NFL Predictions - Week 11

This season has been rough. I don’t remember ever seeing, and the numbers seem to agree, more key players going down for playoff teams than in this season. Crazy things, like two-year backup Nick Foles playing like Peyton Manning or practice-squad QB Scott Tolzien taking the helm of the storied Green Bay franchise, keep happening, and, ya know, it makes these picks really difficult. Then you’ve got lesser-noticed ones like Vernon Davis getting concussed and the entire Niners offense simply shutting down for the rest of the game. Now to top it off, a crazy year gets a crazier week with four games expected to be impacted significantly by weather across the Midwest region. But oh well, it just makes for more excitement down the stretch.

 

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 95-52-0

 

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7):

So it’s an odd week, which means the Jets should win, but it’s a road game, which means the Jets should lose. As strange as this sounds, we’re 11 weeks into the season, and New York has yet to win a game on an even-numbered week lose a game in an odd-numbered. A big problem here has been that Geno Smith simply has not looked good on the road, save a near-perfect performance against Atlanta’s atrocious secondary. That works well for him, considering the Bills’ secondary is just as bad. The severe weather mitigates that advantage somewhat, but Buffalo is missing both of its starting wide receivers, EJ Manuel still doesn’t seem sharp, and New York’s phenomenal run D should be enough to control the Bills at the line of scrimmage, leading to the Jets’ second road win of the season.

New York Jets: 20-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4):

I keep seeing all these “start Ray Rice” posts in fantasy football world, and I have to wonder why? Yes, the Bears’ run defense isn’t good and yes, the weather is going to make a deep passing game incredibly hard, but Ray Rice and the Ravens’ offense hasn’t been slow because it’s been facing incredible defenses (in fact, just the opposite). It’s bad because it’s bad. Baltimore has zero ability to run the ball and the weather today means that, more than likely, it’ll have zero ability to utilize deep threat Torrey Smith. This, plus the fact that Josh McCown is actually healthy, compared to Cutler last week, means the Bears shouldn’t have much trouble rebounding this week.

Chicago Bears: 27-20

 

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4):

Despite a play that clearly showed divine support in the Bengals’ quest to dominate this division, Cincinnati was still able to throw away an overtime game against Baltimore last week, which, strangely enough, keeps every team in this division alive for this week.  Fortunately for Cincinnati, it’s going up against a Browns team that, while competitive, simply can’t seem to win on the road. Eleven weeks into the season, Cleveland has no true standouts – though Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron and Pat Haden are certainly known throughout the league – but a top-10 defense will give Cincinnati issues. Giovani Bernard has been spectacular for the Bengals so far, but look for him to be hemmed in somewhat. Haden should do a decent job of containing AJ Green, but Andy Dalton has looked to good and has developed a rapport with too many weapons to be shut down by the Browns at home.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

 

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5):

This one’s interesting. RGIII gets to face off against yet another spectacularly weak pass defense, Alfred Morris is likely good enough to shred the Eagles run D, and they get this game in Philly, which, surprisingly, is where the Eagles are worst. But Nick Foles’ meteoric rise should temper this somewhat. A healthy Foles and this offense is incredibly hard to keep up with, and RGIII will have to be nearly flawless in order to keep the ball out of the Eagles’ hands long enough for his defense to catch its breath. Philadelphia has the edge in just about every aspect of this game, including defense, but with the crazy nature of the NFC East, look for the Redskins to have found enough of a wrinkle in Philly’s game plan to walk away with a win.

Washington Redskins: 34-28

 

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6):

As a Detroit fan, I can tell you that Lions are riding about as high as they’ve been since the mid-90s. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell looked phenomenal Sunday against the Bears, and even against his toughest defender, Charles Tillman, Calvin Johnson was able to put up yet another phenomenal stat line. That said, there are some serious holes on the defense that Pitt will have a chance to exploit. Pitt absolutely mauled Buffalo last week, managing to shut down Buffalo’s ground game with what was previously seen as one of the league’s weakest run defenses. Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is looking more and more like the elite-level quarterback we saw for so many years, and he’ll have a chance to exploit the Lions’ secondary. Possibly severe weather could take away that advantage, but it works the same way for Detroit, and if both teams have to shift to a power-rushing attack, Detroit just won’t be able to match Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8):

I keep expecting Matt Ryan and Mike Smith to find a way out of this slump, but it seems like this Falcons’ team is too far gone. Roddy White and Steven Jackson are finally healthy again, but there’s no defense on this team, Tony Gonzalez is getting too old and Harry Douglas is now shaken up. Tampa, meanwhile, is starting to play like a real team under Mike Glennon, and he’ll have a great chance to exploit an atrocious Falcons defense and keep the pressure off the Bucs’ weakened running game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-24

 

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8):

I attribute last week’s win against the Titans more to the Titans inability to win the games it should under Mike Munchak (that’s the third season in a row the Titans have lost to the worst team in the league in a late-season matchup) than a sign that the Jaguars are actually capable of winning games. Despite playing from a huge deficit, Ryan Fitzpatrick was nearly unstoppable against a Jaguars’ pass defense that actually ranks in the league’s upper half. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, Arizona’s defense is much better all-around and its offense, though prone to interceptions under Carson Palmer, is much less likely to turn the ball over so much. Look for Andre Ellington to have a field day in leading the Cardinals to a surprising 6-4 record.

