Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 33-15-0
Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-0):
Raise your
hand if you’re a little concerned with how Green Bay’s offense has started off
this season. Good, that should be just about everyone in America, outside of
Chicago. The Packers have been subpar at best on the offensive side of the ball
through three games, getting hammered in Seattle and (to a lesser degree) in
Detroit, and having to climb out of a three-touchdown hole at home against the
Jets. Those are not the marks of a talented team struggling through a tough
schedule. Jordy Nelson has been his usual amazing self, but Aaron Rodgers has
looked shaky (shaky offensive lines tend to pass that characteristic onto their
QBs) and Eddie Lacy simply hasn’t looked like anything so far this season. The
defense has played well in its last six quarters, holding New York and the
Lions to 15 combined points on offense, but in as high-powered a division as
the NFC North, it’s offense that will determine Green Bay’s success. They’ll
finally face a weaker defense in the Bears this week, which should alleviate
some of the stress they’ve seen on that side.
For Chicago’s
part, all I keep thinking about is how good they’re making the Bills look right
now. Granted, the Niners look like they’ve backslid a bit this year, and the
Jets are hardly elite, but after dropping a shocking home opener to Buffalo in
Week 1, the Bears have simply traveled some 6,000 miles in the past two weeks
and won two games in convincing fashion. The problem is, the run game hasn’t
gotten going yet, and a relatively weak defense, which was shredded by a
terrible-looking Geno Smith last week, has been able to mask its incompetencies
by repeated huge plays. Those kinds of plays don’t typically happen against a
quarterback like Rodgers, though, and that could cause problems for the Bears.
Green Bay Packers: 31-27
Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston
Texans (2-1):
Buffalo
looked sloppy against San Diego last week in pretty much all facets. No one
will mistake EJ Manuel for Russell Wilson any time in the near future, but he’s
going to have to do more than get half of his 238 passing yards from running
backs if he’s going to make defenses back out of the back. The run game was
bottled up, and everything in Buffalo is predicated around the run game. Another
stout performance by the Bills’ surprising defense shone through this week,
holding Donald Brown to just 62 yards on 31 carries, but it simply won’t be
enough if the offense can’t exhibit some form of ball control in the coming
weeks.
The Texans,
for their part, have been one of the most enigmatic teams in football. After
holding a – we think – potent Washington offense to six points in Week 1, then
blasting the Raiders on the road, Houston was annihilated in New York last
week. A huge part of that had to do with Arian Foster registering a DNP, but he
didn’t account for the defense, which, normally stout, simply could not slow
down the Giants. They should struggle again today against the Bills’ rushing
attack, but with Foster back in, at home, Houston should be able to dictate the
pace of the game and keep it from getting out of hand again.
Houston Texans: 20-17
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at
Indianapolis Colts (1-2):
What looked
like a promising season after Week 1 already seems to have gone down the drain.
The Titans defense, so effective at bottling up Jamaal Charles and rattling
Alex Smith, has been shredded in two consecutive weeks by two of the best
running backs in the NFL. That’s put pressure on what should be an elite
secondary to come up big, and it simply hasn’t been able to for 60 minutes at a
time. Add to that, man-of-glass Jake Locker is unlikely to play this week, and
any chance the Titans have of keeping pace in what may be a shootout is
diminishing quickly.
Indianapolis,
meanwhile, finally put everything together last week, albeit against the
hapless Jags. Andrew Luck has looked phenomenal to start this season, and there’s
no reason to think a home match against the reeling Titans will be different.
Indy doesn’t feature an elite rushing attack, but a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw is
dangerous, and he should do enough to keep the Titans from backing off and
focusing on Luck’s receiving weapons.
