Talk about a weekend of upsets. The Raiders started it off by handling the reeling Chargers at home, and it continued straight through Sunday night, where the supposedly reeling Patriots crushed the Jets at home. And few suffered from it more than my picks did. Aside from learning that not even guarantees are certain (paging Baltimore, anyone home?), Week 10 managed to show a few things. Green Bay is, barring a potential slipup in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, well on its way to an undefeated season. San Francisco is the NFL’s last best hope to stopping back-to-back championships for the Pack. Jim Schwartz’ purposeful lack of discipline is biting him yet again. Denver may well be in playoff range, and Baltimore is redefining “playing down to your opponent’s level.” But what might be most shocking is just how good Houston, and yet how bad they might be. Matt Schaub is officially out for the season, and what may be the NFL’s hottest team is now the AFC’s No. 1 team without three of its four best players. The parity in the NFL this year refuses to completely go away, but maybe Week 11 will help sort a few more things out. Here’s my picks:
Last Week: 6-10
Overall: 69-43
New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5):
It’s funny how fast a team can go from supposedly locking up its division to be counted out of the playoff race. The Jets did just that last week, and what we thought was an offense that was finally meshing just in time to take control of the AFC East was easily shut down by the league’s worst defense. New York’s defense is still as solid as ever, but the Band-aids have been ripped away from the kinks in the Jets’ offense and the fractures still haven’t healed. Denver, meanwhile, is enjoying the exact opposite trend. Counted out of the playoff race less than two weeks ago, the Broncos have been the benefactors of an entire division reeling and are now just a game out of first. John Fox finally wised up and let Tebow do Tebow’s thing (run the ball, win games, polarize America, etc.) and the Broncos have a chance for their first statement win (and home win) of the Tebow era.
Denver Broncos: 21-17
Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4):
In the past four games, the Titans have gone from being demolished by the Texans on their own field to demolishing Cam Newton and the Panthers on their home field. True, Chris Johnson seems to have finally woken up, but that doesn’t explain how a defense that seemed to be on the edge of falling apart managed to shut down the league’s most dynamic rookie. Meanwhile, Atlanta, who was previously a lockdown choice at home, has dropped 3-of-5, including the overtime loss to New Orleans last week. It doesn’t matter the outcome, Mike Smith made the right call. He had the home-field advantage, a good quarterback and would have been relying on a sieve of a defense had he punted. It just didn’t work. He won’t need to make that call this week, though. Unless Johnson goes for 200, the Titans are not going to hand Atlanta its second home loss in as many weeks.
Atlanta Falcons: 27-20
Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3):
This isn’t the way it was supposed to work for Newton. The Panthers were supposed to come off a bye full of energy, ready to whip up on the Titans before hitting the meat of their schedule. Now, they’re the whipping boys, and they’re walking into Ford Field to play a team that looks more ready to murder the opposing team than take the field against it. Speaking of which, Schwartz had this issue in Tennessee. Both he and former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher bred that kind of living-on-the-edge attitude (see Cortland Finnegan) on the defense, and while it took Tennessee to a 13-3 record in ’08, it also resulted in a complete collapse against the Steelers in the playoffs. Schwartz seemed to have hit that same road block against Chicago last week. For Matt Stafford’s part, he should be suspended. He instigated the brawl with a viciously cheap move and deserved his payback (although I’m not condoning that either. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise). If Detroit has any hopes of surviving a nuclear meltdown, Schwartz better have the off-field issues settled before Sunday.
Detroit Lions: 31-23
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6):
Jacksonville looks like a team that’s shocked to have won three games, while Cleveland is doing its best to show it too can have a shot at Andrew Luck if it wants. Both sides feature anemic offenses, although both run games have some upside. However, I would not advise keeping the TV on CBS if this is your regional game.
Cleveland Browns: 17-12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (9-0):
Sometimes good teams get blown out. They’re on the road, they have a bad game, and it’s really just a one-time thing. Good teams do not get blown out twice in one season, with the second one coming at home. The playing ability of the Bucs has managed to disappear in less than a year’s time, but a lot of this is the coaching. Given the offensive weapon LeGarette Blount is, the fact that he’s averaging nowhere near 20 carries per game is mind boggling. For instance, Raheem Morris should just look at Green Bay. That’s an offense in sync. He should get a good, long look this weekend.
