I heard a sportscaster say last week that there are more
upsets in Week 1 than in any other week of the year. Don’t know if that’s true,
but I like that, and I’m gonna use it, because my picks … yeesh. Not only did I
say the Bills would beat the Jets, I said the two teams would combine for 19
points. The Bills outscored that total by 9 … and lost by three touchdowns. I
said the Panthers would beat the Buccaneers 30-24, and the two combined for
just 26 points (with the Panthers losing, of course). In my defense, this was
one of the highest-scoring opening weeks in NFL history, and no one, no one, saw the Jets thing coming.
But there were some emergent storylines that a lot of people
did see coming. Peyton Manning is back on orange, and it seems to suit his style
of play. New England has already established itself as one of the year’s elite,
although the way the Patriots did so was a little surprising. In the NFC, the
49ers did the same, dismantling the Packers by dominating on both sides of the
ball. But now we’re in arguably the most important week of the season for most
of these teams, where the winless teams try to pull themselves back up to the
forefront while the unbeaten try to prove that their Week 1 wins weren’t simple
flukes. So here we go:
Kansas City
Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1):
I think most people expected the Chiefs to drop one to the
Falcons, even if it was at home. I don’t think people expected the Chiefs to do
so in such abysmal fashion. Jamaal Charles looked good despite his ACL tear, but
that was about the only upside to Sunday for Kansas City. The defense was
shredded by the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem, and Matt Cassel’s mundane
performance was salvaged only by lots of garbage-time yards and a TD in the
fourth. The thing is, don’t expect this to change much. Romeo Crennel was fired
from Cleveland for a reason. He’s a good defensive coordinator who is in over
his head as a full-on head coach.
As for Buffalo, nobody saw that debacle coming. The Bills
were run roughshod by an offense that appeared to be split by the San Andreas
Fault as recently as a week ago, and struggled to put up points to match until
late in the second half. However, that game struck as more of a fluke than
anything. Buffalo’s offense got its act together as the game went on, and given
a couple more starts, Ryan Fitzpatrick and C.J. Spiller should be able to get
that offense revving again. When Fred Jackson returns, the Bills will have more
weapons than they know what to do with. No Jackson this week, but as shaky as
the Chiefs looked last week, and as good as Spiller looked, I think Buffalo
will rebound well this week.
Buffalo
Bills: 24-17
Cleveland
Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0):
It’s really too early to judge Cleveland by any metric. The
defense looked like a standard Browns defense, forcing four picks from Michael
Vick and holding LeSean McCoy to less than 60 yards rushing The offense,
however, was abysmal. Of course, when your starting quarterback, running back
and wide receiver are all rookies, it’s hard to expect much better. And the
Bengal defense will be no slouch this week either.
For the Bengals, it doesn’t get much worse than last week,
getting smashed by a rival after keeping it close for a half. I wouldn’t worry
too much about it, though. Coach Marvin Lewis elected to kick the field goal on
4th-and-goal from (I think) the 1-yard-line, and Andy Dalton threw a
regrettable pick that turned into an even more regrettable touchdown. It
doesn’t mean this Bengals team isn’t talented; it just means that to get to
great, they need to be on the giving end of those big plays. Andy Dalton to
A.J. Green – as well as Andrew Hawkins,
it seems – should be one of the better passing squads in the league, and if
you’re a Bengals fan, you have to love what you saw from BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
And I have a feeling you’ll see a lot more of him this week as he leads the
Bengals past Cleveland.
Cincinnati
Bengals: 17-10
Minnesota
Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1):
The Vikings cannot feel good about themselves right now.
Yes, they’re 1-0, but they did so despite giving up 350 yards to Jacksonville,
one of the league’s worst offenses, which didn’t even have its playmaker,
Maurice Jones-Drew, for all of training camp. The Vikings’ trademark for years
has been their runstopping D, and it did little to stop Rashaad Jennings or
Jones-Drew, and it did even less to stop an average Blaine Gabbert for going
for nearly 250 yards. Luckily for Minnesota, Reggie Wayne will be out this
game, and Adrian Peterson has clearly progressed faster than was anticipated,
so the Vikings should stay competitive.
Meanwhile, Andrew Luck got indoctrinated into the NFL in a
painful way last week. Despite his three picks, Luck’s performance wasn’t
terrible, and he made some brilliant passes throughout the game. Defensively,
the Colts forced a turnover and scored a touchdown last week, so it’s not all
doom and gloom for Indianapolis’ D, but it’s definitely not stellar, either.