Indianapolis Colts: 31-17
Carolina Panthers (2-1) at
Baltimore Ravens (2-1):
I have no
idea what happened in Carolina last week. I know Cam Newton still isn’t
healthy, and I know Le’Veon Bell may be the best young back in the NFL, but
that doesn’t excuse the egg the Panthers laid on both sides of the ball. A
stout defense, with arguably the best linebacking corps in the NFL, was unable
to contain Bell all night, and Carolina moved the ball effectively for two,
maybe three, drives the entire game. That’s going to be a problem this week
against a Baltimore defense that’s looking more and more like their old 2012
selves. Both Cam and DeAngelo Williams should be active, which will give the
Panthers a much more dynamic attack, but it may still not be enough this week.
For
Baltimore’s part, a last-second field-goal victory over the Browns seems to be what
everybody’s doing this year, and it’s hardly a knock on them. Holding Cinci to
just three scores on Opening Day, then Pittsburgh to just two field goals four
days later is much more indicative of how this team should perform against
Carolina this week. Plus, Steve Smith has been on fire to start the season, and
he’ll be looking to show his former team just how valuable he still is. With
the Ravens’ biggest weak link – the running game – finally coming together,
despite a true No. 1 back, Baltimore should be able to slip by the Panthers.
Baltimore Ravens: 20-17
Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York
Jets (1-2):
I don’t know
what I’m watching in Detroit. A shaky secondary somehow managed to bottle up Aaron
Rodgers, but got shredded in a half against a nearly weapon-less Cam Newton.
Matt Stafford, a 5,000-yard quarterback, seems to have regressed under a highly
touted QB coach, despite adding two new weapons to the offense, but still
manages to show flashes of brilliance when least expected. Put simply: I have
no idea what Lions team will show up this week. But with a Jets’ defense that
almost perfectly mirrors Detroit’s own, coupled with a unique running attack in
Reggie Bush, leads me to believe that the Lions should find this matchup much
more accommodating than their last road trip to Carolina.
New York,
for its part, seems to be headed in the right direction, despite dropping two winnable
games in a row. Geno Smith may have looked awful, but he still put up 317 yards
on the Bears, and Chris Johnson/Ivory seem to have created a solid backfield,
as well. The biggest issue is a secondary that has been absolutely blitzed by
the NFC North in the last two weeks, and it’s unlikely they’ll get any reprieve
as they try to shut down the best receiver in the game this week. If Smith can
play efficiently and score every time he’s given an opportunity, this game
should be good. If not, well, it’s a long road to keeping Rex Ryan’s job.
Detroit Lions: 27-20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at
Pittsbugh Steelers (2-1):
I didn’t buy
into the idea that the Bucs could rack up double digit wins or surprise their
division, but I did think it would be a solid team. And I still think it will
be, by year’s end. Unfortunately, right now it’s pretty much a dumpster fire. The
Josh McCown experiment seems to be tabled for the foreseeable future, and the
Logan Mankins trade hasn’t been enough to consistently shore up the offensive
line. The Steelers’ defense is relatively weak, compared to the rest of the AFC
North, but Tampa struggled to score points against Atlanta, and they’ll need
just as many this week against a Steelers offense that looks capable of playing
whatever style it wants.
The Steelers’
offense has looked near-unstoppable twice and near-incompetent once. The
difference? Antonio Brown missing half a game, and a short week in arguably
their most hostile environment in the league. I’m willing to give a pass on
that performance for now. Bell and Antonio Brown have simply been unstoppable
this season, and Roethlisberger, though looking a little shaky this season, has
been doing more than enough to keep the ball moving as well. Pittsburgh will
struggle to contain a Tampa offense that does have some talented weapons, but
it should score enough points to overcome that.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 31-21
Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland
Raiders (0-3):
At this
point, pretty much everyone in Miami is playing for his job. A satisfying win
over New England in the season opener seems like a distant memory after blowout
losses at the Bills and to the Chiefs at home. Miami’s defense, after holding
New England scoreless for the entire second half, seems at a loss as to how to
stop the running game … or a team’s best receiver, for that matter. Lamar
Miller has looked much improved this season, but he’s still a significant
dropoff from Knowshon Moreno, and Ryan Tannehill is clearly a couple wrong
moves from being benched by a coach who knows a few more losses may mean the
end of his tenure.
