NFL Predictions Week 13 - Thanksgiving Edition

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5):

Being a Lions fan, I strongly dislike the fact that Matt Flynn is starting in Aaron Rodgers’ place. He knows the system as well as any other QB the Packers have signed in recent years, and he has a wealth of receiving talent, as well as Eddie Lacy, to help carry the load. The Packers’ defense is still decimated and looking weaker by the week, which bodes well for Reggie Bush, who hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 against Dallas, and for Matthew Stafford, who’s looked shaky at best the last three weeks. However, the Lions has a whole have shown they’re struggling with the immense pressure that comes from leading the division, and this week won’t be any different.

Green Bay Packers: 34-31

 

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5):

The Cowboys have been playing .500 football for about as long as anyone can remember, but they did something they weren’t supposed to do last week: win. The win allows them to keep pace with the red-hot Eagles and gives them a shot at being two games over .500, which hasn’t happened yet this season. Tony Romo’s game-winning drive against New York showed a resolve the Cowboys have been lacking in the last month or so, and he managed to use nearly ever weapon at his disposal, including the almost-invisible Miles Austin. He’ll need that against a Raiders defense that, at times this season, has been lockdown (though have been a few … let’s call them slip-ups). Oakland has also managed to find the perfect formula to control the clock, relying on Matt McGloin to not make mistakes and on Rashard Jennings, and now Darren McFadden, to carry the bulk of the load. The Cowboys should take a step in the right direction today, but it won’t be easy.

Dallas Cowboys: 28-23

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6):

0-4 has to seem like an eternity ago for Steelers fans. For all the flak Mike Tomlin got for his “rules” in Pitt’s locker room, it seems to be working. Aside from a two-game slip to close out October, the Steelers have been nearly unstoppable, dominating the Jets and Ravens with suffocating defense, and assaulting the Bills, Lions and Browns through the air. Ray Rice looks like he got a jump start against Chicago two weeks ago, and Joe Flacco looked incredibly accurate on deep throws against the Jets, but this is a different beast. The Falcons are desperate, but Pittsburgh’s secondary won’t be giving up any wide-open 60-yard looks, and Rice is unlikely to gain much ground against a run defense that has gone from league’s worst to 11^th overall in less than six games.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-16

 

NFL Predictions - Week 12

Here’s one of the more impressive things I’ve ever seen: 11 weeks into the season, all 16 teams are still alive in the AFC race. Fifteen can still earn the 2 seed (yes, Houston’s a little bit unlikely, but it’s still possible), and 14 are within 1.5 games of a playoff spot. That, folks, is crazy. And awesome. The Jets, Ravens and Chargers all blew winnable game, leaving the Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Raiders and Titans still in the race as well. Meanwhile, what was supposed to look like a fairly cemented NFC race has blown into turmoil as well, with the Lions and Niners losing, while the Cardinals and Panthers just keep on winning, leaving six teams in contention for the two wild-card spots. Given all this, pretty much every game matters this weekend, which you have to love three-quarters of the way into the season. So here’s the way things should shape up:

 

Last Week: 11-4

Overall: 106-56-0

 

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8):

So I called the Falcons losing last week, but I didn’t foresee a blowout. I don’t think anyone did, given Bobby Rainey was the starting running back and the Bucs receiving situation is just as poor as the Falcons. But even with Roddy White back, a shaky Tony Gonzalez and Stephen Jackson pair have made it difficult for Matt Ryan to get things together, and the Saints’ stellar secondary is going to make life any easier for him this week. But as badly as the offense has been, the Falcons’ D has been worse. It hasn’t stopped a thing lately, and even at home on a short week, that trend is going to continue against a Saints’ offense that has been methodically destructive since its loss in New York last month.

New Orleans Saints: 31-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6):

I’m not sure which is more surprising: that the Steelers are officially back in the playoff race or that they’re looking to pass the Browns in the division race for the first time this year. While neither team at 2.5 games behind the Bengals is technically out of the division race, these two are realistically focusing on the final wild-card slot. Mike Tomlin has pulled every string and pushed every button to get the aging Steelers’ D to overachieve and Roethlisberger, as he’s done so often in the past, has put the team on his shoulders and simply willed them to victory. The win over Detroit last week was nice, but weather and some questionable decision-making on the Lions’ sidelines were huge factors, and this week they’ll face a Cleveland defense that should be able to shut down Antonio Brown with one guy (Joe Haden). AJ Green was targeted five times last week while Haden guarded him, and Haden had as many catches (two) as Green did. The question of this game comes on the other side of the ball, though. Cleveland’s not going to stop Pitt from putting up around 20 points, so can Jason Campbell face off against a solid pass defense that held Stafford to a near goose egg in the second half last week and put up points? My guess is no.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-17

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4):

I’m looking forward to this matchup. The Bucs are resurgent in recent weeks – though several of their early-season losses looked pretty good as well – and they’ll be going up against an atrocious Detroit secondary that simply can’t stop the pass. The issue there is that without Vincent Jackson, Mike Glennon has no passing attack, and it’s unlikely Bobby Rainey will be able to put up 150 yards and two touchdowns again this week against one of the most fearsome D-lines in the league. Given that Matt Stafford is going to have virtually no trouble picking apart the Bucs’ secondary and Reggie Bush will likely be looking to re-solidify his starting role, the Bucs should be able to keep things interesting, but simply won’t be able to stop the Lions’ firepower.

