Week 2 Predictions - 2012

I heard a sportscaster say last week that there are more upsets in Week 1 than in any other week of the year. Don’t know if that’s true, but I like that, and I’m gonna use it, because my picks … yeesh. Not only did I say the Bills would beat the Jets, I said the two teams would combine for 19 points. The Bills outscored that total by 9 … and lost by three touchdowns. I said the Panthers would beat the Buccaneers 30-24, and the two combined for just 26 points (with the Panthers losing, of course). In my defense, this was one of the highest-scoring opening weeks in NFL history, and no one, no one, saw the Jets thing coming.

But there were some emergent storylines that a lot of people did see coming. Peyton Manning is back on orange, and it seems to suit his style of play. New England has already established itself as one of the year’s elite, although the way the Patriots did so was a little surprising. In the NFC, the 49ers did the same, dismantling the Packers by dominating on both sides of the ball. But now we’re in arguably the most important week of the season for most of these teams, where the winless teams try to pull themselves back up to the forefront while the unbeaten try to prove that their Week 1 wins weren’t simple flukes. So here we go:

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1):

I think most people expected the Chiefs to drop one to the Falcons, even if it was at home. I don’t think people expected the Chiefs to do so in such abysmal fashion. Jamaal Charles looked good despite his ACL tear, but that was about the only upside to Sunday for Kansas City. The defense was shredded by the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones tandem, and Matt Cassel’s mundane performance was salvaged only by lots of garbage-time yards and a TD in the fourth. The thing is, don’t expect this to change much. Romeo Crennel was fired from Cleveland for a reason. He’s a good defensive coordinator who is in over his head as a full-on head coach.

As for Buffalo, nobody saw that debacle coming. The Bills were run roughshod by an offense that appeared to be split by the San Andreas Fault as recently as a week ago, and struggled to put up points to match until late in the second half. However, that game struck as more of a fluke than anything. Buffalo’s offense got its act together as the game went on, and given a couple more starts, Ryan Fitzpatrick and C.J. Spiller should be able to get that offense revving again. When Fred Jackson returns, the Bills will have more weapons than they know what to do with. No Jackson this week, but as shaky as the Chiefs looked last week, and as good as Spiller looked, I think Buffalo will rebound well this week.
 

Buffalo Bills: 24-17

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0):

It’s really too early to judge Cleveland by any metric. The defense looked like a standard Browns defense, forcing four picks from Michael Vick and holding LeSean McCoy to less than 60 yards rushing The offense, however, was abysmal. Of course, when your starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver are all rookies, it’s hard to expect much better. And the Bengal defense will be no slouch this week either.

For the Bengals, it doesn’t get much worse than last week, getting smashed by a rival after keeping it close for a half. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, though. Coach Marvin Lewis elected to kick the field goal on 4^th-and-goal from (I think) the 1-yard-line, and Andy Dalton threw a regrettable pick that turned into an even more regrettable touchdown. It doesn’t mean this Bengals team isn’t talented; it just means that to get to great, they need to be on the giving end of those big plays. Andy Dalton to A.J.  Green – as well as Andrew Hawkins, it seems – should be one of the better passing squads in the league, and if you’re a Bengals fan, you have to love what you saw from BenJarvus Green-Ellis. And I have a feeling you’ll see a lot more of him this week as he leads the Bengals past Cleveland.

Cincinnati Bengals: 17-10

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1):

The Vikings cannot feel good about themselves right now. Yes, they’re 1-0, but they did so despite giving up 350 yards to Jacksonville, one of the league’s worst offenses, which didn’t even have its playmaker, Maurice Jones-Drew, for all of training camp. The Vikings’ trademark for years has been their runstopping D, and it did little to stop Rashaad Jennings or Jones-Drew, and it did even less to stop an average Blaine Gabbert for going for nearly 250 yards. Luckily for Minnesota, Reggie Wayne will be out this game, and Adrian Peterson has clearly progressed faster than was anticipated, so the Vikings should stay competitive.

Meanwhile, Andrew Luck got indoctrinated into the NFL in a painful way last week. Despite his three picks, Luck’s performance wasn’t terrible, and he made some brilliant passes throughout the game. Defensively, the Colts forced a turnover and scored a touchdown last week, so it’s not all doom and gloom for Indianapolis’ D, but it’s definitely not stellar, either. Thankfully, Minnesota’s defense should be an easier draw than last week’s Bears’ D, so the Colts should be able to hang enough points to escape with this one.

Indianapolis Colts: 31-27

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1):

Still not entirely sure why everyone’s ragging on Carson Palmer. He only threw for 300 yards and a touchdown, and San Diego’s pass defense isn’t exactly shabby. Obviously, though, McFadden and the ground game are going to have to do better than a 2 yard-per-carry average if Dennis Allen wants to stick around longer than his short-lived predecessors. The Raiders defense, on the other hand, could be something to watch. There’s not much you can do if your offense turns the ball over inside your 40 three times, but each time, the defense held the Chargers to a field goal. Give it a field to work with, and that D might be scary.

I worry for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill wasn’t awful in his debut, and the Texans defense is one of the league’s elites, but there were a lot of mistakes last week. A lot. Reggie Bush seemed like the only player on that squad, and if that’s the case, it won’t be hard to bottle up the Dolphins’ offense, and that defense isn’t good enough to win games on its own, this week especially, where a healthy Raiders offense gives Miami too many guys to key on.

Oakland Raiders: 24-14

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0):

I like the Cardinals (obviously, since I have them going to the playoffs), and their defense was solid against a Seattle team littered with potentially explosive playmakers. But that offense was horrendous last week. John Skelton looked like a scared backup who got tossed into the game by some sort of fluke, and had he not been knocked out, it’s likely I’d be really worried about my dark-horse pick right now. But Kevin Kolb finally has his shot, and he made good on it last week, and he has a couple games to prove himself this time.

