Week 16 NFL Predictions

Well, it finally happened. And by “it,” I apparently mean a lot of things. The Colts won, the Packers lost and Tebowmania hit a br(ady)ick wall. Indianapolis actually put together a solid game – aided by the Titans laying an absolute egg – with Dan Orlovsky winning his first game in 18 starts … that’s not a typo, nor is it a first. (See Steve Spurrier, 1976. I love bringing his professional career up.) As for the Packers, I didn’t see the game, but from what I hear, Aaron Rodgers didn’t have a bad game; all of his receivers did, though, dropping passes left and right. The Chiefs didn’t lay out a blueprint to beat the Packers, but they did show that adding an element of surprise (Kyle Orton’s first start) with a lot of luck (Greg Jennings out and the rest of the receivers not showing up), Green Bay really is beatable. As for Tebow, I’m not going to keep harping on this point, but the trend continues. If Denver’s defense holds – allows less than 24 points – it wins. If not, it loses. And with those storylines safely shattered, a few new ones take place: Chicago is winless since Jay Cutler went down, Arizona and Seattle are both in the midst of improbable potential wildcard runs, and Philadelphia is suddenly back in contention. As for whether any of those teams will actually make the postseason? Not happening, thanks to this week alone.

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 125-65

Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13):

I’m still in a little bit of disbelief over the Colts getting their first win. Tennessee should have had a cakewalk victory en route to its final two games of the season and a possible postseason berth. Instead, the Titans managed to underperform at the worst possible moment, likely becoming the only team to lose to a 1-15 team. That has to be embarrassing. It will stop there, though. Houston is too good to slip up against the Colts, even without several key players.

Houston Texans: 35-10

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7):

Jacksonville has been getting worse lately, but the Jaguars were simply embarrassed in Atlanta last Thursday. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be the only performer on either side of the ball for the Jags, and the coaching turmoil clearly isn’t helping. As for the Titans, until last week, they seemed like a team that was coming together just in time to make a decent run at the playoffs. Now, they’re a team that’s out of contention for the division and will need an incredible amount of help to make the postseason, with only Jake Locker’s development to look forward to. Granted, that’s a huge upside, because he has looked amazing late game in the last two weeks, and he’ll probably do enough to shred the Jaguars’ defense this week, but it probably won’t be enough to satisfy Titan fans who have to wait till next season.

Tennessee Titans: 31-20

San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (9-5):

It’s December, so what’s that mean? A Chargers run of course. The Bolts have won three straight and somehow are still in contention for the division – as is everyone else in the AFC West. Philip Rivers is playing lights out and a healthy Ryan Mathews is shredding opponents right now. On the flip side, Detroit seems to be coming back together, holding off a Minnesota run two weeks ago and making yet another improbable comeback in Oakland on Sunday. There are still some holes in the team, like a secondary that seems to have gaping wounds on any given play, and a running back corps that can’t seem to stay healthy. Fortunately for Detroit, a strong defensive front line and the Stafford-Johnson combo should be enough to hold off the Chargers run this week.

Detroit Lions: 24-21

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9):

Buffalo continues to fight in games, but the Bills just can’t seem to put it together enough to stop their skid. Denver, meanwhile, seems to win every game it’s supposed to, even if the majority are fourth-quarter comebacks, and this is definitely a game the Broncos are supposed to win. I won’t even try to do a comparison analysis between the two teams, because Tebow just doesn’t feel like playing consistently, but suffice it to say he probably won’t need a comeback this week.

Denver Broncos: 20-10

Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6):

Huge playoff implications here. The Bengals almost have to win out and get help, while the Cardinals have to win out and start believing in miracles, so needless to say, loser is out of the talk. Arizona has won 6-of-7, including one over mighty San Francisco, while the Bengals look like one of the best young teams in the NFL and only seem to be getting better. Like I said last week, the Cardinals are making their run in spite of almost no big-name players, but Cincinnati is a fundamentally sound team with five of its losses coming against teams who have already locked up playoff spots. Bengals take this one.

Cincinnati Bengals: 21-17

Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8):

The Raiders and Chiefs are in the exact same position as the Cardinals and Bengals, only this one is interdivisional, and makes the race all the more thrilling. Oakland shelled out a fortune to keep up its playoff chances this year, but Carson Palmer hasn’t been able to do enough to keep the Raiders on pace. The Chiefs faced a similar problem but were only able to debut a new quarterback last week. Orton performed well, but it may be too late to make a run. The Raiders are still missing Darren McFadden, who’s critical to their success, but they’re still a better team than a coach-less Chiefs who are still missing many key players.

Oakland Raiders: 24-20

Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3):

Despite a disappointing season, the Dolphins seem to have found a key future leader in Reggie Bush, who only needs a few dozen more yards to post his first 1,000-yard season. Unfortunately, that’s not going to be enough for the Dolphins to march in Foxborough and stop the Patriots at home. New England needs to win out to ensure home-field advantage for the playoffs, something the Patriots have been good at doing under Belichick and Brady.

