Week 12 NFL Predictions

This has to stop. Tim Tebow is now making incredible waves without even doing anything. The Broncos waived Kyle Orton this week, the Chiefs picked him up, and now the AFC West seems permanently muddled. Two of the hottest teams in the NFL (Texans and Bears) have lost their quarterbacks as well, both for at least the remainder of the season. On the other hand, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers continue their record-shattering paces and each one seems primed to control their own destinies for the remainder of the season. In other words, it’s all about the quarterback right now. (Isn’t it always, though?) It’s not just the quarterback, though. DeMarco Murray has the Cowboys surging, with a strong chance to take full control of the NFC East this week, while thanks to an explosion by Kevin Smith, the Lions were able to mount their third 17+-point comeback against Carolina, setting the stage for possibly the biggest showdown in the NFC this year. With that in mind, here are my picks for the week.

Last Week: 13-1

Overall: 82-44

Green Bay Packers (10-0) at Detroit Lions (7-3):

Both of these teams started hot, but despite shaky defensive play in recent weeks, the Packers have managed to stay undefeated, doing so in dominating fashion. Aaron Rodgers seems simply unstoppable right now, and the defense is capitalizing off the fact that opposing offenses have to do their best to keep up. On the other side, Detroit is dealing with success it literally hasn’t experienced in generations, and it shows. What was a hot 5-0 start is now a rocky 2-3 stretch, where the Lions have gone from blowing out the Broncos, to getting blown out, to destroying the Panthers in a half. Detroit’s offense is clearly one of the highest caliber in the league, but it seems to function only on emotion. Fortunately, Green Bay and Thanksgiving Day should give the Lions all they need for motivation.

Detroit Lions: 37-34

Miami Dolphins (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-4):

Miami’s another one of those teams that lost its QB to a season-ending injury, but strangely enough, it seems to have actually helped the Dolphins. It may be too little too late, but a resurgent Reggie Bush is leading an offense that can seemingly do no wrong right now. Meanwhile, the rookie Murray is doing the exact same thing for Dallas, taking the game out of Tony Romo’s choking hands being the biggest impact he’s made. Unlike Miami, though, Dallas has a great defense and gets the home-field advantage. Miami’s hot streak ends in the House That Jerry Built.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-14

San Francisco 49ers (9-1) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3):

It’s hard to imagine a better lineup of games on a Thanksgiving Day, and no better game could headline the day than the battle of the brothers. John Harbaugh’s spent years in the league proving himself, while the upstart Jim Harbaugh has the Niners looking like the only team that could possibly keep pace with the Packers at this point. Nobody is winning games like the Niners this year, primarily on defense, with a quarterback who simply doesn’t make mistakes, but they also haven’t played a defense like the Ravens’. Ray Lewis may miss this matchup, but John shouldn’t need any extra help motivating his defense to a star performance this week.

Baltimore Ravens: 17-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-5):

It’s a testament to the flaws of the Green Bay defense that the Tampa Bay offense managed to put up 26 points. This is NOT a good offense, in no way similar last year’s, and it’s clearly struggled against solid defenses (see Houston, San Francisco), and every step forward seems to countered by a step back – LeGarette Blount goes off, Josh Freeman throws a couple more picks. Tennessee is maintaining its middle-of-the-road look on both sides of the ball, but it’s now in prime position to take control of the reeling AFC South after Schaub’s injury. This game will go a long way toward showing if the Titans can capitalize, and I think they’ll do so.

Tennessee Titans: 31-20

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4):

The Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Peterson didn’t have a very good shot at beating Atlanta in Atlanta. Without him? Well, Percy Harvin is the backup for a reason. The Vikings can’t stop anything on defense – its best talent is simply slowing down the running backs – and despite a flawed Falcons’ defense, Minnesota is too muddled on offense to take advantage. Falcons should keep pace with the Saints this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 28-13

Cleveland Browns (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4):

Cleveland finally managed to hold on for its first win in what feels like forever, despite one of the easiest schedules of the last month. The Browns are only two games behind the Bengals, but it feels like four or five from the way the two teams are playing. With the loss of A.J. Green last week, Andy Dalton showed it really is his talent that’s allowing the Bengals to keep pace for a shot at the wild card. Losing two in a row is never a good thing, but Cinci fans have to have hope with the way their team performed over the last two weeks, and this should be a good place to turn the corner.

Cincinnati Bengals: 14-10

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Indianapolis Colts (0-10):

Anything I say about the Colts at this point just makes me sound like a broken record. This team is going 0-16. Carolina, though, there’s a lot I can say about how bad this defense seems to be getting. Detroit has an explosive offense, but Kevin Smith isn’t that good. He was cut during the preseason for a reason. That said, Carolina should have another week to figure out where those holes are and plug them.

