NFL Predictions - Week 6

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 48-29

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2):

So I was checking the Giants stats earlier and I noticed something: They’ve given up at least 31 points in every game this season. Every. Single. Game. The highest scoring offense of all time (2007 New England Patriots) only averaged about 35 points per game. That’s bad, folks. And it’s not gonna get any better this week. Eli Manning is averaging 2.4 picks per game, and we all know how much Chicago likes to turn those things into points.

This matchup really couldn’t come at a better week for Chicago. The Bears were never serious frontrunners for NFC leader, but still, getting demolished in back-to-back weeks, even by legitimate favorites, is hard to handle. Thankfully, with the emergence of Alshon Jeffery, Jay Cutler has a completely full and capable roster for the first time as a Bear, and he should have fun this week.

Chicago Bears: 34-17

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3):

For those of you who didn’t watch the Bengals-Patriots game last week, it was a monsoon, one of the worst downpours I’ve ever seen. (Why does this keep happening to New England, by the way?) It forced both teams to switch to a ground-and-pound game and despite looking like he was on his way out, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was able to essentially carry the Bengals to a sloppy win. My point is this: The Andy Dalton-AJ Green connection is clearly not getting it done this year, and Cinci needs something to stabilize the offense. Heading into Buffalo, which has had a surprisingly good secondary this season, with an effective run game is what the Bengals will need.

The Bills’ Thad Lewis, from practice squad to starting QB this week, is in for a rough introduction as a Bill. He played decently in his only career start, but going up against one of the NFL’s elite defenses means that this likely won’t be pretty. Look for the Bills’ defense to keep this close, but with the ability to focus primarily on the Bills’ running tandem, Cinci’s defense should be too much to handle this week.

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-17

 

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2):

Megatron is day-to-day again, and we all saw how well that worked out for Detroit in Green Bay, and Cleveland hosts a much better defense with a secondary that will likely completely eliminate any shot at the vertical game Detroit has. However, Detroit’s defense has played surprisingly well this season, limiting Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps to one big play on the week, which prevented a blowout from becoming a slaughter.

Cleveland likely took a step backwards with the reintroduction of Brandon Weeden, but even so, Weeden was able to make the plays necessary to win last Thursday against Buffalo. Willis McGahee wasn’t the back he was a few years ago, but he still has talent and was clearly good enough to reach Trent Richardson’s YPC average in a matter of weeks. That said, the Browns’ offensive line is atrocious and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to stop Ndamukong Suh and Co. at all this week. That’d be trouble enough for an elite quarterback, let alone a middling sophomore one with a questionable WR corps. The Lions may struggle without Calvin Johnson, but should be able to pull off the win either way.

Detroit Lions: 24-20

 

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0):

I’m a big fan of Terrelle Pryor (the athlete, not the person), but I wanna be clear: He hasn’t faced a serious defense yet. Travelling to Arrowhead without your best back in the lineup against the league’s best defense is not the best first test, either. However, Oakland’s defense has been solid so far this season and against an offense that focuses simply on efficiency, it should be enough to keep this game close.

After perfection for three weeks, Alex Smith has now thrown three interceptions in his last two games. While, granted, the Chiefs won both games going away, it does create a little cause for concern, especially given the fact that his wide receiver corps has been virtually nonexistent since the Eagles game a few weeks ago. However, while Pryor and the Raiders offense look like they have a pretty high ceiling, they haven’t reached it yet, and KC should be able to handle this game in relatively easy fashion.

Kansas City Chiefs: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3):

What a mess of a game. The Panthers come in with one of the NFL’s best defenses, one of the best rushing attacks … and one of the worst records. DeAngelo Williams has proven he’s still a solid runner, and Cam Newton is still able to cover ground fairly easily, but with an aging Steve Smith and absolutely no WR depth, the Panthers have been incapable of putting up enough points to win at all this season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has even less. A porous defense, mixed with a terrible quarterback situation, means that Adrian Peterson will be the lone bright spot of this team for at least the next couple of weeks – and then only if Josh Freeman pans out. Matt Cassel, however, looked good enough in the Vikings win over Pittsburgh, and with the home crowd edge, he should be able to make enough plays to give Peterson some running room and take this game.