New England Patriots: 31-23

New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6):

If you live in New York, you’ve gotta love this showdown. Neither team even close to the playoffs, but both needing to win to stay in contention. And of course, the unbridled hatred between the two teams. The Giants have been a phenomenal fourth-quarter team, but as last week showed, if things don’t go their way – two called-back touchdowns, a drop by Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks (sorry, couldn’t see the number) behind the Redskins secondary – they simply can’t pull off the win. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a humiliating loss to Philadelphia despite having what seems to be all the key parts necessary for another postseason run. The Jets are too good to get to lose twice in a row to a division that seems just short of worthless this year.

New York Jets: 31-28

St. Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4):

All right, we figured out that Big Ben is, in fact, a mortal, and that Pittsburgh is a completely different team when he’s not on. Of course, if he doesn’t make as many mistakes as he did against San Francisco, that game is much closer. Unfortunately for St. Louis, there are really only two questions that matter: 1) Will Stephen Jackson finally find the end zone and 2) Will they lose by 30 or by 10?

Pittsburgh Steelers: 34-10

Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9):

The Vikings simply get worse every week, while the Skins, thanks to quarterback stability, seem to have begun getting their season back on track, if way too late. Fortunately for them, the Vikings’ secondary may be the worst part of a very bad team and a healthy Santana Moss and a running back (Roy Helu) who set the franchise record for receptions in a game earlier this year mean the Skins should be able to run away with this game.

Washington Redskins: 27-14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9):

This game was ugly when Carolina visited Tampa a few weeks ago. Add a much-improved Panthers team, a much worse Bucs team and home-field advantage for Carolina, and this one gets downright embarrassing.

Carolina Panthers: 37-10

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4):

All of Baltimore’s losses have come against teams without winning records. Granted, the last was against a surging Chargers team, the Ravens have been most disappointing when least expected. However, Cleveland’s sliding and a late collapse against Arizona doesn’t help matters. The Ravens may slip up occasionally, but they’re not going to do it twice in a row, especially in a divisional matchup.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-10

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6):

Somehow, all the pieces are coming together for Philadelphia. Should the Eagles win out, the Cowboys lose out and the Giants win today, the Eagles make the playoffs. There’s just one slight hitch: This isn’t the same Dallas team from previous years. The Cowboys aren’t blowing leads late – they got that out of their systems early – and despite losing DeMarco Murray for the season, the Cowboys have put together an incredibly efficient offense and a defense that’s effective enough to hold opponents at bay. Philadelphia has been doing much the same, but the Cowboys haven’t forgotten about their 34-7 beat down in Philadelphia, and they’ll be doing their best to ensure the Eagles pay for that.

Dallas Cowboys: 24-17

San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (7-7):

The Seahawks have been on an incredible run lately, working their way back to a .500 record, thanks mostly to the running of Marshawn Lynch. Problem is, nobody runs on the 49ers. San Fran has gone 15 straight games without allowing a rushing touchdown, tied for the longest such streak since the merger in 1970. In addition, Seattle’s defense thrives on turnovers, something that the Niners ensure they don’t commit. The Seahawks will give Alex Smith trouble, and Lynch will snap the Niners streak on defense, but San Francisco still has enough to play for to walk away with this one.

San Francisco 49ers: 23-14

Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1):

Chicago finally got smart and benched Caleb Hanie. Hanie hasn’t just been bad; he’s been absolutely horrible. The Bears have slid straight out of playoff contention on his inept play, and it’s one of Lovie Smith’s biggest coaching errors that he hasn’t yet benched Hanie. Luke McCown will be replacing Hanie, which should give the Bears a better shot at winning, but Chicago without Jay Cutler or Matt Forte simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match Green Bay at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay Packers: 31-17

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3):

The Saints are a game away from winning the division, while the Falcons are a game away from clinching a wildcard spot. New Orleans stole a win from the Falcons in Atlanta, and it wound up being the critical game in this division race. Unfortunately for Atlanta, New Orleans is simply not making mistakes right now. The Falcons aren’t playing badly right now, but their run game has dropped off considerably in recent weeks, and it’s critical for Atlanta if the Falcons hope to keep up with the Saints this week. Unfortunately for Atlanta, it simply won’t happen.

New Orleans Saints: 31-23

Week 15 NFL Predictions

I love the last few weeks of the regular season. The good teams do what they need to do to get into the playoffs, the bad teams just keep trying to play spoiler, and of course the really bad teams (or just confused ones) fire their head coach because, despite his success, they just really don’t like him. That’s OK, Kansas City, mediocrity is obviously preferable to your GM and HC playing nice. That’s why the last time you won a playoff game was with another team’s aging scraps (Joe Montana).

