NFL Predictions - Week 12

Here’s one of the more impressive things I’ve ever seen: 11 weeks into the season, all 16 teams are still alive in the AFC race. Fifteen can still earn the 2 seed (yes, Houston’s a little bit unlikely, but it’s still possible), and 14 are within 1.5 games of a playoff spot. That, folks, is crazy. And awesome. The Jets, Ravens and Chargers all blew winnable game, leaving the Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Raiders and Titans still in the race as well. Meanwhile, what was supposed to look like a fairly cemented NFC race has blown into turmoil as well, with the Lions and Niners losing, while the Cardinals and Panthers just keep on winning, leaving six teams in contention for the two wild-card spots. Given all this, pretty much every game matters this weekend, which you have to love three-quarters of the way into the season. So here’s the way things should shape up:

 

Last Week: 11-4

Overall: 106-56-0

 

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8):

So I called the Falcons losing last week, but I didn’t foresee a blowout. I don’t think anyone did, given Bobby Rainey was the starting running back and the Bucs receiving situation is just as poor as the Falcons. But even with Roddy White back, a shaky Tony Gonzalez and Stephen Jackson pair have made it difficult for Matt Ryan to get things together, and the Saints’ stellar secondary is going to make life any easier for him this week. But as badly as the offense has been, the Falcons’ D has been worse. It hasn’t stopped a thing lately, and even at home on a short week, that trend is going to continue against a Saints’ offense that has been methodically destructive since its loss in New York last month.

New Orleans Saints: 31-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6):

I’m not sure which is more surprising: that the Steelers are officially back in the playoff race or that they’re looking to pass the Browns in the division race for the first time this year. While neither team at 2.5 games behind the Bengals is technically out of the division race, these two are realistically focusing on the final wild-card slot. Mike Tomlin has pulled every string and pushed every button to get the aging Steelers’ D to overachieve and Roethlisberger, as he’s done so often in the past, has put the team on his shoulders and simply willed them to victory. The win over Detroit last week was nice, but weather and some questionable decision-making on the Lions’ sidelines were huge factors, and this week they’ll face a Cleveland defense that should be able to shut down Antonio Brown with one guy (Joe Haden). AJ Green was targeted five times last week while Haden guarded him, and Haden had as many catches (two) as Green did. The question of this game comes on the other side of the ball, though. Cleveland’s not going to stop Pitt from putting up around 20 points, so can Jason Campbell face off against a solid pass defense that held Stafford to a near goose egg in the second half last week and put up points? My guess is no.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-17

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4):

I’m looking forward to this matchup. The Bucs are resurgent in recent weeks – though several of their early-season losses looked pretty good as well – and they’ll be going up against an atrocious Detroit secondary that simply can’t stop the pass. The issue there is that without Vincent Jackson, Mike Glennon has no passing attack, and it’s unlikely Bobby Rainey will be able to put up 150 yards and two touchdowns again this week against one of the most fearsome D-lines in the league. Given that Matt Stafford is going to have virtually no trouble picking apart the Bucs’ secondary and Reggie Bush will likely be looking to re-solidify his starting role, the Bucs should be able to keep things interesting, but simply won’t be able to stop the Lions’ firepower.

Detroit Lions: 34-28

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5):

Somehow this game both matters and should be fairly evenly matched. Problem is, Minnesota going into Lambeau with an ailing Adrian Peterson doesn’t exactly seem like a good idea. Scott Tolzien didn’t turn out to be the next Tom Brady, but he also threw for over 300 yards on the road against the Giants, and he and Jarrett Boykin have brought a chemistry to the team that was badly missing for the few quarters that Seneca Wallace started. Add Eddie Lacy into the mix and Minnesota simply has too many challenges to overcome this week.

Green Bay Packers: 31-19

 

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1):

The Chargers should be panicking right now. An incredibly favorable matchup against a Dolphins team that had far too much focus on non-football issues resulted in a loss where the team couldn’t even put two touchdowns on the board. This doesn’t bode well heading into the home stadium of the league’s best defense this week. The Chiefs, for their part, didn’t play terribly in Denver last week; they simply weren’t able to generate enough offense. However, the re-emergence of Dwayne Bowe should allow KC to take some stress off Jamaal Charles, which should allow Alex Smith to move up and down the field much more easily this week. For the Chargers’ part, they’ve focused on heavy usage from Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead in recent weeks and while it hasn’t been ineffective, the team has failed to put up meaningful points. If the Chargers win, they’ll need to do it by finding some soft spots in the Chiefs’ pass defense, which just won’t happen in Arrowhead.

Kansas City Chiefs: 27-20

 

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6):

The Rams may have only won four games this season, but they’ve won three of them in blowout fashion. Coming off a bye week and a 30-point win in Indy, the Bears will be facing a team that’s gotta be one of the most confident in the league. Tavon Austin finally realized his potential, Zac Stacy is simply unstoppable, and the pass defense has actually stepped up significantly in recent weeks. Unfortunately, it’s against the run game that the Rams seem to have problems (see losses to Carolina and Tennessee), and the Bears have about as well-rounded an offense as any in the league. Chicago’s defense has been atrocious recently, but if it comes down to a duel between Stacy and Matt Forte, history favors Forte.

Chicago Bears: 27-23

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5):

Miami managed to squeak by the Chargers last week, but that doesn’t fix any of its outstanding issues. With Pouncey injured, it’s still missing three starting offensive linemen, and will be facing a juggernaut of a defense in Carolina. Additionally, with the Panthers run game looking unstoppable and Cam Newton looking more and more like the elite decision-maker people were expecting, it’ll be hard for the Dolphins to find a way to keep up.

