Week 5 Predictions - 2012

Well, I’m not off to a good start this week. I knew full well the Cardinals weren’t really an undefeated team, and I went ahead and picked them anyway. To make matters worse, I put the Rams’ record down wrong. (They were 2-2 at the time, not 1-3.) I think I’m just gonna ignore that game for the time being.

Not really a whole lot in terms of storylines going on in the NFL this week. The Dolphins are doing what the Dolphins do (scare people, then lose), and Brady and Manning are back for yet another epic duel. A couple of things to note, though: The Titans have finally finished their murderers row. They’re a very bad-looking 1-3 coming off the first month, but only the W-L record matters. The Saints are still losing, the Bills missed out on their chance to capitalize on a couple of early wins, and the Jets have proven to everyone that they just don’t want to be good. And with that, it’s off to Week 5 we go.

 

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1):

The Dolphins have the feel of a much-improving team. They have the No. 1 rush defense in the league (56 YPG – Yikes), arguably one of the better backs in the league in Reggie Bush, and Ryan Tannehill is showing he knows where to put the ball. They have got to be able to start winning close games, though.

The Bengals have been racking up the wins in recent weeks, but I still can’t get over that shellacking they took in Week 1 to Baltimore at home. Cincy has one of the best offenses in the league, but the defense is letting everyone stay in it. Look for the Dolphins to finally pull out a close one here.

Miami Dolphins: 23-20

 

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2):

Even when Aaron Rodgers goes off this year, he doesn’t really look like the Rodgers of old. He’s on pace for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, which isn’t “only” territory, but it comes pretty close for him. That said, this is still one of the better offenses in the league, and the defense, Week 4 aside, has performed pretty well, especially on the road.

I hate to say it, but I can’t see Indy improving for a while. Sean Payton’s exile only serves to cement my belief in the value of a good head coach in the NFL, and when something like leukemia is the cause of Chuck Pagano stepping away, it will certainly add to the stress of the organization. I think the Colts will have a little more on their minds than they’re ready for this week.

Green Bay Packers: 30-23

Best wishes to Chuck Pagano and his family during this time.

 

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3):

This whole Flacco thing has gotta be great for Ravens fans. Through the air or on the ground, Baltimore’s defense looks plain unstoppable right now, which is great, because the defense would have nothing if it weren’t a bunch of playmakers. Even without Suggs, that pass rush has to step up, or it won’t be long before Baltimore is giving up more yards through the air than it can gain back.

I’m still trying to figure out what, exactly, is making KC such a bad team, and I have to come back to coach Romeo Crennel. Cassel hasn’t been great, but Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are very good playmakers, yet the offense can’t seem to score. The defense is loaded with talent at every level, and yet it can’t stop the scoring. Maybe things will start to gel as the season progresses, but a team that hasn’t led for a single second this season, it’s not going to come fast enough.

Baltimore Ravens: 31-20

 

Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2):

You know, the Browns are weird. They rank in the bottom half of the league in almost every statistical category – offense and defense – and yet are 0-4, with no loss by more than 10 points. It makes me think that, while this team is not a great team, it is a smart team that, with some experience under the youths’ belts, will become a player in the AFC North.

The Giants are a silly mistake away from being 3-1. Kudos to Tom Coughlin for taking the blame on last week’s game (saying that he should’ve placed the ball in Eli’s hands, rather than playing for the field goal), but it wasn’t him that drew the offensive pass interference. Lawrence Tynes is one of the best kickers in the league, and a 44-yard field goal was all but a guarantee. Don’t look for the Giants to let themselves be caught in the same situation twice.

New York Giants: 27-21

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2):

What a day for Michael Vick. His first non-four-turnover game of the season! And what did it get him? A lucky escape in Philly. This team is arguably the most talented in the NFL, and the numbers show it (projected 4,500-yard passer, 1,500-yard rusher, two 1,300-yard receivers), but this team can’t seem to get off the ground.

Pittsburgh meanwhile, has been struggling to make do with just about nothing. That will change this week, as Troy Polamalu, James Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall all return from injury. If Pitt can get the running game re-established, the Steelers still have time to make a run at the playoffs, but it’s gonna take more than a week to get Mendenhall back into the mix.

Philadelphia Eagles: 21-17

 

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2):

Looks like I’m gonna have to admit that what I thought were a bunch of old playmakers, plus Matt Ryan, seems to still be a legitimate offensive threat. Michael Turner has his step back and Roddy White seems to have just gained another step. The Falcons’ defense, at last, doesn’t seem unstoppable anymore, as Cam Newton seemed to find every hole possible in the line last week. The offense has to keep up its ridiculous scoring rate this week, or it’s going to put itself in the exact same situation again.

