NFL Predictions - Week 4

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 33-15-0

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-0):

Raise your hand if you’re a little concerned with how Green Bay’s offense has started off this season. Good, that should be just about everyone in America, outside of Chicago. The Packers have been subpar at best on the offensive side of the ball through three games, getting hammered in Seattle and (to a lesser degree) in Detroit, and having to climb out of a three-touchdown hole at home against the Jets. Those are not the marks of a talented team struggling through a tough schedule. Jordy Nelson has been his usual amazing self, but Aaron Rodgers has looked shaky (shaky offensive lines tend to pass that characteristic onto their QBs) and Eddie Lacy simply hasn’t looked like anything so far this season. The defense has played well in its last six quarters, holding New York and the Lions to 15 combined points on offense, but in as high-powered a division as the NFC North, it’s offense that will determine Green Bay’s success. They’ll finally face a weaker defense in the Bears this week, which should alleviate some of the stress they’ve seen on that side.

For Chicago’s part, all I keep thinking about is how good they’re making the Bills look right now. Granted, the Niners look like they’ve backslid a bit this year, and the Jets are hardly elite, but after dropping a shocking home opener to Buffalo in Week 1, the Bears have simply traveled some 6,000 miles in the past two weeks and won two games in convincing fashion. The problem is, the run game hasn’t gotten going yet, and a relatively weak defense, which was shredded by a terrible-looking Geno Smith last week, has been able to mask its incompetencies by repeated huge plays. Those kinds of plays don’t typically happen against a quarterback like Rodgers, though, and that could cause problems for the Bears.

Green Bay Packers: 31-27

 

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1):

Buffalo looked sloppy against San Diego last week in pretty much all facets. No one will mistake EJ Manuel for Russell Wilson any time in the near future, but he’s going to have to do more than get half of his 238 passing yards from running backs if he’s going to make defenses back out of the back. The run game was bottled up, and everything in Buffalo is predicated around the run game. Another stout performance by the Bills’ surprising defense shone through this week, holding Donald Brown to just 62 yards on 31 carries, but it simply won’t be enough if the offense can’t exhibit some form of ball control in the coming weeks.

The Texans, for their part, have been one of the most enigmatic teams in football. After holding a – we think – potent Washington offense to six points in Week 1, then blasting the Raiders on the road, Houston was annihilated in New York last week. A huge part of that had to do with Arian Foster registering a DNP, but he didn’t account for the defense, which, normally stout, simply could not slow down the Giants. They should struggle again today against the Bills’ rushing attack, but with Foster back in, at home, Houston should be able to dictate the pace of the game and keep it from getting out of hand again.

Houston Texans: 20-17

 

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2):

What looked like a promising season after Week 1 already seems to have gone down the drain. The Titans defense, so effective at bottling up Jamaal Charles and rattling Alex Smith, has been shredded in two consecutive weeks by two of the best running backs in the NFL. That’s put pressure on what should be an elite secondary to come up big, and it simply hasn’t been able to for 60 minutes at a time. Add to that, man-of-glass Jake Locker is unlikely to play this week, and any chance the Titans have of keeping pace in what may be a shootout is diminishing quickly.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, finally put everything together last week, albeit against the hapless Jags. Andrew Luck has looked phenomenal to start this season, and there’s no reason to think a home match against the reeling Titans will be different. Indy doesn’t feature an elite rushing attack, but a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw is dangerous, and he should do enough to keep the Titans from backing off and focusing on Luck’s receiving weapons.

Indianapolis Colts: 31-17

 

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1):

I have no idea what happened in Carolina last week. I know Cam Newton still isn’t healthy, and I know Le’Veon Bell may be the best young back in the NFL, but that doesn’t excuse the egg the Panthers laid on both sides of the ball. A stout defense, with arguably the best linebacking corps in the NFL, was unable to contain Bell all night, and Carolina moved the ball effectively for two, maybe three, drives the entire game. That’s going to be a problem this week against a Baltimore defense that’s looking more and more like their old 2012 selves. Both Cam and DeAngelo Williams should be active, which will give the Panthers a much more dynamic attack, but it may still not be enough this week.

For Baltimore’s part, a last-second field-goal victory over the Browns seems to be what everybody’s doing this year, and it’s hardly a knock on them. Holding Cinci to just three scores on Opening Day, then Pittsburgh to just two field goals four days later is much more indicative of how this team should perform against Carolina this week. Plus, Steve Smith has been on fire to start the season, and he’ll be looking to show his former team just how valuable he still is. With the Ravens’ biggest weak link – the running game – finally coming together, despite a true No. 1 back, Baltimore should be able to slip by the Panthers.

Baltimore Ravens: 20-17

 

Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2):

I don’t know what I’m watching in Detroit. A shaky secondary somehow managed to bottle up Aaron Rodgers, but got shredded in a half against a nearly weapon-less Cam Newton. Matt Stafford, a 5,000-yard quarterback, seems to have regressed under a highly touted QB coach, despite adding two new weapons to the offense, but still manages to show flashes of brilliance when least expected. Put simply: I have no idea what Lions team will show up this week. But with a Jets’ defense that almost perfectly mirrors Detroit’s own, coupled with a unique running attack in Reggie Bush, leads me to believe that the Lions should find this matchup much more accommodating than their last road trip to Carolina.

