Week 9 NFL Predictions

I’ve got awesome news for you guys, and I know every last one of you will care. Care to hazard a guess? … That’s right. Detroit is still in contention for the NFC North with a win over the Jets today. We all knew it was coming …

OK, so I’m kidding (sort of). But I’ve got plenty of reasons to be excited. As one friend put it, the Pack laid the groundwork on how to shut down the Jets, and if the Lions follow it, they should coast. The Lions offense literally can’t be stopped right now. It’s the fact that they’re giving up almost 25 points a game that’s killing them.

Also, the Titans are on bye this week, so I can spend the next seven days praying that I dreamed the waiver claim. Too bad that part won’t happen.

With that, here’re this week’s picks:

*Week 8: 9-4

*Overall: 39-30

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (0-7): The depressing downward spiral of the Bears only gets worse here, I’m afraid. Buffalo has been too close too many times to not be able to pull one out, while Jay Cutler seems to be hanging on by a very thin thread.

As of right now, Mike Martz seems like he’s actually trying to get Cutler killed, and he’s doing a pretty good job. And somehow, Ryan Fitzpatrick (who knew? Better yet, who knows?) has been the spark the Bills have needed to finally put up some points this season.

Bills over Bears: 24-17

New York Jets (5-2) at Detroit Lions (2-5): I’ll be honest: I may have a little fan bias on this one. But I’m looking at a Lions team that is putting up 25 points per game, has only been truly beaten once (Week 3, Minnesota), seems like they’re defense is actually becoming something special, and Detroit’s had an extra week to prepare for a Jets team that looked completely flummoxed by the Pack last week.

I’m not saying I’ve forgotten about Mark Sanchez and his best receiving corps and backfield that money can buy; I’m just saying I think Detroit can score more. And that’s what wins games, my friends.

Lions over Jets: 31-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (5-2): Raheem Morris truly believes he has the best team in the conference. That’s a lovely sentiment, but the reality is, it has the best schedule in the conference. The Buccaneers are a potential playoff team, and Josh Freeman looks like he’s settled in, but they are not beating Mike Smith, Matt Ryan and co. at home, when first place in the division is on the line.

Falcons over Buccaneers: 24-10

New England Patriots (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-5): You know what’d be really funny? If Brady threw the game-losing interception because he forgot to sweep his hair out of his eyes before the snap. But really, I think the Patriots will struggle. One New England receiver has been able to go off each week, which has saved the offense from exposure, but what happens when a team shuts Welker and Branch down and the unknown backups can’t pick up the slack? We know they can’t fall back on a running game.

Meanwhile, that’s about Cleveland has. If Peyton Hillis were playing for, say, a playoff team, he would probably have 700 yards and 10 TDs right now. He is that good. The best part about Cleveland, though, is that it fights. Detroit and Buffalo aside, this team has probably suffered more close losses than anyone in the league. But occasionally, it’ll be a close win. Plus, I think it’s fun watching the experts struggle with all this “parody” this year.

Browns over Patriots: 34-17 (I didn’t say it would be close, did I?)

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5): I almost said, “Here’s a game that doesn’t matter.” Then I remember the Cardinals are in the NFC West, and it very much does matter. I’m hesitant to say the Cardinals’ motivation will be enough to pull out a win for this one, just because they really have nothing on offense. Occasionally, you’ll get the unexpected performance out of them – like the 30-17 trouncing they put on New Orleans – but this is not a good offensive team.

The biggest weakness for the Vikings, I think, aside from Favre, is their defense right now. It’s not bad, but it certainly isn’t playing up to the level it should be. That being said, Sidney Rice is coming back, and it’s the Cardinals at home. They should survive.

Vikings over Cardinals: 27-20

New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-6): The Saints have a nasty tendency to just get trounced by the awful teams – this is actually a good thing come playoff time, if you think about it – but I think the Panthers are awful enough that this doesn’t matter, especially since the Saints won’t be taking them lightly after their first meeting. Remember how I said for five weeks that I still thought Carolina had playoff potential? Yeah … that’s really all I’ve got to say on that.

