Seahawks-Cardinals Prediction - Week 7

Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3):

I understood why Seattle struggled on the road last year. Led by a rookie quarterback who’s buoyed by the best home-field crowd in the league, it’s understandable when the team performs at a lower level on the road. But this year, the Hawks seem to be reverting to their early-2012 standards. If not for a phenomenal second-half comeback three weeks ago, the Hawks likely would have lost two straight on the road.

It doesn’t help that Arizona has owned Seattle at home over the past few seasons, either, and the Cardinals’ defense seems to be miles better at home than on the road. Larry Fitzgerald finally woke up, racking up his first 100-yard game this season, and Andre Ellington has quietly replaced Rashard Mendenhall as the team’s starting back, both of which seem likely to open up Bruce Arians’ defense in the exact way he imagined. The Cardinals should keep those close, but they’re still not at the NFC-leading standard Seattle is setting right now.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-20

NFL Predictions - Week 6

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 48-29

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2):

So I was checking the Giants stats earlier and I noticed something: They’ve given up at least 31 points in every game this season. Every. Single. Game. The highest scoring offense of all time (2007 New England Patriots) only averaged about 35 points per game. That’s bad, folks. And it’s not gonna get any better this week. Eli Manning is averaging 2.4 picks per game, and we all know how much Chicago likes to turn those things into points.

This matchup really couldn’t come at a better week for Chicago. The Bears were never serious frontrunners for NFC leader, but still, getting demolished in back-to-back weeks, even by legitimate favorites, is hard to handle. Thankfully, with the emergence of Alshon Jeffery, Jay Cutler has a completely full and capable roster for the first time as a Bear, and he should have fun this week.

Chicago Bears: 34-17

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3):

For those of you who didn’t watch the Bengals-Patriots game last week, it was a monsoon, one of the worst downpours I’ve ever seen. (Why does this keep happening to New England, by the way?) It forced both teams to switch to a ground-and-pound game and despite looking like he was on his way out, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was able to essentially carry the Bengals to a sloppy win. My point is this: The Andy Dalton-AJ Green connection is clearly not getting it done this year, and Cinci needs something to stabilize the offense. Heading into Buffalo, which has had a surprisingly good secondary this season, with an effective run game is what the Bengals will need.

The Bills’ Thad Lewis, from practice squad to starting QB this week, is in for a rough introduction as a Bill. He played decently in his only career start, but going up against one of the NFL’s elite defenses means that this likely won’t be pretty. Look for the Bills’ defense to keep this close, but with the ability to focus primarily on the Bills’ running tandem, Cinci’s defense should be too much to handle this week.

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-17

 

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2):

Megatron is day-to-day again, and we all saw how well that worked out for Detroit in Green Bay, and Cleveland hosts a much better defense with a secondary that will likely completely eliminate any shot at the vertical game Detroit has. However, Detroit’s defense has played surprisingly well this season, limiting Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps to one big play on the week, which prevented a blowout from becoming a slaughter.

Cleveland likely took a step backwards with the reintroduction of Brandon Weeden, but even so, Weeden was able to make the plays necessary to win last Thursday against Buffalo. Willis McGahee wasn’t the back he was a few years ago, but he still has talent and was clearly good enough to reach Trent Richardson’s YPC average in a matter of weeks. That said, the Browns’ offensive line is atrocious and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to stop Ndamukong Suh and Co. at all this week. That’d be trouble enough for an elite quarterback, let alone a middling sophomore one with a questionable WR corps. The Lions may struggle without Calvin Johnson, but should be able to pull off the win either way.

Detroit Lions: 24-20

 

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0):

I’m a big fan of Terrelle Pryor (the athlete, not the person), but I wanna be clear: He hasn’t faced a serious defense yet. Travelling to Arrowhead without your best back in the lineup against the league’s best defense is not the best first test, either. However, Oakland’s defense has been solid so far this season and against an offense that focuses simply on efficiency, it should be enough to keep this game close.

After perfection for three weeks, Alex Smith has now thrown three interceptions in his last two games. While, granted, the Chiefs won both games going away, it does create a little cause for concern, especially given the fact that his wide receiver corps has been virtually nonexistent since the Eagles game a few weeks ago. However, while Pryor and the Raiders offense look like they have a pretty high ceiling, they haven’t reached it yet, and KC should be able to handle this game in relatively easy fashion.

Kansas City Chiefs: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3):

What a mess of a game. The Panthers come in with one of the NFL’s best defenses, one of the best rushing attacks … and one of the worst records. DeAngelo Williams has proven he’s still a solid runner, and Cam Newton is still able to cover ground fairly easily, but with an aging Steve Smith and absolutely no WR depth, the Panthers have been incapable of putting up enough points to win at all this season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has even less. A porous defense, mixed with a terrible quarterback situation, means that Adrian Peterson will be the lone bright spot of this team for at least the next couple of weeks – and then only if Josh Freeman pans out. Matt Cassel, however, looked good enough in the Vikings win over Pittsburgh, and with the home crowd edge, he should be able to make enough plays to give Peterson some running room and take this game.

