2012 Preseason Predictions

And it’s back ... the most wonderful time of the year. The Super Bowl-champion New York Giants kick off against the Dallas Cowboys on NBC tomorrow night, or later today, depending on where you live. (I dunno, I had readers from Russia last year. Go figure.) So with that comes my slightly procrastinated – of course – preseason playoff picks (as well as my choice for Wednesday’s game, because I don’t want to write a full pick ‘em blog two days early just because the NFL has decided Wednesday sounds better than Thursday now).

 
Because I’ll be giving my analysis of teams in my Week 1 preview later this week, I’ll stick to why these teams are why they are where they are, but I think you’ll find a few interesting surprises in what seems like a fairly stable set of playoff picks this year. And with that, we kick off!

NFC:

#1 Seed: Green Bay Packers (13-3) – I really didn’t think I’d put them back on top again this year, but barring catastrophe, the Packers really don’t have a serious threat to their throne this year (they don’t play the Eagles and get the 49ers at home).

 

#2 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) – A soft schedule plus a healthy, cohesive roster make for a relatively easy slide back into relevancy for Andy Reid’s pseudo-dynasty.

#3 Seed: San Francisco 49ers (11-5) – Hard to see the 49ers repeat their same success from last year, given the lack of serious talent and/or depth at nearly every skill position on offense, but Jim Harbaugh’s team should keep a grip on the still-improving West for one more year.

#4 Seed: Atlanta Falcons (10-6) – What has 106 thumbs and benefited most from Gregg Williams scheming? These guys. Unless Carolina finds a shocking amount of talent among its defensive reserves, the Falcons were all but handed this division over the summer.

Wild-Card #1: Chicago Bears (10-6) – These guys were a playoff team last year, then the injury bug struck. As long as both sides can stay healthy, it’s hard to find a team that plays as solid on both sides of the ball. We could be in for a lot of surprises from these guys. 

Wild-Card #2: Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – Yes, John Skelton will make a playoff start. But so did Tim Tebow, and his defense wasn’t as opportunistic and his skills were nonexistent. Look for several surprising road wins from these guys this year.

Just Missed: Detroit Lions, New York Giants – Both of these teams are loaded with talent, and should the Bears’ live up to their injury reputation or the Cardinals make one misstep, they’ll have ample opportunity to make a run. However, the Lions did little to shore up a porous secondary (even releasing starter Aaron Berry), while the Giants seem to have done little to shore up a run game that did little before the postseason last year.

NFC Champion: First, I just wanna say I love the Philadelphia Eagles this year. The way the team gelled as 2011 ended was a little scary and exciting to watch, but I don’t like how that team continue to dump pressure on itself, and I think it will ultimately come back to bite them again. The Packers have the clear road to the big game, but a shoddy defense means that should Aaron Rodgers’ passing attack have one bad outing, Green Bay goes home yet again. So, those aside, my pick is:

Chicago Bears – This is banking on the Bears staying healthy for a full season, something none of their stars have managed to do since 2006-07, but eventually the pieces have to come together, and when they do, this is a team you will not want to see on the other side of the ball come January.

 

AFC:

#1 Seed: Denver Broncos (13-3) – I don’t feel entirely comfortable about that 13-win thing, but I made a bet in April last year, and I’m sticking with it (even if 12 is more realistic). For those saying Denver’s schedule is too hard, people forget that it only looks hard, because this was a 9-7 team given a No. 1 seed’s schedule. With Manning, those games against the Patriots and Texans are all of a sudden much more winnable.

#2 Seed: New England Patriots (12-4) – The Patriots don’t have an off switch on offense, this much we all know. However, they’ll need to find the on switch for the defense this year if they want to hold off the quietly advancing Buffalo Bills.

#3 Seed: Houston Texans (12-4) – Who would’ve thought that Wade Phillips would wind up being 2011’s most valuable acquisition? The Texans lost Mario Williams, but they didn’t have him for most of last season and made things work. A healthy Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, as well as an experienced T.J. Yates will mean Arian Foster no longer has to shoulder the load for this team (sorry fantasy owners).

#4 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (10-6) – An aging defense that’s missing Terrell Suggs, as well as an offense that features only Ray Rice, will sting this year, but in a division that is simply tough, but not great, the Ravens have the most favorable schedule to get the job done.