Saints over Panthers: 31-17

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2): I do not understand the Dolphins. How do you 4-0 on the road and 0-3 at home? Maybe the visiting team is so stunned by the women in South Beach that they have extra incentive? Who knows. Either way, ‘Phins are on the road, so it’s moot. The big thing here is that Dan Carpenter is healthy, and Miami’s going to need that leg against a team that historically relies on its kicker.

I think this game comes down to Ray Rice, though. He’s been less than stellar this year, having only one truly great game and scoring both of his touchdowns then. The Ravens have a great receiving corps and Flacco looks solid this year, but if Rice doesn’t get it going, even with McGahee playing well, it’s just hard to see the Ravens putting up enough points to match Miami. Good news is, Rice is due for another good game.

Ravens over Dolphins: 24-19 (Yes, I do think the ‘Phins will kick four field goals.)

San Diego Chargers (3-5) at Houston Texans (4-3): By all accounts, the Chargers should be dead, out of the playoff running. But they do this every year, plus have the No. 1 offense and defense in the NFL right now (explain that one). The problem is, the majority of that No. 1 offense comes in the form of Antonio Gates, who isn’t playing this week. Rivers has made it work with receivers that I bet you couldn’t name even if you watched the Chargers play a week ago, but at Houston, against an offense that can score whichever way it feels like, will be a challenge.

Houston meanwhile, just seems to lack a winner’s mindset. Maybe it’s because this franchise isn’t used to be a contender, but it continues to underperform with the talent it has. This offense should be miles ahead of everyone in the league, and yet Matt Schaub is barely averaging 200 yards per game. The bye week and the home field should help tremendously, but the Texans need to do some serious soul searching.

Texans over Chargers: 28-25

New York Giants (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3): Anybody else out there think all those Giants bandwagoners are going to look hilarious when they fall/jump/dive off that wagon in the coming weeks? Ahmad Bradhsaw is playing out of his mind, yes, and Eli Manning is having a decent year. But let’s keep in mind, I said Eli. You know, choke artist who redefines family of choke artists? (Let’s keep this straight: I love Peyton Manning, but the man can not win big games when it matters.)

Also, I hate enigmas. And the Seahawks are an enigma. They’re not just good at home, bad on the road. They are ridiculously good at home and ridiculously bad on the road. It’s like they forget how to play the second they leave Qwest Field. Lucky for them, they’re at Qwest. And they’re due for another rushing touchdown. Yeah, they have two. For the season. Total. Ew.

Seahawks over Giants: 28-17

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4): I don’t think this game has mattered since it was a big deal that Bo Jackson played football for Oakland and baseball for Kansas City. But New England West – I’m sorry, I mean Kansas City – has built an extremely solid team, thanks to the help of a great coaching staff, a great backfield, and a defense full of young future Pro Bowlers. I said I expected 10-6 from the Chiefs, but even I’m shocked at how well this team is closing out games.

The Raiders, meanwhile, I don’t understand. So they bench Campbell, put up 59 points, bring Campbell back, put up 33 points. Seriously, what the heck? I knew their defense could be shut-down, as long as it focused on the run, but I always assumed that means 17-10 games, not 59-14 ones. Here’s the problem, though: Oakland’s run D is not good, and the last two weeks, it’s faced teams that would struggle to run the ball even with only four guys playing defense.

Kansas City is not that flawed. Look for 350 yards on the ground and for the Raiders to come crashing back down to reality.

Chiefs over Raiders: 34-20

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-3): I know I said Peyton isn’t clutch, but his talent still irks me. It isn’t fair how somebody minus the nation’s best tight end, using several undrafted or high-round-pick wide receivers can simply keep chugging along at a 4,000-yard-per-season pace. I don’t think Philly will slow him down, but I do think they’re going to leave him bruised and battered.

As for the Eagles, he’s baaaaack. I can’t believe I’m admitting that Vick seems to be legitimate at this point, but what he’s done for this team is unreal. It’s motivated and playing well beyond what its talent level should be accomplished. And here, the team’s at home against Indy. And I think that’s the edge the Eagles are going to need for this week.

