Week 14 NFL Predictions

Well finals week means a belated blog, but let’s be honest: If you needed my help picking Pittsburgh over Cleveland, then you clearly aren’t watching enough football this year. The solution? Watch more. Buffalo Wild Wings plays every game every week, and I strongly suggest camping out there for a few hours.

In other news, Green Bay seems to have survived its last major scare of the season, while the 49ers, who a few weeks ago seemed locks for at least the No. 2 seed, if not overtaking the Packers at one, now have to watch their backs as the incredibly hot Saints are looking about as perfect as a football team can lately. Tim Tebow finally deserves the credit he’s been getting for weeks, with a thrilling shootout in Minnesota (which most of the West Coast apparently didn’t get to see). The Texans don’t seem to remember how to lose – matching their franchise-best win total in only Week 13 – while the Bears are embracing the we-need-a-QB argument to the fullest expense. Seriously, that was an ugly game, Chicago. Most of the divisions seem to have settled down somewhat, with the exception of the turbulent AFC West and NFC East, but hopefully this week will shed some light on who’s going to take them. With that, here’s this week’s picks:

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 104-54

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5):

I know the Packers are undefeated, and I’ve never liked hearing people say that some other, non-undefeated team is the hottest team in the same league, but I really think that applies here. Drew Brees is making an all-out assault on the record books right now – he has 4,000 yards through 12 games. That’s beyond ridiculous – and the defense is back to its opportunistic, 2009 ways. New Orleans didn’t blow out Detroit, but it did make a good team with a strong chance at making the playoffs look positively pedestrian. The Titans, for their part, though, aren’t too bad either. They held off a suddenly scrappy Bills team in Buffalo, and Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing through the last four games. As well as the Titans seem to be playing right now, though, they just have no way to stop Brees this week.

New Orleans Saints: 27-21

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5):

The Lions played one of their more consistent games against New Orleans last week. Unfortunately for them, they were just consistently worse than the Saints all game long. However, the Lions don’t have to be great to back into the postseason. The Falcons look guaranteed to lock up a wildcard spot, but the Lions’ competition for the remaining slot are QB-less Chicago, collapsing New York, and a way-behind, but still-surging Seattle squad, which means all Detroit has to do is beat the teams it’s supposed to beat. And Minnesota is one of those teams. Adrian Peterson aside, this team has officially hit zero redeemable value. Detroit needs to use this time to recover before hitting the final, incredibly difficult three games of its schedule.

Detroit Lions: 24-13

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5):

I honestly don’t know how to pick this Houston team. By all rights, it should be losing every game, yet it doesn’t. The Texans beat a good Falcons team after losing both Schaub and now Johnson (again) last week. Now they face a solid Bengals team that has the exact opposite issue from the ones the Texans face – perfectly healthy but not winning – in Cincinnati. So naturally, Houston’s going to win this game.

Houston Texans: 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8):

You know what’s funny? Asante Samuel said earlier this year that the Philly front office was playing “fantasy football” rather than real football. I dismissed that statement and chalked it up to a disgruntled player who took being put on the trading block personally. Looking back on it now, seems like Samuel diagnosed the Eagles’ problems before the Eagles knew they had problems. And of course, now they’re playing the Dolphins at the worst possible time. Philly might shut down Reggie Bush this week – he’s due for a bad game – but, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, Miami has developed too many weapons to be slowed down by the struggling Eagles’ D.

Miami Dolphins: 31-20

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5):

It’s weird. The Jets were essentially erased from the playoff picture after a Week 11 loss to the Broncos, and now they’re actually tied for a playoff spot right now. And yet … no Rex Ryan comments? What is the world coming to? Meanwhile, Kansas City just doesn’t know when to give up. Thanks to a weird upset in the Windy City, the Chiefs aren’t completely eliminated from the AFC West picture, but after this week, they should be. KC just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently compete with anyone, and as long as New York can keep its offense producing for a full 60 minutes, the Jets should have this one in hand.

