Week 11 NFL Predictions

Talk about a weekend of upsets. The Raiders started it off by handling the reeling Chargers at home, and it continued straight through Sunday night, where the supposedly reeling Patriots crushed the Jets at home. And few suffered from it more than my picks did. Aside from learning that not even guarantees are certain (paging Baltimore, anyone home?), Week 10 managed to show a few things. Green Bay is, barring a potential slipup in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, well on its way to an undefeated season. San Francisco is the NFL’s last best hope to stopping back-to-back championships for the Pack. Jim Schwartz’ purposeful lack of discipline is biting him yet again. Denver may well be in playoff range, and Baltimore is redefining “playing down to your opponent’s level.” But what might be most shocking is just how good Houston, and yet how bad they might be. Matt Schaub is officially out for the season, and what may be the NFL’s hottest team is now the AFC’s No. 1 team without three of its four best players. The parity in the NFL this year refuses to completely go away, but maybe Week 11 will help sort a few more things out. Here’s my picks:

Last Week: 6-10

Overall: 69-43

New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5):

It’s funny how fast a team can go from supposedly locking up its division to be counted out of the playoff race. The Jets did just that last week, and what we thought was an offense that was finally meshing just in time to take control of the AFC East was easily shut down by the league’s worst defense. New York’s defense is still as solid as ever, but the Band-aids have been ripped away from the kinks in the Jets’ offense and the fractures still haven’t healed. Denver, meanwhile, is enjoying the exact opposite trend. Counted out of the playoff race less than two weeks ago, the Broncos have been the benefactors of an entire division reeling and are now just a game out of first. John Fox finally wised up and let Tebow do Tebow’s thing (run the ball, win games, polarize America, etc.) and the Broncos have a chance for their first statement win (and home win) of the Tebow era.

Denver Broncos: 21-17

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4):

In the past four games, the Titans have gone from being demolished by the Texans on their own field to demolishing Cam Newton and the Panthers on their home field. True, Chris Johnson seems to have finally woken up, but that doesn’t explain how a defense that seemed to be on the edge of falling apart managed to shut down the league’s most dynamic rookie. Meanwhile, Atlanta, who was previously a lockdown choice at home, has dropped 3-of-5, including the overtime loss to New Orleans last week. It doesn’t matter the outcome, Mike Smith made the right call. He had the home-field advantage, a good quarterback and would have been relying on a sieve of a defense had he punted. It just didn’t work. He won’t need to make that call this week, though. Unless Johnson goes for 200, the Titans are not going to hand Atlanta its second home loss in as many weeks.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3):

This isn’t the way it was supposed to work for Newton. The Panthers were supposed to come off a bye full of energy, ready to whip up on the Titans before hitting the meat of their schedule. Now, they’re the whipping boys, and they’re walking into Ford Field to play a team that looks more ready to murder the opposing team than take the field against it. Speaking of which, Schwartz had this issue in Tennessee. Both he and former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher bred that kind of living-on-the-edge attitude (see Cortland Finnegan) on the defense, and while it took Tennessee to a 13-3 record in ’08, it also resulted in a complete collapse against the Steelers in the playoffs. Schwartz seemed to have hit that same road block against Chicago last week. For Matt Stafford’s part, he should be suspended. He instigated the brawl with a viciously cheap move and deserved his payback (although I’m not condoning that either. But it shouldn’t have been a surprise). If Detroit has any hopes of surviving a nuclear meltdown, Schwartz better have the off-field issues settled before Sunday.

Detroit Lions: 31-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6):

Jacksonville looks like a team that’s shocked to have won three games, while Cleveland is doing its best to show it too can have a shot at Andrew Luck if it wants. Both sides feature anemic offenses, although both run games have some upside. However, I would not advise keeping the TV on CBS if this is your regional game.

Cleveland Browns: 17-12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (9-0):

Sometimes good teams get blown out. They’re on the road, they have a bad game, and it’s really just a one-time thing. Good teams do not get blown out twice in one season, with the second one coming at home. The playing ability of the Bucs has managed to disappear in less than a year’s time, but a lot of this is the coaching. Given the offensive weapon LeGarette Blount is, the fact that he’s averaging nowhere near 20 carries per game is mind boggling. For instance, Raheem Morris should just look at Green Bay. That’s an offense in sync. He should get a good, long look this weekend.

Green Bay Packers: 34-17

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7):

Buffalo didn’t exactly pass its two-week test (OK, two blowouts is a failure), but strangely enough, it’s still very much alive in the wild-card chase. Unfortunately, now the Bills have to deal with a resurgent Miami team being led by former castoff Reggie Bush. (The Dolphins have a way with washed-up running backs, don’t they?) Buffalo doesn’t seem like the type of team to take two beatings in a row while lying down, but it’s hard to see any fire in this team right now. Miami actually seems like it’s playing with a purpose and finally figured out the secret to winning at home, which is gonna make Buffalo’s task extremely difficult this week.

Miami Dolphins: 27-17

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7):

Carson Palmer couldn’t have timed his comeback any better, hitting his stride just as the rest of the AFC West is falling down around him. The Vikings…well, Christian Ponder looks good for next year at least. Adrian Peterson should have a fun time gashing the Raiders porous run D, but the Vikings just have too little on pass coverage to slow down Carson Palmer at this point.

