All right,
let’s try this again. Both times I’ve tried writing something this season, my
pre-season picks (which will be put up eventually, I swear) and my Week 1
picks, my computer decided to auto-reset and ignore my auto-save settings, and
it’s just really hard to re-write the exact same 3,000 words again when it all
just got deleted. But anyway, this week will actually have words and sentences
and all that fancy jazz, which is good, because I went 12-4, called several
upsets (and whiffed pretty badly on one) and I feel the need to talk about it,
so what I’ll do is just write a whole lot extra this week, which will totally
balance things out.
For people
freaking out over New England’s loss: Don’t. Miami’s defense has gotten progressively
better over the last several seasons, and they always play New England tough at home. It’s Week 2 and already
Chicago fans are starting to wonder if maybe they were too optimistic about
their team. Dallas and the Giants should both be looking forward to the 2015
draft already, and Houston and St. Louis should be questioning their decision
to pass on a quarterback in the 2014 draft (especially now that Jadeveon
Clowney is likely done for the foreseeable future).
As nasty as
the Rams’ loss looked, though, they did a pretty good job of stifling Adrian
Peterson – opting instead to let sophomore Cordarelle Patterson run them ragged
– and their front seven should be enough to keep them in games this season.
Unfortunately, when you’re forced to voluntarily utilize your third-string
quarterback mid-game, the season likely won’t go in your favor. Despite St.
Louis’ troubles, though, the NFC West looks like it will be the league’s best division
yet again. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals put on a second-half display Monday
night to match the Seahawks and Niners’ maulings of Green Bay and Dallas,
respectively. The AFC East should be fun to watch, Denver should easily repeat
as division champions, and if you want points, you should move to the NFC North
for the season. I’ll go into more detail about all that below, though. So
without further ado, picks (and explanaitions!):
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 12-4-0
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at
Baltimore Ravens (0-1):
I was as
impressed with the Steelers’ offensive display as I was with their second-half
collapse on defense. Pittsburgh has made efforts in the past couple offseasons
to shore up an aging defense, but as a near-toothless Cleveland offense showed,
it’s simply not been enough. On the other hand, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell
showed they’re more than enough to carry Pittsburgh. Bell has clearly made the
next step after a rookie campaign that saw Bell featured as the bell cow for
the Steelers offense, often averaging fewer than 4 yards-per-carry on
25-or-more handoffs. He put up 195 yards of total offense against a defense
that sat in the top third of the league for much of the season. Antonio Brown
was far off, adding five receptions for 115 yards, as well as a phenomenal judo
kick to the face of the Browns’ punter (accidental … we hope).
For the
Ravens part, they managed to keep Cincinnati’s offense relatively in check
until AJ Green did what AJ Green does and scored on a 77-yard touchdown
immediately following an 80-yard Steve Smith TD. The problem is, Baltimore’s
run game is anemic, yet again, and with the departure of Ray Rice and the
disappointment of Bernard Pierce, it’s unlikely they’ll have anything remotely
prepared again this week. The flip side to this is the fact that this might be
the fiercest rivalry game in the NFL, with a home loss meaning Baltimore falls
to 0-2. Both teams typically play their best defense against each other, and in
a low-scoring affair, the Ravens’ much better defense should be the deciding
factor.
Baltimore Ravens: 17-13
Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo
Bills (1-0):
I don’t know
what Cameron Wake is getting paid, but he should get a raise for Week 1. He spent
more time in the backfield with Tom Brady than Stevan Ridley did (that is not a
joke), and just about singlehandedly prevented Brady from orchestrating
anything in the second half. The Dolphins defense has been a steadily improving
unit under head coach Joe Philbin and have completely shut down Brady in each
of their last home outings vs. New England. While it’s unlikely they’ll fare as
well in Buffalo, where the Bills themselves are coming off an incredible Week 1
win, it should be enough to give young QB EJ Manuel fits. Ryan Tannehill seems
to have finally reached the point where we can call him a good starting QB, and if he can play mistake-free, he should be
able to turn this game into a shootout. The key for the Dolphins, though, will
be whether they can sustain their success on the ground from last week.
