Week 14 NFL Predictions

Well finals week means a belated blog, but let’s be honest: If you needed my help picking Pittsburgh over Cleveland, then you clearly aren’t watching enough football this year. The solution? Watch more. Buffalo Wild Wings plays every game every week, and I strongly suggest camping out there for a few hours.

In other news, Green Bay seems to have survived its last major scare of the season, while the 49ers, who a few weeks ago seemed locks for at least the No. 2 seed, if not overtaking the Packers at one, now have to watch their backs as the incredibly hot Saints are looking about as perfect as a football team can lately. Tim Tebow finally deserves the credit he’s been getting for weeks, with a thrilling shootout in Minnesota (which most of the West Coast apparently didn’t get to see). The Texans don’t seem to remember how to lose – matching their franchise-best win total in only Week 13 – while the Bears are embracing the we-need-a-QB argument to the fullest expense. Seriously, that was an ugly game, Chicago. Most of the divisions seem to have settled down somewhat, with the exception of the turbulent AFC West and NFC East, but hopefully this week will shed some light on who’s going to take them. With that, here’s this week’s picks:

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 104-54

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5):

I know the Packers are undefeated, and I’ve never liked hearing people say that some other, non-undefeated team is the hottest team in the same league, but I really think that applies here. Drew Brees is making an all-out assault on the record books right now – he has 4,000 yards through 12 games. That’s beyond ridiculous – and the defense is back to its opportunistic, 2009 ways. New Orleans didn’t blow out Detroit, but it did make a good team with a strong chance at making the playoffs look positively pedestrian. The Titans, for their part, though, aren’t too bad either. They held off a suddenly scrappy Bills team in Buffalo, and Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing through the last four games. As well as the Titans seem to be playing right now, though, they just have no way to stop Brees this week.

New Orleans Saints: 27-21

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5):

The Lions played one of their more consistent games against New Orleans last week. Unfortunately for them, they were just consistently worse than the Saints all game long. However, the Lions don’t have to be great to back into the postseason. The Falcons look guaranteed to lock up a wildcard spot, but the Lions’ competition for the remaining slot are QB-less Chicago, collapsing New York, and a way-behind, but still-surging Seattle squad, which means all Detroit has to do is beat the teams it’s supposed to beat. And Minnesota is one of those teams. Adrian Peterson aside, this team has officially hit zero redeemable value. Detroit needs to use this time to recover before hitting the final, incredibly difficult three games of its schedule.

Detroit Lions: 24-13

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5):

I honestly don’t know how to pick this Houston team. By all rights, it should be losing every game, yet it doesn’t. The Texans beat a good Falcons team after losing both Schaub and now Johnson (again) last week. Now they face a solid Bengals team that has the exact opposite issue from the ones the Texans face – perfectly healthy but not winning – in Cincinnati. So naturally, Houston’s going to win this game.

Houston Texans: 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8):

You know what’s funny? Asante Samuel said earlier this year that the Philly front office was playing “fantasy football” rather than real football. I dismissed that statement and chalked it up to a disgruntled player who took being put on the trading block personally. Looking back on it now, seems like Samuel diagnosed the Eagles’ problems before the Eagles knew they had problems. And of course, now they’re playing the Dolphins at the worst possible time. Philly might shut down Reggie Bush this week – he’s due for a bad game – but, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, Miami has developed too many weapons to be slowed down by the struggling Eagles’ D.

Miami Dolphins: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5):

It’s weird. The Jets were essentially erased from the playoff picture after a Week 11 loss to the Broncos, and now they’re actually tied for a playoff spot right now. And yet … no Rex Ryan comments? What is the world coming to? Meanwhile, Kansas City just doesn’t know when to give up. Thanks to a weird upset in the Windy City, the Chiefs aren’t completely eliminated from the AFC West picture, but after this week, they should be. KC just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently compete with anyone, and as long as New York can keep its offense producing for a full 60 minutes, the Jets should have this one in hand.