Oakland Raiders: 24-20

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6):

I’m not picking the Skins anymore. They just embarrass me.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-14

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3):

Considering the defenses Andy Dalton faces in the AFC North, he’s doing incredibly well for being tossed in the fire. (Get it, ‘cause he’s a redhead? No? OK…) Unfortunately for the Bengals, dynasties usually don’t change overnight, and that includes taking complete control of a division after almost a decade of ineptitude. And can Baltimore please make up its mind? The Ravens are causing me and a lot of other “experts” a ton of headaches with their beat-down-the-good-guy-lose-to-the-bad-guy act. Lucky for them, that bad loss already came and Cincinnati is good right now, so all the right Ravens players should show up. Should.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-23

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-7):

Apparently, the Hawks found a game plan. Give the ball to Marshawn Lynch. A lot. With Lynch back in the lineup, Seattle managed to completely control Baltimore last week. Of course, this is the same team that almost beat Atlanta in Atlanta, but then lost to Cleveland 6-3. Meanwhile, if a 2-7 team can be considered hot, the Rams are just that. Cleveland held the Rams to only 13 last week, which is what the Browns do, but the Rams’ offense is looking much improved in recent weeks. Sam Bradford is starting to hit his passes, and Stephen Jackson has channeled his old self. Unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are improving just a little bit fast at this point.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-16

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1):

Guess which division has the best record over the last two weeks? Yup, it’s the NFC West, just like we all would’ve predicted. Everyone’s winning over there right now, but too bad that has to come to an end. Arizona got lucky to play the floundering Eagles last week, but the 49ers won’t be the same story. Alex Smith looks better by the game, and the Niners proved that even if Frank Gore goes down, they still have plenty of weapons. San Francisco should just about wrap up the division this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-16

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3):

I know December is the Chargers’ month, but I did not see this free fall coming. Philip Rivers is looking like the most dangerous (in masochistic terms) quarterback in football right now, and Ryan Mathews is coming off an injury at the wrong time. The Bears defense has gelled, their offensive line has figured out how to block, and Devin Hester is … well, Devin Hester. Chicago has a huge risk of a letdown after how emotional their game with Detroit got last week, but it shouldn’t be too hard to overcome against the reeling Chargers.

Chicago Bears: 27-21

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3):

I’m gonna stop picking the Eagles too. It’s pointless to explain the abilities of this team, because at the end of the day, it simply can’t win. Meanwhile, even in after a loss, people spend the week talking about how good Eli Manning’s comeback abilities are. Doesn’t bode well for the Eagles.

New York Giants: 28-14

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3):

The Chiefs stumbled their way through the easiest part of their schedule, finishing at a resounding 0-2 for the last two weeks, and now they face a reinvigorated Patriots team that lost for the first time in Foxborough, where they’re coming off their first home loss in years. The Chiefs may keep it a battle, if they can get the passing game going, especially against the league’s worst defense, but it’s going to be too much for him to handle alone.

New England Patriots: 34-24

Week 10 NFL Predictions

I dislike Thursday night games. Not for any particular reason, other than it means I can’t be lazy about my writing, and I just really don’t like having to be un-lazy. But it couldn’t come at a better week. I need to forget about last week and my picks. That was just a painful performance (though SI’s Peter King went 5-9, so it could be a lot worse).

I’m not going to do a midseason award section, but since every team has officially reached its midway point, some players need to get some recognition for what they’ve done. Aaron Rodgers is a clear runaway for MVP, but he has competition from both Drew Brees and Tom Brady (though that’s quickly flagging) for possibly the best season by a QB in NFL history. Lesean McCoy has quietly taken control of the league and Matt Forte is about 60 percent of the reason the Bears are still in playoff contention. Calvin Johnson is proving everyone just how elite he is, and Steve Smith’s quiet resurgence might just be the best story no one’s heard about. DeMarcus Ware is playing like a man possessed and Patrick Willis has seems to multiply by 11 every time the 49ers’ defense takes the field.

All right, onto Week 10:

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 64-33

Oakland Raiders (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-4):

I wanna say the AFC West is a mess, but that’s not true. The entire AFC is a mess. Both Oakland and Kansas City had a shot to take control in the division, and neither one took advantage, losing to the two worst teams in the AFC, and now one of those teams, Denver, is firmly back in the West’s division race. Carson Palmer is being ripped in the media enough, but – and granted, I didn’t actually get to see the game – he threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns in his first start after coming straight out of retirement. That seems pretty effective to me. It’s not like Palmer had six months to build a rapport with these receivers. That said, what are the odds that Philip Rivers throws away another game in the fourth? … OK, maybe not too low, but San Diego isn’t going to lose three in a row, especially at home, especially to a division rival that’s hurting in every department right now. Ryan Mathews is back (again), and San Diego’s a different team with him.

San Diego Chargers: 31-17

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-6):

The Titans haven’t been horrible in their last month of play, but they simply haven’t been quite good enough to win. And to be good enough to win here, they have to shut down one of the most phenomenal rookies we’ve seen in years, after Cam Newton has been given two weeks to expand his playbook knowledge even further. Maybe Tennessee can keep up if Chris Johnson can stay hot for two straight weeks, but we’ve all seen enough of CJ to know that’s not a guarantee.

Carolina Panthers: 27-24

Detroit Lions (6-2) at Chicago Bears (5-3):

The last time these two played, Detroit was on its way to a 5-0 start, and Chicago looked to be out of the wild card race, as well as the divisional one, with its 2-3 start. Winners of three straight and having just shot down the explosive Eagles, the Bears are one game behind the Lions and have an excellent chance to close that gap Sunday. If Philadelphia wasn’t a fluke, and Chicago’s offensive line can actually keep Cutler standing in the pocket, Detroit’s in trouble. The Lions had no answer for Cutler’s passes (but an answer for everything else) in October, and it was a fully healthy and functional Jahvid Best that shredded the Bear defense. Now, Best is questionable, Detroit’s offense as a whole has stagnated, while its opportunistic defense is seeing fewer and fewer opportunities. Chicago’s about to make things interesting in the North.

