Week 8 NFL Predictions

For about three hours last Sunday, it looked like Week 7 was well on its way to being the most boring week of the season. Then a few things started to happen. The Jets woke up; Matt Ryan became Mr. Incredible; Josh Freeman was Josh Freeman; DeMarco Murray said “Hey” to the NFL; and of course, then there was Tebow. Nobody personified that week better. With Miami beating Denver 15-0 with about 7 minutes remaining, I tweeted, “Can we put the Tebow issue to rest now?” Of course he doesn’t make things that easy. For 54 minutes, 30 seconds, Tebow looked exactly like what everybody expected from a third-string quarterback. For the next 10 minutes or so, he looked exactly like John Elway, making plays with his legs and fitting passes into places a football had no place fitting. Of course, as bipolar as this week was, it did have some upside: I beat every ESPN.com expert on picks this week. Sure, even a broken clock is right twice a day, but it’s still a good feeling. Anyway, onto Week 8.

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 48-23

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1):

I get grief from a friend (Niners fan) every week, because I keep saying that I expect San Fran to win its division, but I always pick against the 49ers. Well, this one gets the top slot, because I’m finally putting my money where my mouth is. San Francisco’s had an extra week to settle down from the emotion (and John Harbaugh sure had a lot of it) of knocking off an unbeaten. Alex Smith looks like a QB reborn, and the Patrick Willis-led defense is looking monstrous right now. Cleveland’s experience a renaissance – it can’t be a resurgence since this Cleveland team was never good, so what else do I call it? – under Colt McCoy and Pat Shurmur; in fact, these two teams are using an incredibly similar formula for their current success. But, San Francisco is doing it better.

San Francisco 49ers: 24-16

Indianapolis Colts (0-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-3):

One of two things can happen after a blowout loss: It will either break a team’s spirit, ruining it for the season, or it will serve as motivation to turn the team around. We’re guaranteed a little of both this week, as these two were outscored by a combined 103-14 last week. That’s just nasty. What’s nastier is that Indianapolis can’t be expecting much better for the rest of the season. The Titans were embarrassed at home and have a chance to redeem themselves against the worst team in the AFC. Think Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Johnson and Nate Washington all lay an egg again this week? Indy’s only hope is to match the Titans with Curtis Painter and Co., which just won’t happen.

Tennessee Titans: 34-10

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4):

I’m gonna go ahead and admit it: I have no idea how to call this Broncos team. The defense has played one good game (and Tebow almost blew it), and the offense is clearly nothing without good quarterback play. Question is, which Tebow shows up and for how long? The Lions, meanwhile, are facing a skid that looks eerily similar to recent years’ performances. If the Lions have any chance of getting back on track, Matt Stafford has to regain his composure and start playing a full 60 minutes and stop forcing the defense to make plays to keep games winnable. Detroit should turn things around here, but of course, that’s assuming Tebow doesn’t stop Tebowing long enough to score points.

Detroit Lions: 23-17

New Orleans Saints (5-2) at St. Louis Rams (0-6):

New Orleans could probably hear the collective gulp that came from St. Louis when the Saints left the Superdome last week. Now, Sam Bradford is officially ruled out for this week, and there’s a good chance everyone in St. Louis, Rams included, will still be hung over from the World Series celebration. Drew Brees should have fun tossing a half-dozen more TD passes.

New Orleans Saints: 37-7

Miami Dolphins (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2):

How do the Dolphins provide an encore for last week’s epic performance? My guess: They lay an egg against the Giants, who’ve had a bye to game plan for … this? Miami is struggling in every aspect right now, and New York should have no trouble controlling this one from start to finish.

New York Giants: 28-10

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (2-5):

The records for this game are misleading. Vikings fans have to feel great about their future right now, and Carolina just watched the Panthers put together a full game that didn’t involve Cam Newton having to throw for 450 yards and 5 TDs to pull out a win. Minnesota may have the edge on defense, with its characteristically stout run D near the top of the league, but with the diversity Newton provides on offense, while Carolina’s defense seems to make every passer look as good as Newton right now. It’ll be a track meet, but edge goes to Carolina.

Carolina Panthers: 35-31

Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2):

I think this is the first time I’ve ever accidentally skipped a game. Oh well. Baltimore is busy defining the team that plays to its competition’s level this season. The Ravens are as good as any, but their losses (Tennessee, Jacksonville) are pretty ugly. Fortunately, an Arizona win falls into that category. Unfortunately, Arizona has the bad timing to travel to Baltimore a week after one of those horrible losses.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-10

Washington Redskins (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-2):

I don’t like the John Beck move from the Redskins. True, Rex Grossman is about as polarized as a starting quarterback can be, he still provides the best chance to win that the Skins have. Coach Mike Shanahan has turned this defense around, seemingly overnight, but it can’t be called upon to overcome every mistake Beck makes, made obvious by last Sunday’s loss in Carolina. Buffalo continues to look like a whole new team, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is just what a coach dreams about … if he has other playmakers. Which he does, in Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson. Give a Harvard grad a bye week to prepare for a defense – even one as good as Washington’s – and betting against Fitzpatrick just doesn’t seem like a good one.

