NFL Predictions - Week 3

Well, at least I don’t have to search for something to write about this week. Seriously, what the heck, Cleveland? I understand the decision to regroup and restart. That doesn’t bother me. But to do so after two games, with a substantially weaker deal than you likely could/should have gotten for Trent Richardson? It makes no sense. At least get a third or fourth out of this as well. Now all your chips are on the table for two first-round picks next year (and five in the following three), but it’s not even a guarantee that you’ll get Teddy Bridgewater. As for the Colts, well, wow. Richardson immediately gives Indy the depth it needs to go from being a good offense to being an elite one.  The major knock on Richardson is that he’s only averaged 3.5 YPC in his 14 games in the league. A) Broken ribs make it hard to run, B) when your team has literally no other threat, it’s extremely easy to load the box and man up the rest of Cleveland’s weapons. That can’t happen in Indy. Even if Richardson experiences a dip in production, defenders can’t disrespect him, because he will run them over. And if they overload the box, Andrew Luck will pick them apart. I don’t see how this isn’t a huge win and steal for the Colts.

Anyway, onto more mundane things, like picks.

 

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 23-9

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1):

I find it ironic that the Chiefs are doing exactly what everyone expected (playing safe, smart offense and shutting teams down with an athletic defense), yet everyone seems to be shocked by the results. Let’s keep in mind, though, that the Cowboys and Jaguars are hardly elite. Alex Smith has yet to make a turnover, which will change, and there seem to be no significant injuries on this squad, which, given recent history, will also change.

I love the storyline of Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia, and had I not seen the Eagle’s offense in the last two weeks, I’d think the stage was perfectly set for a redemption story for him. Unfortunately, Kelly’s offense is the real deal (defense being another matter entirely). Tonight should make for lots of fun for everyone involved, but home field advantage plus a faster offense that can play from behind mean the Eagles should be able to take one from their old coach.

Philadelphia Eagles: 24-20

 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1):

If you watched Green Bay play at all last week, you got to see Denver 2.0. It looked more like exposing Washington’s porous defense than anything else, though. James Starks, subbing in for the concussed Eddie Lacy, ran over and around the Skins, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was Aaron Rodgers being able to rip one of the NFL’s better secondaries to shreds. That said, the defense has a lot to answer for, and walking into Cincinnati incapable of stopping AJ Green could be a problem.

Cincinnati is weird. The Bengals look good on paper, but the result just doesn’t seem to be there. They gave up an 11-point lead (granted, on the road) in Chicago, then seemed to play a mediocre-at-best game against Pittsburgh at home. Ike Taylor managed to single-handedly shut down Green, but Giovani Bernard decided to take over the game, scoring twice on eight touches. That said, Cincinnati’s defense is as good as everyone thought it would be, and it’s doubtful that Rodgers will be throwing for 400 yards again.

Cincinnati Bengals: 23-17

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2):

Nope.

Minnesota’s got problems. Christian Ponder looks better than he did last year, and Adrian Peterson is slowly starting to look like his 2012 form, but that defense … yikes. Thankfully, they get to play a team that’s openly trying to get the first pick in next year’s draft.

Minnesota Vikings: 24-7

 

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1):

Sadly I didn’t get to see much of the Chargers game last Sunday, but it seemed to live up to track meet hype and, surprisingly, the Chargers managed to not choke away the lead. That bodes well heading into Tennessee, which very much did choke away the lead last week. San Diego historically dominates this matchup, but this is a new-look Titans, and Philip Rivers will have to find some consistency or Ryan Mathews will have to wake up this week.

Tennessee, dare I say it, looks like a potential contender through two games. Jake Locker looks like himself (55-percent passer, about 150 yards per game) and Chris Johnson finally looks decent again, but it’s the defense that seems to be rising up. Aside from a late-game barrage by DeAndre Hopkins last week, Tennessee thoroughly outplayed the Texans’ offense. This week should be a litmus test for how the Titans’ game works out this season, and I think the Titans have enough of a look to make a run.

Tennessee Titans: 20-17

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1):

How is that a team that didn’t have an offensive coordinator a year ago looks worse on defense this year?  The Rams have been absolutely blitzed through the air two weeks in a row, and while Sam Bradford looks like he’ll stick around as a serviceable quarterback, he and the Rams simply do not have enough offensive pieces to keep up with the number of yards their defense is giving up.

What makes matters worse is that the Cowboys are yet another aerial-assault team and they’re much healthier than the Falcons are. The Cowboys defense hasn’t yet established an identity under new DC Monte Kiffin, but it should get there, and hosting the Rams should give them another week to gather themselves.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0:

You know, the Bucs are killing my pick percentage this year. More importantly, though, they’re killing themselves. This team should be 2-0 right now, but thanks to a bone-headed defensive mistake and poor play-calling down the stretch, they’re 0-2. What really bothers me is that Josh Freeman is taking the flak for “not winning” in this situation. In both games he led game-winning/game-sealing drives, and his team failed to come through. This is an offense that, while not one of the league’s best, is one of the most dependable, and any argument to the contrary is based solely on win-loss rather than actual performance.

The Patriots, ironically enough, seem to be in a different situation. Neither the league’s best nor most dependable offense, New England has squeaked by to a 2-0 start, thanks largely to terrible division foes. The defense has carried the Patriots to this point, but it also hasn’t been seriously challenged. That changes this week, and look for Tampa to finally figure out how to hang on to a game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-16

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0):

It’s hard to argue that Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer have manufactured results in the desert. Even without Larry Fitzgerald in the second half of last week’s game versus the Lions, Palmer was able to engineer a game-winning drive (against an admittedly outmatched secondary). Rashard Mendenhall looks like he’s still got something left in the tank, and the Cardinals defense is as good as was expected. Unfortunately, it’s not going to help this week.

