Welp, last
week was terrible. I called three pretty big upsets, but that was offset by missing
about twice as many non-upsets. In my defense, though, everyone wrote Cleveland off, and nobody thought Minnesota was
actually that bad. After two games where the Giants shot themselves in the
foot, you had to think eventually they would stop making mistakes (they didn’t),
and you would think the same about the Steelers (nor did they). That said, Week
3 is one of the defining moments of an NFL season. You start to see who’s
shaping out to be real contenders and who was simply off to a hot start, which
should make this week much easier to follow. Sadly, no breaking blockbuster
trades to wax on this week.
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 30-18
San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at St.
Louis Rams (1-2):
I was
talking to a friend about the Niners this week, and we both agree, this team is
a complete anomaly. There’s no question that the team is phenomenally talented,
though with several glaring holes (made larger by Aldon Smith’s departure), and
1-2 isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, getting blown out twice in a row,
the latter at home against a team that had just finished being exposed, is just
inexcusable. My best guess is that this is a team that hyped its own self up
over the preseason – and knowing Jim Harbaugh, this isn’t a reach – and instead
of coming out and focusing on fixing its flaws, it just continued chugging
along, ignoring the issues, like lack of receivers and lack of Dashon Goldson,
thinking it was good enough to keep going. Well, it’s not, and that realization
will hit them sooner or later.
Meanwhile,
the Rams are about what I expected. This is not a bad team, but it’s playing in
a phenomenally tough division and has been on the road twice so far, against
two potential playoff teams. Now here’s where it gets tricky, though. The Rams
had the best division record in the NFC West last year, taking out both San
Fran and Seattle at home, and this Rams team is better than last year’s. That
said, the Rams still haven’t identified a run game, and they’ll be playing on a
short week against a team that’s more talented than them. San Francisco should
take this in a sloppy one.
San Francisco 49ers: 17-13
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo
Bills (1-2):
Like I said
in Week 1, I don’t want to overhype a team based off one blowout victory. The
Ravens were better than they’d played, and Houston had a lot of flaws that were
waiting to be exposed. This Ravens team, especially without Ray Rice (injury)
and Anquan Boldin (free agency) has issues. Bernard Pierce should find it
fairly easy to run the ball against this Bills defense, but Flacco has to start
connecting with Torrey Smith if they wanna keep up with the Bills offense.
Here’s the
thing about Baltimore’s defense: It’s not bad, but it’s gotten lucky. Matt
Schaub was uncharacteristically mistake-prone last week, and Cleveland’s
receivers apparently don’t have much professional experience at receiving.
Buffalo, however, could spell trouble. Even if C.J. Spiller doesn’t go, Fred
Jackson is dynamite, and EJ Manuel is quickly showing himself to be an NFL-caliber
quarterback. Look for the Bills to keep themselves in the conversation for
another week.
Buffalo Bills: 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at
Cleveland Browns (1-2):
I’m still
trying to process just how bad of a game that was between two very good squads.
Cincnnati capitalized on horrific Green Bay mistakes to jump out to a big lead,
only to come back with arguably worse mistakes of their own, allowing Aaron
Rodgers to potentially earn a comeback win in one of his worst games in the
last three years. AJ Green took the better part of three quarters to show up,
but Giovani Bernard has proven himself more than just a sub-in, and Andy Dalton
is playing much better than he did last year. Don’t expect Cinci to have one of
those types of offensive games again for a while.
Alright, I
felt like I was in the Matrix watching Cleveland play last week. A large part
of it was that I didn’t fully appreciate how bad Minnesota’s defense was, but another part was that this
Cleveland team actually looked like a team. The defense played well, as it
usually does, but Josh Gordon came roaring out of his suspension, making the
Vikings’ secondary look silly and Brian Hoyer look like an all-pro in the
process. This team did not suddenly become even a middle-of-the-pack team, but
it should at least be competitive until teams figure out how to slow down
Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon.
Cincinnati Bengals: 27-23
Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit
Lions (2-1):
Same thing I
said about Baltimore: Let’s not make that Bears win out to be more than it was.