Green Bay Packers: 34-17
Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7):
Buffalo didn’t exactly pass its two-week test (OK, two blowouts is a failure), but strangely enough, it’s still very much alive in the wild-card chase. Unfortunately, now the Bills have to deal with a resurgent Miami team being led by former castoff Reggie Bush. (The Dolphins have a way with washed-up running backs, don’t they?) Buffalo doesn’t seem like the type of team to take two beatings in a row while lying down, but it’s hard to see any fire in this team right now. Miami actually seems like it’s playing with a purpose and finally figured out the secret to winning at home, which is gonna make Buffalo’s task extremely difficult this week.
Miami Dolphins: 27-17
Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7):
Carson Palmer couldn’t have timed his comeback any better, hitting his stride just as the rest of the AFC West is falling down around him. The Vikings…well, Christian Ponder looks good for next year at least. Adrian Peterson should have a fun time gashing the Raiders porous run D, but the Vikings just have too little on pass coverage to slow down Carson Palmer at this point.
Oakland Raiders: 24-20
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6):
I’m not picking the Skins anymore. They just embarrass me.
Dallas Cowboys: 31-14
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3):
Considering the defenses Andy Dalton faces in the AFC North, he’s doing incredibly well for being tossed in the fire. (Get it, ‘cause he’s a redhead? No? OK…) Unfortunately for the Bengals, dynasties usually don’t change overnight, and that includes taking complete control of a division after almost a decade of ineptitude. And can Baltimore please make up its mind? The Ravens are causing me and a lot of other “experts” a ton of headaches with their beat-down-the-good-guy-lose-to-the-bad-guy act. Lucky for them, that bad loss already came and Cincinnati is good right now, so all the right Ravens players should show up. Should.
Baltimore Ravens: 27-23
Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-7):
Apparently, the Hawks found a game plan. Give the ball to Marshawn Lynch. A lot. With Lynch back in the lineup, Seattle managed to completely control Baltimore last week. Of course, this is the same team that almost beat Atlanta in Atlanta, but then lost to Cleveland 6-3. Meanwhile, if a 2-7 team can be considered hot, the Rams are just that. Cleveland held the Rams to only 13 last week, which is what the Browns do, but the Rams’ offense is looking much improved in recent weeks. Sam Bradford is starting to hit his passes, and Stephen Jackson has channeled his old self. Unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are improving just a little bit fast at this point.
Seattle Seahawks: 23-16
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1):
Guess which division has the best record over the last two weeks? Yup, it’s the NFC West, just like we all would’ve predicted. Everyone’s winning over there right now, but too bad that has to come to an end. Arizona got lucky to play the floundering Eagles last week, but the 49ers won’t be the same story. Alex Smith looks better by the game, and the Niners proved that even if Frank Gore goes down, they still have plenty of weapons. San Francisco should just about wrap up the division this week.
San Francisco 49ers: 31-16
San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3):
I know December is the Chargers’ month, but I did not see this free fall coming. Philip Rivers is looking like the most dangerous (in masochistic terms) quarterback in football right now, and Ryan Mathews is coming off an injury at the wrong time. The Bears defense has gelled, their offensive line has figured out how to block, and Devin Hester is … well, Devin Hester. Chicago has a huge risk of a letdown after how emotional their game with Detroit got last week, but it shouldn’t be too hard to overcome against the reeling Chargers.
Chicago Bears: 27-21
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3):
I’m gonna stop picking the Eagles too. It’s pointless to explain the abilities of this team, because at the end of the day, it simply can’t win. Meanwhile, even in after a loss, people spend the week talking about how good Eli Manning’s comeback abilities are. Doesn’t bode well for the Eagles.
New York Giants: 28-14
Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3):
The Chiefs stumbled their way through the easiest part of their schedule, finishing at a resounding 0-2 for the last two weeks, and now they face a reinvigorated Patriots team that lost for the first time in Foxborough, where they’re coming off their first home loss in years. The Chiefs may keep it a battle, if they can get the passing game going, especially against the league’s worst defense, but it’s going to be too much for him to handle alone.
New England Patriots: 34-24
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