The Saints look incredibly good. They’ve only scored 40 points in their two division wins, but that’s the point. Drew Brees has yet to have a good, or even average, game by his standards, and it’s been largely incredible defensive play, inspired by DC Rob Ryan, that has allowed New Orleans to take an early lead in the NFC. That shouldn’t change this week, and Brees should be able to find some semblance of his old self in the Superdome.

New Orleans Saints: 31-20

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2):

We got to see what life was like without Reggie Bush Sunday, and it looked terribly familiar. The defense seems to have made absolutely no progress from last year, and a front seven that managed to hold Adrian Peterson to just 15 yards on 17 carries – after 78 on one – managed to get picked apart by Mendenhall. Bush claims he’s healthy enough to go, and he’ll have to be if the Lions hope to keep up with Washington.

RGIII’s numbers are there, but a lot of that is late-game when the games have largely been decided. He’s clearly having some trouble with the knee, despite his claims to the contrary and it’s a problem, because the Redskins secondary isn’t up to the standard it was in previous years. (Granted, they’ve had to stop Desean Jackson and Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/James Jones so far, and that’s difficult.) Fortunately, they hit the Lions without a fully healthy Bush and a special teams that easily lost the game Sunday.

Washington Redskins: 31-20

 

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2):

The Giants have 10 turnovers through two games. That’s phenomenally bad, and it seems to be the singlehanded reason as to why New York has started 0-2 this year. Their troubles don’t’ get any easier, as the Panthers, for all their own troubles, seem to have embraced a solid strong defense on both facets. Eli Manning and David Wilson will have to find a way to temper their turnovers if they want to avoid an 0-3 start, something I don’t think they’ll be able to do.

Carolina is in a similar boat. Both times, the Panthers should have won, and both times they managed to give up a fourth-quarter lead. It’s arguable that the Bills’ loss came down to a silly pass interference by Luke Kuechly, but had Ron Rivera not gonna ultra-conservative in the waning minutes on offense, they wouldn’t have been in that position. Carolina looks like a solid team with weak leadership, but this week should ease some concerns for the time being.

Carolina Panthers: 21-17

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1):

The Texans are thanking the Patriots right now. If not for New England, Houston would be the shakiest undefeated team in the league. Both wins have come on the last play of the game – the only time in NFL history that’s happened, by the way – and both have come after extremely sloppy first halves. And now Andre Johnson is experiencing concussion-like symptoms – though he is supposed to go this week. Matt Schaub looks like he did in the pre-Arian Foster days and Foster and Ben Tate are splitting what should be the best ground attack in the league, but there are still some problems to address on both sides, and Baltimore may have the talent to exploit that.

The great thing about Bernard Pierce is that the Ravens don’t necessarily need Ray Rice to have a two-dimensional offense, though it would be nice. The Ravens are having their defensive troubles – some incredible miscues by the Browns are the only reason they’re not 0-2 – but offensively, should Joe Flacco get the kinks out of his game, the Ravens can still compete. Look for the Ravens to pull off the upset at home here.

Baltimore Ravens: 21-20

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0):

This is just another game in a long line of what should be incredibly close this week, and the loss of Stephen Jackson only makes this one even more so. Atlanta is far more talented than the Dolphin right now, but Roddy White is clearly not 100 percent and Jackson won’t even be taking the field. The Falcons’ D looks more than serviceable, but it’s hard to gauge that, given all the garbage-time yards they gave up to the Rams last week. 

The Dolphins are a nice 2-0, but it’s no reason to get overconfident. The Colts are clearly having troubles of their own (see: Trent Richardson trade), but a win is a win. That said, I’m still not sold on Lamar Miller (who gets 3 yards on 10 carries against anyone?) and Mike Wallace seems to be an accident waiting to happen. Cameron Wake and the rest of the Dolphins D-line look like a nightmare to block, though, and the Saints showed how much trouble that could cause Matt Ryan. I think the Falcons will pull this one out, but it should come down to the final drive.

Atlanta Falcons: 21-20

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1):

If the reports I’ve seen aren’t exaggerated, EJ Manuel is the real deal, and Buffalo fans have to be pumped about that. He benefited from a complete defensive collapse last week, but still has a game-winning drive on his resume after only two starts. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson still both look fantastic, and this Buffalo secondary, somehow, some way, seems to actually be good. (Keep in mind, half of them are not starters right now.) On top of that, Mario Williams has retaken the mantle of “Super Mario” with his 4-5-sack performance against Cam last week.

As much as the Bills are trending up, the Jets are trending just as quickly downward. Geno Smith looks find, but you cannot rely on him to throw 35 passes against a strong Patriots secondary, in the pouring rain, and be mistake free. That falls on coaching, and that’s where New York is in trouble. The Jets’ D will be one of the league’s best this year, but with a sloppy offense, that hardly matters.

Buffalo Bills: 17-13

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1):

You’ve seen my thoughts on the Colts after the Richardson trade, and I firmly believe them. It just won’t happen this week.

The Niners coming off a terribly lopsided loss at Seattle for the second trip in a row. That kind of loss will not sit well with a team like this, and it’s not likely Jim Harbaugh will need to say much to motivate his squad this week.

San Francisco 49ers: 31-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0):

This one’s gonna get ugly and fast. This is the largest spread the NFL has seen in 20 years, and it’s only Week 3. That’s pathetic, Jacksonville.

Seattle Seahawks: 31-6

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2):

Though the Bears are undefeated, they’ve only looked like a playoff team for about 60 percent of their season so far. A late-game Minnesota collapse, coupled with a rare turnover by AD, gave the Bears a chance to escape with a second win, only a week after having to fight back from an 11-point hole to beat the Bengals. Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett look phenomenal so far, though, and the defense is still making turnovers.