Wild-Card One: Tennessee Titans (11-5) – No one will understand the benefits of a soft schedule more than this year’s Titans. A solid defense that’s had a year to age, as well as what should be a much more explosive offense with the additions of Jake Locker and Kendall Wright, as well as the emergence of Jared Cook, should spell a giftwrapped double-digit win count this year in Nashville. 

Wild-Card Two: San Diego Chargers (10-6) – I’m more than surprised to see this team here, but favorable matchups and a bounceback year for Philip Rivers and Co., should have this team sneaking into the playoffs behind Denver.

Just Missed: Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills – In the same vein as the Lions and Giants, a poor year by Philip Rivers or Chris Johnson should leave the door wide open for either of these teams. However, an aging defense, along with a very questionable run game and offensive line, mean that Pittsburgh will be lucky to sneak in. Buffalo, meanwhile, was kept out of the playoff race last year by a just unbelievable number of injuries and should be able to keep pace with the two wildcards throughout the year. A home date against the Titans on Oct. 21 should go a long way toward deciding this race, but the Titans should scrape by.

AFC (and Super Bowl) Champion: OK, you can clearly tell that I’m all about the Peyton Manning bandwagon. But the dude played in the South during college and in a dome for his entire pro career. The elements in Denver will serve just as much as a detriment to him as to his opponents, and while the Broncos have other pieces to the puzzle, missing him for an entire game is just too vital a part of Denver’s gameplan to make it through the winter months. New England, on the other hand, has plenty of playoff experience, and yet another loss to the Giants will only serve as fodder for Bill Belichick’s hoodie-covered tear through the AFC, but that porous defense will come back to bite them in the divisional round as the …

Houston Texans run roughshod through the Foxboro snow.  The Texans got about as bad a draw as possible when Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart went down in successive weeks, leaving rookie T.J. Yates to lead the way into the playoffs. A healthy Schaub will this year lead a serviceable passing attack that will get Houston through its schedule, and Wade Phillips’ defense, which will have adjusted to life after Mario, and the Arian Foster-Ben Tate tandem will do the rest, showing the NFL exactly how a playoff game is supposed to be played.

"Preseason" Predictions

OK, here’re my overdue NFL postseason predictions. I’ll try to keep it brief and only list the teams I think are going to the playoffs or have a chance of doing so. And you’ll have to take my word that these were my thoughts before the season began.

AFC:

Indianapolis Colts (12-4, AFC South) – I’m a Titans fan, and I love rooting for the Texans – I have a thing for underprivileged; don’t get me started on Boise State – but I accept reality. And the reality is that the Colts have won 12 games for seven straight seasons, and love him or hate him, Peyton Manning is the reason that keeps happening.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, AFC North) – I mentioned in an earlier blog that Troy Polamalu, not Ben Roethlisberger, was the reason for Pittsburgh’s wild postseason success for the last few years, and I stand by that. Troy and the Pitt defense were the reason they won the Super Bowl in 2008; Big Ben was just there to do pretty things, like throwing Santonio Holmes game-winning touchdown passes. Plus, this is not a team that’s going to miss the playoffs two straight seasons. Mike Tomlin’s will just won’t let it.

San Diego Chargers (11-5, AFC West) – Keep in mind, this is preseason, because I really do not like the Chargers’ chances anymore. They seem discombobulated, Philip Rivers is as horrible a leader as ever, and giving up Antonio Cromartie and Ladainian Tomlinson to the Jets now seem like tremendously bad moves. Still, though, you have to like the defense and the Rivers-led passing attack. It’s hard to get much better than that.

New York Jets/New England Patriots/Miami Dolphins (Two will go 10-6 for the AFC East and final wild card slot) – I thought about this all summer, and even though the Patriots looked like the weakest team to me, the Jets’ arrogance and youth, the Dolphins’ inexperience and questionable leadership, and the Patriots’ tried-and-true leadership just confuse me. As of right now, the Patriots still look like the weakest team here to me, but that can and probably will change, but I still like this division’s chances to get two playoff teams in.

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6, Wild Card) – Believe it or not, I said on draft day, they could go 10-6. They simply have too many young playmakers to not be a dynamic team. I will admit, though, a 3-0 record, based primarily on defense, is shocking even to me. I expected a wild card slot, not a two-game division lead three games into the season.

NFC:

Green Bay Packers (12-4, NFC North) – I just want to say, I knew this would happen, Brett. You can only screw over your team and teammates so long before it comes back to bite you. Plus, dude, you left a really good thing in Green Bay. The defense is aging, but it’s still very versatile, very good, and you have to love that Psycho Package. And there’s that slight thing where Aaron Rodgers might be the best QB in the NFL, with one of the best receiving corps. You know, no biggie.