Detroit Lions: 34-28

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5):

Somehow this game both matters and should be fairly evenly matched. Problem is, Minnesota going into Lambeau with an ailing Adrian Peterson doesn’t exactly seem like a good idea. Scott Tolzien didn’t turn out to be the next Tom Brady, but he also threw for over 300 yards on the road against the Giants, and he and Jarrett Boykin have brought a chemistry to the team that was badly missing for the few quarters that Seneca Wallace started. Add Eddie Lacy into the mix and Minnesota simply has too many challenges to overcome this week.

Green Bay Packers: 31-19

 

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1):

The Chargers should be panicking right now. An incredibly favorable matchup against a Dolphins team that had far too much focus on non-football issues resulted in a loss where the team couldn’t even put two touchdowns on the board. This doesn’t bode well heading into the home stadium of the league’s best defense this week. The Chiefs, for their part, didn’t play terribly in Denver last week; they simply weren’t able to generate enough offense. However, the re-emergence of Dwayne Bowe should allow KC to take some stress off Jamaal Charles, which should allow Alex Smith to move up and down the field much more easily this week. For the Chargers’ part, they’ve focused on heavy usage from Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead in recent weeks and while it hasn’t been ineffective, the team has failed to put up meaningful points. If the Chargers win, they’ll need to do it by finding some soft spots in the Chiefs’ pass defense, which just won’t happen in Arrowhead.

Kansas City Chiefs: 27-20

 

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6):

The Rams may have only won four games this season, but they’ve won three of them in blowout fashion. Coming off a bye week and a 30-point win in Indy, the Bears will be facing a team that’s gotta be one of the most confident in the league. Tavon Austin finally realized his potential, Zac Stacy is simply unstoppable, and the pass defense has actually stepped up significantly in recent weeks. Unfortunately, it’s against the run game that the Rams seem to have problems (see losses to Carolina and Tennessee), and the Bears have about as well-rounded an offense as any in the league. Chicago’s defense has been atrocious recently, but if it comes down to a duel between Stacy and Matt Forte, history favors Forte.

Chicago Bears: 27-23

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5):

Miami managed to squeak by the Chargers last week, but that doesn’t fix any of its outstanding issues. With Pouncey injured, it’s still missing three starting offensive linemen, and will be facing a juggernaut of a defense in Carolina. Additionally, with the Panthers run game looking unstoppable and Cam Newton looking more and more like the elite decision-maker people were expecting, it’ll be hard for the Dolphins to find a way to keep up.

Carolina Panthers: 24-13

 

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6):

Weird State of the Week No. 2: The Jets became the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 weeks of its season. Unfortunately, that’s a streak the Jets really needed to snap at nine. The Ravens got a nice boost from a horrific run defense in Chicago, but despite being forced to a one-dimensional offense thanks to the weather, the Ravens were still able to lead for much of the game last week. Geno Smith, on the other hand, has no such experience on the road (unless we’re counting Atlanta, and nobody counts Atlanta at this point), which will make the Jets’ task doubly hard. The Ravens defense has been stellar at home, and with the recent demotion of Stephen Hill, it’s unlikely New York will find any playmakers to rise up and top the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens: 20-13

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8):

Ew. The one incredibly bright spot of this entire game is Case Keenum, but based on Gary Kubiak’s reaction last week, he doesn’t like shiny toys. Benching Keenum for Matt Schaub in the second half was not only a terrible move, it effectively turned everyone in Houston against both Kubiak and Schaub, permanently. A once-promising Houston franchise is now in turmoil, and Jacksonville, for its terrible team and record, still looks like it actually cares about every game it plays. Unfortunately, as bad as Houston has been, the Jaguars simply do not have the skill to walk into Houston, shut down Andre Johnson and Ben Tate, and be able to rely on Maurice John-Drews and Cecil Shorts to score enough points to win.

Houston Texans: 27-17

 

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (4-6):

The Titans and Raiders are both somehow, miraculously, still in the playoff hunt and thanks to the fact that one has to win (I think. Could be neither one wants to and we get a tie.), one of them will still be in the chase after this week. The Titans at points in this season have shown flashes of greatness, with a lockdown defense that’s been able to step up in critical moments and with Chris Johnson momentarily showing flashes of greatness – this usually follows the O-line showing unexpected flashes of greatness. Unfortunately, the Raiders, aside from the catastrophes at Denver and at home against Philadelphia, have been a solid pass defense all season, and pretty much anyone in the top half of the NFL has been solid at rush defense vs. the Titans this year. The Titans, on the other hand, simply cannot stop the run, which doesn’t bode well against a team that’s found a rebirth with Rashad Jennings. Expect the Raiders to punch it down the Titans’ throats for most of the game.