Everyone keeps saying RGIII is going to have a let-down game, and everyone keeps getting proven wrong. His numbers through the air are good-not-great, but his legs, along with rookie teammate Alfred Morris, are enough to give Washington a shot against any given team each week. If RGIII can follow the blueprint laid out by Newton, he should have no problem leading Washington to an upset of the Falcons this week.

Washington Redskins: 31-27

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3):

This should be fun. Dynamic defense meets dynamic offense. The ‘Hawks defense has held serve every game this season, but the offense has broken 20 only once and was lucky to even find itself in game-winning position against the Packers in Week 3. Marshawn Lynch is as good as ever, but Russell Wilson has to start finding his receivers.

The Panthers are completely on the other side of the spectrum, with an offense that seems to substitute a lead rusher every week and nearly interchangeable receivers, and a porous defense that can’t seem to plug a hole. The Seahawks’ defense should keep this one close, but ultimately, Cam will outduel Wilson.

Carolina Panthers: 21-17

 

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3):

That win at Minnesota has to feel like a loooooooong time ago for Jacksonville fans. This is a bad, bad, bad team that doesn’t seem to be getting any better. Chicago’s defense should have fun this weke.

Chicago Bears: 31-17

 

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1):

What I did have was the Titans at 1-3 at this point. What I did not have was just how badly they looked while doing so. They’ve been hammered in every loss and managed to give up 14 points in the final :32 of regulation before holding on for the win against a very mediocre Detroit team. That said, Matt Hasselbeck has had a game to shake off the rust, Chris Johnson and the O-line finally seem to be making plays, and the Titans just love playing NFC North opponents.

I still can’t say Minnesota is legit. The defense held Detroit to 13 points last week, but that was not the same Lions offense as last year. Additionally, Minnesota managed to score a whopping 6 points on offense. If it weren’t for great returns all game long, the Vikings would likely have been in the single digits. They may be lucky enough to escape Tennessee’s porous defense, but I doubt it.

Tennessee Titans: 23-17

 

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2):

And they’re back. You can thank Tim Tebow for this matchup – since I know you guys are tired of not hearing about him. His magical run to the playoffs last season sealed this matchup and brought back the best matchup in the NFL after a year-long hiatus. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady both field seemingly equal, seemingly unstoppable offenses right now, with heavy, run-stopping defenses. While Willis McGahee went off against Oakland last week, the Patriots’ defense seems to be much more balanced this year, and that will be invaluable in this matchup, as both defenses will be focused on stopping the pass, first and foremost.

New England Patriots: 28-24

 

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1):

The Bills didn’t have the easiest first-quarter schedule, but they certainly had to be 3-1 if they wanted to make a run at the AFC East title. Getting shell-shocked at home by the Patriots (giving up an NFL-record 45 second-half points) was not the way to do it. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both back, though, which means Buffalo should be able to keep up with anybody in the coming weeks, but its big free-agency signing, Mario Williams, has to show up if Buffalo hopes to stop anyone. This defense revolves too much around Williams for him to be the no-show he’s been all season.

As for the 49ers, we all saw the Jets score. Granted, the Jets’ offense is anemic, San Francisco managed to put a completely solid game together from every side of the ball. If that’s the team that shows up against Buffalo this week, this game won’t be close.

San Francisco 49ers: 23-14

 

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4):

You know, what was supposed to be a menacing schedule for San Diego has turned into a fairly soft one. The home beatdown by the Falcons aside, San Diego has simply outclassed its opponents, and now it gets an extremely downtrodden Saints team that has yet to win its first game. Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews have both had horrible starts to the season, but that will change arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

While the Saints are 0-4, they’ve gotta feel good about going in Green Bay and nearly stealing one. Drew Brees looks like he’s back to form and Marques Colston’s return to health gives this offense its old, wide-open look. The defense, however … Wow. Steve Spagnuolo was considered a genius in New York, but he’s had little to show for his work so far this season. Granted, most of the teams the Saints have faced have been some of the NFL’s best offenses to date, but that’s not gonna change for the rest of the season, certainly not this week. That said, if Brees looks as good as he did last week, it’ll be enough to carry a desperate New Orleans at home

New Orleans Saints: 27-24

 

Houston Texans (4-0) at New York Jets (2-2):

Here’s two things you need to know:

1) When Matt Schaub is healthy over the last two years, the Texans win by an average of 20 points per game. That is un-freaking-fathomable. This is what a complete team looks like.

2) The Jets gave up 34 points to a mediocre-at-best Niners offense. At home.

This will not be pretty.

Houston Texans: 31-7