NFL Predictions - Week 2

Well that was a fun first week, and, I believe, the closest in NFL history (for at least Week 1) in terms of average margin of victory. We had a few upsets – here’s lookin’ at you, Lavonte David – but Chip Kelly’s debut aside, I wouldn’t say any other game created cause for alarm for any of the league’s frontrunners. We all expected Peyton Manning to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league this week, but I don’t think anyone predicted 460 yards and seven touchdowns. Add to that Eli Manning’s ridiculous 450 yards (and even more ridiculous interceptions), and you don’t have to look very far for the storyline of the week with this matchup. A couple of key injuries and benchings look like cause for alarm for some teams, but we’ll get to that as they come up. So here we go.

 

Last Week: 11-5-0

Overall: 11-5-0

 

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

So the Jets are 1-0, huh? That was just a shade surprising, but when the aforementioned David hit Geno Smith three steps out-of-bounds with seconds left on the clock, even these guys almost have to take the win home with them. Unlike New York’s 40+-point debut last year, nothing about this game really stood out to silence Jets detractors. The defense looked good, but not great, giving up over 150 yards to Vincent Jackson but otherwise shutting down a struggling Josh Freeman, and the offense did little except pick apart a secondary in the waning moments of the fourth quarter – a secondary that clearly hasn’t gelled or simply hasn’t improved from last season. Geno Smith looks somewhat promising, and he has too, given the new potential that Mark Sanchez’ season is likely over, but it’s nothing New York can confidently carry into Gillette Stadium tonight.

 

I’m a tad concerned if I’m New England, however. Stevan Ridley’s fumble was clearly an aberration, and subbing Shane Vereen in clearly didn’t hurt the team, but now Vereen has a broken wrist, and Belichick clearly wasn’t thrilled with Ridley’s actions last week. Additionally, Tom Brady looked almost lost on the field Sunday – most of Danny Amendola’s receptions came on the final drive and he hardly targeted his depleted tight-end unit at all – against a secondary unit that was featuring two backups. Jerrod Mayo and Co. look about as decent as they ever have, though, and that should be enough for the Patriots to easily walk out tonight, victory in hand.

New England Patriots: 24-13

 

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1):

Credit to the Rams: They withstood an all-out aerial assault from the new look Cardinals to not only win, but win in a shootout mote. Sam Bradford threw for 300 yards against what was considered a top defense heading into the season, and Jared Cook looks to finally be embracing his potential as an elite tight end – maybe having a quarterback that knows how to throw a ball has something to do with that; I’m not gonna make that reach, though. The only serious drawback on offense was Darryl Richardson, who, at 3.1 YPC clearly couldn’t get it going. I didn’t get a chance to see much of how St. Louis’ looked on defense, but Cortland Finnegan got burned time and again, and based off the number of targets Carson Palmer spread the ball too, the Rams are clearly going to struggle against top passing attacks this year, and that doesn’t bode well heading into Atlanta.

On the other side, Atlanta looked flummoxed by the Saints’ new-look D last week. A lot of that was the fact that Sean Payton was back and Rob Ryan was just debuting, but you have to worry a little about an offensive line that looked like a sieve. Stephen Jackson was clearly a valuable addition (fourth-quarter, goal-line drop aside), averaging 7 YPC, even with that line, but that’s offset by what seemed to be a pretty serious Roddy White injury. Even so, Harry Douglas stepped up last week, and Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones aren’t exactly second-fiddle receivers. And Matt Ryan is better than Carson Palmer, which means St. Louis is gonna be very hard-pressed to match Atlanta point for point this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-23

 

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1):

Like offense? You’ll love this game. The Seahawks defense held Cam Newton largely in check, but here’s the thing: Buffalo does not have Seattle’s defense. Its secondary looked weirdly impressive vs. Brady last week, but the Panthers are runners, and they’re gonna cram it down Buffalo’s throat play after play. DeAngelo Williams looked, at least, serviceable and you know Cam will make plenty of moves with his legs this week. Additionally, the Panthers, led by Luke Kuechly, looked formidable, slowing Marshawn Lynch almost to a stop and keeping Russell Wilson in check for the most part.

