Week 12 NFL Predictions

This has to stop. Tim Tebow is now making incredible waves without even doing anything. The Broncos waived Kyle Orton this week, the Chiefs picked him up, and now the AFC West seems permanently muddled. Two of the hottest teams in the NFL (Texans and Bears) have lost their quarterbacks as well, both for at least the remainder of the season. On the other hand, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers continue their record-shattering paces and each one seems primed to control their own destinies for the remainder of the season. In other words, it’s all about the quarterback right now. (Isn’t it always, though?) It’s not just the quarterback, though. DeMarco Murray has the Cowboys surging, with a strong chance to take full control of the NFC East this week, while thanks to an explosion by Kevin Smith, the Lions were able to mount their third 17+-point comeback against Carolina, setting the stage for possibly the biggest showdown in the NFC this year. With that in mind, here are my picks for the week.

Last Week: 13-1

Overall: 82-44

Green Bay Packers (10-0) at Detroit Lions (7-3):

Both of these teams started hot, but despite shaky defensive play in recent weeks, the Packers have managed to stay undefeated, doing so in dominating fashion. Aaron Rodgers seems simply unstoppable right now, and the defense is capitalizing off the fact that opposing offenses have to do their best to keep up. On the other side, Detroit is dealing with success it literally hasn’t experienced in generations, and it shows. What was a hot 5-0 start is now a rocky 2-3 stretch, where the Lions have gone from blowing out the Broncos, to getting blown out, to destroying the Panthers in a half. Detroit’s offense is clearly one of the highest caliber in the league, but it seems to function only on emotion. Fortunately, Green Bay and Thanksgiving Day should give the Lions all they need for motivation.

Detroit Lions: 37-34

Miami Dolphins (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-4):

Miami’s another one of those teams that lost its QB to a season-ending injury, but strangely enough, it seems to have actually helped the Dolphins. It may be too little too late, but a resurgent Reggie Bush is leading an offense that can seemingly do no wrong right now. Meanwhile, the rookie Murray is doing the exact same thing for Dallas, taking the game out of Tony Romo’s choking hands being the biggest impact he’s made. Unlike Miami, though, Dallas has a great defense and gets the home-field advantage. Miami’s hot streak ends in the House That Jerry Built.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-14

San Francisco 49ers (9-1) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3):

It’s hard to imagine a better lineup of games on a Thanksgiving Day, and no better game could headline the day than the battle of the brothers. John Harbaugh’s spent years in the league proving himself, while the upstart Jim Harbaugh has the Niners looking like the only team that could possibly keep pace with the Packers at this point. Nobody is winning games like the Niners this year, primarily on defense, with a quarterback who simply doesn’t make mistakes, but they also haven’t played a defense like the Ravens’. Ray Lewis may miss this matchup, but John shouldn’t need any extra help motivating his defense to a star performance this week.

Baltimore Ravens: 17-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-5):

It’s a testament to the flaws of the Green Bay defense that the Tampa Bay offense managed to put up 26 points. This is NOT a good offense, in no way similar last year’s, and it’s clearly struggled against solid defenses (see Houston, San Francisco), and every step forward seems to countered by a step back – LeGarette Blount goes off, Josh Freeman throws a couple more picks. Tennessee is maintaining its middle-of-the-road look on both sides of the ball, but it’s now in prime position to take control of the reeling AFC South after Schaub’s injury. This game will go a long way toward showing if the Titans can capitalize, and I think they’ll do so.

Tennessee Titans: 31-20

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4):

The Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Peterson didn’t have a very good shot at beating Atlanta in Atlanta. Without him? Well, Percy Harvin is the backup for a reason. The Vikings can’t stop anything on defense – its best talent is simply slowing down the running backs – and despite a flawed Falcons’ defense, Minnesota is too muddled on offense to take advantage. Falcons should keep pace with the Saints this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 28-13

Cleveland Browns (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4):

Cleveland finally managed to hold on for its first win in what feels like forever, despite one of the easiest schedules of the last month. The Browns are only two games behind the Bengals, but it feels like four or five from the way the two teams are playing. With the loss of A.J. Green last week, Andy Dalton showed it really is his talent that’s allowing the Bengals to keep pace for a shot at the wild card. Losing two in a row is never a good thing, but Cinci fans have to have hope with the way their team performed over the last two weeks, and this should be a good place to turn the corner.

Cincinnati Bengals: 14-10

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Indianapolis Colts (0-10):

Anything I say about the Colts at this point just makes me sound like a broken record. This team is going 0-16. Carolina, though, there’s a lot I can say about how bad this defense seems to be getting. Detroit has an explosive offense, but Kevin Smith isn’t that good. He was cut during the preseason for a reason. That said, Carolina should have another week to figure out where those holes are and plug them.

