"Preseason" Predictions

OK, here’re my overdue NFL postseason predictions. I’ll try to keep it brief and only list the teams I think are going to the playoffs or have a chance of doing so. And you’ll have to take my word that these were my thoughts before the season began.

AFC:

Indianapolis Colts (12-4, AFC South) – I’m a Titans fan, and I love rooting for the Texans – I have a thing for underprivileged; don’t get me started on Boise State – but I accept reality. And the reality is that the Colts have won 12 games for seven straight seasons, and love him or hate him, Peyton Manning is the reason that keeps happening.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, AFC North) – I mentioned in an earlier blog that Troy Polamalu, not Ben Roethlisberger, was the reason for Pittsburgh’s wild postseason success for the last few years, and I stand by that. Troy and the Pitt defense were the reason they won the Super Bowl in 2008; Big Ben was just there to do pretty things, like throwing Santonio Holmes game-winning touchdown passes. Plus, this is not a team that’s going to miss the playoffs two straight seasons. Mike Tomlin’s will just won’t let it.

San Diego Chargers (11-5, AFC West) – Keep in mind, this is preseason, because I really do not like the Chargers’ chances anymore. They seem discombobulated, Philip Rivers is as horrible a leader as ever, and giving up Antonio Cromartie and Ladainian Tomlinson to the Jets now seem like tremendously bad moves. Still, though, you have to like the defense and the Rivers-led passing attack. It’s hard to get much better than that.

New York Jets/New England Patriots/Miami Dolphins (Two will go 10-6 for the AFC East and final wild card slot) – I thought about this all summer, and even though the Patriots looked like the weakest team to me, the Jets’ arrogance and youth, the Dolphins’ inexperience and questionable leadership, and the Patriots’ tried-and-true leadership just confuse me. As of right now, the Patriots still look like the weakest team here to me, but that can and probably will change, but I still like this division’s chances to get two playoff teams in.

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6, Wild Card) – Believe it or not, I said on draft day, they could go 10-6. They simply have too many young playmakers to not be a dynamic team. I will admit, though, a 3-0 record, based primarily on defense, is shocking even to me. I expected a wild card slot, not a two-game division lead three games into the season.

NFC:

Green Bay Packers (12-4, NFC North) – I just want to say, I knew this would happen, Brett. You can only screw over your team and teammates so long before it comes back to bite you. Plus, dude, you left a really good thing in Green Bay. The defense is aging, but it’s still very versatile, very good, and you have to love that Psycho Package. And there’s that slight thing where Aaron Rodgers might be the best QB in the NFL, with one of the best receiving corps. You know, no biggie.

New Orleans Saints (11-5, NFC South) – I kept looking for reasons over the summer to bet against the Saints, because people just don’t survive this division in consecutive years for some reason. But honestly, I can’t find one. Brees is too good, the running-back-by-committee group is too good, and the defense is way too opportunistic to just be a passing thing. I don’t think they’ll dominate the way they did last season, but hey, I said they’d go 8-8 last year, so don’t take my word as gold here.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, NFC East) – Honestly, no one saw the Michael Vick thing coming. You’re lying if you said you did. But what I saw of Kolb, McCoy and some of the Eagles’ other playmakers who were forced to step in last season impressed me … enough to the point where I’m comfortable saying this team can win a very messed up East division.

San Francisco 49ers (9-7, NFC West) – I didn’t think the Niners would be great, but I thought they would be improved, and they would be able to win a division that, with Kurt Warner’s retirement, has no significant talent anywhere. Even with their 0-3 start, their only competition are the Seattle Seahawks, and I like a Mike Singletary-led defense better than a Pete Carroll-led NFL team.

Atlanta Falcons (10-6, Wild Card) – I had the same problem with this division as I did with the AFC East, but cutting Jake Delhomme sealed the deal for me here. Even now, I think Carolina may have a playoff-caliber team, but Matt Ryan will always be better than Matt Moore. Plus, Roddy White and Michael Turner are both healthy for now, Tony Gonzalez is like the Energizer Bunny, and Jason Snelling has come out of nowhere as a great No. 2 back. I haven’t paid much attention to this team’s defense, but so far, it’s looked about as shut-down, in terms of points allowed, as they come.

Washington Redskins (9-7, NFC East) – Keep in mind, these are preseason, because I would so trade these guys for the Chicago Bears. But what I liked about them was that fact that the Skins really were a good team last year. They quietly had a top-5 defense – led by London Fletcher, the best player to never play in a Pro Bowl – had one of the better backs in the league in Clinton Portis, and have a couple of good receivers in Chris Cooley (tight end) and Santana Moss. Add Mike Shanahan, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and, eventually, Albert Haynesworth, to the mix, and you have an extremely talented team that needs only to mold itself into a cohesive unit.

Teams I like/that are now on my radar:

Seattle Seahawks – I don’t like them. I just feel forced to put them here, because, really, the NFC West sucks even worse than I realized. But Matt Hasselbeck does seem to be healed, the defense has been able to keep games from turning into track meets, for two out of three weeks at least, and Pete Carroll seems to actually know what he’s doing.

Chicago Bears – Can I just say “Wow?!” I won’t jump on the Jay Cutler bandwagon just yet, because he looked pretty good at the beginning of last year – didn’t jump on the bandwagon then either, for the record. But Forte looks healthy, Hester’s special teams look like they want to score again, and the defense, through three games at least, is as healthy as it’s been since 2006. Right now, these guys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Tennessee Titans – I feel like a bad fan for having one of my two favorites teams listed as a surprise. But come on, Kevin Mawae is forced into retirement, the defense is stripped bare, Chuck Cecil returned as defensive coordinator, and Nate Washington is still on the team. How is that a playoff contender? Turns out, though, this defense may not be in its best form, but it’s been able to make stops when it needs to. Plus, Washington is actually catching the ball now.

(OK, seriously guys, I’m not exaggerating my issues with No. 85. He cost the Titans at least two games last year with his crunch-time drops, against Houston in Week 2 and against the New York Jets a couple weeks later. If it’s any other receiver instead of him, or if Collins checks down past him, Collins is still starting, and the Titans are in the playoffs. A butterfly in China, folks.)

Houston Texans – I thought the Texans would be able to pull out another winning record. I did not think that they would dominate the Colts and come back from way down on the road already this season. This team as a whole is showing poise and talent, especially from quarterback Matt Schaub, and when Brian I-have-estrogen-in-me-because-I-work-out-too-hard Cushing comes back from suspension, this team is going to be very hard to stop.

Baltimore Ravens – I know, I’m putting way more AFC teams up here, but seriously, don’t these guys ever get old? Ray Lewis is still playing like he’s 30, and the defense is still acting like it plays under Rex Ryan. If Joe Flacco can get a rhythm, this team could easily win 12 games.

Don’t ask about the Bengals, by the way. They’re a fluke. They don’t have a chance this year.