Of course, that’s going to be hard against the Patriots in Foxboro. Steven Ridley looks like the perfect addition to an already juggernaut-like offense, and Brandon Lloyd’s field-stretching abilities make Brady and his tight ends even more dangerous. After last week’s performance, it’s gotta make you wonder where Wes Welker fits into the formula now. The thing I’m most impressed with in New England, though, is the secondary. Jake Locker and the Titans have plenty of receiving talent on their hands, but – fluke touchdown from Nate Washington notwithstanding – New England’s secondary managed to hold off any big plays Tennessee went for, despite Locker’s mobility. The question now, though, is how well they hold off an established receiver like Larry Fitzgerald. My guess: pretty well.

New England Patriots: 37-17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):

The Bucs’ defense looked great in holding Carolina to less than 20 yards rushing and forcing Cam Newton into numerous mistakes, but the offense looked downright pedestrian. Quarterback Josh Freeman looked OK at best, while Doug Martin/LeGarette Blount couldn’t find the holes at all. That’s not going to work on the road against a talent-laden offense like New York’s.

The Giants, meanwhile, didn’t exactly struggle on offense, but they didn’t look good either. Ahmad Bradshaw did well, but David Wilson clearly isn’t where the Giants staff would like him to be yet, and Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks managed to disappear for some long stretches against Dallas. Granted, the Cowboys defense was vastly improved with its new depth in the secondary and Tampa should struggle to contain Eli Manning’s passing attack for a second straight week.

New York Giants: 24-16

 

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0):

The Ravens looked good Monday night, didn’t they? Ed Reed did what Ed Reed does (score from the defensive side) and Joe Flacco did what Joe Flacco does. Wait, no he didn’t. Flacco looked like a star Monday, which is definitely not his trademark, spreading the ball all over the place. Ray Rice was his usual exceptional self, averaging close to 7 ypc, in addition to a strong receiving game. The key to that game, though, was Flacco. The Ravens have the pieces to be nearly unstoppable for maybe another season or two, but Flacco is the catalyst that will gel this team together or dissolve it.

For the Eagles, though, a four-pick performance by Vick needs to just be shaken off as a bad day. The defense gave a young Cleveland team fits, but it’ll have to be spot on with its usual trickeration if it hopes to contain Flacco2.0. The Eagles have to be confident about establishing a running game this week after seeing the work Green-Ellis did on the Ravens’ front seven. He was unstoppable, and McCoy is a MUCH better back. That said, this game comes down to Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson. Vick has plenty of talent around him to win games without those two, but if both are no-gos, it becomes a whole lot harder. My guess is that at least one, maybe both, will go this week, and the Eagles will manage to hold off Flacco’s coronation for at least a week.

Philadelphia Eagles: 27-24

 

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1):

Welp, didn’t expect that mess in the Superdome. Drew Brees looked completely out of sorts, and the Saints D had absolutely no answer for Robert Griffin III. We’ve seen this offensive look from the Saints before, when Sean Payton wasn’t able to call plays for several weeks a couple years ago. Brees is an unbelievable passing talent, but asking him to manage such an intricate offense and be able to make the plays he does, especially with a gimpy Marques Colston, the loss of Robert Meachem, and a still-slacking run game, seems like an impossible task. But Colston should be back this week, and Brees won’t have two bad games in a row.

The Panthers, though … There’s not really much to say. The defense performed well, but it they didn’t exactly face a juggernaut, while a late touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell was the only reason Cam had any green on the box score. Granted, Jonathan Stewart was out this week, he’s not a critical part of this offense. Carolina has built a team on the premise that Newton can be dynamic week in and week out, and it doesn’t matter how much this defense has improved, if he hits the sophomore slump, this team will fade fast.

New Orleans Saints: 21-17

 

Houston Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1):

The Texans didn’t look unstoppable against Miami, but they looked efficient and relentless. As expected, the defense didn’t seem to miss Mario Williams, and Arian Foster, despite an injury, was serviceable, while Andre Johnson reminded everyone of why he’s considered an elite receiver.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, struggled against the NFC North’s weakest team, and managed to give up the game-tying field goal in less than 13 seconds of clock time. That’s not only bad defense, that’s bad discipline, and it doesn’t bode well for the Jaguars chances against a strong offense like Houston’s. Don’t expect this one to come down to a miracle drive.

Houston Texans: 34- 17

 

Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1):

I’m really looking forward to this matchup. People expected RGIII to perform, but I don’t think anyone quite expected what he did to the Saints last week, throwing for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns, with no interceptions. Pierre Garcon suffered a mild leg injury but should be back in the lineup, and some rookie named Alfred Morris managed to steal the starting slot at running back – for this week at least – and gash the Saints for 100 yards and 2 TDs. Meanwhile, the ‘Skins secondary did what it normally did, swallowing up receivers and making plays all game long. If I’m coach Mike Shanahan, I’m really confident about my chances this season.

Of course, then you have Jeff Fisher’s Rams, who didn’t just keep the Lions close, they looked good doing so. Cortland Finnegan made an immediate impact in the secondary with a pick-six, and Sam Bradford managed to find enough holes in the Detroit secondary to make plays when he needed to. Steven Jackson only managed 53 yards on the ground, but it’s impossible to gauge that mark against a front line like Detroit’s. Unfortunately for St. Louis, Washington’s defense isn’t nearly as porous, so it’ll come down to how well RGIII handles Fisher’s defense, which should be: well.

Washington Redskins: 23-14

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1):

We got what we expected out of the Cowboys’ offense: a solid running game and a stat-happy passing attack (even if Michael Ogletree was new to the scene). And I knew the Cowboys had shored up their defense, but I was still somewhat surprised by how aggressive it was last Wednesday, all but shutting down an exceptional New York passing attack. Dallas hasn’t had a bad defense in years (first with Wade Phillips, now Rob Ryan), but it has also rarely played like the league’s elite. The Boys will get another chance against several talented playmakers in Seattle.

As for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson was on par with Luck, maybe a little worse, with his performance. On the game’s final drive, he did what he needed to do, but Braylon Edwards (in a shocking twist) couldn’t hold onto the ball in the end zone. I didn’t see the game, so I can’t say whether the Seattle defense was that improved or if John Skelton was explaining why he shouldn’t be considered a full-time NFL starter, but given the D’s performance last week, along with the playmaking abilities of the Seahawks’ entire offensive skill set, as well as special teams, I think they’ll settle nicely back into the spoiler role they inherited last year.