Knowshon Moreno (and to a smaller degree Lamar Miller) led the league in
rushing, shredding a Patriots front seven that was expected to be pretty
staunch this season. Moreno clearly wasn’t affected by his offseason surgery,
with his cuts looking as quick and sharp as last year, and he played a vital
role in keeping Tannehill upright for much of the game. If the Dolphins can
establish the run game and dictate the pace, Buffalo will have trouble keeping
up.
For Buffalo’s
part, the Bills played phenomenally well in Chicago. A healthy Fred Jackson and
CJ Spiller combination against the Bears’ porous run D meant an early lead and
a way to control the clock late as Chicago mounted multiple comeback attempts.
The real focus here, though, is Manuel’s growth. While looking far from an
elite quarterback, Manuel was able to make plays both with his arm and his
legs, and he made Chicago pay for focusing on rookie phenom Sammy Watkins by
connecting with Robert Woods repeatedly, to the tune of 99 yards. The problem
with Buffalo, yet again, is how effective its defense can be. Reliant upon
turnovers and big plays to mask gaping holes last season, the squad seems to be
doing the same thing again this year. Matt Forte put up nearly 200 yards of
offense, while an Alshon Jeffery injury is probably the only reason they didn’t
give up 200 additional yards. Buffalo should put up points, but the inability
of its defense to stop a methodical, efficient attack from the Dolphins will be
the deciding factor here.
Miami Dolphins: 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at
Washington Redskins (0-1):
For a half,
Jacksonville looked good, like it was ready to be relevant again. Then the
wheels fell off. Rookie Allen Hurns was shut down (after shredding the eagles
for 117 yards and two TDs, of course), the run game couldn’t get going, and
then there was that small problem of giving up 27 points in the second (another
seven came from on a pick-six from a clearly flustered Chad Henne). That said,
the signs are there. Gus Bradley finally seems to have the formation of the
defense he wants, and if Toby Gerhart lives up to expectations and Marqise Lee
and Cecil Shorts can finally survive their injuries, Jacksonville’s offense
should become effective enough to be considered a threat.
After the
entire preseason and the first week, I still don’t know what I’m seeing from
Washington. At one point, Robert Griffin III had one of the most egregious
lines I’ve ever seen for a QB (something like 17 completions for 96 yards in
the first half. How does that yards/completion even happen?). As many weapons
as he had at his disposal, the Skins only managed two field goals, against a
unit that lost Clowney early. The defense seemed to do its part, limiting Houston
to 17 points, but it still allowed 100 yards to Arian Foster and a 76-yard
touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, both glaring holes that will cost the Skins games
if the offense doesn’t figure things out soon – as in, this week. RGIII should bounce
back somewhat in front of his home crowd and a defense that may not have the
best front four in the game, and the Jaguars’ mediocre offense will struggle to
keep up.
Washington Redskins: 24-17
Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee
Titans (1-0):
If you didn’t
get a chance to watch the 49ers-Cowboys game, go find highlights of it. It won’t
take long, maybe five plays. The defense we all knew was bad was, in fact,
atrocious, but the problem here is how bad Tony Romo looked. Shaky from the
start, Romo tried forcing plays there simply weren’t there and wound up with
three picks, and a DeMarco Murray fumble returned for a touchdown early didn’t
help the situation, as it forced Dallas into a pass-only attack in the second
quarter. We’ll see this week whether that was an aberration or the norm, but
given how thoroughly the Titans’ defense throttled the league’s best player in
Jamaal Charles last week, it doesn’t look promising for America’s Team.
The Titans,
meanwhile, are coming off a road win of near-blowout proportions, hammered in
the Chiefs in both facets of the game. As good as Jake Locker and the rest of
the squad looked (and keep in mind, pre-injury 2013 Locker looked equally
effective), it was the Titans’ control of the line-of-scrimmage on the other
side of the ball that was most impressive. Kansas City fields one of the best
offensive lines in football, and the Titans were able to not only limit Charles’
playmaking ability, but to eliminate it completely. Additionally, they forced
arguably the most efficient quarterback in football, Alex Smith, into three
turnovers, all coming on non-blitz plays. If the Titans can essentially hold Kansas
City to three non-garbage-time points, they should be able to easily handle
this Cowboys offense.
