NFL Predictions - Week 15

Last Week: 13-3

Overall: 132-75-1

 

Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10):

Washington can officially be classified as a dumpster fire now. Whether you believe the Shanahanigans going on are an attempt to save Mike’s job or actually a benevolent approach to preserve the future potential of this team, the current result is the same: This team’s season is over. Kirk Cousins will get the start, and he may even perform respectably in Griffin’s stead, but there’s little room for optimism in a win for this team. As bad as the Falcons have been this year – injury bug sucks when you have no depth – even a great showing by Cousins won’t hide the fact that the Skins simply can’t play defense. With the Falcons’ offense finally starting to heal up, look for Atlanta to put up numbers Washington simply can’t keep up with.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

 

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Brown (4-9):

This matchup is odd. Cleveland is a bit bipolar, getting blown out against Detroit, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the last two months, while losing squeakers against Kansas City, Jacksonville and New England. These Browns match up extremely well against a run defense that couldn’t stop a high school attack, and Josh Gordon is more than enough to shred any secondary at this point. However, what used to be a solid Browns defense simply hasn’t shown up since a Week 9 win against Baltimore. This game will come down to whether the Browns can force enough plays on defense to allow their offense to scrape a couple touchdowns together. With Jay Cutler’s return, and likely need to shake off the rust, it should be able to do exactly that.

Cleveland Browns: 27-24

 

Houston Texans (2-11) at Indianapolis Colts (8-5):

I don’t have exact numbers for this, but it seems that every time a talented, but winless, team loses its head coach, it tends to catch fire over the remaining weeks of the season, and Houston is nothing if not talented. With depth at almost every skill position on offense, Houston should have no problem’s scoring against an injury-ravaged Colts defense. However, the Andrew Luck factor against a terribly weakened Houston defense is likely going to be too great to overcome this week. TY Hilton destroyed the Texans defense last time these two teams met, and expect a similar result this time.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-20

 

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6):

The loss of Gronkowski is a devastating blow to the Patriots’ title hopes to be sure, and the change on Vegas odds reflects that (the spread was only 2.5 in favor of New England at the time of this). However, after Gronk went down Sunday, the Patriots figured out how to get its offense running through Shane Vereen, and with the re-emergence of Julian Edelman and LeGarette Blount, Tom Brady should have enough targets to prevent another shaky start this week. Miami, on the other side, is scoring points in bunches. Daniel Thomas came back from injury and promptly gashed the Steelers’ run D, while Mike Wallace and Charles Clay are starting expose opposing secondaries. The problem here is that Bill Belichick knows the Dolphins as well as anyone, and with a chance to seal the division on the line, it’s hard to see Joe Philbin outcoaching Belichick this week.

New England Patriots: 27-24

 

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1):

Obviously, no Adrian Peterson and a doubtful Toby Gerhart will have a huge impact on this Minnesota offense. However, with Matt Cassel under center, the Vikings have been able to move the ball consistently and make use of rookie weapon Cordarelle Patterson, something Minnesota will surely try to use much more this week to mask the loss of AD, and against a Philly defense that’s stout against the run but incredibly susceptible to the pass, it’s a recipe that could give the Eagles fits this week. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings seem to have quietly improved, holding the Bears to 20 points two weeks ago, then holding the Ravens to seven points in the first 57:55 of last week’s game. However, what Minnesota has been susceptible to is the big play, giving up two huge Alshon Jeffery TDs versus Chicago and too many plays to count at Baltimore. Philadelphia feasts on the big play, and Minnesota will have to find ways to cut those down if it wants a chance this game.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-24

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8):

That the Giants have shown marked improvement in the second half of the season is something that’s hard to deny, but despite shaking off an 0-6 start, New York simply hasn’t been able to string together any sort of consistency, and that’s a weakness that’s going to exposed this week against the NFL’s model of consistency. The Seahawks defense has been ferocious these last few weeks and, hiccup at San Francisco aside, the offense has been nearly as good. The return of Andre Brown has allowed New York more flexibility on offense, but it won’t be enough to cut through Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks: 21-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):

One of the hottest teams in the NFL the last month, the Buccaneers (you heard me) has been absolute monsters at home, beating a solid Miami team and destroying Atlanta and Buffalo. The next-man-up philosophy at running back has paid dividends, with Bobby Rainey seamlessly replacing Mike James a month ago, and Mike Glennon continues to show improvement, transitioning from a QB who could only use Vincent Jackson as a safety blanket, to one who’s been spreading the field evenly over the Bucs’ tear. However, as a trip to Carolina showed, this team isn’t set up yet to deal with the NFL’s top tier, which San Francisco belongs to. A middling run defense, coupled with a pretty bad pass defense, going up against Frank Gore and a Kaep attack who finally has all his weapons healthy, is a hard team to beat.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Buffalo Bills (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9):

