Week 7 Predictions - 2012

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3):

Tennessee Titans: 24-17

 

Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3):

Indianapolis Colts: 21-17

 

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (3-3):

Green Bay Packers: 31-23

 

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2):

Minnesota Vikings: 17-14

 

Washington Redskins (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2):

Washington Redskins: 31-27

 

New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3):

New Orleans Saints: 34-24

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4):

Carolina Panthers: 21-17

 

Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at Houston Texans (5-1):

Houston Texans: 24-17

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4):

Oakland Raiders: 27-20

 

New York Jets (3-3) at New England Patriots (3-3):

New England Patriots: 27-20

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3):

Pittsburgh Steelers: 24-20

 

Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1):

Chicago Bears: 31-23

Seahawks-49ers Prediction - Week 7

Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2):

I know I’m posting this a little late, but I forgot there was a game on (I guess that’s not really an excuse), so you’ll just have to take my word I haven’t seen anything. Both these defenses are great this year, but with anemic, one-dimensional offenses, there’s no way we’ll see an offensive explosion this week. That said, the Niners have the more solid defense, and I can’t see them dropping two in a row at home.

 

San Francisco 49ers: 17-13

Week 6 Predictions - 2012

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0):

After what we saw out of Oakland against Denver before the bye week, it’s hard to think this team has a chance to walk into Atlanta and knock off the Falcons, but anything can happen in the NFL … Just not this week.

The Falcons’ defense has sagged a little bit in recent weeks, and Matt Ryan has shown he’s not perfect, but with the reemergence of Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner, the Falcons shouldn’t have a problem extending their record to 6-0.

Atlanta Falcons: 24-13

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-5):

The Bengals were completely locked down at home against Miami last week, but I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button for them. The Dolphins have a good-and-getting-better defense, and Cincinnati’s offense has been clicking too well over the past month to be worried about one game.

That’s unfortunate for Cleveland, because as well as this team has been playing in recent weeks, I don’t think it will be enough to knock off a Bengals team that would have to have a second-straight letdown week. Browns keep it close, but Cincinnati will pull it out.

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-17

 

St. Louis Rams (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3):

If this matchup took place two years down the road, I’d think this would be one of the most highly anticipated of the season. St. Louis is quietly keeping pace with the Niners in the NFC West, working with an efficient offense – that has no elite athletes – and a very good defense – that doesn’t even have a defensive coordinator.

Miami, meanwhile, under offensive whiz Joe Philbin, is making waves with a solid defense of its own. With both secondaries tightening up against young quarterbacks, expect this one to come down to who runs the ball better, and I don’t think Stephen Jackson can outperform Reggie Bush.

Miami Dolphins: 16-14

 

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3):

Looks like I was just a little bit wrong on the Colts last week. Not only did Indy pull off the stunner against Green Bay, it did so after roaring back from a 21-3 deficit. It’s hard to do that against arguably the NFL’s best offense. But the Colts defense gave up few good looks in the second half, and Andrew Luck is playing with a poise that most rookies struggle to gain in their first season.

The Jets, meanwhile, looked like a different team against Houston on Monday night. Despite getting gashed by Arian Foster, New York managed to keep things close with great special teams plays and a solid performance from Mark Sanchez. That said, the Jets cannot run the ball, they can’t stop the run, and are inconsistent at best at QB. Look for the Colts to hit a two-game win streak for the first time in a long time.

Indianapolis Colts: 24-16

 

Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2):

The Lions are coming off a bye week and Matt Stafford should be fully healthy again. They’re gonna need both those things, because Philadelphia should give them fits. And if Stafford doesn’t throw it downfield more this week (I couldn’t name more than 10 30+-yard pass attempts this season), it’ll be hard for Calvin Johnson to be a game-changing factor again.

The Lions will get their turnovers against Michael Vick, but Vick’s mobility is going to give Detroit fits if the linebacking corps doesn’t step up. Additionally, this is a very good Eagles defense that should have no trouble containing the numerous receivers Detroit fields, as well as the Lions’ emerging run game. This will come down to how well Vick plays, and with his starting job becoming a question, Vick should step up and deliver.

Philadelphia Eagles: 30-24

 

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3):

Alright, I’ve gotta get on my soapbox here. Kansas City fans, you are classless. Regardless of how good or bad your starting quarterback is playing, odds are, he’s giving you the best he’s got. Boo him if you don’t like him, boo your team for being in a position to have to start him, but don’t cheer if he goes down. Any injury on the football field is a potentially life-altering injury, and it may end his career as a starter (if not his entire career). Plus, what athlete would want to give his all for a fanbase as cold and callous as that?