In a surprising twist on the Tebow beat, the Broncos came back from 10 down with less than 2 minutes remaining to beat the hapless Chicago Bears. Of course, Tim Tebow should again get all the credit, despite the fact that the Broncos were scoreless for 58 minutes, the Bears only put up 10, Marion Barber stepped out of bounds with 56 seconds remaining, rather than dropping to the grass and later fumbled the ball in field-goal range in overtime, and Matt Prater calmly booted two 50-yarders – including an absolutely absurd 59-yarder as time expired – but clearly, this is all a product of Tim Tebow’s phenomenal skills as a quarterback. But I digress.

I saw a SportsCenter question earlier today asking which was more likely: the Packers going 16-0 or the Colts going 0-16? The answer? Both are happening, so long as Mike McCarthy doesn’t do the foolish thing and bench his starters against Detroit in Week 17. Congratulations to Green Bay, and to Indy, welcome to the club. Population: 3, but we’re working on that. With that, here are Week 15’s picks:

Last Week: 11-4

Total: 115-59

Jacksonville (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5):

You know, I specifically said last week that if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were to play the Colts now, the Colts would win a game this season … and then I pick the Bucs over Jacksonville. Someone tell me why I would do this? Because I’m not really sure. But great job, Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn’t just have a career day, with an incredible four touchdowns and over 100 total yards. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s not the kind of team that just hands the ball off to the defense multiples times inside their own 10. Jacksonville’s defense is stout, but not enough to stop the (growing) number of weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal, and if Atlanta holds MJD in check, the Jaguars simply have nothing.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-17

Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):

Time for everybody in Dallas to get their hard hats out again, because this thing’s about to collapse yet again. And Dallas fans, don’t you dare blame this on Dan Bailey. Should he have made that field goal against Arizona? Yes, and he did. Not his fault his coach iced him and he shockingly missed the second of two kicks that have a less than 50-50 shot of going in. And Jason Pierre-Paul simply played lights out last week, right down to blocking that final kick. DeMarco Murray going down and weak defensive play put the Cowboys in this potentially devastating position, not Bailey or – for once – Tony Romo. Thankfully, like I said, the Buccaneers are very, very bad. This is a game Tampa Bay really needs to win if Raheem Morris wants to keep his job, because the Bucs simply have no excuse for their lack of performance this year. However, they just don’t seem to have it together enough to stop a team that’s also viewing this as a must-win game.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-20

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13):

Two things: 1) Tennessee was a New Orleans extra point – the Saints went for two on their final TD – from playing in its fourth-straight 23-17 games. I’m not Elias, but I’m sure that has to be some kind of record, considering the last time three straight happened was like 60 years ago. 2) There are what some to be very credible reports of the Saints’ sideline blowing a whistle during the Titans’ final, and ultimately futile, drive. If those reports turn out to be true, New Orleans could take a hit bigger than what Spygate did to New England. Sean Payton and Drew Brees are considered class individuals, and for either of them to allow an individual on their team to do something like trying to trick the Titans’ offense into a mistake is despicable. Oh, right, the score for this one:

Tennessee Titans: 27-13

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6):

I said earlier in the year that good teams tend to respond to blowout losses with great performances of their own. The Raiders looked awful in their game against Green Bay, but it was one no one expected them to win, so in terms of standings, it doesn’t really matter (Pride is another matter, though. Seriously, Oakland, ew.) The good thing is, the Raiders match up incredibly well with the Lions. Their porous run defense shouldn’t be much of a factor with the Lions anemic run game, especially if Kevin Smith misses this week. Their pass defense isn’t great, but it should be enough to slow down Detroit if the Lions’ only option is through the air. On the other side of the ball, Denarius Moore should be back, giving Carson Palmer a full list of targets again. The Lions’ D, bipolar at the best of time, will have to be nearly flawless for a full 60 minutes, something it hasn’t done since Week 8 at Denver, and won’t be able to do now.

Oakland Raiders: 24-13

Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8):

The firing of Tony Sparano wasn’t a well-timed move, but it was necessary for Miami to begin searching for its next coach and to go ahead and become recovering from the past four years. The Dolphins laid an egg against the Eagles, and the firing could damage an already flawed team. Buffalo, meanwhile, seems to have recovered from its steady stream of season-ending injuries enough to make this season meaningful, if too late for a playoff push. Timing should be to thank for Buffalo’s first win in seven games.

Buffalo Bills: 28-20

Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6):

At first glance, Chicago still seems in prime position to hold on for a playoff spot, but that’s assuming you don’t realize just how bad Caleb Hanie is. I know the Denver defense has been good lately, but Marion Barber put up 140 total yards, and Chicago still scored only 10 points. The Seahawks, meanwhile, under the resurgence of Marshawn Lynch, are the guys I love for a dark-horse contender. Seattle has to win out, but right now, only two games behind Atlanta and Detroit (both of whom have to play their respective division leaders, New Orleans and Green Bay, yet) and playing as well as either, it has a good shot. It has to start this week, though, but given how aimless Chicago’s offense has been, unless Devin Hester returns a couple kicks for TD, Chicago won’t be able to limit Lynch enough to keep it close.