Chicago Bears: 23-20

New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3):

Atlanta’s followed a path similar to Chicago’s, once left for dead in the NFC South race, and now just a half-game behind, with a chance to take the lead this Sunday. Granted, it was against the hapless Colts, but the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem seems to have finally clicked, Michael Turner just can’t be stopped and the Falcons’ D is starting to return to 2010 form. Plus, Matt Ryan doesn’t like losing in Atlanta. I guess it’s a grudge he bears for getting whipped them game after game in college. The Saints aren’t playing bad football themselves, and statistically, Drew Brees is simply amazing this year. But it’s only Drew Brees. New Orleans has yet to establish a solid running game, with most of its yards out of the backfield coming on Darren Sproles screen passes. Brees will get his 250-300 yards, but the Falcons should have fun forcing a few turnovers this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-24

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2):

Can anyone in the AFC stay consistent this year? As yet, only Cincinnati seems to have avoided falling prey to the AFC-wide trend, with Pittsburgh being the latest victim. A week after thrashing the Patriots, Pittsburgh turned around and gave away the sweep to Baltimore, at home. Roethlisberger didn’t look bad, but the run game has become anemic and the defense seemed to simply be beaten down by the end of the night. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they win games on defense. Andy Dalton has turned several heads (deservedly so) this season, but you can bet Dick LeBeau and Mike Tomlin have had a few choice words to inspire this Steelers defense. Look for Cincinnati to become the next inconsistency victim this year and muddy the AFC picture just a little bit more.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 21-17

St. Louis Rams (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (3-5)

Some 90 percent of the country got to watch either Green Bay-San Diego or New York-New England on Fox last week. I got stuck watching St. Louis-Arizona. And by stuck, I mean I got bored at half-time. Apparently, that’s when things got exciting, but oh well. I don’t regret the decision, and I’m not going to hold out hope this week. Sam Bradford is back, as should be Danario Alexander, so the Rams should stay competitive, but this is Cleveland’s home turf, and the Browns are not a bad team on either side of the ball, simply stuck with injuries and a really good division.

Cleveland Browns: 24-13

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4):

Remember how I said I didn’t see the Bills actually making the playoffs this year? Yeah, that projection started a week early, with the egg lain against the Jets. Dallas isn’t going to make it any easier. Ryan Fitzpatrick struggles against defenses where he’s required to make big plays, and that’s exactly what Ware and Co. are going to make him do. Dallas’ run defense has been porous lately, but look for Rob Ryan to focus on making adjustments to that with Fred Jackson coming into town. DeMarco Murray has been a godsend to the Cowboys with their rash of injuries, and he should play a critical role this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 30-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-9):

This is it. If the Colts are going to have a chance to break their winless streak, it will be Week 10 versus the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Indianapolis just looks worse and worse as the year progresses, and Jacksonville has had a week to get healthy and prepare for this game. Maurice Jones-Drew alone would probably be enough to beat these Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-10

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4):

Tim Tebow just won’t go away. But he also won’t stick around, fluctuating between good and bad so often, he makes Brett Favre’s retirement decisions seem logical. Unfortunately, the Broncos can’t do much more than run the ball with Tebow under center. Willis McGahee had a career day last week (which sucked for this of us who forced to play Knowshon Moreno in fantasy), but don’t expect the Chiefs to allow the same kind of yardage, especially after getting gashed by Reggie Bush and the Dolphins at home last week. The Broncos have a chance to pull even with two other AFC West teams, but this is the closest they’ll get. They simply have too many questions to answer to compete with an improving Chiefs team.

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-14

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (1-7):

Looking back at my picks, it really seems like I have a ton of faith in the Redskins. That’s not true. I just don’t have that much faith in their opposition. The same holds true this week. The Skins are anemic on offense, incapable of finding the end zone, but their defense is just as staunch as it’s been all season. The Dolphins are on a hot streak (I can say that after breaking a seven-game losing streak, right?), but they have plenty to answer for, and seem to have a fondness for losing at home.

Washington Redskins: 17-10

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5):

This shouldn’t be close. Philadelphia played a good game against Chicago but simply couldn’t find a way to win. Arizona played a good game against the Rams, but would have lost were it not for a few key plays. These are two teams going in completely opposite directions.

Philadelphia Eagles: 37-14

Houston Texans (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4):

Tampa Bay, meet the AFC. You both have a lot in common, namely that you can’t decide whether to be really good or really bad this year. Aside from an embarrassment in San Fran earlier in the year, Tampa Bay has been solidly a little bit above average. Josh Freeman just can’t be clutch, and LeGarette Blount is as good as last year, but for some reason, the coaching staff just doesn’t seem to be willing to put its faith in him. Andre Johnson looks iffy for the Texans again, and while Arian Foster has been the answer to everything, Houston’s going to need its offense firing on all cylinders to walk out of Tampa Bay with a win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-20

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-6):

Speaking of teams going in the opposite direction … If it weren’t for Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks might very well be winless right now. Of course, if it weren’t for Ray Rice, Baltimore might be 2-6, rather than 6-2. Baltimore’s got a lot more assets than a running back though, and the Ravens should simply impose their will on Seattle Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-13

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1):

I keep expecting San Francisco to have a let-down game, and I keep being proven wrong. It’s shocking how well Jim Harbaugh has been impressive in turning around the Niners on such short notice, but he’s not doing anything magical. San Fran had a good defense last year, and Frank Gore has always been a great back. Harbaugh focused on those assets, and all of a sudden San Francisco is a contender. New York is in the same boat, with the same tools it’s had for years, but this team is looking as good as it’s been since mid-2008. Eli is the reason “clutch” can finally be associated with the Manning name, and he’s finding near-miraculous ways to do so. If you get a chance to watch this game, don’t change the channel. It should be great from start to finish, but San Fran’s defense should be just enough to hold off New York.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-14

New England Patriots (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3):

It’s not quite time to hit the panic button in New England, but the finger should be on it right now. That absurdly efficient defense we all watch through the first four games of the season is nowhere to be found now, and they’re coming up against the Jets at the wrong time, as New York seems to finally be clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots’ defense is much improved from earlier in the year, but the Brady and Welker show has to reestablish itself to keep New England in contention, which it won’t be doing.