Tennessee Titans: 31-17
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York
Giants (0-1):
A year into
his tenure with the Cardinals, Carson Palmer seems to have found his stride.
Facing one of the better defensive backfields in the league, while trailing for
much of the second half, Palmer was able to not only throw for 300 yards but to
throw no interceptions as well, a performance that’s become all too rare at
this point in his career. Most incredibly, he did it almost completely without
Larry Fitzgerald’s help. Michael Floyd looked nearly unstoppable, and Andre
Ellington, operating at less than 100 percent, was easily the best back on the
field that night. And despite numerous injuries, including the recent loss of
John Abraham, the Cardinals’ defense continued to look impressive, neatly
shutting down Philip Rivers for most of the night. Against a Giants’ offense
that more or less doesn’t have a line, the Cardinals should feast this weekend.
New York is
in trouble. So much trouble, in fact, that I’m not really sure what to pinpoint
as the issue. Eli Manning looks terrible, true, but we’d probably look just as
bad behind the offensive line he’s dealing with. Rashad Jennings is the real
deal, going up against a very talented Detroit front seven and pretty much
having his way, but he’s about the only appeal to that offense. Victor Cruz is
clearly not worth the money, Mario Manningham simply didn’t show up, and Larry
Donell is the Giants’ starting tight end. Good luck with that, New York. A
defense that was among the league’s best just two years ago looked terrible at
Detroit on Monday night, trying, and obviously failing, to single cover Calvin
Johnson and seemingly incapable of keeping all the Lions’ weapons in check. It
won’t get any easier this week, as Arizona fields a passing attack that rivals
Detroit’s and should be able to put up points with ease this week.
Arizona Cardinals: 27-20
New England Patriots (0-1) at
Minnesota Vikings (1-0):
In the first
half, New England looked like a Super Bowl favorite. In the second, it looked
lifeless, on both sides of the ball. Most of that was on the offensive line
that, like expected, simply wasn’t ready to face an elite pass rusher like
Cameron Wake. Some of it, though, was on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s playcalling.
Brady threw the ball 55 times, despite holding the lead for more than half the
game, and Shane Vereen was the team’s leading rusher, despite the presence of
Ridley and Brandon Bolden. A year ago, New England was the fourth-best rushing
team in the NFL, and it all but abandoned that attack when Miami came roaring
back. For the defense’s part, it simply allowed Miami to dictate the tempo of
the second half, incapable of stopping Moreno despite effectively shutting down
the long ball. Unfortunately, with as many weapons as Minnesota has right now,
it’ll be completely on the offense to bring home a win from Minnesota.
The Vikings
got hit hard by variance last year (a whole bunch of close wins in 2012 turned
into a whole bunch of close losses in 2013), but they still brought back one of
the league’s best offenses, despite having no true starting quarterback. The
defense, no doubt aided by Shaun Hill’s terrible play, and eventual benching,
looked ferocious in St. Louis, and with Patterson returning kicks again this
year, the special teams should be one of the league’s best. Unfortunately, for
the Vikings, Belichick is one of game’s greatest at rebounding from a loss, and
it’s unlikely that Brady will so exposed two weeks in a row. The Vikings should
put up plenty of points to keep up, but New England should be able to pull one
out late.
New England Patriots: 34-31
New Orleans Saints (0-1) at
Cleveland Browns (0-1):
I honestly
don’t have much criticism for the Saints this week. A secondary that was
supposed to be one of the league’s elites got lit up, but it was a by a fully
healthy Falcons offense that some seemed to have forgotten was one of the
league’s best before injuries set in. Drew Brees actually put together his best
road performance in two years in arguably the Saints’ most hostile playing
environment, and the re-emergence of Mark Ingram means he won’t have to try too
hard to carry the offense this season.