Seattle Seahawks: 17-7

Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8):

I think we can safely say that Green Bay has the perfect record if it wants it (whether that will continue through the playoffs is another question entirely), but after the Greg Jennings scare, McCarthy might be understandably worried about risking his players. Kansas City, meanwhile, should be settling nicely into its “turmoil” stage. I understand that GM Scott Pioli and Todd Haley weren’t getting along, but this is a classic instance of where individuals need to put personal feelings aside for the greater good. In the last two years, the Chiefs have looked better than they have in nearly two decades. You can claim that other teams have overcome injury, and so should the Chiefs, but Buffalo and Jacksonville aside – and seriously, look at those records – I really don’t see another roster that comes close to Kansas City. The Chiefs, at some point in the season, have lost an all-star safety, quarterback and running back for the season, as well as a starting linebacker, two wide receivers and a tight end. Teams just don’t recover from that. Regardless, it won’t affect this week’s outcome.

Green Bay Packers: 34-13

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-11):

Let’s be clear here, guys. Cincinnati is the exact same team it was six weeks. It’s just faced a devastatingly good list of opponents, and this roster is too young to deal with that, especially since this gauntlet came around the time a lot of rookies tend to hit their wall. This is still a decent team with an outside shot of making the playoffs, and now it plays a St. Louis team that is unexplainably bad, with really only one decent weapon (Stephen Jackson). After this week, Cincinnati closes out the season with a home-stand against the Cardinals and a Ravens squad that will likely be resting a lot of its players. Don’t write these guys off just yet.

Cincinnati Bengals: 31-17

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11):

Let’s get this straight: New Orleans is not Detroit. When the Vikings fall behind by 27 points, they’re not going to come back this time, because there is absolutely no way that the Saints’ D gives up that many points to a completely horrid offense that can’t decide which quarterback it wants to use right now.

New Orleans Saints: 38-13

Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6):

I’m so glad Shanahan has decided to leave Grossman in. It makes Redskins games much more entertaining. For instance, what should’ve been a blowout loss to New England was actually entertaining, because Washington had chances to score, and took full advantage. That said, the Giants are in the same boat as the Bengals. Nobody expected them to fare particularly well over the past few weeks, yet when they match those expectations, critics lambast them for losing. It wasn’t just Dallas choking last week, though. Eli Manning is a very, very good quarterback right now, and that defense can step up when needed to. New York owns the driver’s seat of the NFC East, and don’t expect it to relinquish it until at least Week 17.

New York Giants: 24-17

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3):

Carolina defense – exposed. That’s what happens when they go back up against good teams. Cam Newton, of course, just produces at a consistently incredible level, but like all rookies, he is going to make mistakes. The four turnovers against Atlanta in the second half were a bit extreme – seriously, if he just sits down, Carolina probably wins that game – but he will smooth out, and once Carolina can find a defense, it will be a contender for years to come. Houston, as improbable as it seems, survived its gauntlet stretch without either of its two starting quarterbacks or its star wide receiver and defensive end, but not only did the Texans survive, they thrived as owners of the league’s best defense and a seven-game win streak that shows no signs of ending in the regular season.

Houston Texans: 31-20

New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5):

Finally … finally, Denver faces a somewhat well-rounded team. (Let’s be honest, New England’s defense is horrible, but its offense phenomenal, so that makes up for it.) The Broncos biggest issue will be that the Patriots defense is just so bad. I don’t think anyone will argue that Tebow is truly an awful quarterback in the first three quarters, which means that the Patriots, notorious for not being able to actually stop a pass play at any point during the play, don’t even really have to try to hold him in check. Tom Brady, meanwhile, will give the Broncos their biggest defensive test since Week 8 against Detroit, a test they resoundingly failed, by the way. Denver should make this an entertaining game, but the game is going to get out reach far too quickly for any last-second Tebow-rics (Tebow … heroics … get it? No? I’ll stop.)

New England Patriots: 31-17

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8):

I think I mentioned earlier that the Jets are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, thanks in large part to Rex Ryan not running his mouth every other day. It suits New York, because no one seems to be taking a Jets team that can easily go at least 10-6 seriously. Unfortunately, it seems like the Eagles only play best when completely ignored, which is what they’re doing right now. The defense worked together to shut down a good Miami team, and Michael Vick actually managed to go largely mistake free. Philadelphia should be able to do enough in these last three weeks to make the remaining regular season interesting and at least lock down Andy Reid’s job for next season.

Philadelphia Eagles: 21-16

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7):

Cleveland just really isn’t a good team right now. They’re not horrendously bad, like Indianapolis or Tampa Bay, but they also can’t do anything more than just keep from getting blown out, which actually makes the Browns more boring. Arizona, meanwhile, is in the same position as Seattle, and may actually have a better setup. The Cardinals close out with two home games – one a final-week showdown with the Seahawks in what could become very interesting – and a road trip to Cincinnati. What makes this Cardinals team so interesting is that, Larry Fitzgerald aside, it really has no household names to explain why this turnaround (5 of their last 6) is happening. Even better, because there’s not a particular player opponents can gameplan for, it’s hard to shut down either side of the ball. Arizona will probably slip next week in Cincinnati, but for this week, at least, it should keep things interesting.