New York, for its part, seems to be headed in the right direction, despite dropping two winnable games in a row. Geno Smith may have looked awful, but he still put up 317 yards on the Bears, and Chris Johnson/Ivory seem to have created a solid backfield, as well. The biggest issue is a secondary that has been absolutely blitzed by the NFC North in the last two weeks, and it’s unlikely they’ll get any reprieve as they try to shut down the best receiver in the game this week. If Smith can play efficiently and score every time he’s given an opportunity, this game should be good. If not, well, it’s a long road to keeping Rex Ryan’s job.

Detroit Lions: 27-20

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsbugh Steelers (2-1):

I didn’t buy into the idea that the Bucs could rack up double digit wins or surprise their division, but I did think it would be a solid team. And I still think it will be, by year’s end. Unfortunately, right now it’s pretty much a dumpster fire. The Josh McCown experiment seems to be tabled for the foreseeable future, and the Logan Mankins trade hasn’t been enough to consistently shore up the offensive line. The Steelers’ defense is relatively weak, compared to the rest of the AFC North, but Tampa struggled to score points against Atlanta, and they’ll need just as many this week against a Steelers offense that looks capable of playing whatever style it wants.

The Steelers’ offense has looked near-unstoppable twice and near-incompetent once. The difference? Antonio Brown missing half a game, and a short week in arguably their most hostile environment in the league. I’m willing to give a pass on that performance for now. Bell and Antonio Brown have simply been unstoppable this season, and Roethlisberger, though looking a little shaky this season, has been doing more than enough to keep the ball moving as well. Pittsburgh will struggle to contain a Tampa offense that does have some talented weapons, but it should score enough points to overcome that.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 31-21

 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3):

At this point, pretty much everyone in Miami is playing for his job. A satisfying win over New England in the season opener seems like a distant memory after blowout losses at the Bills and to the Chiefs at home. Miami’s defense, after holding New England scoreless for the entire second half, seems at a loss as to how to stop the running game … or a team’s best receiver, for that matter. Lamar Miller has looked much improved this season, but he’s still a significant dropoff from Knowshon Moreno, and Ryan Tannehill is clearly a couple wrong moves from being benched by a coach who knows a few more losses may mean the end of his tenure.

On the flip side, Oakland desperately needed a real home game, not a ceremonial one in England. The Raiders are staring at 0-4, with no surefire way to prevent it. Khalil Mack has looked every bit the part of a top-10 pick, but pretty much everything else about that defense is a dumpster fire. It’s completely incapable of stopping the run, which is a problem, since Miami will likely lean heavily on Miller to shoulder the burden the of this game. On offense,  Derek Carr looks like a solid QB, and James Jones is slowly coming into his own, but hobbled Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, as well as weak remaining wide receiver threats mean that is about the only threat Oakland poses to opposing defenses. The Raiders will get their first win soon, but it won’t be this week.

Miami Dolphins: 23-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1):

After one half of football this season, Jacksonville looked like it was ready to contend with the best the NFL had to offer. Then the floor fell out. The Jags have given up 119 points in the last ten quarters, while scoring just 27, and many of those points came during garbage time. Toby Gerhart simply is not living up to expectations, and the Jaguars’ receivers are sharing injuries around like sisters trade clothes. The defense may as well not shown up this season, ranking dead last in literally everything, something that has to sit heavily on Gus Bradley, who was hired specifically for his defensive prowess. Like the Raiders, things will improve, especially with Blake Bortles now under center for the foreseeable future, but it won’t happen soon enough.

San Diego, for its part, hasn’t had a weak performance yet this season. A close loss at Arizona, followed by a home win against the reigning Super Bowl champs and a blowout win at the AFC East-leading Bills, indicates San Diego is legitimate by every metric. The loss of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead will slow down the Chargers’ offense some, but Philip Rivers has hardly utilized the weapons at his disposal, seemingly rotating through receivers one game at a time, and the defense, though not stellar, has managed to bottle up several strong offenses, and Jacksonville does not have one of those. Look for Keenan Allen to get his turn as the breakout receiver this week and for the Chargers to roll to an easy 3-1 quarter pole.

San Diego Chargers: 31-20

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2):

Philly may be 3-0, but it certainly hasn’t made things easy on itself, having to dig out of a 17-point halftime hole against Jacksonville, needing a last-second FG to overcome Indy, and then barely holding off a Washington offense that really hasn’t looked good otherwise. Nick Foles hasn’t looked anything like his 2013 self, though he seems to have gained some of that poise back in the last week or so, and Lesean McCoy just doesn’t look like anything right now. If not for the addition of Darren Sproles, the Eagles are very likely holding a 1-2 record coming into San Francisco (or Santa Clara or wherever they decided to stick the new stadium and still call it “home”).