Minnesota Vikings: 23-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2):

Well, the fun has stopped in Pittsburgh. I’ve never been a big fan of telling players they can no longer do what’s necessary to enjoy themselves, and banning ping-pong and pool from the locker room really doesn’t strike me as a good solution. However, LeVeon Bell looked solid in his debut and Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown have developed a good chemistry, which means that this team should be able to start putting up points soon.

They’re gonna need it, because Bilal Powell has been averaging over 100 yards per game since Chris Ivory got hurt, and Geno Smith has looked markedly better in each game, making zero major mistakes in the win over the Falcons on Monday. And I know I mentioned Pittsburgh’s sense of desperation before, but there’s a reason that team has been in playoff contention for so many years. Now with what should be a fully functional offense, coming off the bye week, the Steelers should have enough pieces to take their first win in a slugfest.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4):

So you’d think with Mike Vick out, Chip Kelly’s offense would be in trouble. But then you’d think wrong, because Nick Foles simply stepped up and resumed carving up the Giants where Vick left off. The defense is worrisome, though. As bad as the Giants are, the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers managed to put up phenomenal stat lines. On top of that, Philly will face Doug Martin this week, who, despite his team’s poor performance, has still managed to perform better than average.

The Bucs are a mess right now. I’ve picked them every week, and three out of the four weeks, with a minute to go, it looked like my pick was right. The inability to close out games is more than just on the players – it’s happened on both sides of the ball – and that has to be fixed. Additionally, the melodrama of Josh Freeman’s departure has only made what once had the looks of a playoff team look like an episode of Hard Knocks.  Mike Glennon may have some talent, but he has three available weapons, and one of them will likely disappear this week.

Philadelphia Eagles: 24-23

 

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2):

I think it’s a little strange how, despite nearly blowing Detroit out at home, the Packers’ offense managed to have a remarkably pedestrian game, scoring just one touchdown on the afternoon. Aaron Rodgers is still one of the league’s best, but either Greg Jennings’ departure has affected the team’s depth more than it’s let on, or receivers like Jordy Nelson and James Jones just aren’t as good when pressure falls on them. Facing off against a Ravens team that actually has a sturdy run defense, and this Packers squad will be forced back into its one-dimensional role from a season ago, only without the team’s best playmaker.

I still don’t get what Baltimore is trying to do on offense. Ray Rice saw a much heavier load last week against Miami (27 carries, almost matching Joe Flacco’s 32 passes), but that’s the first time this season we’ve seen it. Rice didn’t even manage 3 yards per carry, but the fact that the Ravens are willing to push him means that Green Bay can’t simply expect another heavy dose of Joe Flacco. The Ravens should walk out of this one with the better-looking offense at day’s end.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-21

 

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3):

So the Rams have recovered, right? Doubtful. The Jaguars are historically bad, and even with that measurement, St. Louis never really completely put Jacksonville away. Sam Bradford looked much better than he has in recent weeks, spreading the ball all over the field, and Zac Stacy actually looked capable of carrying the ball. But even with the return of Justin Blackmon, the Rams defense doesn’t have an excuse for giving up nearly 300 yards to the Jaguars at home.

Houston has had a ridiculously tough last three weeks to be fair, but more pressing are the concerns about Matt Schaub. The four pick-sixes for TD story, in my opinion, is a little overhyped, but it is something to take not of. Schaub isn’t just making mistakes by throwing INTs. A lot of quarterbacks are throwing way more. It’s where he’s throwing them, such as hitting Richard Sherman in stride and following suit with Tramaine Brock a week later, that is worrisome. Schaub is clearly affected by those passes, and if the Texans are going to turn things around, he needs a soft opponent to help him do so. Enter St. Louis.

Houston Texans: 30-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0):

This one isn’t going to be pretty. The Jaguars are four-touchdown underdogs, and while I think they may cover the spread thanks to Blackmon’s return, I can’t even say that with confidence. That’s ridiculous.