That said, the Steelers are as realistically a winless team as the Bears are an undefeated team. Pitt has absolutely no run game, but the defense is still one of the league’s best, and Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl titles for a reason. The Steelers are feeling a sense of desperation they haven’t had under Mike Tomlin’s reign, and that’s going to play a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-18

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0):

I don’t quite understand why this is a Monday night game. Nobody actually expected the Raiders to be playoff contenders did they? I mean, Darren McFadden, when healthy, is a top-5 back, and Terelle Pryor has shown he can make plays with both his feet and his arms, but the defense isn’t proven and the wide-receiving corps is mediocre at best.

Remember how I said people should calm down on the Broncos’ hype because hanging nearly 50 is almost always a fluke? Yeah, I can’t explain that happening twice. The Giants “held” Peyton Manning to 360 yards and a touchdown, so special teams and Knowshon Moreno simply stepped up and took over. This team has no glaring weaknesses – even the loss of Von Miller has been effectively masked – and it’s hard to see the Broncos losing a game at home this year.

Denver Broncos: 38-20

NFL Predictions - Week 2

Well that was a fun first week, and, I believe, the closest in NFL history (for at least Week 1) in terms of average margin of victory. We had a few upsets – here’s lookin’ at you, Lavonte David – but Chip Kelly’s debut aside, I wouldn’t say any other game created cause for alarm for any of the league’s frontrunners. We all expected Peyton Manning to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league this week, but I don’t think anyone predicted 460 yards and seven touchdowns. Add to that Eli Manning’s ridiculous 450 yards (and even more ridiculous interceptions), and you don’t have to look very far for the storyline of the week with this matchup. A couple of key injuries and benchings look like cause for alarm for some teams, but we’ll get to that as they come up. So here we go.

 

Last Week: 11-5-0

Overall: 11-5-0

 

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

So the Jets are 1-0, huh? That was just a shade surprising, but when the aforementioned David hit Geno Smith three steps out-of-bounds with seconds left on the clock, even these guys almost have to take the win home with them. Unlike New York’s 40+-point debut last year, nothing about this game really stood out to silence Jets detractors. The defense looked good, but not great, giving up over 150 yards to Vincent Jackson but otherwise shutting down a struggling Josh Freeman, and the offense did little except pick apart a secondary in the waning moments of the fourth quarter – a secondary that clearly hasn’t gelled or simply hasn’t improved from last season. Geno Smith looks somewhat promising, and he has too, given the new potential that Mark Sanchez’ season is likely over, but it’s nothing New York can confidently carry into Gillette Stadium tonight.

 

I’m a tad concerned if I’m New England, however. Stevan Ridley’s fumble was clearly an aberration, and subbing Shane Vereen in clearly didn’t hurt the team, but now Vereen has a broken wrist, and Belichick clearly wasn’t thrilled with Ridley’s actions last week. Additionally, Tom Brady looked almost lost on the field Sunday – most of Danny Amendola’s receptions came on the final drive and he hardly targeted his depleted tight-end unit at all – against a secondary unit that was featuring two backups. Jerrod Mayo and Co. look about as decent as they ever have, though, and that should be enough for the Patriots to easily walk out tonight, victory in hand.

New England Patriots: 24-13

 

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1):

Credit to the Rams: They withstood an all-out aerial assault from the new look Cardinals to not only win, but win in a shootout mote. Sam Bradford threw for 300 yards against what was considered a top defense heading into the season, and Jared Cook looks to finally be embracing his potential as an elite tight end – maybe having a quarterback that knows how to throw a ball has something to do with that; I’m not gonna make that reach, though. The only serious drawback on offense was Darryl Richardson, who, at 3.1 YPC clearly couldn’t get it going. I didn’t get a chance to see much of how St. Louis’ looked on defense, but Cortland Finnegan got burned time and again, and based off the number of targets Carson Palmer spread the ball too, the Rams are clearly going to struggle against top passing attacks this year, and that doesn’t bode well heading into Atlanta.

On the other side, Atlanta looked flummoxed by the Saints’ new-look D last week. A lot of that was the fact that Sean Payton was back and Rob Ryan was just debuting, but you have to worry a little about an offensive line that looked like a sieve. Stephen Jackson was clearly a valuable addition (fourth-quarter, goal-line drop aside), averaging 7 YPC, even with that line, but that’s offset by what seemed to be a pretty serious Roddy White injury. Even so, Harry Douglas stepped up last week, and Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones aren’t exactly second-fiddle receivers. And Matt Ryan is better than Carson Palmer, which means St. Louis is gonna be very hard-pressed to match Atlanta point for point this week.

Atlanta Falcons: 31-23

 

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1):

Like offense? You’ll love this game. The Seahawks defense held Cam Newton largely in check, but here’s the thing: Buffalo does not have Seattle’s defense. Its secondary looked weirdly impressive vs. Brady last week, but the Panthers are runners, and they’re gonna cram it down Buffalo’s throat play after play. DeAngelo Williams looked, at least, serviceable and you know Cam will make plenty of moves with his legs this week. Additionally, the Panthers, led by Luke Kuechly, looked formidable, slowing Marshawn Lynch almost to a stop and keeping Russell Wilson in check for the most part.

 

Buffalo has a lot to be hopeful about. First, they only lost to the Patriots by a little, a big improvement on recent years of losing to the Patriots by a lot. EJ Manuel didn’t look spectacular, but he looked solid, making plays with both sets of limbs and, most importantly, not looking flustered or making mistakes. The Bills lost, not on ineptitude, but simply because they went up against a better team. A cobbled-together secondary actually did its job, but the front end of that defense will be what keeps Buffalo from a decent season this year. All the pass defense in the world won’t help if and when Carolina logs 200 yards on the ground.

Carolina Panthers: 23-17

 

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0):

Well, it didn’t take long to figure out if Adrian Peterson could back up his goal of two straight historic seasons. But a 78-yard touchdown aside, the Vikings have a lot to be worried about. Peterson broke his first run because the Lions failed to contain him when hit the line-of-scrimmage. For literally every play following, the Lions – who, from what I saw, showed primarily seven- and eight-men fronts – were able to force the game onto Christian Ponders shoulders, holding Peterson to 15 yards on 17 carries for the rest of the game. Ponder threw for 236 yards, but a good chunk of that came in garbage time, and the Viking defense was simply shredded by Matt Stafford and Reggie Bush. Nothing about that game should make Vikings fans optimistic.