Carolina Panthers: 24-13

 

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6):

Weird State of the Week No. 2: The Jets became the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 weeks of its season. Unfortunately, that’s a streak the Jets really needed to snap at nine. The Ravens got a nice boost from a horrific run defense in Chicago, but despite being forced to a one-dimensional offense thanks to the weather, the Ravens were still able to lead for much of the game last week. Geno Smith, on the other hand, has no such experience on the road (unless we’re counting Atlanta, and nobody counts Atlanta at this point), which will make the Jets’ task doubly hard. The Ravens defense has been stellar at home, and with the recent demotion of Stephen Hill, it’s unlikely New York will find any playmakers to rise up and top the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens: 20-13

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8):

Ew. The one incredibly bright spot of this entire game is Case Keenum, but based on Gary Kubiak’s reaction last week, he doesn’t like shiny toys. Benching Keenum for Matt Schaub in the second half was not only a terrible move, it effectively turned everyone in Houston against both Kubiak and Schaub, permanently. A once-promising Houston franchise is now in turmoil, and Jacksonville, for its terrible team and record, still looks like it actually cares about every game it plays. Unfortunately, as bad as Houston has been, the Jaguars simply do not have the skill to walk into Houston, shut down Andre Johnson and Ben Tate, and be able to rely on Maurice John-Drews and Cecil Shorts to score enough points to win.

Houston Texans: 27-17

 

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (4-6):

The Titans and Raiders are both somehow, miraculously, still in the playoff hunt and thanks to the fact that one has to win (I think. Could be neither one wants to and we get a tie.), one of them will still be in the chase after this week. The Titans at points in this season have shown flashes of greatness, with a lockdown defense that’s been able to step up in critical moments and with Chris Johnson momentarily showing flashes of greatness – this usually follows the O-line showing unexpected flashes of greatness. Unfortunately, the Raiders, aside from the catastrophes at Denver and at home against Philadelphia, have been a solid pass defense all season, and pretty much anyone in the top half of the NFL has been solid at rush defense vs. the Titans this year. The Titans, on the other hand, simply cannot stop the run, which doesn’t bode well against a team that’s found a rebirth with Rashad Jennings. Expect the Raiders to punch it down the Titans’ throats for most of the game.

Oakland Raiders: 23-16

 

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4):

Raise your hand if you had the Colts facing a must-win situation last week in order to keep the Titans out of the hunt for the division crown. Keep that hand raised if you had Arizona in contention for the top wild-card slot 11 games into the season. The Cardinals have been interesting. Save for a gaffe against the Seahawks, Arizona has been a monster at home, shutting down the likes of the high-powered Panthers and Lions, while getting shellacked on the road. Some of it has to do with Carson Palmer actually having time to find the open receiver at home, but a lot more has to do with how this defense performs. In Arizona, the Cardinals’ D has been one of the top in the league. However, the Colts have done an incredible job of picking apart some of the league’s top defenses, and even without Reggie Wayne, should be able to find ways to move the ball. The issue comes with its own defense. While the Colts have struggled to stop the run all year, pass-heavy offenses have been Indy’s Kryptonite, with losses against San Diego, Miami and St. Louis (though this one was more on Tavon Austin than Kellen Clemens). If Carson Palmer can play remotely like his old self this week, the Cardinals should be able to get a half-step closer to the Seahawks.

Arizona Cardinals: 23-20

   

Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6):

Don’t look now, but here come the Giants, winners of four in a row. The Giants have benefited tremendously from scheduling, facing three backup quarterbacks and an injured Terrelle Pryor in the last month, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re now two games out of first and a win over Dallas from being in second-place as well. Whereas the Giants’ secondary has stepped up in second weeks, Dallas’ whole defense, which just keeps getting plagued by the injury bug, has gone in quite the opposite direction, giving up a franchise record in yardage and first downs against the Saints in its last game. Eli Manning has looked sloppy all season, but the addition of Andre Brown gives the Giants a balanced attack that should keep the Cowboys D off-balance. On the other side, though, the Cowboys have to accept that it is not a run-first team. Dallas was able to run effectively against New Orleans, but with a defense that simply can’t stop a thing, that only put the Cowboys in a hole. Look for the Giants to blast the Cowboys here too.

New York Giants: 35-17

 

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3):

You gotta love the NFL’s flex capability – keeping the mediocre Cowboys out of the spotlight and focusing on Manning-Brady for a decade straight now. This game has all the storylines. Wes Welker should be healthy enough to play, Tom Brady has all his weapons back in a must-win situation, and Peyton Manning has to show that the Broncos can actually string up wins against above-.500 teams. The Patriots have the home-field advantage, plus the benefit of a rivalry game, but the defense has far too many holes to cover up. Aqib Talib is the only legitimate shut-down defense they have right now, and Manning simply have too many options on offense for that to matter. Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola should be able to do enough to keep it close but won’t be able to pull out the win.

Denver Broncos: 31-28

 

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7):

I don’t understand what the Redskins have been doing. I get that Mike Shanahan is a run-focused coach who’s adamant that the Skins succeed at it, but even a successful run game was worthless last week against Philadelphia. RGIII struggles to run the read-option the few times the Skins run it, and forcing him to only pass on obvious passing downs has hampered his ability open up the field. However, the slumping 49ers won’t have a cakewalk. San Francisco just hasn’t been able to generate enough offense to pull anything off the last couple weeks, even with the reintroduction of Mario Manningham. A fully healthy Vernon Davis plus the prospect of facing a Swiss-cheese, should help Colin Kaepernick to break out of his slump, but he’ll need to put up three or four touchdowns for the Niners to pull this one out.

San Francisco 49ers: 28-20