NFL Predictions - Week 2

All right, let’s try this again. Both times I’ve tried writing something this season, my pre-season picks (which will be put up eventually, I swear) and my Week 1 picks, my computer decided to auto-reset and ignore my auto-save settings, and it’s just really hard to re-write the exact same 3,000 words again when it all just got deleted. But anyway, this week will actually have words and sentences and all that fancy jazz, which is good, because I went 12-4, called several upsets (and whiffed pretty badly on one) and I feel the need to talk about it, so what I’ll do is just write a whole lot extra this week, which will totally balance things out.

 

For people freaking out over New England’s loss: Don’t. Miami’s defense has gotten progressively better over the last several seasons, and they always play New England tough at home. It’s Week 2 and already Chicago fans are starting to wonder if maybe they were too optimistic about their team. Dallas and the Giants should both be looking forward to the 2015 draft already, and Houston and St. Louis should be questioning their decision to pass on a quarterback in the 2014 draft (especially now that Jadeveon Clowney is likely done for the foreseeable future).

 

As nasty as the Rams’ loss looked, though, they did a pretty good job of stifling Adrian Peterson – opting instead to let sophomore Cordarelle Patterson run them ragged – and their front seven should be enough to keep them in games this season. Unfortunately, when you’re forced to voluntarily utilize your third-string quarterback mid-game, the season likely won’t go in your favor. Despite St. Louis’ troubles, though, the NFC West looks like it will be the league’s best division yet again. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals put on a second-half display Monday night to match the Seahawks and Niners’ maulings of Green Bay and Dallas, respectively. The AFC East should be fun to watch, Denver should easily repeat as division champions, and if you want points, you should move to the NFC North for the season. I’ll go into more detail about all that below, though. So without further ado, picks (and explanaitions!):

 

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 12-4-0

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1):

I was as impressed with the Steelers’ offensive display as I was with their second-half collapse on defense. Pittsburgh has made efforts in the past couple offseasons to shore up an aging defense, but as a near-toothless Cleveland offense showed, it’s simply not been enough. On the other hand, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell showed they’re more than enough to carry Pittsburgh. Bell has clearly made the next step after a rookie campaign that saw Bell featured as the bell cow for the Steelers offense, often averaging fewer than 4 yards-per-carry on 25-or-more handoffs. He put up 195 yards of total offense against a defense that sat in the top third of the league for much of the season. Antonio Brown was far off, adding five receptions for 115 yards, as well as a phenomenal judo kick to the face of the Browns’ punter (accidental … we hope).

 

For the Ravens part, they managed to keep Cincinnati’s offense relatively in check until AJ Green did what AJ Green does and scored on a 77-yard touchdown immediately following an 80-yard Steve Smith TD. The problem is, Baltimore’s run game is anemic, yet again, and with the departure of Ray Rice and the disappointment of Bernard Pierce, it’s unlikely they’ll have anything remotely prepared again this week. The flip side to this is the fact that this might be the fiercest rivalry game in the NFL, with a home loss meaning Baltimore falls to 0-2. Both teams typically play their best defense against each other, and in a low-scoring affair, the Ravens’ much better defense should be the deciding factor.

Baltimore Ravens: 17-13

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0):

I don’t know what Cameron Wake is getting paid, but he should get a raise for Week 1. He spent more time in the backfield with Tom Brady than Stevan Ridley did (that is not a joke), and just about singlehandedly prevented Brady from orchestrating anything in the second half. The Dolphins defense has been a steadily improving unit under head coach Joe Philbin and have completely shut down Brady in each of their last home outings vs. New England. While it’s unlikely they’ll fare as well in Buffalo, where the Bills themselves are coming off an incredible Week 1 win, it should be enough to give young QB EJ Manuel fits. Ryan Tannehill seems to have finally reached the point where we can call him a good starting QB, and if he can play mistake-free, he should be able to turn this game into a shootout. The key for the Dolphins, though, will be whether they can sustain their success on the ground from last week. Knowshon Moreno (and to a smaller degree Lamar Miller) led the league in rushing, shredding a Patriots front seven that was expected to be pretty staunch this season. Moreno clearly wasn’t affected by his offseason surgery, with his cuts looking as quick and sharp as last year, and he played a vital role in keeping Tannehill upright for much of the game. If the Dolphins can establish the run game and dictate the pace, Buffalo will have trouble keeping up.