Oakland Raiders: 23-16

 

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4):

Raise your hand if you had the Colts facing a must-win situation last week in order to keep the Titans out of the hunt for the division crown. Keep that hand raised if you had Arizona in contention for the top wild-card slot 11 games into the season. The Cardinals have been interesting. Save for a gaffe against the Seahawks, Arizona has been a monster at home, shutting down the likes of the high-powered Panthers and Lions, while getting shellacked on the road. Some of it has to do with Carson Palmer actually having time to find the open receiver at home, but a lot more has to do with how this defense performs. In Arizona, the Cardinals’ D has been one of the top in the league. However, the Colts have done an incredible job of picking apart some of the league’s top defenses, and even without Reggie Wayne, should be able to find ways to move the ball. The issue comes with its own defense. While the Colts have struggled to stop the run all year, pass-heavy offenses have been Indy’s Kryptonite, with losses against San Diego, Miami and St. Louis (though this one was more on Tavon Austin than Kellen Clemens). If Carson Palmer can play remotely like his old self this week, the Cardinals should be able to get a half-step closer to the Seahawks.

Arizona Cardinals: 23-20

   

Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6):

Don’t look now, but here come the Giants, winners of four in a row. The Giants have benefited tremendously from scheduling, facing three backup quarterbacks and an injured Terrelle Pryor in the last month, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re now two games out of first and a win over Dallas from being in second-place as well. Whereas the Giants’ secondary has stepped up in second weeks, Dallas’ whole defense, which just keeps getting plagued by the injury bug, has gone in quite the opposite direction, giving up a franchise record in yardage and first downs against the Saints in its last game. Eli Manning has looked sloppy all season, but the addition of Andre Brown gives the Giants a balanced attack that should keep the Cowboys D off-balance. On the other side, though, the Cowboys have to accept that it is not a run-first team. Dallas was able to run effectively against New Orleans, but with a defense that simply can’t stop a thing, that only put the Cowboys in a hole. Look for the Giants to blast the Cowboys here too.

New York Giants: 35-17

 

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3):

You gotta love the NFL’s flex capability – keeping the mediocre Cowboys out of the spotlight and focusing on Manning-Brady for a decade straight now. This game has all the storylines. Wes Welker should be healthy enough to play, Tom Brady has all his weapons back in a must-win situation, and Peyton Manning has to show that the Broncos can actually string up wins against above-.500 teams. The Patriots have the home-field advantage, plus the benefit of a rivalry game, but the defense has far too many holes to cover up. Aqib Talib is the only legitimate shut-down defense they have right now, and Manning simply have too many options on offense for that to matter. Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola should be able to do enough to keep it close but won’t be able to pull out the win.

Denver Broncos: 31-28

 

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7):

I don’t understand what the Redskins have been doing. I get that Mike Shanahan is a run-focused coach who’s adamant that the Skins succeed at it, but even a successful run game was worthless last week against Philadelphia. RGIII struggles to run the read-option the few times the Skins run it, and forcing him to only pass on obvious passing downs has hampered his ability open up the field. However, the slumping 49ers won’t have a cakewalk. San Francisco just hasn’t been able to generate enough offense to pull anything off the last couple weeks, even with the reintroduction of Mario Manningham. A fully healthy Vernon Davis plus the prospect of facing a Swiss-cheese, should help Colin Kaepernick to break out of his slump, but he’ll need to put up three or four touchdowns for the Niners to pull this one out.

San Francisco 49ers: 28-20

NFL Predictions - Week 11

This season has been rough. I don’t remember ever seeing, and the numbers seem to agree, more key players going down for playoff teams than in this season. Crazy things, like two-year backup Nick Foles playing like Peyton Manning or practice-squad QB Scott Tolzien taking the helm of the storied Green Bay franchise, keep happening, and, ya know, it makes these picks really difficult. Then you’ve got lesser-noticed ones like Vernon Davis getting concussed and the entire Niners offense simply shutting down for the rest of the game. Now to top it off, a crazy year gets a crazier week with four games expected to be impacted significantly by weather across the Midwest region. But oh well, it just makes for more excitement down the stretch.

 

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 95-52-0

 

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7):

So it’s an odd week, which means the Jets should win, but it’s a road game, which means the Jets should lose. As strange as this sounds, we’re 11 weeks into the season, and New York has yet to win a game on an even-numbered week lose a game in an odd-numbered. A big problem here has been that Geno Smith simply has not looked good on the road, save a near-perfect performance against Atlanta’s atrocious secondary. That works well for him, considering the Bills’ secondary is just as bad. The severe weather mitigates that advantage somewhat, but Buffalo is missing both of its starting wide receivers, EJ Manuel still doesn’t seem sharp, and New York’s phenomenal run D should be enough to control the Bills at the line of scrimmage, leading to the Jets’ second road win of the season.