Hilariously, the once-moribund Jaguars hold the longest win streak in the AFC, and no two 4-9 teams could ever look more different. Plagued by injuries, the Buffalo Bills just haven’t been able to find a rhythm this season, while the Jaguars under Chad Henne have finally managed to find a balanced attack, while the defense, still not good, has managed to stop looking dreadful, at least. Buffalo, for its part, now has a fully functional running game, which should keep the Bills alive this week, but with a defense that can only succeed by forcing turnovers, it’s unlikely the Bills will be able to create enough separation to win this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-20

 

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9):

The Chiefs defense woke up last week in a big way. A unit that had been ravaged in recent weeks by Denver and San Diego managed to thoroughly overwhelm Washington – who is struggling, granted – in almost every facet possible. Traveling to Oakland will be a slightly stiffer test, but Matt McGloin is not nearly the dynamic QB that Terrelle Pryor is, and the absence of Denarius Moore will continue to weaken this squad. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles should be nearly unstoppable this week against a middle-of-the-road defense that simply won’t be able to make the big plays necessary to slow the Chiefs down.

Kansas City Chiefs: 23-13

 

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4):

This is gonna get ugly. The Jets continue to hang around in the wildcard talk, but New York has been incapable of putting together a halfway decent performance on the road this year, and against a ferocious Panthers defense that’s coming off its worst loss of the season, I don’t see things looking up for New York. Look for the Panthers secondary and the Cam Newton passing attack to light up the scoreboard this week.

Carolina Panthers: 37-20

 

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6):

Somehow, the Packers are still in the playoff discussion, despite Aaron Rodgers’ return being pushed back week by week. However, a 1-4-1 record without him (and that win coming at home against the Falcons) don’t exactly speak wonders for Green Bay’s ability to keep up with Dallas this week. The Cowboys’ defense is atrocious, nearly as bad as the Saints were last year, but Matt Flynn simply has not been able to kickstart this offense. With Eddie Lacy at best a shadow of himself this week, even Dallas shouldn’t have too much trouble slowing down the Packers.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-21

 

Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8):

What’s been a hallmark under Mike Munchak’s tenure at Tennessee is that the Titans can beat the bad teams, can run with the good teams and they get hammered by the great teams. Arizona isn’t a great team, but it’s more than good, with a passing attack that’s been unstoppable the last few weeks and a defense that, on paper, looks as good as any in the league right now. Home-field advantage, an inability by the Cardinals to guard the tight end, and a mistake-free Ryan Fitzpatrick could give the Titans a chance to pull off the upset this week, but given this team’s inability to close out the fourth quarter, it’s unlikely.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-20

 

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8):

The Rams have, at times, looked like they could beat anyone in the NFL, and at other times have simply not shown up to the field. The emergence of Zac Stacy and Tavon Austin have more than made up for the loss of Sam Bradford earlier in the season, but the offense as a whole just has not been consistent this year. Additionally, the Rams’ young playmakers won’t have the experience to shake off the kinds of blitzes and packages Rob Ryan’s defense will have prepared heading into this week, and a Drew Brees-led offense that carved up one of the NFL’s best defenses last week will likely have no trouble going through a much weaker Rams defense.

New Orleans Saints: 34-24

 

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8):

Last year, the Bengals only had one real offensive threat: Throw it to AJ Green. This year, however, Andy Dalton’s steady improvement, combined with the dynamic play of Giovani Bernard and the rest of the Bengals’ receiving corps, has allowed Cinci to hang points on just about everyone (scoring 40+ in three of their last four wins), while a defense that’s suffered a couple of serious setbacks continues to shut down opponents (giving up 20 or fewer in five of its last games). Combine the two, and you have a Cincinnati team that has quietly moved into the NFL’s elite class, no small feat given the ferocity of the rivalries in this division. However, it’s that rivalry that could be a problem this week. Pittsburgh is on another two-game slump coming off a game that it had no right to win but really should have. The Steelers offense has been nearly unstoppable lately; it’s ironically the aging defense that has slowed this Steelers squad down. However, another primetime slot against a division rival with the remainder of its playoff hopes on the line should give Mike Tomlin all he needs to get this squad fired up this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6):

Even though it seems like the Lions have stumbled their way into the class of the NFC North, somehow Detroit hasn’t managed to close out the division. A tiebreaker over Chicago and a half-game separate Detroit from first and third (and no playoffs). The blizzard in Philadelphia was somewhat of a fluke, something a dome team isn’t going to handle as well as a northern, outdoor team like Philly, especially with one of its best playmakers sidelined. Meanwhile, the Ravens have quietly assumed control of the AFC’s wild card race, winning four of five. The run game is still virtually nonexistent, but Joe Flacco and the defense have made the plays necessary to keep this team alive. The Lions’ offense has more than enough talent to blow the Ravens defense out of the water, and thanks to an offensive line that simply can’t create holes for Ray Rice, Detroit should easily be able to sit back and force the Ravens into a one-dimensional, passing attack. That said, this is a Lions team that’s struggled with discipline all season long and fails to get going until it absolutely needs to. The Lions should pull out the must-win this week, but look for Baltimore to keep it close.

Detroit Lions: 30-27