Eagles over Colts: 21-17

Dallas Cowboys (1-6) at Green Bay Packers (5-3): It would be funny if Dallas came into Green Bay and shocked the world with a win. And it would keep NBC from trying to put a hit out on Jerry Jones after scheduling this game. But it’s not going to happen. I’ve never a seen a team as talented as this, yet so dysfunctional.

Packers over Cowboys: 34-14

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-5): ESPN is silently considering the same thing as NBC. They were thinking division title implications at this point. As much as Ben Roethlisberger irritates me, it’s hard to argue with how good he makes this team, which was already one of the best in the league without a proven quarterback.

As for Cincinnati, the only trouble they give teams is figuring out how to spell that city (seriously, I misspell it every time). Plus, Roethlisberger gets a chance to seek a little vengeance against the team that swept the Steelers last year, on its own turf. You don’t think the Steelers are drooling a little bit over this one? I do think Palmer and the Bengals will be able to put up some great numbers against Pittsburgh today, but it’s not going to be enough.

Steelers over Bengals: 28-20

Week 2 college predictions, along with a Boise State bummer

You know what makes me furious? Virginia Tech. I like Frank Beamer; he’s a good coach, a good guy and fields a solid team year in and year out. But come on. James Madison? The worst part is, this gives football purists – those who refuse to accept the mid-majors’ potential legitimacy – enough ammo to keep firing away for at least another year, even though we’ve all seen letdowns like this before, and it’s hardly indicative of Virginia Tech’s real talent.

Really, though, I’m not furious. Just a little irritated at how this plays out. This is why a playoff system would be nice. Mid-majors wouldn’t have to rely on loophole scheduling for them to possibly contend for a national championship, while everybody else would have the ability to actually prove there’s still a talent gap between BCS and mid-major. Who am I kidding, though, that goes against profit flow. Never gonna happen. With that despairing thought, here are my predictions for the week:

Week 2 predictions:

Tennessee vs. #10 Florida – Sorry if you’re not a Tennessee fan reading this, but that’s the bias you get stuck with here. The Vols will always be my first and most extensive read on these predictions. Given that, I think it’s about the only victory Tennessee will get this week.

I was not pleased on so many different levels in the Oregon game last week. I knew we weren’t even close to as good as the Ducks, and I knew the score would probably reflect that. I didn’t know, however, that we would play like the better team for a half and then quit. This is not my perspective as a fan; this is the reaction of media and coaches alike.

If you need examples, just look at LaMichael James’ 72-yard TD run and the Ducks’ pick-six – No, I haven’t looked up who picked it off, because the thought of the play still nauseates me. Only Simms made a full-hearted effort to bring the interceptor down on the pick, and only three people made contact with James, even though he reversed direction in the freaking backfield, and none of those three even got close to a form tackle.

How does this tie in to the Florida game, one that’s an actual rivalry and bound to be more intense? Expect about the same. The Vols have made it clear they can play with anyone for a half. But give the other team a little momentum, and add in the fatigue factor – we all knew UT had no depth; it was just one of those things you kept praying we could avoid in the second half – and Florida looks to have the same reaction as in its first two games: Start off slow and look like a team in serious trouble, before blowing up in the second half for a few TDs.

Final score: 28-17 Florida

#1 Alabama vs. Duke – I won’t call the upset here, but I have to say, I’ve enjoyed keeping track of Duke this far into the season. Granted, their opponents were Wake Forest and Presbyterian, the Blue Devils have been explosive on offense. That being said, there’s no way they overcome an Alabama defense that looks just as good as, if not better than, last season’s D.

Final score: 31-6 Alabama

#2 Ohio State vs. Ohio – OK, fine, I’ll get off my “Ohio State sucks, so why do you keep putting them up there?” bandwagon for the time being. What they did to the ‘Canes, whom I believe are a very good team with a chance to win the ACC, was impressive. This is a top-5 team, and that’s the first time in probably three years I’ve conceded that, so don’t expect to hear it again. Don’t expect the Bobcats, who will struggle to get out of the middle level of the MAC, to put up much of a fight.

Final score: 38-7 Ohio State

#3 Boise State at Wyoming – The fact that this is a road game would matter if it weren’t in-conference for the Broncos. As much as I love me some Boise, I can’t argue the fact that there’s no challenge in the WAC. If you play college fantasy, and you have WAC players available in your league, line up the Broncos, because this is going to be fun.