 

Chicago, for its occasional struggles, looked good against Cincinnati, especially when turnover-prone Jay Cutler managed to make an 11-point deficit vanish with almost no mistakes. Brandon Marhsall took a little bit to wake up, and Matt Forte struggled on the ground, but the key takeaway was zero sacks. We’ve never seen what Jay Cutler could do behind a good offensive line, but whatever Marc Trestman implemented, it could be dangerous for the rest of the NFC North. The Bears should gain an early bump on the division this week, so long as they can keep AD below 100.

Chicago Bears: 17-13

 

Washington Redskins (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0):

Lest the Redskins fans panic, I want to point out that Monday night was far more indicative of Philadelphia’s offensive prowess and RGIII’s shaking off the rust, than it was of a team in trouble. Washington’s D was gassed early, yes, but it was playing against an offense the NFL had literally never seen before. Once the Eagles wore themselves out a bit, the defense was much more capable, except against Lesean McCoy, and Griffin looked much more like himself in their second-half surge.

 

Unfortunately, the Skins are heading to Lambeau Field to face a Pack squad coming off a loss of its own. The Packers don’t have a running game that can rip the Skins to shreds, but they don’t need one with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers clearly don’t miss Greg Jennings, and even though Washington’s secondary is by far its best defensive aspect, Rodgers should still be able to put up enough points to match any of RGIII’s efforts.

Green Bay Packers: 31-28

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0):

And so begins a brutal three-game stretch for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill looked very good against a good Cleveland defense that was intent on taking away his primary receiving threat, but that running game… Yikes. Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller combined for less than 20 yards rushing. That will not win you games in this league.

 

Andrew Luck looked slightly schizophrenic in the Colts’ premiere versus Oakland. After looking nearly perfect on Indy’s first two scoring drives, the offense just seemed to shrivel up. Some of that may have been trying to coast to the win, but 18-of-23 for 178 yards is not a stat line you want to see from a quarterback who’s projected to top 4,000 yards, especially when it’s supposed to be your primary offense. While I’m more faithful in Indy fixing its passing attack before Miami fixes its run game, Tannehill looked more consistent and, though picking against Indy bit me all last year, I think Miami will surprise the Colts in Indianapolis.

Miami Dolphins: 21-17

*This originally said Indianapolis Colts, and I'm a little annoyed, because the site decided to not save my changes when I fixed it. Judge me at your discretion.

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0):

I think most people expected both these teams to be 1-0 coming into this game, but I don’t know if people expected the way it happened. Dallas won by forcing turnovers and not committing any of their own, while Kansas City simply destroyed the Jaguars in every facet of the game. Tony Romo looked solid, even with Dez Bryant doubled much of the game, and DeMarco Murray looked like he always looks when he’s healthy: very good.

 

Unlike Indy, Kansas City almost had to coast to the win to keep it from becoming a blowout. Blaine Gabbert clearly had issues in the game, but locking down Cecil Shorts and Maurice Jones-Drew completely still takes some impressive defense. A somewhat jarring injury to Jamaal Charles in the second half meant the end of the Chiefs primary offense, but even that wasn’t enough to keep them from racking up 28 points. The Chiefs are going to get a much tougher test against Monte Kiffin’s defense this week, but that defense relied heavily on turnovers to win last week, and Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles do not turn the ball over.

Kansas City Chiefs: 24-20

 

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0):

I don’t have much to say about the Chargers, other than fits of laughter. That collapsing thing has to stop happening at some point, right? I mean, how does a quarterback go from throwing four first-half touchdowns to finishing under 50 percent and with fewer than 200 yards, as well as throwing the game-clinching pick-six?

 

So Chip Kelly? Yeah. Let’s talk about him, shall we? That offense looked phenomenal in the first half Monday night. On the first drive, by my watch, the Eagles ran at least 10 plays in under five real-time minutes. It doesn’t matter how good your defense is, as long as Vick plays it safe and doesn’t throw incompletions, you cannot keep up with that pace. But here’s where the problems start: Michael Vick is in his 30s. Lesean McCoy is halfway through an effective running back’s career and those offensive linemen are big. When I said “you,” I meant everyone. The Eagles wear themselves out with that offense, and I think we saw that in the second half Monday night. Another telling point: when Vick threw his backwards pass that was returned for touchdown – and it was backwards, folks; look at the hashes – despite no whistle being blown, not a single Eagle gave chase. Talented they may be, but Kelly doesn’t seem to have quite given them that killing instinct yet. The Chargers should be easy enough to roll past this week, but after that, trouble may start.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-24

 

 

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1):

There’s not much to say about Cleveland that differs from last year at all, other than, what the heck are you doing not using Trent Richardson more? In a closely contested games, the Browns used literally their only offensive weapon a grand total of 13 times on the ground. That is not how you win games, when Brandon Weeden’s best weapon is a little-known tight end. The Browns defense is as solid as it’s been over the past few years, embarrassing Miami’s run game, but failing to keep the Dolphins receivers out of the end zone.

 

People need to chill with the doom-and-gloom prophecies over the Ravens. Keep in mind two things: 1) This is the NFL, where the talent gap is incredibly small, and blowouts can swing from losing to winning in back-to-back weeks, 2) You were watching a completely gutted and renovated Baltimore Ravens play in their first full game. Speaking of blowouts, the Ravens didn’t lose the game by 30, and until Demaryius Thomas’ 73-yard screen play, the idea that the Broncos had sealed the win was in serious doubt. The Ravens may slide out of the playoffs this year, but this is by no means a bad team, and Joe Flacco – who three for 362 yards by the way – has not regressed to his old ways, just yet, though 34-of-62 is kind of a gaudy statistic. Ravens should be able to take this one home.

