NFL Week 4 Predictions

Why am I sitting in Hodges Library at midnight, when I have no homework or tests to study for? I guess maybe I'm antisocial. Roommate -- who I don't really know, keep in mind -- turned 21 today, and decided he would just throw a party in our apartment in the middle of the week.

So, instead of trying to make small talk, which I don't like, with the 18 people in my apartment, who I don't know, I figured I would come here and share my thoughts with you peeps.

But I think I'm gonna shift gears this week. I've been writing about college football, basically becuase I'm too lazy to write four times a week, and college comes before pro football in the week, so I write about that, even though I love the NFL.

That’s gonna change this week, though. After my second straight horrible outing in our school newspaper’s college pick ‘ems, I need to prove something. So here’s my NFL preview for the week:

*One little note: I won’t be using current rankings on either side of the ball, simply because they fluctuate too much this early in the season. Until Week 6 or 7, you’ll simply be getting my analysis of the talent on each team.

**Double note (like a double rainbow, only much, much cooler): Don’t put too much stock into the scores. I just do those because I like to see where I land. The only stock I place in myself is the ability to call winners and losers. I’ll leave the scoring expertise to Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers:

I’m a little upset. I picked the 49ers to win the NFC West with ease under the guidance of Mike Singletary and Alex Smith. (More on my preseason predictions next post; I know, I got lazy. Familiar right?) Instead, the Red and Gold are adrift, sans offensive coordinator yet again, and they look like they’ll struggle to reach .500 this season.

That being said, the great thing about the NFL is that the talent range is so ridiculously narrow. Even Dan Orlovsky can outplay Peyton Manning sometimes. The Niners are due a win, the Falcons are coming off an emotional one, and honestly, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore are too good to be shut up for long, especially given the desperation this team has to be feeling right now.

49ers over Falcons, 20-17

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets:

Remember what I just said about the talent range being so narrow? Yeah, not applicable here. Right now, the Bills have a very good secondary, a (singular) very good playmaker and that’s about all. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an offensive spark, and I’m not sure releasing Trent Edwards just because he was no longer was a smart ploy, but it did come from Chan Gailey …

As much as I deplore the Jets’ arrogance – and the fact they’re from New York – they have way too much talent for this game to be an issue, even in Buffalo. Sanchez has weapons galore, a great safety valve in Dustin Keller, along with a pair of dynamic backs in Shonn Greene and Ladainian Tomlinson. Seriously, the man hasn’t lost even half a step. On the defensive side of the ball, don’t get me started. The Jets’ nickel package is one of the scariest concepts in football when Darelle Revis is healthy.

Jets over Bills: 28-13

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals:

The Bengals baffle me. This should not be a good team. They have a defense that really only slows down offenses, not stops them, and Carson Palmer just hasn’t been the same since his elbow bursitis a couple years ago. Cedric Benson is a workhorse, true, and the receiving corps is as good as ever, but it’s not an elite offense.

Also, I fail to see these “helpless” Browns the experts have been talking about. I see a Cleveland team that’s been in every game, even if it’s lost every game. Peyton Hillis seems to be a gem, and even with Delhomme’s injury, the Browns managed to snap the Ravens’ touchdown-less streak. The defense has been good-not-great, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Browns snap the Bengals inter-division win streak.

Browns over Bengals, 17-10

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions:

I love my Lions. I really do. And the best part is, this year I get to watch them – thanks for the Buffalo Wild Wings tip, Amber – plus, they’re actually fun to watch! They have a great receiving corps, Jahvid Best was a diamond in the rough, Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch are living up to expectations on the defensive line, and the secondary, though not good, is greatly improved.

Unfortunately, “greatly improved” doesn’t stop maybe the best passer in the game. Aaron Rodgers is scary good, and even without a consistent run game, the Lions won’t be able to focus enough on the pass to stop it. Along with that, no Lions quarterback is interception-proof, and Charles Woodson and Al Harris have an annoying nose for the ball.

