NFL Predictions - Week 1

It’s that time of year again, where we have 21 Sundays (and Thursdays, and Mondays, and Saturdays … man I love this game) of pure bliss. Lots of changes, lots of hype and, most importantly, lots of football. Since I pretty much forgot to do preseason picks this year, the record you see next to the team will be the record I predict for the season. (Since they’re all 0-0 right now, I figure you can handle that.) Playoff picks will be at the bottom. So without further ado, let’s go.

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Denver Broncos (11-5):

As you can see, I’m not high on Baltimore this year, and I think their problems start early. I know the acquisition of Elvis Dumervil helps shore up the linebacking hole that appeared in the Ravens’ defense this offseason, but there are simply too many pieces to that championship puzzle gone. I think the Ravens will be competitive, and I think they’ll right the ship, but they’re not going to do it Game 1 in Denver against an offense that could be the most efficient in the league this year.

 

The Broncos, on the flip side, went and got themselves a first-place schedule this year, so it’s unlikely they get a soft 13-3 like they did last year, but this is still going to be one of the AFC’s best. The loss of Dumervil hurts, and Von Miller’s suspension means the Broncos may even drop a game they should have early on, but there are simply too many good weapons that the Ravens haven’t had a chance to account for for Denver to lose tonight.

Denver Broncos: 35-24

New England Patriots (12-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-10):

I said this when the Patriots gave up on Welker, and I’ll reiterate it now: Refusing to sign Welker is going to mark the end of one of the NFL’s best dynasties. Like it or not, Tom Brady is aging, and while the system Bill Belichick has in place likely means that another quarterback can plug in and find some measure of success (a la Matt Cassel), New England has to be willing to pay key pieces to stick around for that transition. Ryan Mallett is not going to be able to lead this team to the playoffs in five years with Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins. But for now, the Patriot machine will keep on marching on, and since Buffalo’s much-maligned defensive line hasn’t changed much, it shouldn’t miss a beat this week.

 

For Buffalo’s part, EJ Manuel may well be the real deal … once he’s healthy. The Patriots secondary is a good start, but the front seven is going to give Manuel fits, even if he is “110 percent,” according to Chan Gailey. CJ Spiller will be as dynamic as ever, Fred Jackson’s no slouch, and Scott Chandler and Stevie Jones are solid receiving threats. The problem is the other side, where Jairus Byrd looks too miss significant playing time and Mario Williams, strangely, can’t be in ten places at once. Plus, a brutal schedule that starts with a season-opening loss at home, means there’s not much hope just yet in Buffalo.

New England Patriots: 31-17

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) at Chicago Bears (8-8):

I’m buying the Cincinnati hype. No, Andy Dalton will never be a hall-of-famer, but AJ Green is a true beast, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard are a serviceable running unit, and the defense should be one of the league’s monsters this year. With the slide of the Steelers’ and Ravens’ defenses, Cincinnati should be able to pace the AFC in defensive acumen, which should be enough to carry this team to a division title. Unfortunately, they’re going to run into a similar matchup against Chicago this week, and they’ll have to start from an 0-1 hole.

 

I don’t like the Marc Trestman hire for two reasons: 1) I don’t care what your arguments are for/against Lovie Smith, he took a team to 11-5 with a starting quarterback who couldn’t play 16 games if his life depended on it. And the you-didn’t-make-the-playoffs-so-you-should-be-fired argument is silly. A 10-6 team makes the playoffs every year; they just happened to lose the tiebreaker this year. 2) It seems like a terrible reach. I understand that he made Rich Gannon look like a real quarterback, but then he went to the CFL. Coaches don’t willingly go into obscurity like that, and rarely do they sit there for around a decade if they have something to offer. For both those reasons, and because the heart of the Bears defense is gone, I think this team is going to slide. But at least they’ll start off with a win.

Chicago Bears: 17-13

Miami Dolphins (9-7) at Cleveland Browns (6-10):

I think the Dolphins have a shot at winning the AFC East this year, and I also think it comes down to how they handle Cleveland in the first game, because games 2-4 are absolutely brutal, and I’ll be shocked if they win one, let alone two of those. Ryan Tannehill isn’t the next Dan Marino, but he has a legitimate threat at receiver, and if all the buzz holds up, Lamar Miller is a legitimate backfield threat. Miami’s run defense was middle of the road, but if the addition of Brent Grimes can help shore up what was a terrible secondary, the Dolphins have a shot at the playoffs. Unfortunately, I think they slip this week.