Carolina Panthers: 34-17

Arizona Cardinals (3-7) at St. Louis Rams (2-8):

Neither of these teams has a chance at respectability this year, but Arizona essentially stole one from the Rams in Phoenix earlier this year, and that gives the Rams something to play for right now. Plus, John Skelton makes Kevin Kolb look really, really good, and he’s really, really not.

St. Louis Rams: 23-7

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at New York Jets (5-5):

The Bills’ season was done before Fred Jackson was placed on IR. Now, it’s in the middle of the burial. Sadly – if you’re a Jets a fan – and hilariously – if you’re anyone else – the Jets are still on the same ground as Buffalo right now. Look for Buffalo to give the Jets a bit of a fight this time around, despite having to play in the Meadowlands, but they simply have nothing left on either side of the trench, and now their only playmaker is out for the season.

New York Jets: 31-14

Houston Texans (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7):

Houston fans have to be collectively yanking their hair out – or maybe it’s individually. Anybody know what Houstonites do in their spare time? – right now. They have what should be a cakewalk into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and Matt Schaub goes out for the season at the tail-end of a blowout on a simple QB sneak. Now … not so much. Thankfully, Matt Leinart has a week against the Jaguars to get his feet wet. He’ll struggle; Jacksonville’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but the Texans’ D and Arian Foster, plus the return of Andre Johnson, should be enough to keep the game in Houston control.

Houston Texans: 20-14

Chicago Bears (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (6-4):

Chicago didn’t get as lucky as Houston here, and it just missed out on reclaiming Orton, before facing against a Raiders’ defense that really, really likes playing inexperienced quarterbacks. The Bears were due for a bad game, but I don’t think they saw it playing out quite this way. Carson Palmer is finally meshing with the offense, Michael Bush is suiting up to be a perfect replacement for Darren McFadden, and the Bears’ hot streak is coming to a halt in the Black Hole.

Oakland Raiders: 24-17

Washington Redskins (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-6):

The Redskins are simply spiraling now. Mike Shanahan’s two-QB system is clearly not working out, and despite an effective defense, Washington just can’t seem to close out games. In a rivalry game that clearly mattered to them, the Skins weren’t able to pull out an overtime win. On the other hand, Seattle seems to improve every week, and as Sidney Rice and Marshawn Lynch both reach full health, the Seahawks may become some dangerous spoilers for the remainder of the season, including this week.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-17

New England Patriots (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6):

I’m getting really tired of having to deal with these schizophrenic birds, but I can actually see a legitimate reason for the Eagles’ win last week. Vince Young wasn’t great, but he also didn’t turn the ball over, and that’s been Philly’s biggest problem this year. The Eagles D gets a bad rap, but in weeks where it hasn’t had to compensate for three or four turnovers, it’s simply been shut down. Young doesn’t have the talents of Vick, but he isn’t consistently killing redzone drives week after week. New England’s defense, meanwhile, has finally begun showing signs of life and is officially no longer the worst D in the league. Wes Welker has gone into witness protection, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the rest of Tom Brady’s receiving corps have picked things up, and Philadelphia will struggle to hold the Pats down long enough to keep up.

New England Patriots: 30-17

Denver Broncos (5-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-6):

Tebow can do some amazing things at the end of games, but keep in mind, it’s his fault his team keeps being put in those positions in the first place. Denver’s turnaround is thanks entirely to a revamped defense, which has allowed 15, 24, 10 and 13 in its four wins in the previous five weeks. San Diego, meanwhile, has officially hit free-fall status. Ryan Mathews is now healthy but can’t hold onto the ball, Philip Rivers is having a simply awful year, and the defense can’t seem to hold anyone in check. That said, Denver is not a good enough team to win 5-of-6, and as bad as Rivers is, San Diego simply has too much talent to keep losing. Denver may be able to keep pace in this division, but for now, it’s taking a step back.