Buffalo Bills: 24-13

New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2):

I love these games. Immovable object meets irresistible force. Strangely, while the Patriots’ offense finally looks beatable and Wes Welker seems almost mortal, the defense seems like it’s found its groove. It did so at a good time. Pittsburgh’s offense seems to have everything covered except QB coverage, and New England is gonna have to hammer Ben Roethlisberger if it hopes to slow him down. And while I’m not buying this whole Steelers-are-showing-their-age-on-defense thing, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick coming off a bye week simply don’t lose, and it’s going to be more than Harrison, Polamalu (if he’s healthy) can handle.

New England Patriots: 37-28

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4):

As weird as it is to think it, Seattle simply isn’t the same team without Tarvaris Jackson under center. He’s taking snaps this week, but he’s not a guaranteed lock for the Seahawks. A healthy Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice mean a potent offense, but with as many dings between the three, this Bengals defense should have a field day. Cinci is on the road, but Qwest Field isn’t exactly known for its homefield advantage. Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Co. should be able to put up just enough points to keep this unexpected season a little more thrilling.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4):

How good did DeMarco Murray look in his NFL debut? Well, he’s outrushed Chris Johnson for the season. There’s that. If indeed it turns out that Murray’s performance wasn’t a fluke, Dallas will more than likely welcome the prospect of the NFC’s best offense. I’m not sold, however, on Rob Ryan’s defense. Tony Romo has done what he can to help these second half collapses, but it’s the defense giving up multi-score leads. A game is 60 minutes, not 30, and Ryan needs to prove his defense can play that long. And sadly, as bad as the Eagles have looked recently, they’re still not out of the NFC East race. If Vick manages to play through a full game this offense can run with anyone. If LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson keep making plays where they need to, things will turn around for Philly. Coming off a bye, odds are, the Eagles won’t look any healthier than they do this week.

Philadelphia Eagles: 27-21

San Diego Chargers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3):

As recently as eight days ago, this division seemed like a two-team race. Then KC walloped Oakland at home and San Diego laid a second-half egg against the Jets. I said earlier in the year that, St. Louis aside, no team had more issues to deal with than the Chiefs, and it looks like they’re just now coming into form. Jackie Battle isn’t Jamaal Charles, but he’s getting the job done, and Matt Cassel is improving every game. The defense isn’t the same with Eric Berry out for the season, but it’s clearly learned to survive without him. That said, it survived against an Oakland offense rotating between two clueless QBs. Philip Rivers is far from clueless, and he has much better weapons. Add to that that Ryan Matthews seems to keep taking every team by surprise this season, and you’ve got a formula that’s going to make KC’s run at defending its division title that much harder.

San Diego Chargers: 24-17

Week 7 NFL Predictions

Well, last week, I made the mistake of convincing myself that I would write this while I was on break. I was wrong. So the new goal is to get this one done before I leave for the weekend. That should work better.

Anyway, this week was a little boring. The Tim Tebow and Christian Ponder eras seem to have officially begun, the Dolphins, Rams and Colts continue their furious race for Andrew Luck, and while some may have been disappointed, I don’t think anyone was surprised that the Niners knocked the Lions from the ranks of the unbeatens. Of course, then you have the post-game handshake. I don’t understand the NFL’s logic in not fining Jim Schwartz or John Harbaugh, but when the leaders of two teams that may well be the faces of your league for the near future come inches from physical conflict, something has to be done. The NFL made a mistake in not punishing the coaches, and the coaches are making a mistake in acting like children, rather than manning up and apologizing. That being said, let’s get on to Week 7. It’s not just new QBs that are mixing things up this week.

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 39-19

Houstan Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2):

I didn’t have the chance to do more than checking the score on the Texans-Ravens game last week, but from the looks of it, Baltimore had things wrapped up against Houston for most of the game. That’s not surprising, given that Houston’s one offensive danger right now (Arian Foster) was going up against Baltimore’s strongest aspect (run defense). Houston faces a similar situation here. Tennessee may still be struggling to figure its offense out, but the defense seems to be having no issues, and another week without Andre Johnson in an opponent’s stadium is going to knock Houston back in the AFC South race even further. The Texans aren’t out of that race just yet … they’re just not in it right now, either.

Tennessee Titans: 24-17

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1):

Both teams have to be looking at this game as a must-win. The Falcons have to prove they can get back on track inside their division, and the Lions need to take at least one-of-two in this two-game stretch to show that this isn’t a repeat of 2007. Matt Stafford has to get over himself, though. He’s looked jittery in nearly every first half this season, and after registering the safety last week, he couldn’t seem to make up his mind about what to do next. The Falcons’ D should offer a lighter test than last week, but he’ll still feel pressure. Atlanta’s defense has to perform, though. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been getting the job done on offense, but they simply cannot win when they have to score 35 points per game, especially when they’re walking into Ford Field and Ndamukong Suh and Co. are going to be chasing Ryan all day long.

