I dislike Thursday night games. Not for any particular reason, other than it means I can’t be lazy about my writing, and I just really don’t like having to be un-lazy. But it couldn’t come at a better week. I need to forget about last week and my picks. That was just a painful performance (though SI’s Peter King went 5-9, so it could be a lot worse).
I’m not going to do a midseason award section, but since every team has officially reached its midway point, some players need to get some recognition for what they’ve done. Aaron Rodgers is a clear runaway for MVP, but he has competition from both Drew Brees and Tom Brady (though that’s quickly flagging) for possibly the best season by a QB in NFL history. Lesean McCoy has quietly taken control of the league and Matt Forte is about 60 percent of the reason the Bears are still in playoff contention. Calvin Johnson is proving everyone just how elite he is, and Steve Smith’s quiet resurgence might just be the best story no one’s heard about. DeMarcus Ware is playing like a man possessed and Patrick Willis has seems to multiply by 11 every time the 49ers’ defense takes the field.
All right, onto Week 10:
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 64-33
Oakland Raiders (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-4):
I wanna say the AFC West is a mess, but that’s not true. The entire AFC is a mess. Both Oakland and Kansas City had a shot to take control in the division, and neither one took advantage, losing to the two worst teams in the AFC, and now one of those teams, Denver, is firmly back in the West’s division race. Carson Palmer is being ripped in the media enough, but – and granted, I didn’t actually get to see the game – he threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns in his first start after coming straight out of retirement. That seems pretty effective to me. It’s not like Palmer had six months to build a rapport with these receivers. That said, what are the odds that Philip Rivers throws away another game in the fourth? … OK, maybe not too low, but San Diego isn’t going to lose three in a row, especially at home, especially to a division rival that’s hurting in every department right now. Ryan Mathews is back (again), and San Diego’s a different team with him.
San Diego Chargers: 31-17
Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-6):
The Titans haven’t been horrible in their last month of play, but they simply haven’t been quite good enough to win. And to be good enough to win here, they have to shut down one of the most phenomenal rookies we’ve seen in years, after Cam Newton has been given two weeks to expand his playbook knowledge even further. Maybe Tennessee can keep up if Chris Johnson can stay hot for two straight weeks, but we’ve all seen enough of CJ to know that’s not a guarantee.
Carolina Panthers: 27-24
Detroit Lions (6-2) at Chicago Bears (5-3):
The last time these two played, Detroit was on its way to a 5-0 start, and Chicago looked to be out of the wild card race, as well as the divisional one, with its 2-3 start. Winners of three straight and having just shot down the explosive Eagles, the Bears are one game behind the Lions and have an excellent chance to close that gap Sunday. If Philadelphia wasn’t a fluke, and Chicago’s offensive line can actually keep Cutler standing in the pocket, Detroit’s in trouble. The Lions had no answer for Cutler’s passes (but an answer for everything else) in October, and it was a fully healthy and functional Jahvid Best that shredded the Bear defense. Now, Best is questionable, Detroit’s offense as a whole has stagnated, while its opportunistic defense is seeing fewer and fewer opportunities. Chicago’s about to make things interesting in the North.
Chicago Bears: 23-20
New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3):
Atlanta’s followed a path similar to Chicago’s, once left for dead in the NFC South race, and now just a half-game behind, with a chance to take the lead this Sunday. Granted, it was against the hapless Colts, but the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem seems to have finally clicked, Michael Turner just can’t be stopped and the Falcons’ D is starting to return to 2010 form. Plus, Matt Ryan doesn’t like losing in Atlanta. I guess it’s a grudge he bears for getting whipped them game after game in college. The Saints aren’t playing bad football themselves, and statistically, Drew Brees is simply amazing this year. But it’s only Drew Brees. New Orleans has yet to establish a solid running game, with most of its yards out of the backfield coming on Darren Sproles screen passes. Brees will get his 250-300 yards, but the Falcons should have fun forcing a few turnovers this week.
Atlanta Falcons: 31-24
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2):
Can anyone in the AFC stay consistent this year? As yet, only Cincinnati seems to have avoided falling prey to the AFC-wide trend, with Pittsburgh being the latest victim. A week after thrashing the Patriots, Pittsburgh turned around and gave away the sweep to Baltimore, at home. Roethlisberger didn’t look bad, but the run game has become anemic and the defense seemed to simply be beaten down by the end of the night. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they win games on defense. Andy Dalton has turned several heads (deservedly so) this season, but you can bet Dick LeBeau and Mike Tomlin have had a few choice words to inspire this Steelers defense. Look for Cincinnati to become the next inconsistency victim this year and muddy the AFC picture just a little bit more.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 21-17
St. Louis Rams (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)
Some 90 percent of the country got to watch either Green Bay-San Diego or New York-New England on Fox last week. I got stuck watching St. Louis-Arizona. And by stuck, I mean I got bored at half-time. Apparently, that’s when things got exciting, but oh well. I don’t regret the decision, and I’m not going to hold out hope this week. Sam Bradford is back, as should be Danario Alexander, so the Rams should stay competitive, but this is Cleveland’s home turf, and the Browns are not a bad team on either side of the ball, simply stuck with injuries and a really good division.