Minnesota Vikings: 23-17

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2):

Well, the fun has stopped in Pittsburgh. I’ve never been a big fan of telling players they can no longer do what’s necessary to enjoy themselves, and banning ping-pong and pool from the locker room really doesn’t strike me as a good solution. However, LeVeon Bell looked solid in his debut and Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown have developed a good chemistry, which means that this team should be able to start putting up points soon.

They’re gonna need it, because Bilal Powell has been averaging over 100 yards per game since Chris Ivory got hurt, and Geno Smith has looked markedly better in each game, making zero major mistakes in the win over the Falcons on Monday. And I know I mentioned Pittsburgh’s sense of desperation before, but there’s a reason that team has been in playoff contention for so many years. Now with what should be a fully functional offense, coming off the bye week, the Steelers should have enough pieces to take their first win in a slugfest.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4):

So you’d think with Mike Vick out, Chip Kelly’s offense would be in trouble. But then you’d think wrong, because Nick Foles simply stepped up and resumed carving up the Giants where Vick left off. The defense is worrisome, though. As bad as the Giants are, the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers managed to put up phenomenal stat lines. On top of that, Philly will face Doug Martin this week, who, despite his team’s poor performance, has still managed to perform better than average.

The Bucs are a mess right now. I’ve picked them every week, and three out of the four weeks, with a minute to go, it looked like my pick was right. The inability to close out games is more than just on the players – it’s happened on both sides of the ball – and that has to be fixed. Additionally, the melodrama of Josh Freeman’s departure has only made what once had the looks of a playoff team look like an episode of Hard Knocks.  Mike Glennon may have some talent, but he has three available weapons, and one of them will likely disappear this week.

Philadelphia Eagles: 24-23

 

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2):

I think it’s a little strange how, despite nearly blowing Detroit out at home, the Packers’ offense managed to have a remarkably pedestrian game, scoring just one touchdown on the afternoon. Aaron Rodgers is still one of the league’s best, but either Greg Jennings’ departure has affected the team’s depth more than it’s let on, or receivers like Jordy Nelson and James Jones just aren’t as good when pressure falls on them. Facing off against a Ravens team that actually has a sturdy run defense, and this Packers squad will be forced back into its one-dimensional role from a season ago, only without the team’s best playmaker.

I still don’t get what Baltimore is trying to do on offense. Ray Rice saw a much heavier load last week against Miami (27 carries, almost matching Joe Flacco’s 32 passes), but that’s the first time this season we’ve seen it. Rice didn’t even manage 3 yards per carry, but the fact that the Ravens are willing to push him means that Green Bay can’t simply expect another heavy dose of Joe Flacco. The Ravens should walk out of this one with the better-looking offense at day’s end.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-21

 

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3):

So the Rams have recovered, right? Doubtful. The Jaguars are historically bad, and even with that measurement, St. Louis never really completely put Jacksonville away. Sam Bradford looked much better than he has in recent weeks, spreading the ball all over the field, and Zac Stacy actually looked capable of carrying the ball. But even with the return of Justin Blackmon, the Rams defense doesn’t have an excuse for giving up nearly 300 yards to the Jaguars at home.

Houston has had a ridiculously tough last three weeks to be fair, but more pressing are the concerns about Matt Schaub. The four pick-sixes for TD story, in my opinion, is a little overhyped, but it is something to take not of. Schaub isn’t just making mistakes by throwing INTs. A lot of quarterbacks are throwing way more. It’s where he’s throwing them, such as hitting Richard Sherman in stride and following suit with Tramaine Brock a week later, that is worrisome. Schaub is clearly affected by those passes, and if the Texans are going to turn things around, he needs a soft opponent to help him do so. Enter St. Louis.

Houston Texans: 30-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0):

This one isn’t going to be pretty. The Jaguars are four-touchdown underdogs, and while I think they may cover the spread thanks to Blackmon’s return, I can’t even say that with confidence. That’s ridiculous.

Denver Broncos: 41-17

 

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1):

Even with the loss of Jake Locker, the Titans were able to keep things close and, until a couple of late mistakes by Ryan Fitzpatrick, were even in position to knock off the undefeated Chiefs. They were obviously unsuccessful, but the Titans have managed to pass test after test this season with a young, athletic defense and a receiving corps that is more than making up for Chris Johnson and the O-line’s lack of ability to run the ball.

The problem is, playing in Qwest field isn’t so much a test as it is a gauntlet. The Seahawks are a different beast when they’re at home, and if the Titans are going to shock the Hawks here, they’ll need to shut down an increasingly mobile Russell Wilson, an electrified Marshawn Lynch and be able to break through the NFL’s second-best defense. It just won’t happen.

Seattle Seahawks: 27-14

 

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1):

I finally found a flaw with this team: the running game. Despite giving Pierre Thomas the bulk of the workload in two of the three weeks that Mark Ingram has missed, the Saints are still completely incapable of moving the ball on the ground. That’s been mitigated by Jimmy Graham’s performance and Darren Sproles and Thomas alternately having breakout games in receptions, but going up against a secondary that has been remarkably good at times this season means the Saints will likely have to find some way to move the ball on the ground to win this one.