The Bears’ defense is phenomenally opportunistic, and they’ve been that way for
the better part of a decade. However, Ben Roethlisberger made some bad, bad, bad decisions Sunday
night, and it helped to gloss over the fact that, yet again, the Bears seemed
to have trouble stopping the pass – they’re 24th in the league
there. However, the Bears’ defense does look incredibly efficient. It didn’t
need to do much to win last week, but the capability is there. This has definitely
become a playoff-caliber team.
However, it’s
not unbeatable. The Lions front seven has shown itself to be phenomenal at
shutting down runs between the tackles – if the runner can break contain, it’s
another matter entirely, though – and Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley spearhead
a line that will give every opposing line trouble this year. Cutler’s managed
to avoid being in trouble for much of the season, and Forte has been able to
bounce runs outside a lot. That shouldn’t be easy in Ford Field, and it will
take Cutler going to the air against a weak Lions secondary to win. On the flip
side, Nate Burleson is likely out this week, but Ryan Broyles isn’t necessarily
a step down. With Reggie Bush being healthy, the Lions’ playbook expands
dramatically, and as long as they can play mistake-free, it’ll be nearly
impossible for the Bears to slow them down.
Detroit Lions: 21-17
New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas
City Chiefs (3-0):
I don’t quite
know what to say about the Giants. They lost their first two games, granted,
but those were both difficult games to win, and they were competitive in both.
And then Carolina happened. Eli Manning looks like Jake Delhomme in the 2009
playoffs, seemingly unable to differentiate between offensive and defensive
targets. The offensive line is as porous as it gets, there’s no run game, and
the defense just looks lost for most of the game. This is the same football
team as last year, but it is in no way the same team as last year.
The Chiefs’
defense passed a major test in Philadelphia last week, holding Chip Kelly’s
up-tempo offense to an incredibly slow, and low-scoring, pace. But what’s more remarkable
is that the offense has yet to commit a turnover. Think about that. For 180
minutes of play, not a single Kansas City Chief has made a big mistake. The
Chiefs don’t have the most explosive offense, but if you’re an opposing
defense, it’s hard to win if the offense never gives you an opportunity to
capitalize on, and that’s what makes the Chiefs so good right now.
Kansas City Chiefs: 17-7
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) at
Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (LONDON):
I like to
think both these teams are so bad, we just kicked them out of the country until
one of them resolves its issues. But seriously, I don’t think Pitt is this bad.
It should be 2-1 right now, but with the slew of injuries the Steelers have
had, along with the number of mistakes Big Ben has made, it’s difficult for
even one of the league’s better defenses to earn a win. That should change,
though. Heath Miller is back, which takes a lot of pressure off Antonio Brown
and Emmanuel Sanders, and Le’Veon Bell is finally active, which should give the Steelers a shadow of a
two-dimensional offense.
Minnesota’s
games go like this: Give the ball to Adrian Peterson. Have him score the first
touchdown. Quit. Great for fans, because they can leave after a quarter,
terrible for the team, since those other three quarters count toward their W-L.
Christian Ponder is looking miles better than he did last year, but this is
still largely a one-dimensional offense – albeit one that matches up well with
the Pitt defense – and the secondary is atrocious. Sorry, London.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tampa
Bay Buccaneers (0-3):
I expected
there to be a learning curve for the Cardinals offense, but it wasn’t supposed
to be this steep. Even with Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield, there is no run
game, and Carson Palmer is Struggling. Granted, Larry Fitzgerald being hampered
hurts, but Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts are not bad options. What was
supposed to be a top-10 defense was shredded by Drew Brees, the first time he’s
done that all season. Against a tough Tampa defense in Tampa, it doesn’t look
to get any better any faster for the Cards, either.
Tampa Bay
has officially pulled the plug. Josh Freeman was benched, and Mike Glennon has
the starting nod. The two players are of a similar vein, so it shouldn’t affect
the actual playbook too much, but having your first career start when the coach’s
seat is starting to heat up is a tough motivation. Vincent Jackson and Mike
Williams are also dealing with injuries and are both questionable as well.