New York Jets: 27-24

Minnesota Vikings (2-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-0):

Christian Ponder performed well against Green Bay in his first official start, but now that the Packers have a bead on him, and the Frozen Tundra as well, things won’t be so easy for Minnesota. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is as hot as any quarterback has ever been in league history. This could ugly fast.

Green Bay Packers: 31-10

Week 9 NFL Predictions

Just when we hit the midway point and think that the season’s settling down, that the bad teams are bad and the good teams are good, we get Tebow, we get Miami, we get Baltimore, but most of all, we get Jackson. St. Louis didn’t just upset the Saints to earn its first win of the season, it absolutely demolished the Saints, thanks in most part to Stephen Jackson, who had close to a career day. Tim Tebow was finally, consistently bad, which means more inconsistency at Denver’s QB position within the next few weeks. The Dolphins can’t decide whether they want Andrew Luck or whether they don’t want their second 1-15 season in the last four years (take the latter, Miami. Seriously, take the latter), and the Ravens are busy personifying just how wacky the AFC Wild Card race could get this year. Halfway through the season, the AFC has no clear-cut division leaders – in fact, every division has less than a half-game difference between first and second – and 12 of the 16 teams are solidly in contention for the playoffs. This week should help clear up that mess just a bit. Let’s get to Week 9:

Last Week: 8-4 (I forgot about the Houston-Jacksonville game. It’s a bit depressing.)

Overall: 56-27

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-3):

How ugly does that Week 2 loss to the Broncos look for Cincinnati now? It’s a smear on an otherwise remarkable season for the Bengals, who are putting away games with incredible defense and great fourth quarters … which is about the opposite of what the Titans have been doing lately. Tennessee’s defense has plummeted, defenses seem to have figured out Matt Hasselbeck, and if Chris Johnson doesn’t get benched soon, Tennessee may be throwing away its playoff hopes simply to get its money’s worth out of him. If Andy Dalton can keep from making big mistakes on the road, Cincinnati should keep its win streak, and its surprising first-place position in the AFC North, alive.

Cincinnati Bengals: 21-13

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2):

It’s been a loooong time since the Bills were the frontrunners in the AFC East race. Granted, I don’t think they’ll follow through this year, they’re still off to what has to be the turnaround of the season. Mark Sanchez is just the kind of quarterback that the Bills’ D thrives on: nearly incapable of big plays and horribly mistake prone. The Jets defense is playing as well as ever, and Darrelle Revis is still the NFL’s premier shutdown corner, but Buffalo’s offense, led by Fred Jackson, is close to unstoppable right now. The Jets should be right where they wanna be going into the second half of the season: .500.

Buffalo Bills: 27-16

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4):

Well, it’s official, Seattle’s offense can only move with Tarvaris Jackson under center. Unfortunately, it still can’t score. Marshawn Lynch is back and, presumably, fully healthy again, but don’t expect him to imitate LeSean McCoy this week. Dallas is coming off a Philadelphia flop, getting embarrassed in just about every possible on primetime. This is a team that could (and probably should) be a legit 6-1 right now, and Seattle simply will not have the manpower to stop what’s likely to be the best-looking offensive performance of the season for Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-21

Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-8):

I’m running out of reasons to write paragraphs about the Colts games. This team hasn’t been competitive since its collapse in Week 4 against Kansas City. On the bright side, they’re giving Peyton Manning a legitimate shot at being the first player in history to win the MVP for a season without taking a snap.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-20

Miami Dolphins (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3):

Oh oh, I know what’s gonna happen here! Miami’s gonna race out to a three-score lead, then redefine epic collapse for the third week in a row. KC is gonna keep rolling into sole ownership of first place in the AFC West, and all will be right with the world … Just kidding. Dolphins have to win one eventually. It’s scary how competitive this team has been in recent weeks, and if Daniel Thomas can come back healthy this week, a run-based Miami offense should present some serious challenges for the Chiefs’ D, which couldn’t seem to get off the field last week without help from Philip Rivers. Miami will try to throw this, but someone will accidentally pick off a Matt Cassel pass in the red zone late in the fourth.

Miami Dolphins: 24-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-3):

All I have for you, Tampa Bay is one word: Ouch. Everything fits for the Bucs right now. Bye week, healthy LeGarette Blount, a Josh Freeman that finally seems to be back to 2010 form. Problem is, the Saints didn’t just lose to the Rams. They were embarrassed, outplayed from start to finish, with absolutely no answer on either side of the ball. Now they’re back home, and coach Sean Payton should be back to playcalling (who knew that would be a big deal against St. Louis?) this week. Plus, Drew Brees isn’t the type to give away two division games in a season to the same team.

New Orleans Saints: 31-27

San Francisco 49ers (6-1) at Washington Redskins (3-4):

San Francisco is rolling. The Niners are easily the hottest team in the NFL, and their D may be the only answer to Aaron Rodgers in the NFC right now. But that’s for later. For right now, we worry about the confidence of going from division bottom-feeder to a five-game win streak and four game division lead. (Did I mention they’ve only played 7 games? That’s really sad.) Washington has yet to win with Josh Beck under center, which begs the question: Why has Shanahan not yanked him yet? My guess: It’s because Beck has shown flashes of ability; he just hasn’t put together a full game. The Skins defense is still one of the stingier teams in the league when it comes to points allowed, and that’s going to play to their advantage against a team that doesn’t turn the ball over. If Washington can stop Frank Gore and force the game onto Alex Smith’s shoulders, it can stop San Fran. But I don’t think that will happen.