New York Jets: 31-14

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8):

Thanks to a timely collapse by the Giants and Lions and the loss of Jay Cutler by the Bears, the Falcons have virtually locked up a wildcard slot in the NFC. Matt Ryan and Roddy White seem to have hit their stride, and Michael Turner continues to quietly be one of the most productive backs in the league. Carolina’s defense seems much improved in the last two weeks, but this was against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay – who really may be just as bad as the Colts right now. Newton singlehandedly dominated the Bucs last week, but Atlanta’s defense is a lot more stout and won’t be so easy to push around.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8):

I’m glad Mike Shanahan finally came to his senses and decided to start the quarterback that, you know, moves the ball, but it’s too little too late. The Skins’ D has sunk to its worst level in years, and New England’s defense has improved to the point where it can actually be called a defense now. Tom Brady has his rhythm back after a few-game slump, Deion Branch is fully healthy and Rob Gronkowski is simply putting on a show. The Patriots should be able to just about lock up a playoff spot this week.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9):

This game may actually have zero redeemable value. I would say don’t watch this, but I’m pretty sure it’s been blacked out. Tampa Bay has been truly awful the past few weeks, and Jacksonville not only has a completely inept offense; it now has no coach. It should be just what the Buccaneers need to start righting the ship (see what I did there?).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20-17

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3):

Well the Cotls have … meh, I’m not gonna fake this. I wonder if Ray Rice can go for 200?

Baltimore Ravens: 37-13

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5):

Four weeks ago, this game looked completely different. The Broncos and Tim Tebow seemed like a passing phase, while Jay Cutler was just starting to light defenses up. Then we got to see just how bad Caleb Hanie is, and not only has the Broncos’ D been surprisingly efficient – giving up more than 20 points only once in its last six wins – but Tebow actually showed off a little bit last week. Chicago’s defense will keep this thing close, but Denver – I can’t believe I’m gonna say this – is too well-rounded to take out at home.

Denver Broncos: 23-15

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)

I know it’s just the St. Louis Rams, but the 49ers did something impressive with their 26-0 win last week. Thanks to the lack of talent disparity in the NFL and the odds of a defense screwing up at least one play out of 60-80 during a game, it’s incredibly hard to shut out an opponent, especially in a blowout. That the Niners did it, and without Patrick Willis for the whole game, is amazing and a pretty nice bounce back from that loss to the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are no slouches themselves, right now. Winners of 4-of-5, they, along with the Seahawks’ performance in the last five weeks have helped to make the West the hottest division in the NFC. Of course, Arizona’s only loss in the last five weeks? Against San Francisco. Kevin Kolb is back and seems to be playing much better, while a much-improved defense should help slow down Frank Gore and a resurgent Alex Smith, but it won’t be enough to stop the Niners from further extending their division lead.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0):

All year long, Oakland has been gashed by the run. All year long, Green Bay hasn’t touched the run. One of these has to give this week. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great, but it will be one of the best Rodgers has faced to this point, and he’ll need to be either perfect or be able to seriously manage the run game this week. On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer is officially playing like an NFL starter now – even getting trounced in Miami, he managed to almost make a game of it – and Green Bay’s pass defense leaves a lot on the table. Fortunately for the Pack, Darren McFadden looks to be out for one more week, and it’s going to be cold this week at Lambeau, giving Green Bay all the edge it needs.

Green Bay Packers: 31-20

Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7):

Surely we can’t attribute the Chargers’ failings to the fact that the offense hasn’t been healthy all year long. I know Ryan Mathews was healthy enough for the first time to make a stout run D just look silly and Malcolm Floyd is simply fully healthy for the first time all year, but that cannot excuse Philip Rivers horrendous play during crucial moments of past games. That said, based on how San Diego simply ripped into Jacksonville last week, hopes have to be pretty high for San Diego, which comes close to controlling its own destiny. It has to start with a win this week against the still-reeling-but-scrappy Bills. C.J. Spiller is making a nice impact, and Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have picked himself back up, but it’s not going to be enough to stop San Diego at home.

San Diego Chargers: 31-23

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5):

Was the Arizona game the point where Dallas fans slap their foreheads and say, “Here we go again”? Because that was timed beautifully. First December game this year, and Dallas does its part by providing a skunk of a game, and it can’t even be blamed on Tony Romo this time. Of course, the Giants won’t make the Cowboys’ collapse easy, in the midst of their own serious breakdown. New York played incredibly well against Green Bay last week, but that kind of heart-wrenching, last-second loss is going to take a serious emotional toll on an already suffering team, which it doesn’t need, heading into a primetime showdown with one of its biggest rivals. Dallas should be able to widen the gap just a bit in the race for the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys: 23-17

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7):

As long as these two teams have been in the same division (nine years now), they have never been relevant at the same time. Why would you subject us to this game on primetime, ESPN? Why, why, why? Two words: Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-10