The Patriots, meanwhile, should be getting Rob Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley back this week, which means that one of the league’s best secondaries should get its first true test of the season. Like Graham, Gronk cannot be matched up on by anyone, and his run-blocking should be able to open holes for Ridley that simply haven’t existed so far this season. If Gronk IS able to suit up—still listed as day-to-day – the Patriots should be able to knock off the undefeated Saints.

New England Patriots: 31-27

 

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2):

Every time I start to think the Cardinals might be legitimate contenders, I check out what they’ve done and realize there’s no body of work there. Wins over Carolina and Tampa Bay are woefully unimpressive and the loss to St. Louis looks worse and worse by the week. Andre Ellington is starting to look like a legitimate running threat, but Bruce Arians’ refusal to use him full time still hinders the Cardinals’ ground game.

San Francisco, meanwhile, continues to look better and better, Colin Kaepernick especially. The Niners have managed to get the read option working to some degree over the past two weeks, and if Arizona is going to win, the defense will have to shut down Kaep and Gore completely, because it’s unlikely the Niners will try to win it through the air, with Patrick Peterson blanketing Anquan Boldin all night. Unfortunately for Arizona, that seems like it’s going to be too tough a task to handle.

San Francisco 49ers: 21-13

 

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3):

This game might actually break the Jones-a-tron, which would be some terrific irony. Washington’s secondary is simply horrific, but RGIII is coming off a bye week that should have given him enough time to mentally set himself for a very good pass rush.

The Cowboys meanwhile, can’t feel bad about their loss last week. Tony Romo went toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning for 60 minutes and made the same number of mistakes; his just came at the wrong time. That defense, however, will have to fix a lot of things this week in order to slow down an almost equally-impressive passing attack from RGIII. Fortunately, the Redskin defense is nothing like the Broncos’, and it should show this week.

Dallas Cowboys: 34-24

 

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3):

Despite losing Ahmad Bradhsaw for the season and what appears to be Reggie Wayne starting to show his age, the Colts were able to light up one of the league’s best defenses last week, even with Andrew Luck still struggling to find the 300-yard mark. The Colts were gashed at will by Seattle’s run game, however, and given that no team has been able to slow down Philip Rivers’ aerial assault thus far, Indy will need to fix that this week in order to have a chance in San Diego.

The Chargers have had some trouble playing a full 60 minutes this year, blowing a huge lead against Houston then having to make late comebacks against both Dallas and Oakland. However, they also have something that most Indianapolis opponents haven’t: a passing game. In the Colts’ only true passing test of the season, against Miami in Week 2, they fell behind early and were unable to fight back. Rivers will only be an upgrade, and he has the added use of his backs as weapons, which Miami never showed. Look for the Chargers to pull off a high-scoring upset here.

San Diego Chargers: 34-30

 

NFL Predictions - Week 5

 

Last Week: 10-5

Overall: 40-23

 

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1):

I love this matchup. New Orleans seems like it’s clicking on all cylinders. Not many secondaries are playing better than the Saints’ right now, Drew Brees is Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham may be the best pure talent in the league this year, and Darren Sproles finally got around to saying hey.

That said, as well as New Orleans is playing, the Bears look like they may be able to expose some holes. Matt Forte looks like he’s on his way to a career year, and the Saints’ run D is far from good. Even better for the Bears, despite a couple of serious injuries in the defense’s front seven, it should be more than capable of holding the Saints abysmal running attack in check, forcing Brees to air it out in what should be pretty terrible conditions on Sunday. The Bears should be able to keep it close but are going to need a little bit of luck to keep from dropping two straight

New Orleans Saints: 30-24

 

New England Patriots (4-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2):

So that team we saw beat Atlanta on Monday night. Who were they? Kenbrell Thompkins and Julian Edelman were taking turns slashing the Falcons’ secondary, which had done a pretty good job of holding Drew Brees in check, to pieces, Stevan Ridley finally started to wake up and LeGarette Blount decided to use his talent once again. Now with Danny Amendola back (at least till he sneezes too hard and cracks a rib), if those performances weren’t flukes, the Patriots should be incredibly dangerous from here on out, even with the warning signs the defense was throwing up late in the game.

The Bengals don’t have to hit panic mode just yet, but it’s getting close. Andy Dalton is technically performing better than last year, but that performance isn’t translating to points. AJ Green has been held largely in check since his phenomenal Week 1 performance and Giovani Bernard, while still effective, isn’t going to be able to save Cincinnati every week. The defense was gashed by the unbeaten, and obviously unrivaled, skills of Brian Hoyer last week, and Tom Brady is a far cry from a career backup. The Bengals should still be able to climb back on top of the worst division in the NFL, but they’ll have to do it from behind.