Thankfully, Minnesota’s defense should be an easier draw than last week’s
Bears’ D, so the Colts should be able to hang enough points to escape with this
one.
Indianapolis
Colts: 31-27
Oakland
Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1):
Still not entirely sure why everyone’s ragging on Carson
Palmer. He only threw for 300 yards and a touchdown, and San Diego’s pass
defense isn’t exactly shabby. Obviously, though, McFadden and the ground game
are going to have to do better than a 2 yard-per-carry average if Dennis Allen
wants to stick around longer than his short-lived predecessors. The Raiders
defense, on the other hand, could be something to watch. There’s not much you
can do if your offense turns the ball over inside your 40 three times, but each
time, the defense held the Chargers to a field goal. Give it a field to work with,
and that D might be scary.
I worry for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill wasn’t awful in his
debut, and the Texans defense is one of the league’s elites, but there were a
lot of mistakes last week. A lot. Reggie Bush seemed like the only player on
that squad, and if that’s the case, it won’t be hard to bottle up the Dolphins’
offense, and that defense isn’t good enough to win games on its own, this week
especially, where a healthy Raiders offense gives Miami too many guys to key on.
Oakland
Raiders: 24-14
Arizona
Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0):
I like the Cardinals (obviously, since I have them going to
the playoffs), and their defense was solid against a Seattle team littered with
potentially explosive playmakers. But that offense was horrendous last week.
John Skelton looked like a scared backup who got tossed into the game by some
sort of fluke, and had he not been knocked out, it’s likely I’d be really
worried about my dark-horse pick right now. But Kevin Kolb finally has his
shot, and he made good on it last week, and he has a couple games to prove
himself this time.
Of course, that’s going to be hard against the Patriots in
Foxboro. Steven Ridley looks like the perfect addition to an already
juggernaut-like offense, and Brandon Lloyd’s field-stretching abilities make
Brady and his tight ends even more dangerous. After last week’s performance,
it’s gotta make you wonder where Wes Welker fits into the formula now. The
thing I’m most impressed with in New England, though, is the secondary. Jake
Locker and the Titans have plenty of receiving talent on their hands, but –
fluke touchdown from Nate Washington notwithstanding – New England’s secondary
managed to hold off any big plays Tennessee went for, despite Locker’s
mobility. The question now, though, is how well they hold off an established
receiver like Larry Fitzgerald. My guess: pretty well.
New England
Patriots: 37-17
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):
The Bucs’ defense looked great in holding Carolina to less
than 20 yards rushing and forcing Cam Newton into numerous mistakes, but the
offense looked downright pedestrian. Quarterback Josh Freeman looked OK at
best, while Doug Martin/LeGarette Blount couldn’t find the holes at all. That’s
not going to work on the road against a talent-laden offense like New York’s.
The Giants, meanwhile, didn’t exactly struggle on offense,
but they didn’t look good either. Ahmad Bradshaw did well, but David Wilson
clearly isn’t where the Giants staff would like him to be yet, and Victor Cruz
and Hakeem Nicks managed to disappear for some long stretches against Dallas.
Granted, the Cowboys defense was vastly improved with its new depth in the
secondary and Tampa should struggle to contain Eli Manning’s passing attack for
a second straight week.
New York
Giants: 24-16
Baltimore
Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0):
The Ravens looked good Monday night, didn’t they? Ed Reed
did what Ed Reed does (score from the defensive side) and Joe Flacco did what
Joe Flacco does. Wait, no he didn’t. Flacco looked like a star Monday, which is
definitely not his trademark, spreading the ball all over the place. Ray Rice
was his usual exceptional self, averaging close to 7 ypc, in addition to a
strong receiving game. The key to that game, though, was Flacco. The Ravens
have the pieces to be nearly unstoppable for maybe another season or two, but
Flacco is the catalyst that will gel this team together or dissolve it.
For the Eagles, though, a four-pick performance by Vick
needs to just be shaken off as a bad day. The defense gave a young Cleveland
team fits, but it’ll have to be spot on with its usual trickeration if it hopes
to contain Flacco2.0. The Eagles have to be confident about establishing a
running game this week after seeing the work Green-Ellis did on the Ravens’
front seven. He was unstoppable, and McCoy is a MUCH better back. That said,
this game comes down to Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson. Vick has plenty of
talent around him to win games without those two, but if both are no-gos, it
becomes a whole lot harder. My guess is that at least one, maybe both, will go
this week, and the Eagles will manage to hold off Flacco’s coronation for at
least a week.