A better Bucs defense, and more well-rounded offense, takes this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 27-17

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1):

After watching the Ravens pull at a 9-6 win in a snoozefest at KC, I’m a little worried about what’s gonna happen against a real defense. The Cowboys have had two weeks to prepare for Baltimore’s new offensive look, but if Joe Flacco gives the same performance he put on last week, the Dallas D might just outscore the offense. For the Cowboys to win, Tony Romo has to be much more efficient, and DeMarco Murray has to be a little better at finding the holes he’s given.

For the Ravens, as usual, it comes down to how effective Ray Rice is. Despite being nearly unstoppable against the Chiefs, the Ravens couldn’t find the end zone.  Given the talented Cowboys secondary (first in the league), they’ve gotta rely more on Rice this week if they want to control this game. Baltimore pulls out a close one.

Baltimore Ravens: 16-14

 

Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1):

Welp, wheels have come off the track on this one. It’s amazing when Ryan Fitzpatrick can lead the league in touchdown passes through Week 4, and your team is still just about the worst 2-2 team ever. It’s embarrassing when even the offense isn’t clicking.

Given the Cardinals’ playmaking defense against Fitzpatrick’s tendency to throw interceptions, along with the absolutely horrendous Bills defense, the Cardinals shouldn’t need to worry about the lack of a run game. Bills won’t get embarrassed this time, but they won’t win either.

Arizona Cardinals: 24-17

 

New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2):

For a couple weeks, it looked like the New England dynasty was about to disappear overnight … but then the offense woke up again. It was good enough last year. With a dynamic back like Stevan Ridley, it’s scary good now.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are still trying to figure out what “good offense” is. Marshawn Lynch, amazingly enough, is still on pace for 1,600 yards, despite defenses lining up solely to stop him. What Seattle does have, though, is a great defense (I would really hate being a running back in the NFC West, by the way.), and that should be the theme this week. The Seahawks will follow the Cardinals’ template against New England, but this time, the Patriots defense makes enough plays to win.

New England Patriots: 16-13

 

New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1):

Unstoppable force, meet immovable object. If you watch one game this week, this one needs to be it. Despite a slow start for New York last week, the Giants still hung 41 points on Cleveland, and Ahmad Bradshaw looked as good as he has in years. Eli Manning showed that he can do what Peyton does and make ordinary receivers seem great, week in and week out. The defense, though, has been spotty up to this point, allowing games that should have been blowouts (Tampa Bay, Cleveland) to turn, instead, into shootouts.

The Niners, meanwhile, only set a franchise record in total yards, and became the first team in NFL history to rush and pass for 300 yards in the same game, last week. Oh, and they happen to have the NFL’s best defense, one that has given up one rushing touchdown in two seasons. As well as the Giants’ offense has been playing lately, it’ll come down to whether the defense can stop Alex Smith and Co., and I don’t think they will.

San Francisco 49ers: 27-20

 

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3):

I know I’m harping on this, but I refuse to buy stock in this Vikings team. Percy Harvin is incredible. Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen are great. And that’s all, folks. The Vikings feature a serviceable defense with great run-stopping ability that has been lucky enough to face two flimsy passing attacks in recent weeks. Christian Ponder is a legitimate NFL quarterback, but if Harvin gets shut down or has another migraine episode, all of a sudden, this offense becomes one-dimensional.

Speaking of head problems, boy did Washington get lucky last week. Robert Griffin III only suffered a mild concussion last week and will get to start this week. That’s great for the ‘Skins, because without Griffin, odds are the Vikings would easily be able to take Alfred Morris out of the equation. Washington’s defense played passably well for a half last week against the Falcons, and if they can do that again this week, Washington should walk out with a .500 record.

Washington Redskins: 28-24

 

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0):

This season is just not going the Packers way. First, Green Bay was jilted by arguably the worst call made by the replacement refs, and now, they had the misfortune of stumbling into Indianapolis when the Colts had about all the motivation they could possibly muster. Now they walk into the home of the NFL’s best, with a now-hurting run game and a shaky defense.