 

Buffalo has a lot to be hopeful about. First, they only lost to the Patriots by a little, a big improvement on recent years of losing to the Patriots by a lot. EJ Manuel didn’t look spectacular, but he looked solid, making plays with both sets of limbs and, most importantly, not looking flustered or making mistakes. The Bills lost, not on ineptitude, but simply because they went up against a better team. A cobbled-together secondary actually did its job, but the front end of that defense will be what keeps Buffalo from a decent season this year. All the pass defense in the world won’t help if and when Carolina logs 200 yards on the ground.

Carolina Panthers: 23-17

 

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0):

Well, it didn’t take long to figure out if Adrian Peterson could back up his goal of two straight historic seasons. But a 78-yard touchdown aside, the Vikings have a lot to be worried about. Peterson broke his first run because the Lions failed to contain him when hit the line-of-scrimmage. For literally every play following, the Lions – who, from what I saw, showed primarily seven- and eight-men fronts – were able to force the game onto Christian Ponders shoulders, holding Peterson to 15 yards on 17 carries for the rest of the game. Ponder threw for 236 yards, but a good chunk of that came in garbage time, and the Viking defense was simply shredded by Matt Stafford and Reggie Bush. Nothing about that game should make Vikings fans optimistic.

 

Chicago, for its occasional struggles, looked good against Cincinnati, especially when turnover-prone Jay Cutler managed to make an 11-point deficit vanish with almost no mistakes. Brandon Marhsall took a little bit to wake up, and Matt Forte struggled on the ground, but the key takeaway was zero sacks. We’ve never seen what Jay Cutler could do behind a good offensive line, but whatever Marc Trestman implemented, it could be dangerous for the rest of the NFC North. The Bears should gain an early bump on the division this week, so long as they can keep AD below 100.

Chicago Bears: 17-13

 

Washington Redskins (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0):

Lest the Redskins fans panic, I want to point out that Monday night was far more indicative of Philadelphia’s offensive prowess and RGIII’s shaking off the rust, than it was of a team in trouble. Washington’s D was gassed early, yes, but it was playing against an offense the NFL had literally never seen before. Once the Eagles wore themselves out a bit, the defense was much more capable, except against Lesean McCoy, and Griffin looked much more like himself in their second-half surge.

 

Unfortunately, the Skins are heading to Lambeau Field to face a Pack squad coming off a loss of its own. The Packers don’t have a running game that can rip the Skins to shreds, but they don’t need one with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers clearly don’t miss Greg Jennings, and even though Washington’s secondary is by far its best defensive aspect, Rodgers should still be able to put up enough points to match any of RGIII’s efforts.

Green Bay Packers: 31-28

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0):

And so begins a brutal three-game stretch for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill looked very good against a good Cleveland defense that was intent on taking away his primary receiving threat, but that running game… Yikes. Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller combined for less than 20 yards rushing. That will not win you games in this league.

 

Andrew Luck looked slightly schizophrenic in the Colts’ premiere versus Oakland. After looking nearly perfect on Indy’s first two scoring drives, the offense just seemed to shrivel up. Some of that may have been trying to coast to the win, but 18-of-23 for 178 yards is not a stat line you want to see from a quarterback who’s projected to top 4,000 yards, especially when it’s supposed to be your primary offense. While I’m more faithful in Indy fixing its passing attack before Miami fixes its run game, Tannehill looked more consistent and, though picking against Indy bit me all last year, I think Miami will surprise the Colts in Indianapolis.

Miami Dolphins: 21-17

*This originally said Indianapolis Colts, and I'm a little annoyed, because the site decided to not save my changes when I fixed it. Judge me at your discretion.

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0):

I think most people expected both these teams to be 1-0 coming into this game, but I don’t know if people expected the way it happened. Dallas won by forcing turnovers and not committing any of their own, while Kansas City simply destroyed the Jaguars in every facet of the game. Tony Romo looked solid, even with Dez Bryant doubled much of the game, and DeMarco Murray looked like he always looks when he’s healthy: very good.

