Michael Sam's draft story wasn't the success it should've been

On Saturday, Michael Sam made sports history by becoming the first openly gay athlete taken in a professional sports draft, taken 249^th overall by the St. Louis Rams. While he’s not the first openly gay athlete (or even the second; before Jason Collins, there was Glenn Burke^1­), his draft is a milestone because teams knew about him going into the draft, whereas both Collins and Burke only officially came out after established careers in their respective leagues.

This is huge news. No longer do the headlines and pundits simply claim that America is ready for gay athletes, Sam’s draft line shows that, indeed, at least one team in one league is emphatically stating that it does not care about his sexual preference. But let’s get one thing straight before we jump on that bandwagon: This is not the most important storyline here.

Michael Sam was a stalwart for a lights-out Missouri defense, and he helped lead that team to an SEC championship in its second year of contention in the league. He was voted co-defensive player of the year in that league. He was, initially, projected to go as high as the third round². While there were other exemplary players who actually did go undrafted, like Tennessee’s Antonio Richardson (who had been an early second-round projection) and Texas’ Jordan Jeffcoat (who was the Big 12’s defensive player of the year), those players tended to have legitimate reasons for their slide: fears of injury.

When your skill set is either being huge or being fast, any kind of leg injury raises a huge red flag, and it’s completely understandable that these players slid out of the draft; it happens every year. However, for Sam, there was no such red flag. Instead, there was a rainbow flag. For all of Goodell’s praises for Sam earlier in the year and all the GM’s who followed suit, in reality, teams were scared to touch Sam. Scared of what might happen to their team if they brought a gay man into the most macho of locker rooms. So he slid. And he slid. Right down to the point where Missouri’s own St. Louis Rams burned their seventh-round pick, their Mr. Irrelevant, on Sam. And while I commend the Rams’ ownership and Jeff Fisher for making that move and for accepting the repercussions of what might come if they have to cut Sam, it’s clear that this was a PR move.

Sam is expected to make the transition to defensive end in the NFL, a position that the Rams absolutely did not need to fill. Drafting Aaron Donald in the first round stacked an already impressive line that featured the likes of Robert Quinn and Chris Long, and it’s incredibly unlikely that the Rams will have room for Sam, even if he turns out to be a major NFL talent, simply because the Rams’ defensive line might be the best in football. For that reason, the idea that the Rams would actually spend a pick, even in the last round, on a defensive end because they actually need to is silly.

So what we have now is a huge story about how America has finally come to terms with the idea of homosexuality, so much so that an openly gay man was drafted by the manliest of all American sports. And in the midst spreading that story, we ignore the fact that Sam slid four rounds in the draft and we have no clear explanation of why he did. Why would the defensive player of the year in college’s toughest league, who racked up 19 tackles-for-loss and 11.5 sacks against many future NFL offensive lineman, fall so far in the draft?

Poor combine? As if. Keeping in mind that Sam is a converted linebacker, his bench press was weaker than all but UCLA’s Cassius March for defensive linemen. How did March do? Why, he went in the fourth round to the Seahawks³, who might just have the best defensive scouts in the league. His 4.91-second 40-yard-dash? Faster than multiple defensive lineman who were taken on Saturday. On top of that, we’ve got history to go on. The last seven defensive players of the year for the SEC have been selected to the Pro Bowl a  combined 11 times and have been named first-team All-Pros eight times.⁴ The last DPOY drafted outside the first round? 2006, when Demeco Ryans slid all the way to the fourth round.⁵ He’s currently enjoying an extremely successful career with the Philadelphia Eagles.

All this goes to say that there is absolutely no reason for Sam to slide to the status of Mr. Irrelevant, and that should be the story we’re talking about here, not that the Rams actually did take them or that ESPN showed two men kissing on live TV. That a team objectively looked at drafting Sam from a PR standpoint and said, “This is a good move. We should do it,” is a victory of sorts. Twenty years ago, I highly doubt that any team would’ve made that move. But that was a step in the right direction; it doesn’t mean the race is over. And until a player of Sam’s caliber actually gets drafted at the position that he merits, professional sports still has at least one more hill to climb.