 

Cleveland is Cleveland. I’ve heard middling things about Brandon Weeden, but even if he steps it up, he has Trent Richardson and … well at least Richardson is a beast. What used to be a fairly good defense slipped last year, and a unit on either side of the ball is going to have to take a step up for the Browns to improve at all. Thankfully for them, the rest of the AFC North – Cincinnati aside – should be slipping back to the pack, so Cleveland should get an extra win or two this year, starting in Week 1.

Cleveland Browns: 23-20

 

Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at Detroit Lions (8-8):

I love Adrian Peterson. Now that I got that out of the way, I can try to think about this rationally. AD is going to go down as one of the best backs of all time, provided he stays healthy, and last year, teams were already loading the box against him. To top it off, Minnesota added Greg Jennings to relieve a little of that pressure. But here’s the thing: Christian Ponder is terrible. Seriously, he threw for 58 yards against Arizona last year. He is terrible. Percy Harvin – when healthy – was a godsend, because Ponder didn’t have to make magical plays to get him the ball. Jennings? Yeah, he’s a deep threat. Also, that secondary is terrible. Jared Allen leads a phenomenal frontline that should be able to mitigate that somewhat, but with 12 games against high-end passing attacks, it’s hard to imagine AD able to go blow-for-blow with them.

 

Here’s the thing about Detroit: Two years ago, the Lions experienced a euphoric amount of luck. Last year, variance came crashing down and, despite having the best single-season receiver in NFL history, Detroit couldn’t pass the ball into the end zone to save its life … or season, since I guess that makes more sense. What we’re realistically looking at here is a team with a phenomenal passing attack made more dangerous by the addition of a very good receiving back in Reggie Bush, compromised by a terrible secondary that the Lions didn’t try nearly hard enough to fix. Even with the loss of Kyle Van den Bosch and Cliff Avril, the Lions front four should be enough to pressure the quarterback, but it’s not going to be enough to help Detroit steal games it shouldn’t win. Look for them to split the series with Minnesota, taking the one at home.

 

Detroit Lions: 27-21

  

Oakland Raiders (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6):

Here’s the thing about Oakland: I don’t have anything nice to say. The defense is still terrible. The coaching staff is laughable. They got rid of a 4,000 yard passer because he didn’t make them a playoff team, which is hard to do when your defense is giving up 25+ points week in and week out. The receiving corps isn’t bad, but there are no standouts, and Darren McFadden will probably be on IR by Week 8. There’s just nothing here.

 

So we know Andrew Luck is the real deal now. Even with a terrible defense (I literally looked at the season numbers for the first time just now. Yikes.), he was able to make this a playoff contender, and with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw and the breakout of TY Hilton, the offense should be more than able to compensate for any slack the defense gives up. Plus, a favorable schedule, despite the second-place finish, always helps.

Indianapolis Colts: 27-14

Atlanta Falcons (12-4) at New Orleans Saints (10-6):

I know Dallas is “America’s team” and all, but this game should really be prime time. The Falcons have been phenomenal for three years running, and Sean Payton is back, making the Saints an immediate playoff team again. But let’s focus on Atlanta: There’s not much to focus on here. The team is as solid as was a year ago, with the best record in the NFC and it only got better with the addition of Stephen Jackson. The Falcons signed Osi Umenyiora as well as drafting two cornerbacks this offseason, so the defense figures to be somewhat improved as well. A more competitive NFC this year means the Falcons aren’t looking at a 13-3 record, but they should still be near the top, and it’ll start with stealing one from New Orleans this weekend.

 

The Saints are coming. For all his boasting, Rob Ryan is actually an effective defensive coordinator, and given how much Sean Payton has proven he enjoys surprising defensive packages, Ryan should have the green light for just about everything, which should greatly improve the defense’s ability to make stops. Of course, the offense seemingly continues moving forward unfazed, and Drew Brees will more than likely hit 5,000 yards again this season. All this to say, the Saints will probably make the playoffs again this year, but they’ll start from a hole.