Carolina Panthers: 34-17

Arizona Cardinals (3-7) at St. Louis Rams (2-8):

Neither of these teams has a chance at respectability this year, but Arizona essentially stole one from the Rams in Phoenix earlier this year, and that gives the Rams something to play for right now. Plus, John Skelton makes Kevin Kolb look really, really good, and he’s really, really not.

St. Louis Rams: 23-7

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at New York Jets (5-5):

The Bills’ season was done before Fred Jackson was placed on IR. Now, it’s in the middle of the burial. Sadly – if you’re a Jets a fan – and hilariously – if you’re anyone else – the Jets are still on the same ground as Buffalo right now. Look for Buffalo to give the Jets a bit of a fight this time around, despite having to play in the Meadowlands, but they simply have nothing left on either side of the trench, and now their only playmaker is out for the season.

New York Jets: 31-14

Houston Texans (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7):

Houston fans have to be collectively yanking their hair out – or maybe it’s individually. Anybody know what Houstonites do in their spare time? – right now. They have what should be a cakewalk into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and Matt Schaub goes out for the season at the tail-end of a blowout on a simple QB sneak. Now … not so much. Thankfully, Matt Leinart has a week against the Jaguars to get his feet wet. He’ll struggle; Jacksonville’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but the Texans’ D and Arian Foster, plus the return of Andre Johnson, should be enough to keep the game in Houston control.

Houston Texans: 20-14

Chicago Bears (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (6-4):

Chicago didn’t get as lucky as Houston here, and it just missed out on reclaiming Orton, before facing against a Raiders’ defense that really, really likes playing inexperienced quarterbacks. The Bears were due for a bad game, but I don’t think they saw it playing out quite this way. Carson Palmer is finally meshing with the offense, Michael Bush is suiting up to be a perfect replacement for Darren McFadden, and the Bears’ hot streak is coming to a halt in the Black Hole.

Oakland Raiders: 24-17

Washington Redskins (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-6):

The Redskins are simply spiraling now. Mike Shanahan’s two-QB system is clearly not working out, and despite an effective defense, Washington just can’t seem to close out games. In a rivalry game that clearly mattered to them, the Skins weren’t able to pull out an overtime win. On the other hand, Seattle seems to improve every week, and as Sidney Rice and Marshawn Lynch both reach full health, the Seahawks may become some dangerous spoilers for the remainder of the season, including this week.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-17

New England Patriots (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6):

I’m getting really tired of having to deal with these schizophrenic birds, but I can actually see a legitimate reason for the Eagles’ win last week. Vince Young wasn’t great, but he also didn’t turn the ball over, and that’s been Philly’s biggest problem this year. The Eagles D gets a bad rap, but in weeks where it hasn’t had to compensate for three or four turnovers, it’s simply been shut down. Young doesn’t have the talents of Vick, but he isn’t consistently killing redzone drives week after week. New England’s defense, meanwhile, has finally begun showing signs of life and is officially no longer the worst D in the league. Wes Welker has gone into witness protection, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the rest of Tom Brady’s receiving corps have picked things up, and Philadelphia will struggle to hold the Pats down long enough to keep up.

New England Patriots: 30-17

Denver Broncos (5-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-6):

Tebow can do some amazing things at the end of games, but keep in mind, it’s his fault his team keeps being put in those positions in the first place. Denver’s turnaround is thanks entirely to a revamped defense, which has allowed 15, 24, 10 and 13 in its four wins in the previous five weeks. San Diego, meanwhile, has officially hit free-fall status. Ryan Mathews is now healthy but can’t hold onto the ball, Philip Rivers is having a simply awful year, and the defense can’t seem to hold anyone in check. That said, Denver is not a good enough team to win 5-of-6, and as bad as Rivers is, San Diego simply has too much talent to keep losing. Denver may be able to keep pace in this division, but for now, it’s taking a step back.

San Diego Chargers: 24-14

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6):

Anyone see Tyler Palko? Aside from being the real life equivalent of what would happen if Keanu Reeves and his replacements really did play, he’s not good. Not bad, but he’s not winning any games against any decent teams. Fortunately, the Chiefs managed to claim Orton off waivers and, as long as the AFC West keeps doing what it’s doing (losing) – Kansas City should be able to get back into the race as soon as next week. Of course, the Steelers have to love this. What suddenly looked like a tough road trip now boils down to one question: Can they shut down Dwayne Bowe? That’ll be a yes.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23-14

New York Giants (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-3):

The Giants don’t seem to be getting worse. They’re just losing every game they’re supposed to lose, which may still cost them a playoff slot. The run game has gone from sluggish to straight anemic in recent weeks, but Eli Manning is still playing lights-out. The defense has been solid, not spectacular, though, and that could cost them against New Orleans. The Saints simply seem to be on fire, with a fully healthy receiving corps and a stable of running backs who each seem to know when it’s their turn to chip in. Then of course, you have Drew Brees, who may shatter Dan Marino’s yardage record. The Saints can lose, but right now, they’re too hot to lose at home.

