo Bills: 17-13

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1):

You’ve seen my thoughts on the Colts after the Richardson trade, and I firmly believe them. It just won’t happen this week.

The Niners coming off a terribly lopsided loss at Seattle for the second trip in a row. That kind of loss will not sit well with a team like this, and it’s not likely Jim Harbaugh will need to say much to motivate his squad this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0):

This one’s gonna get ugly and fast. This is the largest spread the NFL has seen in 20 years, and it’s only Week 3. That’s pathetic, Jacksonville.

Seattle Seahawks: 31-6

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2):

Though the Bears are undefeated, they’ve only looked like a playoff team for about 60 percent of their season so far. A late-game Minnesota collapse, coupled with a rare turnover by AD, gave the Bears a chance to escape with a second win, only a week after having to fight back from an 11-point hole to beat the Bengals. Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett look phenomenal so far, though, and the defense is still making turnovers.

That said, the Steelers are as realistically a winless team as the Bears are an undefeated team. Pitt has absolutely no run game, but the defense is still one of the league’s best, and Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl titles for a reason. The Steelers are feeling a sense of desperation they haven’t had under Mike Tomlin’s reign, and that’s going to play a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-18

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0):

I don’t quite understand why this is a Monday night game. Nobody actually expected the Raiders to be playoff contenders did they? I mean, Darren McFadden, when healthy, is a top-5 back, and Terelle Pryor has shown he can make plays with both his feet and his arms, but the defense isn’t proven and the wide-receiving corps is mediocre at best.

Remember how I said people should calm down on the Broncos’ hype because hanging nearly 50 is almost always a fluke? Yeah, I can’t explain that happening twice. The Giants “held” Peyton Manning to 360 yards and a touchdown, so special teams and Knowshon Moreno simply stepped up and took over. This team has no glaring weaknesses – even the loss of Von Miller has been effectively masked – and it’s hard to see the Broncos losing a game at home this year.

Denver Broncos: 38-20