NFL Predictions - Week 7

I think we’re at about the point in the season where breaking down an individual team every week is kind of pointless, so I’ll just be doing an analysis of each game from this point on.

Last Week: 12-3

Overall: 60-32-0

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4):

The Bucs are just crumbling, which is a shame because there’s plenty of talent on this roster. Just look at what they did in the first couple of weeks. Tampa Bay still has a strong secondary, Mike Glennon can clearly throw the ball, and Doug Martin is a still a top NFL running back, but the team is a mess, and it’s not going to get better any time soon. Atlanta’s had a bye week to prepare and deal with the loss of Julio Jones, and even with Stephen Jackson out of the lineup yet again, Matt Ryan is simply too talented to lose at home to a team like this.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-23

 

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2):

Cincinnati is so bipolar it hurts to watch. Shut down the Patriots offense one week, be incapable of handling Thad Lewis the next. The Bengals have to like their matchup going into this week, though. Detroit’s defense is far from terrible, but it gives up huge numbers to running backs and there’s simply no one in the Lions’ secondary that can handle AJ Green. Problem is, Detroit’s offense should be back to full strength for the first time since Week 2. As good as the Bengals’ secondary is, it’s incredibly hard to contain Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the slew of tight ends at Matt Stafford’s disposal.

Detroit Lions: 27-20

 

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2):

For all the Bills’ misfortune this year, they still seem to be holding it together enough to play teams competitively. A patchwork secondary may not be one of the league’s best defenders, but they make play after play to keep the Bills offense in it, and Thad Lewis was able to shred a good Bengals secondary in the fourth quarter last week. The Dolphins are hosting the Bills off a bye week, however, which means Ryan Tannehill, one of the league’s better decision-makers has had plenty of time to work through this secondary, and the Dolphins have to have planned for a way to get Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas better touches this week. Buffalo should be able to put up enough points to keep it close again, but this should go the Dolphins’ way.

Miami Dolphins: 23-20

 

New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3):

Call me crazy, but I don’t think this game will be close. Bill Belichick is the master at gameplanning, and he’s already seen what the Jets have to throw at him this season. Rob Gronkowski is back, so even with the absence of Danny Amendola, the Jets will have a hard time slowing down the Pats passing attack. Additionally, Gronk’s blocking means bigger holes for Stevan Ridley. Geno Smith is showing flashes of talent, and New England’s defense has been getting destroyed by injury (Jerod Mayo is now out for the season), but New England has managed to find ways to work through that for years. It won’t stop them now.

New England Patriots: 31-13

 

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3):

As lopsided as a lot of these matchups have been lately, we’ve managed to get a shootout almost every week, and here’s yours for Week 7. We all know the Eagles can stop next to nothing, and with the rise of Terrence Williams, the Cowboys have four legitimate WR threats, so even with the absence of DeMarco Murray, Dallas should be near unstoppable this week. Nick Foles has been phenomenal in six quarters for Philadelphia and Lesean McCoy is among the league’s elite running backs, but I don’t see Foles playing mistake-free enough to keep up with Tony Romo.

Dallas Cowboys: 34-28

 

Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Redskins (1-4):

RGIII has looked progressively better on the ground every week, but he’s still struggling to put his passes where they need to go, and no one is better at capitalizing off QB errors than the Bears defense. Additionally, with the Redskins’ atrocious secondary, Jay Cutler will likely keep up his torrid start, and Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery should both be in line for incredible numbers this week.  Homefield advantage and a healthy Alfred Morris should help keep things more balanced, but this will go to Chicago.

Chicago Bears: 31-17

 

St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3):

St. Louis has this mantra right now that consists of “2-0.” I don’t really get that, since they’ve beaten the Jaguars and a reeling Texans team, but I assume it’s to take the players’ minds off the fact that they were outscored by roughly 8 touchdowns in the two weeks prior. But that kind of stuff doesn’t go away. Carolina has quietly put together one of the league’s elite defenses, and it runs the ball better than nearly every team in the league, something St. Louis can’t stop at all. If Cam Newton can find some measure of performance similar to last year, it’ll be difficult for the Rams to even keep this close.

Carolina Panthers: 23-13

 

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6):

The addition of Justin Blackmon doesn’t make the Jaguars are a good team, but it definitely makes things better for Chad Henne. Although Cecil Shorts will likely go, he’ll be limited, but it should be enough to take a little heat off Blackmon against a middling Chargers pass defense. But the Jaguars defense simply isn’t going to be able to handle Philip Rivers’ passing attack. If Rivers can keep from turning the ball over, the Chargers have too many weapons and too many options to get them the ball for Jacksonville to handle.

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

 

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3):

The Niners have been phenomenal the last few weeks, and it only looks to get better; however, the Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week. Though it’s unlikely he’s 100 percent, what he gives the Titans is an efficient, mistake-free attack that Ryan Fitzpatrick simply couldn’t provide. That offense still has plenty of problems (Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt), but the defense has improved substantially this year, to the point where it played well IN Seattle, which few teams do. Look for the Titans to pull off a mild upset heading into the bye week.

Tennessee Titans: 20-17

 

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2):

The Browns couldn’t have headed into Lambeau at a better time. The Packers’ receiving corps has been gouged, and Cleveland is a solid run stopper, while Brandon Weeden will face a defense that simply cannot force turnovers. Cleveland’s run game seems to have fallen by the wayside, but Jordan Cameron’s phenomenal matchup, along with Josh Gordon’s all-around awesomeness, mean that the Browns should be able to put up points this week. That said, this is Aaron Rodgers at home, and even missing his second and third receiving options, Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers: 31-24

 

Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0):

OK, so we can put that start-bench argument to rest for Matt Schaub, but since he’s injured, that doesn’t really matter. Case Keenum clearly has something that Gary Kubiak wants to try, but both sides of this Texans team have just come unraveled, and going up against the league’s best defenses and most efficient offenses is not a recipe that will allow Houston to solve its woes.

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-17

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4):

This rivalry doesn’t have quite the luster it once did, when the teams are a combined 4-7. The Ravens have looked much improved in recent weeks, but the Steelers looked like a wholly different team a week ago at New York. Le’Veon Bell provides a spark on the ground that the Steelers haven’t had in years, and Ben Roethlisberger has been able to use that to pick apart defenses the last two weeks. As for the Ravens, if they can’t find a running game, this will not be close. The Steelers defense, though it’s dropped off this year, still has a terrific pass defense, and asking Joe Flacco to win this game is simply not an option.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 16-13

 

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2):

Peyton Manning’s homecoming should be a phenomenal game. Both teams are the class of the AFC, and as Jacksonville and Dallas have shown in recent weeks, the Broncos have holes that can be exploited. Von Miller returns this week, which should help the Broncos shore up an already good run defense and should help pressure quarterbacks enough to improve their pass defense in the coming weeks. That said, there’s no way the Colts receivers drop as many passes as they did a week ago in San Diego. Andrew Luck doesn’t have the weapons that Manning has at his disposal, but he should do enough to keep it close. However, there’s too much going in Manning’s direction this week, and the Broncos should be able to squeak by.

Denver Broncos: 35-31

 

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6):

The Giants obviously would’ve preferred to pull off a win, but for the first time this year, they weren’t blown out by Chicago, which has to be seen as a step forward. Brandon Jacobs imposed his will on the Bears defense, and the Vikings are a much, much worse team. Josh Freeman will be starting for the Vikings this week, and there’s no way he can have the playbook completely solved. He spreads the field, though, making it easier for Adrian Peterson to do his job; however, that won’t be enough to keep up with New York this week. Giants will finally (after six losses) earn their first win.

New York Giants: 31-27