Final score: 45-13 Boise State

#4 TCU vs. Baylor – It’s funny how TCU can start the season ranked in the top 10, put up a solid performance against a notable Pac-10 team (Oregon State), yet receive absolutely no attention for the fact that the Horned Frogs are ranked fourth right now. The defense won’t be as good as it has been in recent years, but it’s a still a solid, Gary Patterson-led defense that’s going to crush most offenses it faces this year, and it’s Big 12 tune-up this year is against a Baylor squad that’s still at least a couple years away from making any serious moves in the Big 12 – if the league is still around then.

Final score: 38-17 TCU

#5 Oregon vs. Portland State – So turns out, Oregon’s offense is legit. Ugh.

Final score: 63-3 Oregon

#6 Texas vs. Texas Tech – I think Tommy Tuberville has a shot at making Tech a perennial contender in this conference, but I don’t see drastic changes coming in one year, even if he inherited a team easily talented enough to reach a bowl game. I watched Garrett Gilbert just about pull off the upset in the national championship game last season, even though it was the first time he’d gotten anything more than garbage-time snaps. I like Texas for this whole season; I like it a lot.

Final score: 42-28 Texas

#7 Oklahoma vs. Air Force – This is where it gets fun, ladies and gents. Oklahoma proved last week that it’s either a very good team or that Florida is a very overrated team. I think it’s a combination of both, but you can’t argue 47 points against a solid FBS program. However, you can’t argue Air Force putting up 35 on BYU either. This is still a run-centric team, going up against the progenitors of the Wishbone offense, but I like Air Force’s chances. I don’t see an upset happening in Norman, but you can be sure this is going to be a great game.

Final score: 41-31 Oklahoma

#8 Nebraska at Washington – The Cornhuskers are an enigma for me. Western Kentucky shredded their defense two weeks ago for almost 300 yards – though having possibly the nation’s best rusher probably helps – then stifled a high-powered Idaho passing attack, which had a -9 point differential at half time. And then there’s the question of the team’s offense: Is Taylor Martinez really the answer? For the time being, I think yes, he is, and I think both sides of the ball will be enough to stop a team whose only real playmaker is Jake Locker.

Final score: 28-14 Nebraska

#9 Iowa at #24 Arizona – Every year Arizona starts off with hype, and every year it either just manages to meet that hype or slightly fails to reach it. Given that most of the Wildcats playmakers are returning, I really don’t see any difference in this, especially against a stifling Iowa defense. Don’t look for the Hawkeyes to run up 40 on a pretty good Wildcat defense, but Ricki Stanzi is a solid game winner, and Adam Robinson has looked impressive in his first two starts. If nothing else, the runners’ duel between Robinson and Arizona’s Nic Grigsby should be amazing to watch.

Final score: 23-17 Iowa

#11 Wisconsin vs. Arizona State – Remember all the hype surrounding Dennis Erickson’s Sun Devils a few years back? Yeah, that’s dead now. The Sun Devils are the only team, as far as I’m aware, to actually play two FCS-division opponents – only one of those games count towards the team’s bowl eligibility, so I’m lost on this one – and that’s about as much hype as they get this year. As far as my not-so-extensive knowledge of ASU goes, the team has no players or units of note. Look for this to be just another tune-up game for John Clay and the Badgers.

Final score: 35-14 Wisconsin

#12 Arkansas vs. Georgia – Can someone please explain what exactly Arkansas has done to merit a No. 12 ranking? Yes, the Razorbacks have Ryan Mallett, yes they have the best passing attack in the SEC, but this is a defensive-minded conference and the team did little last year and has played no teams of note so far this year. I believe the Hogs will be a good team; they might even be able to upset Alabama later in the year, but Georgia’s coming off a conference loss, it’s playing at home, and the defense looks fairly solid so far. Expect tears and dashed hopes in Fayetteville come Sunday night.

