I’ve got awesome news for you guys, and I know every last one of you will care. Care to hazard a guess? … That’s right. Detroit is still in contention for the NFC North with a win over the Jets today. We all knew it was coming …
OK, so I’m kidding (sort of). But I’ve got plenty of reasons to be excited. As one friend put it, the Pack laid the groundwork on how to shut down the Jets, and if the Lions follow it, they should coast. The Lions offense literally can’t be stopped right now. It’s the fact that they’re giving up almost 25 points a game that’s killing them.
Also, the Titans are on bye this week, so I can spend the next seven days praying that I dreamed the waiver claim. Too bad that part won’t happen.
With that, here’re this week’s picks:
*Week 8: 9-4
*Overall: 39-30
Chicago Bears (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (0-7): The depressing downward spiral of the Bears only gets worse here, I’m afraid. Buffalo has been too close too many times to not be able to pull one out, while Jay Cutler seems to be hanging on by a very thin thread.
As of right now, Mike Martz seems like he’s actually trying to get Cutler killed, and he’s doing a pretty good job. And somehow, Ryan Fitzpatrick (who knew? Better yet, who knows?) has been the spark the Bills have needed to finally put up some points this season.
Bills over Bears: 24-17
New York Jets (5-2) at Detroit Lions (2-5): I’ll be honest: I may have a little fan bias on this one. But I’m looking at a Lions team that is putting up 25 points per game, has only been truly beaten once (Week 3, Minnesota), seems like they’re defense is actually becoming something special, and Detroit’s had an extra week to prepare for a Jets team that looked completely flummoxed by the Pack last week.
I’m not saying I’ve forgotten about Mark Sanchez and his best receiving corps and backfield that money can buy; I’m just saying I think Detroit can score more. And that’s what wins games, my friends.
Lions over Jets: 31-20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (5-2): Raheem Morris truly believes he has the best team in the conference. That’s a lovely sentiment, but the reality is, it has the best schedule in the conference. The Buccaneers are a potential playoff team, and Josh Freeman looks like he’s settled in, but they are not beating Mike Smith, Matt Ryan and co. at home, when first place in the division is on the line.
Falcons over Buccaneers: 24-10
New England Patriots (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-5): You know what’d be really funny? If Brady threw the game-losing interception because he forgot to sweep his hair out of his eyes before the snap. But really, I think the Patriots will struggle. One New England receiver has been able to go off each week, which has saved the offense from exposure, but what happens when a team shuts Welker and Branch down and the unknown backups can’t pick up the slack? We know they can’t fall back on a running game.
Meanwhile, that’s about Cleveland has. If Peyton Hillis were playing for, say, a playoff team, he would probably have 700 yards and 10 TDs right now. He is that good. The best part about Cleveland, though, is that it fights. Detroit and Buffalo aside, this team has probably suffered more close losses than anyone in the league. But occasionally, it’ll be a close win. Plus, I think it’s fun watching the experts struggle with all this “parody” this year.
Browns over Patriots: 34-17 (I didn’t say it would be close, did I?)
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5): I almost said, “Here’s a game that doesn’t matter.” Then I remember the Cardinals are in the NFC West, and it very much does matter. I’m hesitant to say the Cardinals’ motivation will be enough to pull out a win for this one, just because they really have nothing on offense. Occasionally, you’ll get the unexpected performance out of them – like the 30-17 trouncing they put on New Orleans – but this is not a good offensive team.
The biggest weakness for the Vikings, I think, aside from Favre, is their defense right now. It’s not bad, but it certainly isn’t playing up to the level it should be. That being said, Sidney Rice is coming back, and it’s the Cardinals at home. They should survive.
Vikings over Cardinals: 27-20
New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-6): The Saints have a nasty tendency to just get trounced by the awful teams – this is actually a good thing come playoff time, if you think about it – but I think the Panthers are awful enough that this doesn’t matter, especially since the Saints won’t be taking them lightly after their first meeting. Remember how I said for five weeks that I still thought Carolina had playoff potential? Yeah … that’s really all I’ve got to say on that.
Saints over Panthers: 31-17
Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2): I do not understand the Dolphins. How do you 4-0 on the road and 0-3 at home? Maybe the visiting team is so stunned by the women in South Beach that they have extra incentive? Who knows. Either way, ‘Phins are on the road, so it’s moot. The big thing here is that Dan Carpenter is healthy, and Miami’s going to need that leg against a team that historically relies on its kicker.