 

1-      http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/05/actually-jason-collins-isnt-the-first-openly-gay-man-in-a-major-pro-sport/275523/

2-      http://www.csnphilly.com/football-philadelphia-eagles/nfl-draft-prep-top-prospects-100-76

3-      http://blog.seattlepi.com/football/2014/05/10/seattle-seahawks-add-uclas-cassius-marsh-in-fourth-round-of-nfl-draft/

4-      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1971528-michael-sam-combine-results-and-instant-reaction

5-      http://www.ibtimes.com/gay-football-player-update-nfl-draft-prediction-defensive-end-michael-sam-1581807

2014 Draft - Round 1, Part 2

Miami Dolphins – Ju’Wuan James, OT – B

The linemen woes of the Dolphins has been well-documented over the past nine months, and as OT after OT began to fall off the board, you know Miami had to be a little worried. As a Vols’ alum, I can’t say I’m upset to see James go in the first round, but as an NFL fan, I have to say I’m a little confused. James wasn’t the best-graded OT left on the board, or even from the Vols’ squad (that would be Tiny Richardson). Obviously, the Dolphins graded him out differently and decided his raw talent outweighed the advantages of a more NFL-ready player like Richardson. And Miami didn’t really have a choice; it needed some offensive-line help, and there was clearly no guarantee that a decent lineman would’ve fallen to them had they traded back, given the mild surprises of Dallas and Tennessee going OL. However, I don’t think anyone had James going in the first round, and Miami jumped the gun just a bit here.

 

New Orleans Saints – Brandin Cooks, WR – A-

This was one of my favorite moves of the draft. The Saints gave up a lot to get Cooks, but I think Cooks was one of the more underrated receivers to go in the draft last night. You don’t catch more than 120 passes for more than 1,700 yards as a team’s only offensive threat if you aren’t an extremely talented route runner, which is exactly what the Saints need going for. The Darren Sproles era is over, and New Orleans’ featured backs are going to be much less pass savvy, while an aging Marques Colston could use a consistent slot guy to take some pressure off him. And obviously, the idea is to give opposing defenses nightmares when trying to game-plan for Cooks and Jimmy Graham next year. The one drawback to this pick was cost. The Saints gave up a third-round pick this year, which essentially means that Cooks has to start producing right away to be worth his value. I believe he will, but it’s nonetheless a serious gamble to take for a team that’s also reeling on the defensive side of the ball.

 

Green Bay Packers – Ha Ha Clindon-Dix, S – A

I don’t think things could have worked out more perfectly for the Packers in this year’s draft. One of the draft’s best safeties fell into their laps, while fellow NFC North contenders Detroit and Chicago both largely whiffed on their selections. Green Bay’s secondary needed this addition badly, and with the offseason signing of Julius Peppers, a unit that showed signs of progress before injuries set in could quickly become the NFC North’s nastiest.

 

Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel, QB – B+

K, I’m still not sold on Cleveland taking a QB in this round. I understand the appeal of first-round talent when your starting quarterback heading into training camp is coming off a nasty ACL tear, but given Brian Hoyer’s performance pre-injury last year, I personally would’ve taken a developmental project here instead of a guy who expects to start Day 1. That said, Manziel is a tremendous talent, potential off-field issues aside. He’s intelligent, hard-working and he absolutely does not quit on the field, which is something Cleveland fans need to see at this point. And Cleveland’s move to trade back up instead of sitting at 26 was, again, brilliant, considering that Minnesota leapfrogged the complacent Texans later in the round. Assuming Manziel can win the starting job, he’ll start Week 1 with arguably the best receiver in football, a top-five tight end and a potential top-10 running back surrounding him. A decent offensive line and a lockdown defense should help take the pressure off him and allow Cleveland to ease Manziel into success.

 

Kansas City Chiefs, Dee Ford, DE – A-

Kansas City got its fair share of flak for this pick, but I can see the benefits to it. They have, currently, the best running back in the game, and while they’re thin at wide receiver, Alex Smith showed he’s not just a flash in the pan, and you have to think Andy Reid and Co. were comfortable enough trusting him to focus on shoring up the defense. The concern for the Chiefs isn’t so much that they need starters; it’s that they need depth. When Brandon Flowers and Tamba Hali went down last year, opposing offenses had a field with KC. Ford gives Kansas City another threat to bookend a solid defensive line, so that even if the aging Hali goes down again this year, opponents won’t just breathe a sigh of relief.

 

Cincinnati Bengals, Darqueze Dennard, CB – A-

I have no idea how Dennard fell this far, but Cincinnati’s defense next year will be an absolute monster because of it. Dennard is an immediate starter who will line up with Terrance Newman, allowing Cinci’s other, still serviceable CBs to rotate in on nickel and dime packages. Add a scary front seven to the mix, along with an offense featuring AJ Green and Gio Bernard, and it’s hard to point out any glaring weaknesses that the Bengals will have next season.  

 

San Diego Chargers – Jason Verrett, CB – A-

The Chargers had to upgrade their secondary, so this was a logical pick. Verrett’s size is a huge issue, especially in a division that features Dwayne Bowe and Demaryius Thomas potentially lining up across from him, but when you’re picking 25^th, it’s hard to get choosy about how big the best remaining talent is. San Diego still has some kinks to work out in its secondary, but Verrett is a good step forward for them.