New York Jets: 20-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4):

I keep seeing all these “start Ray Rice” posts in fantasy football world, and I have to wonder why? Yes, the Bears’ run defense isn’t good and yes, the weather is going to make a deep passing game incredibly hard, but Ray Rice and the Ravens’ offense hasn’t been slow because it’s been facing incredible defenses (in fact, just the opposite). It’s bad because it’s bad. Baltimore has zero ability to run the ball and the weather today means that, more than likely, it’ll have zero ability to utilize deep threat Torrey Smith. This, plus the fact that Josh McCown is actually healthy, compared to Cutler last week, means the Bears shouldn’t have much trouble rebounding this week.

Chicago Bears: 27-20

 

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4):

Despite a play that clearly showed divine support in the Bengals’ quest to dominate this division, Cincinnati was still able to throw away an overtime game against Baltimore last week, which, strangely enough, keeps every team in this division alive for this week.  Fortunately for Cincinnati, it’s going up against a Browns team that, while competitive, simply can’t seem to win on the road. Eleven weeks into the season, Cleveland has no true standouts – though Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron and Pat Haden are certainly known throughout the league – but a top-10 defense will give Cincinnati issues. Giovani Bernard has been spectacular for the Bengals so far, but look for him to be hemmed in somewhat. Haden should do a decent job of containing AJ Green, but Andy Dalton has looked to good and has developed a rapport with too many weapons to be shut down by the Browns at home.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

 

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5):

This one’s interesting. RGIII gets to face off against yet another spectacularly weak pass defense, Alfred Morris is likely good enough to shred the Eagles run D, and they get this game in Philly, which, surprisingly, is where the Eagles are worst. But Nick Foles’ meteoric rise should temper this somewhat. A healthy Foles and this offense is incredibly hard to keep up with, and RGIII will have to be nearly flawless in order to keep the ball out of the Eagles’ hands long enough for his defense to catch its breath. Philadelphia has the edge in just about every aspect of this game, including defense, but with the crazy nature of the NFC East, look for the Redskins to have found enough of a wrinkle in Philly’s game plan to walk away with a win.

Washington Redskins: 34-28

 

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6):

As a Detroit fan, I can tell you that Lions are riding about as high as they’ve been since the mid-90s. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell looked phenomenal Sunday against the Bears, and even against his toughest defender, Charles Tillman, Calvin Johnson was able to put up yet another phenomenal stat line. That said, there are some serious holes on the defense that Pitt will have a chance to exploit. Pitt absolutely mauled Buffalo last week, managing to shut down Buffalo’s ground game with what was previously seen as one of the league’s weakest run defenses. Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is looking more and more like the elite-level quarterback we saw for so many years, and he’ll have a chance to exploit the Lions’ secondary. Possibly severe weather could take away that advantage, but it works the same way for Detroit, and if both teams have to shift to a power-rushing attack, Detroit just won’t be able to match Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8):

I keep expecting Matt Ryan and Mike Smith to find a way out of this slump, but it seems like this Falcons’ team is too far gone. Roddy White and Steven Jackson are finally healthy again, but there’s no defense on this team, Tony Gonzalez is getting too old and Harry Douglas is now shaken up. Tampa, meanwhile, is starting to play like a real team under Mike Glennon, and he’ll have a great chance to exploit an atrocious Falcons defense and keep the pressure off the Bucs’ weakened running game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-24

 

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8):

I attribute last week’s win against the Titans more to the Titans inability to win the games it should under Mike Munchak (that’s the third season in a row the Titans have lost to the worst team in the league in a late-season matchup) than a sign that the Jaguars are actually capable of winning games. Despite playing from a huge deficit, Ryan Fitzpatrick was nearly unstoppable against a Jaguars’ pass defense that actually ranks in the league’s upper half. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, Arizona’s defense is much better all-around and its offense, though prone to interceptions under Carson Palmer, is much less likely to turn the ball over so much. Look for Andre Ellington to have a field day in leading the Cardinals to a surprising 6-4 record.

Arizona Cardinals: 28-13

 

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7):

Oakland’s job was difficult enough with Terrelle Pryor in this week. The knock on Oakland at season’s start was that it simply didn’t have enough weapons to go toe-to-toe with some of the league’s best, and nothing has changed there. Pryor’s athletic ability was enough to keep defenses in check and allow the likes of Denarius Moore and Rod Streater to consistently find holes in the secondary, but an elite secondary in Houston, coupled with a surging offense led by Case Keenum and Andre Johnson, make this is a nearly impossible game for the Raiders to take.