Seattle Seahawks: 20-17

 

New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1):

Well… I have no words. Except maybe wow. The Jets didn’t just show up with an offense; they put on a clinic unmatched by anyone in the league (save maybe the Ravens. Weird, right?). If Stephen Hill can continues performing like that, he could be a scary new addition to Shonn Greene and Santonio Holmes. The defense did what it always does, giving the Bills fits for most of the game before finally relenting late, but it’ll have to be much stingier down the stretch with Darrelle Revis out for this week’s match.

The Steelers were about what I expected. The defense was solid, but just couldn’t stop Peyton Manning enough to make a difference, while the offense struggled on the ground and looked confused on the passing game. Ben Roethlisberger struggled to find a rhythm on the game’s early drives, and a lot seemed to have to do with the playcalling. Once he was able to switch things up a bit, though, he fell into a solid rhythm, broken only by a lone interception … that happened to be the game-sealing one. Pitt will be missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison this week, but my bet is that the Jets can’t keep up this 48 points-per-game pace.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 27-20

Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0):

Tennessee’s offense looked shaky and out of sorts for most of Sunday’s game against the Patriots. Locker didn’t seem comfortable at all, flushing out of the pocket constantly during the game. I don’t know if he’s ready for full-time starter duties, but the Titans definitely seemed like they were just following the trend of passing the mantle to the young QB before the season began, which may have been a mistake here. As for Chris Johnson, apparently getting money was enough for him, as he has been horribly ineffective since signing that contract last year. The Titans defense wasn’t great but played decently, given the field position it was forced into and the offense it faced. Tennessee should be able to regroup down the stretch, but they’re not going to be able to do it in time to win this one in San Diego.

Philip Rivers put up decent numbers, with few mistakes, in the Chargers’ season opener, which is exactly what San Diego needs. The ground game struggled to get going, but that’s what happens when an aging Ronnie Brown tries to replace both Ryan Mathews (clavicle) and Mike Tolbert (free agent). The defense played well with a bend-don’t-break attitude, forcing several turnovers on special teams, deep in Oakland territory. The one major concern I have with San Diego, though, was that, despite incredible field position on three different drives, the Chargers’ offense only managed three field goals. Could be a problem going forward, but this one shouldn’t be close enough to matter.

San Diego Chargers: 31-17

Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0):

Not looking forward to this at all. The Lions have their woes (completely inept secondary, lack of discipline, a running game that hinges on oft-injured backs and a quarterback that can’t seem to stay consistent), but even with a solid game, this matchup does not favor Detroit. The Lions’ defensive front looked about as good as expected going into the season, but the secondary also looked about as bad as expected, seemingly incapable of stopping Sam Bradford when it needed to. That said, as badly as Matt Stafford played for huge chunks of Sunday’s contest, he was still able to pull it together to deliver the last-minute win. Calvin Johnson was every bit as dangerous as last year, and Kevin Smith seemed to find holes that shouldn’t have been there. It won’t be enough to get past the Niners’ defense, but it should make finding the end zone easier going forward.

As for San Francisco, well, there’s not much to say. The Niners hammered Green Bay on both sides of the ball, only letting it get close when Rodgers began airing it out, even then holding him on a four-and-out late in the game. This is the exact same defense we got used to last year, and if anything, it seems much more solid. In the offense lie the questions, though. Alex Smith doesn’t have to be great, but he does need to stay efficient. Ensuring that the defense has a long field to work with every time will go a long way towards victory, while Frank Gore and his backups will have to be able to keep making plays without wearing themselves down. Randy Moss already made his presence in the red zone know, so that should make it a little easier down there for Gore. Eventually, the Niners will come back to Earth, but it won’t be against Detroit this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-25

 

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0):

I wasn’t surprised by Manning’s ability to jump back into the saddle (I mean, statistically, he is the greatest quarterback ever), but I was surprised at how methodical and efficient he was once he was allowed to take the reins of the offense over. Unlike what I said about Brees earlier, Manning seems hampered when he’s not allowed to make adjustments on the fly and seems to prefer the stress. Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee have to make his life easier with a solid running game, while that Denver D seems like it should only improve in the coming weeks.

Of course, Manning wasn’t the only successful quarterback last week. Matt Ryan put on a clinic when he carved up the Chiefs’ secondary in Kansas City. His chemistry with Julio Jones already seems scary good, and Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez weren’t exactly scrubs. In addition, Atlanta managed to hold KC to 17 points until garbage time, which means that coach Mike Smith seems to have found the problem with his defense during the offseason. As good as the Falcons looked last week, though, I still don’t think they’ll be quite prepared to face Manning. (They’ve never played before.) I know this is in Atlanta, but the Falcons’ run game has to get going in order to chew the clock, because if and when it comes down to a QB showdown, it’s going to be Manning over Ryan.

Denver Broncos: 24-20

                                                      

Last week: 10-6-0

Overall: 10-6-0

Bears-Packers Prediction (Week 2)

Lemme just say that I really don't like the NFL's insistence on all these midweek games. Friday was a great day to write my picks. Now I have to do it twice. No bueno.

Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1):

 

Chicago’s sitting pretty right now. A healthy Jay Cutler, a getting-there Brian Urlacher and a new, verified toy in Brandon Marshall.  Granted, it was only the Colts they whipped up on last week, but it was a much-improved Indianapolis team that featured Andrew Luck and a somewhat stouter defense than last season’s version. Green Bay has to be taking a small gulp of fear when it looks at its secondary, then looks at Marshall. After what an average Niners offense did to them, I’d be worried, too. Plus, the Bears defense gets a break with the absence of Greg Jennings this week due to injury.