San Diego Chargers: 24-14

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6):

Anyone see Tyler Palko? Aside from being the real life equivalent of what would happen if Keanu Reeves and his replacements really did play, he’s not good. Not bad, but he’s not winning any games against any decent teams. Fortunately, the Chiefs managed to claim Orton off waivers and, as long as the AFC West keeps doing what it’s doing (losing) – Kansas City should be able to get back into the race as soon as next week. Of course, the Steelers have to love this. What suddenly looked like a tough road trip now boils down to one question: Can they shut down Dwayne Bowe? That’ll be a yes.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-14

New York Giants (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-3):

The Giants don’t seem to be getting worse. They’re just losing every game they’re supposed to lose, which may still cost them a playoff slot. The run game has gone from sluggish to straight anemic in recent weeks, but Eli Manning is still playing lights-out. The defense has been solid, not spectacular, though, and that could cost them against New Orleans. The Saints simply seem to be on fire, with a fully healthy receiving corps and a stable of running backs who each seem to know when it’s their turn to chip in. Then of course, you have Drew Brees, who may shatter Dan Marino’s yardage record. The Saints can lose, but right now, they’re too hot to lose at home.

New Orleans Saints: 31-27

Week 11 NFL Predictions

Talk about a weekend of upsets. The Raiders started it off by handling the reeling Chargers at home, and it continued straight through Sunday night, where the supposedly reeling Patriots crushed the Jets at home. And few suffered from it more than my picks did. Aside from learning that not even guarantees are certain (paging Baltimore, anyone home?), Week 10 managed to show a few things. Green Bay is, barring a potential slipup in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, well on its way to an undefeated season. San Francisco is the NFL’s last best hope to stopping back-to-back championships for the Pack. Jim Schwartz’ purposeful lack of discipline is biting him yet again. Denver may well be in playoff range, and Baltimore is redefining “playing down to your opponent’s level.” But what might be most shocking is just how good Houston, and yet how bad they might be. Matt Schaub is officially out for the season, and what may be the NFL’s hottest team is now the AFC’s No. 1 team without three of its four best players. The parity in the NFL this year refuses to completely go away, but maybe Week 11 will help sort a few more things out. Here’s my picks:

Last Week: 6-10

Overall: 69-43

New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5):

It’s funny how fast a team can go from supposedly locking up its division to be counted out of the playoff race. The Jets did just that last week, and what we thought was an offense that was finally meshing just in time to take control of the AFC East was easily shut down by the league’s worst defense. New York’s defense is still as solid as ever, but the Band-aids have been ripped away from the kinks in the Jets’ offense and the fractures still haven’t healed. Denver, meanwhile, is enjoying the exact opposite trend. Counted out of the playoff race less than two weeks ago, the Broncos have been the benefactors of an entire division reeling and are now just a game out of first. John Fox finally wised up and let Tebow do Tebow’s thing (run the ball, win games, polarize America, etc.) and the Broncos have a chance for their first statement win (and home win) of the Tebow era.

Denver Broncos: 21-17

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4):

In the past four games, the Titans have gone from being demolished by the Texans on their own field to demolishing Cam Newton and the Panthers on their home field. True, Chris Johnson seems to have finally woken up, but that doesn’t explain how a defense that seemed to be on the edge of falling apart managed to shut down the league’s most dynamic rookie. Meanwhile, Atlanta, who was previously a lockdown choice at home, has dropped 3-of-5, including the overtime loss to New Orleans last week. It doesn’t matter the outcome, Mike Smith made the right call. He had the home-field advantage, a good quarterback and would have been relying on a sieve of a defense had he punted. It just didn’t work. He won’t need to make that call this week, though. Unless Johnson goes for 200, the Titans are not going to hand Atlanta its second home loss in as many weeks.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3):

This isn’t the way it was supposed to work for Newton. The Panthers were supposed to come off a bye full of energy, ready to whip up on the Titans before hitting the meat of their schedule. Now, they’re the whipping boys, and they’re walking into Ford Field to play a team that looks more ready to murder the opposing team than take the field against it. Speaking of which, Schwartz had this issue in Tennessee. Both he and former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher bred that kind of living-on-the-edge attitude (see Cortland Finnegan) on the defense, and while it took Tennessee to a 13-3 record in ’08, it also resulted in a complete collapse against the Steelers in the playoffs. Schwartz seemed to have hit that same road block against Chicago last week. For Matt Stafford’s part, he should be suspended. He instigated the brawl with a viciously cheap move and deserved his payback (although I’m not condoning that either. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise). If Detroit has any hopes of surviving a nuclear meltdown, Schwartz better have the off-field issues settled before Sunday.

Detroit Lions: 31-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6):

Jacksonville looks like a team that’s shocked to have won three games, while Cleveland is doing its best to show it too can have a shot at Andrew Luck if it wants. Both sides feature anemic offenses, although both run games have some upside. However, I would not advise keeping the TV on CBS if this is your regional game.

