I love the last few weeks of the regular season. The good teams do what they need to do to get into the playoffs, the bad teams just keep trying to play spoiler, and of course the really bad teams (or just confused ones) fire their head coach because, despite his success, they just really don’t like him. That’s OK, Kansas City, mediocrity is obviously preferable to your GM and HC playing nice. That’s why the last time you won a playoff game was with another team’s aging scraps (Joe Montana).
In a surprising twist on the Tebow beat, the Broncos came back from 10 down with less than 2 minutes remaining to beat the hapless Chicago Bears. Of course, Tim Tebow should again get all the credit, despite the fact that the Broncos were scoreless for 58 minutes, the Bears only put up 10, Marion Barber stepped out of bounds with 56 seconds remaining, rather than dropping to the grass and later fumbled the ball in field-goal range in overtime, and Matt Prater calmly booted two 50-yarders – including an absolutely absurd 59-yarder as time expired – but clearly, this is all a product of Tim Tebow’s phenomenal skills as a quarterback. But I digress.
I saw a SportsCenter question earlier today asking which was more likely: the Packers going 16-0 or the Colts going 0-16? The answer? Both are happening, so long as Mike McCarthy doesn’t do the foolish thing and bench his starters against Detroit in Week 17. Congratulations to Green Bay, and to Indy, welcome to the club. Population: 3, but we’re working on that. With that, here are Week 15’s picks:
Last Week: 11-4
Total: 115-59
Jacksonville (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5):
You know, I specifically said last week that if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were to play the Colts now, the Colts would win a game this season … and then I pick the Bucs over Jacksonville. Someone tell me why I would do this? Because I’m not really sure. But great job, Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn’t just have a career day, with an incredible four touchdowns and over 100 total yards. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s not the kind of team that just hands the ball off to the defense multiples times inside their own 10. Jacksonville’s defense is stout, but not enough to stop the (growing) number of weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal, and if Atlanta holds MJD in check, the Jaguars simply have nothing.
Atlanta Falcons: 27-17
Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):
Time for everybody in Dallas to get their hard hats out again, because this thing’s about to collapse yet again. And Dallas fans, don’t you dare blame this on Dan Bailey. Should he have made that field goal against Arizona? Yes, and he did. Not his fault his coach iced him and he shockingly missed the second of two kicks that have a less than 50-50 shot of going in. And Jason Pierre-Paul simply played lights out last week, right down to blocking that final kick. DeMarco Murray going down and weak defensive play put the Cowboys in this potentially devastating position, not Bailey or – for once – Tony Romo. Thankfully, like I said, the Buccaneers are very, very bad. This is a game Tampa Bay really needs to win if Raheem Morris wants to keep his job, because the Bucs simply have no excuse for their lack of performance this year. However, they just don’t seem to have it together enough to stop a team that’s also viewing this as a must-win game.
Dallas Cowboys: 31-20
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13):
Two things: 1) Tennessee was a New Orleans extra point – the Saints went for two on their final TD – from playing in its fourth-straight 23-17 games. I’m not Elias, but I’m sure that has to be some kind of record, considering the last time three straight happened was like 60 years ago. 2) There are what some to be very credible reports of the Saints’ sideline blowing a whistle during the Titans’ final, and ultimately futile, drive. If those reports turn out to be true, New Orleans could take a hit bigger than what Spygate did to New England. Sean Payton and Drew Brees are considered class individuals, and for either of them to allow an individual on their team to do something like trying to trick the Titans’ offense into a mistake is despicable. Oh, right, the score for this one:
Tennessee Titans: 27-13
Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6):
I said earlier in the year that good teams tend to respond to blowout losses with great performances of their own. The Raiders looked awful in their game against Green Bay, but it was one no one expected them to win, so in terms of standings, it doesn’t really matter (Pride is another matter, though. Seriously, Oakland, ew.) The good thing is, the Raiders match up incredibly well with the Lions. Their porous run defense shouldn’t be much of a factor with the Lions anemic run game, especially if Kevin Smith misses this week. Their pass defense isn’t great, but it should be enough to slow down Detroit if the Lions’ only option is through the air. On the other side of the ball, Denarius Moore should be back, giving Carson Palmer a full list of targets again. The Lions’ D, bipolar at the best of time, will have to be nearly flawless for a full 60 minutes, something it hasn’t done since Week 8 at Denver, and won’t be able to do now.