New Orleans Saints (11-5, NFC South) – I kept looking for reasons over the summer to bet against the Saints, because people just don’t survive this division in consecutive years for some reason. But honestly, I can’t find one. Brees is too good, the running-back-by-committee group is too good, and the defense is way too opportunistic to just be a passing thing. I don’t think they’ll dominate the way they did last season, but hey, I said they’d go 8-8 last year, so don’t take my word as gold here.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, NFC East) – Honestly, no one saw the Michael Vick thing coming. You’re lying if you said you did. But what I saw of Kolb, McCoy and some of the Eagles’ other playmakers who were forced to step in last season impressed me … enough to the point where I’m comfortable saying this team can win a very messed up East division.

San Francisco 49ers (9-7, NFC West) – I didn’t think the Niners would be great, but I thought they would be improved, and they would be able to win a division that, with Kurt Warner’s retirement, has no significant talent anywhere. Even with their 0-3 start, their only competition are the Seattle Seahawks, and I like a Mike Singletary-led defense better than a Pete Carroll-led NFL team.

Atlanta Falcons (10-6, Wild Card) – I had the same problem with this division as I did with the AFC East, but cutting Jake Delhomme sealed the deal for me here. Even now, I think Carolina may have a playoff-caliber team, but Matt Ryan will always be better than Matt Moore. Plus, Roddy White and Michael Turner are both healthy for now, Tony Gonzalez is like the Energizer Bunny, and Jason Snelling has come out of nowhere as a great No. 2 back. I haven’t paid much attention to this team’s defense, but so far, it’s looked about as shut-down, in terms of points allowed, as they come.

Washington Redskins (9-7, NFC East) – Keep in mind, these are preseason, because I would so trade these guys for the Chicago Bears. But what I liked about them was that fact that the Skins really were a good team last year. They quietly had a top-5 defense – led by London Fletcher, the best player to never play in a Pro Bowl – had one of the better backs in the league in Clinton Portis, and have a couple of good receivers in Chris Cooley (tight end) and Santana Moss. Add Mike Shanahan, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and, eventually, Albert Haynesworth, to the mix, and you have an extremely talented team that needs only to mold itself into a cohesive unit.

Teams I like/that are now on my radar:

Seattle Seahawks – I don’t like them. I just feel forced to put them here, because, really, the NFC West sucks even worse than I realized. But Matt Hasselbeck does seem to be healed, the defense has been able to keep games from turning into track meets, for two out of three weeks at least, and Pete Carroll seems to actually know what he’s doing.

Chicago Bears – Can I just say “Wow?!” I won’t jump on the Jay Cutler bandwagon just yet, because he looked pretty good at the beginning of last year – didn’t jump on the bandwagon then either, for the record. But Forte looks healthy, Hester’s special teams look like they want to score again, and the defense, through three games at least, is as healthy as it’s been since 2006. Right now, these guys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Tennessee Titans – I feel like a bad fan for having one of my two favorites teams listed as a surprise. But come on, Kevin Mawae is forced into retirement, the defense is stripped bare, Chuck Cecil returned as defensive coordinator, and Nate Washington is still on the team. How is that a playoff contender? Turns out, though, this defense may not be in its best form, but it’s been able to make stops when it needs to. Plus, Washington is actually catching the ball now.

(OK, seriously guys, I’m not exaggerating my issues with No. 85. He cost the Titans at least two games last year with his crunch-time drops, against Houston in Week 2 and against the New York Jets a couple weeks later. If it’s any other receiver instead of him, or if Collins checks down past him, Collins is still starting, and the Titans are in the playoffs. A butterfly in China, folks.)

Houston Texans – I thought the Texans would be able to pull out another winning record. I did not think that they would dominate the Colts and come back from way down on the road already this season. This team as a whole is showing poise and talent, especially from quarterback Matt Schaub, and when Brian I-have-estrogen-in-me-because-I-work-out-too-hard Cushing comes back from suspension, this team is going to be very hard to stop.

Baltimore Ravens – I know, I’m putting way more AFC teams up here, but seriously, don’t these guys ever get old? Ray Lewis is still playing like he’s 30, and the defense is still acting like it plays under Rex Ryan. If Joe Flacco can get a rhythm, this team could easily win 12 games.

Don’t ask about the Bengals, by the way. They’re a fluke. They don’t have a chance this year.