Atlanta Falcons: 35-31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) at New York Jets (6-10):

The Buccaneers are probably the biggest wild card going into the regular season. Slumps or no, Josh Freeman threw for more than 4,000 yards and scored more than 25 touchdowns last year, which means that potential for excellence is always there. Doug Martin’s breakout season means the Bucs always have a huge weapon to fall back on, either way. Tampa Bay’s rush defense was phenomenal, but the secondary was also one of the worst I can remember seeing in 20+ years of watching football. The Bucs have gone to some length trying to shore up that secondary, and if it works, this team is playoff material. However, that’s going to need a lot of improvement, and I don’t think it happens overnight.

 

Rex Ryan is a dead man walking, as far as I can tell. The Jets’ defense should be as good as it’s been in years, but the offense is a mess. Chris Ivory – third/fourth-string RB for the Saints last year, in case you didn’t know the name – is the “best” weapon on this offense that doesn’t seem to know what a starting quarterback looks like. The Jets only have about four guaranteed wins on their schedule, and I think the defense will be good enough to take a couple more, but overall, this team has nothing going for it.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-13

Tennessee Titans (7-9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6):

Terrible defense, terrible offense. I called this team way wrong last year, and I feel bad about it, because I love the Titans. But things should improve a little bit, because a) they can’t get much worse and b) the Titans have made tremendous moves to retool the offense to Chris Johnson’s liking. A revamped offensive line, as well what should be a very good quartet of receivers, should make Jake Locker a serviceable quarterback, freeing up some pressure from Chris Johnson. The Titans should do enough to keep Mike Munchak in his coaching position, but not much beyond that.

 

Every year, Pittsburgh seems to age just a little bit more and slip back to the pack a little bit more, but every year, it seems to keep on rolling. The defense finished top in the league in yard’s allowed last year, and even with a slip in that area, it should have a negligible impact. Losing Mike Wallace will hurt, especially since Heath Miller will likely be sitting out the first half of the season, but Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowls to his name for a reason. Even with a turnstile running back corps, the Steelers should be able to put together a wild-card run.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 24-16

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Carolina Panthers 8-8):

There’s not much I can say about the ‘Hawks that hasn’t already been said. Russell Wilson paid impressive dividends last year, Marshawn Lynch is still a Beast, and the defense is, well, you saw it. This team has all the pieces to make a Super Bowl run, even if it doesn’t finish with the best regular-season record.

 

Carolina, on the other hand, confuses me. As bad as the team seemed to be at the outset of 2012, a four-game win streak helped close the season with a respectable 7-9 record. Whatever Cam Newton had last year was not a slump. He may irk some people, but he’s a legitimate NFL starter, and he makes the Panthers’ offense work with aging, mediocre players. Steve Smith is still a legitimate threat, but Brandon LaFell is not, and the rash of injuries the Panthers have in the backfield mean Cam likely has no help coming from back there either. A much improved defense from a couple years ago should help Carolina stay in some games, but this is not yet a playoff team.

 

Seattle Seahawks: 24-20

Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13):

If you want a dark-horse playoff candidate, here you go. The Chiefs have all the pieces and a proven coach to put them together. Assuming Alex Smith continues his ridiculously accurate play, and Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs’ defensive playmakers can stay on the field, the Chiefs have a shot at the playoffs. However, given this team’s history, that’s unlikely, though there’s plenty to give the Chiefs hope for the future.

 

This team is terrible, from top to bottom. Maurice Jones-Drew is the Jaguars’ lone elite weapon – though the breakout of Cecil Shorts last year was a nice addition – on either side of the ball. The defense is terrible, Blaine Gabbert is average at best, and the management just doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do, other than clean house. No part of Jacksonville’s season will be pretty.

Kansas City Chiefs: 27-17

Arizona Cardinals (7-9) at St. Louis Rams (7-9):

If you need proof the NFC West is the best division in football, look no farther than these two teams. The addition of Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians immediately makes a former 4-12 team a legitimate playoff threat, while St. Louis managed to finish with a losing record, yet the best division record in the division. For Arizona, playoffs are a real possibility. Again, Palmer is a legitimate 4,000-yard, 25-TD threat, and he has one of the best weapons in the game to target, as well as a potential breakout in Michael Floyd. The addition of Rashard Mendenhall means that Arizona actually has potential in both dimensions, and a very good secondary should keep games from getting too out of hand.

 

For St. Louis, expectations haven’t been this high in a decade, and there’s a legitimate reason for this. A defense that went toe-to-toe with San Francisco and Seattle last year returns largely unscathed, and a healthy Sam Bradford should be a little more effective on the opposite side of the ball. Unfortunately, the ceiling for this team is pretty low, though it should be able to take one from Arizona to open the season.