Denver Broncos: 41-17

 

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1):

Even with the loss of Jake Locker, the Titans were able to keep things close and, until a couple of late mistakes by Ryan Fitzpatrick, were even in position to knock off the undefeated Chiefs. They were obviously unsuccessful, but the Titans have managed to pass test after test this season with a young, athletic defense and a receiving corps that is more than making up for Chris Johnson and the O-line’s lack of ability to run the ball.

The problem is, playing in Qwest field isn’t so much a test as it is a gauntlet. The Seahawks are a different beast when they’re at home, and if the Titans are going to shock the Hawks here, they’ll need to shut down an increasingly mobile Russell Wilson, an electrified Marshawn Lynch and be able to break through the NFL’s second-best defense. It just won’t happen.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-14

 

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1):

I finally found a flaw with this team: the running game. Despite giving Pierre Thomas the bulk of the workload in two of the three weeks that Mark Ingram has missed, the Saints are still completely incapable of moving the ball on the ground. That’s been mitigated by Jimmy Graham’s performance and Darren Sproles and Thomas alternately having breakout games in receptions, but going up against a secondary that has been remarkably good at times this season means the Saints will likely have to find some way to move the ball on the ground to win this one.

The Patriots, meanwhile, should be getting Rob Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley back this week, which means that one of the league’s best secondaries should get its first true test of the season. Like Graham, Gronk cannot be matched up on by anyone, and his run-blocking should be able to open holes for Ridley that simply haven’t existed so far this season. If Gronk IS able to suit up—still listed as day-to-day – the Patriots should be able to knock off the undefeated Saints.

New England Patriots: 31-27

 

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2):

Every time I start to think the Cardinals might be legitimate contenders, I check out what they’ve done and realize there’s no body of work there. Wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay are woefully unimpressive and the loss to St. Louis looks worse and worse by the week. Andre Ellington is starting to look like a legitimate running threat, but Bruce Arians’ refusal to use him full time still hinders the Cardinals’ ground game.

San Francisco, meanwhile, continues to look better and better, Colin Kaepernick especially. The Niners have managed to get the read option working to some degree over the past two weeks, and if Arizona is going to win, the defense will have to shut down Kaep and Gore completely, because it’s unlikely the Niners will try to win it through the air, with Patrick Peterson blanketing Anquan Boldin all night. Unfortunately for Arizona, that seems like it’s going to be too tough a task to handle.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

 

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3):

This game might actually break the Jones-a-tron, which would be some terrific irony. Washington’s secondary is simply horrific, but RGIII is coming off a bye week that should have given him enough time to mentally set himself for a very good pass rush.

The Cowboys meanwhile, can’t feel bad about their loss last week. Tony Romo went toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning for 60 minutes and made the same number of mistakes; his just came at the wrong time. That defense, however, will have to fix a lot of things this week in order to slow down an almost equally-impressive passing attack from RGIII. Fortunately, the Redskin defense is nothing like the Broncos’, and it should show this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 34-24

 

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3):

Despite losing Ahmad Bradhsaw for the season and what appears to be Reggie Wayne starting to show his age, the Colts were able to light up one of the league’s best defenses last week, even with Andrew Luck still struggling to find the 300-yard mark. The Colts were gashed at will by Seattle’s run game, however, and given that no team has been able to slow down Philip Rivers’ aerial assault thus far, Indy will need to fix that this week in order to have a chance in San Diego.

The Chargers have had some trouble playing a full 60 minutes this year, blowing a huge lead against Houston then having to make late comebacks against both Dallas and Oakland. However, they also have something that most Indianapolis opponents haven’t: a passing game. In the Colts’ only true passing test of the season, against Miami in Week 2, they fell behind early and were unable to fight back. Rivers will only be an upgrade, and he has the added use of his backs as weapons, which Miami never showed. Look for the Chargers to pull off a high-scoring upset here.

San Diego Chargers: 34-30