 

As for the Packers, we’re all supposed to be freaking about them right now, right? I mean, San Francisco just came into Lambeau and whipped the Pack up and down their home field. Obviously, their season is over, the dynasty was ended before it ever began, and Green Bay and its fans should just go ahead and sell the franchise, right? No? Then let’s stop with the concern about Green Bay? Yes, it got handled in a regular season home game for the first time in almost two years. By a team that matched up perfectly with them. This sometimes happens to good teams, especially when they play against other good teams. But if you’re ready to call the Packers season off after one loss, you haven’t been watching the best man in football over the last two years. Yes, Rodgers is missing Jennings, and yes, that defense looked cripplingly old last week, but Rodgers is so adept at spreading the ball around the field that Jennings’ absence simply means picking up James Jones is a viable option for your fantasy team this week. The Packers will shake off the early Niners loss and play well enough to escape the next installment of the NFL’s oldest rivalry with a win.

 

Green Bay Packers: 31-27

Week 1 Predictions - 2012

Sorry, folks, no details today. I completely forgot about these until about 8:30 this morning. It’s really hard getting back into the habit after 35 weeks off.

 

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

Chicago Bears: 27-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-17

 

St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Detroit Lions: 35-20

 

New England Patriots (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

New England Patriots: 27-24

 

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

Atlanta Falcons: 20-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

Minnesota Vikings: 14-10

 

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

 

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Buffalo Bills: 13-6

 

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

Houston Texans: 24-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

Green Bay Packers: 24-20

 

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

Arizona Cardinals: 19-17

 

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

Carolina Panthers: 30-24

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

Denver Broncos: 28-20

 

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

Baltimore Ravens: 23-17

 

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

Oakland Raiders: 24-21

 

Last week: 0-0-0

Overall: 0-0-0

Cowboys-Giants Prediction (Week 1)

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0):

This one’s pretty simple, since it’s the Super Bowl champion kicking off the NFL season, as well as unveiling its championship banner, in front of tens of thousands of near-fervent fans by hosting its arch rival. Once the game kicks off, though, Dallas has some questions to answer, not only for viewers, but for itself I think. Will Dez Bryant be able to shelve his sideline antics? Will Miles Austin be able to rebound from his first serious injury? Will Tony Romo (likely) be able to do without his safety valve Jason Witten? And will Rob Ryan be able to coax just a bit more out of his defense than he was able to get down the stretch last year?

 

On the other side, New York has its own fair share of questions to answer, like: Will their rushing attack be that of the 2011 regular season or the postseason – for my fantasy teams’ sakes, I hope it’s the latter – will the pass rush be able to keep its high end-of-year play, and will Eli Manning finally be able to translate his postseason greatness to a full regular season? My answer: Yes, for this game at least. We’ve seen this Giants team go from Super Bowl contender to simply dropping off the map before (circa 2009), but given the pressure put on this game by the entire nation, as well as their fan base, the Giants all but have to pull this one out.

 

New York Giants: 23-20

2012 Preseason Predictions

And it’s back ... the most wonderful time of the year. The Super Bowl-champion New York Giants kick off against the Dallas Cowboys on NBC tomorrow night, or later today, depending on where you live. (I dunno, I had readers from Russia last year. Go figure.) So with that comes my slightly procrastinated – of course – preseason playoff picks (as well as my choice for Wednesday’s game, because I don’t want to write a full pick ‘em blog two days early just because the NFL has decided Wednesday sounds better than Thursday now).

 
Because I’ll be giving my analysis of teams in my Week 1 preview later this week, I’ll stick to why these teams are why they are where they are, but I think you’ll find a few interesting surprises in what seems like a fairly stable set of playoff picks this year. And with that, we kick off!

NFC:

#1 Seed: Green Bay Packers (13-3) – I really didn’t think I’d put them back on top again this year, but barring catastrophe, the Packers really don’t have a serious threat to their throne this year (they don’t play the Eagles and get the 49ers at home).

 

#2 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) – A soft schedule plus a healthy, cohesive roster make for a relatively easy slide back into relevancy for Andy Reid’s pseudo-dynasty.

#3 Seed: San Francisco 49ers (11-5) – Hard to see the 49ers repeat their same success from last year, given the lack of serious talent and/or depth at nearly every skill position on offense, but Jim Harbaugh’s team should keep a grip on the still-improving West for one more year.

#4 Seed: Atlanta Falcons (10-6) – What has 106 thumbs and benefited most from Gregg Williams scheming? These guys. Unless Carolina finds a shocking amount of talent among its defensive reserves, the Falcons were all but handed this division over the summer.

Wild-Card #1: Chicago Bears (10-6) – These guys were a playoff team last year, then the injury bug struck. As long as both sides can stay healthy, it’s hard to find a team that plays as solid on both sides of the ball. We could be in for a lot of surprises from these guys. 

Wild-Card #2: Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – Yes, John Skelton will make a playoff start. But so did Tim Tebow, and his defense wasn’t as opportunistic and his skills were nonexistent. Look for several surprising road wins from these guys this year.

Just Missed: Detroit Lions, New York Giants – Both of these teams are loaded with talent, and should the Bears’ live up to their injury reputation or the Cardinals make one misstep, they’ll have ample opportunity to make a run. However, the Lions did little to shore up a porous secondary (even releasing starter Aaron Berry), while the Giants seem to have done little to shore up a run game that did little before the postseason last year.

NFC Champion: First, I just wanna say I love the Philadelphia Eagles this year. The way the team gelled as 2011 ended was a little scary and exciting to watch, but I don’t like how that team continue to dump pressure on itself, and I think it will ultimately come back to bite them again. The Packers have the clear road to the big game, but a shoddy defense means that should Aaron Rodgers’ passing attack have one bad outing, Green Bay goes home yet again. So, those aside, my pick is:

Chicago Bears – This is banking on the Bears staying healthy for a full season, something none of their stars have managed to do since 2006-07, but eventually the pieces have to come together, and when they do, this is a team you will not want to see on the other side of the ball come January.

 

AFC:

#1 Seed: Denver Broncos (13-3) – I don’t feel entirely comfortable about that 13-win thing, but I made a bet in April last year, and I’m sticking with it (even if 12 is more realistic). For those saying Denver’s schedule is too hard, people forget that it only looks hard, because this was a 9-7 team given a No. 1 seed’s schedule. With Manning, those games against the Patriots and Texans are all of a sudden much more winnable.