Philadelphia
Eagles: 27-24
New Orleans
Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1):
Welp, didn’t expect that mess in the Superdome. Drew Brees
looked completely out of sorts, and the Saints D had absolutely no answer for
Robert Griffin III. We’ve seen this offensive look from the Saints before, when
Sean Payton wasn’t able to call plays for several weeks a couple years ago.
Brees is an unbelievable passing talent, but asking him to manage such an
intricate offense and be able to make the plays he does, especially with a
gimpy Marques Colston, the loss of Robert Meachem, and a still-slacking run game,
seems like an impossible task. But Colston should be back this week, and Brees
won’t have two bad games in a row.
The Panthers, though … There’s not really much to say. The
defense performed well, but it they didn’t exactly face a juggernaut, while a late
touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell was the only reason Cam had any green on the
box score. Granted, Jonathan Stewart was out this week, he’s not a critical
part of this offense. Carolina has built a team on the premise that Newton can
be dynamic week in and week out, and it doesn’t matter how much this defense
has improved, if he hits the sophomore slump, this team will fade fast.
New Orleans
Saints: 21-17
Houston
Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1):
The Texans didn’t look unstoppable against Miami, but they
looked efficient and relentless. As expected, the defense didn’t seem to miss
Mario Williams, and Arian Foster, despite an injury, was serviceable, while
Andre Johnson reminded everyone of why he’s considered an elite receiver.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, struggled against the NFC North’s
weakest team, and managed to give up the game-tying field goal in less than 13
seconds of clock time. That’s not only bad defense, that’s bad discipline, and
it doesn’t bode well for the Jaguars chances against a strong offense like
Houston’s. Don’t expect this one to come down to a miracle drive.
Houston
Texans: 34- 17
Washington
Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1):
I’m really looking forward to this matchup. People expected
RGIII to perform, but I don’t think anyone quite expected what he did to the
Saints last week, throwing for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, with no
interceptions. Pierre Garcon suffered a mild leg injury but should be back in
the lineup, and some rookie named Alfred Morris managed to steal the starting
slot at running back – for this week at least – and gash the Saints for 100
yards and 2 TDs. Meanwhile, the ‘Skins secondary did what it normally did,
swallowing up receivers and making plays all game long. If I’m coach Mike
Shanahan, I’m really confident about my chances this season.
Of course, then you have Jeff Fisher’s Rams, who didn’t just
keep the Lions close, they looked good doing so. Cortland Finnegan made an
immediate impact in the secondary with a pick-six, and Sam Bradford managed to
find enough holes in the Detroit secondary to make plays when he needed to.
Steven Jackson only managed 53 yards on the ground, but it’s impossible to
gauge that mark against a front line like Detroit’s. Unfortunately for St.
Louis, Washington’s defense isn’t nearly as porous, so it’ll come down to how
well RGIII handles Fisher’s defense, which should be: well.
Washington
Redskins: 23-14
Dallas
Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1):
We got what we expected out of the Cowboys’ offense: a solid
running game and a stat-happy passing attack (even if Michael Ogletree was new
to the scene). And I knew the Cowboys had shored up their defense, but I was
still somewhat surprised by how aggressive it was last Wednesday, all but
shutting down an exceptional New York passing attack. Dallas hasn’t had a bad
defense in years (first with Wade Phillips, now Rob Ryan), but it has also
rarely played like the league’s elite. The Boys will get another chance against
several talented playmakers in Seattle.
As for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson was on par with Luck,
maybe a little worse, with his performance. On the game’s final drive, he did
what he needed to do, but Braylon Edwards (in a shocking twist) couldn’t hold
onto the ball in the end zone. I didn’t see the game, so I can’t say whether
the Seattle defense was that improved or if John Skelton was explaining why he
shouldn’t be considered a full-time NFL starter, but given the D’s performance
last week, along with the playmaking abilities of the Seahawks’ entire
offensive skill set, as well as special teams, I think they’ll settle nicely
back into the spoiler role they inherited last year.
Seattle
Seahawks: 20-17
New York
Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1):
Well… I have no words. Except maybe wow. The Jets didn’t
just show up with an offense; they put on a clinic unmatched by anyone in the
league (save maybe the Ravens. Weird, right?). If Stephen Hill can continues
performing like that, he could be a scary new addition to Shonn Greene and
Santonio Holmes. The defense did what it always does, giving the Bills fits for
most of the game before finally relenting late, but it’ll have to be much stingier
down the stretch with Darrelle Revis out for this week’s match.
The Steelers were about what I expected. The defense was
solid, but just couldn’t stop Peyton Manning enough to make a difference, while
the offense struggled on the ground and looked confused on the passing game.