However, Tampa’s defense, Week 3 aside, has been extremely good, and will likely
be able to capitalize on an inefficient Arizona offense this week and let
Glennon get a win in his first start.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-13
Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3):
I’m not
entirely sure who showed up in San Francisco last week, but it didn’t look like
the Colts of the first two weeks. What amazes me was that the Colts were able
to win going away, when Frank Gore was able to average almost 8 yards per carry
against them in the first half. I didn’t watch the game, but it seems to me
that poor playcalling on San Fran’s part was almost as much a factor as good
defensive play. On the other side of the ball, though, Ahmad Bradshaw reminded
everybody what he’s like when he’s healthy. Once Trent Richardson gets up to
speed, the Colts could have a very dangerous offense.
I don’t like
writing about teams that are this bad, because it just gets repetitive, but I
did that last week for Cleveland, and I got embarrassed. So here it is,
Jacksonville, here’s your blurb. Cecil Shorts is awesome, especially when
second-string cornerbacks are guarding him in the third quarter, and MJD was
once a phenomenal running back and you’re wasting his talents right now.
Indianapolis Colts: 24-7
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston
Texans (2-1):
The Seahawks
will get their first true road test of the season this week, but I wouldn’t
expect much different from them. Marshawn Lynch will show up when they need
him, Russell Wilson will take the term “game manager” and make it seem like an
honorable title, and the Seahawks D should have no trouble containing a
banged-up and mistake-ridden Texans offense.
For the past
two seasons, the Texans have relied on two major facets: a phenomenal all-around
defense, and a run-heavy offense with quarterback play that simply is
mistake-free. Both of those are shot this season. The defense looks lost, and I’m
not entirely sure why. Arian Foster is still running slowly – though Ben Tate
should be able to make Seattle work a bit – and Matt Schaub is not playing like
Matt Schaub. Schaub was unable to move that ball against a fairly weak
secondary in Baltimore, and this week only gets tougher, especially with Andre
Johnson’s injuries still lingering.
Seattle Seahawks: 21-17
New York Jets (2-1) at Tennessee
Titans (2-1):
I know it
wasn’t against a very weak Bills defense, but I liked what I saw in Geno Smith
last week. He made a couple of huge plays (that the Bills couldn’t capitalize
on), but overall was very effective and made himself a matchup nightmare for
the Bills. Santonio Holmes and Chris Ivory injuries will make the offense a
little weaker than it looked last week, especially against a tough Titans
squad. Manuel’s dual-threat ability seemed to give the Jets’ defense some
pause, though, and that doesn’t bode well heading into Jake Locker’s home.
I picked the
Titans to win last week, but I didn’t expect them to do it on defensive
laurels. This is a defense that was one of the worst in the league last year,
and while a few upgrades were made, it’s largely the same squad, though with a
new defensive coordinator. Against San Diego though, the Titans were able to
shut down what had been a very effective Philip Rivers passing attack, and Jake
Locker and Chris Johnson were able to do just enough to win, incredible 35-yard
touchdown to Justin Hunter included. This week, expect more of the same, as
both defenses should carry the load, but with the Titans offense able to do
just a little bit more.
Tennessee Titans: 17-13
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver
Broncos (3-0):
So it
officially took two weeks to figure out how to stop this offenses, huh? Props
to Chip Kelly for implementing it and in a couple years, when he has a younger
squad, this should be very effective, but as of now, it seems like it takes
perfect execution by Michael Vick for this to work, even with LeSean McCoy
literally looking like he walked out of Madden. In the Mile High City, though,
this offense will be a problem. Successful or no, it means the defense will be
on the field the majority of the game, and that’s not something you can do in
Denver against Peyton Manning’s offense.
The Broncos
are as good as the Jaguars are bad, and I really don’t have much else to say.
Manning just finished arguably the best three-game stretch in NFL history, and
with three legitimate starting running backs, it’s impossible for defenses to
focus on stopping him. Defensively, Denver seems to have fixed just about the
holes Baltimore exposed in Week 1, and even managed to hold a goal-line stand
against a pretty good read-option quarterback. Philadelphia will likely get its
yards, but don’t look for the Eagles to match the Broncos point-for-point.