New Orleans Saints: 31-27

Week 11 NFL Predictions

Talk about a weekend of upsets. The Raiders started it off by handling the reeling Chargers at home, and it continued straight through Sunday night, where the supposedly reeling Patriots crushed the Jets at home. And few suffered from it more than my picks did. Aside from learning that not even guarantees are certain (paging Baltimore, anyone home?), Week 10 managed to show a few things. Green Bay is, barring a potential slipup in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, well on its way to an undefeated season. San Francisco is the NFL’s last best hope to stopping back-to-back championships for the Pack. Jim Schwartz’ purposeful lack of discipline is biting him yet again. Denver may well be in playoff range, and Baltimore is redefining “playing down to your opponent’s level.” But what might be most shocking is just how good Houston, and yet how bad they might be. Matt Schaub is officially out for the season, and what may be the NFL’s hottest team is now the AFC’s No. 1 team without three of its four best players. The parity in the NFL this year refuses to completely go away, but maybe Week 11 will help sort a few more things out. Here’s my picks:

Last Week: 6-10

Overall: 69-43

New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5):

It’s funny how fast a team can go from supposedly locking up its division to be counted out of the playoff race. The Jets did just that last week, and what we thought was an offense that was finally meshing just in time to take control of the AFC East was easily shut down by the league’s worst defense. New York’s defense is still as solid as ever, but the Band-aids have been ripped away from the kinks in the Jets’ offense and the fractures still haven’t healed. Denver, meanwhile, is enjoying the exact opposite trend. Counted out of the playoff race less than two weeks ago, the Broncos have been the benefactors of an entire division reeling and are now just a game out of first. John Fox finally wised up and let Tebow do Tebow’s thing (run the ball, win games, polarize America, etc.) and the Broncos have a chance for their first statement win (and home win) of the Tebow era.

Denver Broncos: 21-17

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4):

In the past four games, the Titans have gone from being demolished by the Texans on their own field to demolishing Cam Newton and the Panthers on their home field. True, Chris Johnson seems to have finally woken up, but that doesn’t explain how a defense that seemed to be on the edge of falling apart managed to shut down the league’s most dynamic rookie. Meanwhile, Atlanta, who was previously a lockdown choice at home, has dropped 3-of-5, including the overtime loss to New Orleans last week. It doesn’t matter the outcome, Mike Smith made the right call. He had the home-field advantage, a good quarterback and would have been relying on a sieve of a defense had he punted. It just didn’t work. He won’t need to make that call this week, though. Unless Johnson goes for 200, the Titans are not going to hand Atlanta its second home loss in as many weeks.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3):

This isn’t the way it was supposed to work for Newton. The Panthers were supposed to come off a bye full of energy, ready to whip up on the Titans before hitting the meat of their schedule. Now, they’re the whipping boys, and they’re walking into Ford Field to play a team that looks more ready to murder the opposing team than take the field against it. Speaking of which, Schwartz had this issue in Tennessee. Both he and former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher bred that kind of living-on-the-edge attitude (see Cortland Finnegan) on the defense, and while it took Tennessee to a 13-3 record in ’08, it also resulted in a complete collapse against the Steelers in the playoffs. Schwartz seemed to have hit that same road block against Chicago last week. For Matt Stafford’s part, he should be suspended. He instigated the brawl with a viciously cheap move and deserved his payback (although I’m not condoning that either. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise). If Detroit has any hopes of surviving a nuclear meltdown, Schwartz better have the off-field issues settled before Sunday.

Detroit Lions: 31-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6):

Jacksonville looks like a team that’s shocked to have won three games, while Cleveland is doing its best to show it too can have a shot at Andrew Luck if it wants. Both sides feature anemic offenses, although both run games have some upside. However, I would not advise keeping the TV on CBS if this is your regional game.

Cleveland Browns: 17-12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (9-0):

Sometimes good teams get blown out. They’re on the road, they have a bad game, and it’s really just a one-time thing. Good teams do not get blown out twice in one season, with the second one coming at home. The playing ability of the Bucs has managed to disappear in less than a year’s time, but a lot of this is the coaching. Given the offensive weapon LeGarette Blount is, the fact that he’s averaging nowhere near 20 carries per game is mind boggling. For instance, Raheem Morris should just look at Green Bay. That’s an offense in sync. He should get a good, long look this weekend.

