Week 3 Predictions - 2012

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1):

I know the Rams haven’t really faced a serviceable defense yet, but I’m still impressed by what Sam Bradford is doing. Stephen Jackson has been hampered so far this year, and his best playmaker is Danny Amendola (a No. 2 at best on nearly any other NFL team) and the Rams are still putting up points. Of course, let’s be honest: This game is going to come down to Jay Cutler. Will good Jay or bad Jay show up? The Bears are easily the better team, but St. Louis is competitive enough to give Chicago a scare if its offense doesn’t click. Expect Chicago (and Cutler) to do just enough to pull this one out.

Chicago Bears: 31-24

 

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-2):

The Browns offense was much improved last week, gashing the Bengals through the air and, especially, on the ground. I don’t think the young squad has officially become a real NFL offense yet, but they’re good enough to make plays now. The defense gave up way more against a decent Bengals offense than it should’ve, though, and that has to be music to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ears. With C.J. Spiller lining up behind him and Stevie Johnson slowly returning to full health, Fitz should have enough tools to pull this one out on the road.

Buffalo Bills: 25-17

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1):

I don’t know what to think about Tampa Bay. One week, it’s a staunch defensive team that can shut down Cam Newton (though the Giants showed that may not be too hard this year), the next, they give up 600+ yards to Eli Manning and the Giants, while Josh Freeman and co. can score against a porous Carolina defense but hang 34 on the G-Men. Of course, same goes for Dallas, but I think we’ve all come to expect that from Tony Romo. Look for the home field and the defense of Rob Ryan to be the deciding factors in this matchup.

Dallas Cowboys: 21-17

 

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-2):

I gotta say, I’m pleasantly surprised by Detroit’s defense so far. It hasn’t been good by any stretch, but it also hasn’t been nearly as horrendous as I thought it may be. On the flip side, I expected the Titans to start off 0-2, despite picking them for the wild card. I did not expect them to get run out of the building two games in a row. Jake Locker is clearly not prepared to be a full-time NFL starter, and I’m pretty sure the Titans are starting to realize they may have rushed into things with him. Of course, his performance has no effect on how the O-line plays. Chris Johnson has 21 yards rushing, 23 of them after contact. You read that right. He’s averaging getting hit in the backfield. That’s unreal and something that has to be fixed (especially considering Mike Munchak is an OL-turned-HC) if the Titans plan to make a run this season.

Detroit Lions: 27-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1):

Jacksonville managed to make at least a couple of respectable games last season on the basis of its defense. Now that that’s gone, and Blaine Gabbert clearly isn’t what the Jaguars were looking for in a future QB, I really don’t see this team gaining traction. This is probably the best shot the Jags have at winning during the first three weeks, but considering Andrew Luck’s progression from Week 1 to last, I don’t see it happening.

Indianapolis Colts: 24-20

 

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1):

I still refuse to believe that New York’s Week 1 explosion was indicative of anything this season. Mark Sanchez has consistently not led a high-powered attack throughout his career (and no, Tim Tebow will not do any better), so, flukey games aside, I think Week 2 was more what you should expect again this week. This game will come down to how well the Jets can contain Reggie Bush. Tannehill isn’t spectacular, but he is showing that he can be dangerous if given shots, so if New York can’t contain Bush without giving up the big play, it could be in trouble. And based off how consistently good Bush has been over the last several games, I like Miami’s abilities here.

Miami Dolphins: 23-20

 

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1):

The Vikings can do one thing well: run the ball. Of all the things San Francisco can do well, it stops the run best. Can’t say I like the Vikings chances here. As for the Niners, after running through three NFC North teams in the first three weeks of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex Smith requested a trade to one of them just so he can see these secondaries every week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-17

 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2):

On paper, the Saints have to be leery. Drew Brees is obviously struggling, and the defense can’t stop anything. Matt Cassel has looked decent (Granted, much of it’s been garbage time), and Dwayne Bowe has looked excellent, and it’s only a matter of time until Jamaal Charles gets going. However, it’s the Saints in the Superdome, down to 0-2. There’s just no way I’m betting against Drew Brees here.