Detroit Lions: 28-17

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3):

This could very well be the battle for the last chance to have a .500 record for these two. Thanks to a surprising start by the 49ers, both teams seem all but eliminated from playoff contention and are now just trying to be respectable. The Seahawks’ newfound passing attack, aided by a healthy Sidney Rice and previously unknown Doug Baldwin – seriously, nfl.com doesn’t even have a profile page on this game – looks dangerous at times. Cleveland, on the other hand, has managed to field a fairly effective defense, while an offense that looked just a little talent away from exploding last year is now sputtering along. As evenly matched as these two teams are, though, edge has to the home-field advantage and a, hopefully, now-healthy running back tandem in Cleveland.

Cleveland Browns: 21-20

Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5):

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say Denver did this on purpose. Tebow will be recording his first start just a few miles south of where he helped lead Florida to two national championships in college. Odds are, half the fans at Sun Life Stadium will be there to watch Tebow, not the Phins. The Broncos lost Brandon Lloyd to a trade during the week, which will hurt, but Miami can’t know exactly what to expect from Denver’s offense this week. The Broncos’ porous D should help keep Miami in the game, but it just doesn’t have enough weapons to keep up with Denver (which is really sad, by the way).

Denver Broncos: 31-20

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3):

The Jets still look shaky, at least on offense, but the defense has been as reliable as any in the league so far. San Diego has won game after game of close calls, against opponents it should’ve handled. Philip Rivers is consistent as always, but the defense will have to make a statement game against Mark Sanchez and all his playmakers in the Meadowlands. And that’s just not going to happen.

New York Jets: 24-21

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2):

Back to the grinder for Chicago. This team can’t seem to get two weeks’ respite from one of the toughest schedules in the NFC. The Bears demolished Minnesota on primetime, scoring in just about every way possible, but that was an unraveling Vikings team. This is a Buccaneers team that suffered its biggest humiliation in years two weeks ago and has to still be trying to erase that loss from their minds. LeGarette Blount’s probably still out for the Bucs, but the running game, if anything, seemed to pick up last week. Add to that, Josh Freeman seems to finally be returning to 2010 form, and the Bears are gonna have a hard time keeping up with Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-17

Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5):

I said Miami was going to lose because it wouldn’t know how to handle a new quarterback. This time, I think Washington is going to lose because it’s using a new quarterback. One reason why is the reason for the change. In Washington, it’s almost a turnstile system. Mike Shanahan did this with Donovan Mcnabb and Rex Grossman last year, and now he’s doing it with Grossman and John Beck this year. Teams don’t sync well when they have to alternate between two quarterbacks, which puts the pressure on Washington’s defense – although it’s a very good D – to handle things. However, even if Washington’s offense does move the ball, let’s be honest: Carolina’s D isn’t getting any worse. It just … can’t. Carolina’s offense, though, has kept the Panthers in every game, even ones they had no right to contend in. That’s thanks to Cam Newton, who continues to impress despite being the only consistent weapon Carolina has.

Carolina Panthers: 30-21

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2):

Jason Campbell going down for six weeks is painful for everyone. Campbell’s loss may have just cost him a career starter spot, simply because Oakland’s best option was to bring in a former Pro Bowl quarterback. Oakland’s playoff chances are hurt, because it’s signed an out-of-football quarterback and expects him to learn a whole bunch of plays and be ready to start within five days. Against the league’s worst, that’d be hard enough. Against Kansas City, which is coming off a bye and seems to have finally found a running game – which is the one thing Oakland has trouble stopping, keep in mind – it’s going to take a monumental performance by Carson Palmer to keep the Raiders’ win streak going here.

Kansas City Chiefs: 21-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4):

Arizona has looked better in recent weeks. Kevin Kolb seems to finally be getting comfortable, and Beanie Wells is simply coming alive. But Pittsburgh’s offense finally seems to meshing, and the charges that Pitt’s defense seems to old are long in the past. Arizona should have no trouble keeping this a close game, but if Troy Polamalu does play, Pittsburgh just has too much of an advantage here.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 31-20

St. Louis Rams (0-5) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3):

I’d be willing to bet that St. Louis got a steal with Brandon Lloyd for a max fifth-round pick. When Danny Amendola returns next year, Sam Bradford is gonna have a nearly unstoppable receiving tandem. Problem is, that’s next year, not this year. Lloyd should be able to get going immediately, but the Rams have way too many issues to fix right now. Tony Romo and the Cowboys have this thing about giving up late-game leads, but Rob Ryan’s defense isn’t going to let this become a game, and Romo should have a week to almost relax before getting back to choking up big games.

Dallas Cowboys: 28-13

Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5):

I think it’s funny how San Francisco’s whipping on Tampa Bay was a statement game for the 49ers, while the Bears whipping of the Vikings, on primetime, was just a sign of Minnesota’s unraveling. True, it’s probably because Minnesota is much worse than Tampa Bay, but it’s still amusing. The Vikings, on paper, should not be this bad. Their rush defense is nearly as good as ever, and they have always been a run-oriented team. True, “inept” is an understatement when it comes to Minnesota’s passing game, the Vikings seem to have enough pieces to still salvage a respectable season. Of course … that’s when they’re not playing Aaron Rodgers. In a dome.