Arizona Cardinals: 28-13

 

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7):

Oakland’s job was difficult enough with Terrelle Pryor in this week. The knock on Oakland at season’s start was that it simply didn’t have enough weapons to go toe-to-toe with some of the league’s best, and nothing has changed there. Pryor’s athletic ability was enough to keep defenses in check and allow the likes of Denarius Moore and Rod Streater to consistently find holes in the secondary, but an elite secondary in Houston, coupled with a surging offense led by Case Keenum and Andre Johnson, make this is a nearly impossible game for the Raiders to take.

Houston Texans: 30-16

 

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5):

As much trouble as the Chargers look like they’re in, they have nothing on the Dolphins. Miami is an all-around mess, and with Mike Pouncey out today, the Phins will be missing 60 percent of its starting O-line. Given an inability to run the ball already and Mike Wallace’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act, it’s difficult to see Miami putting up many points. Miami does have a solid secondary, but the Chargers have been determined to run the ball as of late, and this week should be no different, only easier. The Chargers should be able to run away with this one.

San Diego Chargers: 23-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2):

The Niners needed that game against Carolina badly. It’s already unlikely they’ll catch the Seahawks this season, but a loss to the Saints this week puts them not just out of NFC West contention but at risk of losing a Wild Card. Losing Vernon Davis is a disaster for the Niners, even with Mario Manningham back and Michael Crabtree due to return soon, and Davis is unlikely to be 100 percent healthy going up against a ferocious Saints secondary that mauled Dallas last week. The Niners defense is unlikely to give up 600 yards and 40+ points this week, but when “holding” the Saints to 28 would be considered a job well done, and your offense doesn’t have the ability to put up anywhere close to that many, it’s a recipe for disaster.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6):

I’ll go ahead and say it: I don’t think the Pack looked half bad with Scott Tolzien under center. Granted the Eagles’ secondary is awful and they had no tape of Tolzien going into the game, the Tolzien still seems like he’s effective enough to open the field and allow Eddie Lacy to control the pace of the game. Unfortunately, the Packers are facing the Giants at the worst possible time. The return of Andre Brown – and Tom Coughlin’s subsequent, slightly overbearing, gushing – gives the Giants a legitimate two-dimensional threat it hasn’t had all season. New York shut down when it lost David Wilson, but thanks to favorable scheduling, it’s managed to stay alive in the East, and this week should get them one step closer to catching Philly and Dallas.

New York Giants: 23-16

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1):

Christian Ponder’s injured shoulder could be a problem here. The Seahawks were already likely to win, but an injured Ponder means eight to nine guys in the box against Adrian Peterson, which would effectively shut down the Vikings offense, and the Vikings simply are not capable of shutting down opponents. With the added return of Percy Harvin, who no doubt has plenty of motivation to show off against his former team this week, things could get ugly for Minnesota this week.

Seattle Seahawks: 28-14

 

Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1):

All this nonsense about how these two teams play such easy schedules. Well first off, they play the AFC South and NFC East this season, and they had no choice in the matter. Second, the two teams play a very similar schedule (only two opponents different outside the division), which means that all those sub-.500 teams basically have two-to-four losses already on their record from these two teams alone. Remove those games and you have four opponents at .500 or better.

 

Now with that out of the way, this is an interesting game. A hobbled Peyton Manning (high-ankle sprain on his right, non-planting foot) can play, but he likely won’t be nearly as effective. Since sustaining an injury against Indianapolis, he’s had trouble throwing the ball downfield, and against a ball-hawking defense like KC’s, that means a lot of his passes may wind up 50-50 balls. Additionally, Denver isn’t exactly great at preventing the pass rush, while the Chiefs are fantastic at getting to the quarterback. Home-field advantage plus too many weapons to take off the table mean that the Broncos should be able to take this one, but it by no means guarantees the eight-point spread Vegas has laid down.

Denver Broncos: 27-23

 

New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3):

Looks like ESPN finally got its Monday Night Football pick right. The surging Panthers, who have won six of seven with five in blowout fashion, will host the Patriots who are simply doing what the Patriots always do. Tom Brady looked fantastic against Pitt before the bye, and his offense is fully healthy for the first time all season, which he’ll need going up against arguably the best defense in the NFL at this point in the season. After knocking Vernon Davis out of the game last week, the Panthers’ defense manhandled San Francisco, holding it to four total yards in the fourth quarter. Four. Given the slate of injuries on this New England defense, plus the power-running ability of the Panthers, the Patriots may put up a few touchdowns, but it’s unlikely to be enough to catch the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers: 23-21