Green Bay Packers: 34-17

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7):

Buffalo didn’t exactly pass its two-week test (OK, two blowouts is a failure), but strangely enough, it’s still very much alive in the wild-card chase. Unfortunately, now the Bills have to deal with a resurgent Miami team being led by former castoff Reggie Bush. (The Dolphins have a way with washed-up running backs, don’t they?) Buffalo doesn’t seem like the type of team to take two beatings in a row while lying down, but it’s hard to see any fire in this team right now. Miami actually seems like it’s playing with a purpose and finally figured out the secret to winning at home, which is gonna make Buffalo’s task extremely difficult this week.

Miami Dolphins: 27-17

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7):

Carson Palmer couldn’t have timed his comeback any better, hitting his stride just as the rest of the AFC West is falling down around him. The Vikings…well, Christian Ponder looks good for next year at least. Adrian Peterson should have a fun time gashing the Raiders porous run D, but the Vikings just have too little on pass coverage to slow down Carson Palmer at this point.

Oakland Raiders: 24-20

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6):

I’m not picking the Skins anymore. They just embarrass me.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-14

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3):

Considering the defenses Andy Dalton faces in the AFC North, he’s doing incredibly well for being tossed in the fire. (Get it, ‘cause he’s a redhead? No? OK…) Unfortunately for the Bengals, dynasties usually don’t change overnight, and that includes taking complete control of a division after almost a decade of ineptitude. And can Baltimore please make up its mind? The Ravens are causing me and a lot of other “experts” a ton of headaches with their beat-down-the-good-guy-lose-to-the-bad-guy act. Lucky for them, that bad loss already came and Cincinnati is good right now, so all the right Ravens players should show up. Should.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-23

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-7):

Apparently, the Hawks found a game plan. Give the ball to Marshawn Lynch. A lot. With Lynch back in the lineup, Seattle managed to completely control Baltimore last week. Of course, this is the same team that almost beat Atlanta in Atlanta, but then lost to Cleveland 6-3. Meanwhile, if a 2-7 team can be considered hot, the Rams are just that. Cleveland held the Rams to only 13 last week, which is what the Browns do, but the Rams’ offense is looking much improved in recent weeks. Sam Bradford is starting to hit his passes, and Stephen Jackson has channeled his old self. Unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are improving just a little bit fast at this point.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-16

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1):

Guess which division has the best record over the last two weeks? Yup, it’s the NFC West, just like we all would’ve predicted. Everyone’s winning over there right now, but too bad that has to come to an end. Arizona got lucky to play the floundering Eagles last week, but the 49ers won’t be the same story. Alex Smith looks better by the game, and the Niners proved that even if Frank Gore goes down, they still have plenty of weapons. San Francisco should just about wrap up the division this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-16

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3):

I know December is the Chargers’ month, but I did not see this free fall coming. Philip Rivers is looking like the most dangerous (in masochistic terms) quarterback in football right now, and Ryan Mathews is coming off an injury at the wrong time. The Bears defense has gelled, their offensive line has figured out how to block, and Devin Hester is … well, Devin Hester. Chicago has a huge risk of a letdown after how emotional their game with Detroit got last week, but it shouldn’t be too hard to overcome against the reeling Chargers.

Chicago Bears: 27-21

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3):

I’m gonna stop picking the Eagles too. It’s pointless to explain the abilities of this team, because at the end of the day, it simply can’t win. Meanwhile, even in after a loss, people spend the week talking about how good Eli Manning’s comeback abilities are. Doesn’t bode well for the Eagles.

New York Giants: 28-14

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3):

The Chiefs stumbled their way through the easiest part of their schedule, finishing at a resounding 0-2 for the last two weeks, and now they face a reinvigorated Patriots team that lost for the first time in Foxborough, where they’re coming off their first home loss in years. The Chiefs may keep it a battle, if they can get the passing game going, especially against the league’s worst defense, but it’s going to be too much for him to handle alone.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Week 3 NFL Predictions

OK, so I’m only about 45 weeks late on this week’s entry, but in my defense … I don’t really have one. Laziness at its finest, ladies and gentlemen. I swear that’s gonna change this time around, though, so here’s this week’s picks (Fair warning: Lockout plus being overwhelmingly busy this summer means you probably shouldn’t quote me on these picks just yet.)

Denver Broncos (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1):

I’m not a fan of starting with this matchup. The Broncos are a bad team that can score in a hurry (when healthy). As I’ve always said and will continue to say, Kyle Orton is an underrated quarterback, and he doesn’t need all-star-caliber receivers to get his job done. But, however inept the Titans’ offense may look – seriously, what the heck, CJ? – their defense has definitely taken a step up this year, silencing a potent Ravens offense last week. Gotta give the edge to the Titans here.

