This has to stop. Tim Tebow is now making incredible waves without even doing anything. The Broncos waived Kyle Orton this week, the Chiefs picked him up, and now the AFC West seems permanently muddled. Two of the hottest teams in the NFL (Texans and Bears) have lost their quarterbacks as well, both for at least the remainder of the season. On the other hand, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers continue their record-shattering paces and each one seems primed to control their own destinies for the remainder of the season. In other words, it’s all about the quarterback right now. (Isn’t it always, though?) It’s not just the quarterback, though. DeMarco Murray has the Cowboys surging, with a strong chance to take full control of the NFC East this week, while thanks to an explosion by Kevin Smith, the Lions were able to mount their third 17+-point comeback against Carolina, setting the stage for possibly the biggest showdown in the NFC this year. With that in mind, here are my picks for the week.
Last Week: 13-1
Overall: 82-44
Green Bay Packers (10-0) at Detroit Lions (7-3):
Both of these teams started hot, but despite shaky defensive play in recent weeks, the Packers have managed to stay undefeated, doing so in dominating fashion. Aaron Rodgers seems simply unstoppable right now, and the defense is capitalizing off the fact that opposing offenses have to do their best to keep up. On the other side, Detroit is dealing with success it literally hasn’t experienced in generations, and it shows. What was a hot 5-0 start is now a rocky 2-3 stretch, where the Lions have gone from blowing out the Broncos, to getting blown out, to destroying the Panthers in a half. Detroit’s offense is clearly one of the highest caliber in the league, but it seems to function only on emotion. Fortunately, Green Bay and Thanksgiving Day should give the Lions all they need for motivation.
Detroit Lions: 37-34
Miami Dolphins (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-4):
Miami’s another one of those teams that lost its QB to a season-ending injury, but strangely enough, it seems to have actually helped the Dolphins. It may be too little too late, but a resurgent Reggie Bush is leading an offense that can seemingly do no wrong right now. Meanwhile, the rookie Murray is doing the exact same thing for Dallas, taking the game out of Tony Romo’s choking hands being the biggest impact he’s made. Unlike Miami, though, Dallas has a great defense and gets the home-field advantage. Miami’s hot streak ends in the House That Jerry Built.
Dallas Cowboys: 27-14
San Francisco 49ers (9-1) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3):
It’s hard to imagine a better lineup of games on a Thanksgiving Day, and no better game could headline the day than the battle of the brothers. John Harbaugh’s spent years in the league proving himself, while the upstart Jim Harbaugh has the Niners looking like the only team that could possibly keep pace with the Packers at this point. Nobody is winning games like the Niners this year, primarily on defense, with a quarterback who simply doesn’t make mistakes, but they also haven’t played a defense like the Ravens’. Ray Lewis may miss this matchup, but John shouldn’t need any extra help motivating his defense to a star performance this week.
Baltimore Ravens: 17-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-5):
It’s a testament to the flaws of the Green Bay defense that the Tampa Bay offense managed to put up 26 points. This is NOT a good offense, in no way similar last year’s, and it’s clearly struggled against solid defenses (see Houston, San Francisco), and every step forward seems to countered by a step back – LeGarette Blount goes off, Josh Freeman throws a couple more picks. Tennessee is maintaining its middle-of-the-road look on both sides of the ball, but it’s now in prime position to take control of the reeling AFC South after Schaub’s injury. This game will go a long way toward showing if the Titans can capitalize, and I think they’ll do so.
Tennessee Titans: 31-20
Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4):
The Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Peterson didn’t have a very good shot at beating Atlanta in Atlanta. Without him? Well, Percy Harvin is the backup for a reason. The Vikings can’t stop anything on defense – its best talent is simply slowing down the running backs – and despite a flawed Falcons’ defense, Minnesota is too muddled on offense to take advantage. Falcons should keep pace with the Saints this week.
Atlanta Falcons: 28-13
Cleveland Browns (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4):
Cleveland finally managed to hold on for its first win in what feels like forever, despite one of the easiest schedules of the last month. The Browns are only two games behind the Bengals, but it feels like four or five from the way the two teams are playing. With the loss of A.J. Green last week, Andy Dalton showed it really is his talent that’s allowing the Bengals to keep pace for a shot at the wild card. Losing two in a row is never a good thing, but Cinci fans have to have hope with the way their team performed over the last two weeks, and this should be a good place to turn the corner.
Cincinnati Bengals: 14-10
Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Indianapolis Colts (0-10):
Anything I say about the Colts at this point just makes me sound like a broken record. This team is going 0-16. Carolina, though, there’s a lot I can say about how bad this defense seems to be getting. Detroit has an explosive offense, but Kevin Smith isn’t that good. He was cut during the preseason for a reason. That said, Carolina should have another week to figure out where those holes are and plug them.