#2 Seed: New England Patriots (12-4) – The Patriots don’t have an off switch on offense, this much we all know. However, they’ll need to find the on switch for the defense this year if they want to hold off the quietly advancing Buffalo Bills.

#3 Seed: Houston Texans (12-4) – Who would’ve thought that Wade Phillips would wind up being 2011’s most valuable acquisition? The Texans lost Mario Williams, but they didn’t have him for most of last season and made things work. A healthy Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, as well as an experienced T.J. Yates will mean Arian Foster no longer has to shoulder the load for this team (sorry fantasy owners).

#4 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (10-6) – An aging defense that’s missing Terrell Suggs, as well as an offense that features only Ray Rice, will sting this year, but in a division that is simply tough, but not great, the Ravens have the most favorable schedule to get the job done.

Wild-Card One: Tennessee Titans (11-5) – No one will understand the benefits of a soft schedule more than this year’s Titans. A solid defense that’s had a year to age, as well as what should be a much more explosive offense with the additions of Jake Locker and Kendall Wright, as well as the emergence of Jared Cook, should spell a giftwrapped double-digit win count this year in Nashville. 

Wild-Card Two: San Diego Chargers (10-6) – I’m more than surprised to see this team here, but favorable matchups and a bounceback year for Philip Rivers and Co., should have this team sneaking into the playoffs behind Denver.

Just Missed: Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills – In the same vein as the Lions and Giants, a poor year by Philip Rivers or Chris Johnson should leave the door wide open for either of these teams. However, an aging defense, along with a very questionable run game and offensive line, mean that Pittsburgh will be lucky to sneak in. Buffalo, meanwhile, was kept out of the playoff race last year by a just unbelievable number of injuries and should be able to keep pace with the two wildcards throughout the year. A home date against the Titans on Oct. 21 should go a long way toward deciding this race, but the Titans should scrape by.

AFC (and Super Bowl) Champion: OK, you can clearly tell that I’m all about the Peyton Manning bandwagon. But the dude played in the South during college and in a dome for his entire pro career. The elements in Denver will serve just as much as a detriment to him as to his opponents, and while the Broncos have other pieces to the puzzle, missing him for an entire game is just too vital a part of Denver’s gameplan to make it through the winter months. New England, on the other hand, has plenty of playoff experience, and yet another loss to the Giants will only serve as fodder for Bill Belichick’s hoodie-covered tear through the AFC, but that porous defense will come back to bite them in the divisional round as the …

Houston Texans run roughshod through the Foxboro snow.  The Texans got about as bad a draw as possible when Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart went down in successive weeks, leaving rookie T.J. Yates to lead the way into the playoffs. A healthy Schaub will this year lead a serviceable passing attack that will get Houston through its schedule, and Wade Phillips’ defense, which will have adjusted to life after Mario, and the Arian Foster-Ben Tate tandem will do the rest, showing the NFL exactly how a playoff game is supposed to be played.

Week 16 NFL Predictions

Well, it finally happened. And by “it,” I apparently mean a lot of things. The Colts won, the Packers lost and Tebowmania hit a br(ady)ick wall. Indianapolis actually put together a solid game – aided by the Titans laying an absolute egg – with Dan Orlovsky winning his first game in 18 starts … that’s not a typo, nor is it a first. (See Steve Spurrier, 1976. I love bringing his professional career up.) As for the Packers, I didn’t see the game, but from what I hear, Aaron Rodgers didn’t have a bad game; all of his receivers did, though, dropping passes left and right. The Chiefs didn’t lay out a blueprint to beat the Packers, but they did show that adding an element of surprise (Kyle Orton’s first start) with a lot of luck (Greg Jennings out and the rest of the receivers not showing up), Green Bay really is beatable. As for Tebow, I’m not going to keep harping on this point, but the trend continues. If Denver’s defense holds – allows less than 24 points – it wins. If not, it loses. And with those storylines safely shattered, a few new ones take place: Chicago is winless since Jay Cutler went down, Arizona and Seattle are both in the midst of improbable potential wildcard runs, and Philadelphia is suddenly back in contention. As for whether any of those teams will actually make the postseason? Not happening, thanks to this week alone.

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 125-65

Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13):

I’m still in a little bit of disbelief over the Colts getting their first win. Tennessee should have had a cakewalk victory en route to its final two games of the season and a possible postseason berth. Instead, the Titans managed to underperform at the worst possible moment, likely becoming the only team to lose to a 1-15 team. That has to be embarrassing. It will stop there, though. Houston is too good to slip up against the Colts, even without several key players.

Houston Texans: 35-10

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7):

Jacksonville has been getting worse lately, but the Jaguars were simply embarrassed in Atlanta last Thursday. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be the only performer on either side of the ball for the Jags, and the coaching turmoil clearly isn’t helping. As for the Titans, until last week, they seemed like a team that was coming together just in time to make a decent run at the playoffs. Now, they’re a team that’s out of contention for the division and will need an incredible amount of help to make the postseason, with only Jake Locker’s development to look forward to. Granted, that’s a huge upside, because he has looked amazing late game in the last two weeks, and he’ll probably do enough to shred the Jaguars’ defense this week, but it probably won’t be enough to satisfy Titan fans who have to wait till next season.

Tennessee Titans: 31-20

San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (9-5):

It’s December, so what’s that mean? A Chargers run of course. The Bolts have won three straight and somehow are still in contention for the division – as is everyone else in the AFC West. Philip Rivers is playing lights out and a healthy Ryan Mathews is shredding opponents right now. On the flip side, Detroit seems to be coming back together, holding off a Minnesota run two weeks ago and making yet another improbable comeback in Oakland on Sunday. There are still some holes in the team, like a secondary that seems to have gaping wounds on any given play, and a running back corps that can’t seem to stay healthy. Fortunately for Detroit, a strong defensive front line and the Stafford-Johnson combo should be enough to hold off the Chargers run this week.