For Buffalo’s part, the Bills played phenomenally well in Chicago. A healthy Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller combination against the Bears’ porous run D meant an early lead and a way to control the clock late as Chicago mounted multiple comeback attempts. The real focus here, though, is Manuel’s growth. While looking far from an elite quarterback, Manuel was able to make plays both with his arm and his legs, and he made Chicago pay for focusing on rookie phenom Sammy Watkins by connecting with Robert Woods repeatedly, to the tune of 99 yards. The problem with Buffalo, yet again, is how effective its defense can be. Reliant upon turnovers and big plays to mask gaping holes last season, the squad seems to be doing the same thing again this year. Matt Forte put up nearly 200 yards of offense, while an Alshon Jeffery injury is probably the only reason they didn’t give up 200 additional yards. Buffalo should put up points, but the inability of its defense to stop a methodical, efficient attack from the Dolphins will be the deciding factor here.

Miami Dolphins: 27-23

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1):

For a half, Jacksonville looked good, like it was ready to be relevant again. Then the wheels fell off. Rookie Allen Hurns was shut down (after shredding the eagles for 117 yards and two TDs, of course), the run game couldn’t get going, and then there was that small problem of giving up 27 points in the second (another seven came from on a pick-six from a clearly flustered Chad Henne). That said, the signs are there. Gus Bradley finally seems to have the formation of the defense he wants, and if Toby Gerhart lives up to expectations and Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts can finally survive their injuries, Jacksonville’s offense should become effective enough to be considered a threat.

After the entire preseason and the first week, I still don’t know what I’m seeing from Washington. At one point, Robert Griffin III had one of the most egregious lines I’ve ever seen for a QB (something like 17 completions for 96 yards in the first half. How does that yards/completion even happen?). As many weapons as he had at his disposal, the Skins only managed two field goals, against a unit that lost Clowney early. The defense seemed to do its part, limiting Houston to 17 points, but it still allowed 100 yards to Arian Foster and a 76-yard touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, both glaring holes that will cost the Skins games if the offense doesn’t figure things out soon – as in, this week. RGIII should bounce back somewhat in front of his home crowd and a defense that may not have the best front four in the game, and the Jaguars’ mediocre offense will struggle to keep up.

Washington Redskins: 24-17

 

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0):

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the 49ers-Cowboys game, go find highlights of it. It won’t take long, maybe five plays. The defense we all knew was bad was, in fact, atrocious, but the problem here is how bad Tony Romo looked. Shaky from the start, Romo tried forcing plays there simply weren’t there and wound up with three picks, and a DeMarco Murray fumble returned for a touchdown early didn’t help the situation, as it forced Dallas into a pass-only attack in the second quarter. We’ll see this week whether that was an aberration or the norm, but given how thoroughly the Titans’ defense throttled the league’s best player in Jamaal Charles last week, it doesn’t look promising for America’s Team.

The Titans, meanwhile, are coming off a road win of near-blowout proportions, hammered in the Chiefs in both facets of the game. As good as Jake Locker and the rest of the squad looked (and keep in mind, pre-injury 2013 Locker looked equally effective), it was the Titans’ control of the line-of-scrimmage on the other side of the ball that was most impressive. Kansas City fields one of the best offensive lines in football, and the Titans were able to not only limit Charles’ playmaking ability, but to eliminate it completely. Additionally, they forced arguably the most efficient quarterback in football, Alex Smith, into three turnovers, all coming on non-blitz plays. If the Titans can essentially hold Kansas City to three non-garbage-time points, they should be able to easily handle this Cowboys offense.

Tennessee Titans: 31-17

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):

A year into his tenure with the Cardinals, Carson Palmer seems to have found his stride. Facing one of the better defensive backfields in the league, while trailing for much of the second half, Palmer was able to not only throw for 300 yards but to throw no interceptions as well, a performance that’s become all too rare at this point in his career. Most incredibly, he did it almost completely without Larry Fitzgerald’s help. Michael Floyd looked nearly unstoppable, and Andre Ellington, operating at less than 100 percent, was easily the best back on the field that night. And despite numerous injuries, including the recent loss of John Abraham, the Cardinals’ defense continued to look impressive, neatly shutting down Philip Rivers for most of the night. Against a Giants’ offense that more or less doesn’t have a line, the Cardinals should feast this weekend.