Washington Redskins: 16-13

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Houston Texans (5-3):

Aside from a near-blowout loss to Tennessee in Week 4, Cleveland has, at the least, been competitive in every one of its games, its defense making up for Colt McCoy’s lack of fireworks on the offense. Peyton Hillis has been plagued by injuries this year, and the Browns still have no receiving threat. Houston’s pass defense is already good enough without assistance from the other side. Now Arian Foster is in full stride and Matt Schaub is playing as well as he’s played all year. Have fun keeping up, Cleveland.

Houston Texans: 34-17

Denver Broncos (2-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-3):

Oakland couldn’t have timed this bye week any better. Carson Palmer has had two weeks to get used to the offense after that disaster against Kansas City, and now he gets to ease himself back into the league against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Also, Tebow should have fun playing against one of the stingiest secondaries in the league.

Oakland Raiders: 34-17

New York Giants (5-2) at New England Patriots (5-2):

OK, I was wrong about saying that Belichick doesn’t lose after bye weeks. He clearly did. And the league seems to have figured out the conundrum that was Tom Brady-to-Wes Welker. Eli Manning has the Giants offense rolling, as shown by the double-digit comeback he managed to pull off against Miami last week. However, Ahmad Bradshaw is, at the very least, hobbled for the game, and Brandon Jacobs isn’t the same Jacobs we saw dominate the league two years. Plus, the Giants defense isn’t the Steelers defense, and it doesn’t have the advantage of a home turf. New York needs a perfect game out of Eli to pull off the upset, but even that may not be enough if Brady manages to find his groove again.

New England Patriots: 38-28

St. Louis Rams (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6):

This was shaping up to be the pillow fight of the season before St. Louis beat the Saints and Kevin Kolb was knocked out of the matchup. Now the only question is, can home-field advantage and Beanie Wells be enough to stop St. Louis and the (questionable) return of Sam Bradford? Probably. That’s the beauty of parody. Even with a fully healthy offense, St. Louis is not playoff caliber, and these teams are both bad enough that this could go either way, and Arizona needs this win a lot worse than St. Louis right now.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-17

Green Bay Packers (7-0) at San Diego Chargers (4-3):

It’s hard to explain just how much the Chargers needed the win that Rivers fumbled away Monday night. The collapse in New York, followed by that game, have turned what was once a comfortable lead in a good division into a three-way tie. Granted, the Chargers are historically great in December, they first have to survive a tough November schedule that starts with the league’s best quarterback coming off a bye. Ryan Matthews is probably out for the game as well, and San Diego’s bend-don’t-break attitude on defense won’t be much use against a quarterback who simply doesn’t mess up.

Green Bay Packers: 34-23

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2):

That’s two weeks in a row that Monday Night Football is worth watching. About time ESPN shaped up on the scheduling. Think the Steelers are walking with a little more confidence this week? The Patriots’ score was much closer than the game was. Pittsburgh simply dominated that game in every facet, right down to the final, heads-up (blatantly illegal) play by Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are incredibly good at home this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and Joe Flacco won’t make things any easier with his struggles. If Baltimore falls into a deep hole for the third straight week, this Steelers’ D won’t be the kind to relent.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-16

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4):

That’s two weeks in a row that Monday Night Football is worth watching. About time ESPN shaped up on the scheduling. As for Chicago, it is not a good time to be a Philadelphia visitor right now. The Eagles are clearly frustrated with their results and, as Dallas found out, are now looking for teams to take those frustrations out on. Philly came out of the bye week clicking on all cylinders, offensively and defensively, and the Bears simply don’t have the defensive ability to match every Philadelphia weapon – then again, not many teams do right now. If the Eagles D stays as relentless as it was last week and consistently gets to Jay Cutler, it won’t matter how much Matt Forte does to carry the team; it won’t be enough.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-20

Week 8 NFL Predictions

For about three hours last Sunday, it looked like Week 7 was well on its way to being the most boring week of the season. Then a few things started to happen. The Jets woke up; Matt Ryan became Mr. Incredible; Josh Freeman was Josh Freeman; DeMarco Murray said “Hey” to the NFL; and of course, then there was Tebow. Nobody personified that week better. With Miami beating Denver 15-0 with about 7 minutes remaining, I tweeted, “Can we put the Tebow issue to rest now?” Of course he doesn’t make things that easy. For 54 minutes, 30 seconds, Tebow looked exactly like what everybody expected from a third-string quarterback. For the next 10 minutes or so, he looked exactly like John Elway, making plays with his legs and fitting passes into places a football had no place fitting. Of course, as bipolar as this week was, it did have some upside: I beat every ESPN.com expert on picks this week. Sure, even a broken clock is right twice a day, but it’s still a good feeling. Anyway, onto Week 8.

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 48-23

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1):

I get grief from a friend (Niners fan) every week, because I keep saying that I expect San Fran to win its division, but I always pick against the 49ers. Well, this one gets the top slot, because I’m finally putting my money where my mouth is. San Francisco’s had an extra week to settle down from the emotion (and John Harbaugh sure had a lot of it) of knocking off an unbeaten. Alex Smith looks like a QB reborn, and the Patrick Willis-led defense is looking monstrous right now. Cleveland’s experience a renaissance – it can’t be a resurgence since this Cleveland team was never good, so what else do I call it? – under Colt McCoy and Pat Shurmur; in fact, these two teams are using an incredibly similar formula for their current success. But, San Francisco is doing it better.