Baltimore Ravens: 31-17

 

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0):

I don’t quite know what I was watching last week. Was that a really good Titans defense that was able to keep Big Ben in check, or did we just get to see what remains of a once-proud aerial attack? I think it leans toward the latter, because what was an atrocious defense last year, with little upgrades in the offseason, isn’t likely turning into an elite squad overnight – though it’s hard not to improve on last year’s performance. The offensive line seems miles better than last season’s, though, and Chris Johnson actually seemed to be able to make waves against a solid Steelers’ run D. Jake Locker was Jake Locker, though, and it’s the lack of a vertical threat that’s going to keep this team from making too many waves this year.

 

Houston has a few question marks to address after Week 1. Can Schaub actually put up 350-3 numbers for the rest of the season? And how will the team address Ben Tate’s performance moving forward. It’s hard to argue with Arian Foster’s career performance, but Tate was clearly the flashier back Monday night. The Texans defense looked completely different in the second half, after getting gashed in the first. Fortunately for it, the Titans likely pose even less of an offensive threat than San Diego did, which should allow Houston to take this one.

Houston Texans: 20-16

 

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1):

The last two seasons have been a lesson in variance for Lions fans. A team that couldn’t lose the close games in 2011 simply couldn’t find a way to win the same in 2012. It seems like the Lions finally solved that problem this year: make sure the game isn’t close. Reggie Bush seems to be exactly the dynamic Detroit needed to stretch the field and allow its defense to get the rest it needs. Phenomenal play by the front four allowed the Lions to keep Peterson in check for the most part, as well, but a still-suspect secondary could be an issue going forward.

 

No surprise here for the Cardinals. Everyone knew they were going to come out throwing, and Palmer still did so quite well. Rashard Mendenhall was serviceable against a quality run defense, but it’s the re-emergence of Larry Fitzgerald and what looks like a very good receiving corps that should allow Arizona to stay closer in the playoff chase this year. They should start by squeaking one out in what should be an aerial show.

Arizona Cardinals: 34-30

 

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1):

Well New Orleans just about answered all its questions. The NFL’s worst defense in history looked unstoppable against Atlanta’s O-line, giving up yards early and late, but looking invincible in between. Drew Brees is Brees, Darren Sproles continued to look phenomenal coming out of the backfield, and it seemed like New Orleans was even picking up on the run game last week.

 

I’ll say it: I think pundits are overreacting on Josh Freeman. He did not look good against the New York Jets, but almost nobody looks good against Rex Ryan when he’s given time to prepare a defensive scheme. Vincent Jackson was clearly unstoppable and Doug Martin doesn’t look like he’ll be having a sophomore slump. If Tampa finishes under .500 this year, it won’t be the offense’s fault. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be an improved secondary made Geno Smith look like an NFL start – though some of that may have been dropping into a prevent defense for much of the fourth quarter. However, I think Tampa’s going to have enough on offense to steal a win away from the Saints this week, despite those problems.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-30

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1):

Not much to say about this game. Nothing about the Jaguars looked surprising. Chad Henne should be able to inject some life into the unit, but it’s not going to be enough to overcome what Terrelle Pryor should be able to do to the Jacksonville defense. Pryor didn’t just look good against the Colts, he looked prepared. Denarius Moore and Rod Streater both looked like experienced wideouts, and Darren McFadden looked as phenomenal as usual when healthy. Raiders shouldn’t have trouble with this one.

Oakland Raiders: 24-13

 

Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1):

As I said about the Ravens earlier, there’s a lot of overreacting going on when it comes to the Broncos as well. Manning has not ascended to a higher plane of existence. Denver struggled to run the ball, and the defense looked woefully exposed against Flacco early on. Mistakes and mismanagement by the Ravens were a huge part of the reason why Manning was able to throw for seven touchdowns last week. This is definitely a playoff team, one that’s likely to win its division, but it is by no means unbeatable.

 

The other Manning and his team are in about the same boat. Six turnovers were barely enough for the Cowboys to hold on against New York, and Eli posted nearly identical numbers (27-42 for 450 yards) to Peyton’s. Reuben Randle and Victor Cruz both electrified, and the Giants couldn’t run the ball to save their collective life. This weekend should be an all-out aerial assault between the two teams, but it’s unlikely David Wilson will experience the same fumbling troubles as he did last week, and that should be enough of an advantage for the Giants to take this one.

New York Giants: 28-27

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0):

It’s hard to find many flaws in the 49ers right now, but they’re there. The defense clearly didn’t play up to par, but rarely does an opponent of Rodgers. The fact that it struggled to contain Green Bay to even field goals may be a bit of a concern, though, especially when Colin Kapaernick will be facing a defense that was able to completely contain Newton on the road last week. Receiving options will become a major problem for the Niners as the season progresses. Kapaernick’s preference is clearly not for Vernon Davis, and it’s unlikely Seattle will give Anquan Boldin as much room to maneuver as Green Bay did.

 

Though their scores were completely different last week, Seattle is in much the same boat. The defense largely contained Cam and should be able to do the same against Kapaernick this week, but the offense is going to have to wake up. Russell Wilson is not a 300 YPG quarterback, especially when his best option is Douglas Baldwin, and Lynch cannot continue to average 2.5 YPC. That said, given the game plan Seattle was able to lay out last week, it should be able to do enough to hold off its division rival.

Seattle Seahawks: 23-20

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1):

I didn’t think the Steelers were playoff caliber, but I also didn’t think they were as bad as they looked against Tennessee in Week 1. Ben Roethlisberger averaged less than 6 yards per attempt, and the run game was totally nonexistent. The defense made Chris Johnson work for his 70 yards, but even that is a worrisome when Jake Locker’s passing ability is taken into account.