St. Louis Rams: 13-10

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-5):

Green Bay looks the same as it has for almost five years now: serviceable defense propped up by probably the best quarterback in football, with an outside shot at actually having a running game. Of course, a phenomenal return man helps things out. The loss of Greg Jennings should hurt, at least until Jordy Nelson is fully healthy, and if Eddie Lacy pans out, this team has another legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run. This game should be phenomenal for the offensive-defensive contrast, as well as to see how Green Bay will be able to handle Colin Kaepernick now that it’s had an offseason to study him.

 

Somehow, some way, the Niners managed to improve on defense in the offseason, and I’m not entirely sure that’s fair. Kaepernick has to prove he wasn’t a fluke this season, and while I think he’ll play well, I don’t think we’re looking at quite another season like last year. Frank Gore will wear down at some point, and it looks like this may be the year – of course, LaMichael James waiting in the wings probably isn’t the worst option. San Fran is the favorite to rep the NFC in the Super Bowl for good reason, and they should show it Sunday afternoon.

San Francisco 49ers: 23-20

New York Giants (6-10) at Dallas Cowboys (7-9):

I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Giants. David Wilson will probably pan out, but Eli Manning has to be more consistent than he was down the stretch last year. The defense is sliding, and losing Umenyiora didn’t help matters at all. At some point, the floor will drop, and though Manning’s proven his ability to carry a team when it matters, I don’t see him doing it for the whole season.

 

Dallas, on the other hand, should be able to stick right in the middle of the road, where it’s been for several years now. A phenomenal passing attack, with a potential boost from DeMarco Murray, if he can stay healthy, should be able to keep them in games, but it will be interesting to see what kind of magic Monte Kiffin can do with Rob Ryan’s old players. Dallas should start off on the right side of .500 to start the season.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-21

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) at Washington Redskins (10-6):

Let’s be clear on one thing about the Eagles: This is not a bad football team. What happened last year was the result of a desperate coaching staff that knew if it didn’t find a magic formula, it was done. For all his issues, Michael Vick is still a dynamic athlete, and LeSean McCoy is still one of the best backs in the league. Losing Jeremy Maclin hurt, and Riley Cooper has clearly alienated himself, but Desean Jackson and Brent Celek are more than capable of stepping up to the plate if need be. The question here will be how the defense handles change. Losing Nnamdi Asamugha will impact a good secondary, but given Chip Kelly’s propensity for offensive explosiveness, it’s unlikely that he’ll be too concerned, even if this defense starts giving up 30 a game.

 

RGIII’s health is a serious issue. Kirk Cousins seems like he’d be a legitimate starter on almost every other team, but it’s Griffin’s two-dimensional aspect that makes the Redskins so dangerous. Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon highlight a slew of potential weapons for Griffin, and the Skins are clearly banking on young defensive backs to have the same impact on the other side of the ball. Even if that fails to pan out, however, this is a team that has enough help on both lines and skill positions to take the division with relative ease.

Washington Redskins: 31-21

Houston Texans (12-4) at San Diego Chargers(6-10):

The Texans made some funny moves with their offensive line over the offseason, but given the success Gary Kubiak has found in Arian Foster, I’m not going to question it until it stops working. With a healthy Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson, as well as the hopeful emergence of DeAndre Hopkins, Matt Schaub should be able to take some of that pressure off Foster and backup Ben Tate. Wade Phillips’ defensive will likely be able to stay just as dominant as it was the last couple years, even without any major free-agency splashes. Houston should face some trouble from the Colts but still be able to take the division again, as well as a potential No. 1 seed in the AFC.

 

Since it’s already in flux, the loss of its two top receivers, and the cut of Robert Meachem, means that San Diego is likely going to be looking up at the Chiefs and Broncos this year. The defense should maintain its success, since the Chargers retained John Pagano, but there’s little chance San Diego will find the end zone much, even with Philip Rivers under the helm. Look for Houston to run away with this game.

Houston Texans: 31-17

 

Playoff picture (seeded 1-6 respectively):

 

NFC:

Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay Packers

Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks

New Orleans Saints

 

AFC:

Houston Texans

New England Patriots

Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts

 

Super Bowl:

Atlanta Falcons over

Denver Broncos