Arizona Cardinals: 17-10

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7):

By every right, Baltimore should win this game. The Chargers’ offense puts up turnovers as fast it puts up yards, and the defense, statistically, is sound but – thanks to turnovers again – tends to give up lots and lots of points. For the Ravens, Ray Rice is unstoppable, the receiving corps is so talented that, despite Joe Flacco’s inconsistency, at least one receiver is making plays week to week, and the defense has shown its ready for life after Ray (Lewis). There’s just one little problem: It’s December. Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in history in this month, and that shouldn’t change this week. In fact, the pressure and the nature of the Chargers’ opponent should mean Rivers is playing at his highest level.

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3):

It’s about time Monday Night Football got a game right, and of course it’ll be the one I miss. That aside, this could be one of the best games of the regular season, especially since it seems the Harbaughs will be working together to take down the Steelers … seriously, though, is that in any way ethical, John Harbaugh? Either way, with great defenses on either side, a nearly unstoppable quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) on one side and a nearly unstoppable running back (Frank Gore) on the other, the two teams couldn’t be much more unevenly matched. The deciding factor has to go to the home team, though. San Francisco hasn’t been relevant since 2002, and this week will be fighting for its right to hold onto a first-round bye. If that doesn’t drive these Niners fans to the game in droves, nothing will.

San Francisco 49ers: 20-17

Week 14 NFL Predictions

Well finals week means a belated blog, but let’s be honest: If you needed my help picking Pittsburgh over Cleveland, then you clearly aren’t watching enough football this year. The solution? Watch more. Buffalo Wild Wings plays every game every week, and I strongly suggest camping out there for a few hours.

In other news, Green Bay seems to have survived its last major scare of the season, while the 49ers, who a few weeks ago seemed locks for at least the No. 2 seed, if not overtaking the Packers at one, now have to watch their backs as the incredibly hot Saints are looking about as perfect as a football team can lately. Tim Tebow finally deserves the credit he’s been getting for weeks, with a thrilling shootout in Minnesota (which most of the West Coast apparently didn’t get to see). The Texans don’t seem to remember how to lose – matching their franchise-best win total in only Week 13 – while the Bears are embracing the we-need-a-QB argument to the fullest expense. Seriously, that was an ugly game, Chicago. Most of the divisions seem to have settled down somewhat, with the exception of the turbulent AFC West and NFC East, but hopefully this week will shed some light on who’s going to take them. With that, here’s this week’s picks:

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 104-54

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5):

I know the Packers are undefeated, and I’ve never liked hearing people say that some other, non-undefeated team is the hottest team in the same league, but I really think that applies here. Drew Brees is making an all-out assault on the record books right now – he has 4,000 yards through 12 games. That’s beyond ridiculous – and the defense is back to its opportunistic, 2009 ways. New Orleans didn’t blow out Detroit, but it did make a good team with a strong chance at making the playoffs look positively pedestrian. The Titans, for their part, though, aren’t too bad either. They held off a suddenly scrappy Bills team in Buffalo, and Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing through the last four games. As well as the Titans seem to be playing right now, though, they just have no way to stop Brees this week.

New Orleans Saints: 27-21

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5):

The Lions played one of their more consistent games against New Orleans last week. Unfortunately for them, they were just consistently worse than the Saints all game long. However, the Lions don’t have to be great to back into the postseason. The Falcons look guaranteed to lock up a wildcard spot, but the Lions’ competition for the remaining slot are QB-less Chicago, collapsing New York, and a way-behind, but still-surging Seattle squad, which means all Detroit has to do is beat the teams it’s supposed to beat. And Minnesota is one of those teams. Adrian Peterson aside, this team has officially hit zero redeemable value. Detroit needs to use this time to recover before hitting the final, incredibly difficult three games of its schedule.

Detroit Lions: 24-13

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5):

I honestly don’t know how to pick this Houston team. By all rights, it should be losing every game, yet it doesn’t. The Texans beat a good Falcons team after losing both Schaub and now Johnson (again) last week. Now they face a solid Bengals team that has the exact opposite issue from the ones the Texans face – perfectly healthy but not winning – in Cincinnati. So naturally, Houston’s going to win this game.

Houston Texans: 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8):

You know what’s funny? Asante Samuel said earlier this year that the Philly front office was playing “fantasy football” rather than real football. I dismissed that statement and chalked it up to a disgruntled player who took being put on the trading block personally. Looking back on it now, seems like Samuel diagnosed the Eagles’ problems before the Eagles knew they had problems. And of course, now they’re playing the Dolphins at the worst possible time. Philly might shut down Reggie Bush this week – he’s due for a bad game – but, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, Miami has developed too many weapons to be slowed down by the struggling Eagles’ D.