Tennessee Titans – 24-17

Detroit Lions (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2):

Raise your hands if, in 2009, you saw Detroit walking into the Metrodome in 2011 as heavy favorites. Any hands up? OK, put them down, liars. Minnesota is awful this year. That previously unmovable defensive line is torn and shattered, the secondary is as suspect as it’s been for the last four years, only now the Vikings have no way to cover that up. Conveniently enough – at least from my completely unbiased point of view – Matt Stafford can probably boil water right now, he’s so hot. Look for Calvin Johnson to have another two-touchdown game. On the flipside, Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are about the only things the Vikings have going for them, and Detroit’s D-line could be the best in the nation. Good luck getting through Suh, guys.

Detroit Lions – 34-21

Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1):

This game should be renamed “A Day in the Life of Jay Cutler,” because that’s what’s going to happen to Aaron Rodgers. He’s gonna make fast friend with the turf and with Brian Urlacher, but then he’s going to score a lot. The issue the Packers are gonna have is finding a way to stop the Bears. When Cutler’s on – read: not getting decked every five seconds – Chicago has an incredibly efficient offense. And Green Bay may not have the answer. Look for the Bears to keep this division a three-way race for a little bit longer.

Chicago Bears – 27-23

New England Patriots (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-0):

When was the last time this game mattered? Like 2003? When was the last time Ryan Fitzpatrick mattered? When the Crimson student-athlete GPA was on the line? Seriously, though, Buffalo has the No. 1 scoring offense in the league, and New England is at a close third. Defense will be at a premium here, especially with New England’s Pat Chung out this week. Thankfully, Brady > Fitzpatrick. Always. Plus, losing 16 in a row just becomes mental at some point.

New England Patriots – 34-10

San Francisco (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1):

You know what? I like Andy Dalton, and I really like A.J. Green. Plus, Cedric Benson isn’t suspended for his jail time yet, so there’s also that. The 49ers are a decent team this year, but they are not contenders. Unlike most people, I’m gonna say Alex Smith has lucked out in the fact that he’s had as many offensive coordinators as he’s had years in the league. Otherwise, he’d be out of a job. Never good when your team is led by a guy like that. Also never good? Kicking off when your body is telling you it’s 10 a.m. Seriously, NFL, stop with these West-to-East-Coast-games at 1.

Cincinnati Bengals – 28-17

Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-1):

Miami can’t catch a break. Perennially playing for second in its division, and what should’ve been an easy non-division game against Houston suddenly turned into a game against the AFC South’s best. Now the Dolphins have to go up against up-and-coming Colt McCoy, after Tom Brady and Matt Schaub laid out exactly how to shred their defense. Oh, and they have no more running backs. The Browns have Peyton Hillis. (At least the Dolphins have Dan Carpenter. There’s that.)

Cleveland Browns – 23-15

Houston Texans (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1):

Don’t have a game preference this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET? Watch this one. The fireworks between Drew Brees and Schaub should put the Green Bay-Carolina game last week to shame. The only question I have is: Just how good is the Texans’ D? They stifled a stunted Colts offense and a bland Miami offense that no longer has its two top playmakers. Can they hold off Drew Brees and his circus in the Superdome? My guess: No.

New Orleans – 34-28

New York Giants (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1):

You know, everyone always talks about how stacked the lineup of the Eagles is. But nobody ever talks about how often that O-line allows Vick to get hit … or how Philly is supposed to handle opponents without Vick. And let’s not get started on that defense. The Giants, though, have a whole other world of issues on the D, and if Vick does manage to play the full game – which I think he will – they won’t have an answer.

Philadelphia Eagles – 28-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2):

Carolina’s had some poor fortune. Despite record-breaking numbers by Cam Newton – who, by the way, has made an official believer of me – the Panthers have nothing to show for it. That changes here. Jacksonville’s defense may be able to slow Cam down somewhat, but that offense has nothing that can scare anyone.

Carolina Panthers – 24-20

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-1):

You know what’s weird? Oakland being real, that’s what. Hasn’t happened since Rich Gannon’s days, which was a long time ago. But that’s what the black and silver are dealing with right now. A healthy Raiders offense should give even the Jets’ defense fits, and a healthy Raiders home crowd will give the whole Jets team fits. No hot dogs for Sanchize in this one.

Oakland Raiders – 17-14

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-2):

No one saw that Ravens loss coming. On an ugliness scale of 1-10, that was easily a 13. But let’s be honest here: Sam Bradford is still hurt, Stephen Jackson is still limping, Danny Amendola is still out. The Rams have nothing. Good time for Baltimore to show up in Missouri.