Green Bay Packers: 27-24

Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2):

The Colts are incredibly lucky at this point. They don’t even have to try to throw these games, because they just keep facing the NFL’s best, nearly week after week. It puts them in perfect position for the Luck Sweepstakes (though I still think disregarding Peyton Manning is a mistake). The Saints have been looking suspect for weeks now, and Tampa Bay managed to expose just enough problems for a win. Indianapolis probably won’t have the same luxury, especially since Sean Payton should be around for the fourth-quarter playcalls this week. New Orleans needs to fix those cracks quick, if it wants to hold onto its playoff spot, though.

New Orleans Saints: 34-17

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5):

Poor NFL. It just cannot catch a break with these primetime games. None of them are working out like normal. True, Jacksonville is at home this week, but when the team can’t seem to sell out its games at rock-bottom prices, that doesn’t really count. The Jags have a decent defense, but odds are, the Ravens defense will be outscoring most offenses this week. It’s a perfect matchup for Baltimore, and it’s not gonna be pretty.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-3

Week 6 NFL Predictions

Couldn’t find much time this week to get the blog on, so you’re gonna get a convinced version this time around … I swear I’ll be redeeming my horrendous performance last week.

San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0):

San Francisco doesn’t give up the play. San Francisco also doesn’t play Megatron. Lions will lose eventually, but it won’t be at home.

Detroit Lions: 27-24

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3):

Falcons are reeling. Their defense stepped up, but then the offense couldn’t get going last week. Cam Newton and the Panthers are a danger every week, and there’s no better than this week.

Carolina Panthers: 31-27

Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2):

Colts had a lot of time to at least eke out a win, but they couldn’t take advantage. Bengals, at home, with a team that looks like it’s starting to click (minus Cedric Benson, who needs to find his legs), should have fun here.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-10

St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0):

Poor St. Louis.

Green Bay Packers: 41-14

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2):

The Bills don’t like proving me right. Still gonna pick them against a Giants team that gave up 36 points to the Seahawks.

Buffalo Bills: 31-28

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2):

The Jaguars’ only saving grace is that Pitt’s offense may be as bad its own. That said, the Jaguars really have no saving grace this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 27-20

Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1):

Skins have too much staked in this game and too much talent to get whipped up on. Vick apologists may say that the losing streak isn’t all his fault, but four interceptions, including one pick-six, speak for themselves.

Washington Redskins: 26-20

Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2):

If Peyton Hillis is back to full health, the Browns should be able to keep this one close, but this is Oakland’s first home game since Al Davis’ death, and Oakland has too much offensive talent to sputter at home.

Oakland Raiders: 21-13

Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1):

Texans are reeling. Andre Johnson’s out for another week, at least, and Mario Williams is gone for the season, and that is huge. Texans can still win a weakened AFC South, but they’re gonna have to make up some serious ground.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-20

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1):

I love that people are still counting on Tony Romo to be big in big games. Especially against a team like the Patriots. He’ll get his 400 yards, but there will be no upset today. Wes Welker and Tom Brady are still the most dangerous combo in the league, and the Patriots all of a sudden have a top-5 run game.

New England: 35-25

New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2):

I don’t think anyone saw that Bay Area beatdown coming from the Bucs. Good teams just don’t do that. In their defense, though, everything went wrong. And what’s better is, they get a very flawed Saints team at home this week. Recipe is perfect for recovering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-24

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3):

The Bears need this badly. As well as Cutler performed last week while running for his life against Detroit last week, it still wasn’t enough to even come close to winning. The Bears D has to, and should, step up this week against the Vikings, although Peterson should easily go for 140 yards.

Chicago Bears: 27-14

Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3):

Dolphins’ best playmaker (Brandon Marshall) wants to get ejected Monday night. Winning mentality there, Phins.

New York Jets: 34-14

Week 5 NFL Predictions

I hate to start off with this kind of news again, but Raiders owner Al Davis was confirmed to have died at the age of 82 today. He was known for being one of the most out-there owners, consistently firing coaches if they weren’t winning Super Bowls in just a couple years, drafting kickers in the first round and always looking for the fastest guy in the draft field. On the flip side, though, he was one of the NFL’s early innovators. Without him, the entire NFL landscape looks different, and one of the most dynamic teams of the last half-century never exists. Davis hasn’t been well – Denarius Moore let slip a couple weeks ago that none of the rookies had met the owner, who used to be a staple on the practice sidelines – for a while, it seems, but I don’t think anybody expected this. My condolences to Raiders fans and those close to the Davis family.