Miami Dolphins: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5):

It’s weird. The Jets were essentially erased from the playoff picture after a Week 11 loss to the Broncos, and now they’re actually tied for a playoff spot right now. And yet … no Rex Ryan comments? What is the world coming to? Meanwhile, Kansas City just doesn’t know when to give up. Thanks to a weird upset in the Windy City, the Chiefs aren’t completely eliminated from the AFC West picture, but after this week, they should be. KC just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently compete with anyone, and as long as New York can keep its offense producing for a full 60 minutes, the Jets should have this one in hand.

New York Jets: 31-14

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8):

Thanks to a timely collapse by the Giants and Lions and the loss of Jay Cutler by the Bears, the Falcons have virtually locked up a wildcard slot in the NFC. Matt Ryan and Roddy White seem to have hit their stride, and Michael Turner continues to quietly be one of the most productive backs in the league. Carolina’s defense seems much improved in the last two weeks, but this was against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay – who really may be just as bad as the Colts right now. Newton singlehandedly dominated the Bucs last week, but Atlanta’s defense is a lot more stout and won’t be so easy to push around.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8):

I’m glad Mike Shanahan finally came to his senses and decided to start the quarterback that, you know, moves the ball, but it’s too little too late. The Skins’ D has sunk to its worst level in years, and New England’s defense has improved to the point where it can actually be called a defense now. Tom Brady has his rhythm back after a few-game slump, Deion Branch is fully healthy and Rob Gronkowski is simply putting on a show. The Patriots should be able to just about lock up a playoff spot this week.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9):

This game may actually have zero redeemable value. I would say don’t watch this, but I’m pretty sure it’s been blacked out. Tampa Bay has been truly awful the past few weeks, and Jacksonville not only has a completely inept offense; it now has no coach. It should be just what the Buccaneers need to start righting the ship (see what I did there?).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20-17

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3):

Well the Cotls have … meh, I’m not gonna fake this. I wonder if Ray Rice can go for 200?

Baltimore Ravens: 37-13

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5):

Four weeks ago, this game looked completely different. The Broncos and Tim Tebow seemed like a passing phase, while Jay Cutler was just starting to light defenses up. Then we got to see just how bad Caleb Hanie is, and not only has the Broncos’ D been surprisingly efficient – giving up more than 20 points only once in its last six wins – but Tebow actually showed off a little bit last week. Chicago’s defense will keep this thing close, but Denver – I can’t believe I’m gonna say this – is too well-rounded to take out at home.

Denver Broncos: 23-15

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)

I know it’s just the St. Louis Rams, but the 49ers did something impressive with their 26-0 win last week. Thanks to the lack of talent disparity in the NFL and the odds of a defense screwing up at least one play out of 60-80 during a game, it’s incredibly hard to shut out an opponent, especially in a blowout. That the Niners did it, and without Patrick Willis for the whole game, is amazing and a pretty nice bounce back from that loss to the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are no slouches themselves, right now. Winners of 4-of-5, they, along with the Seahawks’ performance in the last five weeks have helped to make the West the hottest division in the NFC. Of course, Arizona’s only loss in the last five weeks? Against San Francisco. Kevin Kolb is back and seems to be playing much better, while a much-improved defense should help slow down Frank Gore and a resurgent Alex Smith, but it won’t be enough to stop the Niners from further extending their division lead.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0):

All year long, Oakland has been gashed by the run. All year long, Green Bay hasn’t touched the run. One of these has to give this week. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great, but it will be one of the best Rodgers has faced to this point, and he’ll need to be either perfect or be able to seriously manage the run game this week. On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer is officially playing like an NFL starter now – even getting trounced in Miami, he managed to almost make a game of it – and Green Bay’s pass defense leaves a lot on the table. Fortunately for the Pack, Darren McFadden looks to be out for one more week, and it’s going to be cold this week at Lambeau, giving Green Bay all the edge it needs.

Green Bay Packers: 31-20

Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7):

Surely we can’t attribute the Chargers’ failings to the fact that the offense hasn’t been healthy all year long. I know Ryan Mathews was healthy enough for the first time to make a stout run D just look silly and Malcolm Floyd is simply fully healthy for the first time all year, but that cannot excuse Philip Rivers horrendous play during crucial moments of past games. That said, based on how San Diego simply ripped into Jacksonville last week, hopes have to be pretty high for San Diego, which comes close to controlling its own destiny. It has to start with a win this week against the still-reeling-but-scrappy Bills. C.J. Spiller is making a nice impact, and Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have picked himself back up, but it’s not going to be enough to stop San Diego at home.