Baltimore Ravens – 31-13

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-1):

Now take the problems the Rams are having, triple them, and you may have some feeling of KC’s situation. Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles are both gone with ACL tears, along with Tony Moeaki. The Chiefs’ offense is clearly inept without Charlie Weis, and Philip Rivers is gonna have a field day with this defense. Chiefs’ reign in the AFC West ends with this game.

San Diego Chargers – 34-20

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2):

People keep knocking Kevin Kolb, but all I see is a decent QB with enough weapons to put points on the board. Plus, the Cardinals have one of the most underrated defenses in football. Meanwhile, Seattle dumped their franchise QB for … Tavaris Jackson? I feel like Pete Carroll wants to get fired. Until the Seahawks wizen up and find a new QB, that 0 behind their name will stick around for a while.

Arizona Cardinals – 21-10

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1):

The NFC’s best division of coming out of Week 2 at 1-7, thanks in large part to these two teams. Now, one has to decide which is going to stay in contention for the top of the division. Matt Ryan is legit, we’ve already seen, but nobody has end-game numbers like Josh Freeman. In Tampa, in what’s guaranteed to be a close game, look for another fourth-quarter victory to notch in Freeman’s belt.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 24-21

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2):

Think NBC regrets scheduling this one? Yep …

Pittsburgh Steelers – 34-14

Washington Redskins (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1):

Dallas just seems like a house of cards to me. Credit Tony Romo for fighting through some ridiculous injuries for this team, but fact remains he lost to the Jets, and the Cowboys have no legitimate substitute for him. Meanwhile, the Skins, like the Bears before them, will center solely around whether good Rex or bad Rex shows up that day. In a rivalry game that seems to mean a lot more to Cowboys faithful than to anyone else, I don’t see good Rex making it through. Cowboys find above .500 for the first time in a year.

Dallas Cowboys – 28-21

Week 9 NFL Predictions

I’ve got awesome news for you guys, and I know every last one of you will care. Care to hazard a guess? … That’s right. Detroit is still in contention for the NFC North with a win over the Jets today. We all knew it was coming …

OK, so I’m kidding (sort of). But I’ve got plenty of reasons to be excited. As one friend put it, the Pack laid the groundwork on how to shut down the Jets, and if the Lions follow it, they should coast. The Lions offense literally can’t be stopped right now. It’s the fact that they’re giving up almost 25 points a game that’s killing them.

Also, the Titans are on bye this week, so I can spend the next seven days praying that I dreamed the waiver claim. Too bad that part won’t happen.

With that, here’re this week’s picks:

*Week 8: 9-4

*Overall: 39-30

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (0-7): The depressing downward spiral of the Bears only gets worse here, I’m afraid. Buffalo has been too close too many times to not be able to pull one out, while Jay Cutler seems to be hanging on by a very thin thread.

As of right now, Mike Martz seems like he’s actually trying to get Cutler killed, and he’s doing a pretty good job. And somehow, Ryan Fitzpatrick (who knew? Better yet, who knows?) has been the spark the Bills have needed to finally put up some points this season.

Bills over Bears: 24-17

New York Jets (5-2) at Detroit Lions (2-5): I’ll be honest: I may have a little fan bias on this one. But I’m looking at a Lions team that is putting up 25 points per game, has only been truly beaten once (Week 3, Minnesota), seems like they’re defense is actually becoming something special, and Detroit’s had an extra week to prepare for a Jets team that looked completely flummoxed by the Pack last week.

I’m not saying I’ve forgotten about Mark Sanchez and his best receiving corps and backfield that money can buy; I’m just saying I think Detroit can score more. And that’s what wins games, my friends.

Lions over Jets: 31-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (5-2): Raheem Morris truly believes he has the best team in the conference. That’s a lovely sentiment, but the reality is, it has the best schedule in the conference. The Buccaneers are a potential playoff team, and Josh Freeman looks like he’s settled in, but they are not beating Mike Smith, Matt Ryan and co. at home, when first place in the division is on the line.

Falcons over Buccaneers: 24-10

New England Patriots (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-5): You know what’d be really funny? If Brady threw the game-losing interception because he forgot to sweep his hair out of his eyes before the snap. But really, I think the Patriots will struggle. One New England receiver has been able to go off each week, which has saved the offense from exposure, but what happens when a team shuts Welker and Branch down and the unknown backups can’t pick up the slack? We know they can’t fall back on a running game.

Meanwhile, that’s about Cleveland has. If Peyton Hillis were playing for, say, a playoff team, he would probably have 700 yards and 10 TDs right now. He is that good. The best part about Cleveland, though, is that it fights. Detroit and Buffalo aside, this team has probably suffered more close losses than anyone in the league. But occasionally, it’ll be a close win. Plus, I think it’s fun watching the experts struggle with all this “parody” this year.