Houston Texans: 30-16

 

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5):

As much trouble as the Chargers look like they’re in, they have nothing on the Dolphins. Miami is an all-around mess, and with Mike Pouncey out today, the Phins will be missing 60 percent of its starting O-line. Given an inability to run the ball already and Mike Wallace’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act, it’s difficult to see Miami putting up many points. Miami does have a solid secondary, but the Chargers have been determined to run the ball as of late, and this week should be no different, only easier. The Chargers should be able to run away with this one.

San Diego Chargers: 23-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2):

The Niners needed that game against Carolina badly. It’s already unlikely they’ll catch the Seahawks this season, but a loss to the Saints this week puts them not just out of NFC West contention but at risk of losing a Wild Card. Losing Vernon Davis is a disaster for the Niners, even with Mario Manningham back and Michael Crabtree due to return soon, and Davis is unlikely to be 100 percent healthy going up against a ferocious Saints secondary that mauled Dallas last week. The Niners defense is unlikely to give up 600 yards and 40+ points this week, but when “holding” the Saints to 28 would be considered a job well done, and your offense doesn’t have the ability to put up anywhere close to that many, it’s a recipe for disaster.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6):

I’ll go ahead and say it: I don’t think the Pack looked half bad with Scott Tolzien under center. Granted the Eagles’ secondary is awful and they had no tape of Tolzien going into the game, the Tolzien still seems like he’s effective enough to open the field and allow Eddie Lacy to control the pace of the game. Unfortunately, the Packers are facing the Giants at the worst possible time. The return of Andre Brown – and Tom Coughlin’s subsequent, slightly overbearing, gushing – gives the Giants a legitimate two-dimensional threat it hasn’t had all season. New York shut down when it lost David Wilson, but thanks to favorable scheduling, it’s managed to stay alive in the East, and this week should get them one step closer to catching Philly and Dallas.

New York Giants: 23-16

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1):

Christian Ponder’s injured shoulder could be a problem here. The Seahawks were already likely to win, but an injured Ponder means eight to nine guys in the box against Adrian Peterson, which would effectively shut down the Vikings offense, and the Vikings simply are not capable of shutting down opponents. With the added return of Percy Harvin, who no doubt has plenty of motivation to show off against his former team this week, things could get ugly for Minnesota this week.

Seattle Seahawks: 28-14

 

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1):

All this nonsense about how these two teams play such easy schedules. Well first off, they play the AFC South and NFC East this season, and they had no choice in the matter. Second, the two teams play a very similar schedule (only two opponents different outside the division), which means that all those sub-.500 teams basically have two-to-four losses already on their record from these two teams alone. Remove those games and you have four opponents at .500 or better.

 

Now with that out of the way, this is an interesting game. A hobbled Peyton Manning (high-ankle sprain on his right, non-planting foot) can play, but he likely won’t be nearly as effective. Since sustaining an injury against Indianapolis, he’s had trouble throwing the ball downfield, and against a ball-hawking defense like KC’s, that means a lot of his passes may wind up 50-50 balls. Additionally, Denver isn’t exactly great at preventing the pass rush, while the Chiefs are fantastic at getting to the quarterback. Home-field advantage plus too many weapons to take off the table mean that the Broncos should be able to take this one, but it by no means guarantees the eight-point spread Vegas has laid down.

Denver Broncos: 27-23

 

New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3):

Looks like ESPN finally got its Monday Night Football pick right. The surging Panthers, who have won six of seven with five in blowout fashion, will host the Patriots who are simply doing what the Patriots always do. Tom Brady looked fantastic against Pitt before the bye, and his offense is fully healthy for the first time all season, which he’ll need going up against arguably the best defense in the NFL at this point in the season. After knocking Vernon Davis out of the game last week, the Panthers’ defense manhandled San Francisco, holding it to four total yards in the fourth quarter. Four. Given the slate of injuries on this New England defense, plus the power-running ability of the Panthers, the Patriots may put up a few touchdowns, but it’s unlikely to be enough to catch the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers: 23-21

Colts-Titans Prediction - Week 11

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-5):

Pop quiz: Which AFC South team has the longest current winning streak? That’d be the formerly winless Jacksonville Jaguars. Think maybe this division has some issues? The Colts are clearly sitting in the best position, but they look anything but secure. Indianapolis is clearly struggling with the loss of Reggie Wayne, as evidenced by the need of a tremendous second-half comeback against Houston and an eight-point performance (those courtesy of garbage time) in a blowout at home against St. Louis this week. But that’s not the only issue. Tavon Austin gashed Indy just about every way possible, Zac Stacy continued to do Zac Stacy-like things, and Trent Richardson is still waiting for FedEx to ship the athletic ability he left in Cleveland.