Cleveland Browns: 17-12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (9-0):

Sometimes good teams get blown out. They’re on the road, they have a bad game, and it’s really just a one-time thing. Good teams do not get blown out twice in one season, with the second one coming at home. The playing ability of the Bucs has managed to disappear in less than a year’s time, but a lot of this is the coaching. Given the offensive weapon LeGarette Blount is, the fact that he’s averaging nowhere near 20 carries per game is mind boggling. For instance, Raheem Morris should just look at Green Bay. That’s an offense in sync. He should get a good, long look this weekend.

Green Bay Packers: 34-17

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7):

Buffalo didn’t exactly pass its two-week test (OK, two blowouts is a failure), but strangely enough, it’s still very much alive in the wild-card chase. Unfortunately, now the Bills have to deal with a resurgent Miami team being led by former castoff Reggie Bush. (The Dolphins have a way with washed-up running backs, don’t they?) Buffalo doesn’t seem like the type of team to take two beatings in a row while lying down, but it’s hard to see any fire in this team right now. Miami actually seems like it’s playing with a purpose and finally figured out the secret to winning at home, which is gonna make Buffalo’s task extremely difficult this week.

Miami Dolphins: 27-17

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7):

Carson Palmer couldn’t have timed his comeback any better, hitting his stride just as the rest of the AFC West is falling down around him. The Vikings…well, Christian Ponder looks good for next year at least. Adrian Peterson should have a fun time gashing the Raiders porous run D, but the Vikings just have too little on pass coverage to slow down Carson Palmer at this point.

Oakland Raiders: 24-20

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6):

I’m not picking the Skins anymore. They just embarrass me.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-14

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3):

Considering the defenses Andy Dalton faces in the AFC North, he’s doing incredibly well for being tossed in the fire. (Get it, ‘cause he’s a redhead? No? OK…) Unfortunately for the Bengals, dynasties usually don’t change overnight, and that includes taking complete control of a division after almost a decade of ineptitude. And can Baltimore please make up its mind? The Ravens are causing me and a lot of other “experts” a ton of headaches with their beat-down-the-good-guy-lose-to-the-bad-guy act. Lucky for them, that bad loss already came and Cincinnati is good right now, so all the right Ravens players should show up. Should.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-23

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-7):

Apparently, the Hawks found a game plan. Give the ball to Marshawn Lynch. A lot. With Lynch back in the lineup, Seattle managed to completely control Baltimore last week. Of course, this is the same team that almost beat Atlanta in Atlanta, but then lost to Cleveland 6-3. Meanwhile, if a 2-7 team can be considered hot, the Rams are just that. Cleveland held the Rams to only 13 last week, which is what the Browns do, but the Rams’ offense is looking much improved in recent weeks. Sam Bradford is starting to hit his passes, and Stephen Jackson has channeled his old self. Unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are improving just a little bit fast at this point.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-16

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1):

Guess which division has the best record over the last two weeks? Yup, it’s the NFC West, just like we all would’ve predicted. Everyone’s winning over there right now, but too bad that has to come to an end. Arizona got lucky to play the floundering Eagles last week, but the 49ers won’t be the same story. Alex Smith looks better by the game, and the Niners proved that even if Frank Gore goes down, they still have plenty of weapons. San Francisco should just about wrap up the division this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-16

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3):

I know December is the Chargers’ month, but I did not see this free fall coming. Philip Rivers is looking like the most dangerous (in masochistic terms) quarterback in football right now, and Ryan Mathews is coming off an injury at the wrong time. The Bears defense has gelled, their offensive line has figured out how to block, and Devin Hester is … well, Devin Hester. Chicago has a huge risk of a letdown after how emotional their game with Detroit got last week, but it shouldn’t be too hard to overcome against the reeling Chargers.

Chicago Bears: 27-21

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3):

I’m gonna stop picking the Eagles too. It’s pointless to explain the abilities of this team, because at the end of the day, it simply can’t win. Meanwhile, even in after a loss, people spend the week talking about how good Eli Manning’s comeback abilities are. Doesn’t bode well for the Eagles.

New York Giants: 28-14

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3):

The Chiefs stumbled their way through the easiest part of their schedule, finishing at a resounding 0-2 for the last two weeks, and now they face a reinvigorated Patriots team that lost for the first time in Foxborough, where they’re coming off their first home loss in years. The Chiefs may keep it a battle, if they can get the passing game going, especially against the league’s worst defense, but it’s going to be too much for him to handle alone.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Week 10 NFL Predictions

I dislike Thursday night games. Not for any particular reason, other than it means I can’t be lazy about my writing, and I just really don’t like having to be un-lazy. But it couldn’t come at a better week. I need to forget about last week and my picks. That was just a painful performance (though SI’s Peter King went 5-9, so it could be a lot worse).