New York is in trouble. So much trouble, in fact, that I’m not really sure what to pinpoint as the issue. Eli Manning looks terrible, true, but we’d probably look just as bad behind the offensive line he’s dealing with. Rashad Jennings is the real deal, going up against a very talented Detroit front seven and pretty much having his way, but he’s about the only appeal to that offense. Victor Cruz is clearly not worth the money, Mario Manningham simply didn’t show up, and Larry Donell is the Giants’ starting tight end. Good luck with that, New York. A defense that was among the league’s best just two years ago looked terrible at Detroit on Monday night, trying, and obviously failing, to single cover Calvin Johnson and seemingly incapable of keeping all the Lions’ weapons in check. It won’t get any easier this week, as Arizona fields a passing attack that rivals Detroit’s and should be able to put up points with ease this week.

Arizona Cardinals: 27-20

 

New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0):

In the first half, New England looked like a Super Bowl favorite. In the second, it looked lifeless, on both sides of the ball. Most of that was on the offensive line that, like expected, simply wasn’t ready to face an elite pass rusher like Cameron Wake. Some of it, though, was on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s playcalling. Brady threw the ball 55 times, despite holding the lead for more than half the game, and Shane Vereen was the team’s leading rusher, despite the presence of Ridley and Brandon Bolden. A year ago, New England was the fourth-best rushing team in the NFL, and it all but abandoned that attack when Miami came roaring back. For the defense’s part, it simply allowed Miami to dictate the tempo of the second half, incapable of stopping Moreno despite effectively shutting down the long ball. Unfortunately, with as many weapons as Minnesota has right now, it’ll be completely on the offense to bring home a win from Minnesota.

The Vikings got hit hard by variance last year (a whole bunch of close wins in 2012 turned into a whole bunch of close losses in 2013), but they still brought back one of the league’s best offenses, despite having no true starting quarterback. The defense, no doubt aided by Shaun Hill’s terrible play, and eventual benching, looked ferocious in St. Louis, and with Patterson returning kicks again this year, the special teams should be one of the league’s best. Unfortunately, for the Vikings, Belichick is one of game’s greatest at rebounding from a loss, and it’s unlikely that Brady will so exposed two weeks in a row. The Vikings should put up plenty of points to keep up, but New England should be able to pull one out late.

New England Patriots: 34-31

 

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1):

I honestly don’t have much criticism for the Saints this week. A secondary that was supposed to be one of the league’s elites got lit up, but it was a by a fully healthy Falcons offense that some seemed to have forgotten was one of the league’s best before injuries set in. Drew Brees actually put together his best road performance in two years in arguably the Saints’ most hostile playing environment, and the re-emergence of Mark Ingram means he won’t have to try too hard to carry the offense this season.

Strangely, Cleveland’s offense came alive in the second half against Pittsburgh last week, after Ben Tate and Jordan Cameron both went down with injuries. Andrew Hawkins looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver, and the Terrance West-Isaiah Crowell tandem shredded the Steelers’ defensive line for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns. If Brian Hoyer can keep that kind of offensive production up again this week, the Browns stand a chance, but given a week of film to watch, it’s hard to see New Orleans’ secondary making the same mistakes Pittsburgh did.

New Orleans Saints: 27-20

 

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0):

Shockingly, Matt Ryan appears to still be good at football. I’m not sure how, given arguably the game’s best receiver tandem, a healthy 1,000-yard back and a new offensive line that prefers its quarterbacks in a vertical position, but there it is. Jokes aside, though, if Atlanta avoids the injury bug this year, you’re going to see a lot of those 37-34 scores, because the defense doesn’t look much improved at all. It will do enough against bad offenses to let Ryan seal the game early, but against teams with elite quarterback/wide receiver combos, the Falcons will struggle.
The Bengals, for their part, fall on the low end of that elite combo. Andy Dalton looked as impressive against an improved Baltimore defense as he did for much of last season, and Green is still trying to prove he’s the league’s best receiver. Giovani Bernard, while relatively quiet, still managed to put up almost 100 yards of offense, despite the Ravens clearly keying on him. The loss of Tyler Eifert will limit Dalton’s ability to put up points, but the Bengals’ defense may be the best in the league this year. It absolutely throttled the Ravens on the ground (though a lack of running backs may have some correlation there) and, aside from a fluky 80-yard Steve Smith touchdown, pretty much did the same through the air. They won’t shut down the Falcons this week, but they should be able to do enough to give Dalton a chance to win.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-23

 

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0):

Detroit’s offense moved like a well-oiled machine Monday night, and though the Giants’ clearly aren’t one of the league’s best squads, it’s still difficult to imagine any defense shutting the Lions down, so long as Matt Stafford can play mistake free. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for the past three seasons now. The difference is Jim Caldwell, who, questionable coaching ability aside, has proven his effectiveness at helping quarterbacks to mature. If he’s worked his magic quickly, then Stafford should be able to perform against a ferocious Panthers defense, even with the apparent lack of a running game. The Lions’ secondary, as usual, is the biggest question mark, with nickelback Bill Bentley now out for the season. The Lions are perilously thin back there, and the front seven will have to step up its intensity in order to keep Cam Newton (or possibly Derek Anderson) from having the time to find the flaws in the secondary.