San Diego Chargers: 31-23

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5):

Was the Arizona game the point where Dallas fans slap their foreheads and say, “Here we go again”? Because that was timed beautifully. First December game this year, and Dallas does its part by providing a skunk of a game, and it can’t even be blamed on Tony Romo this time. Of course, the Giants won’t make the Cowboys’ collapse easy, in the midst of their own serious breakdown. New York played incredibly well against Green Bay last week, but that kind of heart-wrenching, last-second loss is going to take a serious emotional toll on an already suffering team, which it doesn’t need, heading into a primetime showdown with one of its biggest rivals. Dallas should be able to widen the gap just a bit in the race for the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys: 23-17

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7):

As long as these two teams have been in the same division (nine years now), they have never been relevant at the same time. Why would you subject us to this game on primetime, ESPN? Why, why, why? Two words: Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-10

Week 13 NFL Predictions

And the gap gets just a little bit wider. San Francisco, which seems to be the only serious contender to the still-undefeated Packers, went down in the Har-Bowl (cheesy, but I heard it somewhere, and I love it) on Thanksgiving night. Given how well Aaron Rodgers is still playing, it’s hard to imagine anyone can narrow that gap again, although Drew Brees and Tom Brady are back to trying their best to do so. Houston, meanwhile, leads the AFC, yet can’t seem to catch a lucky break, losing its second-string QB for the season with a broken collarbone this week. Of course, this team is nothing if not resilient. Andre Johnson and Arian Foster have both missed significant playing time, yet the team still averages around 25 points per game, and the Texans’ defense only became the league’s best after Mario Williams went down. Meanwhile, farther west, the Broncos continue to win, and their defense continue to get absolutely zero credit for its phenomenal turnaround, thanks to Tebowmania. The Chargers and the Eagles have reached free fall, and Jacksonville decided it wanted to join them. Finally, the gaps in the divisional races seem to keep widening, and it looks like we’re only a few days away from the first team (San Francisco) locking up its division title. With all that info to process, here are Week 13’s picks:

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 94-48

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7):

I think I said it last week, but I like Vince Young for this team. He’s a less dynamic Michael Vick, but that’s a great thing, because it should be the defense that gets the spotlight on this team, and since it’s forced to simply play goalkeeper after Vick’s pick obsession kicks in, it doesn’t have the chance to because it simply gets worn down. New England was an exception to this. Both Brady and Wes Welker had their best games in weeks and it was all Young could do to simply keep up statistically, let alone on the scoreboard. That said, however, Philly’s play is still too erratic on offense to convince me to get back on board. Marshawn Lynch has a very favorable matchup against the Eagles D, and this game may just coe down to which quarterback doesn’t throw interceptions. And I think that will be Seattle’s Charlie Whitehurst.

Seattle Seahawks: 24-20

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6):

If Tennessee could get consistent play from Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson, it could easily be a contender in the AFC. Unfortunately for the Titans, the two seem to simultaneously click about once a month, which is what they did last week. CJ seems to be making men miss again, but he’ll need to do this at least two weeks in a row to convince me he’s back. Buffalo, meanwhile, showed more fight last week than it had the last month combined. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked much better and the team seemed to be able to absorb yet another major loss in Fred Jackson. The team seems to be willing to fight with or without its missing key players, and that’s a dangerous look against a team as inconsistent as Tennessee.

Buffalo Bills: 23-17

Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3):

The loss to Kevin Smith hurt (and Jahvid Best going on IR from a concussion is no picnic either), but that’s not the sole reason the Lions were shut out most of the game. Jeff Hanson was off his usual kicking prowess, and Matt Stafford was, well, Matt Stafford. Detroit, unfortunately (for them and me), will have to accept what they get out of him, though, because he’s just as likely to turn around and eat up the Saints’ defense this week. New Orleans, meanwhile, has hit its stride. Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas are rolling, Drew Brees could easily throw for 5,500, and the defense is back to Super Bowl form. It’s hard to imagine any team stopping the Saints for the rest of the year, and the inconsistency-plagued Lions are no exception.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (4-7) at Chicago Bears (7-4):

And now we’re set up for a battle of the QB-less in Chicago this week. It’s sad how sporadic the Chiefs have been this season, initially counted out, then contenders for the division title after a four-game win streak and now all but eliminated after another three-game losing streak. The Bears, however, only recently passed the mantle of NFC’s hottest team to New Orleans after Jay Cutler broke his hand (of course, the Chiefs losing Matt Cassel isn’t exactly a brush on the shoulder). Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Chicago wins games on special teams and defense and on the back of Matt Forte. Kansas City has … Kyle Orton, who may be valuable in the coming weeks, but instinct says he’s not quite ready to be on the wrong side of the Bears defense.

Chicago Bears: 24-14

Oakland Raiders (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-8):

Carson Palmer is back, Darren McFadden is almost there, and the Raiders are doing Al Davis’ memory proud. The loss of Cutler helped, but the Raiders still managed to shut down Matt Forte and the rest of that offense for much of the game, and actually outdueled the Bears on special teams. If you’re asking why that matters, any time a kicker kicks six field goals, and Devin Hester doesn’t have the longest play of the game, it matters. The Dolphins on the other hand can only look forward to playing spoiler from this point on, but they play that role remarkably well right now, giving Dallas a scare into the final minute. Miami holds a key advantage in this game, thanks to Reggie Bush’s resurgence and a Raiders’ D that continues to struggle against the run. Look for Miami to get to play spoiler at least one more time this year.