 

Philadelphia Eagles – Marcus Smith, LB – B

From what I’ve seen, it’s Smith’s versatility that Philly valued most with this pick, and his size (around 250 pounds) means he should be able to keep up with any assignment on the field. That said, Philly needs instant relief on a unit that struggled to shut down elite passers last year, and Smith is not exactly going to bulldoze through those sturdy offensive lines just yet.

 

Arizona Cardinals, Deone Bucannon, S – B-

So let me get this straight, Arizona. Tyronne Mathieu’s knee injury last season made you realize you needed depth in the secondary, so you settle for a round 2 talent that likes to hit people and put himself in harm’s way? I appreciate the need to ensure your secondary has no weaknesses, but Bucannon just doesn’t seem to have the talent the Cardinals wanted, especially given that Clinton-Dix was still on the board when Arizona traded back. Additionally, the Cardinals are the one team I would actually like to have seen take a running back in the first round. Granted, Carlos Hyde was the only real choice and few people saw him as a first-round pick, Bucannon wasn’t exactly high on the board either. With Rashard Mendenhall’s retirement and Bruce Arians’ hesitancy to utilize Andre Ellington full-time, the Cardinals need a heavy bruise to keep pressure off Carson Palmer.

 

Carolina Panthers, Kelvin Benjamin, WR – B-

It’s hard for me to give Carolina a good grade on this draft simply because of their body of work leading up to yesterday. The Panthers let every receiver on their team walk this year, including the venerable leader Steve Smith, and drafting Kelvin Benjamin, who I believe greatly benefited from sheer size and Jameis Winston, is supposed to assuage their fans’ doubts? Carolina had the tools to make a move up in the draft to grab a better receiver, or to make an effort to sign another one in free agency to take some pressure off this pick, but they did neither. And I can’t see how that bodes well for the Panthers moving forward. That said, Benjamin showed his capacity to make great plays last year, and if Carolina can work some pieces around him, this could be a very lucrative pick.

 

New England Patriots, Dominique Easley, DT – B

I have to say I’m somewhat surprised by this pick. The Patriots have a solid defensive core, but age and injury have started to cut into it, so drafting a defensive player was a necessity. However, drafting Easley, who’s had two major ACL surgeries, doesn’t exactly address their injury woes. The Patriots are renowned for their ability to make the most out of what they get, and if Easley had questionable character or unpolished skill, I would love this pick. But not even the great Bill Belichick can will away injury risks. Just ask Gronk.

 

San Francisco 49ers, Jimmie Ward, S – B+

The news that San Francisco has traded for Stevie Johnson has tempered my disappointment in this pick somewhat, but I still think Marqise Lee falling to them was a far better value. He would’ve been a tremendous threat almost immediately, and thanks to location, probably would’ve brought some more popularity to the team. That said, Ward brings serious range, versatility and depth to a defense that’s completely remade from its Super Bowl run, and with the departures and, um, “issues” with Aldon Smith, it makes sense that San Fran should shore up its defense.  Adding Johnson to the fold means the Niners have no legitimate weakness on offense either, so all in all, the Niners’ moves worked out about as well as possible.

 

Denver Broncos, Bradley Roby, CB – B+

If you watched the draft last night, even on mute, you could see the difference in opinion on Roby. One set of highlights showed off his coverage, range and big-hit abilities, while the next set showed blooper after blooper, with him getting hurdled, run over and simply whiffing on open-field tackles. But it’s undeniable that the talent is there. Roby was a fixture on a very good Ohio State defense for years, and the Broncos have had to find replacements for seemingly every position on defense, so it’s a sound gamble to make. Roby has some serious personality questions to answer for as well, and sending a known for his drug habits to Colorado seems like a huge risk, but with the locker room the Broncos have, it seems clear Denver believes it can mold him into a future face for their defense.

 

Minnesota Vikings, Teddy Bridgewater, QB – A+

As much as I liked New Orleans’ pick, this is far and away the best pick of the second-half of the Round 1. Much like Chicago earlier in the day, Houston sat back at the 33 spot, watching and hoping that nobody would jump in between Cleveland at 22 and them and steal Bridgewater. Minnesota, meanwhile, made every attempt possible to do just that. And now, instead of settling for a Derek Carr or Jimmy Garropolo that nobody can seem to come to a clear consensus on, they get Bridgewater at an absolute steal. Matt Cassel should be a serviceable veteran that can help show Bridgewater the ropes, but this pick should ensure that a Minnesota offense with two dynamic playmakers already will be able to contend with the rest of the NFC North’s electric offenses.