I’m not going to do a midseason award section, but since every team has officially reached its midway point, some players need to get some recognition for what they’ve done. Aaron Rodgers is a clear runaway for MVP, but he has competition from both Drew Brees and Tom Brady (though that’s quickly flagging) for possibly the best season by a QB in NFL history. Lesean McCoy has quietly taken control of the league and Matt Forte is about 60 percent of the reason the Bears are still in playoff contention. Calvin Johnson is proving everyone just how elite he is, and Steve Smith’s quiet resurgence might just be the best story no one’s heard about. DeMarcus Ware is playing like a man possessed and Patrick Willis has seems to multiply by 11 every time the 49ers’ defense takes the field.

All right, onto Week 10:

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 64-33

Oakland Raiders (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-4):

I wanna say the AFC West is a mess, but that’s not true. The entire AFC is a mess. Both Oakland and Kansas City had a shot to take control in the division, and neither one took advantage, losing to the two worst teams in the AFC, and now one of those teams, Denver, is firmly back in the West’s division race. Carson Palmer is being ripped in the media enough, but – and granted, I didn’t actually get to see the game – he threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns in his first start after coming straight out of retirement. That seems pretty effective to me. It’s not like Palmer had six months to build a rapport with these receivers. That said, what are the odds that Philip Rivers throws away another game in the fourth? … OK, maybe not too low, but San Diego isn’t going to lose three in a row, especially at home, especially to a division rival that’s hurting in every department right now. Ryan Mathews is back (again), and San Diego’s a different team with him.

San Diego Chargers: 31-17

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-6):

The Titans haven’t been horrible in their last month of play, but they simply haven’t been quite good enough to win. And to be good enough to win here, they have to shut down one of the most phenomenal rookies we’ve seen in years, after Cam Newton has been given two weeks to expand his playbook knowledge even further. Maybe Tennessee can keep up if Chris Johnson can stay hot for two straight weeks, but we’ve all seen enough of CJ to know that’s not a guarantee.

Carolina Panthers: 27-24

Detroit Lions (6-2) at Chicago Bears (5-3):

The last time these two played, Detroit was on its way to a 5-0 start, and Chicago looked to be out of the wild card race, as well as the divisional one, with its 2-3 start. Winners of three straight and having just shot down the explosive Eagles, the Bears are one game behind the Lions and have an excellent chance to close that gap Sunday. If Philadelphia wasn’t a fluke, and Chicago’s offensive line can actually keep Cutler standing in the pocket, Detroit’s in trouble. The Lions had no answer for Cutler’s passes (but an answer for everything else) in October, and it was a fully healthy and functional Jahvid Best that shredded the Bear defense. Now, Best is questionable, Detroit’s offense as a whole has stagnated, while its opportunistic defense is seeing fewer and fewer opportunities. Chicago’s about to make things interesting in the North.

Chicago Bears: 23-20

New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3):

Atlanta’s followed a path similar to Chicago’s, once left for dead in the NFC South race, and now just a half-game behind, with a chance to take the lead this Sunday. Granted, it was against the hapless Colts, but the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem seems to have finally clicked, Michael Turner just can’t be stopped and the Falcons’ D is starting to return to 2010 form. Plus, Matt Ryan doesn’t like losing in Atlanta. I guess it’s a grudge he bears for getting whipped them game after game in college. The Saints aren’t playing bad football themselves, and statistically, Drew Brees is simply amazing this year. But it’s only Drew Brees. New Orleans has yet to establish a solid running game, with most of its yards out of the backfield coming on Darren Sproles screen passes. Brees will get his 250-300 yards, but the Falcons should have fun forcing a few turnovers this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-24

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2):

Can anyone in the AFC stay consistent this year? As yet, only Cincinnati seems to have avoided falling prey to the AFC-wide trend, with Pittsburgh being the latest victim. A week after thrashing the Patriots, Pittsburgh turned around and gave away the sweep to Baltimore, at home. Roethlisberger didn’t look bad, but the run game has become anemic and the defense seemed to simply be beaten down by the end of the night. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they win games on defense. Andy Dalton has turned several heads (deservedly so) this season, but you can bet Dick LeBeau and Mike Tomlin have had a few choice words to inspire this Steelers defense. Look for Cincinnati to become the next inconsistency victim this year and muddy the AFC picture just a little bit more.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 21-17

St. Louis Rams (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)

Some 90 percent of the country got to watch either Green Bay-San Diego or New York-New England on Fox last week. I got stuck watching St. Louis-Arizona. And by stuck, I mean I got bored at half-time. Apparently, that’s when things got exciting, but oh well. I don’t regret the decision, and I’m not going to hold out hope this week. Sam Bradford is back, as should be Danario Alexander, so the Rams should stay competitive, but this is Cleveland’s home turf, and the Browns are not a bad team on either side of the ball, simply stuck with injuries and a really good division.