 

The good news is, they play the Titans! It’s looking increasingly like Mike Munchak is out. It’s hard to argue that he’s got the makings of a solid football team, but considering that the Titans weren’t exactly in dire straits before his hire, that’s not something he can really lay claim to. For the third straight year, the Titans have allowed the worst team in the NFL to beat them in a late-season game, this time at home against what was, consensus, the worst team since the ’08 Lions. Chris Johnson looks amazing … when he’s not being drowned in 300-lb men. Jake Locker looks effective … when he’s healthy. The Titans defense looks lockdown … when it’s not trying to make up for its offenses mistakes. Both of these teams have a shot at the postseason, and both will be lucky to survive if they actually get there. But there’s one thing Indy has that Tennessee simply can’t match: Andrew Luck.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-17

NFL - Predictions Week 10

Last Week: 8-5

Overall: 87-46-0

 

Seattle Seahawks (8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6):

The Seahawks have been shaky the past couple of weeks, especially in their run game. While it looks like St. Louis simply hosts an absolute beast in Zach Stacy, there’s absolutely no excuse for Seattle’s inability to shut down Tampa Bay’s Mike James at home last week. Meanwhile, Atlanta is coming off an embarrassing beatdown that it really had no explanation for, even with the fact that the Falcons traveled to Carolina to face one of the league’s elites. Stephen Jackson is slowly returning to form, Roddy White should be back, and look for Matt Ryan to bounce back in a big way this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 23-20

 

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3):

Who would’ve thought that the Lions and Bears would be playing for the division lead at this point in the season. Despite a defense that’s looked progressively worse and more incapable of stopping the pass as the season progresses, Detroit has been carried by Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford, like usual. Meanwhile, Chicago is finally getting Jay Cutler back, but given Josh McCown’s play the last couple games, this isn’t really the injury recovery Chicago needs. Fielding half of a starting defense against arguably the most dynamic offense in the NFL is a recipe for disaster, and Detroit should pull away when Chicago’s defense wears down.

Detroit Lions: 34-30

 

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3):

Let’s call a spade a spade here: Seneca Wallace sucks. But for the first time since Aaron Rodgers began his starting career, the Packers’ success doesn’t run through him. Eddie Lacy is a phenomenal young back (with the NFL’s easiest rushing schedule left), while Green Bay sports a pretty good run D of its own and a secondary that, while not elite, is certainly better than anything Nick Foles has faced in his recent starts. However, as strange as it sounds, Philly is a different beast on the road, and it’s going to be difficult for the Packers to be able to handle everything the Eagles throw at them this week.  That said, Green Bay’s running attack should be able to keep a cap on the number of possessions the Eagles earn and keep this game close.

Green Bay Packers: 24-20

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4):

We all know there’s little upside to the Jaguars, who can’t even win the bye week with Justin Blackmon’s suspension, but this is a divisional game between two franchises that used to lead this division annually. Jacksonville should do a good job of keeping this one closer, but the Titans are going to try to fix their running woes, and against Jacksonville, even broken is good enough.

Tennessee Titans: 31-23

 

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2):

As good as Stacy has looked for the Rams, everyone else has looked as bad. Kellen Clemens has plenty of decent targets to spread the ball to, but Austin Pettis, Tavon Austin and Jared Cook have all failed to step up on a consistent basis, which means the Rams will be forced to push the run. Indy has shown that, without exceptional quarterback play, it’s nearly impossible to run the ball on this defense, especially at home, and there’s simply going to be no answer for Andrew Luck and TY Hilton on the other side of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-17

 

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6):

I’m torn on the Giants’ secondary. On the one hand, it’s been absolutely shutdown the last two games, but on the other hand, the quarterbacks in those last two games were a concussed Josh Freeman and an overwhelmed Matt Barkley. My guess is that it’s somewhere along the worse side of the scale, but all the same, Oakland isn’t exactly known for its passing attack. The loss of Darren McFadden (again) also weakens the Raiders ability to push the ball on New York. However, Oakland’s defense is not as bad as Philly made it look last week. While it may have given the Giants a game plan for the week, they’re not going to hang 40 on Oakland.

New York Giants: 27-23

 

Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6):

Pittsburgh’s D is literally the worst in the team’s history. Granted, Pitt has been a historically proud defensive franchise, that’s still an impressive moniker. If not for Jacksonville, we’d likely be talking about just how bad Pitt’s run D is, and Buffalo is known for its slightly talented rushing attack. The problem is, Buffalo’s defense, while much improved, isn’t particularly strong on the ground or through the air, and a week after Ben Roethlisberger threw for 400 yards and with Le’Veon Bell getting consistently heavy workload, it’s going to be hard for Buffalo to control either aspect of Pitt’s offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-17

 

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5):

I don’t want to use the term “freefall” to describe the direction the Ravens are headed just yet, but I would definitely use “falling.” The rushing attack has simply been nonexistent, and there seems to have been no serious effort to fix it over the bye week. Cleveland’s defense has been much improved this season, but it’s not as good as the Bengals defense. On top of that, the Bengals have a shutdown secondary that will likely make Joe Flacco miserable this week. Baltimore’s defense has steadily improved throughout the season, making it harder and harder for opponents to take advantage of Baltimore’s offensive woes. However, the Bengals’ passing attack has been simply ridiculous over the last month, and Giovani Bernard is clearly the dynamic playmaker the Bengals need for 15-20 touches a game. Cincinnati should be able to sneak one out in Baltimore this week.