 

 

2014 Draft - Round One, Part One

The following is my report card on the first round (well, up to the Jets' 18th pick) of the 2014 NFL draft. I’m gonna preface this blog with two points:

1)      This is a stupidly talented draft class, and I think it will be hard for teams to actually make a bad decision this year. Even the Buffalo Bills’ dumping of draft picks to take Sammy Watkins I thought was a solid move.

2)      As the draft goes longer, I’ll admit my knowledge of teams’ needs begins to fall off. Much of the focus and prognostication this year has focused on the first 10 pickers, and because I don’t feel like paying to view the analysis on later teams (yet), my knowledge drops off after that point. That said, you should still read my opinion, because I like my opinions, so why shouldn’t you?

 

Houston Texans – Jadevon Clowney, DE – A

It’s hard to argue against the Clowney pick. Yes, you could at least argue for Manziel, but let’s be honest: Clowney is far and away the best athlete in this draft, and Romeo Crennel is just the kind of likable coach that can draw maximum effort out of a questionable work ethic. I still would’ve preferred to see Houston trade down, but this is still the best pick.

 

St. Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OT – A-

I’m still not sold on the Rams’ dire need to draft an OT so high. The last mock draft I saw had St. Louis taking two O-linemen in the first round, which is a stunning turnabout from Jeff Fisher, who’s never even taken a single O-lineman in the first round. The Rams had glaring issues on their line last season, so I won’t say this is a bad pick, but I think there was far more value in trying to play up the trade bait (assuming there were suitors).

 

Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB – A+

I love, love, love this pick. Not only is Bortles a much better option than Jacksonville’s previous gaffe (Blaine Gabbert), but it effectively dismantles every established mock draft out there right now, which, as a Lions fan who wants to see some value fall, I love to see. But for Jacksonville, the Jaguars need to sell tickets, and QB is the best way to do it. The pressure of taking Manziel had potential to cause issues, and Bortles is a local hero who seems to have a good head on his shoulders. Additionally, he doesn’t seem like one to break down if he’s forced to make plays on the run, which is very likely on an offense without a serious rushing threat.

 

Buffalo Bills – Sammy Watkins, WR – A-

Cleveland hasn’t made a move yet, and this draft is 12.5-percent old, but I already think the Browns made off like bandits. That said, Buffalo made the right move. Sammy Watkins is the clear-cut best WR in this draft, and as much as the Bills would’ve liked another decent tight end or a cheaper wide receiver, Watkins makes an immediate impact with little need to develop before he takes over the No. 1 slot. Given a defense that was held together with spit and glue last year but still managed to be one of the best turnover-forcing units in the game, Buffalo absolutely made the right choice here. The only knock is the payment to get him.

 

Oakland Raiders – Khalil Mack, LB – A

I’ll be honest, I’m not well-versed on all the Raiders’ needs (frankly, because there are a ton of them), but I am so glad they went with the greatest talent, rather than the greatest flash. Khalil Mack is a leader on the field, which is something the Raiders direly need, but he’s also the biggest talent left on the board, that honestly should’ve gone top 3. He’s not going to solve their offensive woes, which are numerous, but it seems they’re willing to take a chance on an aging Schaub-MJD tandem for now. Either way, well done by Oakland.

 

Atlanta Falcons – Jake Matthews, OT – A

Sometimes the smartest move is the easiest move. I would’ve liked to see Atlanta trade up for Clowney, but I think they made the right choice here. Atlanta has a whole host of issues, but the majority of them come down to depth, which is just not possible to address in the first round (unless you’re the Kevin Costner-led Cleveland Browns; see above). Atlanta desperately needs to plug up its holes on the line so Matt Ryan doesn’t have to survive another 2013-style campaign, so Matthews was the only option at this point.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans, WR – A

Exact same situation as Atlanta: They made the easy, smart pick. Mike Evans is a tremendous talent and a huge receiver that will give defenses nightmares when he lines up opposite VJax next season. Just like that, Tampa Bay has erased its QB uncertainty by putting so many weapons around Mike Glennon/Josh McCown, that they no longer need to risk another pick on a QB. It’s for this reason, not necessarily Evans’ pure talent, that I give the Bucs an A here. The defense will come, especially with Lovie Smith back on the sidelines. Now, the offense should be consistently there.