San Francisco 49ers: 24-16

Indianapolis Colts (0-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-3):

One of two things can happen after a blowout loss: It will either break a team’s spirit, ruining it for the season, or it will serve as motivation to turn the team around. We’re guaranteed a little of both this week, as these two were outscored by a combined 103-14 last week. That’s just nasty. What’s nastier is that Indianapolis can’t be expecting much better for the rest of the season. The Titans were embarrassed at home and have a chance to redeem themselves against the worst team in the AFC. Think Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Johnson and Nate Washington all lay an egg again this week? Indy’s only hope is to match the Titans with Curtis Painter and Co., which just won’t happen.

Tennessee Titans: 34-10

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4):

I’m gonna go ahead and admit it: I have no idea how to call this Broncos team. The defense has played one good game (and Tebow almost blew it), and the offense is clearly nothing without good quarterback play. Question is, which Tebow shows up and for how long? The Lions, meanwhile, are facing a skid that looks eerily similar to recent years’ performances. If the Lions have any chance of getting back on track, Matt Stafford has to regain his composure and start playing a full 60 minutes and stop forcing the defense to make plays to keep games winnable. Detroit should turn things around here, but of course, that’s assuming Tebow doesn’t stop Tebowing long enough to score points.

Detroit Lions: 23-17

New Orleans Saints (5-2) at St. Louis Rams (0-6):

New Orleans could probably hear the collective gulp that came from St. Louis when the Saints left the Superdome last week. Now, Sam Bradford is officially ruled out for this week, and there’s a good chance everyone in St. Louis, Rams included, will still be hung over from the World Series celebration. Drew Brees should have fun tossing a half-dozen more TD passes.

New Orleans Saints: 37-7

Miami Dolphins (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2):

How do the Dolphins provide an encore for last week’s epic performance? My guess: They lay an egg against the Giants, who’ve had a bye to game plan for … this? Miami is struggling in every aspect right now, and New York should have no trouble controlling this one from start to finish.

New York Giants: 28-10

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (2-5):

The records for this game are misleading. Vikings fans have to feel great about their future right now, and Carolina just watched the Panthers put together a full game that didn’t involve Cam Newton having to throw for 450 yards and 5 TDs to pull out a win. Minnesota may have the edge on defense, with its characteristically stout run D near the top of the league, but with the diversity Newton provides on offense, while Carolina’s defense seems to make every passer look as good as Newton right now. It’ll be a track meet, but edge goes to Carolina.

Carolina Panthers: 35-31

Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2):

I think this is the first time I’ve ever accidentally skipped a game. Oh well. Baltimore is busy defining the team that plays to its competition’s level this season. The Ravens are as good as any, but their losses (Tennessee, Jacksonville) are pretty ugly. Fortunately, an Arizona win falls into that category. Unfortunately, Arizona has the bad timing to travel to Baltimore a week after one of those horrible losses.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-10

Washington Redskins (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-2):

I don’t like the John Beck move from the Redskins. True, Rex Grossman is about as polarized as a starting quarterback can be, he still provides the best chance to win that the Skins have. Coach Mike Shanahan has turned this defense around, seemingly overnight, but it can’t be called upon to overcome every mistake Beck makes, made obvious by last Sunday’s loss in Carolina. Buffalo continues to look like a whole new team, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is just what a coach dreams about … if he has other playmakers. Which he does, in Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson. Give a Harvard grad a bye week to prepare for a defense – even one as good as Washington’s – and betting against Fitzpatrick just doesn’t seem like a good one.

Buffalo Bills: 24-13

New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2):

I love these games. Immovable object meets irresistible force. Strangely, while the Patriots’ offense finally looks beatable and Wes Welker seems almost mortal, the defense seems like it’s found its groove. It did so at a good time. Pittsburgh’s offense seems to have everything covered except QB coverage, and New England is gonna have to hammer Ben Roethlisberger if it hopes to slow him down. And while I’m not buying this whole Steelers-are-showing-their-age-on-defense thing, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick coming off a bye week simply don’t lose, and it’s going to be more than Harrison, Polamalu (if he’s healthy) can handle.

New England Patriots: 37-28

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4):

As weird as it is to think it, Seattle simply isn’t the same team without Tarvaris Jackson under center. He’s taking snaps this week, but he’s not a guaranteed lock for the Seahawks. A healthy Jackson, Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice mean a potent offense, but with as many dings between the three, this Bengals defense should have a field day. Cinci is on the road, but Qwest Field isn’t exactly known for its homefield advantage. Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Co. should be able to put up just enough points to keep this unexpected season a little more thrilling.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4):

How good did DeMarco Murray look in his NFL debut? Well, he’s outrushed Chris Johnson for the season. There’s that. If indeed it turns out that Murray’s performance wasn’t a fluke, Dallas will more than likely welcome the prospect of the NFC’s best offense. I’m not sold, however, on Rob Ryan’s defense. Tony Romo has done what he can to help these second half collapses, but it’s the defense giving up multi-score leads. A game is 60 minutes, not 30, and Ryan needs to prove his defense can play that long. And sadly, as bad as the Eagles have looked recently, they’re still not out of the NFC East race. If Vick manages to play through a full game this offense can run with anyone. If LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson keep making plays where they need to, things will turn around for Philly. Coming off a bye, odds are, the Eagles won’t look any healthier than they do this week.

Philadelphia Eagles: 27-21

San Diego Chargers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3):

As recently as eight days ago, this division seemed like a two-team race. Then KC walloped Oakland at home and San Diego laid a second-half egg against the Jets. I said earlier in the year that, St. Louis aside, no team had more issues to deal with than the Chiefs, and it looks like they’re just now coming into form. Jackie Battle isn’t Jamaal Charles, but he’s getting the job done, and Matt Cassel is improving every game. The defense isn’t the same with Eric Berry out for the season, but it’s clearly learned to survive without him. That said, it survived against an Oakland offense rotating between two clueless QBs. Philip Rivers is far from clueless, and he has much better weapons. Add to that that Ryan Matthews seems to keep taking every team by surprise this season, and you’ve got a formula that’s going to make KC’s run at defending its division title that much harder.