Cleveland Browns: 24-13

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4):

Remember how I said I didn’t see the Bills actually making the playoffs this year? Yeah, that projection started a week early, with the egg lain against the Jets. Dallas isn’t going to make it any easier. Ryan Fitzpatrick struggles against defenses where he’s required to make big plays, and that’s exactly what Ware and Co. are going to make him do. Dallas’ run defense has been porous lately, but look for Rob Ryan to focus on making adjustments to that with Fred Jackson coming into town. DeMarco Murray has been a godsend to the Cowboys with their rash of injuries, and he should play a critical role this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 30-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-9):

This is it. If the Colts are going to have a chance to break their winless streak, it will be Week 10 versus the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Indianapolis just looks worse and worse as the year progresses, and Jacksonville has had a week to get healthy and prepare for this game. Maurice Jones-Drew alone would probably be enough to beat these Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-10

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4):

Tim Tebow just won’t go away. But he also won’t stick around, fluctuating between good and bad so often, he makes Brett Favre’s retirement decisions seem logical. Unfortunately, the Broncos can’t do much more than run the ball with Tebow under center. Willis McGahee had a career day last week (which sucked for this of us who forced to play Knowshon Moreno in fantasy), but don’t expect the Chiefs to allow the same kind of yardage, especially after getting gashed by Reggie Bush and the Dolphins at home last week. The Broncos have a chance to pull even with two other AFC West teams, but this is the closest they’ll get. They simply have too many questions to answer to compete with an improving Chiefs team.

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-14

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (1-7):

Looking back at my picks, it really seems like I have a ton of faith in the Redskins. That’s not true. I just don’t have that much faith in their opposition. The same holds true this week. The Skins are anemic on offense, incapable of finding the end zone, but their defense is just as staunch as it’s been all season. The Dolphins are on a hot streak (I can say that after breaking a seven-game losing streak, right?), but they have plenty to answer for, and seem to have a fondness for losing at home.

Washington Redskins: 17-10

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5):

This shouldn’t be close. Philadelphia played a good game against Chicago but simply couldn’t find a way to win. Arizona played a good game against the Rams, but would have lost were it not for a few key plays. These are two teams going in completely opposite directions.

Philadelphia Eagles: 37-14

Houston Texans (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4):

Tampa Bay, meet the AFC. You both have a lot in common, namely that you can’t decide whether to be really good or really bad this year. Aside from an embarrassment in San Fran earlier in the year, Tampa Bay has been solidly a little bit above average. Josh Freeman just can’t be clutch, and LeGarette Blount is as good as last year, but for some reason, the coaching staff just doesn’t seem to be willing to put its faith in him. Andre Johnson looks iffy for the Texans again, and while Arian Foster has been the answer to everything, Houston’s going to need its offense firing on all cylinders to walk out of Tampa Bay with a win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-20

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-6):

Speaking of teams going in the opposite direction … If it weren’t for Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks might very well be winless right now. Of course, if it weren’t for Ray Rice, Baltimore might be 2-6, rather than 6-2. Baltimore’s got a lot more assets than a running back though, and the Ravens should simply impose their will on Seattle Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-13

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1):

I keep expecting San Francisco to have a let-down game, and I keep being proven wrong. It’s shocking how well Jim Harbaugh has been impressive in turning around the Niners on such short notice, but he’s not doing anything magical. San Fran had a good defense last year, and Frank Gore has always been a great back. Harbaugh focused on those assets, and all of a sudden San Francisco is a contender. New York is in the same boat, with the same tools it’s had for years, but this team is looking as good as it’s been since mid-2008. Eli is the reason “clutch” can finally be associated with the Manning name, and he’s finding near-miraculous ways to do so. If you get a chance to watch this game, don’t change the channel. It should be great from start to finish, but San Fran’s defense should be just enough to hold off New York.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-14

New England Patriots (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3):

It’s not quite time to hit the panic button in New England, but the finger should be on it right now. That absurdly efficient defense we all watch through the first four games of the season is nowhere to be found now, and they’re coming up against the Jets at the wrong time, as New York seems to finally be clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots’ defense is much improved from earlier in the year, but the Brady and Welker show has to reestablish itself to keep New England in contention, which it won’t be doing.