Packers over Lions: 34-21

Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos:

I think the Broncos have one of the more underrated offenses in the country. Did you know Kyle Orton has thrown for well over 1,000 yards already? No? That’s because the Broncos can’t play defense, score when it matters or run the ball. It’s a problem. BUT, if you’re like me and have Orton on your fantasy team, it’s a sure 20 points every week.

OK, so that’s not exactly an upside to Broncos’ fans. In fact, there’s not really one. Broncos are crossing two timezones to play a ground-and-pound offense in a sold-out stadium. It’s hard to imagine anything favorable. Chris Johnson is a great bet for 200 yards this week, and you can expect the Titans to force at least two turnovers this week.

Titans over Broncos, 31-24

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks:

Like the Browns, the Rams have been eerily competitive so far this season. And by eerily competitive, I mean they smacked the Redskins around for four quarters last week. Strange stat of the year though: Since 2008, the Rams are 2-1 vs. the Skins, 2-30 vs. everyone else (thanks, Gregg Easterbrook). Bradford seems to have made this team competitive, but there’s only so long he can take a beating. Plus, the Rams don’t have a defense, whatever the final score read last week.

I like this game, because it’s a battle of the anomalies. The Seahawks smothered the Niners at home, got smashed by the Broncos on the road, then went back to their choking ways against Jacksonville at home. Truthfully, I don’t know what to think here. But Hasselbeck seems to be healthy and fresh, with a decent pass attack, and the Hawks have a very opportunistic defense/special teams. A team that doesn’t rush for a touchdown in three weeks can only go so long, but against the Rams, shouldn’t be a detriment.

Seahawks over Rams, 21-16

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers:

Poor Panthers. Nothing’s going right for them. Release Jake Delhomme and still get 10 turnovers in the first three games. Play an awful Giants team, a supposedly awful Bucs team, and still start the season 0-3. The run game is in shambles, and the defense looks anemic. Sorry guys, I don’t see a reason to pretend like this game will be close.

The Saints have Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey … and the list literally just keeps going. Add in the entire Saints defense, which seems pretty legitimate to me, along with a close loss the Saints have to feel they deserve back, and you have a recipe for a Carolina disaster.

Saints over Panthers, 34-17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens:

Could it be, the Steelers sans Roethlisberger are the best team in football? I think so. When Troy Polamalu came back from injury in 2009, I wondered if he wasn’t the reason the Steelers missed the playoffs. Now, I know for sure he is. Aside from an 85-yard Chris Johnson run in Week 2, this defense has given up absolutely nothing, and that, along with Charlie Batch’s acceptably accurate arm, has kept the Steelers at the top of the AFC standings.

Unfortunately, their last game before Big Ben returns is against the Ravens. Baltimore’s offense seems to have finally clicked last week, and even without Ray Rice – who really hasn’t done anything to impact games this season anyway – it will probably score points. Also, this defense may be the only one that can rival Pittsburgh’s in intensity. I suggest not watching this game unless you love defense or one of these teams.

Ravens over Steelers, 16-13

Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans:

I have to vent here. For the past two years, I’ve convinced my dad to play fantasy football. Both times, I’ve done his draft, and both times, he’s had the best team in the league coming out of the gates. Well, this year, one of his backs tore his ACL before the season started, so I told him to pick up Arian Foster or Darren McFadden, because they weren’t getting much attention. Well, somebody got smart and picked up Foster, so he went with McFadden, who’s wound up as one of the most consistent backs in the league this year. Honestly, if my dad weren’t family, I’d be irked by how much my advice has helped him.

That being said, McFadden plus Bruce Gradkowski plus Louis Murphy seem to have reignited an Oakland offense that’s been stagnant more than half of my lifetime. The defense has been playing well, especially in the secondary, for the second or third straight year.

Unfortunately, Matt Schaub may be the most underrated passer in the league when it comes to simply racking up pass yardage. No one finds seams in a secondary like Schaub, and no one is more likely to throw for 400+ yards. Add to this the fact that Foster is, as of right now, the league’s best rusher, and he’s going up against a notoriously weak front seven, and you’ve got a long night for Raiders’ fans.