Strangely,
Cleveland’s offense came alive in the second half against Pittsburgh last week,
after Ben Tate and Jordan Cameron both went down with injuries. Andrew Hawkins
looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver, and the Terrance West-Isaiah Crowell
tandem shredded the Steelers’ defensive line for more than 100 yards and two
touchdowns. If Brian Hoyer can keep that kind of offensive production up again
this week, the Browns stand a chance, but given a week of film to watch, it’s
hard to see New Orleans’ secondary making the same mistakes Pittsburgh did.
New Orleans Saints: 27-20
Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati
Bengals (1-0):
Shockingly,
Matt Ryan appears to still be good at football. I’m not sure how, given
arguably the game’s best receiver tandem, a healthy 1,000-yard back and a new
offensive line that prefers its quarterbacks in a vertical position, but there
it is. Jokes aside, though, if Atlanta avoids the injury bug this year, you’re
going to see a lot of those 37-34 scores, because the defense doesn’t look much
improved at all. It will do enough against bad offenses to let Ryan seal the
game early, but against teams with elite quarterback/wide receiver combos, the
Falcons will struggle.
The Bengals, for their part, fall on the low end of that elite combo. Andy
Dalton looked as impressive against an improved Baltimore defense as he did for
much of last season, and Green is still trying to prove he’s the league’s best
receiver. Giovani Bernard, while relatively quiet, still managed to put up
almost 100 yards of offense, despite the Ravens clearly keying on him. The loss
of Tyler Eifert will limit Dalton’s ability to put up points, but the Bengals’
defense may be the best in the league this year. It absolutely throttled the
Ravens on the ground (though a lack of running backs may have some correlation
there) and, aside from a fluky 80-yard Steve Smith touchdown, pretty much did
the same through the air. They won’t shut down the Falcons this week, but they
should be able to do enough to give Dalton a chance to win.
Cincinnati Bengals: 24-23
Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers
(1-0):
Detroit’s offense
moved like a well-oiled machine Monday night, and though the Giants’ clearly
aren’t one of the league’s best squads, it’s still difficult to imagine any
defense shutting the Lions down, so long as Matt Stafford can play mistake
free. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for the past three seasons now. The
difference is Jim Caldwell, who, questionable coaching ability aside, has
proven his effectiveness at helping quarterbacks to mature. If he’s worked his
magic quickly, then Stafford should be able to perform against a ferocious
Panthers defense, even with the apparent lack of a running game. The Lions’ secondary,
as usual, is the biggest question mark, with nickelback Bill Bentley now out
for the season. The Lions are perilously thin back there, and the front seven
will have to step up its intensity in order to keep Cam Newton (or possibly
Derek Anderson) from having the time to find the flaws in the secondary.
For Carolina’s
part, no one expected Anderson to come in and throw for 230 yards against a
Lovie Smith defense, especially with the receiving squad Carolina’s fielding.
Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin, as expected, carried the bulk of the load, but
a solid rushing performance by the aging DeAngelo Williams helped keep the
pressure off those two. It’s unlikely the Panthers will be able to work that
kind of magic (240 yards from those three combined) two weeks in a row, but
they will have to take advantage of the Lions’ only major flaw if they’re going
to hold serve at home this weekend.
Detroit Lions: 20-17
St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay
Buccaneers (0-1):
The Rams are
in trouble. Heaps of it. Shaun Hill has already been yanked, and odds are, it
won’t be long until Austin Davis gets seated for Case Keenum. Zac Stacy is a
very solid workhorse back, but he’s also not going to put up Peterson-like
numbers with the box loaded, leaving St. Louis with very few options on
offense. The front four for the Rams’ defense is probably the best in the
league, and the defense overall might be a top-five unit, but if it has to be
on the field for more than 40 minutes per game, it simply cannot win. And
unfortunately, that’s what’s probably going to happen each week until the Rams
find some offensive rhythm.