New York Jets: 31-14

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8):

Thanks to a timely collapse by the Giants and Lions and the loss of Jay Cutler by the Bears, the Falcons have virtually locked up a wildcard slot in the NFC. Matt Ryan and Roddy White seem to have hit their stride, and Michael Turner continues to quietly be one of the most productive backs in the league. Carolina’s defense seems much improved in the last two weeks, but this was against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay – who really may be just as bad as the Colts right now. Newton singlehandedly dominated the Bucs last week, but Atlanta’s defense is a lot more stout and won’t be so easy to push around.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8):

I’m glad Mike Shanahan finally came to his senses and decided to start the quarterback that, you know, moves the ball, but it’s too little too late. The Skins’ D has sunk to its worst level in years, and New England’s defense has improved to the point where it can actually be called a defense now. Tom Brady has his rhythm back after a few-game slump, Deion Branch is fully healthy and Rob Gronkowski is simply putting on a show. The Patriots should be able to just about lock up a playoff spot this week.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9):

This game may actually have zero redeemable value. I would say don’t watch this, but I’m pretty sure it’s been blacked out. Tampa Bay has been truly awful the past few weeks, and Jacksonville not only has a completely inept offense; it now has no coach. It should be just what the Buccaneers need to start righting the ship (see what I did there?).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20-17

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3):

Well the Cotls have … meh, I’m not gonna fake this. I wonder if Ray Rice can go for 200?

Baltimore Ravens: 37-13

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5):

Four weeks ago, this game looked completely different. The Broncos and Tim Tebow seemed like a passing phase, while Jay Cutler was just starting to light defenses up. Then we got to see just how bad Caleb Hanie is, and not only has the Broncos’ D been surprisingly efficient – giving up more than 20 points only once in its last six wins – but Tebow actually showed off a little bit last week. Chicago’s defense will keep this thing close, but Denver – I can’t believe I’m gonna say this – is too well-rounded to take out at home.

Denver Broncos: 23-15

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)

I know it’s just the St. Louis Rams, but the 49ers did something impressive with their 26-0 win last week. Thanks to the lack of talent disparity in the NFL and the odds of a defense screwing up at least one play out of 60-80 during a game, it’s incredibly hard to shut out an opponent, especially in a blowout. That the Niners did it, and without Patrick Willis for the whole game, is amazing and a pretty nice bounce back from that loss to the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are no slouches themselves, right now. Winners of 4-of-5, they, along with the Seahawks’ performance in the last five weeks have helped to make the West the hottest division in the NFC. Of course, Arizona’s only loss in the last five weeks? Against San Francisco. Kevin Kolb is back and seems to be playing much better, while a much-improved defense should help slow down Frank Gore and a resurgent Alex Smith, but it won’t be enough to stop the Niners from further extending their division lead.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0):

All year long, Oakland has been gashed by the run. All year long, Green Bay hasn’t touched the run. One of these has to give this week. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great, but it will be one of the best Rodgers has faced to this point, and he’ll need to be either perfect or be able to seriously manage the run game this week. On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer is officially playing like an NFL starter now – even getting trounced in Miami, he managed to almost make a game of it – and Green Bay’s pass defense leaves a lot on the table. Fortunately for the Pack, Darren McFadden looks to be out for one more week, and it’s going to be cold this week at Lambeau, giving Green Bay all the edge it needs.

Green Bay Packers: 31-20

Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7):

Surely we can’t attribute the Chargers’ failings to the fact that the offense hasn’t been healthy all year long. I know Ryan Mathews was healthy enough for the first time to make a stout run D just look silly and Malcolm Floyd is simply fully healthy for the first time all year, but that cannot excuse Philip Rivers horrendous play during crucial moments of past games. That said, based on how San Diego simply ripped into Jacksonville last week, hopes have to be pretty high for San Diego, which comes close to controlling its own destiny. It has to start with a win this week against the still-reeling-but-scrappy Bills. C.J. Spiller is making a nice impact, and Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have picked himself back up, but it’s not going to be enough to stop San Diego at home.