New England Patriots: 24-18

 

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2):

I don’t quite wanna say this for fear of jinxing it, but Broncos aside, the Lions look like the most complete offense in the league when Reggie Bush is on the field. With him, Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford all playing at this level, it’s nearly impossible for an imposing defense to slow them down, even if, like Chicago did last Sunday, it’s able to capitalize on mistakes. The problem is traveling into Lambeau the week after a Packers’ bye with a still-clearly suspect secondary. Chris Houston and Louis Delmas have led a much-improved backfield, but that’s not going to be enough to stop all of Aaron Rodgers’ weapons.

Green Bay may be sitting at 1-2, but two road games against two playoff teams tends to have that effect on even the best of teams. Now, though, Green Bay had a week to focus on what may well be another playoff team, this time at home. Eddie Lacy and Jermichael Finley should both be on the field Sunday, and it’s going to be hard for Detroit to keep up, healthy three-headed monster and all.

Green Bay Packers: 34-30

 

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1):

Kansas City has to be fully prepared for a trap game this week. Coming off a huge blowout of the Giants, traveling to LP Field and facing a team missing its starting quarterback all seem like a great setup, but the Chiefs have been winning in a specific way this season: Making turnovers without committing them. Alex Smith and the offense have one turnover – and I still don’t think that was a pick last Sunday – but they go up against a team that’s made a living on turnovers this season. No team can sustain this kind of offensive efficiency, and the Chiefs will have to do just that to keep the Titans from turning this into an offensive struggle.

On the other side, I honestly don’t think that losing Jake Locker will hurt that much. Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t add the running dimension Locker does, but he’s still a mobile quarterback, and he was still a 3,500-yard passer with a subpar receiving corps in Buffalo. If Fitzpatrick can maintain a modicum of accuracy this game and the Titans’ D continues to perform the way it has through the first quarter, the Titans should be able to snap the Chiefs unbeaten season on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans: 23-20

 

Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1):

What a comeback by Seattle on Sunday. Houston did its fair share to lose that game, but the second half showed that the Seahawks have gone from a good 2012 team to a championship-caliber one in 2013. A defense that might as well have been a Walmart-brand sieve in the first half all of a sudden closed off everything, and Russell Wilson made game manager look like an enviable position, helping put the Hawks in position to win that game.

The Colts meanwhile, did everything they needed to take a win in Jacksonville and more. Let’s not understate this: The Jaguars are a bad, bad team, but Indianapolis never left that game in doubt. A week after throttling the Niners in San Francisco, Indy looks like it knows just how to compensate for the holes in its game, and that’s exactly what will need to happen against Seattle this week. For all the Hawks’ talents, they still struggle on the road, and the Colts should have plenty of talent to exploit that. Plus, Andrew Luck isn’t gonna throw a silly pick-six with time winding down.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3):

There’s still not much to say about Jacksonville. Trading off one of you incredibly talented tackles so that you get something out of him before he left for free agency is a good move, but that really shouldn’t be the biggest positive for your team on any given week. The Blaine Gabbert experiment needs to end, the Jags have to figure out how to start getting MJD the ball more, and Justin Blackmon can’t come back soon enough. But none of those are gonna happen this week.

It’s kinda scary that, as bad as the Rams have looked the last couple weeks, they’re still double-digit favorites over Jacksonville. However, the Rams do have some solid upside. They have a defense that houses serious potential and, if they can ever get the run game sorted, they have a fantastic passing attack led by Sam Bradford. That alone should be enough to carry this team this week.

St. Louis Rams: 24-10

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1):

That’s much more along the lines of what I expect from Joe Flacco. Throw for 350 yards, but toss five interceptions along the way. I said last year, I hated the move to dump Cam Cameron as OC, and even though the Ravens won the Super Bowl, it’s hard to believe that they wouldn’t at least be a little bet off offensively now. Ray Rice is having an atrocious year, and Joe Flacco simply cannot carry this offense, especially without a true WR1 threat. The defense clearly has talent and is slowly coming together, but that’s going to take a little while.

As for Miami, it’s again important to not blow games out of proportion. The Saints put together their first complete game against Miami Monday night, and there was no way to account for Darren Sproles. As silly as it may sound, the Dolphins’ offense looks like an almost complete package – though a little more run support would be nice – and the defense, with all starters on the field, is something to be feared, especially at home. Look for Joe Flacco to be running for his life this week.

Miami Dolphins: 23-14

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4):

I don’t even know how to pick this one. Philadelphia’s offense is there, we’ve all seen it perform. But at the same time, it’s simply not sustainable, especially with the defense the Eagles are fielding. Sunday’s game at Denver was a perfect example: The defense simply couldn’t stop Peyton Manning and, because of this, the offense was able to get almost no rest from its relentless up-tempo pace, which doesn’t work with a bunch of beat-up and huge 25+-year olds.

The Giants’ problem is more simple: Nothing is working. The D-line has no presence, making the secondary’s job that much harder, and Eli Manning has to force plays, since they have absolutely no run game. The bright side for New York is that Philly’s defense is so bad, Eli and Co. should be able to run up enough points to keep up, then pull away in the second half.