Cleveland Browns: 24-13
Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4):
Remember how I said I didn’t see the Bills actually making the playoffs this year? Yeah, that projection started a week early, with the egg lain against the Jets. Dallas isn’t going to make it any easier. Ryan Fitzpatrick struggles against defenses where he’s required to make big plays, and that’s exactly what Ware and Co. are going to make him do. Dallas’ run defense has been porous lately, but look for Rob Ryan to focus on making adjustments to that with Fred Jackson coming into town. DeMarco Murray has been a godsend to the Cowboys with their rash of injuries, and he should play a critical role this week.
Dallas Cowboys: 30-20
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-9):
This is it. If the Colts are going to have a chance to break their winless streak, it will be Week 10 versus the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Indianapolis just looks worse and worse as the year progresses, and Jacksonville has had a week to get healthy and prepare for this game. Maurice Jones-Drew alone would probably be enough to beat these Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-10
Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4):
Tim Tebow just won’t go away. But he also won’t stick around, fluctuating between good and bad so often, he makes Brett Favre’s retirement decisions seem logical. Unfortunately, the Broncos can’t do much more than run the ball with Tebow under center. Willis McGahee had a career day last week (which sucked for this of us who forced to play Knowshon Moreno in fantasy), but don’t expect the Chiefs to allow the same kind of yardage, especially after getting gashed by Reggie Bush and the Dolphins at home last week. The Broncos have a chance to pull even with two other AFC West teams, but this is the closest they’ll get. They simply have too many questions to answer to compete with an improving Chiefs team.
Kansas City Chiefs: 31-14
Washington Redskins (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (1-7):
Looking back at my picks, it really seems like I have a ton of faith in the Redskins. That’s not true. I just don’t have that much faith in their opposition. The same holds true this week. The Skins are anemic on offense, incapable of finding the end zone, but their defense is just as staunch as it’s been all season. The Dolphins are on a hot streak (I can say that after breaking a seven-game losing streak, right?), but they have plenty to answer for, and seem to have a fondness for losing at home.
Washington Redskins: 17-10
Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5):
This shouldn’t be close. Philadelphia played a good game against Chicago but simply couldn’t find a way to win. Arizona played a good game against the Rams, but would have lost were it not for a few key plays. These are two teams going in completely opposite directions.
Philadelphia Eagles: 37-14
Houston Texans (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4):
Tampa Bay, meet the AFC. You both have a lot in common, namely that you can’t decide whether to be really good or really bad this year. Aside from an embarrassment in San Fran earlier in the year, Tampa Bay has been solidly a little bit above average. Josh Freeman just can’t be clutch, and LeGarette Blount is as good as last year, but for some reason, the coaching staff just doesn’t seem to be willing to put its faith in him. Andre Johnson looks iffy for the Texans again, and while Arian Foster has been the answer to everything, Houston’s going to need its offense firing on all cylinders to walk out of Tampa Bay with a win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-20
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-6):
Speaking of teams going in the opposite direction … If it weren’t for Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks might very well be winless right now. Of course, if it weren’t for Ray Rice, Baltimore might be 2-6, rather than 6-2. Baltimore’s got a lot more assets than a running back though, and the Ravens should simply impose their will on Seattle Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens: 27-13
New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1):
I keep expecting San Francisco to have a let-down game, and I keep being proven wrong. It’s shocking how well Jim Harbaugh has been impressive in turning around the Niners on such short notice, but he’s not doing anything magical. San Fran had a good defense last year, and Frank Gore has always been a great back. Harbaugh focused on those assets, and all of a sudden San Francisco is a contender. New York is in the same boat, with the same tools it’s had for years, but this team is looking as good as it’s been since mid-2008. Eli is the reason “clutch” can finally be associated with the Manning name, and he’s finding near-miraculous ways to do so. If you get a chance to watch this game, don’t change the channel. It should be great from start to finish, but San Fran’s defense should be just enough to hold off New York.
San Francisco 49ers: 17-14
New England Patriots (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3):
It’s not quite time to hit the panic button in New England, but the finger should be on it right now. That absurdly efficient defense we all watch through the first four games of the season is nowhere to be found now, and they’re coming up against the Jets at the wrong time, as New York seems to finally be clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots’ defense is much improved from earlier in the year, but the Brady and Welker show has to reestablish itself to keep New England in contention, which it won’t be doing.
New York Jets: 27-24
Minnesota Vikings (2-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-0):
Christian Ponder performed well against Green Bay in his first official start, but now that the Packers have a bead on him, and the Frozen Tundra as well, things won’t be so easy for Minnesota. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is as hot as any quarterback has ever been in league history. This could ugly fast.
Green Bay Packers: 31-10
No comments:
Post a Comment