 

Cleveland Browns – Justin Gilbert, CB – A+

I love this new Cleveland front office. I absolutely love this move. Leading up to the draft, the consensus was that Minnesota would settle for defense in the first round, and take a QB in the second round, while Cleveland would use its high pick to take a tremendous defensive talent, and focus on QB later on. My guess here is that Minnesota faked like they were going to take Manziel/Bridgewater in order to bait Cleveland into moving up a spot. Cleveland called the bluff, believing Minnesota wanted Gilbert, not a quarterback early on, so gave up a fifth-round pick for that jump and simultaneously stealing Minnesota’s pick away from the Vikings. Beautifully done, Ray Farmer.

 

Minnesota Vikings – Anthony Barr, LB – B

Barr is a very good linebacker, but as Mel Kiper pointed out, he’s more of a work in progress. He’s not polished, and I honestly don’t think he would’ve been taken in the top 12. If Minnesota were willing to settle with Barr as their means of bulking up the defense in the first round, they should’ve gotten a couple more picks out of it.

 

Detroit Lions – Eric Ebron, TE – C

From what I’ve seen so far, I’m in the minority here, but I hate this pick by the Lions. For the third straight year, Detroit ignores glaring needs in its secondary to try to shore up on offense. Ebron, by all accounts, is a phenomenal talent at tight end, but he’ll either share time with Joseph Fauria (a fantastic red-zone target) or Brandon Pettigrew (a solid, but not great TE), or he’ll line up as WR opposite Megatron, which isn’t really a necessity coming out of the first round. (For the record, I hated the idea of trading up for Watkins or Evans as well). This is one of the deepest first rounds I’ve seen in terms of secondary talent, but there is no way another CB the likes of Darqueze Dannard falls to the second round. The Lions made a colossal error here.

 

Tennessee Titans – Taylor Lewan, OT – B+

Here’s the thing: I don’t hate this move, but I don’t love it, either. I’m giving it a B+ instead of a B or a B-, because the Titans desperately need OT help. Lewan’s ability to run block will be critical to the Titans’ success next year, and I completely understand Tennessee’s decision to pick up Lewan instead of potentially one of the falling quarterbacks or another of their glaring needs. Manziel is far more talented from a positional standpoint than Lewan, but if the Titans are comfortable riding with Locker for at least one more year, this was not a bad move.

 

New York Giants, Odell Beckham, Jr., WR – A

I think the Giants made the right decision here. Obviously New York, like so many teams before them, has more than a couple issues to overcome, but Beckham is exactly what that Giants’ offense needs (running back aside) to help get them back on track next year. Beckham has speed and quickness, a la Desean Jackson, which means that Eli Manning can rely on him to make some of his own plays when all else fails, and he’ll be an ample replacement for the struggling Hakeem Nicks. The only more glaring need the Giants had was running back, but given this draft class, it’s hard to justify any RB going this early.

 

St. Louis Rams, Aaron Donald, DT – A-

I don’t agree with Gruden’s assessment that this just became the best nickel pass-rush in football (Suh, Fairley and Ansah have a ways to fall first), but this absolutely makes the Rams’ defense a terror upfront. While I don’t think it was necessarily the biggest need, given Long and Quin’s established presences, but in a division where the Rams will have to stop Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick twice each for the foreseeable future, it was an absolute necessity. How it helps the Rams against the rest of the league remains to be seen, but in terms of challenging for their division, St. Louis made the best possible choice.

 

Chicago Bears, Kyle Fuller, CB – B

The Bears get docked here because they didn’t do enough to secure the Aaron Donald pick and they lost him. Fuller is a very, very good cornerback (only 22 passes attempted, only six completed against him last year). Assuming Charles Tillman can get healthy, this gives Chicago an absolutely lockdown secondary, but the loss of Donald and Julius Peppers in free agency means the Bears are going to have to invest in witchcraft to put enough pressure on quarterbacks to make those cornerbacks effective. Fuller’s talent gives Chicago a huge bump, but it’s not enough to call this a very good pick.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers, Ryan Shazier, OLB – A-

I like the Shazier pick. The Steelers’ defense has been teetering on the edge of old age for years, and last year it finally hit home. Pittsburgh made the right move by taking the best core defender left on the board, and as a speedy linebacker under Dick Lebeau, who’s noted for his ability to turn linebackers into All-Stars, Shazier is the best Pitt can do with one first-round pick to shore up this defense.

 

Dallas Cowboys, Zach Martin, OT – C+

Good on Jerry Jones for resisting the addiction (also, it’s hard to not mention the look on Manziel’s face when it happened), but I don’t think this pick was much better. Dallas has made few moves in the offseason to shore up one of the worst defenses the NFL has ever seen, and while a solid OT pick will help Tony Romo survive a few more seasons on a failing back, it does nothing to actually help Dallas win games this year, because they’ll be getting outscored by three a game instead of 10.