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2):

Over the last six or so weeks, the Panthers have fielded the absolutely best defense in the NFL, and have won five of those games in absolute blowout fashion. This will be Carolina’s first true road test since Week 5 at Arizona, where it was the throttled team, but Jonathan Stewart’s return has given another dimension to an already stellar rushing attack, and Cam Newton has quietly become an elite passer, making guys like Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn look like legitimate starters. The Niners are coming off a bye week, however, and Colin Kaepernick is following the same rising path that Newton is. Mario Manningham will return this week, and given two weeks to game plan for the Panthers should allow the Niners to escape this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4):

Alright, I think everyone is officially on the Case Keenum train this week after an electrifying dual performance between him and Andre Johnson. That said, Houston’s defense is still atrocious, and Arizona is a different beast at home, having been nearly unbeatable. Andre Ellington gets a juicy matchup on the ground, and Larry Fitzgerald has had an extra week to heal up.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-16

 

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4):

The Chargers have a huge boon in their home-field advantage this week, given how much closer Broncos’ games have been on the road. However, what had been a fairly stout defense up to last week in Washington got gashed by Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon – with a career-high 177 receiving yards – en route to an overtime loss, despite having 1^st down on the 1 with less than 30 seconds to go. It’s going to be even harder for the Chargers to move in short yardage situations against the Von Miller-led front seven of Denver, and the Chargers have to make every possession count, which they’re not going to be able to do.

Denver Broncos: 41-30

 

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2):

For all their talk about how they love Dez Bryant, there’s some kind of underlying issue with the Cowboy passing attack. Despite playing a porous Minnesota defense, neither Terrence Williams nor Bryant were able to break free for any sort of long play. Additionally, with the apparent injury concerns over DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys forced Romo to throw it 51 times last week, which is simply way too much of an imbalance, especially when walking into the Superdome to face a Saints defense that has been on lockdown in the secondary and is headed by Rob Ryan, who knows this Cowboys’ offense well. Additionally, Drew Brees has been a monster at home, and with Jimmy Graham simply incapable of being shut down, it’s hard to imagine Dallas being able to keep up.

New Orleans Saints: 31-23

 

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8):

Talk about a catastrophe going on in Miami right now. Not only will the Dolphins be missing two offensive linemen on an already questionable line, there’s now clearly some issues inside the locker room as well. This comes at a terrible time, as they’re heading in to face a Buccaneers offense that has to be overflowing with confidence with the rise of Mike James and Mike Glennon. Miami’s finally found a rushing game to complement Ryan Tannehill, and the secondary, while susceptible to big plays, has been able to take advantage of any weaknesses by opposing quarterbacks, but it’s unlikely Miami will be bringing its best game with all the issues surrounding the locker room this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 21-17

 

NFL Predictions - Week 9

Last Week: 10-3

Overall: 79-41-0

 

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5):

Here’s the thing about Buffalo: This team has been playing above its record the entire season. Devastating injuries have kept this secondary from being potentially elite, and injuries to literally every starting skill position at some point this season have capped the Bills’ offense. Yet the Bills are 3-5 and have managed to be in nearly every game this season. Home field advantage is a huge boon here, and I really want to say Buffalo has the ability to pull this thing off. The Chiefs defense has settled down somewhat as opposing offenses have started to figure him out, and it’s only a matter of time until Jamaal Charles starts to feel this heavy workload. But here’s another thing: Jeff Tuel will be Buffalo’s starter. I can’t pick Jeff Tuel.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-21

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4):

Minnesota isn’t a good football team, but I think the defensive implosion has kept most people from seeing that this offense could actually have some potential if it simply had steady quarterback play. And Dallas looks like it has some issues. The collapse against Detroit brought out what looked like some serious strife on offense, but the transcripts of Dez Bryant’s outbursts, plus the unity those players had behind the mic, make me think that Dallas will be able to hold it together enough to get by Minnesota.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-20

 

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at St. Louis Rams (3-5):

This is pretty much do-or-die time for both these teams. The top five slots in the AFC seem to be fairly set, but that second wild card is wide open, and .500 is enough to be in consideration for it at this point. The Rams seem to have finally started to figure things out, sadly a week after Sam Bradford tore his ACL, but what had been a porous rushing defense managed to shut down Marshawn Lynch and, if not for a busted pass coverage, would’ve held Russell Wilson to seven points through the air. The Titans, meanwhile, have simply been competitive in almost every game. Jake Locker should be fully healthy, Chris Johnson is finally starting to make plays, and they seem to have finally figured out life without Kenny Britt. That said, San Francisco gashed what had previously been a very good all-around defense, and you have to wonder if they’ll be able to stop the Rams’ newfound rushing attack. My guess is no.