Houston, of course, no longer looks invincible. The Jets showed how meaningful statistic anomalies are in the NFL, when they took Matt Schaub’s 20-point margin of victory over the last two seasons and forced it down to six. That said, Houston’s offense is as well-balanced as you’ll find, with talented weapons to hit every level of Green Bay’s defense. The Texans’ defense, meanwhile, will give up its points to Aaron Rodgers, but they’ll be few and far between.

Houston Texans: 27-21

 

Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2):

You know, if the scores were reset at the beginning of the fourth quarter, Denver would have a ridiculous margin of victory. The defense is lockdown and Peyton Manning is simply unstoppable – although his teammates and their fumbles do a lot to work against him. That said, if this team is going to make a run at the division, both sides have to come out of the gates firing, and that has to start now.

San Diego, meanwhile, is like Denver looking in a mirror. The Chargers like scoring early and then just sit back in the second half, it seems (or for both halves, if it’s against Atlanta). Ryan Mathews seems to have hit his groove, and if Philip Rivers can get back to 2009ish form, the Chargers will be able to put this one away. However, this is one that Denver has to have, and Manning tends to take what he wants in these situations.

Denver Broncos: 31-27

 

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 46-31-0

 

Steelers-Titans Prediction - Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4):

The Steelers pulled off a close win against Philly last week, but it came at a huge cost. Lamar Woodley and Troy Polamalu are both out against the Titans tonight. Of course, Rashard Mendenhall is back in the lineup as the starting running back, giving the Steelers a fairly complete offense. And against only the second team to allow 30+ points per game through the season’s first five, a complete offense is what Pittsburgh wants right now.

As for the Titans, I’m starting to understand why they were so hasty to name Jake Locker the starting QB. A decent (at best) Vikings secondary managed to hold Matt Hasselbeck to less than 100 yards for most of the game before allowing a touchdown and a couple hundred yards in what was essentially garbage time. Chris Johnson, yet again, couldn’t get a rhythm going, but as bad as that all is, it’s nothing compared to a completely inept defense. The Titans lost a couple players in the offseason, but there’s no evidence it was going to mean a historically bad lineup. The Titans better hope Locker gets better fast, because there’s nothing coming back for the other side of the ball.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 27-17

Week 5 Predictions - 2012

Well, I’m not off to a good start this week. I knew full well the Cardinals weren’t really an undefeated team, and I went ahead and picked them anyway. To make matters worse, I put the Rams’ record down wrong. (They were 2-2 at the time, not 1-3.) I think I’m just gonna ignore that game for the time being.

Not really a whole lot in terms of storylines going on in the NFL this week. The Dolphins are doing what the Dolphins do (scare people, then lose), and Brady and Manning are back for yet another epic duel. A couple of things to note, though: The Titans have finally finished their murderers row. They’re a very bad-looking 1-3 coming off the first month, but only the W-L record matters. The Saints are still losing, the Bills missed out on their chance to capitalize on a couple of early wins, and the Jets have proven to everyone that they just don’t want to be good. And with that, it’s off to Week 5 we go.

 

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1):

The Dolphins have the feel of a much-improving team. They have the No. 1 rush defense in the league (56 YPG – Yikes), arguably one of the better backs in the league in Reggie Bush, and Ryan Tannehill is showing he knows where to put the ball. They have got to be able to start winning close games, though.

The Bengals have been racking up the wins in recent weeks, but I still can’t get over that shellacking they took in Week 1 to Baltimore at home. Cincy has one of the best offenses in the league, but the defense is letting everyone stay in it. Look for the Dolphins to finally pull out a close one here.

Miami Dolphins: 23-20

 

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2):

Even when Aaron Rodgers goes off this year, he doesn’t really look like the Rodgers of old. He’s on pace for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, which isn’t “only” territory, but it comes pretty close for him. That said, this is still one of the better offenses in the league, and the defense, Week 4 aside, has performed pretty well, especially on the road.

I hate to say it, but I can’t see Indy improving for a while. Sean Payton’s exile only serves to cement my belief in the value of a good head coach in the NFL, and when something like leukemia is the cause of Chuck Pagano stepping away, it will certainly add to the stress of the organization. I think the Colts will have a little more on their minds than they’re ready for this week.

Green Bay Packers: 30-23

Best wishes to Chuck Pagano and his family during this time.

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3):

This whole Flacco thing has gotta be great for Ravens fans. Through the air or on the ground, Baltimore’s defense looks plain unstoppable right now, which is great, because the defense would have nothing if it weren’t a bunch of playmakers. Even without Suggs, that pass rush has to step up, or it won’t be long before Baltimore is giving up more yards through the air than it can gain back.

