NFL Predictions - Week 9

Last Week: 10-3

Overall: 79-41-0

 

Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5):

Here’s the thing about Buffalo: This team has been playing above its record the entire season. Devastating injuries have kept this secondary from being potentially elite, and injuries to literally every starting skill position at some point this season have capped the Bills’ offense. Yet the Bills are 3-5 and have managed to be in nearly every game this season. Home field advantage is a huge boon here, and I really want to say Buffalo has the ability to pull this thing off. The Chiefs defense has settled down somewhat as opposing offenses have started to figure him out, and it’s only a matter of time until Jamaal Charles starts to feel this heavy workload. But here’s another thing: Jeff Tuel will be Buffalo’s starter. I can’t pick Jeff Tuel.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-21

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4):

Minnesota isn’t a good football team, but I think the defensive implosion has kept most people from seeing that this offense could actually have some potential if it simply had steady quarterback play. And Dallas looks like it has some issues. The collapse against Detroit brought out what looked like some serious strife on offense, but the transcripts of Dez Bryant’s outbursts, plus the unity those players had behind the mic, make me think that Dallas will be able to hold it together enough to get by Minnesota.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-20

 

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at St. Louis Rams (3-5):

This is pretty much do-or-die time for both these teams. The top five slots in the AFC seem to be fairly set, but that second wild card is wide open, and .500 is enough to be in consideration for it at this point. The Rams seem to have finally started to figure things out, sadly a week after Sam Bradford tore his ACL, but what had been a porous rushing defense managed to shut down Marshawn Lynch and, if not for a busted pass coverage, would’ve held Russell Wilson to seven points through the air. The Titans, meanwhile, have simply been competitive in almost every game. Jake Locker should be fully healthy, Chris Johnson is finally starting to make plays, and they seem to have finally figured out life without Kenny Britt. That said, San Francisco gashed what had previously been a very good all-around defense, and you have to wonder if they’ll be able to stop the Rams’ newfound rushing attack. My guess is no.

St. Louis Rams: 21-17

 

New Orleans Saints (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4):

The Jets are a completely different team at home from what they are on the road. Geno Smith seems more comfortable, the run game actually gets going, and even the Jets’ questionable secondary seems to take a step up. The problem is, they get the nearly unstoppable saints this week. A very good secondary means that the Jets will have to rely on an iffy ground game and another breakout performance from Geno Smith to keep up with Drew Brees and his troops, and that’s not going to happen.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5):

So San Diego’s defense hasn’t yielded a touchdown in 11 quarters. Considering how iffy this defense has been for several years, and even in the first half of this season, that’s quite a feat, and it’s something Philip Rivers needs. Rivers doesn’t have many elite playmakers just yet, and being able to rely on a solid defense keeps him from feeling forced to make plays. That said, Washington’s offense has slowly been improving the past few weeks, with the emergence of Jordan Reed and Roy Helu. A second-half meltdown was the only thing that prevented Washington from at least staying close with Denver in Mile High last week. Look for the Redskins to pull off another mild shocker at home.

Washington Redskins: 31-27

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3):

It’s shocking to me how fast the bottom has fallen out for the Falcons. And it’s hard to pin this record on injuries, since Atlanta could conceivably have been undefeated before Julio Jones and Roddy White both went down. The loss of Stephen Jackson certainly hurt the run game, but Jacquizz Rodgers did what he needed to fill the void in Jackson’s absence.  Unfortunately, there’s been a clear shift in the power of the NFC South, as the Panthers defense is now bordering on elite status, and Cam Newton is efficiently guiding an offense that, while not spectacular, is solid enough to outscore its opponents. It’s time to write the Falcons off for the season.

Carolina Panthers: 28-23

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4):

This is probably the most interesting matchup of the week, with a Raiders team that no one had going anywhere this season facing off against an offense that was supposed to revolutionize the NFL. Terrelle Pryor has looked like he’ll be an NFL starter for years to come, the Raiders defense has continued to make small steps, and a healthy Darren McFadden mean that this team will have a plethora of options to face off against a poor Philadelphia defense. The Eagles, meanwhile, can’t find consistency at quarterback. Nick Foles is doubtless a better option than Matt Barkley, but Oakland’s secondary is much better than Tampa Bay, and it’s doubtful that he’ll manage to shred this one.

Oakland Raiders: 31-23

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1):

This is just gonna be bad. The Bucs are moving forward with Mike Glennon, but what looked like a potentially solid defense has fallen apart, and the lack of Doug Martin is going to make this incredibly difficult for Tampa Bay to have any hope in this game. Look for the Seahawks, especially Marshawn Lynch, to bounce back in a big way.

Seattle Seahawks: 34-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-5):

The Ravens have to have figured out their running woes over the bye week, or this is going to be a long second half. Joe Flacco has been struggling against average secondaries (see: Buffalo) and has been downright terrible versus good ones (see: Pittsburgh). Cleveland is a good quarterback/running back away from being a darkhorse playoff candidate, and the Browns know this. Jason Campbell did enough to keep the Browns in the game against the NFL’s best team, and he should be able to fine some more holes in this Baltimore offense.

Cleveland Browns: 20-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2):

The more I look at this Patriots team, the more surprised I am that it’s 6-2. But it’s games like this that are keeping the Patriots afloat. The Steelers are slowly coming together, but there’s still a horrible run defense and a piecemeal offensive line that simply don’t seem like they can be fixed this season. Tom Brady clearly needs a couple more weeks to get his hand healthy, and this game couldn’t have come at a better time. Look for Brandon Bolden and Stevan Ridley to carry the Patriots through here.

New England Patriots: 23-16

 

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5):

I know we have a one-game sample size, but I think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for this Texans team. Case Keenum isn’t spectacularly, but never was Matt Schaub either, and he has the added advantage of not having to overcome mental issues in this start. The Texans desperately need Arian Foster in this game to have a shot at keeping up with the Colts, though. Indy will struggle without Reggie Wayne, as Andrew Luck has already had trouble getting the passing game going this season even with him, but Houston’s secondary tends to struggle against elite passers. That said, Houston’s defense won’t have to do nearly as much as usual, which should give this squad, which is still very talented, the ability to pull off a surprise win.

Houston Texans: 23-20

 

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-2):

So this is pretty much a scrimmage. On one side, it’s Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and everyone else vs. … um… everyone else on the Bears defense. On the other, it’s Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte and everyone else versus a solid Green Bay defense that has steadily improved over the past few weeks. Chicago should still be able to move the ball somewhat, but it’s going to find it too hard to keep up with Rodgers’ ability.

Green Bay Packers: 34-24