Texans over Raiders, 28-14

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts:

Honestly, I can’t explain Jacksonville to you. Granted, the defense seems to have done nothing to shore up its weaknesses from last year, but the offense should be scoring more than 13 points per game. David Garrard didn’t have a great 2009 season, but it was definitely good; Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the league’s top backs, and the Jags seem to have finally found a receiving corps.

They should just take a look at the Colts. No one makes “fourth-round pick” or later seem as incredible.. Quick, name the four players to have caught a Peyton Manning touchdown pass. Need help after Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne? It’s Blair White, undrafted out of Michigan State. Pierre Garcon, Collie and White were all drafted fourth round or later in the last two years. The defense, yet again, is without Bob Sanders and an ability to stop the run, but Manning has never before needed a defense, and that’s not gonna change now.

Colts over Jaguars, 28-10

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins:

Eagles are hot, Redskins are not. Should be simple right? Eh, not so much. The Eagles should be able to trademark the word “playmaker” with DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and Michael Vick, and their defense has a disgusting ability to rack up five or six sacks in a game. There’s a reason I believe this team will make the postseason, even after clearing house during the offseason.

That being said, this is Donovan McNabb’s game. The way he plays makes or breaks this game. He can say all the right things, but there’s no way he’s not coming back to Philly without the intention of proving the Eagles franchise wrong. Plus, guess what the Redskins’ biggest issue on defense is? Line play! Guess what Vick does with astonishing regularity? Get sacked! No, seriously, the Skins’ linebacking corps is superb, their secondary is quite good, and their D-line – if only you had tried Haynesworth, if only – is good and could be one of the league’s best right now. Add to this that McNabb knows this team front and back, and you know Andy Reid is sweating this week out right now.

Redskins over Eagles, 21-10

San Diego Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals:

You know what’s absolutely hilarious? The fact that people actually picked the Cardinals as a “surprise” NFC West winner, and did it with a straight face. Unlike the Eagles, the Cards didn’t clear house to make room for new talent; they just cleared house. Gone are Antrel Rolle, Karlos Dansby, Anquan Boldin, Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart. A defense minus one of its biggest emotional leaders in the past three years (Dansby) plus an offense minus its Nos. 1 and 2 QBs over the past three years (Warner and Leinart) does not equal a playoff team, not does it equal a 1-3 team. Sorry, guys.

I won’t say much on the Chargers, because I’m pretty sure the Cards will get swept by even the Rams this year. But Philip Rivers should be able to settle down this week, Ryan Matthews will be back, and the Chargers’ D could sit down in the middle of the field and shut down the Cards.

Chargers over Cardinals, 24-7

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears:

It sucks to be the Bears right now. As in, this week only. Because they’re undefeated, everything’s going their way, and everyone is on the bandwagon. Devin Hester is back – for a limited time only – Cutler looks like he finally grew up, Urlacher is buying into Cutler, and Matt Forte is healthy, as is most of the Bears’ defense, Tommie Harris being an exception that I’m not sure I understand. So why does it suck? Hangover.

The Giants are desperate. They’ve been killed in their last two outings, and the Bears are coming off a short week that began with a grueling, physical game against the century-old rivals. Eli may not look any sharper than he has so far this year, but he has the best young receiving corps in the country, and Brandon Jacobs is going to make an already tired D-line suffer even more. Plus, the Giants really need to win at home, or they may all be in the unemployment line next week.

Giants over Bears, 21-17

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots:

Can someone wake the Patriots up please? It’s like they’re sleepwalking. Since putting up a 31-3 lead against the Bengals, the offense has barely been putting up enough points to survive. Also, since that outing, the defense can’t seem to give up less than 28 points (granted, the Bengals' points were essentially garbage).

I like the Dolphins here, but I don’t know if I like the Dolphins long term anymore. Their defense was dominant against shaky offenses, but when it was time to show up on primetime against a solid offense, they were nowhere to be found. Mark Sanchez should never throw for 250 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against a legitimate defense. I like Miami simply because I don’t like New England. I don’t see the Pats coming out of their stupor in Miami in a game the Dolphins have to see as a must-win if they want to assert their dominance in the AFC East.

Dolphins over Patriots, 24-21