Denver Broncos: 40-23
Washington Redskins (0-3) at
Oakland Raiders (1-2):
I’m a little
confused by RGIII’s timidity. He’s on pace for 5,000 yards as a dropback
passer, but every time he plants, I can feel
him flinching, and that’s costing the Skins heavily, as it seems to take him
several drives to acclimate himself. Additionally, this whole concept of using
him as a pocket passer is just silly. He got hurt, yes, but that’s the risk he
runs with the style of game he plays. Making him one-dimensional makes this
offense very predictable, and when you have, through three games, the worst
defense in the history of the NFL, that’s very bad.
Here’s the
problem with Oakland right now (other than it’s not very good). With Terrelle
Pryor, this offense is unpredictable enough to give opposing defenses fits,
which allows Oakland to at least look competitive. With Matt Flynn, the passing
game likely takes a huge step up, but without marquee receivers, it’s still
fairly easy to cover. Since Pryor is practicing right now, and looks like he
may be probable, I’m going to say that Oakland should get the win here.
Oakland Raiders: 34-24
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Diego
Chargers (1-2):
For one game
a year, DeMarco Murray looks like the best back in the league. Unfortunately,
there are no more Rams on the schedule, so Murray just goes back to being a
fairly good player. However, Tony Romo has been playing very efficiently this
season, and even with Miles Austin struggling along, and Dez doubled all game
long, he’s managed to make this a primarily airborne offense. That should get
easier this week, since San Diego has given up the most passing touchdowns of
any defense in the league to this point.
This Chargers
squad has already proven itself to be better than last year’s, I think,
but the offense is still largely
one-dimensional and extremely thin. Philip Rivers has actually played like a
4,000-yard, 25-TD passer this year, but Ryan Mathews and just about the entire
defense have looked incapable of paying 60 minutes. However, even though Monte
Kiffin’s defense looked excellent against the Rams, the Chargers should have
enough weapons to make this game a track meet, and so far, the Chargers have
the market on that kind of experience.
San Diego Chargers: 33-28
New England Patriots (3-0) at
Atlanta Falcons (1-2):
So Rob
Gronkowski should be back this week … right? Maybe? Kind of? This is where the
Patriots’ mysteriousness gets to be annoying; however, Kenbrell Thompkins and
Aaron Dobson finally looked like NFL receivers last week, and Stevan Ridley
seems to finally be gaining Bill Belichick’s trust again. The Jarod Mayo-led defense is the
real story so far this season. Tampa Bay is not a good football team, but
holding that squad completely ineffective for most of the game is still a feat,
and it should be able to give the struggling Falcons fits this week.
Atlanta
should be 3-0 right now. It had two opportunities to win against the Saints and
Matt Bryant’s first missed field goal of the season versus Miami very well may
have cost the Falcons that win as well. Point is, this team is not playing a
full four quarters, despite arguably being the better team in each matchup.
Roddy White and Stephen Jackson injuries hurt, but Matt Ryan has been making do
without them and should be able to do so through this week. Home-field
advantage should be able to give the Falcons’ defense an edge against a
similarly questionable Patriots offense, as well.
Atlanta Falcons: 27-24
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans
Saints (3-0):
What I love
about the Dolphins so far is that they’re a very good 3-0, with two road wins
and two wins against possible playoff teams, and yet they have no standout
players. Cameron Wake is leading a monstrosity of a defensive line, and Ryan
Tannehill has been effective enough to get the job done without any standout
performances on the offensive side of the ball. The problem I have with Miami,
though, is the same: Nothing stands out about this squad, and that’s going to
be an issue heading into the Superdome against a team that’s been terrific
against the pass and features one of the great passing attacks of all time.
Speaking of,
it seems like Drew Brees finally righted the ship, and he did so against what,
supposedly, is a very good secondary in Arizona. His receiving corps is still
questionable, with Kenny Stills, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore all seemingly doing
their best to avoid a stoplight, but Jimmy Graham has been, bar none, the best
offensive player in the game, in my opinion. Pierre Thomas stepped up well last
week, and Darren Sproles seems to be waiting in reserve for when the Saints
really need to use his talent. The Dolphins have been very good through three
games at this point, but there’s just too much going on in New Orleans’ offense
to keep this from being a track meet.
New Orleans Saints: 31-20
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