Browns over Patriots: 34-17 (I didn’t say it would be close, did I?)

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5): I almost said, “Here’s a game that doesn’t matter.” Then I remember the Cardinals are in the NFC West, and it very much does matter. I’m hesitant to say the Cardinals’ motivation will be enough to pull out a win for this one, just because they really have nothing on offense. Occasionally, you’ll get the unexpected performance out of them – like the 30-17 trouncing they put on New Orleans – but this is not a good offensive team.

The biggest weakness for the Vikings, I think, aside from Favre, is their defense right now. It’s not bad, but it certainly isn’t playing up to the level it should be. That being said, Sidney Rice is coming back, and it’s the Cardinals at home. They should survive.

Vikings over Cardinals: 27-20

New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-6): The Saints have a nasty tendency to just get trounced by the awful teams – this is actually a good thing come playoff time, if you think about it – but I think the Panthers are awful enough that this doesn’t matter, especially since the Saints won’t be taking them lightly after their first meeting. Remember how I said for five weeks that I still thought Carolina had playoff potential? Yeah … that’s really all I’ve got to say on that.

Saints over Panthers: 31-17

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2): I do not understand the Dolphins. How do you 4-0 on the road and 0-3 at home? Maybe the visiting team is so stunned by the women in South Beach that they have extra incentive? Who knows. Either way, ‘Phins are on the road, so it’s moot. The big thing here is that Dan Carpenter is healthy, and Miami’s going to need that leg against a team that historically relies on its kicker.

I think this game comes down to Ray Rice, though. He’s been less than stellar this year, having only one truly great game and scoring both of his touchdowns then. The Ravens have a great receiving corps and Flacco looks solid this year, but if Rice doesn’t get it going, even with McGahee playing well, it’s just hard to see the Ravens putting up enough points to match Miami. Good news is, Rice is due for another good game.

Ravens over Dolphins: 24-19 (Yes, I do think the ‘Phins will kick four field goals.)

San Diego Chargers (3-5) at Houston Texans (4-3): By all accounts, the Chargers should be dead, out of the playoff running. But they do this every year, plus have the No. 1 offense and defense in the NFL right now (explain that one). The problem is, the majority of that No. 1 offense comes in the form of Antonio Gates, who isn’t playing this week. Rivers has made it work with receivers that I bet you couldn’t name even if you watched the Chargers play a week ago, but at Houston, against an offense that can score whichever way it feels like, will be a challenge.

Houston meanwhile, just seems to lack a winner’s mindset. Maybe it’s because this franchise isn’t used to be a contender, but it continues to underperform with the talent it has. This offense should be miles ahead of everyone in the league, and yet Matt Schaub is barely averaging 200 yards per game. The bye week and the home field should help tremendously, but the Texans need to do some serious soul searching.

Texans over Chargers: 28-25

New York Giants (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3): Anybody else out there think all those Giants bandwagoners are going to look hilarious when they fall/jump/dive off that wagon in the coming weeks? Ahmad Bradhsaw is playing out of his mind, yes, and Eli Manning is having a decent year. But let’s keep in mind, I said Eli. You know, choke artist who redefines family of choke artists? (Let’s keep this straight: I love Peyton Manning, but the man can not win big games when it matters.)

Also, I hate enigmas. And the Seahawks are an enigma. They’re not just good at home, bad on the road. They are ridiculously good at home and ridiculously bad on the road. It’s like they forget how to play the second they leave Qwest Field. Lucky for them, they’re at Qwest. And they’re due for another rushing touchdown. Yeah, they have two. For the season. Total. Ew.

Seahawks over Giants: 28-17

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4): I don’t think this game has mattered since it was a big deal that Bo Jackson played football for Oakland and baseball for Kansas City. But New England West – I’m sorry, I mean Kansas City – has built an extremely solid team, thanks to the help of a great coaching staff, a great backfield, and a defense full of young future Pro Bowlers. I said I expected 10-6 from the Chiefs, but even I’m shocked at how well this team is closing out games.

The Raiders, meanwhile, I don’t understand. So they bench Campbell, put up 59 points, bring Campbell back, put up 33 points. Seriously, what the heck? I knew their defense could be shut-down, as long as it focused on the run, but I always assumed that means 17-10 games, not 59-14 ones. Here’s the problem, though: Oakland’s run D is not good, and the last two weeks, it’s faced teams that would struggle to run the ball even with only four guys playing defense.

Kansas City is not that flawed. Look for 350 yards on the ground and for the Raiders to come crashing back down to reality.