On the flip
side, Oakland desperately needed a real home game, not a ceremonial one in
England. The Raiders are staring at 0-4, with no surefire way to prevent it. Khalil
Mack has looked every bit the part of a top-10 pick, but pretty much everything
else about that defense is a dumpster fire. It’s completely incapable of
stopping the run, which is a problem, since Miami will likely lean heavily on
Miller to shoulder the burden the of this game. On offense, Derek Carr looks like a solid QB, and James
Jones is slowly coming into his own, but hobbled Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren
McFadden, as well as weak remaining wide receiver threats mean that is about
the only threat Oakland poses to opposing defenses. The Raiders will get their
first win soon, but it won’t be this week.
Miami Dolphins: 23-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San
Diego Chargers (2-1):
After one
half of football this season, Jacksonville looked like it was ready to contend with
the best the NFL had to offer. Then the floor fell out. The Jags have given up
119 points in the last ten quarters, while scoring just 27, and many of those
points came during garbage time. Toby Gerhart simply is not living up to
expectations, and the Jaguars’ receivers are sharing injuries around like sisters
trade clothes. The defense may as well not shown up this season, ranking dead
last in literally everything, something that has to sit heavily on Gus Bradley,
who was hired specifically for his defensive prowess. Like the Raiders, things
will improve, especially with Blake Bortles now under center for the
foreseeable future, but it won’t happen soon enough.
San Diego,
for its part, hasn’t had a weak performance yet this season. A close loss at
Arizona, followed by a home win against the reigning Super Bowl champs and a
blowout win at the AFC East-leading Bills, indicates San Diego is legitimate by
every metric. The loss of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead will slow down the
Chargers’ offense some, but Philip Rivers has hardly utilized the weapons at
his disposal, seemingly rotating through receivers one game at a time, and the
defense, though not stellar, has managed to bottle up several strong offenses,
and Jacksonville does not have one of those. Look for Keenan Allen to get his
turn as the breakout receiver this week and for the Chargers to roll to an easy
3-1 quarter pole.
San Diego Chargers: 31-20
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San
Francisco 49ers (1-2):
Philly may
be 3-0, but it certainly hasn’t made things easy on itself, having to dig out
of a 17-point halftime hole against Jacksonville, needing a last-second FG to
overcome Indy, and then barely holding off a Washington offense that really
hasn’t looked good otherwise. Nick Foles hasn’t looked anything like his 2013
self, though he seems to have gained some of that poise back in the last week
or so, and Lesean McCoy just doesn’t look like anything right now. If not for
the addition of Darren Sproles, the Eagles are very likely holding a 1-2 record
coming into San Francisco (or Santa Clara or wherever they decided to stick the
new stadium and still call it “home”).
The Niners are
pretty much the exact opposite, blowing double-digit leads at home against Chicago
and on the road at Arizona, despite looking like an all-around solid team. The
defense has dealt with free agency, serious injuries and ridiculous media
campaigns and still managed to hold as a top-10 unit, but the offense has some
serious question marks. Playcalling that saw the Niners run the ball only nine times at Arizona last week, despite
holding a large lead and a four-turnover day by Colin Kaepernick two weeks ago
are major factors in why this team is not 3-0. The Niners have moved the ball so
easily it almost looks lazy (seriously, just check out their box against the
Cowboys), yet they’ve struggled to put teams away each of the last two weeks.
That should change this week as desperation starts to set in, though.
San Francisco 49es: 27-24
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota
Vikings (1-2):
If an NFL
team can look perfect, Atlanta did so last Thursday, looking every bit like the
team that was perennial NFC favorites until last year. Julio Jones has stayed
healthy so far, and Matt Ryan apparently enjoys running for his life, because
he’s on pace for a career year, and the committee the Falcons are running out
of the backfield, spearheaded by Stephen Jackson, seems to be getting the job
done as well. The problem is, the defense. A squad decimated by injuries last
year didn’t really improve; it simply acquired new aging veterans replace the
old aging, now-injured veterans from last year, and it may only be a matter of
time until the effects of that start to kick in. The Falcons were incapable of
stopping either Cincinnati or New Orleans earlier in the season, and Minnesota,
even without Adrian Peterson, has enough weapons to keep even a solid defense
on its toes.