 

Baltimore Ravens, C.J. Mosley, ILB – B+

This is a solid pick by the Ravens, but I don’t necessarily think it’s their best pick – I believe Baltimore should’ve worked on shoring up its run game. That said, Mosley is a very good linebacker, and Baltimore could certainly use some help to fill the massive gap that Ray Lewis left on that defense. Additionally, as a defensive captain for the Crimson Tide, it’s hard to think that Mosley doesn’t have a good head on his shoulders, which the Ravens will want for their future mike.

 

New York Jets, Calvin Pryor, S – B-

Prior is a strong, good safety that will fit well into Rex Ryan’s defensive schemes, but again I have to ask: Does he proportionally improve the Jets’ defense as much as even a halfway decent wide receiver would improve the offense? I don’t think so. As ESPN’s draft team pointed out, there are going to be games on the Jets’ schedule where it will simply be impossible to stop the teams from scoring, and New York is no better off on that regard than it was 10 minutes ago.

NFL Predictions - Week 17

So I wasn’t gonna do picks this week, since the final week tends to be a crapshoot with a  bunch of benched starters, but then I realized: This week is gonna rock. So here’s some last seconds picks to, hopefully, make up for my forgetting about last week (whoops).

 

Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11):

Carolina Panthers: 17-14

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5):

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-14

 

Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9):

Tennessee Titans: 24-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5):

Indianapolis Colts: 27-17

 

New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7):

Miami Dolphins: 24-20

 

Detroit Lions (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1):

Minnesota Vikings: 31-24

 

Washington Redskins (3-12) at New York Giants (6-9):

New York Giants: 31-27

 

Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8):

Pittsburgh Steelers: 30-27

 

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7):

Green Bay Packers: 37-30

 

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11):

Denver Broncos: 38-24

 

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4):

New England Patriots: 27-13

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (10-5):

New Orleans Saints: 30-20

 

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5):

Arizona Cardinals: 23-17

 

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7):

San Diego Chargers: 30-23

 

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3):

Seattle Seahawks: 30-13

 

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-7):

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-28

 

NFL Predictions - Week 15

Last Week: 13-3

Overall: 132-75-1

 

Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10):

Washington can officially be classified as a dumpster fire now. Whether you believe the Shanahanigans going on are an attempt to save Mike’s job or actually a benevolent approach to preserve the future potential of this team, the current result is the same: This team’s season is over. Kirk Cousins will get the start, and he may even perform respectably in Griffin’s stead, but there’s little room for optimism in a win for this team. As bad as the Falcons have been this year – injury bug sucks when you have no depth – even a great showing by Cousins won’t hide the fact that the Skins simply can’t play defense. With the Falcons’ offense finally starting to heal up, look for Atlanta to put up numbers Washington simply can’t keep up with.

Atlanta Falcons: 34-28

 

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Brown (4-9):

This matchup is odd. Cleveland is a bit bipolar, getting blown out against Detroit, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the last two months, while losing squeakers against Kansas City, Jacksonville and New England. These Browns match up extremely well against a run defense that couldn’t stop a high school attack, and Josh Gordon is more than enough to shred any secondary at this point. However, what used to be a solid Browns defense simply hasn’t shown up since a Week 9 win against Baltimore. This game will come down to whether the Browns can force enough plays on defense to allow their offense to scrape a couple touchdowns together. With Jay Cutler’s return, and likely need to shake off the rust, it should be able to do exactly that.

Cleveland Browns: 27-24

 

Houston Texans (2-11) at Indianapolis Colts (8-5):

I don’t have exact numbers for this, but it seems that every time a talented, but winless, team loses its head coach, it tends to catch fire over the remaining weeks of the season, and Houston is nothing if not talented. With depth at almost every skill position on offense, Houston should have no problem’s scoring against an injury-ravaged Colts defense. However, the Andrew Luck factor against a terribly weakened Houston defense is likely going to be too great to overcome this week. TY Hilton destroyed the Texans defense last time these two teams met, and expect a similar result this time.

Indianapolis Colts: 23-20

 

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6):

The loss of Gronkowski is a devastating blow to the Patriots’ title hopes to be sure, and the change on Vegas odds reflects that (the spread was only 2.5 in favor of New England at the time of this). However, after Gronk went down Sunday, the Patriots figured out how to get its offense running through Shane Vereen, and with the re-emergence of Julian Edelman and LeGarette Blount, Tom Brady should have enough targets to prevent another shaky start this week. Miami, on the other side, is scoring points in bunches. Daniel Thomas came back from injury and promptly gashed the Steelers’ run D, while Mike Wallace and Charles Clay are starting expose opposing secondaries. The problem here is that Bill Belichick knows the Dolphins as well as anyone, and with a chance to seal the division on the line, it’s hard to see Joe Philbin outcoaching Belichick this week.