New York Giants: 34-30

 

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2):

I know they beat up on a bad Giants team before the bye, but that was a perfect storm waiting to happen. The Panthers have what’s shaping out to be a very good defense in all aspects, and Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams are leading a rushing attack that almost hides the lack of a passing game. This is a team that, if not playoff bound this season, will be making waves in the next year or two.

On Arizona’s side, though, I don’t know if there’s a worse 2-2 team in football. The Cardinals snuck by a good Lions team at home – because that’s just what the Lions do – and got away with one in Tampa, but were also obliterated by the Saints and beaten by what’s now a clearly struggling Rams squad. I still firmly believe that Carson Palmer will find some measure of chemistry with his receivers soon, but the run game has to pick up for that to happen. It doesn’t look likely that Arizona will win many defensive games this year with the injuries to its defense, though, and that’s exactly what Carolina is bringing to the table.

Carolina Panthers: 20-17

 

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2):

There’s not much that can be said about Denver that I haven’t already, and now they go up against a Dallas team that was completely exposed against San Diego last week. Monte Kiffin is a fantastic DC, and he’ll make adjustments, but there is no way his defense can handle the number of options Manning will be hitting them with this week.

However, Dallas does have an offensive attack, even with Miles Austin at half speed, that can potentially keep up with the Broncos’ assault. Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray are likely the second- and third-best athletes on the field and will be able to keep Manning off the field for some extended period of time. Unfortunately, home-field advantage doesn’t work quite right in Dallas, and that’s what the Cowboys are gonna need to pull this upset off.

Denver Broncos: 34-20

 

Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2):

Houston’s flaws have been horrifically exposed the last two week. The defense has holes like Swiss cheese, and Matt Schaub, for all his passing yards this year, is making mistake after mistake. The Texans seemed determine to turn this into Schaub’s team, and while Arian Foster was dealing with a nagging injury, this made sense, but Schaub has always been a manager, not a game-changer, and if Gary Kubiak continues to push him into 40+ passes a game, these kinds of letdowns will keep happening.

On the flip side, the Niners seem to have finally righted the ship by absolutely crushing the Rams in St. Louis last Thursday. The run game looks healthy, Colin Kaepernick finally acted like a quarterback, and the defense finally figured out how to stop all the short-yardage passing it’s been giving up in recent weeks. The Texans have historically been bad against a big-play quarterback, and this week should only help to boost Kap’s confidence from here on out.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-20

 

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3):

So San Diego beats a decent-at-best Cowboys team at home, having to surge from behind to do so, and all of a sudden this is a playoff-caliber team? Nun-unh. Philip Rivers is having a career year, but that defense is about as bad as it ever was under Norv Turner, and the Chargers are going to have to stop people to win games. As good as Rivers is playing, he only has one true receiving threat, and no legitimate backfield threat to take pressure off.

The Raiders defense, however, looks almost solid right now. Aberrancy against the Broncos aside, Oakland has been fairly stout against teams like Indianapolis and Washington, and with the return of Terelle Pryor, the offense has enough dimensions, even without Darren McFadden, to give a team like the Chargers fits. Look for a big day from Pryor and a big win from this Raiders squad.

Oakland Raiders: 27-23

 

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3):

I don’t like all this primetime matchups with bad teams. Seriously, who thought the New York Jets would be good enough to merit a Monday Night Football slot? For all his critics, Geno Smith is actually performing well, given the tools around him, but he’s still young and he’s making youthful mistakes, and that means the Jets are going to keep struggling to put points on the board, especially against a defense like the Falcons’.

Atlanta is coming off a nearly astounding comeback to the Patriots, but that loss has to instill a sense of desperation in them. Teams that start 1-3 don’t typically make the playoffs, and Atlanta knows this. Matt Ryan is having yet another fantastic year, and I doubt even the Jets’ defense will be able to hold him off, which means Smith will have to win the game, which I don’t think he’s ready to do just yet.

Atlanta Falcons: 24-13

Bills-Browns Prediction -- Week 5

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2):

What’s fascinating to me about this Bills team is the secondary. Yes, Joe Flacco put up 350 yards last week, but he did so on 50 pass attempts and threw five (FIVE!!!) interceptions against a secondary that is about as injured as a unit gets in the NFL. On top of that, EJ Manuel had his first legitimately bad game as a pro – my bad, guys, I decided to try him out on my fantasy team – and the Bills still managed to beat a decent and improving Ravens team, despite injuries to both starting running backs.

But nothing compares to the massive turnaround that just took place in Cleveland. The win against Minnesota was understandable. Nobody gave the Browns a chance, Minnesota included, there were new players to account for, and Minnesota is a really bad team. But beating Cincinnati? The Browns defense has been good all season, but holding Cinci to 6 points, and AJ Green relatively in check, is an incredibly impressive feat for a squad that was written off as the Richardson trade. My bet is, someone figures this team out, but not before they squeak one out against Buffalo.