Carolina Panthers: 34-17
Arizona Cardinals (3-7) at St. Louis Rams (2-8):
Neither of these teams has a chance at respectability this year, but Arizona essentially stole one from the Rams in Phoenix earlier this year, and that gives the Rams something to play for right now. Plus, John Skelton makes Kevin Kolb look really, really good, and he’s really, really not.
St. Louis Rams: 23-7
Buffalo Bills (5-5) at New York Jets (5-5):
The Bills’ season was done before Fred Jackson was placed on IR. Now, it’s in the middle of the burial. Sadly – if you’re a Jets a fan – and hilariously – if you’re anyone else – the Jets are still on the same ground as Buffalo right now. Look for Buffalo to give the Jets a bit of a fight this time around, despite having to play in the Meadowlands, but they simply have nothing left on either side of the trench, and now their only playmaker is out for the season.
New York Jets: 31-14
Houston Texans (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7):
Houston fans have to be collectively yanking their hair out – or maybe it’s individually. Anybody know what Houstonites do in their spare time? – right now. They have what should be a cakewalk into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and Matt Schaub goes out for the season at the tail-end of a blowout on a simple QB sneak. Now … not so much. Thankfully, Matt Leinart has a week against the Jaguars to get his feet wet. He’ll struggle; Jacksonville’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but the Texans’ D and Arian Foster, plus the return of Andre Johnson, should be enough to keep the game in Houston control.
Houston Texans: 20-14
Chicago Bears (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (6-4):
Chicago didn’t get as lucky as Houston here, and it just missed out on reclaiming Orton, before facing against a Raiders’ defense that really, really likes playing inexperienced quarterbacks. The Bears were due for a bad game, but I don’t think they saw it playing out quite this way. Carson Palmer is finally meshing with the offense, Michael Bush is suiting up to be a perfect replacement for Darren McFadden, and the Bears’ hot streak is coming to a halt in the Black Hole.
Oakland Raiders: 24-17
Washington Redskins (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-6):
The Redskins are simply spiraling now. Mike Shanahan’s two-QB system is clearly not working out, and despite an effective defense, Washington just can’t seem to close out games. In a rivalry game that clearly mattered to them, the Skins weren’t able to pull out an overtime win. On the other hand, Seattle seems to improve every week, and as Sidney Rice and Marshawn Lynch both reach full health, the Seahawks may become some dangerous spoilers for the remainder of the season, including this week.
Seattle Seahawks: 27-17
New England Patriots (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6):
I’m getting really tired of having to deal with these schizophrenic birds, but I can actually see a legitimate reason for the Eagles’ win last week. Vince Young wasn’t great, but he also didn’t turn the ball over, and that’s been Philly’s biggest problem this year. The Eagles D gets a bad rap, but in weeks where it hasn’t had to compensate for three or four turnovers, it’s simply been shut down. Young doesn’t have the talents of Vick, but he isn’t consistently killing redzone drives week after week. New England’s defense, meanwhile, has finally begun showing signs of life and is officially no longer the worst D in the league. Wes Welker has gone into witness protection, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the rest of Tom Brady’s receiving corps have picked things up, and Philadelphia will struggle to hold the Pats down long enough to keep up.
New England Patriots: 30-17
Denver Broncos (5-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-6):
Tebow can do some amazing things at the end of games, but keep in mind, it’s his fault his team keeps being put in those positions in the first place. Denver’s turnaround is thanks entirely to a revamped defense, which has allowed 15, 24, 10 and 13 in its four wins in the previous five weeks. San Diego, meanwhile, has officially hit free-fall status. Ryan Mathews is now healthy but can’t hold onto the ball, Philip Rivers is having a simply awful year, and the defense can’t seem to hold anyone in check. That said, Denver is not a good enough team to win 5-of-6, and as bad as Rivers is, San Diego simply has too much talent to keep losing. Denver may be able to keep pace in this division, but for now, it’s taking a step back.
San Diego Chargers: 24-14
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6):
Anyone see Tyler Palko? Aside from being the real life equivalent of what would happen if Keanu Reeves and his replacements really did play, he’s not good. Not bad, but he’s not winning any games against any decent teams. Fortunately, the Chiefs managed to claim Orton off waivers and, as long as the AFC West keeps doing what it’s doing (losing) – Kansas City should be able to get back into the race as soon as next week. Of course, the Steelers have to love this. What suddenly looked like a tough road trip now boils down to one question: Can they shut down Dwayne Bowe? That’ll be a yes.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-14
New York Giants (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-3):
The Giants don’t seem to be getting worse. They’re just losing every game they’re supposed to lose, which may still cost them a playoff slot. The run game has gone from sluggish to straight anemic in recent weeks, but Eli Manning is still playing lights-out. The defense has been solid, not spectacular, though, and that could cost them against New Orleans. The Saints simply seem to be on fire, with a fully healthy receiving corps and a stable of running backs who each seem to know when it’s their turn to chip in. Then of course, you have Drew Brees, who may shatter Dan Marino’s yardage record. The Saints can lose, but right now, they’re too hot to lose at home.
New Orleans Saints: 31-27
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