The Niners are pretty much the exact opposite, blowing double-digit leads at home against Chicago and on the road at Arizona, despite looking like an all-around solid team. The defense has dealt with free agency, serious injuries and ridiculous media campaigns and still managed to hold as a top-10 unit, but the offense has some serious question marks. Playcalling that saw the Niners run the ball only nine times at Arizona last week, despite holding a large lead and a four-turnover day by Colin Kaepernick two weeks ago are major factors in why this team is not 3-0. The Niners have moved the ball so easily it almost looks lazy (seriously, just check out their box against the Cowboys), yet they’ve struggled to put teams away each of the last two weeks. That should change this week as desperation starts to set in, though.

San Francisco 49es: 27-24

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2):

If an NFL team can look perfect, Atlanta did so last Thursday, looking every bit like the team that was perennial NFC favorites until last year. Julio Jones has stayed healthy so far, and Matt Ryan apparently enjoys running for his life, because he’s on pace for a career year, and the committee the Falcons are running out of the backfield, spearheaded by Stephen Jackson, seems to be getting the job done as well. The problem is, the defense. A squad decimated by injuries last year didn’t really improve; it simply acquired new aging veterans replace the old aging, now-injured veterans from last year, and it may only be a matter of time until the effects of that start to kick in. The Falcons were incapable of stopping either Cincinnati or New Orleans earlier in the season, and Minnesota, even without Adrian Peterson, has enough weapons to keep even a solid defense on its toes.

Minnesota has had more than its fair share of problems in the last few weeks. Right when it looks like the Vikings are settling down and coming to terms with the loss of Adrian Peterson, Matt Cassel broke several bones in his foot and is out for the season. Teddy Bridgewater was supposed to be the quarterback of the future, not the present, and he’ll need to have a quick growth curve for the Vikings to stay in the discussion. Thankfully, a defense that was expected to be another year or two away from dominance has stepped up, ranking 12^th in the pass, 15^th in the rush, despite spending way too much time on the field in each of the last two games. It won’t be enough to stop the Falcons, but it should keep the game closer.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-17

 

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1):

I’m torn on New Orleans here. On the one hand, they’ve lost eight straight road games and have simply been incapable of stopping opposing passing attacks when it matters most, despite specifically targeting secondary players during free agency. On the other, it’s Drew Brees, Sean Payton and the Saints, and they simply do not go 1-3. The problem is, Brees is missing his best runner, which used to not matter as much, but with Marques Colston clearly showing his age this year, defenses draping Jimmy Graham and rookie Brandin Cooks, and a huge dropoff in receiving talent from there, Brees just does not have as many options as he used to. That said, streaks will eventually break, and the Saints are too good to fall two games back in the division already.

Dallas, for its part, has pulled just about every trick in the book to get to 2-1. After a lousy blowout loss to start the season, DeMarco Murray simply ran over and through the Titans, and Tony Romo and Dez Bryant worked some miracles in order to surge back against the Rams last week. The defense hasn’t played well, but it’s far from the unearned moniker of “worst defense in history” that many people were giving it in the preseason. Unfortunately, a “not terrible” defense tends to look horrific against Drew Brees, and the Cowboys, and Murray can only average 27 touches per game for so long before he starts to wear down. If the Cowboys can’t run the clock and keep Brees’ possessions to a minimum, this game could get out of hand quickly.

New Orleans Saints: 31-27

 

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2):

The trade of Logan Mankins was a pretty clear sign there would be some issues in New England coming into the season, but I don’t think anyone thought there’d be this much trouble. The Patriots struggled mightily in the second half in Miami, got help from several key defensive plays in Minnesota, and managed to put up just 16 points on an Oakland defense that should not be considered good by any means. Stevan Ridley seems to have played himself back into the rotation, but he and Julian Edelman aside, the Patriots have looked lost. Tom Brady still looks like a field general, but his passing is noticeably off, Rob Gronkowski hasn’t been on the field enough to be a game change, and the dynamic Shane Vereen just seems to be ignored. Fortunately, the team seems to have reverted to its pre-2007 days, with a defensive squad that might just be among the league’s elite this year. Despite being up at least two scores in each of their games, that squad still manages to lead the league in pass defense, and with a “mediocre” run defense giving up only 104 yards per game, it should more than do its part to carry New England this season.

The Chiefs are coming off their first win of the season, a blowout win at Miami, without their best player on the field. The defense has already suffered some serious injuries and will be missing Eric Berry this week, which could spell trouble if Edelman or Gronk get behind their coverages, but Andy Reid seems to have gone back to what made this squad successful last season, running the ball and relying on efficiency. The emergence of Travis Kelce means that Alex Smith now has a true No. 1 receiving threat, which should keep defenses honest, and against a Patriots’ squad that struggled to slow Moreno down at all in Week 1, the Chiefs should be able to gash New England and keep Brady off the field at the same time.

Kansas City Chiefs: 21-17

Week 4 - Thursday Night

New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2):

It’s kind of funny. As ugly as both teams have looked at points this season, there’s just no way tonight’s game looks any uglier than the one we saw a week ago. The Giants have been throttled by the Lions, outplayed by the Cardinals and hammered the Texans … which is to say, it’s pretty much up in the air which team will show up tonight. Unsurprisingly, it’s actually the defense that’s stepped up, holding New York’s opponents to fewer and fewer points each successive week and giving Houston fits in the Giants’ first win on Sunday. Antrel Rolle and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie stepped up, with the Giants’ first forced turnovers of the season, and that, in turn, seemed to take pressure off Big Blue’s offense, allowing Eli Manning to play, if not exceptionally, then at least mistake-free and Rashad Jennings to simply take over, with 176 yards on the ground.