I think this game comes down to Ray Rice, though. He’s been less than stellar this year, having only one truly great game and scoring both of his touchdowns then. The Ravens have a great receiving corps and Flacco looks solid this year, but if Rice doesn’t get it going, even with McGahee playing well, it’s just hard to see the Ravens putting up enough points to match Miami. Good news is, Rice is due for another good game.
Ravens over Dolphins: 24-19 (Yes, I do think the ‘Phins will kick four field goals.)
San Diego Chargers (3-5) at Houston Texans (4-3): By all accounts, the Chargers should be dead, out of the playoff running. But they do this every year, plus have the No. 1 offense and defense in the NFL right now (explain that one). The problem is, the majority of that No. 1 offense comes in the form of Antonio Gates, who isn’t playing this week. Rivers has made it work with receivers that I bet you couldn’t name even if you watched the Chargers play a week ago, but at Houston, against an offense that can score whichever way it feels like, will be a challenge.
Houston meanwhile, just seems to lack a winner’s mindset. Maybe it’s because this franchise isn’t used to be a contender, but it continues to underperform with the talent it has. This offense should be miles ahead of everyone in the league, and yet Matt Schaub is barely averaging 200 yards per game. The bye week and the home field should help tremendously, but the Texans need to do some serious soul searching.
Texans over Chargers: 28-25
New York Giants (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3): Anybody else out there think all those Giants bandwagoners are going to look hilarious when they fall/jump/dive off that wagon in the coming weeks? Ahmad Bradhsaw is playing out of his mind, yes, and Eli Manning is having a decent year. But let’s keep in mind, I said Eli. You know, choke artist who redefines family of choke artists? (Let’s keep this straight: I love Peyton Manning, but the man can not win big games when it matters.)
Also, I hate enigmas. And the Seahawks are an enigma. They’re not just good at home, bad on the road. They are ridiculously good at home and ridiculously bad on the road. It’s like they forget how to play the second they leave Qwest Field. Lucky for them, they’re at Qwest. And they’re due for another rushing touchdown. Yeah, they have two. For the season. Total. Ew.
Seahawks over Giants: 28-17
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4): I don’t think this game has mattered since it was a big deal that Bo Jackson played football for Oakland and baseball for Kansas City. But New England West – I’m sorry, I mean Kansas City – has built an extremely solid team, thanks to the help of a great coaching staff, a great backfield, and a defense full of young future Pro Bowlers. I said I expected 10-6 from the Chiefs, but even I’m shocked at how well this team is closing out games.
The Raiders, meanwhile, I don’t understand. So they bench Campbell, put up 59 points, bring Campbell back, put up 33 points. Seriously, what the heck? I knew their defense could be shut-down, as long as it focused on the run, but I always assumed that means 17-10 games, not 59-14 ones. Here’s the problem, though: Oakland’s run D is not good, and the last two weeks, it’s faced teams that would struggle to run the ball even with only four guys playing defense.
Kansas City is not that flawed. Look for 350 yards on the ground and for the Raiders to come crashing back down to reality.
Chiefs over Raiders: 34-20
Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-3): I know I said Peyton isn’t clutch, but his talent still irks me. It isn’t fair how somebody minus the nation’s best tight end, using several undrafted or high-round-pick wide receivers can simply keep chugging along at a 4,000-yard-per-season pace. I don’t think Philly will slow him down, but I do think they’re going to leave him bruised and battered.
As for the Eagles, he’s baaaaack. I can’t believe I’m admitting that Vick seems to be legitimate at this point, but what he’s done for this team is unreal. It’s motivated and playing well beyond what its talent level should be accomplished. And here, the team’s at home against Indy. And I think that’s the edge the Eagles are going to need for this week.
Eagles over Colts: 21-17
Dallas Cowboys (1-6) at Green Bay Packers (5-3): It would be funny if Dallas came into Green Bay and shocked the world with a win. And it would keep NBC from trying to put a hit out on Jerry Jones after scheduling this game. But it’s not going to happen. I’ve never a seen a team as talented as this, yet so dysfunctional.
Packers over Cowboys: 34-14
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-5): ESPN is silently considering the same thing as NBC. They were thinking division title implications at this point. As much as Ben Roethlisberger irritates me, it’s hard to argue with how good he makes this team, which was already one of the best in the league without a proven quarterback.
As for Cincinnati, the only trouble they give teams is figuring out how to spell that city (seriously, I misspell it every time). Plus, Roethlisberger gets a chance to seek a little vengeance against the team that swept the Steelers last year, on its own turf. You don’t think the Steelers are drooling a little bit over this one? I do think Palmer and the Bengals will be able to put up some great numbers against Pittsburgh today, but it’s not going to be enough.
Steelers over Bengals: 28-20