Well finals week means a belated blog, but let’s be honest: If you needed my help picking Pittsburgh over Cleveland, then you clearly aren’t watching enough football this year. The solution? Watch more. Buffalo Wild Wings plays every game every week, and I strongly suggest camping out there for a few hours.
In other news, Green Bay seems to have survived its last major scare of the season, while the 49ers, who a few weeks ago seemed locks for at least the No. 2 seed, if not overtaking the Packers at one, now have to watch their backs as the incredibly hot Saints are looking about as perfect as a football team can lately. Tim Tebow finally deserves the credit he’s been getting for weeks, with a thrilling shootout in Minnesota (which most of the West Coast apparently didn’t get to see). The Texans don’t seem to remember how to lose – matching their franchise-best win total in only Week 13 – while the Bears are embracing the we-need-a-QB argument to the fullest expense. Seriously, that was an ugly game, Chicago. Most of the divisions seem to have settled down somewhat, with the exception of the turbulent AFC West and NFC East, but hopefully this week will shed some light on who’s going to take them. With that, here’s this week’s picks:
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 104-54
New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5):
I know the Packers are undefeated, and I’ve never liked hearing people say that some other, non-undefeated team is the hottest team in the same league, but I really think that applies here. Drew Brees is making an all-out assault on the record books right now – he has 4,000 yards through 12 games. That’s beyond ridiculous – and the defense is back to its opportunistic, 2009 ways. New Orleans didn’t blow out Detroit, but it did make a good team with a strong chance at making the playoffs look positively pedestrian. The Titans, for their part, though, aren’t too bad either. They held off a suddenly scrappy Bills team in Buffalo, and Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing through the last four games. As well as the Titans seem to be playing right now, though, they just have no way to stop Brees this week.
New Orleans Saints: 27-21
Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5):
The Lions played one of their more consistent games against New Orleans last week. Unfortunately for them, they were just consistently worse than the Saints all game long. However, the Lions don’t have to be great to back into the postseason. The Falcons look guaranteed to lock up a wildcard spot, but the Lions’ competition for the remaining slot are QB-less Chicago, collapsing New York, and a way-behind, but still-surging Seattle squad, which means all Detroit has to do is beat the teams it’s supposed to beat. And Minnesota is one of those teams. Adrian Peterson aside, this team has officially hit zero redeemable value. Detroit needs to use this time to recover before hitting the final, incredibly difficult three games of its schedule.
Detroit Lions: 24-13
Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5):
I honestly don’t know how to pick this Houston team. By all rights, it should be losing every game, yet it doesn’t. The Texans beat a good Falcons team after losing both Schaub and now Johnson (again) last week. Now they face a solid Bengals team that has the exact opposite issue from the ones the Texans face – perfectly healthy but not winning – in Cincinnati. So naturally, Houston’s going to win this game.
Houston Texans: 21-17
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8):
You know what’s funny? Asante Samuel said earlier this year that the Philly front office was playing “fantasy football” rather than real football. I dismissed that statement and chalked it up to a disgruntled player who took being put on the trading block personally. Looking back on it now, seems like Samuel diagnosed the Eagles’ problems before the Eagles knew they had problems. And of course, now they’re playing the Dolphins at the worst possible time. Philly might shut down Reggie Bush this week – he’s due for a bad game – but, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, Miami has developed too many weapons to be slowed down by the struggling Eagles’ D.
Miami Dolphins: 31-20
Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5):
It’s weird. The Jets were essentially erased from the playoff picture after a Week 11 loss to the Broncos, and now they’re actually tied for a playoff spot right now. And yet … no Rex Ryan comments? What is the world coming to? Meanwhile, Kansas City just doesn’t know when to give up. Thanks to a weird upset in the Windy City, the Chiefs aren’t completely eliminated from the AFC West picture, but after this week, they should be. KC just doesn’t have the weapons to consistently compete with anyone, and as long as New York can keep its offense producing for a full 60 minutes, the Jets should have this one in hand.
New York Jets: 31-14
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8):
Thanks to a timely collapse by the Giants and Lions and the loss of Jay Cutler by the Bears, the Falcons have virtually locked up a wildcard slot in the NFC. Matt Ryan and Roddy White seem to have hit their stride, and Michael Turner continues to quietly be one of the most productive backs in the league. Carolina’s defense seems much improved in the last two weeks, but this was against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay – who really may be just as bad as the Colts right now. Newton singlehandedly dominated the Bucs last week, but Atlanta’s defense is a lot more stout and won’t be so easy to push around.