The Redskins, for their part, may be coming off a loss, but it’s about as weak a loss as can come. Facing their first game during life without RGIII, Kirk Cousins shredded the Eagles’ defense for 427 yards, as all the Skins’ passing weapons – Pierre Garcon, Desean Jackson, and Niles Paul – showed up on Sunday. This game figures to be a little less exciting – the Giants actually have the best defense in the NFC East – but if Cousins can utilize his weapons like he did on Sunday, even a much more confident Giants squad will struggle to keep up. Don’t expect the Giants to break the trend of lopsided Thursday night games.

Washington Redskins: 31-17

NFL Predictions - Week 3

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 21-11-0

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0):

San Diego Chargers: 24-21

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-1):

Dallas Cowboys: 27-20

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0):

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-27

Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2):

New York Giants: 17-13

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2):

New Orleans Saints: 37-27

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0):

Cincinnati Bengals: 27-20

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1):

Baltimore Ravens: 21-20

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1):

Detroit Lions: 27-24

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2):

Indianapolis Colts: 27-23

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1):

New England Patriots: 34-17

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0):

San Francisco 49ers: 23-17

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1):

Seattle Seahawks: 24-23

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1):

Miami Dolphins: 31-27

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-0):

Carolina Panthers: 27-17

Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1):

New York Jets: 27-24

Week 3 - Thursday Night

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-0):

Guys, it’s a lot harder to get these picks done on Thursdays when you work 8-5. I’m not sure if I’m a fan of the real world. Thankfully, Tampa and Matt Ryan will make this pick easy on me. The Bucs were billed as being a surprise/bounceback team this year, thanks in large part to the expected immediate impact of Lovie Smith on the defense. That has simply not been the case, with Derek Anderson and Austin Davis (yeah, I don’t know him either) gouging them in successive weeks. Now they go on the road, not only in an 0-2 hole, but having given up two games worth of home-field advantage, to face a renewed and somewhat-more-healthy Atlanta Falcons squad from a year ago. The Falcons laid an egg in Cinci last week, but the Bengals may have the best defense in the league, so don’t expect a repeat tonight.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-17

NFL Predictions - Week 2

All right, let’s try this again. Both times I’ve tried writing something this season, my pre-season picks (which will be put up eventually, I swear) and my Week 1 picks, my computer decided to auto-reset and ignore my auto-save settings, and it’s just really hard to re-write the exact same 3,000 words again when it all just got deleted. But anyway, this week will actually have words and sentences and all that fancy jazz, which is good, because I went 12-4, called several upsets (and whiffed pretty badly on one) and I feel the need to talk about it, so what I’ll do is just write a whole lot extra this week, which will totally balance things out.

 

For people freaking out over New England’s loss: Don’t. Miami’s defense has gotten progressively better over the last several seasons, and they always play New England tough at home. It’s Week 2 and already Chicago fans are starting to wonder if maybe they were too optimistic about their team. Dallas and the Giants should both be looking forward to the 2015 draft already, and Houston and St. Louis should be questioning their decision to pass on a quarterback in the 2014 draft (especially now that Jadeveon Clowney is likely done for the foreseeable future).

 

As nasty as the Rams’ loss looked, though, they did a pretty good job of stifling Adrian Peterson – opting instead to let sophomore Cordarelle Patterson run them ragged – and their front seven should be enough to keep them in games this season. Unfortunately, when you’re forced to voluntarily utilize your third-string quarterback mid-game, the season likely won’t go in your favor. Despite St. Louis’ troubles, though, the NFC West looks like it will be the league’s best division yet again. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals put on a second-half display Monday night to match the Seahawks and Niners’ maulings of Green Bay and Dallas, respectively. The AFC East should be fun to watch, Denver should easily repeat as division champions, and if you want points, you should move to the NFC North for the season. I’ll go into more detail about all that below, though. So without further ado, picks (and explanaitions!):

 

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 12-4-0

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1):

I was as impressed with the Steelers’ offensive display as I was with their second-half collapse on defense. Pittsburgh has made efforts in the past couple offseasons to shore up an aging defense, but as a near-toothless Cleveland offense showed, it’s simply not been enough. On the other hand, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell showed they’re more than enough to carry Pittsburgh. Bell has clearly made the next step after a rookie campaign that saw Bell featured as the bell cow for the Steelers offense, often averaging fewer than 4 yards-per-carry on 25-or-more handoffs. He put up 195 yards of total offense against a defense that sat in the top third of the league for much of the season. Antonio Brown was far off, adding five receptions for 115 yards, as well as a phenomenal judo kick to the face of the Browns’ punter (accidental … we hope).

