For about three hours last Sunday, it looked like Week 7 was well on its way to being the most boring week of the season. Then a few things started to happen. The Jets woke up; Matt Ryan became Mr. Incredible; Josh Freeman was Josh Freeman; DeMarco Murray said “Hey” to the NFL; and of course, then there was Tebow. Nobody personified that week better. With Miami beating Denver 15-0 with about 7 minutes remaining, I tweeted, “Can we put the Tebow issue to rest now?” Of course he doesn’t make things that easy. For 54 minutes, 30 seconds, Tebow looked exactly like what everybody expected from a third-string quarterback. For the next 10 minutes or so, he looked exactly like John Elway, making plays with his legs and fitting passes into places a football had no place fitting. Of course, as bipolar as this week was, it did have some upside: I beat every ESPN.com expert on picks this week. Sure, even a broken clock is right twice a day, but it’s still a good feeling. Anyway, onto Week 8.
Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 48-23
Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1):
I get grief from a friend (Niners fan) every week, because I keep saying that I expect San Fran to win its division, but I always pick against the 49ers. Well, this one gets the top slot, because I’m finally putting my money where my mouth is. San Francisco’s had an extra week to settle down from the emotion (and John Harbaugh sure had a lot of it) of knocking off an unbeaten. Alex Smith looks like a QB reborn, and the Patrick Willis-led defense is looking monstrous right now. Cleveland’s experience a renaissance – it can’t be a resurgence since this Cleveland team was never good, so what else do I call it? – under Colt McCoy and Pat Shurmur; in fact, these two teams are using an incredibly similar formula for their current success. But, San Francisco is doing it better.
San Francisco 49ers: 24-16
Indianapolis Colts (0-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-3):
One of two things can happen after a blowout loss: It will either break a team’s spirit, ruining it for the season, or it will serve as motivation to turn the team around. We’re guaranteed a little of both this week, as these two were outscored by a combined 103-14 last week. That’s just nasty. What’s nastier is that Indianapolis can’t be expecting much better for the rest of the season. The Titans were embarrassed at home and have a chance to redeem themselves against the worst team in the AFC. Think Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Johnson and Nate Washington all lay an egg again this week? Indy’s only hope is to match the Titans with Curtis Painter and Co., which just won’t happen.
Tennessee Titans: 34-10
Detroit Lions (5-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4):
I’m gonna go ahead and admit it: I have no idea how to call this Broncos team. The defense has played one good game (and Tebow almost blew it), and the offense is clearly nothing without good quarterback play. Question is, which Tebow shows up and for how long? The Lions, meanwhile, are facing a skid that looks eerily similar to recent years’ performances. If the Lions have any chance of getting back on track, Matt Stafford has to regain his composure and start playing a full 60 minutes and stop forcing the defense to make plays to keep games winnable. Detroit should turn things around here, but of course, that’s assuming Tebow doesn’t stop Tebowing long enough to score points.
Detroit Lions: 23-17
New Orleans Saints (5-2) at St. Louis Rams (0-6):
New Orleans could probably hear the collective gulp that came from St. Louis when the Saints left the Superdome last week. Now, Sam Bradford is officially ruled out for this week, and there’s a good chance everyone in St. Louis, Rams included, will still be hung over from the World Series celebration. Drew Brees should have fun tossing a half-dozen more TD passes.
New Orleans Saints: 37-7
Miami Dolphins (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2):
How do the Dolphins provide an encore for last week’s epic performance? My guess: They lay an egg against the Giants, who’ve had a bye to game plan for … this? Miami is struggling in every aspect right now, and New York should have no trouble controlling this one from start to finish.
New York Giants: 28-10
Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (2-5):
The records for this game are misleading. Vikings fans have to feel great about their future right now, and Carolina just watched the Panthers put together a full game that didn’t involve Cam Newton having to throw for 450 yards and 5 TDs to pull out a win. Minnesota may have the edge on defense, with its characteristically stout run D near the top of the league, but with the diversity Newton provides on offense, while Carolina’s defense seems to make every passer look as good as Newton right now. It’ll be a track meet, but edge goes to Carolina.