Cleveland Browns: 17-13

NFL Predictions - Week 4

Welp, last week was terrible. I called three pretty big upsets, but that was offset by missing about twice as many non-upsets. In my defense, though, everyone wrote Cleveland off, and nobody thought Minnesota was actually that bad. After two games where the Giants shot themselves in the foot, you had to think eventually they would stop making mistakes (they didn’t), and you would think the same about the Steelers (nor did they). That said, Week 3 is one of the defining moments of an NFL season. You start to see who’s shaping out to be real contenders and who was simply off to a hot start, which should make this week much easier to follow. Sadly, no breaking blockbuster trades to wax on this week.

 

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 30-18

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-2):

I was talking to a friend about the Niners this week, and we both agree, this team is a complete anomaly. There’s no question that the team is phenomenally talented, though with several glaring holes (made larger by Aldon Smith’s departure), and 1-2 isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, getting blown out twice in a row, the latter at home against a team that had just finished being exposed, is just inexcusable. My best guess is that this is a team that hyped its own self up over the preseason – and knowing Jim Harbaugh, this isn’t a reach – and instead of coming out and focusing on fixing its flaws, it just continued chugging along, ignoring the issues, like lack of receivers and lack of Dashon Goldson, thinking it was good enough to keep going. Well, it’s not, and that realization will hit them sooner or later.

Meanwhile, the Rams are about what I expected. This is not a bad team, but it’s playing in a phenomenally tough division and has been on the road twice so far, against two potential playoff teams. Now here’s where it gets tricky, though. The Rams had the best division record in the NFC West last year, taking out both San Fran and Seattle at home, and this Rams team is better than last year’s. That said, the Rams still haven’t identified a run game, and they’ll be playing on a short week against a team that’s more talented than them. San Francisco should take this in a sloppy one.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-2):

Like I said in Week 1, I don’t want to overhype a team based off one blowout victory. The Ravens were better than they’d played, and Houston had a lot of flaws that were waiting to be exposed. This Ravens team, especially without Ray Rice (injury) and Anquan Boldin (free agency) has issues. Bernard Pierce should find it fairly easy to run the ball against this Bills defense, but Flacco has to start connecting with Torrey Smith if they wanna keep up with the Bills offense.

Here’s the thing about Baltimore’s defense: It’s not bad, but it’s gotten lucky. Matt Schaub was uncharacteristically mistake-prone last week, and Cleveland’s receivers apparently don’t have much professional experience at receiving. Buffalo, however, could spell trouble. Even if C.J. Spiller doesn’t go, Fred Jackson is dynamite, and EJ Manuel is quickly showing himself to be an NFL-caliber quarterback. Look for the Bills to keep themselves in the conversation for another week.

Buffalo Bills: 24-20

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2):

I’m still trying to process just how bad of a game that was between two very good squads. Cincnnati capitalized on horrific Green Bay mistakes to jump out to a big lead, only to come back with arguably worse mistakes of their own, allowing Aaron Rodgers to potentially earn a comeback win in one of his worst games in the last three years. AJ Green took the better part of three quarters to show up, but Giovani Bernard has proven himself more than just a sub-in, and Andy Dalton is playing much better than he did last year. Don’t expect Cinci to have one of those types of offensive games again for a while.

Alright, I felt like I was in the Matrix watching Cleveland play last week. A large part of it was that I didn’t fully appreciate how bad Minnesota’s defense was, but another part was that this Cleveland team actually looked like a team. The defense played well, as it usually does, but Josh Gordon came roaring out of his suspension, making the Vikings’ secondary look silly and Brian Hoyer look like an all-pro in the process. This team did not suddenly become even a middle-of-the-pack team, but it should at least be competitive until teams figure out how to slow down Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon.

Cincinnati Bengals: 27-23

 

Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1):

Same thing I said about Baltimore: Let’s not make that Bears win out to be more than it was. The Bears’ defense is phenomenally opportunistic, and they’ve been that way for the better part of a decade. However, Ben Roethlisberger made some bad, bad, bad decisions Sunday night, and it helped to gloss over the fact that, yet again, the Bears seemed to have trouble stopping the pass – they’re 24^th in the league there. However, the Bears’ defense does look incredibly efficient. It didn’t need to do much to win last week, but the capability is there. This has definitely become a playoff-caliber team.

However, it’s not unbeatable. The Lions front seven has shown itself to be phenomenal at shutting down runs between the tackles – if the runner can break contain, it’s another matter entirely, though – and Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley spearhead a line that will give every opposing line trouble this year. Cutler’s managed to avoid being in trouble for much of the season, and Forte has been able to bounce runs outside a lot. That shouldn’t be easy in Ford Field, and it will take Cutler going to the air against a weak Lions secondary to win. On the flip side, Nate Burleson is likely out this week, but Ryan Broyles isn’t necessarily a step down. With Reggie Bush being healthy, the Lions’ playbook expands dramatically, and as long as they can play mistake-free, it’ll be nearly impossible for the Bears to slow them down.

Detroit Lions: 21-17

 

New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0):

I don’t quite know what to say about the Giants. They lost their first two games, granted, but those were both difficult games to win, and they were competitive in both. And then Carolina happened. Eli Manning looks like Jake Delhomme in the 2009 playoffs, seemingly unable to differentiate between offensive and defensive targets. The offensive line is as porous as it gets, there’s no run game, and the defense just looks lost for most of the game. This is the same football team as last year, but it is in no way the same team as last year.