For Carolina’s part, no one expected Anderson to come in and throw for 230 yards against a Lovie Smith defense, especially with the receiving squad Carolina’s fielding. Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin, as expected, carried the bulk of the load, but a solid rushing performance by the aging DeAngelo Williams helped keep the pressure off those two. It’s unlikely the Panthers will be able to work that kind of magic (240 yards from those three combined) two weeks in a row, but they will have to take advantage of the Lions’ only major flaw if they’re going to hold serve at home this weekend.

Detroit Lions: 20-17

 

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1):

The Rams are in trouble. Heaps of it. Shaun Hill has already been yanked, and odds are, it won’t be long until Austin Davis gets seated for Case Keenum. Zac Stacy is a very solid workhorse back, but he’s also not going to put up Peterson-like numbers with the box loaded, leaving St. Louis with very few options on offense. The front four for the Rams’ defense is probably the best in the league, and the defense overall might be a top-five unit, but if it has to be on the field for more than 40 minutes per game, it simply cannot win. And unfortunately, that’s what’s probably going to happen each week until the Rams find some offensive rhythm.

Tampa’s loss didn’t surprise me, but the way the lost did. Josh McCown has been a career journeyman for a reason, and his fourth-quarter performance was nearly enough to put the Bucs back on top, but the defense, which has had a full offseason to develop Lovie’s schemes was simply incapable of stopping what should’ve been an anemic offense for much of the game. Anderson and Benjamin pretty much had their way with the Tampa Bay secondary early. The flip side of this is that Tampa was able to adjust and largely silence Carolina in the second half, showing flashes of what the NFL expected from the new-look Buccaneers. The Rams really only have on offensive option, running, and the Bucs’ should have a field day with that one, easily accounting for any frustrations McCown and Doug Martin might cause on offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-10

 

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-1):

Seattle is a whole other beast at home, that much we know, but it still doesn’t change how impressive they looked. Aaron Rodgers didn’t even try to test Richard Sherman’s side of the field (look at Jarrett Boykin’s 0 targets for 0 yards line), and the rest of the field didn’t give up much more. Granted, Eddie Lacy went down early with a concussion, but the run defense looks much improved from last season’s, arguably Seattle’s biggest weakness. Russell Wilson looked composed against a middle-of-the-road defense, and he used his weapons – Percy Harvin, Marshawn Lynch and his legs – pretty much at will. He’ll face a much stiffer test against the Chargers on the road, but if he can keep his composure, he should still be able to deal serious damage.

San Diego struggled to put up points against the Cardinals, and they’ll likely struggle to do so yet again this week, but this is a much-improved squad from even the end of last season. Philip Rivers looked a little shaky, but Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates still look like they don’t know they’re 30, and Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown provide a solid 1-2 punch that should keep San Diego’s ground game alive this year. Rivers and Co. should be able to put up some points against the Legion of Boom, but the question will come down to whether Eric Weddle and the Chargers’ secondary can prevent any big plays at home, which they should be able to do.

San Diego Chargers: 17-13

 

Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1):

It’s not really fair to use the Redskins as a barometer, but that’s all I have to work with, so I shall. Houston’s defense looks the unit of old, with JJ Watt simply destroying defenses and the secondary refusing to give up any deep looks. The offense looks shaky, and if not for a long Hopkins touchdown, likely would’ve struggled to get close to two touchdowns. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson look hale and healthy, though, and if history serves, that’s about the only offense these Texans will need, especially against units like the Raiders.

At first glance, I thought the Raiders performed somewhat adequately against New York, but even a quick glance at the box score shows just how badly they were mauled. New York racked up more than 500 yards of offense (which leads to the question: How do you only score 19?!), and even though rookie quarterback Derek Carr was effective in his first career start, he had no complementary run game, leaving Oakland with gaping holes on both sides of the ball. Assuming Foster can stay healthy for the entire game, Oakland simply won’t be able to take control of the game’s tempo or its score.