Detroit Lions: 24-21

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9):

Buffalo continues to fight in games, but the Bills just can’t seem to put it together enough to stop their skid. Denver, meanwhile, seems to win every game it’s supposed to, even if the majority are fourth-quarter comebacks, and this is definitely a game the Broncos are supposed to win. I won’t even try to do a comparison analysis between the two teams, because Tebow just doesn’t feel like playing consistently, but suffice it to say he probably won’t need a comeback this week.

Denver Broncos: 20-10

Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6):

Huge playoff implications here. The Bengals almost have to win out and get help, while the Cardinals have to win out and start believing in miracles, so needless to say, loser is out of the talk. Arizona has won 6-of-7, including one over mighty San Francisco, while the Bengals look like one of the best young teams in the NFL and only seem to be getting better. Like I said last week, the Cardinals are making their run in spite of almost no big-name players, but Cincinnati is a fundamentally sound team with five of its losses coming against teams who have already locked up playoff spots. Bengals take this one.

Cincinnati Bengals: 21-17

Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8):

The Raiders and Chiefs are in the exact same position as the Cardinals and Bengals, only this one is interdivisional, and makes the race all the more thrilling. Oakland shelled out a fortune to keep up its playoff chances this year, but Carson Palmer hasn’t been able to do enough to keep the Raiders on pace. The Chiefs faced a similar problem but were only able to debut a new quarterback last week. Orton performed well, but it may be too late to make a run. The Raiders are still missing Darren McFadden, who’s critical to their success, but they’re still a better team than a coach-less Chiefs who are still missing many key players.

Oakland Raiders: 24-20

Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3):

Despite a disappointing season, the Dolphins seem to have found a key future leader in Reggie Bush, who only needs a few dozen more yards to post his first 1,000-yard season. Unfortunately, that’s not going to be enough for the Dolphins to march in Foxborough and stop the Patriots at home. New England needs to win out to ensure home-field advantage for the playoffs, something the Patriots have been good at doing under Belichick and Brady.

New England Patriots: 31-23

New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6):

If you live in New York, you’ve gotta love this showdown. Neither team even close to the playoffs, but both needing to win to stay in contention. And of course, the unbridled hatred between the two teams. The Giants have been a phenomenal fourth-quarter team, but as last week showed, if things don’t go their way – two called-back touchdowns, a drop by Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks (sorry, couldn’t see the number) behind the Redskins secondary – they simply can’t pull off the win. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a humiliating loss to Philadelphia despite having what seems to be all the key parts necessary for another postseason run. The Jets are too good to get to lose twice in a row to a division that seems just short of worthless this year.

New York Jets: 31-28

St. Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4):

All right, we figured out that Big Ben is, in fact, a mortal, and that Pittsburgh is a completely different team when he’s not on. Of course, if he doesn’t make as many mistakes as he did against San Francisco, that game is much closer. Unfortunately for St. Louis, there are really only two questions that matter: 1) Will Stephen Jackson finally find the end zone and 2) Will they lose by 30 or by 10?

Pittsburgh Steelers: 34-10

Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9):

The Vikings simply get worse every week, while the Skins, thanks to quarterback stability, seem to have begun getting their season back on track, if way too late. Fortunately for them, the Vikings’ secondary may be the worst part of a very bad team and a healthy Santana Moss and a running back (Roy Helu) who set the franchise record for receptions in a game earlier this year mean the Skins should be able to run away with this game.

Washington Redskins: 27-14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9):

This game was ugly when Carolina visited Tampa a few weeks ago. Add a much-improved Panthers team, a much worse Bucs team and home-field advantage for Carolina, and this one gets downright embarrassing.

Carolina Panthers: 37-10

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4):

All of Baltimore’s losses have come against teams without winning records. Granted, the last was against a surging Chargers team, the Ravens have been most disappointing when least expected. However, Cleveland’s sliding and a late collapse against Arizona doesn’t help matters. The Ravens may slip up occasionally, but they’re not going to do it twice in a row, especially in a divisional matchup.

Baltimore Ravens: 27-10

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6):

Somehow, all the pieces are coming together for Philadelphia. Should the Eagles win out, the Cowboys lose out and the Giants win today, the Eagles make the playoffs. There’s just one slight hitch: This isn’t the same Dallas team from previous years. The Cowboys aren’t blowing leads late – they got that out of their systems early – and despite losing DeMarco Murray for the season, the Cowboys have put together an incredibly efficient offense and a defense that’s effective enough to hold opponents at bay. Philadelphia has been doing much the same, but the Cowboys haven’t forgotten about their 34-7 beat down in Philadelphia, and they’ll be doing their best to ensure the Eagles pay for that.

Dallas Cowboys: 24-17

San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (7-7):

The Seahawks have been on an incredible run lately, working their way back to a .500 record, thanks mostly to the running of Marshawn Lynch. Problem is, nobody runs on the 49ers. San Fran has gone 15 straight games without allowing a rushing touchdown, tied for the longest such streak since the merger in 1970. In addition, Seattle’s defense thrives on turnovers, something that the Niners ensure they don’t commit. The Seahawks will give Alex Smith trouble, and Lynch will snap the Niners streak on defense, but San Francisco still has enough to play for to walk away with this one.

San Francisco 49ers: 23-14

Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1):

Chicago finally got smart and benched Caleb Hanie. Hanie hasn’t just been bad; he’s been absolutely horrible. The Bears have slid straight out of playoff contention on his inept play, and it’s one of Lovie Smith’s biggest coaching errors that he hasn’t yet benched Hanie. Luke McCown will be replacing Hanie, which should give the Bears a better shot at winning, but Chicago without Jay Cutler or Matt Forte simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match Green Bay at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay Packers: 31-17

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3):

The Saints are a game away from winning the division, while the Falcons are a game away from clinching a wildcard spot. New Orleans stole a win from the Falcons in Atlanta, and it wound up being the critical game in this division race. Unfortunately for Atlanta, New Orleans is simply not making mistakes right now. The Falcons aren’t playing badly right now, but their run game has dropped off considerably in recent weeks, and it’s critical for Atlanta if the Falcons hope to keep up with the Saints this week. Unfortunately for Atlanta, it simply won’t happen.