Final score: 28-24 Georgia

#13 South Carolina vs. Furman – If Marcus Lattimore still hasn’t grabbed your attention, this is just another chance for you to watch the best contact runner in college since Adrian Peterson. Steve Spurrier said he thought Lattimore broke around 40 tackles in the Georgia game, which is a lot. And I don’t doubt it either. I watched the Gamecocks’ victory-sealing drive against Georgia, and one two consecutive players, Lattimore should have been stopped for a loss but both times broke tackles to gain 10+ yards. Total, he broke about eight tackles on those two plays. Enjoy watching him run over Furman.

Final score: 56-14 South Carolina

#14 Utah vs. New Mexico – Remember Utah from two weeks ago? Beat Pitt in overtime and all that? Remember New Mexico from two weeks ago? Gave up 70 to Oregon and all that? Yeah, that’s about all you need here.

Final score: 49-10 Utah

#15 LSU vs. Mississippi State – If for nothing else, I love the SEC for games like this. The Bulldogs are a solid team who manage to play SEC foes very close, even if they usually do come out on the bottom. Unfortunately for them, LSU has a solid defense, even if it collapsed against UNC in the second half two weeks ago, and a solid run game. Mississippi State will stay in contention for most of the contest, but Dan Mullen’s first marquee victory won’t come at Tiger Stadium.

Final Score: 24-20 LSU

#16 Auburn vs. Clemson – I have my reservations about Auburn. The Tigers looked like one of the nation’s top offenses last year until defenses caught onto Gene Chizik’s game plan. I have even more reservations about Clemson, though, and for the first time in years, I think they’re ranked where they should be: out of the top 25. This should be a good test for Auburn’s defense before it hits the meat of the SEC, though.

Final score: 28-17 Auburn

#17 Miami – Bye. Smart move, especially given what happened to Virginia Tech.

#18 USC at Minnesota – I have three words for Minnesota fans: South Dakota. Sorry.

Final score: 42-14 USC

#19 Stanford vs. Wake Forest – I’d like to know why a solid Stanford team that absolutely pounded UCLA last week is ranked lower than a USC team that has looked icky at best in its two wins, but that’s not my place to say. UCLA may be a cellar-dweller in the Pac-10, but it’s still a solid program, and the goose egg on its side of the board last Saturday is scary. However, Wake lost a track meet with Duke last week, so it’ll be interesting to see which is the stronger force. I say Stanford’s defense.

Final score: 24-14 Stanford

#20 Michigan vs. UMass – Did you see Denard Robinson? I have no adjectives for this man! Yes, I’m aware it’s early in the season, and I’m sure teams will catch on, but 500 yards is a really big number to ignore, especially for the poor Minutemen.

Final score: 63-14 Michigan

#21 West Virginia vs. Maryland – Well this is interesting. You have the one team (WVU) that’s already struggled against a mid-major this season, while the other team (Maryland) perennially struggles with mid-majors. This is another game where I think home-field advantage is the difference-maker. Maryland is a much better team than its record last year indicates, while I believe West Virginia is a worse team than its record indicates. The amount of skill-position talent on that team should lead to BCS contention annually, yet the team looked sloppy against Marshall.

Final score: 27-20 West Virginia

#22 Penn State vs. Kent State – Like Miami, smart move with the lax scheduling right after a big game. The Nittany Lions need this one after being pounded unceremoniously by the Crimson Tide last week. Completely unrelated, but if Penn is short for Pennsylvania, how come Kent isn’t short for Kentucky (Kent State is in Ohio)?

Final score: 41-13 Penn State

#23 Houston at UCLA – I would love to say this is a sure bet for Houston, but I can’t bring myself to accept a Case Keenum-led letdown for a third year running. That being said, if the Bruins couldn’t stop Andrew Luck, they sure can’t stop Keenum.

Final score: 45-35 Houston

#25 Oregon State vs. Louisville – I’ve never been a fan of dropping a team completely out of the rankings for losing a thriller against a top-10 team, so I’m glad the Beavers are back in this week, because they deserve to be here. The Rogers brothers -– if you haven’t seen them by now, I judge you. Seriously, youtube them –- are some of the most dynamic players in football, and they will score on anyone, especially Louisville. I have faith Charlie Strong can get the Cardinal turned around, but this test will simply be too much for them.

Final score: 30-17 Oregon State