San Diego Chargers: 31-23

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5):

Was the Arizona game the point where Dallas fans slap their foreheads and say, “Here we go again”? Because that was timed beautifully. First December game this year, and Dallas does its part by providing a skunk of a game, and it can’t even be blamed on Tony Romo this time. Of course, the Giants won’t make the Cowboys’ collapse easy, in the midst of their own serious breakdown. New York played incredibly well against Green Bay last week, but that kind of heart-wrenching, last-second loss is going to take a serious emotional toll on an already suffering team, which it doesn’t need, heading into a primetime showdown with one of its biggest rivals. Dallas should be able to widen the gap just a bit in the race for the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys: 23-17

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7):

As long as these two teams have been in the same division (nine years now), they have never been relevant at the same time. Why would you subject us to this game on primetime, ESPN? Why, why, why? Two words: Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-10

Week 9 NFL Predictions

Just when we hit the midway point and think that the season’s settling down, that the bad teams are bad and the good teams are good, we get Tebow, we get Miami, we get Baltimore, but most of all, we get Jackson. St. Louis didn’t just upset the Saints to earn its first win of the season, it absolutely demolished the Saints, thanks in most part to Stephen Jackson, who had close to a career day. Tim Tebow was finally, consistently bad, which means more inconsistency at Denver’s QB position within the next few weeks. The Dolphins can’t decide whether they want Andrew Luck or whether they don’t want their second 1-15 season in the last four years (take the latter, Miami. Seriously, take the latter), and the Ravens are busy personifying just how wacky the AFC Wild Card race could get this year. Halfway through the season, the AFC has no clear-cut division leaders – in fact, every division has less than a half-game difference between first and second – and 12 of the 16 teams are solidly in contention for the playoffs. This week should help clear up that mess just a bit. Let’s get to Week 9:

Last Week: 8-4 (I forgot about the Houston-Jacksonville game. It’s a bit depressing.)

Overall: 56-27

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-3):

How ugly does that Week 2 loss to the Broncos look for Cincinnati now? It’s a smear on an otherwise remarkable season for the Bengals, who are putting away games with incredible defense and great fourth quarters … which is about the opposite of what the Titans have been doing lately. Tennessee’s defense has plummeted, defenses seem to have figured out Matt Hasselbeck, and if Chris Johnson doesn’t get benched soon, Tennessee may be throwing away its playoff hopes simply to get its money’s worth out of him. If Andy Dalton can keep from making big mistakes on the road, Cincinnati should keep its win streak, and its surprising first-place position in the AFC North, alive.

Cincinnati Bengals: 21-13

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2):

It’s been a loooong time since the Bills were the frontrunners in the AFC East race. Granted, I don’t think they’ll follow through this year, they’re still off to what has to be the turnaround of the season. Mark Sanchez is just the kind of quarterback that the Bills’ D thrives on: nearly incapable of big plays and horribly mistake prone. The Jets defense is playing as well as ever, and Darrelle Revis is still the NFL’s premier shutdown corner, but Buffalo’s offense, led by Fred Jackson, is close to unstoppable right now. The Jets should be right where they wanna be going into the second half of the season: .500.

Buffalo Bills: 27-16

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4):

Well, it’s official, Seattle’s offense can only move with Tarvaris Jackson under center. Unfortunately, it still can’t score. Marshawn Lynch is back and, presumably, fully healthy again, but don’t expect him to imitate LeSean McCoy this week. Dallas is coming off a Philadelphia flop, getting embarrassed in just about every possible on primetime. This is a team that could (and probably should) be a legit 6-1 right now, and Seattle simply will not have the manpower to stop what’s likely to be the best-looking offensive performance of the season for Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-21

Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-8):

I’m running out of reasons to write paragraphs about the Colts games. This team hasn’t been competitive since its collapse in Week 4 against Kansas City. On the bright side, they’re giving Peyton Manning a legitimate shot at being the first player in history to win the MVP for a season without taking a snap.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Miami Dolphins (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3):

Oh oh, I know what’s gonna happen here! Miami’s gonna race out to a three-score lead, then redefine epic collapse for the third week in a row. KC is gonna keep rolling into sole ownership of first place in the AFC West, and all will be right with the world … Just kidding. Dolphins have to win one eventually. It’s scary how competitive this team has been in recent weeks, and if Daniel Thomas can come back healthy this week, a run-based Miami offense should present some serious challenges for the Chiefs’ D, which couldn’t seem to get off the field last week without help from Philip Rivers. Miami will try to throw this, but someone will accidentally pick off a Matt Cassel pass in the red zone late in the fourth.