Minnesota
has had more than its fair share of problems in the last few weeks. Right when
it looks like the Vikings are settling down and coming to terms with the loss
of Adrian Peterson, Matt Cassel broke several bones in his foot and is out for
the season. Teddy Bridgewater was supposed to be the quarterback of the future,
not the present, and he’ll need to have a quick growth curve for the Vikings to
stay in the discussion. Thankfully, a defense that was expected to be another
year or two away from dominance has stepped up, ranking 12th in the
pass, 15th in the rush, despite spending way too much time on the
field in each of the last two games. It won’t be enough to stop the Falcons,
but it should keep the game closer.
Atlanta Falcons: 27-17
New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas
Cowboys (2-1):
I’m torn on
New Orleans here. On the one hand, they’ve lost eight straight road games and
have simply been incapable of stopping opposing passing attacks when it matters
most, despite specifically targeting secondary players during free agency. On
the other, it’s Drew Brees, Sean Payton and the Saints, and they simply do not
go 1-3. The problem is, Brees is missing his best runner, which used to not
matter as much, but with Marques Colston clearly showing his age this year,
defenses draping Jimmy Graham and rookie Brandin Cooks, and a huge dropoff in
receiving talent from there, Brees just does not have as many options as he
used to. That said, streaks will eventually break, and the Saints are too good
to fall two games back in the division already.
Dallas, for
its part, has pulled just about every trick in the book to get to 2-1. After a
lousy blowout loss to start the season, DeMarco Murray simply ran over and
through the Titans, and Tony Romo and Dez Bryant worked some miracles in order
to surge back against the Rams last week. The defense hasn’t played well, but
it’s far from the unearned moniker of “worst defense in history” that many
people were giving it in the preseason. Unfortunately, a “not terrible” defense
tends to look horrific against Drew Brees, and the Cowboys, and Murray can only
average 27 touches per game for so long before he starts to wear down. If the
Cowboys can’t run the clock and keep Brees’ possessions to a minimum, this game
could get out of hand quickly.
New Orleans Saints: 31-27
New England Patriots (2-1) at
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2):
The trade of
Logan Mankins was a pretty clear sign there would be some issues in New England
coming into the season, but I don’t think anyone thought there’d be this much
trouble. The Patriots struggled mightily in the second half in Miami, got help from
several key defensive plays in Minnesota, and managed to put up just 16 points
on an Oakland defense that should not be considered good by any means. Stevan
Ridley seems to have played himself back into the rotation, but he and Julian
Edelman aside, the Patriots have looked lost. Tom Brady still looks like a
field general, but his passing is noticeably off, Rob Gronkowski hasn’t been on
the field enough to be a game change, and the dynamic Shane Vereen just seems
to be ignored. Fortunately, the team seems to have reverted to its pre-2007
days, with a defensive squad that might just be among the league’s elite this
year. Despite being up at least two scores in each of their games, that squad
still manages to lead the league in pass defense, and with a “mediocre” run
defense giving up only 104 yards per game, it should more than do its part to
carry New England this season.
The Chiefs
are coming off their first win of the season, a blowout win at Miami, without
their best player on the field. The defense has already suffered some serious
injuries and will be missing Eric Berry this week, which could spell trouble if
Edelman or Gronk get behind their coverages, but Andy Reid seems to have gone
back to what made this squad successful last season, running the ball and
relying on efficiency. The emergence of Travis Kelce means that Alex Smith now
has a true No. 1 receiving threat, which should keep defenses honest, and
against a Patriots’ squad that struggled to slow Moreno down at all in Week 1,
the Chiefs should be able to gash New England and keep Brady off the field at
the same time.
Kansas City Chiefs: 21-17
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