The Chiefs’ defense passed a major test in Philadelphia last week, holding Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense to an incredibly slow, and low-scoring, pace. But what’s more remarkable is that the offense has yet to commit a turnover. Think about that. For 180 minutes of play, not a single Kansas City Chief has made a big mistake. The Chiefs don’t have the most explosive offense, but if you’re an opposing defense, it’s hard to win if the offense never gives you an opportunity to capitalize on, and that’s what makes the Chiefs so good right now.

Kansas City Chiefs: 17-7

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (LONDON):

I like to think both these teams are so bad, we just kicked them out of the country until one of them resolves its issues. But seriously, I don’t think Pitt is this bad. It should be 2-1 right now, but with the slew of injuries the Steelers have had, along with the number of mistakes Big Ben has made, it’s difficult for even one of the league’s better defenses to earn a win. That should change, though. Heath Miller is back, which takes a lot of pressure off Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, and Le’Veon Bell is finally active, which should give the Steelers a shadow of a two-dimensional offense.

Minnesota’s games go like this: Give the ball to Adrian Peterson. Have him score the first touchdown. Quit. Great for fans, because they can leave after a quarter, terrible for the team, since those other three quarters count toward their W-L. Christian Ponder is looking miles better than he did last year, but this is still largely a one-dimensional offense – albeit one that matches up well with the Pitt defense – and the secondary is atrocious. Sorry, London.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-17

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3):

I expected there to be a learning curve for the Cardinals offense, but it wasn’t supposed to be this steep. Even with Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield, there is no run game, and Carson Palmer is Struggling. Granted, Larry Fitzgerald being hampered hurts, but Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts are not bad options. What was supposed to be a top-10 defense was shredded by Drew Brees, the first time he’s done that all season. Against a tough Tampa defense in Tampa, it doesn’t look to get any better any faster for the Cards, either.

Tampa Bay has officially pulled the plug. Josh Freeman was benched, and Mike Glennon has the starting nod. The two players are of a similar vein, so it shouldn’t affect the actual playbook too much, but having your first career start when the coach’s seat is starting to heat up is a tough motivation. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are also dealing with injuries and are both questionable as well. However, Tampa’s defense, Week 3 aside, has been extremely good, and will likely be able to capitalize on an inefficient Arizona offense this week and let Glennon get a win in his first start.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-13

 

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3):

I’m not entirely sure who showed up in San Francisco last week, but it didn’t look like the Colts of the first two weeks. What amazes me was that the Colts were able to win going away, when Frank Gore was able to average almost 8 yards per carry against them in the first half. I didn’t watch the game, but it seems to me that poor playcalling on San Fran’s part was almost as much a factor as good defensive play. On the other side of the ball, though, Ahmad Bradshaw reminded everybody what he’s like when he’s healthy. Once Trent Richardson gets up to speed, the Colts could have a very dangerous offense.

I don’t like writing about teams that are this bad, because it just gets repetitive, but I did that last week for Cleveland, and I got embarrassed. So here it is, Jacksonville, here’s your blurb. Cecil Shorts is awesome, especially when second-string cornerbacks are guarding him in the third quarter, and MJD was once a phenomenal running back and you’re wasting his talents right now.

Indianapolis Colts: 24-7

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1):

The Seahawks will get their first true road test of the season this week, but I wouldn’t expect much different from them. Marshawn Lynch will show up when they need him, Russell Wilson will take the term “game manager” and make it seem like an honorable title, and the Seahawks D should have no trouble containing a banged-up and mistake-ridden Texans offense.

For the past two seasons, the Texans have relied on two major facets: a phenomenal all-around defense, and a run-heavy offense with quarterback play that simply is mistake-free. Both of those are shot this season. The defense looks lost, and I’m not entirely sure why. Arian Foster is still running slowly – though Ben Tate should be able to make Seattle work a bit – and Matt Schaub is not playing like Matt Schaub. Schaub was unable to move that ball against a fairly weak secondary in Baltimore, and this week only gets tougher, especially with Andre Johnson’s injuries still lingering.

Seattle Seahawks: 21-17

 

New York Jets (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1):

I know it wasn’t against a very weak Bills defense, but I liked what I saw in Geno Smith last week. He made a couple of huge plays (that the Bills couldn’t capitalize on), but overall was very effective and made himself a matchup nightmare for the Bills. Santonio Holmes and Chris Ivory injuries will make the offense a little weaker than it looked last week, especially against a tough Titans squad. Manuel’s dual-threat ability seemed to give the Jets’ defense some pause, though, and that doesn’t bode well heading into Jake Locker’s home. 

I picked the Titans to win last week, but I didn’t expect them to do it on defensive laurels. This is a defense that was one of the worst in the league last year, and while a few upgrades were made, it’s largely the same squad, though with a new defensive coordinator. Against San Diego though, the Titans were able to shut down what had been a very effective Philip Rivers passing attack, and Jake Locker and Chris Johnson were able to do just enough to win, incredible 35-yard touchdown to Justin Hunter included. This week, expect more of the same, as both defenses should carry the load, but with the Titans offense able to do just a little bit more.