Now, it seems like we have a couple of ridiculous trends going right now. The first, and what has to be the most shocking, are the undefeated Detroit Lions. Three years ago, this team went 0-16, an NFL first. This year, they became the first team to ever record back-to-back victories after trailing by 20 or more. That just doesn’t happen (clearly). Second, don’t look now, but Wes Welker is on pace for 2,464 yards and Calvin Johnson on pace for 32 touchdowns. Both would not just shatter their respective receiving records; no player has ever scored 32 times in a season, and Welker’s yards would come close to matching Chris Johnson’s total yards-from-scrimmage record. And then of course, we continue the year of the quarterback. Six are on pace to throw for 5,000 yards, which only two have done … in history. I keep hearing that eventually, defenses will shake off the rust and this will slow down, but all six not continuing this pace? I doubt it. Looks like Dan Marino may have to move over soon. Now, for your Week 5 picks.

Week 4 Results: 12-4

Season Total: 23-9

Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2):

The Steelers aren’t looking pretty right now. The defense is still solid, but it isn’t the unbreakable wall it’s been for the last few years. The offense looks downright shaky, though, and now Big Ben is in a boot and Hines Ward is still nowhere to be found. The Titans, on the other hand, are flourishing behind the league’s No. 1 scoring defense and despite the lack of playmaking coming from Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Johnson seems to be finding his stride though, and don’t be surprised to see him pull out another 100-yard performance today. However, Pittsburgh still has gas left in the tank, and home field is always a nice luxury when you’re sitting in the Steelers’ precarious position.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1):

This game has a hint of desperation to it. A loss for Vick and the Eagles may drop them to three behind the division-leading New York Giants and Washington Redskins, a far cry from the “Dream Team” that Vince Young espoused at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, though, Buffalo has to feel a little alarm after last week’s collapse at Cincinnati. Has it all just been a fluke? Have teams figure them out? I would not want to be in either team’s position right now. Buffalo managed to outduel Tom Brady and the Patriots a couple weeks ago at home, but I can’t see them doing it again this week. Eagles score early and often here, Ronnie Brown doesn’t pitch it to the opposing defense and the Bills just won’t keep up.

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-24

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Indianapolis (0-4):

Who was surprised by Kansas City’s win last week? I was. Granted, it was at home, Minnesota was the team that looked like it had quality but just wasn’t playing well, not the Chiefs. Instead, Matt Cassel found his groove, and the Chiefs defense seem to have a found a way to hold it together. But the bigger surprise last week had to be Curtis Painter. Demoted to second-string 19 days before the season opener to make way for retiree Kerry Collins, clearly the Colts had no confidence in him. Then he came out and gave Tampa Bay all it wanted from a first-time starter. If Painter can keep his consistency going against a weaker Chiefs’ D and keep Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark involved in the offense, the Colts should erase those 0-16 fears right here.

Indianapolis Colts: 27-21

Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-4):

Well the Kevin Kolb experience isn’t failing, per se, but the Cards definitely haven’t found any wins off him this season. What looked like a decent division race in the NFC West has now left Arizona way behind. Beanie Wells looked shockingly good in his return last week, but that may be more a fluke than a trend. Of course, Minnesota and Donovan McNabb seem to be doing the same dance up north. The Vikings, who were supposed to have a decent shot to contend with the addition of McNabb, are struggling in all facets, McNabb, who’s thrown for less than 200 yards per game, most of all. The wild card here is the run game for both teams. If Wells can produce another 180-yard outing like last week, the Cardinals have a chance to snap that losing streak. But the Vikings have Adrian Peterson. And Peterson’s gonna have a field day against this Arizona defense.

Minnesota Vikings: 31-17

Seattle Seahawks (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1):

Looks like I was wrong; Sidney Rice IS all that Seattle is lacking. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t exactly been stellar this year, but the same Seattle team that looked stagnant in the first couple of weeks still managed to come roaring back against the Falcons last week and hang 28 on them. New York, on the other hands, is quietly finding ways to win. A 100-yard performance by Hakeem Nicks here, a 100-yard performance by Brandon Jacobs there and Manning quietly having one of the best years of his career. Plus, the Seahawks are playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast. Again, I’ll complain, stop doing this, NFL. It’s not fair at all to expect west-coast teams to be fully prepared for a 10-a.m. kickoff.

New York Giants: 31-13

New Orleans Saints (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-3):

Well I’ll give it to Cam Newton: He doesn’t know how to lose. Granted, his team is doing it a lot, but that doesn’t mean he’s accepted his role on a bad team. Without him or Steve Smith, Carolina is, if possible, worse than last year’s 2-14 team. New Orleans, on the other hands, may already have this division under wraps. The Saints have found a steady runner in Mark Ingram, and of course Drew Brees needs no explanation. The Saints’ biggest advantage this week, though? Its defense. Coordinator Gregg Williams has gone to great lengths to give this D its opportunistic reputation, and that’s something Newton will have fits against. He’ll get his 350 yards, but he’ll throw three interceptions as well. The wins will come, Cam. Just not this week. Not against this team.