I’m still trying to figure out what, exactly, is making KC such a bad team, and I have to come back to coach Romeo Crennel. Cassel hasn’t been great, but Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are very good playmakers, yet the offense can’t seem to score. The defense is loaded with talent at every level, and yet it can’t stop the scoring. Maybe things will start to gel as the season progresses, but a team that hasn’t led for a single second this season, it’s not going to come fast enough.

Baltimore Ravens: 31-20

 

Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2):

You know, the Browns are weird. They rank in the bottom half of the league in almost every statistical category – offense and defense – and yet are 0-4, with no loss by more than 10 points. It makes me think that, while this team is not a great team, it is a smart team that, with some experience under the youths’ belts, will become a player in the AFC North.

The Giants are a silly mistake away from being 3-1. Kudos to Tom Coughlin for taking the blame on last week’s game (saying that he should’ve placed the ball in Eli’s hands, rather than playing for the field goal), but it wasn’t him that drew the offensive pass interference. Lawrence Tynes is one of the best kickers in the league, and a 44-yard field goal was all but a guarantee. Don’t look for the Giants to let themselves be caught in the same situation twice.

New York Giants: 27-21

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2):

What a day for Michael Vick. His first non-four-turnover game of the season! And what did it get him? A lucky escape in Philly. This team is arguably the most talented in the NFL, and the numbers show it (projected 4,500-yard passer, 1,500-yard rusher, two 1,300-yard receivers), but this team can’t seem to get off the ground.

Pittsburgh meanwhile, has been struggling to make do with just about nothing. That will change this week, as Troy Polamalu, James Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall all return from injury. If Pitt can get the running game re-established, the Steelers still have time to make a run at the playoffs, but it’s gonna take more than a week to get Mendenhall back into the mix.

Philadelphia Eagles: 21-17

 

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2):

Looks like I’m gonna have to admit that what I thought were a bunch of old playmakers, plus Matt Ryan, seems to still be a legitimate offensive threat. Michael Turner has his step back and Roddy White seems to have just gained another step. The Falcons’ defense, at last, doesn’t seem unstoppable anymore, as Cam Newton seemed to find every hole possible in the line last week. The offense has to keep up its ridiculous scoring rate this week, or it’s going to put itself in the exact same situation again.

Everyone keeps saying RGIII is going to have a let-down game, and everyone keeps getting proven wrong. His numbers through the air are good-not-great, but his legs, along with rookie teammate Alfred Morris, are enough to give Washington a shot against any given team each week. If RGIII can follow the blueprint laid out by Newton, he should have no problem leading Washington to an upset of the Falcons this week.

Washington Redskins: 31-27

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3):

This should be fun. Dynamic defense meets dynamic offense. The ‘Hawks defense has held serve every game this season, but the offense has broken 20 only once and was lucky to even find itself in game-winning position against the Packers in Week 3. Marshawn Lynch is as good as ever, but Russell Wilson has to start finding his receivers.

The Panthers are completely on the other side of the spectrum, with an offense that seems to substitute a lead rusher every week and nearly interchangeable receivers, and a porous defense that can’t seem to plug a hole. The Seahawks’ defense should keep this one close, but ultimately, Cam will outduel Wilson.

Carolina Panthers: 21-17

 

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3):

That win at Minnesota has to feel like a loooooooong time ago for Jacksonville fans. This is a bad, bad, bad team that doesn’t seem to be getting any better. Chicago’s defense should have fun this weke.

Chicago Bears: 31-17

 

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1):

What I did have was the Titans at 1-3 at this point. What I did not have was just how badly they looked while doing so. They’ve been hammered in every loss and managed to give up 14 points in the final :32 of regulation before holding on for the win against a very mediocre Detroit team. That said, Matt Hasselbeck has had a game to shake off the rust, Chris Johnson and the O-line finally seem to be making plays, and the Titans just love playing NFC North opponents.

I still can’t say Minnesota is legit. The defense held Detroit to 13 points last week, but that was not the same Lions offense as last year. Additionally, Minnesota managed to score a whopping 6 points on offense. If it weren’t for great returns all game long, the Vikings would likely have been in the single digits. They may be lucky enough to escape Tennessee’s porous defense, but I doubt it.