Tampa’s loss
didn’t surprise me, but the way the lost did. Josh McCown has been a career
journeyman for a reason, and his fourth-quarter performance was nearly enough
to put the Bucs back on top, but the defense, which has had a full offseason to
develop Lovie’s schemes was simply incapable of stopping what should’ve been an
anemic offense for much of the game. Anderson and Benjamin pretty much had
their way with the Tampa Bay secondary early. The flip side of this is that
Tampa was able to adjust and largely silence Carolina in the second half, showing
flashes of what the NFL expected from the new-look Buccaneers. The Rams really
only have on offensive option, running, and the Bucs’ should have a field day
with that one, easily accounting for any frustrations McCown and Doug Martin
might cause on offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-10
Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego
Chargers (0-1):
Seattle is a
whole other beast at home, that much we know, but it still doesn’t change how
impressive they looked. Aaron Rodgers didn’t even try to test Richard Sherman’s side of the field (look at Jarrett
Boykin’s 0 targets for 0 yards line), and the rest of the field didn’t give up
much more. Granted, Eddie Lacy went down early with a concussion, but the run
defense looks much improved from last season’s, arguably Seattle’s biggest
weakness. Russell Wilson looked composed against a middle-of-the-road defense,
and he used his weapons – Percy Harvin, Marshawn Lynch and his legs – pretty
much at will. He’ll face a much stiffer test against the Chargers on the road,
but if he can keep his composure, he should still be able to deal serious
damage.
San Diego
struggled to put up points against the Cardinals, and they’ll likely struggle
to do so yet again this week, but this is a much-improved squad from even the
end of last season. Philip Rivers looked a little shaky, but Malcolm Floyd and
Antonio Gates still look like they don’t know they’re 30, and Ryan Mathews and
Donald Brown provide a solid 1-2 punch that should keep San Diego’s ground game
alive this year. Rivers and Co. should be able to put up some points against
the Legion of Boom, but the question will come down to whether Eric Weddle and
the Chargers’ secondary can prevent any big plays at home, which they should be
able to do.
San Diego Chargers: 17-13
Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland
Raiders (0-1):
It’s not
really fair to use the Redskins as a barometer, but that’s all I have to work
with, so I shall. Houston’s defense looks the unit of old, with JJ Watt simply destroying
defenses and the secondary refusing to give up any deep looks. The offense
looks shaky, and if not for a long Hopkins touchdown, likely would’ve struggled
to get close to two touchdowns. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson look hale and
healthy, though, and if history serves, that’s about the only offense these
Texans will need, especially against units like the Raiders.
At first
glance, I thought the Raiders performed somewhat adequately against New York,
but even a quick glance at the box score shows just how badly they were mauled.
New York racked up more than 500 yards of offense (which leads to the question:
How do you only score 19?!), and even though rookie quarterback Derek Carr was
effective in his first career start, he had no complementary run game, leaving
Oakland with gaping holes on both sides of the ball. Assuming Foster can stay
healthy for the entire game, Oakland simply won’t be able to take control of
the game’s tempo or its score.
Houston Texans: 24-20
New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay
Packers (0-1):
The biggest
fear the Jets had going into the season was their secondary. And after playing the
only starting rookie QB in the league this week, nothing happened to assuage
those fears. After facing the game’s best secondary in the game’s best home
venue a week ago, Rodgers and the Packer offense has to be licking their
collective chops. And while Geno Smith looks markedly improved from his rookie
year, especially with the addition of Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, it’s
unlikely he’ll be able to go toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best
quarterbacks.
For the
Packers’ part, nothing much went right Thursday night, but things typically don’t
go right for opponents in Seattle, and it’s impossible to judge a team by that
performance. Rodgers is still an elite quarterback, with an incredibly cast
surrounding him. The shallow Jets simply won’t be able to stop Jordy Nelson,
Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy and whoever lines up at tight end for the Packers this
weekend.
Green Bay Packers: 31-17
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver
Broncos (1-0):
This one
could get ugly fast, folks. One of the league’s best offenses a year ago was
shut down at home by a defense that Peyton Manning and the Broncos hung 50 on a
year ago. After admitting he got away from Charles too much, Andy Reid and the
Chiefs should make a concerted effort to get Charles the ball, which means they’ll
score points, but a playmaking defense that took a step back during the
offseason is unlikely to slow down the Broncos enough to keep up.