San Diego Chargers: 24-17

Week 7 NFL Predictions

Well, last week, I made the mistake of convincing myself that I would write this while I was on break. I was wrong. So the new goal is to get this one done before I leave for the weekend. That should work better.

Anyway, this week was a little boring. The Tim Tebow and Christian Ponder eras seem to have officially begun, the Dolphins, Rams and Colts continue their furious race for Andrew Luck, and while some may have been disappointed, I don’t think anyone was surprised that the Niners knocked the Lions from the ranks of the unbeatens. Of course, then you have the post-game handshake. I don’t understand the NFL’s logic in not fining Jim Schwartz or John Harbaugh, but when the leaders of two teams that may well be the faces of your league for the near future come inches from physical conflict, something has to be done. The NFL made a mistake in not punishing the coaches, and the coaches are making a mistake in acting like children, rather than manning up and apologizing. That being said, let’s get on to Week 7. It’s not just new QBs that are mixing things up this week.

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 39-19

Houstan Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2):

I didn’t have the chance to do more than checking the score on the Texans-Ravens game last week, but from the looks of it, Baltimore had things wrapped up against Houston for most of the game. That’s not surprising, given that Houston’s one offensive danger right now (Arian Foster) was going up against Baltimore’s strongest aspect (run defense). Houston faces a similar situation here. Tennessee may still be struggling to figure its offense out, but the defense seems to be having no issues, and another week without Andre Johnson in an opponent’s stadium is going to knock Houston back in the AFC South race even further. The Texans aren’t out of that race just yet … they’re just not in it right now, either.

Tennessee Titans: 24-17

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1):

Both teams have to be looking at this game as a must-win. The Falcons have to prove they can get back on track inside their division, and the Lions need to take at least one-of-two in this two-game stretch to show that this isn’t a repeat of 2007. Matt Stafford has to get over himself, though. He’s looked jittery in nearly every first half this season, and after registering the safety last week, he couldn’t seem to make up his mind about what to do next. The Falcons’ D should offer a lighter test than last week, but he’ll still feel pressure. Atlanta’s defense has to perform, though. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been getting the job done on offense, but they simply cannot win when they have to score 35 points per game, especially when they’re walking into Ford Field and Ndamukong Suh and Co. are going to be chasing Ryan all day long.

Detroit Lions: 28-17

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3):

This could very well be the battle for the last chance to have a .500 record for these two. Thanks to a surprising start by the 49ers, both teams seem all but eliminated from playoff contention and are now just trying to be respectable. The Seahawks’ newfound passing attack, aided by a healthy Sidney Rice and previously unknown Doug Baldwin – seriously, nfl.com doesn’t even have a profile page on this game – looks dangerous at times. Cleveland, on the other hand, has managed to field a fairly effective defense, while an offense that looked just a little talent away from exploding last year is now sputtering along. As evenly matched as these two teams are, though, edge has to the home-field advantage and a, hopefully, now-healthy running back tandem in Cleveland.

Cleveland Browns: 21-20

Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5):

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say Denver did this on purpose. Tebow will be recording his first start just a few miles south of where he helped lead Florida to two national championships in college. Odds are, half the fans at Sun Life Stadium will be there to watch Tebow, not the Phins. The Broncos lost Brandon Lloyd to a trade during the week, which will hurt, but Miami can’t know exactly what to expect from Denver’s offense this week. The Broncos’ porous D should help keep Miami in the game, but it just doesn’t have enough weapons to keep up with Denver (which is really sad, by the way).

Denver Broncos: 31-20

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3):

The Jets still look shaky, at least on offense, but the defense has been as reliable as any in the league so far. San Diego has won game after game of close calls, against opponents it should’ve handled. Philip Rivers is consistent as always, but the defense will have to make a statement game against Mark Sanchez and all his playmakers in the Meadowlands. And that’s just not going to happen.

New York Jets: 24-21

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2):

Back to the grinder for Chicago. This team can’t seem to get two weeks’ respite from one of the toughest schedules in the NFC. The Bears demolished Minnesota on primetime, scoring in just about every way possible, but that was an unraveling Vikings team. This is a Buccaneers team that suffered its biggest humiliation in years two weeks ago and has to still be trying to erase that loss from their minds. LeGarette Blount’s probably still out for the Bucs, but the running game, if anything, seemed to pick up last week. Add to that, Josh Freeman seems to finally be returning to 2010 form, and the Bears are gonna have a hard time keeping up with Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-17

Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5):

I said Miami was going to lose because it wouldn’t know how to handle a new quarterback. This time, I think Washington is going to lose because it’s using a new quarterback. One reason why is the reason for the change. In Washington, it’s almost a turnstile system. Mike Shanahan did this with Donovan Mcnabb and Rex Grossman last year, and now he’s doing it with Grossman and John Beck this year. Teams don’t sync well when they have to alternate between two quarterbacks, which puts the pressure on Washington’s defense – although it’s a very good D – to handle things. However, even if Washington’s offense does move the ball, let’s be honest: Carolina’s D isn’t getting any worse. It just … can’t. Carolina’s offense, though, has kept the Panthers in every game, even ones they had no right to contend in. That’s thanks to Cam Newton, who continues to impress despite being the only consistent weapon Carolina has.