New York Jets: 27-24

Minnesota Vikings (2-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-0):

Christian Ponder performed well against Green Bay in his first official start, but now that the Packers have a bead on him, and the Frozen Tundra as well, things won’t be so easy for Minnesota. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is as hot as any quarterback has ever been in league history. This could ugly fast.

Green Bay Packers: 31-10

Week 9 NFL Predictions

Just when we hit the midway point and think that the season’s settling down, that the bad teams are bad and the good teams are good, we get Tebow, we get Miami, we get Baltimore, but most of all, we get Jackson. St. Louis didn’t just upset the Saints to earn its first win of the season, it absolutely demolished the Saints, thanks in most part to Stephen Jackson, who had close to a career day. Tim Tebow was finally, consistently bad, which means more inconsistency at Denver’s QB position within the next few weeks. The Dolphins can’t decide whether they want Andrew Luck or whether they don’t want their second 1-15 season in the last four years (take the latter, Miami. Seriously, take the latter), and the Ravens are busy personifying just how wacky the AFC Wild Card race could get this year. Halfway through the season, the AFC has no clear-cut division leaders – in fact, every division has less than a half-game difference between first and second – and 12 of the 16 teams are solidly in contention for the playoffs. This week should help clear up that mess just a bit. Let’s get to Week 9:

Last Week: 8-4 (I forgot about the Houston-Jacksonville game. It’s a bit depressing.)

Overall: 56-27

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-3):

How ugly does that Week 2 loss to the Broncos look for Cincinnati now? It’s a smear on an otherwise remarkable season for the Bengals, who are putting away games with incredible defense and great fourth quarters … which is about the opposite of what the Titans have been doing lately. Tennessee’s defense has plummeted, defenses seem to have figured out Matt Hasselbeck, and if Chris Johnson doesn’t get benched soon, Tennessee may be throwing away its playoff hopes simply to get its money’s worth out of him. If Andy Dalton can keep from making big mistakes on the road, Cincinnati should keep its win streak, and its surprising first-place position in the AFC North, alive.

Cincinnati Bengals: 21-13

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2):

It’s been a loooong time since the Bills were the frontrunners in the AFC East race. Granted, I don’t think they’ll follow through this year, they’re still off to what has to be the turnaround of the season. Mark Sanchez is just the kind of quarterback that the Bills’ D thrives on: nearly incapable of big plays and horribly mistake prone. The Jets defense is playing as well as ever, and Darrelle Revis is still the NFL’s premier shutdown corner, but Buffalo’s offense, led by Fred Jackson, is close to unstoppable right now. The Jets should be right where they wanna be going into the second half of the season: .500.

Buffalo Bills: 27-16

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4):

Well, it’s official, Seattle’s offense can only move with Tarvaris Jackson under center. Unfortunately, it still can’t score. Marshawn Lynch is back and, presumably, fully healthy again, but don’t expect him to imitate LeSean McCoy this week. Dallas is coming off a Philadelphia flop, getting embarrassed in just about every possible on primetime. This is a team that could (and probably should) be a legit 6-1 right now, and Seattle simply will not have the manpower to stop what’s likely to be the best-looking offensive performance of the season for Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-21

Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-8):

I’m running out of reasons to write paragraphs about the Colts games. This team hasn’t been competitive since its collapse in Week 4 against Kansas City. On the bright side, they’re giving Peyton Manning a legitimate shot at being the first player in history to win the MVP for a season without taking a snap.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Miami Dolphins (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3):

Oh oh, I know what’s gonna happen here! Miami’s gonna race out to a three-score lead, then redefine epic collapse for the third week in a row. KC is gonna keep rolling into sole ownership of first place in the AFC West, and all will be right with the world … Just kidding. Dolphins have to win one eventually. It’s scary how competitive this team has been in recent weeks, and if Daniel Thomas can come back healthy this week, a run-based Miami offense should present some serious challenges for the Chiefs’ D, which couldn’t seem to get off the field last week without help from Philip Rivers. Miami will try to throw this, but someone will accidentally pick off a Matt Cassel pass in the red zone late in the fourth.

Miami Dolphins: 24-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-3):

All I have for you, Tampa Bay is one word: Ouch. Everything fits for the Bucs right now. Bye week, healthy LeGarette Blount, a Josh Freeman that finally seems to be back to 2010 form. Problem is, the Saints didn’t just lose to the Rams. They were embarrassed, outplayed from start to finish, with absolutely no answer on either side of the ball. Now they’re back home, and coach Sean Payton should be back to playcalling (who knew that would be a big deal against St. Louis?) this week. Plus, Drew Brees isn’t the type to give away two division games in a season to the same team.