Houston Texans: 24-20

 

New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1):

The biggest fear the Jets had going into the season was their secondary. And after playing the only starting rookie QB in the league this week, nothing happened to assuage those fears. After facing the game’s best secondary in the game’s best home venue a week ago, Rodgers and the Packer offense has to be licking their collective chops. And while Geno Smith looks markedly improved from his rookie year, especially with the addition of Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to go toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

For the Packers’ part, nothing much went right Thursday night, but things typically don’t go right for opponents in Seattle, and it’s impossible to judge a team by that performance. Rodgers is still an elite quarterback, with an incredibly cast surrounding him. The shallow Jets simply won’t be able to stop Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy and whoever lines up at tight end for the Packers this weekend.

Green Bay Packers: 31-17

 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0):

This one could get ugly fast, folks. One of the league’s best offenses a year ago was shut down at home by a defense that Peyton Manning and the Broncos hung 50 on a year ago. After admitting he got away from Charles too much, Andy Reid and the Chiefs should make a concerted effort to get Charles the ball, which means they’ll score points, but a playmaking defense that took a step back during the offseason is unlikely to slow down the Broncos enough to keep up.

For the first half Sunday night, Denver’s offense looked like it hadn’t missed a beat from Week 17. Then it did what has continually gotten it in trouble the past two years: It got complacent. Manning, and whoever his coach is at the time, takes his foot off the gas every time he establishes a big lead, and against a team with another elite QB like Andrew Luck, it could cause disaster. The Broncos spend heavily to upgrade their defense in the offseason, but even this improved unit can’t win if the offense won’t stay on the field. That’s simply a personal issue, though. Talent-wise, there’s simply nothing the Chiefs can do to match up with Denver at home.

Denver Broncos: 37-24

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0):

After watching the Bears for a week, I’ve seen nothing to change my initial assessment that this team is on the way down. The Bears have a dynamic offense, but it performed better under Josh McCown last year than under Jay Cutler, and even a healthy Cutler wasn’t enough to help Chicago outscore Manuel and the Bills. Alshon Jeffery’s injury set the Bears’ offense back a notch, but given that Forte didn’t take off until after Jeffery had left the game, it’s hard to use that as a legitimate excuse for the loss. Instead, let’s focus on the Bears’ three turnovers and a still-not-good defense. The Bears only gave up 360 total yards, but 193 of those came on the ground (granted, against 2013’s best rushing attack) and that’s a number that can’t repeat itself against a Niners squad that features Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and, of course, Colin Kaepernick. Cutler’s biggest knock, aside from injury problems, has been his gunslinger attitude, but that attitude has to change this year if the Bears are going to contend. That offense can compete with anyone, but when an interception essentially means giving up seven points, it gets a lot harder to keep up.

The Niners are another team that will be hard to judge after just one week. The defense avoided becoming a letdown by simply taking the ball away every time the Cowboys’ offense looked away. Kaepernick really didn’t get a chance to show much, as the game was already pretty much sealed by halftime, and almost every pass attempt was complete in the first half. The Bears, though still weak defensively, will likely be a truer test, simply because this should be a shootout. As for the Niners defense, those turnovers will eventually stop coming, but that’s an issue to worry about next week, not this one.

San Francisco 49ers: 34-27

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1):

For a half, it looked like Chip Kelly had been figured out. The league’s third-worst team had shut out the Eagles’ high-flying spread attack and looked like it was going to cruise to an easy 1-0 start. Then Kelly did what good coaches do and adjusted, and the Eagles racked up 27 offensive points in the second half. No one was under the delusion that Nick Foles would put up the same, efficient numbers he displayed last season, but even so, it took him a little while to shake off the rest. Jeremy Maclin is no Desean Jackson, but he seems to fill the void easily enough. The Jaguars made shutting down Lesean McCoy a priority, but that simply left Darren Sproles and Zac Ertz more scoring opportunities, which both took advantage of. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ defense was arguably the more impressive turnaround. A unit that was gashed by no-name Allen Hurns for much of the first half not only shut down Hurns, it silenced every part of the Jaguars’ offense, shutting it out for the half and flustering Henne to the point of throwing a late pick-six to seal the game. They’ll struggle much more against Luck and the Colts, who have far, far more weapons at their disposal than Jacksonville did, but the turnaround was promising.

Speaking of turnarounds, the Colts looked just as bipolar on Sunday night, if only against a far superior opponent. Luck also took a half to get settled in, throwing a couple of picks, but he managed to drag the Colts back into the game with almost 350 total yards and three touchdowns in the last 31 minutes. Defense will be at a premium this game, but Luck and the Colts should hold serve at home in what might be the biggest shootout of the season thus far.

Indianapolis Colts: 37-31