 

Cincinnati, on the other hand, just looked like a team that was on the losing side of a good game. AJ Green was a monstrosity, Andy Dalton looked as good as he has in his career, and between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Beonard, the Bengals seem to have enough of a rushing attack to balance out the offense. The fact that the defense was incapable of getting a sack against what used to be one of the league’s worst offensive lines is a red flag, but this team simply has too much talent to lose Monday night.

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-13

NFL Predictions - Week 1

It’s that time of year again, where we have 21 Sundays (and Thursdays, and Mondays, and Saturdays … man I love this game) of pure bliss. Lots of changes, lots of hype and, most importantly, lots of football. Since I pretty much forgot to do preseason picks this year, the record you see next to the team will be the record I predict for the season. (Since they’re all 0-0 right now, I figure you can handle that.) Playoff picks will be at the bottom. So without further ado, let’s go.

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Denver Broncos (11-5):

As you can see, I’m not high on Baltimore this year, and I think their problems start early. I know the acquisition of Elvis Dumervil helps shore up the linebacking hole that appeared in the Ravens’ defense this offseason, but there are simply too many pieces to that championship puzzle gone. I think the Ravens will be competitive, and I think they’ll right the ship, but they’re not going to do it Game 1 in Denver against an offense that could be the most efficient in the league this year.

 

The Broncos, on the flip side, went and got themselves a first-place schedule this year, so it’s unlikely they get a soft 13-3 like they did last year, but this is still going to be one of the AFC’s best. The loss of Dumervil hurts, and Von Miller’s suspension means the Broncos may even drop a game they should have early on, but there are simply too many good weapons that the Ravens haven’t had a chance to account for for Denver to lose tonight.

Denver Broncos: 35-24

New England Patriots (12-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-10):

I said this when the Patriots gave up on Welker, and I’ll reiterate it now: Refusing to sign Welker is going to mark the end of one of the NFL’s best dynasties. Like it or not, Tom Brady is aging, and while the system Bill Belichick has in place likely means that another quarterback can plug in and find some measure of success (a la Matt Cassel), New England has to be willing to pay key pieces to stick around for that transition. Ryan Mallett is not going to be able to lead this team to the playoffs in five years with Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins. But for now, the Patriot machine will keep on marching on, and since Buffalo’s much-maligned defensive line hasn’t changed much, it shouldn’t miss a beat this week.

 

For Buffalo’s part, EJ Manuel may well be the real deal … once he’s healthy. The Patriots secondary is a good start, but the front seven is going to give Manuel fits, even if he is “110 percent,” according to Chan Gailey. CJ Spiller will be as dynamic as ever, Fred Jackson’s no slouch, and Scott Chandler and Stevie Jones are solid receiving threats. The problem is the other side, where Jairus Byrd looks too miss significant playing time and Mario Williams, strangely, can’t be in ten places at once. Plus, a brutal schedule that starts with a season-opening loss at home, means there’s not much hope just yet in Buffalo.

New England Patriots: 31-17

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) at Chicago Bears (8-8):

I’m buying the Cincinnati hype. No, Andy Dalton will never be a hall-of-famer, but AJ Green is a true beast, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard are a serviceable running unit, and the defense should be one of the league’s monsters this year. With the slide of the Steelers’ and Ravens’ defenses, Cincinnati should be able to pace the AFC in defensive acumen, which should be enough to carry this team to a division title. Unfortunately, they’re going to run into a similar matchup against Chicago this week, and they’ll have to start from an 0-1 hole.

 

I don’t like the Marc Trestman hire for two reasons: 1) I don’t care what your arguments are for/against Lovie Smith, he took a team to 11-5 with a starting quarterback who couldn’t play 16 games if his life depended on it. And the you-didn’t-make-the-playoffs-so-you-should-be-fired argument is silly. A 10-6 team makes the playoffs every year; they just happened to lose the tiebreaker this year. 2) It seems like a terrible reach. I understand that he made Rich Gannon look like a real quarterback, but then he went to the CFL. Coaches don’t willingly go into obscurity like that, and rarely do they sit there for around a decade if they have something to offer. For both those reasons, and because the heart of the Bears defense is gone, I think this team is going to slide. But at least they’ll start off with a win.

Chicago Bears: 17-13

Miami Dolphins (9-7) at Cleveland Browns (6-10):

I think the Dolphins have a shot at winning the AFC East this year, and I also think it comes down to how they handle Cleveland in the first game, because games 2-4 are absolutely brutal, and I’ll be shocked if they win one, let alone two of those. Ryan Tannehill isn’t the next Dan Marino, but he has a legitimate threat at receiver, and if all the buzz holds up, Lamar Miller is a legitimate backfield threat. Miami’s run defense was middle of the road, but if the addition of Brent Grimes can help shore up what was a terrible secondary, the Dolphins have a shot at the playoffs. Unfortunately, I think they slip this week.

 

Cleveland is Cleveland. I’ve heard middling things about Brandon Weeden, but even if he steps it up, he has Trent Richardson and … well at least Richardson is a beast. What used to be a fairly good defense slipped last year, and a unit on either side of the ball is going to have to take a step up for the Browns to improve at all. Thankfully for them, the rest of the AFC North – Cincinnati aside – should be slipping back to the pack, so Cleveland should get an extra win or two this year, starting in Week 1.

Cleveland Browns: 23-20

 

Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at Detroit Lions (8-8):

I love Adrian Peterson. Now that I got that out of the way, I can try to think about this rationally. AD is going to go down as one of the best backs of all time, provided he stays healthy, and last year, teams were already loading the box against him. To top it off, Minnesota added Greg Jennings to relieve a little of that pressure. But here’s the thing: Christian Ponder is terrible. Seriously, he threw for 58 yards against Arizona last year. He is terrible. Percy Harvin – when healthy – was a godsend, because Ponder didn’t have to make magical plays to get him the ball. Jennings? Yeah, he’s a deep threat. Also, that secondary is terrible. Jared Allen leads a phenomenal frontline that should be able to mitigate that somewhat, but with 12 games against high-end passing attacks, it’s hard to imagine AD able to go blow-for-blow with them.