 

For the Ravens part, they managed to keep Cincinnati’s offense relatively in check until AJ Green did what AJ Green does and scored on a 77-yard touchdown immediately following an 80-yard Steve Smith TD. The problem is, Baltimore’s run game is anemic, yet again, and with the departure of Ray Rice and the disappointment of Bernard Pierce, it’s unlikely they’ll have anything remotely prepared again this week. The flip side to this is the fact that this might be the fiercest rivalry game in the NFL, with a home loss meaning Baltimore falls to 0-2. Both teams typically play their best defense against each other, and in a low-scoring affair, the Ravens’ much better defense should be the deciding factor.

Baltimore Ravens: 17-13

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0):

I don’t know what Cameron Wake is getting paid, but he should get a raise for Week 1. He spent more time in the backfield with Tom Brady than Stevan Ridley did (that is not a joke), and just about singlehandedly prevented Brady from orchestrating anything in the second half. The Dolphins defense has been a steadily improving unit under head coach Joe Philbin and have completely shut down Brady in each of their last home outings vs. New England. While it’s unlikely they’ll fare as well in Buffalo, where the Bills themselves are coming off an incredible Week 1 win, it should be enough to give young QB EJ Manuel fits. Ryan Tannehill seems to have finally reached the point where we can call him a good starting QB, and if he can play mistake-free, he should be able to turn this game into a shootout. The key for the Dolphins, though, will be whether they can sustain their success on the ground from last week. Knowshon Moreno (and to a smaller degree Lamar Miller) led the league in rushing, shredding a Patriots front seven that was expected to be pretty staunch this season. Moreno clearly wasn’t affected by his offseason surgery, with his cuts looking as quick and sharp as last year, and he played a vital role in keeping Tannehill upright for much of the game. If the Dolphins can establish the run game and dictate the pace, Buffalo will have trouble keeping up.

For Buffalo’s part, the Bills played phenomenally well in Chicago. A healthy Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller combination against the Bears’ porous run D meant an early lead and a way to control the clock late as Chicago mounted multiple comeback attempts. The real focus here, though, is Manuel’s growth. While looking far from an elite quarterback, Manuel was able to make plays both with his arm and his legs, and he made Chicago pay for focusing on rookie phenom Sammy Watkins by connecting with Robert Woods repeatedly, to the tune of 99 yards. The problem with Buffalo, yet again, is how effective its defense can be. Reliant upon turnovers and big plays to mask gaping holes last season, the squad seems to be doing the same thing again this year. Matt Forte put up nearly 200 yards of offense, while an Alshon Jeffery injury is probably the only reason they didn’t give up 200 additional yards. Buffalo should put up points, but the inability of its defense to stop a methodical, efficient attack from the Dolphins will be the deciding factor here.

Miami Dolphins: 27-23

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1):

For a half, Jacksonville looked good, like it was ready to be relevant again. Then the wheels fell off. Rookie Allen Hurns was shut down (after shredding the eagles for 117 yards and two TDs, of course), the run game couldn’t get going, and then there was that small problem of giving up 27 points in the second (another seven came from on a pick-six from a clearly flustered Chad Henne). That said, the signs are there. Gus Bradley finally seems to have the formation of the defense he wants, and if Toby Gerhart lives up to expectations and Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts can finally survive their injuries, Jacksonville’s offense should become effective enough to be considered a threat.

After the entire preseason and the first week, I still don’t know what I’m seeing from Washington. At one point, Robert Griffin III had one of the most egregious lines I’ve ever seen for a QB (something like 17 completions for 96 yards in the first half. How does that yards/completion even happen?). As many weapons as he had at his disposal, the Skins only managed two field goals, against a unit that lost Clowney early. The defense seemed to do its part, limiting Houston to 17 points, but it still allowed 100 yards to Arian Foster and a 76-yard touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, both glaring holes that will cost the Skins games if the offense doesn’t figure things out soon – as in, this week. RGIII should bounce back somewhat in front of his home crowd and a defense that may not have the best front four in the game, and the Jaguars’ mediocre offense will struggle to keep up.

Washington Redskins: 24-17

 

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0):

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the 49ers-Cowboys game, go find highlights of it. It won’t take long, maybe five plays. The defense we all knew was bad was, in fact, atrocious, but the problem here is how bad Tony Romo looked. Shaky from the start, Romo tried forcing plays there simply weren’t there and wound up with three picks, and a DeMarco Murray fumble returned for a touchdown early didn’t help the situation, as it forced Dallas into a pass-only attack in the second quarter. We’ll see this week whether that was an aberration or the norm, but given how thoroughly the Titans’ defense throttled the league’s best player in Jamaal Charles last week, it doesn’t look promising for America’s Team.

The Titans, meanwhile, are coming off a road win of near-blowout proportions, hammered in the Chiefs in both facets of the game. As good as Jake Locker and the rest of the squad looked (and keep in mind, pre-injury 2013 Locker looked equally effective), it was the Titans’ control of the line-of-scrimmage on the other side of the ball that was most impressive. Kansas City fields one of the best offensive lines in football, and the Titans were able to not only limit Charles’ playmaking ability, but to eliminate it completely. Additionally, they forced arguably the most efficient quarterback in football, Alex Smith, into three turnovers, all coming on non-blitz plays. If the Titans can essentially hold Kansas City to three non-garbage-time points, they should be able to easily handle this Cowboys offense.