New England Patriots: 27-24

 

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1):

Obviously, no Adrian Peterson and a doubtful Toby Gerhart will have a huge impact on this Minnesota offense. However, with Matt Cassel under center, the Vikings have been able to move the ball consistently and make use of rookie weapon Cordarelle Patterson, something Minnesota will surely try to use much more this week to mask the loss of AD, and against a Philly defense that’s stout against the run but incredibly susceptible to the pass, it’s a recipe that could give the Eagles fits this week. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings seem to have quietly improved, holding the Bears to 20 points two weeks ago, then holding the Ravens to seven points in the first 57:55 of last week’s game. However, what Minnesota has been susceptible to is the big play, giving up two huge Alshon Jeffery TDs versus Chicago and too many plays to count at Baltimore. Philadelphia feasts on the big play, and Minnesota will have to find ways to cut those down if it wants a chance this game.

Philadelphia Eagles: 31-24

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8):

That the Giants have shown marked improvement in the second half of the season is something that’s hard to deny, but despite shaking off an 0-6 start, New York simply hasn’t been able to string together any sort of consistency, and that’s a weakness that’s going to exposed this week against the NFL’s model of consistency. The Seahawks defense has been ferocious these last few weeks and, hiccup at San Francisco aside, the offense has been nearly as good. The return of Andre Brown has allowed New York more flexibility on offense, but it won’t be enough to cut through Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks: 21-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9):

One of the hottest teams in the NFL the last month, the Buccaneers (you heard me) has been absolute monsters at home, beating a solid Miami team and destroying Atlanta and Buffalo. The next-man-up philosophy at running back has paid dividends, with Bobby Rainey seamlessly replacing Mike James a month ago, and Mike Glennon continues to show improvement, transitioning from a QB who could only use Vincent Jackson as a safety blanket, to one who’s been spreading the field evenly over the Bucs’ tear. However, as a trip to Carolina showed, this team isn’t set up yet to deal with the NFL’s top tier, which San Francisco belongs to. A middling run defense, coupled with a pretty bad pass defense, going up against Frank Gore and a Kaep attack who finally has all his weapons healthy, is a hard team to beat.

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

 

Buffalo Bills (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9):

Hilariously, the once-moribund Jaguars hold the longest win streak in the AFC, and no two 4-9 teams could ever look more different. Plagued by injuries, the Buffalo Bills just haven’t been able to find a rhythm this season, while the Jaguars under Chad Henne have finally managed to find a balanced attack, while the defense, still not good, has managed to stop looking dreadful, at least. Buffalo, for its part, now has a fully functional running game, which should keep the Bills alive this week, but with a defense that can only succeed by forcing turnovers, it’s unlikely the Bills will be able to create enough separation to win this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 24-20

 

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9):

The Chiefs defense woke up last week in a big way. A unit that had been ravaged in recent weeks by Denver and San Diego managed to thoroughly overwhelm Washington – who is struggling, granted – in almost every facet possible. Traveling to Oakland will be a slightly stiffer test, but Matt McGloin is not nearly the dynamic QB that Terrelle Pryor is, and the absence of Denarius Moore will continue to weaken this squad. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles should be nearly unstoppable this week against a middle-of-the-road defense that simply won’t be able to make the big plays necessary to slow the Chiefs down.

Kansas City Chiefs: 23-13

 

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4):

This is gonna get ugly. The Jets continue to hang around in the wildcard talk, but New York has been incapable of putting together a halfway decent performance on the road this year, and against a ferocious Panthers defense that’s coming off its worst loss of the season, I don’t see things looking up for New York. Look for the Panthers secondary and the Cam Newton passing attack to light up the scoreboard this week.

Carolina Panthers: 37-20

 

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6):

Somehow, the Packers are still in the playoff discussion, despite Aaron Rodgers’ return being pushed back week by week. However, a 1-4-1 record without him (and that win coming at home against the Falcons) don’t exactly speak wonders for Green Bay’s ability to keep up with Dallas this week. The Cowboys’ defense is atrocious, nearly as bad as the Saints were last year, but Matt Flynn simply has not been able to kickstart this offense. With Eddie Lacy at best a shadow of himself this week, even Dallas shouldn’t have too much trouble slowing down the Packers.