Tennessee Titans: 17-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0):

So it officially took two weeks to figure out how to stop this offenses, huh? Props to Chip Kelly for implementing it and in a couple years, when he has a younger squad, this should be very effective, but as of now, it seems like it takes perfect execution by Michael Vick for this to work, even with LeSean McCoy literally looking like he walked out of Madden. In the Mile High City, though, this offense will be a problem. Successful or no, it means the defense will be on the field the majority of the game, and that’s not something you can do in Denver against Peyton Manning’s offense.

The Broncos are as good as the Jaguars are bad, and I really don’t have much else to say. Manning just finished arguably the best three-game stretch in NFL history, and with three legitimate starting running backs, it’s impossible for defenses to focus on stopping him. Defensively, Denver seems to have fixed just about the holes Baltimore exposed in Week 1, and even managed to hold a goal-line stand against a pretty good read-option quarterback. Philadelphia will likely get its yards, but don’t look for the Eagles to match the Broncos point-for-point.

Denver Broncos: 40-23

 

Washington Redskins (0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2):

I’m a little confused by RGIII’s timidity. He’s on pace for 5,000 yards as a dropback passer, but every time he plants, I can feel him flinching, and that’s costing the Skins heavily, as it seems to take him several drives to acclimate himself. Additionally, this whole concept of using him as a pocket passer is just silly. He got hurt, yes, but that’s the risk he runs with the style of game he plays. Making him one-dimensional makes this offense very predictable, and when you have, through three games, the worst defense in the history of the NFL, that’s very bad.

Here’s the problem with Oakland right now (other than it’s not very good). With Terrelle Pryor, this offense is unpredictable enough to give opposing defenses fits, which allows Oakland to at least look competitive. With Matt Flynn, the passing game likely takes a huge step up, but without marquee receivers, it’s still fairly easy to cover. Since Pryor is practicing right now, and looks like he may be probable, I’m going to say that Oakland should get the win here.

Oakland Raiders: 34-24

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2):

For one game a year, DeMarco Murray looks like the best back in the league. Unfortunately, there are no more Rams on the schedule, so Murray just goes back to being a fairly good player. However, Tony Romo has been playing very efficiently this season, and even with Miles Austin struggling along, and Dez doubled all game long, he’s managed to make this a primarily airborne offense. That should get easier this week, since San Diego has given up the most passing touchdowns of any defense in the league to this point.

This Chargers squad has already proven itself to be better than last year’s, I think, but  the offense is still largely one-dimensional and extremely thin. Philip Rivers has actually played like a 4,000-yard, 25-TD passer this year, but Ryan Mathews and just about the entire defense have looked incapable of paying 60 minutes. However, even though Monte Kiffin’s defense looked excellent against the Rams, the Chargers should have enough weapons to make this game a track meet, and so far, the Chargers have the market on that kind of experience.

San Diego Chargers: 33-28

 

New England Patriots (3-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2):

So Rob Gronkowski should be back this week … right? Maybe? Kind of? This is where the Patriots’ mysteriousness gets to be annoying; however, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson finally looked like NFL receivers last week, and Stevan Ridley seems to finally be gaining Bill Belichick’s  trust again. The Jarod Mayo-led defense is the real story so far this season. Tampa Bay is not a good football team, but holding that squad completely ineffective for most of the game is still a feat, and it should be able to give the struggling Falcons fits this week.

Atlanta should be 3-0 right now. It had two opportunities to win against the Saints and Matt Bryant’s first missed field goal of the season versus Miami very well may have cost the Falcons that win as well. Point is, this team is not playing a full four quarters, despite arguably being the better team in each matchup. Roddy White and Stephen Jackson injuries hurt, but Matt Ryan has been making do without them and should be able to do so through this week. Home-field advantage should be able to give the Falcons’ defense an edge against a similarly questionable Patriots offense, as well.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-24

 

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0):

What I love about the Dolphins so far is that they’re a very good 3-0, with two road wins and two wins against possible playoff teams, and yet they have no standout players. Cameron Wake is leading a monstrosity of a defensive line, and Ryan Tannehill has been effective enough to get the job done without any standout performances on the offensive side of the ball. The problem I have with Miami, though, is the same: Nothing stands out about this squad, and that’s going to be an issue heading into the Superdome against a team that’s been terrific against the pass and features one of the great passing attacks of all time.

Speaking of, it seems like Drew Brees finally righted the ship, and he did so against what, supposedly, is a very good secondary in Arizona. His receiving corps is still questionable, with Kenny Stills, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore all seemingly doing their best to avoid a stoplight, but Jimmy Graham has been, bar none, the best offensive player in the game, in my opinion. Pierre Thomas stepped up well last week, and Darren Sproles seems to be waiting in reserve for when the Saints really need to use his talent. The Dolphins have been very good through three games at this point, but there’s just too much going on in New Orleans’ offense to keep this from being a track meet.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20