St. Louis Rams: 21-17

 

New Orleans Saints (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4):

The Jets are a completely different team at home from what they are on the road. Geno Smith seems more comfortable, the run game actually gets going, and even the Jets’ questionable secondary seems to take a step up. The problem is, they get the nearly unstoppable saints this week. A very good secondary means that the Jets will have to rely on an iffy ground game and another breakout performance from Geno Smith to keep up with Drew Brees and his troops, and that’s not going to happen.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5):

So San Diego’s defense hasn’t yielded a touchdown in 11 quarters. Considering how iffy this defense has been for several years, and even in the first half of this season, that’s quite a feat, and it’s something Philip Rivers needs. Rivers doesn’t have many elite playmakers just yet, and being able to rely on a solid defense keeps him from feeling forced to make plays. That said, Washington’s offense has slowly been improving the past few weeks, with the emergence of Jordan Reed and Roy Helu. A second-half meltdown was the only thing that prevented Washington from at least staying close with Denver in Mile High last week. Look for the Redskins to pull off another mild shocker at home.

Washington Redskins: 31-27

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3):

It’s shocking to me how fast the bottom has fallen out for the Falcons. And it’s hard to pin this record on injuries, since Atlanta could conceivably have been undefeated before Julio Jones and Roddy White both went down. The loss of Stephen Jackson certainly hurt the run game, but Jacquizz Rodgers did what he needed to fill the void in Jackson’s absence.  Unfortunately, there’s been a clear shift in the power of the NFC South, as the Panthers defense is now bordering on elite status, and Cam Newton is efficiently guiding an offense that, while not spectacular, is solid enough to outscore its opponents. It’s time to write the Falcons off for the season.

Carolina Panthers: 28-23

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4):

This is probably the most interesting matchup of the week, with a Raiders team that no one had going anywhere this season facing off against an offense that was supposed to revolutionize the NFL. Terrelle Pryor has looked like he’ll be an NFL starter for years to come, the Raiders defense has continued to make small steps, and a healthy Darren McFadden mean that this team will have a plethora of options to face off against a poor Philadelphia defense. The Eagles, meanwhile, can’t find consistency at quarterback. Nick Foles is doubtless a better option than Matt Barkley, but Oakland’s secondary is much better than Tampa Bay, and it’s doubtful that he’ll manage to shred this one.

Oakland Raiders: 31-23

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1):

This is just gonna be bad. The Bucs are moving forward with Mike Glennon, but what looked like a potentially solid defense has fallen apart, and the lack of Doug Martin is going to make this incredibly difficult for Tampa Bay to have any hope in this game. Look for the Seahawks, especially Marshawn Lynch, to bounce back in a big way.

Seattle Seahawks: 34-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-5):

The Ravens have to have figured out their running woes over the bye week, or this is going to be a long second half. Joe Flacco has been struggling against average secondaries (see: Buffalo) and has been downright terrible versus good ones (see: Pittsburgh). Cleveland is a good quarterback/running back away from being a darkhorse playoff candidate, and the Browns know this. Jason Campbell did enough to keep the Browns in the game against the NFL’s best team, and he should be able to fine some more holes in this Baltimore offense.

Cleveland Browns: 20-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2):

The more I look at this Patriots team, the more surprised I am that it’s 6-2. But it’s games like this that are keeping the Patriots afloat. The Steelers are slowly coming together, but there’s still a horrible run defense and a piecemeal offensive line that simply don’t seem like they can be fixed this season. Tom Brady clearly needs a couple more weeks to get his hand healthy, and this game couldn’t have come at a better time. Look for Brandon Bolden and Stevan Ridley to carry the Patriots through here.

New England Patriots: 23-16

 

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5):

I know we have a one-game sample size, but I think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for this Texans team. Case Keenum isn’t spectacularly, but never was Matt Schaub either, and he has the added advantage of not having to overcome mental issues in this start. The Texans desperately need Arian Foster in this game to have a shot at keeping up with the Colts, though. Indy will struggle without Reggie Wayne, as Andrew Luck has already had trouble getting the passing game going this season even with him, but Houston’s secondary tends to struggle against elite passers. That said, Houston’s defense won’t have to do nearly as much as usual, which should give this squad, which is still very talented, the ability to pull off a surprise win.

Houston Texans: 23-20

 

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-2):

So this is pretty much a scrimmage. On one side, it’s Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and everyone else vs. … um… everyone else on the Bears defense. On the other, it’s Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte and everyone else versus a solid Green Bay defense that has steadily improved over the past few weeks. Chicago should still be able to move the ball somewhat, but it’s going to find it too hard to keep up with Rodgers’ ability.

Green Bay Packers: 34-24