New Orleans Saints: 31-23

Week 15 NFL Predictions

I love the last few weeks of the regular season. The good teams do what they need to do to get into the playoffs, the bad teams just keep trying to play spoiler, and of course the really bad teams (or just confused ones) fire their head coach because, despite his success, they just really don’t like him. That’s OK, Kansas City, mediocrity is obviously preferable to your GM and HC playing nice. That’s why the last time you won a playoff game was with another team’s aging scraps (Joe Montana).

In a surprising twist on the Tebow beat, the Broncos came back from 10 down with less than 2 minutes remaining to beat the hapless Chicago Bears. Of course, Tim Tebow should again get all the credit, despite the fact that the Broncos were scoreless for 58 minutes, the Bears only put up 10, Marion Barber stepped out of bounds with 56 seconds remaining, rather than dropping to the grass and later fumbled the ball in field-goal range in overtime, and Matt Prater calmly booted two 50-yarders – including an absolutely absurd 59-yarder as time expired – but clearly, this is all a product of Tim Tebow’s phenomenal skills as a quarterback. But I digress.

I saw a SportsCenter question earlier today asking which was more likely: the Packers going 16-0 or the Colts going 0-16? The answer? Both are happening, so long as Mike McCarthy doesn’t do the foolish thing and bench his starters against Detroit in Week 17. Congratulations to Green Bay, and to Indy, welcome to the club. Population: 3, but we’re working on that. With that, here are Week 15’s picks:

Last Week: 11-4

Total: 115-59

Jacksonville (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5):

You know, I specifically said last week that if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were to play the Colts now, the Colts would win a game this season … and then I pick the Bucs over Jacksonville. Someone tell me why I would do this? Because I’m not really sure. But great job, Maurice Jones-Drew, who didn’t just have a career day, with an incredible four touchdowns and over 100 total yards. Unfortunately, Atlanta’s not the kind of team that just hands the ball off to the defense multiples times inside their own 10. Jacksonville’s defense is stout, but not enough to stop the (growing) number of weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal, and if Atlanta holds MJD in check, the Jaguars simply have nothing.

Atlanta Falcons: 27-17

Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):

Time for everybody in Dallas to get their hard hats out again, because this thing’s about to collapse yet again. And Dallas fans, don’t you dare blame this on Dan Bailey. Should he have made that field goal against Arizona? Yes, and he did. Not his fault his coach iced him and he shockingly missed the second of two kicks that have a less than 50-50 shot of going in. And Jason Pierre-Paul simply played lights out last week, right down to blocking that final kick. DeMarco Murray going down and weak defensive play put the Cowboys in this potentially devastating position, not Bailey or – for once – Tony Romo. Thankfully, like I said, the Buccaneers are very, very bad. This is a game Tampa Bay really needs to win if Raheem Morris wants to keep his job, because the Bucs simply have no excuse for their lack of performance this year. However, they just don’t seem to have it together enough to stop a team that’s also viewing this as a must-win game.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-20

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13):

Two things: 1) Tennessee was a New Orleans extra point – the Saints went for two on their final TD – from playing in its fourth-straight 23-17 games. I’m not Elias, but I’m sure that has to be some kind of record, considering the last time three straight happened was like 60 years ago. 2) There are what some to be very credible reports of the Saints’ sideline blowing a whistle during the Titans’ final, and ultimately futile, drive. If those reports turn out to be true, New Orleans could take a hit bigger than what Spygate did to New England. Sean Payton and Drew Brees are considered class individuals, and for either of them to allow an individual on their team to do something like trying to trick the Titans’ offense into a mistake is despicable. Oh, right, the score for this one:

Tennessee Titans: 27-13

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6):

I said earlier in the year that good teams tend to respond to blowout losses with great performances of their own. The Raiders looked awful in their game against Green Bay, but it was one no one expected them to win, so in terms of standings, it doesn’t really matter (Pride is another matter, though. Seriously, Oakland, ew.) The good thing is, the Raiders match up incredibly well with the Lions. Their porous run defense shouldn’t be much of a factor with the Lions anemic run game, especially if Kevin Smith misses this week. Their pass defense isn’t great, but it should be enough to slow down Detroit if the Lions’ only option is through the air. On the other side of the ball, Denarius Moore should be back, giving Carson Palmer a full list of targets again. The Lions’ D, bipolar at the best of time, will have to be nearly flawless for a full 60 minutes, something it hasn’t done since Week 8 at Denver, and won’t be able to do now.

Oakland Raiders: 24-13

Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8):

The firing of Tony Sparano wasn’t a well-timed move, but it was necessary for Miami to begin searching for its next coach and to go ahead and become recovering from the past four years. The Dolphins laid an egg against the Eagles, and the firing could damage an already flawed team. Buffalo, meanwhile, seems to have recovered from its steady stream of season-ending injuries enough to make this season meaningful, if too late for a playoff push. Timing should be to thank for Buffalo’s first win in seven games.

Buffalo Bills: 28-20

Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6):

At first glance, Chicago still seems in prime position to hold on for a playoff spot, but that’s assuming you don’t realize just how bad Caleb Hanie is. I know the Denver defense has been good lately, but Marion Barber put up 140 total yards, and Chicago still scored only 10 points. The Seahawks, meanwhile, under the resurgence of Marshawn Lynch, are the guys I love for a dark-horse contender. Seattle has to win out, but right now, only two games behind Atlanta and Detroit (both of whom have to play their respective division leaders, New Orleans and Green Bay, yet) and playing as well as either, it has a good shot. It has to start this week, though, but given how aimless Chicago’s offense has been, unless Devin Hester returns a couple kicks for TD, Chicago won’t be able to limit Lynch enough to keep it close.