Atlanta Falcons: 34-28
New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8):
I’m glad Mike Shanahan finally came to his senses and decided to start the quarterback that, you know, moves the ball, but it’s too little too late. The Skins’ D has sunk to its worst level in years, and New England’s defense has improved to the point where it can actually be called a defense now. Tom Brady has his rhythm back after a few-game slump, Deion Branch is fully healthy and Rob Gronkowski is simply putting on a show. The Patriots should be able to just about lock up a playoff spot this week.
New England Patriots: 34-24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9):
This game may actually have zero redeemable value. I would say don’t watch this, but I’m pretty sure it’s been blacked out. Tampa Bay has been truly awful the past few weeks, and Jacksonville not only has a completely inept offense; it now has no coach. It should be just what the Buccaneers need to start righting the ship (see what I did there?).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20-17
Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3):
Well the Cotls have … meh, I’m not gonna fake this. I wonder if Ray Rice can go for 200?
Baltimore Ravens: 37-13
Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5):
Four weeks ago, this game looked completely different. The Broncos and Tim Tebow seemed like a passing phase, while Jay Cutler was just starting to light defenses up. Then we got to see just how bad Caleb Hanie is, and not only has the Broncos’ D been surprisingly efficient – giving up more than 20 points only once in its last six wins – but Tebow actually showed off a little bit last week. Chicago’s defense will keep this thing close, but Denver – I can’t believe I’m gonna say this – is too well-rounded to take out at home.
Denver Broncos: 23-15
San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)
I know it’s just the St. Louis Rams, but the 49ers did something impressive with their 26-0 win last week. Thanks to the lack of talent disparity in the NFL and the odds of a defense screwing up at least one play out of 60-80 during a game, it’s incredibly hard to shut out an opponent, especially in a blowout. That the Niners did it, and without Patrick Willis for the whole game, is amazing and a pretty nice bounce back from that loss to the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are no slouches themselves, right now. Winners of 4-of-5, they, along with the Seahawks’ performance in the last five weeks have helped to make the West the hottest division in the NFC. Of course, Arizona’s only loss in the last five weeks? Against San Francisco. Kevin Kolb is back and seems to be playing much better, while a much-improved defense should help slow down Frank Gore and a resurgent Alex Smith, but it won’t be enough to stop the Niners from further extending their division lead.
San Francisco 49ers: 21-13
Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0):
All year long, Oakland has been gashed by the run. All year long, Green Bay hasn’t touched the run. One of these has to give this week. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great, but it will be one of the best Rodgers has faced to this point, and he’ll need to be either perfect or be able to seriously manage the run game this week. On the other side of the ball, Carson Palmer is officially playing like an NFL starter now – even getting trounced in Miami, he managed to almost make a game of it – and Green Bay’s pass defense leaves a lot on the table. Fortunately for the Pack, Darren McFadden looks to be out for one more week, and it’s going to be cold this week at Lambeau, giving Green Bay all the edge it needs.
Green Bay Packers: 31-20
Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7):
Surely we can’t attribute the Chargers’ failings to the fact that the offense hasn’t been healthy all year long. I know Ryan Mathews was healthy enough for the first time to make a stout run D just look silly and Malcolm Floyd is simply fully healthy for the first time all year, but that cannot excuse Philip Rivers horrendous play during crucial moments of past games. That said, based on how San Diego simply ripped into Jacksonville last week, hopes have to be pretty high for San Diego, which comes close to controlling its own destiny. It has to start with a win this week against the still-reeling-but-scrappy Bills. C.J. Spiller is making a nice impact, and Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have picked himself back up, but it’s not going to be enough to stop San Diego at home.
San Diego Chargers: 31-23
New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5):
Was the Arizona game the point where Dallas fans slap their foreheads and say, “Here we go again”? Because that was timed beautifully. First December game this year, and Dallas does its part by providing a skunk of a game, and it can’t even be blamed on Tony Romo this time. Of course, the Giants won’t make the Cowboys’ collapse easy, in the midst of their own serious breakdown. New York played incredibly well against Green Bay last week, but that kind of heart-wrenching, last-second loss is going to take a serious emotional toll on an already suffering team, which it doesn’t need, heading into a primetime showdown with one of its biggest rivals. Dallas should be able to widen the gap just a bit in the race for the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys: 23-17
St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7):
As long as these two teams have been in the same division (nine years now), they have never been relevant at the same time. Why would you subject us to this game on primetime, ESPN? Why, why, why? Two words: Marshawn Lynch.
Seattle Seahawks: 27-10
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