 

Unlike Indy, Kansas City almost had to coast to the win to keep it from becoming a blowout. Blaine Gabbert clearly had issues in the game, but locking down Cecil Shorts and Maurice Jones-Drew completely still takes some impressive defense. A somewhat jarring injury to Jamaal Charles in the second half meant the end of the Chiefs primary offense, but even that wasn’t enough to keep them from racking up 28 points. The Chiefs are going to get a much tougher test against Monte Kiffin’s defense this week, but that defense relied heavily on turnovers to win last week, and Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles do not turn the ball over.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-20

 

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0):

I don’t have much to say about the Chargers, other than fits of laughter. That collapsing thing has to stop happening at some point, right? I mean, how does a quarterback go from throwing four first-half touchdowns to finishing under 50 percent and with fewer than 200 yards, as well as throwing the game-clinching pick-six?

 

So Chip Kelly? Yeah. Let’s talk about him, shall we? That offense looked phenomenal in the first half Monday night. On the first drive, by my watch, the Eagles ran at least 10 plays in under five real-time minutes. It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, as long as Vick plays it safe and doesn’t throw incompletions, you cannot keep up with that pace. But here’s where the problems start: Michael Vick is in his 30s. Lesean McCoy is halfway through an effective running back’s career and those offensive linemen are big. When I said “you,” I meant everyone. The Eagles wear themselves out with that offense, and I think we saw that in the second half Monday night. Another telling point: when Vick threw his backwards pass that was returned for touchdown – and it was backwards, folks; look at the hashes – despite no whistle being blown, not a single Eagle gave chase. Talented they may be, but Kelly doesn’t seem to have quite given them that killing instinct yet. The Chargers should be easy enough to roll past this week, but after that, trouble may start.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-24

 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1):

There’s not much to say about Cleveland that differs from last year at all, other than, what the heck are you doing not using Trent Richardson more? In a closely contested games, the Browns used literally their only offensive weapon a grand total of 13 times on the ground. That is not how you win games, when Brandon Weeden’s best weapon is a little-known tight end. The Browns defense is as solid as it’s been over the past few years, embarrassing Miami’s run game, but failing to keep the Dolphins receivers out of the end zone.

 

People need to chill with the doom-and-gloom prophecies over the Ravens. Keep in mind two things: 1) This is the NFL, where the talent gap is incredibly small, and blowouts can swing from losing to winning in back-to-back weeks, 2) You were watching a completely gutted and renovated Baltimore Ravens play in their first full game. Speaking of blowouts, the Ravens didn’t lose the game by 30, and until Demaryius Thomas’ 73-yard screen play, the idea that the Broncos had sealed the win was in serious doubt. The Ravens may slide out of the playoffs this year, but this is by no means a bad team, and Joe Flacco – who three for 362 yards by the way – has not regressed to his old ways, just yet, though 34-of-62 is kind of a gaudy statistic. Ravens should be able to take this one home.

Baltimore Ravens: 31-17

 

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0):

I don’t quite know what I was watching last week. Was that a really good Titans defense that was able to keep Big Ben in check, or did we just get to see what remains of a once-proud aerial attack? I think it leans toward the latter, because what was an atrocious defense last year, with little upgrades in the offseason, isn’t likely turning into an elite squad overnight – though it’s hard not to improve on last year’s performance. The offensive line seems miles better than last season’s, though, and Chris Johnson actually seemed to be able to make waves against a solid Steelers’ run D. Jake Locker was Jake Locker, though, and it’s the lack of a vertical threat that’s going to keep this team from making too many waves this year.

 

Houston has a few question marks to address after Week 1. Can Schaub actually put up 350-3 numbers for the rest of the season? And how will the team address Ben Tate’s performance moving forward. It’s hard to argue with Arian Foster’s career performance, but Tate was clearly the flashier back Monday night. The Texans defense looked completely different in the second half, after getting gashed in the first. Fortunately for it, the Titans likely pose even less of an offensive threat than San Diego did, which should allow Houston to take this one.

Houston Texans: 20-16

 

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1):

The last two seasons have been a lesson in variance for Lions fans. A team that couldn’t lose the close games in 2011 simply couldn’t find a way to win the same in 2012. It seems like the Lions finally solved that problem this year: make sure the game isn’t close. Reggie Bush seems to be exactly the dynamic Detroit needed to stretch the field and allow its defense to get the rest it needs. Phenomenal play by the front four allowed the Lions to keep Peterson in check for the most part, as well, but a still-suspect secondary could be an issue going forward.

 

No surprise here for the Cardinals. Everyone knew they were going to come out throwing, and Palmer still did so quite well. Rashard Mendenhall was serviceable against a quality run defense, but it’s the re-emergence of Larry Fitzgerald and what looks like a very good receiving corps that should allow Arizona to stay closer in the playoff chase this year. They should start by squeaking one out in what should be an aerial show.