Tennessee Titans: 31-17

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):

A year into his tenure with the Cardinals, Carson Palmer seems to have found his stride. Facing one of the better defensive backfields in the league, while trailing for much of the second half, Palmer was able to not only throw for 300 yards but to throw no interceptions as well, a performance that’s become all too rare at this point in his career. Most incredibly, he did it almost completely without Larry Fitzgerald’s help. Michael Floyd looked nearly unstoppable, and Andre Ellington, operating at less than 100 percent, was easily the best back on the field that night. And despite numerous injuries, including the recent loss of John Abraham, the Cardinals’ defense continued to look impressive, neatly shutting down Philip Rivers for most of the night. Against a Giants’ offense that more or less doesn’t have a line, the Cardinals should feast this weekend.

New York is in trouble. So much trouble, in fact, that I’m not really sure what to pinpoint as the issue. Eli Manning looks terrible, true, but we’d probably look just as bad behind the offensive line he’s dealing with. Rashad Jennings is the real deal, going up against a very talented Detroit front seven and pretty much having his way, but he’s about the only appeal to that offense. Victor Cruz is clearly not worth the money, Mario Manningham simply didn’t show up, and Larry Donell is the Giants’ starting tight end. Good luck with that, New York. A defense that was among the league’s best just two years ago looked terrible at Detroit on Monday night, trying, and obviously failing, to single cover Calvin Johnson and seemingly incapable of keeping all the Lions’ weapons in check. It won’t get any easier this week, as Arizona fields a passing attack that rivals Detroit’s and should be able to put up points with ease this week.

Arizona Cardinals: 27-20

 

New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0):

In the first half, New England looked like a Super Bowl favorite. In the second, it looked lifeless, on both sides of the ball. Most of that was on the offensive line that, like expected, simply wasn’t ready to face an elite pass rusher like Cameron Wake. Some of it, though, was on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s playcalling. Brady threw the ball 55 times, despite holding the lead for more than half the game, and Shane Vereen was the team’s leading rusher, despite the presence of Ridley and Brandon Bolden. A year ago, New England was the fourth-best rushing team in the NFL, and it all but abandoned that attack when Miami came roaring back. For the defense’s part, it simply allowed Miami to dictate the tempo of the second half, incapable of stopping Moreno despite effectively shutting down the long ball. Unfortunately, with as many weapons as Minnesota has right now, it’ll be completely on the offense to bring home a win from Minnesota.

The Vikings got hit hard by variance last year (a whole bunch of close wins in 2012 turned into a whole bunch of close losses in 2013), but they still brought back one of the league’s best offenses, despite having no true starting quarterback. The defense, no doubt aided by Shaun Hill’s terrible play, and eventual benching, looked ferocious in St. Louis, and with Patterson returning kicks again this year, the special teams should be one of the league’s best. Unfortunately, for the Vikings, Belichick is one of game’s greatest at rebounding from a loss, and it’s unlikely that Brady will so exposed two weeks in a row. The Vikings should put up plenty of points to keep up, but New England should be able to pull one out late.

New England Patriots: 34-31

 

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1):

I honestly don’t have much criticism for the Saints this week. A secondary that was supposed to be one of the league’s elites got lit up, but it was a by a fully healthy Falcons offense that some seemed to have forgotten was one of the league’s best before injuries set in. Drew Brees actually put together his best road performance in two years in arguably the Saints’ most hostile playing environment, and the re-emergence of Mark Ingram means he won’t have to try too hard to carry the offense this season.

Strangely, Cleveland’s offense came alive in the second half against Pittsburgh last week, after Ben Tate and Jordan Cameron both went down with injuries. Andrew Hawkins looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver, and the Terrance West-Isaiah Crowell tandem shredded the Steelers’ defensive line for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns. If Brian Hoyer can keep that kind of offensive production up again this week, the Browns stand a chance, but given a week of film to watch, it’s hard to see New Orleans’ secondary making the same mistakes Pittsburgh did.

New Orleans Saints: 27-20

 

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0):

Shockingly, Matt Ryan appears to still be good at football. I’m not sure how, given arguably the game’s best receiver tandem, a healthy 1,000-yard back and a new offensive line that prefers its quarterbacks in a vertical position, but there it is. Jokes aside, though, if Atlanta avoids the injury bug this year, you’re going to see a lot of those 37-34 scores, because the defense doesn’t look much improved at all. It will do enough against bad offenses to let Ryan seal the game early, but against teams with elite quarterback/wide receiver combos, the Falcons will struggle.
The Bengals, for their part, fall on the low end of that elite combo. Andy Dalton looked as impressive against an improved Baltimore defense as he did for much of last season, and Green is still trying to prove he’s the league’s best receiver. Giovani Bernard, while relatively quiet, still managed to put up almost 100 yards of offense, despite the Ravens clearly keying on him. The loss of Tyler Eifert will limit Dalton’s ability to put up points, but the Bengals’ defense may be the best in the league this year. It absolutely throttled the Ravens on the ground (though a lack of running backs may have some correlation there) and, aside from a fluky 80-yard Steve Smith touchdown, pretty much did the same through the air. They won’t shut down the Falcons this week, but they should be able to do enough to give Dalton a chance to win.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-23