Oakland Raiders: 24-13
Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8):
The firing of Tony Sparano wasn’t a well-timed move, but it was necessary for Miami to begin searching for its next coach and to go ahead and become recovering from the past four years. The Dolphins laid an egg against the Eagles, and the firing could damage an already flawed team. Buffalo, meanwhile, seems to have recovered from its steady stream of season-ending injuries enough to make this season meaningful, if too late for a playoff push. Timing should be to thank for Buffalo’s first win in seven games.
Buffalo Bills: 28-20
Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6):
At first glance, Chicago still seems in prime position to hold on for a playoff spot, but that’s assuming you don’t realize just how bad Caleb Hanie is. I know the Denver defense has been good lately, but Marion Barber put up 140 total yards, and Chicago still scored only 10 points. The Seahawks, meanwhile, under the resurgence of Marshawn Lynch, are the guys I love for a dark-horse contender. Seattle has to win out, but right now, only two games behind Atlanta and Detroit (both of whom have to play their respective division leaders, New Orleans and Green Bay, yet) and playing as well as either, it has a good shot. It has to start this week, though, but given how aimless Chicago’s offense has been, unless Devin Hester returns a couple kicks for TD, Chicago won’t be able to limit Lynch enough to keep it close.
Seattle Seahawks: 17-7
Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8):
I think we can safely say that Green Bay has the perfect record if it wants it (whether that will continue through the playoffs is another question entirely), but after the Greg Jennings scare, McCarthy might be understandably worried about risking his players. Kansas City, meanwhile, should be settling nicely into its “turmoil” stage. I understand that GM Scott Pioli and Todd Haley weren’t getting along, but this is a classic instance of where individuals need to put personal feelings aside for the greater good. In the last two years, the Chiefs have looked better than they have in nearly two decades. You can claim that other teams have overcome injury, and so should the Chiefs, but Buffalo and Jacksonville aside – and seriously, look at those records – I really don’t see another roster that comes close to Kansas City. The Chiefs, at some point in the season, have lost an all-star safety, quarterback and running back for the season, as well as a starting linebacker, two wide receivers and a tight end. Teams just don’t recover from that. Regardless, it won’t affect this week’s outcome.
Green Bay Packers: 34-13
Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-11):
Let’s be clear here, guys. Cincinnati is the exact same team it was six weeks. It’s just faced a devastatingly good list of opponents, and this roster is too young to deal with that, especially since this gauntlet came around the time a lot of rookies tend to hit their wall. This is still a decent team with an outside shot of making the playoffs, and now it plays a St. Louis team that is unexplainably bad, with really only one decent weapon (Stephen Jackson). After this week, Cincinnati closes out the season with a home-stand against the Cardinals and a Ravens squad that will likely be resting a lot of its players. Don’t write these guys off just yet.
Cincinnati Bengals: 31-17
New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11):
Let’s get this straight: New Orleans is not Detroit. When the Vikings fall behind by 27 points, they’re not going to come back this time, because there is absolutely no way that the Saints’ D gives up that many points to a completely horrid offense that can’t decide which quarterback it wants to use right now.
New Orleans Saints: 38-13
Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6):
I’m so glad Shanahan has decided to leave Grossman in. It makes Redskins games much more entertaining. For instance, what should’ve been a blowout loss to New England was actually entertaining, because Washington had chances to score, and took full advantage. That said, the Giants are in the same boat as the Bengals. Nobody expected them to fare particularly well over the past few weeks, yet when they match those expectations, critics lambast them for losing. It wasn’t just Dallas choking last week, though. Eli Manning is a very, very good quarterback right now, and that defense can step up when needed to. New York owns the driver’s seat of the NFC East, and don’t expect it to relinquish it until at least Week 17.