Week 13 NFL Predictions

And the gap gets just a little bit wider. San Francisco, which seems to be the only serious contender to the still-undefeated Packers, went down in the Har-Bowl (cheesy, but I heard it somewhere, and I love it) on Thanksgiving night. Given how well Aaron Rodgers is still playing, it’s hard to imagine anyone can narrow that gap again, although Drew Brees and Tom Brady are back to trying their best to do so. Houston, meanwhile, leads the AFC, yet can’t seem to catch a lucky break, losing its second-string QB for the season with a broken collarbone this week. Of course, this team is nothing if not resilient. Andre Johnson and Arian Foster have both missed significant playing time, yet the team still averages around 25 points per game, and the Texans’ defense only became the league’s best after Mario Williams went down. Meanwhile, farther west, the Broncos continue to win, and their defense continue to get absolutely zero credit for its phenomenal turnaround, thanks to Tebowmania. The Chargers and the Eagles have reached free fall, and Jacksonville decided it wanted to join them. Finally, the gaps in the divisional races seem to keep widening, and it looks like we’re only a few days away from the first team (San Francisco) locking up its division title. With all that info to process, here are Week 13’s picks:

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 94-48

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7):

I think I said it last week, but I like Vince Young for this team. He’s a less dynamic Michael Vick, but that’s a great thing, because it should be the defense that gets the spotlight on this team, and since it’s forced to simply play goalkeeper after Vick’s pick obsession kicks in, it doesn’t have the chance to because it simply gets worn down. New England was an exception to this. Both Brady and Wes Welker had their best games in weeks and it was all Young could do to simply keep up statistically, let alone on the scoreboard. That said, however, Philly’s play is still too erratic on offense to convince me to get back on board. Marshawn Lynch has a very favorable matchup against the Eagles D, and this game may just coe down to which quarterback doesn’t throw interceptions. And I think that will be Seattle’s Charlie Whitehurst.

Seattle Seahawks: 24-20

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6):

If Tennessee could get consistent play from Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson, it could easily be a contender in the AFC. Unfortunately for the Titans, the two seem to simultaneously click about once a month, which is what they did last week. CJ seems to be making men miss again, but he’ll need to do this at least two weeks in a row to convince me he’s back. Buffalo, meanwhile, showed more fight last week than it had the last month combined. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked much better and the team seemed to be able to absorb yet another major loss in Fred Jackson. The team seems to be willing to fight with or without its missing key players, and that’s a dangerous look against a team as inconsistent as Tennessee.

Buffalo Bills: 23-17

Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3):

The loss to Kevin Smith hurt (and Jahvid Best going on IR from a concussion is no picnic either), but that’s not the sole reason the Lions were shut out most of the game. Jeff Hanson was off his usual kicking prowess, and Matt Stafford was, well, Matt Stafford. Detroit, unfortunately (for them and me), will have to accept what they get out of him, though, because he’s just as likely to turn around and eat up the Saints’ defense this week. New Orleans, meanwhile, has hit its stride. Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas are rolling, Drew Brees could easily throw for 5,500, and the defense is back to Super Bowl form. It’s hard to imagine any team stopping the Saints for the rest of the year, and the inconsistency-plagued Lions are no exception.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (4-7) at Chicago Bears (7-4):

And now we’re set up for a battle of the QB-less in Chicago this week. It’s sad how sporadic the Chiefs have been this season, initially counted out, then contenders for the division title after a four-game win streak and now all but eliminated after another three-game losing streak. The Bears, however, only recently passed the mantle of NFC’s hottest team to New Orleans after Jay Cutler broke his hand (of course, the Chiefs losing Matt Cassel isn’t exactly a brush on the shoulder). Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Chicago wins games on special teams and defense and on the back of Matt Forte. Kansas City has … Kyle Orton, who may be valuable in the coming weeks, but instinct says he’s not quite ready to be on the wrong side of the Bears defense.

Chicago Bears: 24-14

Oakland Raiders (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-8):

Carson Palmer is back, Darren McFadden is almost there, and the Raiders are doing Al Davis’ memory proud. The loss of Cutler helped, but the Raiders still managed to shut down Matt Forte and the rest of that offense for much of the game, and actually outdueled the Bears on special teams. If you’re asking why that matters, any time a kicker kicks six field goals, and Devin Hester doesn’t have the longest play of the game, it matters. The Dolphins on the other hand can only look forward to playing spoiler from this point on, but they play that role remarkably well right now, giving Dallas a scare into the final minute. Miami holds a key advantage in this game, thanks to Reggie Bush’s resurgence and a Raiders’ D that continues to struggle against the run. Look for Miami to get to play spoiler at least one more time this year.

Miami Dolphins: 17-13

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-9):

Minnesota does two things well: run the ball and stop the run. Denver does both as well. One slight fix for Minnesota: It’s never seen the likes of Denver’s ground attack. That, coupled with the likelihood of Adrian Peterson not playing at full capacity (if he plays at all, which I don’t think is likely), means Minnesota is hard-pressed to find any advantages against a much-improved Denver defense. Look for the Broncos to finish the incredible divisional turnaround this week.