Carolina Panthers: 30-21

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2):

Jason Campbell going down for six weeks is painful for everyone. Campbell’s loss may have just cost him a career starter spot, simply because Oakland’s best option was to bring in a former Pro Bowl quarterback. Oakland’s playoff chances are hurt, because it’s signed an out-of-football quarterback and expects him to learn a whole bunch of plays and be ready to start within five days. Against the league’s worst, that’d be hard enough. Against Kansas City, which is coming off a bye and seems to have finally found a running game – which is the one thing Oakland has trouble stopping, keep in mind – it’s going to take a monumental performance by Carson Palmer to keep the Raiders’ win streak going here.

Kansas City Chiefs: 21-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4):

Arizona has looked better in recent weeks. Kevin Kolb seems to finally be getting comfortable, and Beanie Wells is simply coming alive. But Pittsburgh’s offense finally seems to meshing, and the charges that Pitt’s defense seems to old are long in the past. Arizona should have no trouble keeping this a close game, but if Troy Polamalu does play, Pittsburgh just has too much of an advantage here.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 31-20

St. Louis Rams (0-5) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3):

I’d be willing to bet that St. Louis got a steal with Brandon Lloyd for a max fifth-round pick. When Danny Amendola returns next year, Sam Bradford is gonna have a nearly unstoppable receiving tandem. Problem is, that’s next year, not this year. Lloyd should be able to get going immediately, but the Rams have way too many issues to fix right now. Tony Romo and the Cowboys have this thing about giving up late-game leads, but Rob Ryan’s defense isn’t going to let this become a game, and Romo should have a week to almost relax before getting back to choking up big games.

Dallas Cowboys: 28-13

Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5):

I think it’s funny how San Francisco’s whipping on Tampa Bay was a statement game for the 49ers, while the Bears whipping of the Vikings, on primetime, was just a sign of Minnesota’s unraveling. True, it’s probably because Minnesota is much worse than Tampa Bay, but it’s still amusing. The Vikings, on paper, should not be this bad. Their rush defense is nearly as good as ever, and they have always been a run-oriented team. True, “inept” is an understatement when it comes to Minnesota’s passing game, the Vikings seem to have enough pieces to still salvage a respectable season. Of course … that’s when they’re not playing Aaron Rodgers. In a dome.

Green Bay Packers: 27-24

Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2):

The Colts are incredibly lucky at this point. They don’t even have to try to throw these games, because they just keep facing the NFL’s best, nearly week after week. It puts them in perfect position for the Luck Sweepstakes (though I still think disregarding Peyton Manning is a mistake). The Saints have been looking suspect for weeks now, and Tampa Bay managed to expose just enough problems for a win. Indianapolis probably won’t have the same luxury, especially since Sean Payton should be around for the fourth-quarter playcalls this week. New Orleans needs to fix those cracks quick, if it wants to hold onto its playoff spot, though.

New Orleans Saints: 34-17

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5):

Poor NFL. It just cannot catch a break with these primetime games. None of them are working out like normal. True, Jacksonville is at home this week, but when the team can’t seem to sell out its games at rock-bottom prices, that doesn’t really count. The Jags have a decent defense, but odds are, the Ravens defense will be outscoring most offenses this week. It’s a perfect matchup for Baltimore, and it’s not gonna be pretty.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-3

Week 6 NFL Predictions

Couldn’t find much time this week to get the blog on, so you’re gonna get a convinced version this time around … I swear I’ll be redeeming my horrendous performance last week.

San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0):

San Francisco doesn’t give up the play. San Francisco also doesn’t play Megatron. Lions will lose eventually, but it won’t be at home.

Detroit Lions: 27-24

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3):

Falcons are reeling. Their defense stepped up, but then the offense couldn’t get going last week. Cam Newton and the Panthers are a danger every week, and there’s no better than this week.

Carolina Panthers: 31-27

Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2):

Colts had a lot of time to at least eke out a win, but they couldn’t take advantage. Bengals, at home, with a team that looks like it’s starting to click (minus Cedric Benson, who needs to find his legs), should have fun here.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-10

St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0):

Poor St. Louis.

Green Bay Packers: 41-14

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2):

The Bills don’t like proving me right. Still gonna pick them against a Giants team that gave up 36 points to the Seahawks.

Buffalo Bills: 31-28

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2):

The Jaguars’ only saving grace is that Pitt’s offense may be as bad its own. That said, the Jaguars really have no saving grace this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 27-20

Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1):

Skins have too much staked in this game and too much talent to get whipped up on. Vick apologists may say that the losing streak isn’t all his fault, but four interceptions, including one pick-six, speak for themselves.

Washington Redskins: 26-20

Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2):

If Peyton Hillis is back to full health, the Browns should be able to keep this one close, but this is Oakland’s first home game since Al Davis’ death, and Oakland has too much offensive talent to sputter at home.

Oakland Raiders: 21-13

Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1):

Texans are reeling. Andre Johnson’s out for another week, at least, and Mario Williams is gone for the season, and that is huge. Texans can still win a weakened AFC South, but they’re gonna have to make up some serious ground.

Baltimore Ravens: 34-20

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1):

I love that people are still counting on Tony Romo to be big in big games. Especially against a team like the Patriots. He’ll get his 400 yards, but there will be no upset today. Wes Welker and Tom Brady are still the most dangerous combo in the league, and the Patriots all of a sudden have a top-5 run game.

New England: 35-25

New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2):

I don’t think anyone saw that Bay Area beatdown coming from the Bucs. Good teams just don’t do that. In their defense, though, everything went wrong. And what’s better is, they get a very flawed Saints team at home this week. Recipe is perfect for recovering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-24

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3):

The Bears need this badly. As well as Cutler performed last week while running for his life against Detroit last week, it still wasn’t enough to even come close to winning. The Bears D has to, and should, step up this week against the Vikings, although Peterson should easily go for 140 yards.

Chicago Bears: 27-14

Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3):

Dolphins’ best playmaker (Brandon Marshall) wants to get ejected Monday night. Winning mentality there, Phins.

New York Jets: 34-14