Week 4 NFL Predictions

For those of you who haven’t heard the news, Mike Heimerdinger lost his battle with cancer yesterday at the age of 58. Heimerdinger has been an integral force behind the Titans’ success in the last two decades and despite his diagnosis of a rare form of cancer, Heimerdinger elected to continue coaching his players last year, despite what I can only imagine was the most stressful time of his too-short life. As a devoted Titans fan for much of my life, I can say with assurance that Heimerdinger, you will be missed by everyone.

Now, a couple of things to start off with this week: First off, what the heck, Buffalo? You’re not supposed to buck the trend. You’re supposed to be Buffalo, and do what Buffalo does (Buffalo buffalo buffalo, anyone? No? OK, no more nerd jokes), and lose. A lot. That and Oakland. We all knew McFadden was talented, when he’s healthy, and I even called the Raiders’ win over the Jets, but that was a seriously good effort by Oakland. Coming back from 17-7 and stymying what you can argue is the most talented offense in the NFL is how you say, “Hey, we’re for real.” In other news: Detroit’s awesome (but what’d you expect? The Lions generally are.), Kansas City is just flat bad, and giving Minnesota a two-touchdown lead is like giving a crack addict a load of coke. It’s gone in 30 minutes flat. Also, Kerry Collins’ reputation should go through the roof after this week. Now, without further ado, here are my picks:

Week 3 Results: 11-5

Season Total: 11-5

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1):

Cleveland’s wins have been shaky and the opponents have been weak, but a winning record is a winning record. The Browns do play solid football, with a defense that doesn’t break, as well as a potential two-headed running attack that may give coordinators fits in the near future. Plus they have the winningest NCAA quarterback of all time. That probably helps a little (if he continues to pan out). However, Mike Munchak played under Heimerdinger and coached under him. Think Tennessee might have an emotional edge this week? Look for Chris Johnson to have his breakout week Sunday and Hasselbeck to continue his tear.

Tennessee Titans – 27-13

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1):

I read somewhere that Cris Carter said at the beginning of the season that Calvin Johnson wasn’t even a top-5 NFL wide receiver. Johnson is threatening one of Carter’s most impressive records (consecutive multi-touchdown games, with four) this week. Think Carter’s noticing Megatrown now? That said, Minnesota seemed to have figured out the Lions’ offense last week but couldn’t close the deal. The Cowboys’ defense, led by Demarcus Ware, is as formidable as it’s ever been and if he gets to Stafford as many times as Jared Allen did last week, Detroit may need to worry about finding a backup QB for the third straight season.

Dallas Cowboys – 24-21

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2):

ESPN analyst said Cam Newton came back down to mortality last week, throwing for less than 200 yards. Newton still has the rookie record for most passing yards in a three-game stretch, and he threw for those 200 yards (minus 68 on a Jonathan Stewart reception, called back on a technicality) in the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen in an NFL game. Yeah, awful performance. For Chicago, the same issues remain. Jay Cutler HAS to remain standing (only JaMarcus Russell can throw the ball from his butt, and we all saw how that worked out) and Martz HAS to figure out a way to open up the run game. Thankfully, Chicago should have a week’s respite before refocusing on the fact that they’re playing for third in the NFC North.

Chicago Bears – 27-17

Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2):

To be fair, I never saw Ryan Fitzpatrick as a horrible quarterback; he just never seemed an all-star quarterback. But regular quarterbacks don’t outduel one of the game’s greatest, even on one day. Cincinnati looks like it could be good, but the Bengals laid an egg against San Fran. Youth could be a problem for the Bengals, and I think the Bills will have just enough opportunities to pull out a squeaker here. (Side note: WHY are the Bengals not dealing Palmer? They’ve clearly found a decent replacement in Andy Dalton.)

Buffalo Bills – 31-30

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Kansas City (0-3):

Somebody has to win here, I guess. My opinion: Vikings will run up a 27-7 halftime score, with Adrian Peterson having the half of his life, with 150 yards and two touchdowns, but Minnesota will mysteriously forget about him for the third straight second half, and allow the hapless Chiefs to climb back in to tie it. Neither team will score in overtime.

OK, I was serious about the first chunk. Just not the overtime part. And I think Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston will find a way to keep it close in the second, but the Vikings should walk out of here with their first win.

Minnesota Vikings – 30-23

Washington Redskins (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-3):

I know the Rams are hurt on offense, but KC has it worse and still managed to give San Diego a go last week. Torrey Smith made the Rams look silly on defense, which, given Steve Spagnuolo’s predigree, really is inexcusable. Good Rex doesn’t even need to show up for the Skins to keep on rolling.

Washington Redskins – 27-10

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2):

Michael Vick needs to slow down. He’s not healthy and he keeps getting hurt and, no, that isn’t the refs fault. (He may have a legitimate grievance here, but if you play like a running back, you’re going to get calls like a running back. Deal with it.) Odds are, Vick will miss time in this one as well, let’s keep in mind, the Niners are not a good team. Solid, consistent play has kept them winning, but look for the Eagles to explode on both sides of the ball, with or without Vick.