Miami Dolphins: 24-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-3):

All I have for you, Tampa Bay is one word: Ouch. Everything fits for the Bucs right now. Bye week, healthy LeGarette Blount, a Josh Freeman that finally seems to be back to 2010 form. Problem is, the Saints didn’t just lose to the Rams. They were embarrassed, outplayed from start to finish, with absolutely no answer on either side of the ball. Now they’re back home, and coach Sean Payton should be back to playcalling (who knew that would be a big deal against St. Louis?) this week. Plus, Drew Brees isn’t the type to give away two division games in a season to the same team.

New Orleans Saints: 31-27

San Francisco 49ers (6-1) at Washington Redskins (3-4):

San Francisco is rolling. The Niners are easily the hottest team in the NFL, and their D may be the only answer to Aaron Rodgers in the NFC right now. But that’s for later. For right now, we worry about the confidence of going from division bottom-feeder to a five-game win streak and four game division lead. (Did I mention they’ve only played 7 games? That’s really sad.) Washington has yet to win with Josh Beck under center, which begs the question: Why has Shanahan not yanked him yet? My guess: It’s because Beck has shown flashes of ability; he just hasn’t put together a full game. The Skins defense is still one of the stingier teams in the league when it comes to points allowed, and that’s going to play to their advantage against a team that doesn’t turn the ball over. If Washington can stop Frank Gore and force the game onto Alex Smith’s shoulders, it can stop San Fran. But I don’t think that will happen.

Washington Redskins: 16-13

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Houston Texans (5-3):

Aside from a near-blowout loss to Tennessee in Week 4, Cleveland has, at the least, been competitive in every one of its games, its defense making up for Colt McCoy’s lack of fireworks on the offense. Peyton Hillis has been plagued by injuries this year, and the Browns still have no receiving threat. Houston’s pass defense is already good enough without assistance from the other side. Now Arian Foster is in full stride and Matt Schaub is playing as well as he’s played all year. Have fun keeping up, Cleveland.

Houston Texans: 34-17

Denver Broncos (2-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-3):

Oakland couldn’t have timed this bye week any better. Carson Palmer has had two weeks to get used to the offense after that disaster against Kansas City, and now he gets to ease himself back into the league against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Also, Tebow should have fun playing against one of the stingiest secondaries in the league.

Oakland Raiders: 34-17

New York Giants (5-2) at New England Patriots (5-2):

OK, I was wrong about saying that Belichick doesn’t lose after bye weeks. He clearly did. And the league seems to have figured out the conundrum that was Tom Brady-to-Wes Welker. Eli Manning has the Giants offense rolling, as shown by the double-digit comeback he managed to pull off against Miami last week. However, Ahmad Bradshaw is, at the very least, hobbled for the game, and Brandon Jacobs isn’t the same Jacobs we saw dominate the league two years. Plus, the Giants defense isn’t the Steelers defense, and it doesn’t have the advantage of a home turf. New York needs a perfect game out of Eli to pull off the upset, but even that may not be enough if Brady manages to find his groove again.

New England Patriots: 38-28

St. Louis Rams (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6):

This was shaping up to be the pillow fight of the season before St. Louis beat the Saints and Kevin Kolb was knocked out of the matchup. Now the only question is, can home-field advantage and Beanie Wells be enough to stop St. Louis and the (questionable) return of Sam Bradford? Probably. That’s the beauty of parody. Even with a fully healthy offense, St. Louis is not playoff caliber, and these teams are both bad enough that this could go either way, and Arizona needs this win a lot worse than St. Louis right now.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-17

Green Bay Packers (7-0) at San Diego Chargers (4-3):

It’s hard to explain just how much the Chargers needed the win that Rivers fumbled away Monday night. The collapse in New York, followed by that game, have turned what was once a comfortable lead in a good division into a three-way tie. Granted, the Chargers are historically great in December, they first have to survive a tough November schedule that starts with the league’s best quarterback coming off a bye. Ryan Matthews is probably out for the game as well, and San Diego’s bend-don’t-break attitude on defense won’t be much use against a quarterback who simply doesn’t mess up.