Tennessee Titans: 23-17

 

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2):

And they’re back. You can thank Tim Tebow for this matchup – since I know you guys are tired of not hearing about him. His magical run to the playoffs last season sealed this matchup and brought back the best matchup in the NFL after a year-long hiatus. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady both field seemingly equal, seemingly unstoppable offenses right now, with heavy, run-stopping defenses. While Willis McGahee went off against Oakland last week, the Patriots’ defense seems to be much more balanced this year, and that will be invaluable in this matchup, as both defenses will be focused on stopping the pass, first and foremost.

New England Patriots: 28-24

 

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1):

The Bills didn’t have the easiest first-quarter schedule, but they certainly had to be 3-1 if they wanted to make a run at the AFC East title. Getting shell-shocked at home by the Patriots (giving up an NFL-record 45 second-half points) was not the way to do it. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both back, though, which means Buffalo should be able to keep up with anybody in the coming weeks, but its big free-agency signing, Mario Williams, has to show up if Buffalo hopes to stop anyone. This defense revolves too much around Williams for him to be the no-show he’s been all season.

As for the 49ers, we all saw the Jets score. Granted, the Jets’ offense is anemic, San Francisco managed to put a completely solid game together from every side of the ball. If that’s the team that shows up against Buffalo this week, this game won’t be close.

San Francisco 49ers: 23-14

 

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4):

You know, what was supposed to be a menacing schedule for San Diego has turned into a fairly soft one. The home beatdown by the Falcons aside, San Diego has simply outclassed its opponents, and now it gets an extremely downtrodden Saints team that has yet to win its first game. Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews have both had horrible starts to the season, but that will change arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

While the Saints are 0-4, they’ve gotta feel good about going in Green Bay and nearly stealing one. Drew Brees looks like he’s back to form and Marques Colston’s return to health gives this offense its old, wide-open look. The defense, however … Wow. Steve Spagnuolo was considered a genius in New York, but he’s had little to show for his work so far this season. Granted, most of the teams the Saints have faced have been some of the NFL’s best offenses to date, but that’s not gonna change for the rest of the season, certainly not this week. That said, if Brees looks as good as he did last week, it’ll be enough to carry a desperate New Orleans at home

New Orleans Saints: 27-24

 

Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2):

Here’s two things you need to know:

1) When Matt Schaub is healthy over the last two years, the Texans win by an average of 20 points per game. That is un-freaking-fathomable. This is what a complete team looks like.

2) The Jets gave up 34 points to a mediocre-at-best Niners offense. At home.

This will not be pretty.

Houston Texans: 31-7

Cardinals-Rams Prediction -- Week 5

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Cardinals (1-3):

I’ve said all along that the Cardinals were legit playoff contenders. But this 4-0 run is impressive, especially given the way they pulled out the win last week. (OK, they did get a lot of help from the Dolphins.) The defense isn’t spectacular, but it has made some spectacular plays when necessary, and that’s about all it needs to do; just ask the ’09 Saints. That said, the offense is still a little shaky. Kevin Kolb is looking progressively better, but the loss of Beanie Wells will hurt in the coming weeks.

 

The Rams, meanwhile, aren’t exactly a pushover either. A solid defense, with a very good secondary, has kept Jeff Fisher and his crew in games that St. Louis wasn’t close to contending in last year. Sam Bradford and Danny Amendola are redeveloping the chemistry they seemed to have lost last year, and if Stephen Jackson can get back to form, this team can be a dangerous opponent for playoff hopefuls along the way. Just don’t expect the Rams to start off division play at 2-0.

 

Arizona Cardinals: 21-13

Week 4 Predictions - 2012

No explanations this week. Crappy Internet and lots of drive time mean no writing time.

 

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0):

Atlanta Falcons: 31-30

 

New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1):

New England Patriots: 34-24

 

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Detroit Lions (1-2):

Detroit Lions: 34-20

 

San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2):

San Diego Chargers: 21-20

 

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-2):

St. Louis Rams: 17-13

 

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1):

San Francisco 49ers: 24-10

 

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (3-0):

Houston Texans: 27-20

 

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Denver Broncos (1-2):

Denver Broncos: 34-23

 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0):

Arizona Cardinals: 17-14

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2):

Cincinnati Bengals: 31-24

 

New Orleans Saints (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (1-2):

Green Bay Packers: 42-30

 

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2):

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24-20

 

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1):

Philadelphia Eagles: 27-23

 

Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1):

Dallas Cowboys: 20-17

 

Last Week: 5-11

Overall: 26-22-0