And it’s back ... the most wonderful time of the year. The Super
Bowl-champion New York Giants kick off against the Dallas Cowboys on NBC
tomorrow night, or later today, depending on where you live. (I dunno, I had
readers from Russia last year. Go figure.) So with that comes my slightly
procrastinated – of course – preseason playoff picks (as well as my choice for
Wednesday’s game, because I don’t want to write a full pick ‘em blog two days
early just because the NFL has decided Wednesday sounds better than Thursday
now).
Because I’ll be giving my analysis of teams in my Week 1 preview later this week, I’ll stick to why these teams are why they are where they are, but I think you’ll find a few interesting surprises in what seems like a fairly stable set of playoff picks this year. And with that, we kick off!
NFC:
#1 Seed: Green Bay
Packers (13-3) – I really didn’t think I’d put them back on top again this
year, but barring catastrophe, the Packers really don’t have a serious threat
to their throne this year (they don’t play the Eagles and get the 49ers at
home).
#3 Seed: San
Francisco 49ers (11-5) – Hard to see the 49ers repeat their same success
from last year, given the lack of serious talent and/or depth at nearly every
skill position on offense, but Jim Harbaugh’s team should keep a grip on the
still-improving West for one more year.
#4 Seed: Atlanta
Falcons (10-6) – What has 106 thumbs and benefited most from Gregg Williams
scheming? These guys. Unless Carolina finds a shocking amount of talent among
its defensive reserves, the Falcons were all but handed this division over the
summer.
Wild-Card #1: Chicago
Bears (10-6) – These guys were a playoff team last year, then the injury
bug struck. As long as both sides can stay healthy, it’s hard to find a team
that plays as solid on both sides of the ball. We could be in for a lot of
surprises from these guys.
Wild-Card #2: Arizona
Cardinals (9-7) – Yes, John Skelton will make a playoff start. But so did
Tim Tebow, and his defense wasn’t as opportunistic and his skills were nonexistent.
Look for several surprising road wins from these guys this year.
Just Missed: Detroit
Lions, New York Giants – Both of these teams are loaded with talent, and
should the Bears’ live up to their injury reputation or the Cardinals make one
misstep, they’ll have ample opportunity to make a run. However, the Lions did
little to shore up a porous secondary (even releasing starter Aaron Berry),
while the Giants seem to have done little to shore up a run game that did
little before the postseason last year.
NFC Champion: First,
I just wanna say I love the Philadelphia Eagles this year. The way the team
gelled as 2011 ended was a little scary and exciting to watch, but I don’t like
how that team continue to dump pressure on itself, and I think it will
ultimately come back to bite them again. The Packers have the clear road to the
big game, but a shoddy defense means that should Aaron Rodgers’ passing attack
have one bad outing, Green Bay goes home yet again. So, those aside, my pick
is:
Chicago Bears –
This is banking on the Bears staying healthy for a full season, something none
of their stars have managed to do since 2006-07, but eventually the pieces have
to come together, and when they do, this is a team you will not want to see on
the other side of the ball come January.
AFC:
#1 Seed: Denver
Broncos (13-3) – I don’t feel entirely comfortable about that 13-win thing,
but I made a bet in April last year, and I’m sticking with it (even if 12 is
more realistic). For those saying Denver’s schedule is too hard, people forget
that it only looks hard, because this was a 9-7 team given a No. 1 seed’s
schedule. With Manning, those games against the Patriots and Texans are all of
a sudden much more winnable.
#2 Seed: New England Patriots (12-4) – The Patriots don’t have an off switch on offense, this much we all know. However, they’ll need to find the on switch for the defense this year if they want to hold off the quietly advancing Buffalo Bills.
#3 Seed: Houston
Texans (12-4) – Who would’ve thought that Wade Phillips would wind up being
2011’s most valuable acquisition? The Texans lost Mario Williams, but they didn’t
have him for most of last season and made things work. A healthy Matt Schaub
and Andre Johnson, as well as an experienced T.J. Yates will mean Arian Foster
no longer has to shoulder the load for this team (sorry fantasy owners).
#4 Seed: Baltimore
Ravens (10-6) – An aging defense that’s missing Terrell Suggs, as well as
an offense that features only Ray Rice, will sting this year, but in a division
that is simply tough, but not great, the Ravens have the most favorable
schedule to get the job done.
Wild-Card One:
Tennessee Titans (11-5) – No one will understand the benefits of a soft
schedule more than this year’s Titans. A solid defense that’s had a year to
age, as well as what should be a much more explosive offense with the additions
of Jake Locker and Kendall Wright, as well as the emergence of Jared Cook,
should spell a giftwrapped double-digit win count this year in Nashville.
Wild-Card Two: San
Diego Chargers (10-6) – I’m more than surprised to see this team here, but
favorable matchups and a bounceback year for Philip Rivers and Co., should have
this team sneaking into the playoffs behind Denver.
Just Missed:
Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills – In the same vein as the Lions and
Giants, a poor year by Philip Rivers or Chris Johnson should leave the door
wide open for either of these teams. However, an aging defense, along with a
very questionable run game and offensive line, mean that Pittsburgh will be
lucky to sneak in. Buffalo, meanwhile, was kept out of the playoff race last
year by a just unbelievable number of injuries and should be able to keep pace
with the two wildcards throughout the year. A home date against the Titans on
Oct. 21 should go a long way toward deciding this race, but the Titans should
scrape by.
AFC (and Super Bowl)
Champion: OK, you can clearly tell that I’m all about the Peyton Manning
bandwagon. But the dude played in the South during college and in a dome for
his entire pro career. The elements in Denver will serve just as much as a
detriment to him as to his opponents, and while the Broncos have other pieces
to the puzzle, missing him for an entire game is just too vital a part of
Denver’s gameplan to make it through the winter months. New England, on the
other hand, has plenty of playoff experience, and yet another loss to the
Giants will only serve as fodder for Bill Belichick’s hoodie-covered tear through
the AFC, but that porous defense will come back to bite them in the divisional
round as the …
Houston Texans
run roughshod through the Foxboro snow. The
Texans got about as bad a draw as possible when Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart went down
in successive weeks, leaving rookie T.J. Yates to lead the way into the
playoffs. A healthy Schaub will this year lead a serviceable passing attack
that will get Houston through its schedule, and Wade Phillips’ defense, which
will have adjusted to life after Mario, and the Arian Foster-Ben Tate tandem
will do the rest, showing the NFL exactly how a playoff game is supposed to be
played.
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