Ben Roethlisberger struggled to find a rhythm on the game’s early drives, and a
lot seemed to have to do with the playcalling. Once he was able to switch
things up a bit, though, he fell into a solid rhythm, broken only by a lone
interception … that happened to be the game-sealing one. Pitt will be missing Troy
Polamalu and James Harrison this week, but my bet is that the Jets can’t keep
up this 48 points-per-game pace.
Pittsburgh
Steelers: 27-20
Tennessee
Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0):
Tennessee’s offense looked shaky and out of sorts for most
of Sunday’s game against the Patriots. Locker didn’t seem comfortable at all,
flushing out of the pocket constantly during the game. I don’t know if he’s
ready for full-time starter duties, but the Titans definitely seemed like they
were just following the trend of passing the mantle to the young QB before the
season began, which may have been a mistake here. As for Chris Johnson,
apparently getting money was enough for him, as he has been horribly
ineffective since signing that contract last year. The Titans defense wasn’t
great but played decently, given the field position it was forced into and the
offense it faced. Tennessee should be able to regroup down the stretch, but
they’re not going to be able to do it in time to win this one in San Diego.
Philip Rivers put up decent numbers, with few mistakes, in
the Chargers’ season opener, which is exactly what San Diego needs. The ground
game struggled to get going, but that’s what happens when an aging Ronnie Brown
tries to replace both Ryan Mathews (clavicle) and Mike Tolbert (free agent).
The defense played well with a bend-don’t-break attitude, forcing several
turnovers on special teams, deep in Oakland territory. The one major concern I
have with San Diego, though, was that, despite incredible field position on
three different drives, the Chargers’ offense only managed three field goals.
Could be a problem going forward, but this one shouldn’t be close enough to
matter.
San Diego
Chargers: 31-17
Detroit
Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0):
Not looking forward to this at all. The Lions have their
woes (completely inept secondary, lack of discipline, a running game that
hinges on oft-injured backs and a quarterback that can’t seem to stay
consistent), but even with a solid game, this matchup does not favor Detroit.
The Lions’ defensive front looked about as good as expected going into the
season, but the secondary also looked about as bad as expected, seemingly
incapable of stopping Sam Bradford when it needed to. That said, as badly as
Matt Stafford played for huge chunks of Sunday’s contest, he was still able to
pull it together to deliver the last-minute win. Calvin Johnson was every bit
as dangerous as last year, and Kevin Smith seemed to find holes that shouldn’t
have been there. It won’t be enough to get past the Niners’ defense, but it
should make finding the end zone easier going forward.
As for San Francisco, well, there’s not much to say. The
Niners hammered Green Bay on both sides of the ball, only letting it get close
when Rodgers began airing it out, even then holding him on a four-and-out late
in the game. This is the exact same defense we got used to last year, and if
anything, it seems much more solid. In the offense lie the questions, though. Alex
Smith doesn’t have to be great, but he does need to stay efficient. Ensuring
that the defense has a long field to work with every time will go a long way
towards victory, while Frank Gore and his backups will have to be able to keep
making plays without wearing themselves down. Randy Moss already made his
presence in the red zone know, so that should make it a little easier down
there for Gore. Eventually, the Niners will come back to Earth, but it won’t be
against Detroit this week.
San
Francisco 49ers: 31-25
Denver
Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0):
I wasn’t surprised by Manning’s ability to jump back into
the saddle (I mean, statistically, he is the greatest quarterback ever), but I
was surprised at how methodical and efficient he was once he was allowed to
take the reins of the offense over. Unlike what I said about Brees earlier,
Manning seems hampered when he’s not allowed to make adjustments on the fly and
seems to prefer the stress. Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee have to make his
life easier with a solid running game, while that Denver D seems like it should
only improve in the coming weeks.
Of course, Manning wasn’t the only successful quarterback
last week. Matt Ryan put on a clinic when he carved up the Chiefs’ secondary in
Kansas City. His chemistry with Julio Jones already seems scary good, and Roddy
White and Tony Gonzalez weren’t exactly scrubs. In addition, Atlanta managed to
hold KC to 17 points until garbage time, which means that coach Mike Smith
seems to have found the problem with his defense during the offseason. As good
as the Falcons looked last week, though, I still don’t think they’ll be quite
prepared to face Manning. (They’ve never played before.) I know this is in
Atlanta, but the Falcons’ run game has to get going in order to chew the clock,
because if and when it comes down to a QB showdown, it’s going to be Manning
over Ryan.
Denver Broncos:
24-20
Last week:
10-6-0
Overall:
10-6-0