Seattle Seahawks: 17-7

Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8):

I think we can safely say that Green Bay has the perfect record if it wants it (whether that will continue through the playoffs is another question entirely), but after the Greg Jennings scare, McCarthy might be understandably worried about risking his players. Kansas City, meanwhile, should be settling nicely into its “turmoil” stage. I understand that GM Scott Pioli and Todd Haley weren’t getting along, but this is a classic instance of where individuals need to put personal feelings aside for the greater good. In the last two years, the Chiefs have looked better than they have in nearly two decades. You can claim that other teams have overcome injury, and so should the Chiefs, but Buffalo and Jacksonville aside – and seriously, look at those records – I really don’t see another roster that comes close to Kansas City. The Chiefs, at some point in the season, have lost an all-star safety, quarterback and running back for the season, as well as a starting linebacker, two wide receivers and a tight end. Teams just don’t recover from that. Regardless, it won’t affect this week’s outcome.

Green Bay Packers: 34-13

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-11):

Let’s be clear here, guys. Cincinnati is the exact same team it was six weeks. It’s just faced a devastatingly good list of opponents, and this roster is too young to deal with that, especially since this gauntlet came around the time a lot of rookies tend to hit their wall. This is still a decent team with an outside shot of making the playoffs, and now it plays a St. Louis team that is unexplainably bad, with really only one decent weapon (Stephen Jackson). After this week, Cincinnati closes out the season with a home-stand against the Cardinals and a Ravens squad that will likely be resting a lot of its players. Don’t write these guys off just yet.

Cincinnati Bengals: 31-17

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11):

Let’s get this straight: New Orleans is not Detroit. When the Vikings fall behind by 27 points, they’re not going to come back this time, because there is absolutely no way that the Saints’ D gives up that many points to a completely horrid offense that can’t decide which quarterback it wants to use right now.

New Orleans Saints: 38-13

Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6):

I’m so glad Shanahan has decided to leave Grossman in. It makes Redskins games much more entertaining. For instance, what should’ve been a blowout loss to New England was actually entertaining, because Washington had chances to score, and took full advantage. That said, the Giants are in the same boat as the Bengals. Nobody expected them to fare particularly well over the past few weeks, yet when they match those expectations, critics lambast them for losing. It wasn’t just Dallas choking last week, though. Eli Manning is a very, very good quarterback right now, and that defense can step up when needed to. New York owns the driver’s seat of the NFC East, and don’t expect it to relinquish it until at least Week 17.

New York Giants: 24-17

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3):

Carolina defense – exposed. That’s what happens when they go back up against good teams. Cam Newton, of course, just produces at a consistently incredible level, but like all rookies, he is going to make mistakes. The four turnovers against Atlanta in the second half were a bit extreme – seriously, if he just sits down, Carolina probably wins that game – but he will smooth out, and once Carolina can find a defense, it will be a contender for years to come. Houston, as improbable as it seems, survived its gauntlet stretch without either of its two starting quarterbacks or its star wide receiver and defensive end, but not only did the Texans survive, they thrived as owners of the league’s best defense and a seven-game win streak that shows no signs of ending in the regular season.

Houston Texans: 31-20

New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5):

Finally … finally, Denver faces a somewhat well-rounded team. (Let’s be honest, New England’s defense is horrible, but its offense phenomenal, so that makes up for it.) The Broncos biggest issue will be that the Patriots defense is just so bad. I don’t think anyone will argue that Tebow is truly an awful quarterback in the first three quarters, which means that the Patriots, notorious for not being able to actually stop a pass play at any point during the play, don’t even really have to try to hold him in check. Tom Brady, meanwhile, will give the Broncos their biggest defensive test since Week 8 against Detroit, a test they resoundingly failed, by the way. Denver should make this an entertaining game, but the game is going to get out reach far too quickly for any last-second Tebow-rics (Tebow … heroics … get it? No? I’ll stop.)

New England Patriots: 31-17

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8):

I think I mentioned earlier that the Jets are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, thanks in large part to Rex Ryan not running his mouth every other day. It suits New York, because no one seems to be taking a Jets team that can easily go at least 10-6 seriously. Unfortunately, it seems like the Eagles only play best when completely ignored, which is what they’re doing right now. The defense worked together to shut down a good Miami team, and Michael Vick actually managed to go largely mistake free. Philadelphia should be able to do enough in these last three weeks to make the remaining regular season interesting and at least lock down Andy Reid’s job for next season.

Philadelphia Eagles: 21-16

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7):

Cleveland just really isn’t a good team right now. They’re not horrendously bad, like Indianapolis or Tampa Bay, but they also can’t do anything more than just keep from getting blown out, which actually makes the Browns more boring. Arizona, meanwhile, is in the same position as Seattle, and may actually have a better setup. The Cardinals close out with two home games – one a final-week showdown with the Seahawks in what could become very interesting – and a road trip to Cincinnati. What makes this Cardinals team so interesting is that, Larry Fitzgerald aside, it really has no household names to explain why this turnaround (5 of their last 6) is happening. Even better, because there’s not a particular player opponents can gameplan for, it’s hard to shut down either side of the ball. Arizona will probably slip next week in Cincinnati, but for this week, at least, it should keep things interesting.

Arizona Cardinals: 17-10

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7):

By every right, Baltimore should win this game. The Chargers’ offense puts up turnovers as fast it puts up yards, and the defense, statistically, is sound but – thanks to turnovers again – tends to give up lots and lots of points. For the Ravens, Ray Rice is unstoppable, the receiving corps is so talented that, despite Joe Flacco’s inconsistency, at least one receiver is making plays week to week, and the defense has shown its ready for life after Ray (Lewis). There’s just one little problem: It’s December. Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in history in this month, and that shouldn’t change this week. In fact, the pressure and the nature of the Chargers’ opponent should mean Rivers is playing at his highest level.

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3):

It’s about time Monday Night Football got a game right, and of course it’ll be the one I miss. That aside, this could be one of the best games of the regular season, especially since it seems the Harbaughs will be working together to take down the Steelers … seriously, though, is that in any way ethical, John Harbaugh? Either way, with great defenses on either side, a nearly unstoppable quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) on one side and a nearly unstoppable running back (Frank Gore) on the other, the two teams couldn’t be much more unevenly matched. The deciding factor has to go to the home team, though. San Francisco hasn’t been relevant since 2002, and this week will be fighting for its right to hold onto a first-round bye. If that doesn’t drive these Niners fans to the game in droves, nothing will.

San Francisco 49ers: 20-17