Green Bay Packers: 34-23

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2):

That’s two weeks in a row that Monday Night Football is worth watching. About time ESPN shaped up on the scheduling. Think the Steelers are walking with a little more confidence this week? The Patriots’ score was much closer than the game was. Pittsburgh simply dominated that game in every facet, right down to the final, heads-up (blatantly illegal) play by Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are incredibly good at home this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and Joe Flacco won’t make things any easier with his struggles. If Baltimore falls into a deep hole for the third straight week, this Steelers’ D won’t be the kind to relent.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-16

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4):

That’s two weeks in a row that Monday Night Football is worth watching. About time ESPN shaped up on the scheduling. As for Chicago, it is not a good time to be a Philadelphia visitor right now. The Eagles are clearly frustrated with their results and, as Dallas found out, are now looking for teams to take those frustrations out on. Philly came out of the bye week clicking on all cylinders, offensively and defensively, and the Bears simply don’t have the defensive ability to match every Philadelphia weapon – then again, not many teams do right now. If the Eagles D stays as relentless as it was last week and consistently gets to Jay Cutler, it won’t matter how much Matt Forte does to carry the team; it won’t be enough.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-20

Week 6 NFL Predictions

Couldn’t find much time this week to get the blog on, so you’re gonna get a convinced version this time around … I swear I’ll be redeeming my horrendous performance last week.

San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0):

San Francisco doesn’t give up the play. San Francisco also doesn’t play Megatron. Lions will lose eventually, but it won’t be at home.

Detroit Lions: 27-24

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3):

Falcons are reeling. Their defense stepped up, but then the offense couldn’t get going last week. Cam Newton and the Panthers are a danger every week, and there’s no better than this week.

Carolina Panthers: 31-27

Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2):

Colts had a lot of time to at least eke out a win, but they couldn’t take advantage. Bengals, at home, with a team that looks like it’s starting to click (minus Cedric Benson, who needs to find his legs), should have fun here.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-10

St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0):

Poor St. Louis.

Green Bay Packers: 41-14

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2):

The Bills don’t like proving me right. Still gonna pick them against a Giants team that gave up 36 points to the Seahawks.

Buffalo Bills: 31-28

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2):

The Jaguars’ only saving grace is that Pitt’s offense may be as bad its own. That said, the Jaguars really have no saving grace this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 27-20

Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1):

Skins have too much staked in this game and too much talent to get whipped up on. Vick apologists may say that the losing streak isn’t all his fault, but four interceptions, including one pick-six, speak for themselves.

Washington Redskins: 26-20

Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2):

If Peyton Hillis is back to full health, the Browns should be able to keep this one close, but this is Oakland’s first home game since Al Davis’ death, and Oakland has too much offensive talent to sputter at home.

Oakland Raiders: 21-13

Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1):

Texans are reeling. Andre Johnson’s out for another week, at least, and Mario Williams is gone for the season, and that is huge. Texans can still win a weakened AFC South, but they’re gonna have to make up some serious ground.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-20

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1):

I love that people are still counting on Tony Romo to be big in big games. Especially against a team like the Patriots. He’ll get his 400 yards, but there will be no upset today. Wes Welker and Tom Brady are still the most dangerous combo in the league, and the Patriots all of a sudden have a top-5 run game.

New England: 35-25

New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2):

I don’t think anyone saw that Bay Area beatdown coming from the Bucs. Good teams just don’t do that. In their defense, though, everything went wrong. And what’s better is, they get a very flawed Saints team at home this week. Recipe is perfect for recovering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-24

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3):

The Bears need this badly. As well as Cutler performed last week while running for his life against Detroit last week, it still wasn’t enough to even come close to winning. The Bears D has to, and should, step up this week against the Vikings, although Peterson should easily go for 140 yards.

Chicago Bears: 27-14

Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3):

Dolphins’ best playmaker (Brandon Marshall) wants to get ejected Monday night. Winning mentality there, Phins.

New York Jets: 34-14