 

Here’s the thing about Detroit: Two years ago, the Lions experienced a euphoric amount of luck. Last year, variance came crashing down and, despite having the best single-season receiver in NFL history, Detroit couldn’t pass the ball into the end zone to save its life … or season, since I guess that makes more sense. What we’re realistically looking at here is a team with a phenomenal passing attack made more dangerous by the addition of a very good receiving back in Reggie Bush, compromised by a terrible secondary that the Lions didn’t try nearly hard enough to fix. Even with the loss of Kyle Van den Bosch and Cliff Avril, the Lions front four should be enough to pressure the quarterback, but it’s not going to be enough to help Detroit steal games it shouldn’t win. Look for them to split the series with Minnesota, taking the one at home.

 

Detroit Lions: 27-21

  

Oakland Raiders (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6):

Here’s the thing about Oakland: I don’t have anything nice to say. The defense is still terrible. The coaching staff is laughable. They got rid of a 4,000 yard passer because he didn’t make them a playoff team, which is hard to do when your defense is giving up 25+ points week in and week out. The receiving corps isn’t bad, but there are no standouts, and Darren McFadden will probably be on IR by Week 8. There’s just nothing here.

 

So we know Andrew Luck is the real deal now. Even with a terrible defense (I literally looked at the season numbers for the first time just now. Yikes.), he was able to make this a playoff contender, and with the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw and the breakout of TY Hilton, the offense should be more than able to compensate for any slack the defense gives up. Plus, a favorable schedule, despite the second-place finish, always helps.

Indianapolis Colts: 27-14

Atlanta Falcons (12-4) at New Orleans Saints (10-6):

I know Dallas is “America’s team” and all, but this game should really be prime time. The Falcons have been phenomenal for three years running, and Sean Payton is back, making the Saints an immediate playoff team again. But let’s focus on Atlanta: There’s not much to focus on here. The team is as solid as was a year ago, with the best record in the NFC and it only got better with the addition of Stephen Jackson. The Falcons signed Osi Umenyiora as well as drafting two cornerbacks this offseason, so the defense figures to be somewhat improved as well. A more competitive NFC this year means the Falcons aren’t looking at a 13-3 record, but they should still be near the top, and it’ll start with stealing one from New Orleans this weekend.

 

The Saints are coming. For all his boasting, Rob Ryan is actually an effective defensive coordinator, and given how much Sean Payton has proven he enjoys surprising defensive packages, Ryan should have the green light for just about everything, which should greatly improve the defense’s ability to make stops. Of course, the offense seemingly continues moving forward unfazed, and Drew Brees will more than likely hit 5,000 yards again this season. All this to say, the Saints will probably make the playoffs again this year, but they’ll start from a hole.

Atlanta Falcons: 35-31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) at New York Jets (6-10):

The Buccaneers are probably the biggest wild card going into the regular season. Slumps or no, Josh Freeman threw for more than 4,000 yards and scored more than 25 touchdowns last year, which means that potential for excellence is always there. Doug Martin’s breakout season means the Bucs always have a huge weapon to fall back on, either way. Tampa Bay’s rush defense was phenomenal, but the secondary was also one of the worst I can remember seeing in 20+ years of watching football. The Bucs have gone to some length trying to shore up that secondary, and if it works, this team is playoff material. However, that’s going to need a lot of improvement, and I don’t think it happens overnight.

 

Rex Ryan is a dead man walking, as far as I can tell. The Jets’ defense should be as good as it’s been in years, but the offense is a mess. Chris Ivory – third/fourth-string RB for the Saints last year, in case you didn’t know the name – is the “best” weapon on this offense that doesn’t seem to know what a starting quarterback looks like. The Jets only have about four guaranteed wins on their schedule, and I think the defense will be good enough to take a couple more, but overall, this team has nothing going for it.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17-13

Tennessee Titans (7-9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6):

Terrible defense, terrible offense. I called this team way wrong last year, and I feel bad about it, because I love the Titans. But things should improve a little bit, because a) they can’t get much worse and b) the Titans have made tremendous moves to retool the offense to Chris Johnson’s liking. A revamped offensive line, as well what should be a very good quartet of receivers, should make Jake Locker a serviceable quarterback, freeing up some pressure from Chris Johnson. The Titans should do enough to keep Mike Munchak in his coaching position, but not much beyond that.

 

Every year, Pittsburgh seems to age just a little bit more and slip back to the pack a little bit more, but every year, it seems to keep on rolling. The defense finished top in the league in yard’s allowed last year, and even with a slip in that area, it should have a negligible impact. Losing Mike Wallace will hurt, especially since Heath Miller will likely be sitting out the first half of the season, but Ben Roethlisberger has two Super Bowls to his name for a reason. Even with a turnstile running back corps, the Steelers should be able to put together a wild-card run.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 24-16

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Carolina Panthers 8-8):

There’s not much I can say about the ‘Hawks that hasn’t already been said. Russell Wilson paid impressive dividends last year, Marshawn Lynch is still a Beast, and the defense is, well, you saw it. This team has all the pieces to make a Super Bowl run, even if it doesn’t finish with the best regular-season record.

 

Carolina, on the other hand, confuses me. As bad as the team seemed to be at the outset of 2012, a four-game win streak helped close the season with a respectable 7-9 record. Whatever Cam Newton had last year was not a slump. He may irk some people, but he’s a legitimate NFL starter, and he makes the Panthers’ offense work with aging, mediocre players. Steve Smith is still a legitimate threat, but Brandon LaFell is not, and the rash of injuries the Panthers have in the backfield mean Cam likely has no help coming from back there either. A much improved defense from a couple years ago should help Carolina stay in some games, but this is not yet a playoff team.