Dallas Cowboys: 31-21

 

Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8):

What’s been a hallmark under Mike Munchak’s tenure at Tennessee is that the Titans can beat the bad teams, can run with the good teams and they get hammered by the great teams. Arizona isn’t a great team, but it’s more than good, with a passing attack that’s been unstoppable the last few weeks and a defense that, on paper, looks as good as any in the league right now. Home-field advantage, an inability by the Cardinals to guard the tight end, and a mistake-free Ryan Fitzpatrick could give the Titans a chance to pull off the upset this week, but given this team’s inability to close out the fourth quarter, it’s unlikely.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-20

 

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8):

The Rams have, at times, looked like they could beat anyone in the NFL, and at other times have simply not shown up to the field. The emergence of Zac Stacy and Tavon Austin have more than made up for the loss of Sam Bradford earlier in the season, but the offense as a whole just has not been consistent this year. Additionally, the Rams’ young playmakers won’t have the experience to shake off the kinds of blitzes and packages Rob Ryan’s defense will have prepared heading into this week, and a Drew Brees-led offense that carved up one of the NFL’s best defenses last week will likely have no trouble going through a much weaker Rams defense.

New Orleans Saints: 34-24

 

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8):

Last year, the Bengals only had one real offensive threat: Throw it to AJ Green. This year, however, Andy Dalton’s steady improvement, combined with the dynamic play of Giovani Bernard and the rest of the Bengals’ receiving corps, has allowed Cinci to hang points on just about everyone (scoring 40+ in three of their last four wins), while a defense that’s suffered a couple of serious setbacks continues to shut down opponents (giving up 20 or fewer in five of its last games). Combine the two, and you have a Cincinnati team that has quietly moved into the NFL’s elite class, no small feat given the ferocity of the rivalries in this division. However, it’s that rivalry that could be a problem this week. Pittsburgh is on another two-game slump coming off a game that it had no right to win but really should have. The Steelers offense has been nearly unstoppable lately; it’s ironically the aging defense that has slowed this Steelers squad down. However, another primetime slot against a division rival with the remainder of its playoff hopes on the line should give Mike Tomlin all he needs to get this squad fired up this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 17-13

 

Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6):

Even though it seems like the Lions have stumbled their way into the class of the NFC North, somehow Detroit hasn’t managed to close out the division. A tiebreaker over Chicago and a half-game separate Detroit from first and third (and no playoffs). The blizzard in Philadelphia was somewhat of a fluke, something a dome team isn’t going to handle as well as a northern, outdoor team like Philly, especially with one of its best playmakers sidelined. Meanwhile, the Ravens have quietly assumed control of the AFC’s wild card race, winning four of five. The run game is still virtually nonexistent, but Joe Flacco and the defense have made the plays necessary to keep this team alive. The Lions’ offense has more than enough talent to blow the Ravens defense out of the water, and thanks to an offensive line that simply can’t create holes for Ray Rice, Detroit should easily be able to sit back and force the Ravens into a one-dimensional, passing attack. That said, this is a Lions team that’s struggled with discipline all season long and fails to get going until it absolutely needs to. The Lions should pull out the must-win this week, but look for Baltimore to keep it close.

Detroit Lions: 30-27

Chargers-Broncos Prediction - Week 15

San Diego Chargers (6-7) at Denver Broncos (11-2):

The last time these two met, the Broncos pulled out a squeaker by their standards, winning by eight in San Diego. In that game, the Chargers tried a different tactic versus the Broncos: running. They ran 35 times, averaging a mere 3.7 YPC, and allowed Denver to keep aerial threats Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates largely in check. This time, though, San Diego won’t have that luxury. Playing a division game in a  raucous Sports Authority Field means the Chargers will likely fall behind fast and trying to force the run against a Broncos defense that’s allowing just under 100 YPG is the kind of formula that might drop San Diego by four touchdowns, all but ending their season altogether. Philip Rivers has shown he’s up to the task, obliterating Kansas City on the road a couple weeks back, but a Chargers defense that allowed 300 yards and a couple touchdowns to Alex Smith is more than likely going to be completely incapable of slowing Peyton Manning down.

Denver Broncos: 45-34

NFL Predictions - Week 14

Last Week: 7-9

Overall: 119-72-1

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

Cincinnati Bengals: 24-17

 

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

Atlanta Falcons: 24-21

 

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

New England Patriots: 31-23

 

Oakland Raider (4-8) at New York Jet (5-7)

New York Jets: 20-17

 

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

Philadelphia Eagles: 27-24

 

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 24-13

 

Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 23-20

 

Kansas City Chief (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

Kansas City Chiefs: 31-28

 

Miami Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Baltimore Ravens: 28-13

 

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

Denver Broncos: 34-24

 

St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5)

Arizona Cardinals: 34-13

 

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

San Diego Chargers: 24-20

 

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

San Francisco 49ers: 20-17

 

Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3):

New Orleans Saints: 27-20

 

Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6):

Chicago Bears: 31-28