For the
first half Sunday night, Denver’s offense looked like it hadn’t missed a beat
from Week 17. Then it did what has continually gotten it in trouble the past
two years: It got complacent. Manning, and whoever his coach is at the time,
takes his foot off the gas every time he establishes a big lead, and against a
team with another elite QB like Andrew Luck, it could cause disaster. The
Broncos spend heavily to upgrade their defense in the offseason, but even this
improved unit can’t win if the offense won’t stay on the field. That’s simply a
personal issue, though. Talent-wise, there’s simply nothing the Chiefs can do
to match up with Denver at home.
Denver Broncos: 37-24
Chicago Bears (0-1) at San
Francisco 49ers (1-0):
After
watching the Bears for a week, I’ve seen nothing to change my initial
assessment that this team is on the way down. The Bears have a dynamic offense,
but it performed better under Josh McCown last year than under Jay Cutler, and
even a healthy Cutler wasn’t enough to help Chicago outscore Manuel and the
Bills. Alshon Jeffery’s injury set the Bears’ offense back a notch, but given
that Forte didn’t take off until after Jeffery had left the game, it’s hard to
use that as a legitimate excuse for the loss. Instead, let’s focus on the Bears’
three turnovers and a still-not-good defense. The Bears only gave up 360 total
yards, but 193 of those came on the ground (granted, against 2013’s best
rushing attack) and that’s a number that can’t repeat itself against a Niners
squad that features Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and, of course, Colin Kaepernick.
Cutler’s biggest knock, aside from injury problems, has been his gunslinger
attitude, but that attitude has to change this year if the Bears are going to
contend. That offense can compete with anyone, but when an interception
essentially means giving up seven points, it gets a lot harder to keep up.
The Niners
are another team that will be hard to judge after just one week. The defense avoided
becoming a letdown by simply taking the ball away every time the Cowboys’
offense looked away. Kaepernick really didn’t get a chance to show much, as the
game was already pretty much sealed by halftime, and almost every pass attempt
was complete in the first half. The Bears, though still weak defensively, will likely
be a truer test, simply because this should be a shootout. As for the Niners
defense, those turnovers will eventually stop coming, but that’s an issue to
worry about next week, not this one.
San Francisco 49ers: 34-27
Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at
Indianapolis Colts (0-1):
For a half,
it looked like Chip Kelly had been figured out. The league’s third-worst team had
shut out the Eagles’ high-flying spread attack and looked like it was going to
cruise to an easy 1-0 start. Then Kelly did what good coaches do and adjusted,
and the Eagles racked up 27 offensive points in the second half. No one was
under the delusion that Nick Foles would put up the same, efficient numbers he
displayed last season, but even so, it took him a little while to shake off the
rest. Jeremy Maclin is no Desean Jackson, but he seems to fill the void easily
enough. The Jaguars made shutting down Lesean McCoy a priority, but that simply
left Darren Sproles and Zac Ertz more scoring opportunities, which both took
advantage of. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ defense was arguably
the more impressive turnaround. A unit that was gashed by no-name Allen Hurns
for much of the first half not only shut down Hurns, it silenced every part of
the Jaguars’ offense, shutting it out for the half and flustering Henne to the
point of throwing a late pick-six to seal the game. They’ll struggle much more
against Luck and the Colts, who have far, far more weapons at their disposal
than Jacksonville did, but the turnaround was promising.
Speaking of
turnarounds, the Colts looked just as bipolar on Sunday night, if only against
a far superior opponent. Luck also took a half to get settled in, throwing a
couple of picks, but he managed to drag the Colts back into the game with
almost 350 total yards and three touchdowns in the last 31 minutes. Defense
will be at a premium this game, but Luck and the Colts should hold serve at
home in what might be the biggest shootout of the season thus far.
Indianapolis Colts: 37-31
