NFL - Predictions Week 10

Last Week: 8-5

Overall: 87-46-0

 

Seattle Seahawks (8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6):

The Seahawks have been shaky the past couple of weeks, especially in their run game. While it looks like St. Louis simply hosts an absolute beast in Zach Stacy, there’s absolutely no excuse for Seattle’s inability to shut down Tampa Bay’s Mike James at home last week. Meanwhile, Atlanta is coming off an embarrassing beatdown that it really had no explanation for, even with the fact that the Falcons traveled to Carolina to face one of the league’s elites. Stephen Jackson is slowly returning to form, Roddy White should be back, and look for Matt Ryan to bounce back in a big way this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 23-20

 

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3):

Who would’ve thought that the Lions and Bears would be playing for the division lead at this point in the season. Despite a defense that’s looked progressively worse and more incapable of stopping the pass as the season progresses, Detroit has been carried by Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford, like usual. Meanwhile, Chicago is finally getting Jay Cutler back, but given Josh McCown’s play the last couple games, this isn’t really the injury recovery Chicago needs. Fielding half of a starting defense against arguably the most dynamic offense in the NFL is a recipe for disaster, and Detroit should pull away when Chicago’s defense wears down.

Detroit Lions: 34-30

 

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3):

Let’s call a spade a spade here: Seneca Wallace sucks. But for the first time since Aaron Rodgers began his starting career, the Packers’ success doesn’t run through him. Eddie Lacy is a phenomenal young back (with the NFL’s easiest rushing schedule left), while Green Bay sports a pretty good run D of its own and a secondary that, while not elite, is certainly better than anything Nick Foles has faced in his recent starts. However, as strange as it sounds, Philly is a different beast on the road, and it’s going to be difficult for the Packers to be able to handle everything the Eagles throw at them this week.  That said, Green Bay’s running attack should be able to keep a cap on the number of possessions the Eagles earn and keep this game close.

Green Bay Packers: 24-20

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4):

We all know there’s little upside to the Jaguars, who can’t even win the bye week with Justin Blackmon’s suspension, but this is a divisional game between two franchises that used to lead this division annually. Jacksonville should do a good job of keeping this one closer, but the Titans are going to try to fix their running woes, and against Jacksonville, even broken is good enough.

Tennessee Titans: 31-23

 

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2):

As good as Stacy has looked for the Rams, everyone else has looked as bad. Kellen Clemens has plenty of decent targets to spread the ball to, but Austin Pettis, Tavon Austin and Jared Cook have all failed to step up on a consistent basis, which means the Rams will be forced to push the run. Indy has shown that, without exceptional quarterback play, it’s nearly impossible to run the ball on this defense, especially at home, and there’s simply going to be no answer for Andrew Luck and TY Hilton on the other side of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-17

 

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6):

I’m torn on the Giants’ secondary. On the one hand, it’s been absolutely shutdown the last two games, but on the other hand, the quarterbacks in those last two games were a concussed Josh Freeman and an overwhelmed Matt Barkley. My guess is that it’s somewhere along the worse side of the scale, but all the same, Oakland isn’t exactly known for its passing attack. The loss of Darren McFadden (again) also weakens the Raiders ability to push the ball on New York. However, Oakland’s defense is not as bad as Philly made it look last week. While it may have given the Giants a game plan for the week, they’re not going to hang 40 on Oakland.

New York Giants: 27-23

 

Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6):

Pittsburgh’s D is literally the worst in the team’s history. Granted, Pitt has been a historically proud defensive franchise, that’s still an impressive moniker. If not for Jacksonville, we’d likely be talking about just how bad Pitt’s run D is, and Buffalo is known for its slightly talented rushing attack. The problem is, Buffalo’s defense, while much improved, isn’t particularly strong on the ground or through the air, and a week after Ben Roethlisberger threw for 400 yards and with Le’Veon Bell getting consistently heavy workload, it’s going to be hard for Buffalo to control either aspect of Pitt’s offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-17

 

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5):

I don’t want to use the term “freefall” to describe the direction the Ravens are headed just yet, but I would definitely use “falling.” The rushing attack has simply been nonexistent, and there seems to have been no serious effort to fix it over the bye week. Cleveland’s defense has been much improved this season, but it’s not as good as the Bengals defense. On top of that, the Bengals have a shutdown secondary that will likely make Joe Flacco miserable this week. Baltimore’s defense has steadily improved throughout the season, making it harder and harder for opponents to take advantage of Baltimore’s offensive woes. However, the Bengals’ passing attack has been simply ridiculous over the last month, and Giovani Bernard is clearly the dynamic playmaker the Bengals need for 15-20 touches a game. Cincinnati should be able to sneak one out in Baltimore this week.

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2):

Over the last six or so weeks, the Panthers have fielded the absolutely best defense in the NFL, and have won five of those games in absolute blowout fashion. This will be Carolina’s first true road test since Week 5 at Arizona, where it was the throttled team, but Jonathan Stewart’s return has given another dimension to an already stellar rushing attack, and Cam Newton has quietly become an elite passer, making guys like Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn look like legitimate starters. The Niners are coming off a bye week, however, and Colin Kaepernick is following the same rising path that Newton is. Mario Manningham will return this week, and given two weeks to game plan for the Panthers should allow the Niners to escape this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4):

Alright, I think everyone is officially on the Case Keenum train this week after an electrifying dual performance between him and Andre Johnson. That said, Houston’s defense is still atrocious, and Arizona is a different beast at home, having been nearly unbeatable. Andre Ellington gets a juicy matchup on the ground, and Larry Fitzgerald has had an extra week to heal up.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-16

 

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4):

The Chargers have a huge boon in their home-field advantage this week, given how much closer Broncos’ games have been on the road. However, what had been a fairly stout defense up to last week in Washington got gashed by Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon – with a career-high 177 receiving yards – en route to an overtime loss, despite having 1^st down on the 1 with less than 30 seconds to go. It’s going to be even harder for the Chargers to move in short yardage situations against the Von Miller-led front seven of Denver, and the Chargers have to make every possession count, which they’re not going to be able to do.

Denver Broncos: 41-30

 

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2):

For all their talk about how they love Dez Bryant, there’s some kind of underlying issue with the Cowboy passing attack. Despite playing a porous Minnesota defense, neither Terrence Williams nor Bryant were able to break free for any sort of long play. Additionally, with the apparent injury concerns over DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys forced Romo to throw it 51 times last week, which is simply way too much of an imbalance, especially when walking into the Superdome to face a Saints defense that has been on lockdown in the secondary and is headed by Rob Ryan, who knows this Cowboys’ offense well. Additionally, Drew Brees has been a monster at home, and with Jimmy Graham simply incapable of being shut down, it’s hard to imagine Dallas being able to keep up.

New Orleans Saints: 31-23

 

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8):

Talk about a catastrophe going on in Miami right now. Not only will the Dolphins be missing two offensive linemen on an already questionable line, there’s now clearly some issues inside the locker room as well. This comes at a terrible time, as they’re heading in to face a Buccaneers offense that has to be overflowing with confidence with the rise of Mike James and Mike Glennon. Miami’s finally found a rushing game to complement Ryan Tannehill, and the secondary, while susceptible to big plays, has been able to take advantage of any weaknesses by opposing quarterbacks, but it’s unlikely Miami will be bringing its best game with all the issues surrounding the locker room this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 21-17