New Orleans Saints: 31-28

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3):

Andy Dalton got himself a legitimate comeback last week. The Bills may or may not pan out, but right now, that was a big, big comeback for the Bengals, and it’s a good sign in a division that looks like it may be weakening. The Jaguars are headed in the opposite direction, though. That offense is a mess, and the defense isn’t much better. Jack del Rio needs to have a great reason for doing this to his offense, or he may be starting the coaching carousel this season.

Cincinnati Bengals: 21-17

Oakland Raiders (2-2) at Houston Texans (3-1):

I don’t want to know what the Raiders are going through right now. From what I’ve heard, they found about Davis’ death when they woke up this morning, and the majority of players/staff on this team felt a strong affinity for the man. Emotions are gonna run high, and I’ve no doubt several Raiders are going to have great days. But this isn’t the same Houston team we’ve seen for the last 10 years. The No. 1 rushing attack in the country is going up against one of the worst run defenses. Andre Johnson is out, but Owen Daniels and Jacoby Jones are healthy enough to carry the passing attack.

Houston Texans: 31-28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1):

The Niners have to like where they’re sitting right now. They’re the only team that seems to have made serious improvement in the NFC West, and by “improvement,” I mean hiring a Harbaugh. Seriously, these guys are scary good. Jim made the playoffs in his first year with the Ravens, and John is well on his way with the Niners. All of a sudden, Alex Smith doesn’t look like a huge bust, and that defense held the Eagles scoreless for an entire half. Think about it. DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Vick, Lesean McCoy, Brent Celek and Ronnie Brown all couldn’t combine for a single point. That’s impressive. But Tampa Bay isn’t just better than Philadelphia, it’s offense may be better. No one plays the fourth quarter like Josh Freeman, and the Bucs are rolling right now. San Fran will have trouble slowing them at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-17

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at Denver Broncos (1-3):

San Diego may be a winning team, but it sure doesn’t like doing so. The Chargers had arguably the easiest opening quarter season in the league, and they scraped out all three of their wins against teams that are a combined 1-11 right now. Philip Rivers is as good as ever, Ryan Matthews looks like the next LT, but this team is teetering on the brink right now. And I think Denver will push them over. Kyle Orton has Brandon Lloyd back, and Eric Decker has quickly emerged as a top wideout, while Willis McGahee is showing what he has left in the tank. Thankfully, Rivers’ likes to make cornerbacks’ jobs easy, so the fact that the Broncos’ defense is despicable should be covered up.

Denver Broncos: 30-24

New York Jets (2-2) at New England Patriots (3-1):

Did you know the Patriots are giving up nearly 500 yards per game? That’s not bad; that’s historically awful. A blind quarterback with handless receivers could score on this defense. Unfortunately for New York, Mark Sanchez and Co. aren’t acting like they’re much better than that. This offense has all the right pieces, but if it weren’t for an incredible defensive performance through the first quarter, the Jets wouldn’t even be contending. That said, Tom Brady will put up 300 on these guys. And with the introduction of the Stephen Ridley run game, the Pats’ offense will be as potent as ever.

New England Patriots: 34-20

Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2):

If you have to bet on one game this week, do not bet on this one. Matt Ryan has never lost at home in the regular season. He’s only ever lost here once. To Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in last year’s playoffs. And that was a 48-21 shellacking. This week, I have to give the edge to Rodgers. Ryan and the Falcons will fight, but Ryan is simply getting hit too much, and their defense is far too porous, for the Falcons to stay in this game for long, especially if they can’t find a way to rattle Rodgers somehow.

Green Bay Packers: 38-27

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Detroit Lions (4-0):

Look, I’m all about the Cam Newton bandwagon right now, but that’s no excuse to give up 29 points to an offense that consists of two plays: Throw it to Steve Smith, and run it with Cam Newton. That was a game at Soldier Field that the Bears had to take decisively, and instead, they took it meekly. The only upside? Jay Cutler wasn’t sacked last week. And of course, that means nothing against one of the best D-lines in the NFL. Ndamukong Suh appears to have made it his mission to give QBs nightmares, and he’s going to have a field day with this offense. Meanwhile, who can stop Matt Stafford and Megatron? The Cowboys tried, and largely succeeded, for three quarters, but still couldn’t hold on. Added to that, this is the first Monday Night Football game in Detroit (with the Lions playing) in 10 years, and it’s the first ever in Ford Field. Think that place won’t be rocking the whole night? This is a statement game for the Lions, and the Bears are on the wrong end of the punctuation.

Detroit Lions: 34-14

Week 4 NFL Predictions

For those of you who haven’t heard the news, Mike Heimerdinger lost his battle with cancer yesterday at the age of 58. Heimerdinger has been an integral force behind the Titans’ success in the last two decades and despite his diagnosis of a rare form of cancer, Heimerdinger elected to continue coaching his players last year, despite what I can only imagine was the most stressful time of his too-short life. As a devoted Titans fan for much of my life, I can say with assurance that Heimerdinger, you will be missed by everyone.