 

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0):

Detroit’s offense moved like a well-oiled machine Monday night, and though the Giants’ clearly aren’t one of the league’s best squads, it’s still difficult to imagine any defense shutting the Lions down, so long as Matt Stafford can play mistake free. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for the past three seasons now. The difference is Jim Caldwell, who, questionable coaching ability aside, has proven his effectiveness at helping quarterbacks to mature. If he’s worked his magic quickly, then Stafford should be able to perform against a ferocious Panthers defense, even with the apparent lack of a running game. The Lions’ secondary, as usual, is the biggest question mark, with nickelback Bill Bentley now out for the season. The Lions are perilously thin back there, and the front seven will have to step up its intensity in order to keep Cam Newton (or possibly Derek Anderson) from having the time to find the flaws in the secondary.

For Carolina’s part, no one expected Anderson to come in and throw for 230 yards against a Lovie Smith defense, especially with the receiving squad Carolina’s fielding. Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin, as expected, carried the bulk of the load, but a solid rushing performance by the aging DeAngelo Williams helped keep the pressure off those two. It’s unlikely the Panthers will be able to work that kind of magic (240 yards from those three combined) two weeks in a row, but they will have to take advantage of the Lions’ only major flaw if they’re going to hold serve at home this weekend.

Detroit Lions: 20-17

 

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1):

The Rams are in trouble. Heaps of it. Shaun Hill has already been yanked, and odds are, it won’t be long until Austin Davis gets seated for Case Keenum. Zac Stacy is a very solid workhorse back, but he’s also not going to put up Peterson-like numbers with the box loaded, leaving St. Louis with very few options on offense. The front four for the Rams’ defense is probably the best in the league, and the defense overall might be a top-five unit, but if it has to be on the field for more than 40 minutes per game, it simply cannot win. And unfortunately, that’s what’s probably going to happen each week until the Rams find some offensive rhythm.

Tampa’s loss didn’t surprise me, but the way the lost did. Josh McCown has been a career journeyman for a reason, and his fourth-quarter performance was nearly enough to put the Bucs back on top, but the defense, which has had a full offseason to develop Lovie’s schemes was simply incapable of stopping what should’ve been an anemic offense for much of the game. Anderson and Benjamin pretty much had their way with the Tampa Bay secondary early. The flip side of this is that Tampa was able to adjust and largely silence Carolina in the second half, showing flashes of what the NFL expected from the new-look Buccaneers. The Rams really only have on offensive option, running, and the Bucs’ should have a field day with that one, easily accounting for any frustrations McCown and Doug Martin might cause on offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-10

 

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-1):

Seattle is a whole other beast at home, that much we know, but it still doesn’t change how impressive they looked. Aaron Rodgers didn’t even try to test Richard Sherman’s side of the field (look at Jarrett Boykin’s 0 targets for 0 yards line), and the rest of the field didn’t give up much more. Granted, Eddie Lacy went down early with a concussion, but the run defense looks much improved from last season’s, arguably Seattle’s biggest weakness. Russell Wilson looked composed against a middle-of-the-road defense, and he used his weapons – Percy Harvin, Marshawn Lynch and his legs – pretty much at will. He’ll face a much stiffer test against the Chargers on the road, but if he can keep his composure, he should still be able to deal serious damage.

San Diego struggled to put up points against the Cardinals, and they’ll likely struggle to do so yet again this week, but this is a much-improved squad from even the end of last season. Philip Rivers looked a little shaky, but Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates still look like they don’t know they’re 30, and Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown provide a solid 1-2 punch that should keep San Diego’s ground game alive this year. Rivers and Co. should be able to put up some points against the Legion of Boom, but the question will come down to whether Eric Weddle and the Chargers’ secondary can prevent any big plays at home, which they should be able to do.

San Diego Chargers: 17-13

 

Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1):

It’s not really fair to use the Redskins as a barometer, but that’s all I have to work with, so I shall. Houston’s defense looks the unit of old, with JJ Watt simply destroying defenses and the secondary refusing to give up any deep looks. The offense looks shaky, and if not for a long Hopkins touchdown, likely would’ve struggled to get close to two touchdowns. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson look hale and healthy, though, and if history serves, that’s about the only offense these Texans will need, especially against units like the Raiders.

At first glance, I thought the Raiders performed somewhat adequately against New York, but even a quick glance at the box score shows just how badly they were mauled. New York racked up more than 500 yards of offense (which leads to the question: How do you only score 19?!), and even though rookie quarterback Derek Carr was effective in his first career start, he had no complementary run game, leaving Oakland with gaping holes on both sides of the ball. Assuming Foster can stay healthy for the entire game, Oakland simply won’t be able to take control of the game’s tempo or its score.

Houston Texans: 24-20

 

New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1):

The biggest fear the Jets had going into the season was their secondary. And after playing the only starting rookie QB in the league this week, nothing happened to assuage those fears. After facing the game’s best secondary in the game’s best home venue a week ago, Rodgers and the Packer offense has to be licking their collective chops. And while Geno Smith looks markedly improved from his rookie year, especially with the addition of Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to go toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

For the Packers’ part, nothing much went right Thursday night, but things typically don’t go right for opponents in Seattle, and it’s impossible to judge a team by that performance. Rodgers is still an elite quarterback, with an incredibly cast surrounding him. The shallow Jets simply won’t be able to stop Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy and whoever lines up at tight end for the Packers this weekend.