Chiefs over Raiders: 34-20

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-3): I know I said Peyton isn’t clutch, but his talent still irks me. It isn’t fair how somebody minus the nation’s best tight end, using several undrafted or high-round-pick wide receivers can simply keep chugging along at a 4,000-yard-per-season pace. I don’t think Philly will slow him down, but I do think they’re going to leave him bruised and battered.

As for the Eagles, he’s baaaaack. I can’t believe I’m admitting that Vick seems to be legitimate at this point, but what he’s done for this team is unreal. It’s motivated and playing well beyond what its talent level should be accomplished. And here, the team’s at home against Indy. And I think that’s the edge the Eagles are going to need for this week.

Eagles over Colts: 21-17

Dallas Cowboys (1-6) at Green Bay Packers (5-3): It would be funny if Dallas came into Green Bay and shocked the world with a win. And it would keep NBC from trying to put a hit out on Jerry Jones after scheduling this game. But it’s not going to happen. I’ve never a seen a team as talented as this, yet so dysfunctional.

Packers over Cowboys: 34-14

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-5): ESPN is silently considering the same thing as NBC. They were thinking division title implications at this point. As much as Ben Roethlisberger irritates me, it’s hard to argue with how good he makes this team, which was already one of the best in the league without a proven quarterback.

As for Cincinnati, the only trouble they give teams is figuring out how to spell that city (seriously, I misspell it every time). Plus, Roethlisberger gets a chance to seek a little vengeance against the team that swept the Steelers last year, on its own turf. You don’t think the Steelers are drooling a little bit over this one? I do think Palmer and the Bengals will be able to put up some great numbers against Pittsburgh today, but it’s not going to be enough.

Steelers over Bengals: 28-20

Week 5 NFL Predictions

Whoops…silly Fall Break. I completely forgot about making picks. Just the picks and a short explanation now; I’ll try to elaborate later.

It’s the week of the underdog this week, though. I’m feelin’ it.

*Week 4: 9-5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: This game saddens me. If any team is as bad as the 2008 Lions, it’s this Bills team. Too bad they’re just good enough to win against a lousy Jags team at home.

Bills over Jaguars: 23-17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals: I wasn’t wrong about the Bengals. Lucky for them, though, I’m not wrong about the Bucs. That undefeated record is going to seem like it was years ago for the Bucs.

Bengals over Buccaneers: 31-14

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns: Peyton Hillis is legit. The Falcons’ run D is not. But I just can’t see Cleveland holding on against two high-caliber quarterbacks in a row.

Falcons over Browns: 24-14

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions: I swear the schedulers did this on purpose for all the bad teams. St. Louis is far better than it was last year, but so is Detroit, and playing at home should be enough for the Lions.

Lions over Rams: 34-26

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: Poor Chiefs. No recognition so far, and not going to receive any after Peyton Manning vents.

Colts over Chiefs: 35-17

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: Green Bay worries me. Shouldn’t be giving up 26 points to the Lions, who can barely run. Rodgers will also be facing his hardest test this season.

Redskins over Packers: 21-17

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: Remember what I said about the talent gap in the NFL last week? Yeah, Carolina isn’t that much worse than everyone else. And they get a Jay Cutler-less Bears at home.

Panthers over Bears: 17-14

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: The reason I don’t get on the Cutler bandwagon is because I’m too busy on the Kyle Orton one. But Denver’s a one-dimensional offense, and Baltimore has to love that.

Ravens over Broncos: 27-17

New York Giants at Houston Texans: Yes, Schaub will take sacks. He did it all last year and still led the league in passing. Eli Manning faces a porous secondary, but this is Eli, not Peyton.

Texans over Giants: 24-20

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are disgustingly bad. Seriously, teams should not lose by as many points as they do. Plus, Max Hall is making his QB debut … against the Saints. Not smart, Whisenhunt.

Saints over Cardinals: 27-10

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys: This one gives me the most trouble. Cowboys as a whole are schizophrenic, while the Titans seem good enough, but not willing to put games away.

Cowboys over Titans: 17-16

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: Oakland’s getting better, but the defense needs to work on stopping Philip Rivers, which it hasn’t done since Rivers got the starting nod in Oakland. Plus, Ryan Matthews is pretty good, while Darren McFadden is out.

Chargers over Raiders: 23-16

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: I can’t say I like the 49ers this week, but they’re not 0-4 bad. Plus, look for Kevin Kolb to be jittery behind the Eagles’ porous O-line, and keep in mind, Philly has to switch its offensive game plan depending on the starting QB.

49ers over Eagles: 17-14

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets: The Vikings have Moss, so this cures all their problems now! ... Right? Wrong. He’ll stretch the field, but the Jets are just too good, and seriously, Brett Favre is too old. And the game’s in New York. Uh-uh old man.

Jets over Vikings: 27-21