New Orleans Saints: 34-24

 

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1):

Can’t say I’m liking the Bengals progression at all. The offense looks fine, but what was supposed to be one of the NFL’s surprise defense this year has completely collapsed, stopping literally nothing. That isn’t going to bode well going into Washington to face the NFL’s newest star in Robert Griffin III. Look for RGIII to carve the Bengals to pieces.

Washington Redskins: 31-27

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0):

Who guessed that this would be one of the NFC’s biggest matchups of the early season before it began? Yeah, that’d be nobody. What’s really shocking about this team is just how well that defense has to play to be 2-0 right now. The Cardinals’ offense has to be the worst in the NFL, maybe the worst in years, and yet, they outplayed the New England Patriots in New England. Do you know how many teams do that? Well, in home openers, in the last decade, zero. That folks, is a legitimate victory. That said, I like Philadelphia here for the very reason Arizona is so good. The Eagles have turned it over 4+ time in both games this season and have managed to pull out wins. Arizona will get its turnovers again, but that will be nothing new for the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles: 21-16

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0):

This is my tossup of the week. I picked the Falcons to win their division, but only by de facto. Instead, Atlanta is playing like a Super Bowl contender on both sides of the ball. Matt Ryan has looked incredible so far, and the defense has made gigantic strides from last season. On the other hand, though, despite the complete lack of a running game, the Chargers managed to eviscerate the Titans’ defense last week and completely shut down what should’ve been a squad full of playmakers on the other side of the ball. For now, though, I think the Falcons are the better time and should be able to pull off a mild upset in San Diego this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 20-17

 

Houston Texans (2-0) at Denver Broncos (1-1):

I don’t really have a critique of the Texans. Solid defense that keeps doing business, plus an offense that seems to move the ball pretty much however it feels, equals a squad that seems nearly unbeatable. That said, I can’t see Peyton Manning looking that bad two weeks in a row. The Broncos defense did a great job in recovering from a first-half letdown, shutting the Falcons down in the fourth quarter and giving Denver a chance to get back in the game. I think the Broncos should pull out a squeaker here in a potential preview of the AFC Championship.

Denver Broncos: 21-20

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-2):

So far, the Steelers look exactly as expected, even minus James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, if you’re a Steelers fan, but you have to wonder how long Pittsburgh can go with an anemic running game and an injured defense and stay a legitimate playoff contender. As for Oakland, I know I’ve picked the Raiders every week so far, but hear me out: Darren McFadden is awesome, and Carson Palmer has over 700 yards passing in two games. He gets his deep threat back in Denarius Moore, and that should spread things out enough to allow Palmer to put up a couple more touchdowns this week.  

Oakland Raiders: 27-20

 

New England Patriots (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1):

Everything says the Ravens should have this. A solid, all-around offense and a Baltimore defense that features the ageless Ray Lewis hosting the Patriots who have historically had trouble in Baltimore. However, Bill Belichick simply does not lose back-to-back games, but his Patriots also do not lose home openers to teams like the Cardinals. I think this game will be more important than most realize, as a win shows that the Patriots are still atop the AFC, while a loss may very well mean that we’re witnessing a changing of the guard. That said, I can’t see Tom Brady having two awful games in a row.

New England Patriots: 24-20

 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1):

You know the scary part about the Packers beating of the Bears last week? Aaron Rodgers did not have a good game. I know Matt Forte got injured, and Jay Cutler put up a truly terrible performance, but what looked an old, terrible defense against San Francisco was making plays left and right in Lambeau Field last Thursday. Of course, you’ve also got the Seahawks, who shocked everyone with how efficiently they dismantled the Cowboys. Granted, Romo falls into the mold of Cutler, and that will happen from time to time, Seattle nonetheless established itself as a team to worry about in the future. Unfortunately, for Seattle, Rodgers is just a little better than Romo, and should bounce back with a great performance this week.

Seattle Seahawks: 31-24

 

Last Week: 11-5-0

Overall: 21-11-0