Green Bay Packers: 31-17

 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0):

This one could get ugly fast, folks. One of the league’s best offenses a year ago was shut down at home by a defense that Peyton Manning and the Broncos hung 50 on a year ago. After admitting he got away from Charles too much, Andy Reid and the Chiefs should make a concerted effort to get Charles the ball, which means they’ll score points, but a playmaking defense that took a step back during the offseason is unlikely to slow down the Broncos enough to keep up.

For the first half Sunday night, Denver’s offense looked like it hadn’t missed a beat from Week 17. Then it did what has continually gotten it in trouble the past two years: It got complacent. Manning, and whoever his coach is at the time, takes his foot off the gas every time he establishes a big lead, and against a team with another elite QB like Andrew Luck, it could cause disaster. The Broncos spend heavily to upgrade their defense in the offseason, but even this improved unit can’t win if the offense won’t stay on the field. That’s simply a personal issue, though. Talent-wise, there’s simply nothing the Chiefs can do to match up with Denver at home.

Denver Broncos: 37-24

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0):

After watching the Bears for a week, I’ve seen nothing to change my initial assessment that this team is on the way down. The Bears have a dynamic offense, but it performed better under Josh McCown last year than under Jay Cutler, and even a healthy Cutler wasn’t enough to help Chicago outscore Manuel and the Bills. Alshon Jeffery’s injury set the Bears’ offense back a notch, but given that Forte didn’t take off until after Jeffery had left the game, it’s hard to use that as a legitimate excuse for the loss. Instead, let’s focus on the Bears’ three turnovers and a still-not-good defense. The Bears only gave up 360 total yards, but 193 of those came on the ground (granted, against 2013’s best rushing attack) and that’s a number that can’t repeat itself against a Niners squad that features Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and, of course, Colin Kaepernick. Cutler’s biggest knock, aside from injury problems, has been his gunslinger attitude, but that attitude has to change this year if the Bears are going to contend. That offense can compete with anyone, but when an interception essentially means giving up seven points, it gets a lot harder to keep up.

The Niners are another team that will be hard to judge after just one week. The defense avoided becoming a letdown by simply taking the ball away every time the Cowboys’ offense looked away. Kaepernick really didn’t get a chance to show much, as the game was already pretty much sealed by halftime, and almost every pass attempt was complete in the first half. The Bears, though still weak defensively, will likely be a truer test, simply because this should be a shootout. As for the Niners defense, those turnovers will eventually stop coming, but that’s an issue to worry about next week, not this one.

San Francisco 49ers: 34-27

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1):

For a half, it looked like Chip Kelly had been figured out. The league’s third-worst team had shut out the Eagles’ high-flying spread attack and looked like it was going to cruise to an easy 1-0 start. Then Kelly did what good coaches do and adjusted, and the Eagles racked up 27 offensive points in the second half. No one was under the delusion that Nick Foles would put up the same, efficient numbers he displayed last season, but even so, it took him a little while to shake off the rest. Jeremy Maclin is no Desean Jackson, but he seems to fill the void easily enough. The Jaguars made shutting down Lesean McCoy a priority, but that simply left Darren Sproles and Zac Ertz more scoring opportunities, which both took advantage of. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ defense was arguably the more impressive turnaround. A unit that was gashed by no-name Allen Hurns for much of the first half not only shut down Hurns, it silenced every part of the Jaguars’ offense, shutting it out for the half and flustering Henne to the point of throwing a late pick-six to seal the game. They’ll struggle much more against Luck and the Colts, who have far, far more weapons at their disposal than Jacksonville did, but the turnaround was promising.

Speaking of turnarounds, the Colts looked just as bipolar on Sunday night, if only against a far superior opponent. Luck also took a half to get settled in, throwing a couple of picks, but he managed to drag the Colts back into the game with almost 350 total yards and three touchdowns in the last 31 minutes. Defense will be at a premium this game, but Luck and the Colts should hold serve at home in what might be the biggest shootout of the season thus far.

Indianapolis Colts: 37-31

NFL Predictions - Week 1

Well, my computer decided to restart 30 minutes before kickoff and revert my saved file to when I only had eight picks written, so these picks will be short this week, unless I have time to flesh them out again. Team on the left is road, team on right is home.

 

Packers 17 – Seahawks 24

Saints 23 – Falcons 27

Vikings 24 – Rams 17

Browns 13 – Steelers 17

Jaguars 21 – Eagles 34

Raiders 23 – Jets 20

Bengals 17 – Ravens 21

Bills 24 – Bears 34

Redskins 17 – Texans 23

Titans 21 – Chiefs 31

Patriots 21 – Dolphins 24

Panthers 17 – Buccaneers 13

49ers 34 – Cowboys 27

Colts 27 – Broncos 37

Giants 10 – Lions 21

Chargers 17 – Cardinals 24