Now, a couple of things to start off with this week: First off, what the heck, Buffalo? You’re not supposed to buck the trend. You’re supposed to be Buffalo, and do what Buffalo does (Buffalo buffalo buffalo, anyone? No? OK, no more nerd jokes), and lose. A lot. That and Oakland. We all knew McFadden was talented, when he’s healthy, and I even called the Raiders’ win over the Jets, but that was a seriously good effort by Oakland. Coming back from 17-7 and stymying what you can argue is the most talented offense in the NFL is how you say, “Hey, we’re for real.” In other news: Detroit’s awesome (but what’d you expect? The Lions generally are.), Kansas City is just flat bad, and giving Minnesota a two-touchdown lead is like giving a crack addict a load of coke. It’s gone in 30 minutes flat. Also, Kerry Collins’ reputation should go through the roof after this week. Now, without further ado, here are my picks:

Week 3 Results: 11-5

Season Total: 11-5

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1):

Cleveland’s wins have been shaky and the opponents have been weak, but a winning record is a winning record. The Browns do play solid football, with a defense that doesn’t break, as well as a potential two-headed running attack that may give coordinators fits in the near future. Plus they have the winningest NCAA quarterback of all time. That probably helps a little (if he continues to pan out). However, Mike Munchak played under Heimerdinger and coached under him. Think Tennessee might have an emotional edge this week? Look for Chris Johnson to have his breakout week Sunday and Hasselbeck to continue his tear.

Tennessee Titans – 27-13

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1):

I read somewhere that Cris Carter said at the beginning of the season that Calvin Johnson wasn’t even a top-5 NFL wide receiver. Johnson is threatening one of Carter’s most impressive records (consecutive multi-touchdown games, with four) this week. Think Carter’s noticing Megatrown now? That said, Minnesota seemed to have figured out the Lions’ offense last week but couldn’t close the deal. The Cowboys’ defense, led by Demarcus Ware, is as formidable as it’s ever been and if he gets to Stafford as many times as Jared Allen did last week, Detroit may need to worry about finding a backup QB for the third straight season.

Dallas Cowboys – 24-21

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2):

ESPN analyst said Cam Newton came back down to mortality last week, throwing for less than 200 yards. Newton still has the rookie record for most passing yards in a three-game stretch, and he threw for those 200 yards (minus 68 on a Jonathan Stewart reception, called back on a technicality) in the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen in an NFL game. Yeah, awful performance. For Chicago, the same issues remain. Jay Cutler HAS to remain standing (only JaMarcus Russell can throw the ball from his butt, and we all saw how that worked out) and Martz HAS to figure out a way to open up the run game. Thankfully, Chicago should have a week’s respite before refocusing on the fact that they’re playing for third in the NFC North.

Chicago Bears – 27-17

Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2):

To be fair, I never saw Ryan Fitzpatrick as a horrible quarterback; he just never seemed an all-star quarterback. But regular quarterbacks don’t outduel one of the game’s greatest, even on one day. Cincinnati looks like it could be good, but the Bengals laid an egg against San Fran. Youth could be a problem for the Bengals, and I think the Bills will have just enough opportunities to pull out a squeaker here. (Side note: WHY are the Bengals not dealing Palmer? They’ve clearly found a decent replacement in Andy Dalton.)

Buffalo Bills – 31-30

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Kansas City (0-3):

Somebody has to win here, I guess. My opinion: Vikings will run up a 27-7 halftime score, with Adrian Peterson having the half of his life, with 150 yards and two touchdowns, but Minnesota will mysteriously forget about him for the third straight second half, and allow the hapless Chiefs to climb back in to tie it. Neither team will score in overtime.

OK, I was serious about the first chunk. Just not the overtime part. And I think Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston will find a way to keep it close in the second, but the Vikings should walk out of here with their first win.

Minnesota Vikings – 30-23

Washington Redskins (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-3):

I know the Rams are hurt on offense, but KC has it worse and still managed to give San Diego a go last week. Torrey Smith made the Rams look silly on defense, which, given Steve Spagnuolo’s predigree, really is inexcusable. Good Rex doesn’t even need to show up for the Skins to keep on rolling.

Washington Redskins – 27-10

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2):

Michael Vick needs to slow down. He’s not healthy and he keeps getting hurt and, no, that isn’t the refs fault. (He may have a legitimate grievance here, but if you play like a running back, you’re going to get calls like a running back. Deal with it.) Odds are, Vick will miss time in this one as well, let’s keep in mind, the Niners are not a good team. Solid, consistent play has kept them winning, but look for the Eagles to explode on both sides of the ball, with or without Vick.

Philadelphia Eagles – 34-13

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2):

Drew Brees would like to issue a statement to everyone worshipping Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Cam Newton right now: “Hey, I’m still around.” Or he would, if he hadn’t done so in the fourth quarter against the Texans. Lance Moore is back for the Saints, and the run game seems to have found its feet. Meanwhile, nobody has a clue what Jacksonville is doing. Jones-Drew is great, but when your leading receiver has 139 yards through three games, 40 of which came on an end-of-half Hail Mary, it’s not hard to figure out how to stop that offense.