Philadelphia Eagles – 34-13

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2):

Drew Brees would like to issue a statement to everyone worshipping Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Cam Newton right now: “Hey, I’m still around.” Or he would, if he hadn’t done so in the fourth quarter against the Texans. Lance Moore is back for the Saints, and the run game seems to have found its feet. Meanwhile, nobody has a clue what Jacksonville is doing. Jones-Drew is great, but when your leading receiver has 139 yards through three games, 40 of which came on an end-of-half Hail Mary, it’s not hard to figure out how to stop that offense.

New Orleans Saints – 34-18

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1):

I can’t quite put my finger on it, but something isn’t right with the Steelers’ offense this year. Maybe it’s the star-player effect? Two years ago, Chris Johnson had 2,500 yards from scrimmage, and was incredible through the first six games of the season … while his team struggled to 0-6. This year, Mike Wallace is close to his predicted pace for a 2,000-yard season, yet Pitt can’t score. Roethlisberger’s excessive turnovers do not help, and facing a much-improved Texans team that held New Orleans down for three quarters won’t do anything to improve the Steeler struggles. Consider this a semi-permanent changing-of-the-guard game.

Houston Texans – 24-21

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2):

Eli Manning likes his streaks doesn’t he? Five or six games at a time, he’s an elite-caliber QB. Rest of the season, though, he’s solidly average. He should have a couple more games in him, so relax, Giants fans. However, Ahmad Bradshaw really should be getting the ball more. He’s as quick as anyone in this league, and it’s a crime for him to get fewer than 15 touches a game. On the flipside, Arizona is an enigma. The defense seems to be leading this team (even if Sidney Rice had his way with it last week), while the Kevin Kolb-Larry Fitzgerald connection isn’t exactly what the Cardinals were hoping for. Arizona should turn this around, but it won’t be this week.

New York Giants – 27-17

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2):

All right, Atlanta, what was that? 20 yards on 11 carries for Michael Turner? Tampa Bay is a good team, and that loss had to come, but that was a woefully inept offensive performance from a very solid offense. The Falcons have been a little limp since getting blown out by Green Bay last year, but Matt Ryan and Co. are too talented to not turn this around soon. Meanwhile, Seattle finally found an offense, and it comes in the form of Sidney Rice. Rice broke 100 yards in his first game back (he’s just shy of being the team’s leading receiver, if that tells you anything), but as Minnesota proved a couple years back, Rice cannot take you to the playoffs. Or even win against decent teams.

Atlanta Falcons – 30-13

Denver Broncos (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0):

The Tim Tebow boos are only going to get louder, but this is not just Kyle Orton’s fault. Knowshon Moreno is well on his way to being another first-round bust, leading the run game straight into the ground. Thankfully, Denver’s defense seems to have stepped up. That’s not going to be enough to stop Aaron Rodgers, who, like Brady, is just operating on another level right now. If Orton manages to take advantage of the Pack’s clearly ailing secondary, the Broncos have a chance, but Rodgers at Lambeau? Might as well think Favre at Lambeau.

Green Bay Packers – 34-27

New England Patriots (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-1):

When the schedule came out at the beginning of the year, Bill Belichick had to have breathed a sigh of relief for the opening-season schedule, which featured three teams with losing records in four games. Not so much now. Both the Bills and the Raiders lead their division, and it doesn’t seem to be a fluke. The Raiders’s D, as I said earlier, is extremely good, even without All-Star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, and could well give Brady more fits. What’s certain is, Wes Welker will NOT go for 200 yards again this week. However, Brady won’t throw four interceptions again, and Belichick simply doesn’t lose twice in a row. McFadden will lead the way for the Raiders, but he won’t be enough.

New England Patriots – 37-27

Miami Dolphins (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1):

Miami is just a bad team right now. Daniel Thomas seems to be the lone bright spot for this team, and if Brandon Marshall doesn’t cure his case of the dropsies and the defense doesn’t settle down, the Phins are on their way to getting worse. Meanwhile, the Chargers continue the magic of having one of the league’s best offenses and defenses, yet squeaking out victories. They’ll try to lose this one too, but even they shouldn’t be able to give this one away.

San Diego Chargers – 21-19

New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1):

Not a good stretch for the Jets. Baltimore may quietly be the league’s most well-rounded team, especially with the explosive emersion of Torrey Smith (I’ll stop talking about him when he doesn’t have 130 yards and three touchdowns through the first quarter, OK?). New York’s no slouch either. The offense seems to be clicking, and the defense is as formidable as ever. But Baltimore has home field in this one, and as physical as this game should be, you can expect that to play a huge role.

Baltimore Ravens – 17-13

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1):

Indy’s season just goes from bad to worse, but at least it gets to happen on primetime. Kerry Collins will be sitting this week out after receiving a concussion during last week’s loss to the Steelers, and Curtis Painter will be starting. And folks, Painter is bad. So bad, the Colts signed a 38-year-old retiree 19 days before the season opener, just to keep him from starting. And Indy won’t have the luxury of an offense that insists on giving up turnovers this week. Josh Freeman is just too consistent, and LeGarette Blount is a threat to explode any time … I mean running, not punching people, by the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 31-13

Side note: This is why I believe we should all respect Collins a little bit more. The starting job is his, guaranteed, yet he sits out when he has a concussion. More quarterbacks need to follow this mode. A recipient of a couple of concussions myself, I can tell you, they’re a serious deal, and they get worse each time. Stop with the bravado, Ben Roethlisberger and Michael Vick, and start focusing on your futures and on setting a good example for those who idolize you (regrettable though their choices may be).