New Orleans Saints: 31-27

San Francisco 49ers (6-1) at Washington Redskins (3-4):

San Francisco is rolling. The Niners are easily the hottest team in the NFL, and their D may be the only answer to Aaron Rodgers in the NFC right now. But that’s for later. For right now, we worry about the confidence of going from division bottom-feeder to a five-game win streak and four game division lead. (Did I mention they’ve only played 7 games? That’s really sad.) Washington has yet to win with Josh Beck under center, which begs the question: Why has Shanahan not yanked him yet? My guess: It’s because Beck has shown flashes of ability; he just hasn’t put together a full game. The Skins defense is still one of the stingier teams in the league when it comes to points allowed, and that’s going to play to their advantage against a team that doesn’t turn the ball over. If Washington can stop Frank Gore and force the game onto Alex Smith’s shoulders, it can stop San Fran. But I don’t think that will happen.

Washington Redskins: 16-13

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Houston Texans (5-3):

Aside from a near-blowout loss to Tennessee in Week 4, Cleveland has, at the least, been competitive in every one of its games, its defense making up for Colt McCoy’s lack of fireworks on the offense. Peyton Hillis has been plagued by injuries this year, and the Browns still have no receiving threat. Houston’s pass defense is already good enough without assistance from the other side. Now Arian Foster is in full stride and Matt Schaub is playing as well as he’s played all year. Have fun keeping up, Cleveland.

Houston Texans: 34-17

Denver Broncos (2-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-3):

Oakland couldn’t have timed this bye week any better. Carson Palmer has had two weeks to get used to the offense after that disaster against Kansas City, and now he gets to ease himself back into the league against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Also, Tebow should have fun playing against one of the stingiest secondaries in the league.

Oakland Raiders: 34-17

New York Giants (5-2) at New England Patriots (5-2):

OK, I was wrong about saying that Belichick doesn’t lose after bye weeks. He clearly did. And the league seems to have figured out the conundrum that was Tom Brady-to-Wes Welker. Eli Manning has the Giants offense rolling, as shown by the double-digit comeback he managed to pull off against Miami last week. However, Ahmad Bradshaw is, at the very least, hobbled for the game, and Brandon Jacobs isn’t the same Jacobs we saw dominate the league two years. Plus, the Giants defense isn’t the Steelers defense, and it doesn’t have the advantage of a home turf. New York needs a perfect game out of Eli to pull off the upset, but even that may not be enough if Brady manages to find his groove again.

New England Patriots: 38-28

St. Louis Rams (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6):

This was shaping up to be the pillow fight of the season before St. Louis beat the Saints and Kevin Kolb was knocked out of the matchup. Now the only question is, can home-field advantage and Beanie Wells be enough to stop St. Louis and the (questionable) return of Sam Bradford? Probably. That’s the beauty of parody. Even with a fully healthy offense, St. Louis is not playoff caliber, and these teams are both bad enough that this could go either way, and Arizona needs this win a lot worse than St. Louis right now.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-17

Green Bay Packers (7-0) at San Diego Chargers (4-3):

It’s hard to explain just how much the Chargers needed the win that Rivers fumbled away Monday night. The collapse in New York, followed by that game, have turned what was once a comfortable lead in a good division into a three-way tie. Granted, the Chargers are historically great in December, they first have to survive a tough November schedule that starts with the league’s best quarterback coming off a bye. Ryan Matthews is probably out for the game as well, and San Diego’s bend-don’t-break attitude on defense won’t be much use against a quarterback who simply doesn’t mess up.

Green Bay Packers: 34-23

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2):

That’s two weeks in a row that Monday Night Football is worth watching. About time ESPN shaped up on the scheduling. Think the Steelers are walking with a little more confidence this week? The Patriots’ score was much closer than the game was. Pittsburgh simply dominated that game in every facet, right down to the final, heads-up (blatantly illegal) play by Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are incredibly good at home this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and Joe Flacco won’t make things any easier with his struggles. If Baltimore falls into a deep hole for the third straight week, this Steelers’ D won’t be the kind to relent.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-16

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4):

That’s two weeks in a row that Monday Night Football is worth watching. About time ESPN shaped up on the scheduling. As for Chicago, it is not a good time to be a Philadelphia visitor right now. The Eagles are clearly frustrated with their results and, as Dallas found out, are now looking for teams to take those frustrations out on. Philly came out of the bye week clicking on all cylinders, offensively and defensively, and the Bears simply don’t have the defensive ability to match every Philadelphia weapon – then again, not many teams do right now. If the Eagles D stays as relentless as it was last week and consistently gets to Jay Cutler, it won’t matter how much Matt Forte does to carry the team; it won’t be enough.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-20