New York Giants: 24-17
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3):
Carolina defense – exposed. That’s what happens when they go back up against good teams. Cam Newton, of course, just produces at a consistently incredible level, but like all rookies, he is going to make mistakes. The four turnovers against Atlanta in the second half were a bit extreme – seriously, if he just sits down, Carolina probably wins that game – but he will smooth out, and once Carolina can find a defense, it will be a contender for years to come. Houston, as improbable as it seems, survived its gauntlet stretch without either of its two starting quarterbacks or its star wide receiver and defensive end, but not only did the Texans survive, they thrived as owners of the league’s best defense and a seven-game win streak that shows no signs of ending in the regular season.
Houston Texans: 31-20
New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5):
Finally … finally, Denver faces a somewhat well-rounded team. (Let’s be honest, New England’s defense is horrible, but its offense phenomenal, so that makes up for it.) The Broncos biggest issue will be that the Patriots defense is just so bad. I don’t think anyone will argue that Tebow is truly an awful quarterback in the first three quarters, which means that the Patriots, notorious for not being able to actually stop a pass play at any point during the play, don’t even really have to try to hold him in check. Tom Brady, meanwhile, will give the Broncos their biggest defensive test since Week 8 against Detroit, a test they resoundingly failed, by the way. Denver should make this an entertaining game, but the game is going to get out reach far too quickly for any last-second Tebow-rics (Tebow … heroics … get it? No? I’ll stop.)
New England Patriots: 31-17
New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8):
I think I mentioned earlier that the Jets are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, thanks in large part to Rex Ryan not running his mouth every other day. It suits New York, because no one seems to be taking a Jets team that can easily go at least 10-6 seriously. Unfortunately, it seems like the Eagles only play best when completely ignored, which is what they’re doing right now. The defense worked together to shut down a good Miami team, and Michael Vick actually managed to go largely mistake free. Philadelphia should be able to do enough in these last three weeks to make the remaining regular season interesting and at least lock down Andy Reid’s job for next season.
Philadelphia Eagles: 21-16
Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7):
Cleveland just really isn’t a good team right now. They’re not horrendously bad, like Indianapolis or Tampa Bay, but they also can’t do anything more than just keep from getting blown out, which actually makes the Browns more boring. Arizona, meanwhile, is in the same position as Seattle, and may actually have a better setup. The Cardinals close out with two home games – one a final-week showdown with the Seahawks in what could become very interesting – and a road trip to Cincinnati. What makes this Cardinals team so interesting is that, Larry Fitzgerald aside, it really has no household names to explain why this turnaround (5 of their last 6) is happening. Even better, because there’s not a particular player opponents can gameplan for, it’s hard to shut down either side of the ball. Arizona will probably slip next week in Cincinnati, but for this week, at least, it should keep things interesting.
Arizona Cardinals: 17-10
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7):
By every right, Baltimore should win this game. The Chargers’ offense puts up turnovers as fast it puts up yards, and the defense, statistically, is sound but – thanks to turnovers again – tends to give up lots and lots of points. For the Ravens, Ray Rice is unstoppable, the receiving corps is so talented that, despite Joe Flacco’s inconsistency, at least one receiver is making plays week to week, and the defense has shown its ready for life after Ray (Lewis). There’s just one little problem: It’s December. Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in history in this month, and that shouldn’t change this week. In fact, the pressure and the nature of the Chargers’ opponent should mean Rivers is playing at his highest level.
San Diego Chargers: 24-20
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3):
It’s about time Monday Night Football got a game right, and of course it’ll be the one I miss. That aside, this could be one of the best games of the regular season, especially since it seems the Harbaughs will be working together to take down the Steelers … seriously, though, is that in any way ethical, John Harbaugh? Either way, with great defenses on either side, a nearly unstoppable quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) on one side and a nearly unstoppable running back (Frank Gore) on the other, the two teams couldn’t be much more unevenly matched. The deciding factor has to go to the home team, though. San Francisco hasn’t been relevant since 2002, and this week will be fighting for its right to hold onto a first-round bye. If that doesn’t drive these Niners fans to the game in droves, nothing will.
San Francisco 49ers: 20-17