Carolina Panthers: 35-31
Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2):
I think this is the first time I’ve ever accidentally skipped a game. Oh well. Baltimore is busy defining the team that plays to its competition’s level this season. The Ravens are as good as any, but their losses (Tennessee, Jacksonville) are pretty ugly. Fortunately, an Arizona win falls into that category. Unfortunately, Arizona has the bad timing to travel to Baltimore a week after one of those horrible losses.
Baltimore Ravens: 34-10
Washington Redskins (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-2):
I don’t like the John Beck move from the Redskins. True, Rex Grossman is about as polarized as a starting quarterback can be, he still provides the best chance to win that the Skins have. Coach Mike Shanahan has turned this defense around, seemingly overnight, but it can’t be called upon to overcome every mistake Beck makes, made obvious by last Sunday’s loss in Carolina. Buffalo continues to look like a whole new team, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is just what a coach dreams about … if he has other playmakers. Which he does, in Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson. Give a Harvard grad a bye week to prepare for a defense – even one as good as Washington’s – and betting against Fitzpatrick just doesn’t seem like a good one.
Buffalo Bills: 24-13
New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2):
I love these games. Immovable object meets irresistible force. Strangely, while the Patriots’ offense finally looks beatable and Wes Welker seems almost mortal, the defense seems like it’s found its groove. It did so at a good time. Pittsburgh’s offense seems to have everything covered except QB coverage, and New England is gonna have to hammer Ben Roethlisberger if it hopes to slow him down. And while I’m not buying this whole Steelers-are-showing-their-age-on-defense thing, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick coming off a bye week simply don’t lose, and it’s going to be more than Harrison, Polamalu (if he’s healthy) can handle.
New England Patriots: 37-28
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4):
As weird as it is to think it, Seattle simply isn’t the same team without Tarvaris Jackson under center. He’s taking snaps this week, but he’s not a guaranteed lock for the Seahawks. A healthy Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice mean a potent offense, but with as many dings between the three, this Bengals defense should have a field day. Cinci is on the road, but Qwest Field isn’t exactly known for its homefield advantage. Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Co. should be able to put up just enough points to keep this unexpected season a little more thrilling.
Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17
Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4):
How good did DeMarco Murray look in his NFL debut? Well, he’s outrushed Chris Johnson for the season. There’s that. If indeed it turns out that Murray’s performance wasn’t a fluke, Dallas will more than likely welcome the prospect of the NFC’s best offense. I’m not sold, however, on Rob Ryan’s defense. Tony Romo has done what he can to help these second half collapses, but it’s the defense giving up multi-score leads. A game is 60 minutes, not 30, and Ryan needs to prove his defense can play that long. And sadly, as bad as the Eagles have looked recently, they’re still not out of the NFC East race. If Vick manages to play through a full game this offense can run with anyone. If LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson keep making plays where they need to, things will turn around for Philly. Coming off a bye, odds are, the Eagles won’t look any healthier than they do this week.
Philadelphia Eagles: 27-21
San Diego Chargers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3):
As recently as eight days ago, this division seemed like a two-team race. Then KC walloped Oakland at home and San Diego laid a second-half egg against the Jets. I said earlier in the year that, St. Louis aside, no team had more issues to deal with than the Chiefs, and it looks like they’re just now coming into form. Jackie Battle isn’t Jamaal Charles, but he’s getting the job done, and Matt Cassel is improving every game. The defense isn’t the same with Eric Berry out for the season, but it’s clearly learned to survive without him. That said, it survived against an Oakland offense rotating between two clueless QBs. Philip Rivers is far from clueless, and he has much better weapons. Add to that that Ryan Matthews seems to keep taking every team by surprise this season, and you’ve got a formula that’s going to make KC’s run at defending its division title that much harder.
San Diego Chargers: 24-17
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