 

Seattle Seahawks: 24-20

Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13):

If you want a dark-horse playoff candidate, here you go. The Chiefs have all the pieces and a proven coach to put them together. Assuming Alex Smith continues his ridiculously accurate play, and Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs’ defensive playmakers can stay on the field, the Chiefs have a shot at the playoffs. However, given this team’s history, that’s unlikely, though there’s plenty to give the Chiefs hope for the future.

 

This team is terrible, from top to bottom. Maurice Jones-Drew is the Jaguars’ lone elite weapon – though the breakout of Cecil Shorts last year was a nice addition – on either side of the ball. The defense is terrible, Blaine Gabbert is average at best, and the management just doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do, other than clean house. No part of Jacksonville’s season will be pretty.

Kansas City Chiefs: 27-17

Arizona Cardinals (7-9) at St. Louis Rams (7-9):

If you need proof the NFC West is the best division in football, look no farther than these two teams. The addition of Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians immediately makes a former 4-12 team a legitimate playoff threat, while St. Louis managed to finish with a losing record, yet the best division record in the division. For Arizona, playoffs are a real possibility. Again, Palmer is a legitimate 4,000-yard, 25-TD threat, and he has one of the best weapons in the game to target, as well as a potential breakout in Michael Floyd. The addition of Rashard Mendenhall means that Arizona actually has potential in both dimensions, and a very good secondary should keep games from getting too out of hand.

 

For St. Louis, expectations haven’t been this high in a decade, and there’s a legitimate reason for this. A defense that went toe-to-toe with San Francisco and Seattle last year returns largely unscathed, and a healthy Sam Bradford should be a little more effective on the opposite side of the ball. Unfortunately, the ceiling for this team is pretty low, though it should be able to take one from Arizona to open the season.

St. Louis Rams: 13-10

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-5):

Green Bay looks the same as it has for almost five years now: serviceable defense propped up by probably the best quarterback in football, with an outside shot at actually having a running game. Of course, a phenomenal return man helps things out. The loss of Greg Jennings should hurt, at least until Jordy Nelson is fully healthy, and if Eddie Lacy pans out, this team has another legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run. This game should be phenomenal for the offensive-defensive contrast, as well as to see how Green Bay will be able to handle Colin Kaepernick now that it’s had an offseason to study him.

 

Somehow, some way, the Niners managed to improve on defense in the offseason, and I’m not entirely sure that’s fair. Kaepernick has to prove he wasn’t a fluke this season, and while I think he’ll play well, I don’t think we’re looking at quite another season like last year. Frank Gore will wear down at some point, and it looks like this may be the year – of course, LaMichael James waiting in the wings probably isn’t the worst option. San Fran is the favorite to rep the NFC in the Super Bowl for good reason, and they should show it Sunday afternoon.

San Francisco 49ers: 23-20

New York Giants (6-10) at Dallas Cowboys (7-9):

I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Giants. David Wilson will probably pan out, but Eli Manning has to be more consistent than he was down the stretch last year. The defense is sliding, and losing Umenyiora didn’t help matters at all. At some point, the floor will drop, and though Manning’s proven his ability to carry a team when it matters, I don’t see him doing it for the whole season.

 

Dallas, on the other hand, should be able to stick right in the middle of the road, where it’s been for several years now. A phenomenal passing attack, with a potential boost from DeMarco Murray, if he can stay healthy, should be able to keep them in games, but it will be interesting to see what kind of magic Monte Kiffin can do with Rob Ryan’s old players. Dallas should start off on the right side of .500 to start the season.

Dallas Cowboys: 27-21

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) at Washington Redskins (10-6):

Let’s be clear on one thing about the Eagles: This is not a bad football team. What happened last year was the result of a desperate coaching staff that knew if it didn’t find a magic formula, it was done. For all his issues, Michael Vick is still a dynamic athlete, and LeSean McCoy is still one of the best backs in the league. Losing Jeremy Maclin hurt, and Riley Cooper has clearly alienated himself, but Desean Jackson and Brent Celek are more than capable of stepping up to the plate if need be. The question here will be how the defense handles change. Losing Nnamdi Asamugha will impact a good secondary, but given Chip Kelly’s propensity for offensive explosiveness, it’s unlikely that he’ll be too concerned, even if this defense starts giving up 30 a game.

 

RGIII’s health is a serious issue. Kirk Cousins seems like he’d be a legitimate starter on almost every other team, but it’s Griffin’s two-dimensional aspect that makes the Redskins so dangerous. Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon highlight a slew of potential weapons for Griffin, and the Skins are clearly banking on young defensive backs to have the same impact on the other side of the ball. Even if that fails to pan out, however, this is a team that has enough help on both lines and skill positions to take the division with relative ease.

Washington Redskins: 31-21

Houston Texans (12-4) at San Diego Chargers(6-10):

The Texans made some funny moves with their offensive line over the offseason, but given the success Gary Kubiak has found in Arian Foster, I’m not going to question it until it stops working. With a healthy Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson, as well as the hopeful emergence of DeAndre Hopkins, Matt Schaub should be able to take some of that pressure off Foster and backup Ben Tate. Wade Phillips’ defensive will likely be able to stay just as dominant as it was the last couple years, even without any major free-agency splashes. Houston should face some trouble from the Colts but still be able to take the division again, as well as a potential No. 1 seed in the AFC.

 

Since it’s already in flux, the loss of its two top receivers, and the cut of Robert Meachem, means that San Diego is likely going to be looking up at the Chiefs and Broncos this year. The defense should maintain its success, since the Chargers retained John Pagano, but there’s little chance San Diego will find the end zone much, even with Philip Rivers under the helm. Look for Houston to run away with this game.

Houston Texans: 31-17

 

Playoff picture (seeded 1-6 respectively):

 

NFC:

Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay Packers

Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks

New Orleans Saints

 

AFC:

Houston Texans

New England Patriots

Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts

 

Super Bowl:

Atlanta Falcons over

Denver Broncos