New Orleans Saints – 34-18

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1):

I can’t quite put my finger on it, but something isn’t right with the Steelers’ offense this year. Maybe it’s the star-player effect? Two years ago, Chris Johnson had 2,500 yards from scrimmage, and was incredible through the first six games of the season … while his team struggled to 0-6. This year, Mike Wallace is close to his predicted pace for a 2,000-yard season, yet Pitt can’t score. Roethlisberger’s excessive turnovers do not help, and facing a much-improved Texans team that held New Orleans down for three quarters won’t do anything to improve the Steeler struggles. Consider this a semi-permanent changing-of-the-guard game.

Houston Texans – 24-21

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2):

Eli Manning likes his streaks doesn’t he? Five or six games at a time, he’s an elite-caliber QB. Rest of the season, though, he’s solidly average. He should have a couple more games in him, so relax, Giants fans. However, Ahmad Bradshaw really should be getting the ball more. He’s as quick as anyone in this league, and it’s a crime for him to get fewer than 15 touches a game. On the flipside, Arizona is an enigma. The defense seems to be leading this team (even if Sidney Rice had his way with it last week), while the Kevin Kolb-Larry Fitzgerald connection isn’t exactly what the Cardinals were hoping for. Arizona should turn this around, but it won’t be this week.

New York Giants – 27-17

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2):

All right, Atlanta, what was that? 20 yards on 11 carries for Michael Turner? Tampa Bay is a good team, and that loss had to come, but that was a woefully inept offensive performance from a very solid offense. The Falcons have been a little limp since getting blown out by Green Bay last year, but Matt Ryan and Co. are too talented to not turn this around soon. Meanwhile, Seattle finally found an offense, and it comes in the form of Sidney Rice. Rice broke 100 yards in his first game back (he’s just shy of being the team’s leading receiver, if that tells you anything), but as Minnesota proved a couple years back, Rice cannot take you to the playoffs. Or even win against decent teams.

Atlanta Falcons – 30-13

Denver Broncos (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0):

The Tim Tebow boos are only going to get louder, but this is not just Kyle Orton’s fault. Knowshon Moreno is well on his way to being another first-round bust, leading the run game straight into the ground. Thankfully, Denver’s defense seems to have stepped up. That’s not going to be enough to stop Aaron Rodgers, who, like Brady, is just operating on another level right now. If Orton manages to take advantage of the Pack’s clearly ailing secondary, the Broncos have a chance, but Rodgers at Lambeau? Might as well think Favre at Lambeau.

Green Bay Packers – 34-27

New England Patriots (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-1):

When the schedule came out at the beginning of the year, Bill Belichick had to have breathed a sigh of relief for the opening-season schedule, which featured three teams with losing records in four games. Not so much now. Both the Bills and the Raiders lead their division, and it doesn’t seem to be a fluke. The Raiders’s D, as I said earlier, is extremely good, even without All-Star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, and could well give Brady more fits. What’s certain is, Wes Welker will NOT go for 200 yards again this week. However, Brady won’t throw four interceptions again, and Belichick simply doesn’t lose twice in a row. McFadden will lead the way for the Raiders, but he won’t be enough.

New England Patriots – 37-27

Miami Dolphins (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1):

Miami is just a bad team right now. Daniel Thomas seems to be the lone bright spot for this team, and if Brandon Marshall doesn’t cure his case of the dropsies and the defense doesn’t settle down, the Phins are on their way to getting worse. Meanwhile, the Chargers continue the magic of having one of the league’s best offenses and defenses, yet squeaking out victories. They’ll try to lose this one too, but even they shouldn’t be able to give this one away.

San Diego Chargers – 21-19

New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1):

Not a good stretch for the Jets. Baltimore may quietly be the league’s most well-rounded team, especially with the explosive emersion of Torrey Smith (I’ll stop talking about him when he doesn’t have 130 yards and three touchdowns through the first quarter, OK?). New York’s no slouch either. The offense seems to be clicking, and the defense is as formidable as ever. But Baltimore has home field in this one, and as physical as this game should be, you can expect that to play a huge role.

Baltimore Ravens – 17-13

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1):

Indy’s season just goes from bad to worse, but at least it gets to happen on primetime. Kerry Collins will be sitting this week out after receiving a concussion during last week’s loss to the Steelers, and Curtis Painter will be starting. And folks, Painter is bad. So bad, the Colts signed a 38-year-old retiree 19 days before the season opener, just to keep him from starting. And Indy won’t have the luxury of an offense that insists on giving up turnovers this week. Josh Freeman is just too consistent, and LeGarette Blount is a threat to explode any time … I mean running, not punching people, by the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 31-13

Side note: This is why I believe we should all respect Collins a little bit more. The starting job is his, guaranteed, yet he sits out when he has a concussion. More quarterbacks need to follow this mode. A recipient of a couple of concussions myself, I can tell you, they’re a serious deal, and they get worse each time. Stop with the bravado, Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick, and start focusing on your futures and on setting a good example for those who idolize you (regrettable though their choices may be).