Miami Dolphins: 17-13

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-9):

Minnesota does two things well: run the ball and stop the run. Denver does both as well. One slight fix for Minnesota: It’s never seen the likes of Denver’s ground attack. That, coupled with the likelihood of Adrian Peterson not playing at full capacity (if he plays at all, which I don’t think is likely), means Minnesota is hard-pressed to find any advantages against a much-improved Denver defense. Look for the Broncos to finish the incredible divisional turnaround this week.

Denver Broncos: 18-14

Indianapolis Colts (0-11) at New England Patriots (8-3):

Not even gonna waste my breath.

New England Patriots: 40-14

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3):

Anything I write will be a repeat of what I wrote for these two teams’ matchup a few weeks ago. Two solid teams, vying for second in the AFC North and at least one wild-card spot. Again, though, Pittsburgh has the advantage in Big Ben and a defense that, while aging, still have the maturity advantage that goes a long way in these defensive struggles. Pittsburgh will complete the series sweep this year, but this could be the last time anyone says that for a long time.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-13

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7):

From a talent and performance perspective, at least in this moment, Carolina runs away with this game. However, both teams have been finding ways to lose throughout the year, and quite frankly, I think Carolina’s methods have been much more impressive. Cam Newton will probably have the best statistical day he’s had in weeks, but it won’t be enough to stop the Buccaneers from pulling out of their tailspin, for one week at least. LeGarrette Blount is back to his old hurdle-the-cornerback-with-ease self, and eventually the rest of that team will have to pull itself together.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-23

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington Redskins (4-7):

I wish Shanahan would make up his mind about his quarterbacks. This QB shuffle makes it incredibly hard to predict the team’s performance, though I think it’s clear that Grossman is the better QB (though I don’t think that was ever a question, and I don’t know why Shanahan tried to answer it). Unfortunately for Grossman, the Jets’ problems stem almost entirely from the offensive side of the ball, leaving him to face a very tough, very motivated defense this week. I’m still not sold on the Jets’ offensive capabilities, and I don’t think we’ll see anything here to push me one way or the other, but New York should be able to do enough to walk out with an ugly win.

New York Jets: 17-13

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Houston Texans (8-3):

Atlanta’s finally pulling together, just as it seems that Houston is about to hit a tailspin. I think Houston can pull out of this, and if nothing else, it has a fairly easy path to locking up its division, but the Falcons should be able to steal a win in Reliant it otherwise shouldn’t be able to have earned.

Atlanta Falcons: 24-17

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7):

Again, I have plenty of things to say about this game, but so far Baltimore has managed to defy logic by losing to shoddy opponents after a big win every single time this year. Look for this week to be no different, as a newly motivated Peyton Hillis runs roughshod over the Ravens’ D.

Cleveland Browns: 16-13

Green Bay Packers (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5):

This looks to be the final major test for the Packers to go 16-0. Under ordinary circumstances, Green Bay should incredibly wary of New York right now, but these aren’t normal circumstances. Tom Coughlin is once again under fire for his job, and the players are now fielding accusations of simply giving up against New Orleans – an accusation they really didn’t bother trying to dispel on the field. The Giants will probably come out this week playing for everything – a loss drops them to possibly three behind the Cowboys with four to play – but Rodgers simply has too many weapons. Eli Manning and Co. will keep it close for most of the game, but the Giants just don’t have enough motivation/skill/whatever they need to slow down the Pack.

Green Bay Packers: 37-28

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7):

Funny how the Cowboys were discounted as busts at the beginning of the year, yet now they could easily back their way into a playoff spot. They won’t do that, though, because of games like this one. The Cardinals have won four games, but that’s because they’re in the NFC West. Dallas has too many weapons for Arizona to reasonably stop them, and it can’t rely on Beanie Wells to repeat his performance last week, since that seems to just be a St. Louis anomaly (see DeMarco Murray). Dallas should be able to move one game from locking up its division this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 24-16

St. Louis Rams (2-9) at San Francisco 49ers (9-2):

A team that’s reeling for the second time this year with a defense that’s more porous than the an acne-ridden teenager meets a team that will be furious after its loss in Baltimore, fueled by a power back and a powerful defense. This won’t be pretty, St. Louis.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-13

San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8):

I want to pick against the reeling Chargers. I really, really do, but they keep getting matchups like this, where I sit and think, “There is absolutely no way they should lose they game.” Yet week after week, they manage to prove me a wrong. A team with that much talent can only perform like this if it really just doesn’t care, and I think that’s what’s happening to this Norv Turner-led squad. He’s got to be out at season’s end. Fortunately for him, the Bolts’ opponent this week decided to go ahead and trash the remainder of the season by firing Jack del Rio in the middle of Week 13. Why this would happen, I have no idea (maybe it had something to do with the new ownership?), but it’s never a bad idea. It does nothing for the current team, and it won’t do anything for this one.

San Diego Chargers: 27-13