Arizona Cardinals: 34-30

 

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1):

Well New Orleans just about answered all its questions. The NFL’s worst defense in history looked unstoppable against Atlanta’s O-line, giving up yards early and late, but looking invincible in between. Drew Brees is Brees, Darren Sproles continued to look phenomenal coming out of the backfield, and it seemed like New Orleans was even picking up on the run game last week.

 

I’ll say it: I think pundits are overreacting on Josh Freeman. He did not look good against the New York Jets, but almost nobody looks good against Rex Ryan when he’s given time to prepare a defensive scheme. Vincent Jackson was clearly unstoppable and Doug Martin doesn’t look like he’ll be having a sophomore slump. If Tampa finishes under .500 this year, it won’t be the offense’s fault. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be an improved secondary made Geno Smith look like an NFL start – though some of that may have been dropping into a prevent defense for much of the fourth quarter. However, I think Tampa’s going to have enough on offense to steal a win away from the Saints this week, despite those problems.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-30

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1):

Not much to say about this game. Nothing about the Jaguars looked surprising. Chad Henne should be able to inject some life into the unit, but it’s not going to be enough to overcome what Terrelle Pryor should be able to do to the Jacksonville defense. Pryor didn’t just look good against the Colts, he looked prepared. Denarius Moore and Rod Streater both looked like experienced wideouts, and Darren McFadden looked as phenomenal as usual when healthy. Raiders shouldn’t have trouble with this one.

Oakland Raiders: 24-13

 

Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):

As I said about the Ravens earlier, there’s a lot of overreacting going on when it comes to the Broncos as well. Manning has not ascended to a higher plane of existence. Denver struggled to run the ball, and the defense looked woefully exposed against Flacco early on. Mistakes and mismanagement by the Ravens were a huge part of the reason why Manning was able to throw for seven touchdowns last week. This is definitely a playoff team, one that’s likely to win its division, but it is by no means unbeatable.

 

The other Manning and his team are in about the same boat. Six turnovers were barely enough for the Cowboys to hold on against New York, and Eli posted nearly identical numbers (27-42 for 450 yards) to Peyton’s. Reuben Randle and Victor Cruz both electrified, and the Giants couldn’t run the ball to save their collective life. This weekend should be an all-out aerial assault between the two teams, but it’s unlikely David Wilson will experience the same fumbling troubles as he did last week, and that should be enough of an advantage for the Giants to take this one.

New York Giants: 28-27

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0):

It’s hard to find many flaws in the 49ers right now, but they’re there. The defense clearly didn’t play up to par, but rarely does an opponent of Rodgers. The fact that it struggled to contain Green Bay to even field goals may be a bit of a concern, though, especially when Colin Kapaernick will be facing a defense that was able to completely contain Newton on the road last week. Receiving options will become a major problem for the Niners as the season progresses. Kapaernick’s preference is clearly not for Vernon Davis, and it’s unlikely Seattle will give Anquan Boldin as much room to maneuver as Green Bay did.

 

Though their scores were completely different last week, Seattle is in much the same boat. The defense largely contained Cam and should be able to do the same against Kapaernick this week, but the offense is going to have to wake up. Russell Wilson is not a 300 YPG quarterback, especially when his best option is Douglas Baldwin, and Lynch cannot continue to average 2.5 YPC. That said, given the game plan Seattle was able to lay out last week, it should be able to do enough to hold off its division rival.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-20

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1):

I didn’t think the Steelers were playoff caliber, but I also didn’t think they were as bad as they looked against Tennessee in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger averaged less than 6 yards per attempt, and the run game was totally nonexistent. The defense made Chris Johnson work for his 70 yards, but even that is a worrisome when Jake Locker’s passing ability is taken into account.

 

Cincinnati, on the other hand, just looked like a team that was on the losing side of a good game. AJ Green was a monstrosity, Andy Dalton looked as good as he has in his career, and between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Beonard, the Bengals seem to have enough of a rushing attack to balance out the offense. The fact that the defense was incapable of getting a sack against what used to be one of the league’s worst offensive lines is a red flag, but this team simply has too much talent to lose Monday night.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-13