Denver Broncos: 18-14

Indianapolis Colts (0-11) at New England Patriots (8-3):

Not even gonna waste my breath.

New England Patriots: 40-14

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3):

Anything I write will be a repeat of what I wrote for these two teams’ matchup a few weeks ago. Two solid teams, vying for second in the AFC North and at least one wild-card spot. Again, though, Pittsburgh has the advantage in Big Ben and a defense that, while aging, still have the maturity advantage that goes a long way in these defensive struggles. Pittsburgh will complete the series sweep this year, but this could be the last time anyone says that for a long time.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-13

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7):

From a talent and performance perspective, at least in this moment, Carolina runs away with this game. However, both teams have been finding ways to lose throughout the year, and quite frankly, I think Carolina’s methods have been much more impressive. Cam Newton will probably have the best statistical day he’s had in weeks, but it won’t be enough to stop the Buccaneers from pulling out of their tailspin, for one week at least. LeGarrette Blount is back to his old hurdle-the-cornerback-with-ease self, and eventually the rest of that team will have to pull itself together.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-23

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington Redskins (4-7):

I wish Shanahan would make up his mind about his quarterbacks. This QB shuffle makes it incredibly hard to predict the team’s performance, though I think it’s clear that Grossman is the better QB (though I don’t think that was ever a question, and I don’t know why Shanahan tried to answer it). Unfortunately for Grossman, the Jets’ problems stem almost entirely from the offensive side of the ball, leaving him to face a very tough, very motivated defense this week. I’m still not sold on the Jets’ offensive capabilities, and I don’t think we’ll see anything here to push me one way or the other, but New York should be able to do enough to walk out with an ugly win.

New York Jets: 17-13

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Houston Texans (8-3):

Atlanta’s finally pulling together, just as it seems that Houston is about to hit a tailspin. I think Houston can pull out of this, and if nothing else, it has a fairly easy path to locking up its division, but the Falcons should be able to steal a win in Reliant it otherwise shouldn’t be able to have earned.

Atlanta Falcons: 24-17

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7):

Again, I have plenty of things to say about this game, but so far Baltimore has managed to defy logic by losing to shoddy opponents after a big win every single time this year. Look for this week to be no different, as a newly motivated Peyton Hillis runs roughshod over the Ravens’ D.

Cleveland Browns: 16-13

Green Bay Packers (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5):

This looks to be the final major test for the Packers to go 16-0. Under ordinary circumstances, Green Bay should incredibly wary of New York right now, but these aren’t normal circumstances. Tom Coughlin is once again under fire for his job, and the players are now fielding accusations of simply giving up against New Orleans – an accusation they really didn’t bother trying to dispel on the field. The Giants will probably come out this week playing for everything – a loss drops them to possibly three behind the Cowboys with four to play – but Rodgers simply has too many weapons. Eli Manning and Co. will keep it close for most of the game, but the Giants just don’t have enough motivation/skill/whatever they need to slow down the Pack.

Green Bay Packers: 37-28

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7):

Funny how the Cowboys were discounted as busts at the beginning of the year, yet now they could easily back their way into a playoff spot. They won’t do that, though, because of games like this one. The Cardinals have won four games, but that’s because they’re in the NFC West. Dallas has too many weapons for Arizona to reasonably stop them, and it can’t rely on Beanie Wells to repeat his performance last week, since that seems to just be a St. Louis anomaly (see DeMarco Murray). Dallas should be able to move one game from locking up its division this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 24-16

St. Louis Rams (2-9) at San Francisco 49ers (9-2):

A team that’s reeling for the second time this year with a defense that’s more porous than the an acne-ridden teenager meets a team that will be furious after its loss in Baltimore, fueled by a power back and a powerful defense. This won’t be pretty, St. Louis.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-13

San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8):

I want to pick against the reeling Chargers. I really, really do, but they keep getting matchups like this, where I sit and think, “There is absolutely no way they should lose they game.” Yet week after week, they manage to prove me a wrong. A team with that much talent can only perform like this if it really just doesn’t care, and I think that’s what’s happening to this Norv Turner-led squad. He’s got to be out at season’s end. Fortunately for him, the Bolts’ opponent this week decided to go ahead and trash the remainder of the season by firing Jack del Rio in the middle of Week 13. Why this would happen, I have no idea (maybe it had something to do with the new ownership?), but it’s never a bad idea. It does nothing for the current team, and it won’t do anything for this one.

San Diego Chargers: 27-13