Week 12 Predictions - 2012

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3):

Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature. He’s not human. He can’t be. Nobody comes back from an ACL tear in less than a year, and nobody has their best season coming off of one. That said, as Peterson’s production goes up, the Vikings continue to lose. The biggest issue here is obviously Christian Ponder’s struggles, especially with Percy Harvin dealing with injuries lately, but at the same time, it seems almost as though opposing teams will give up the run if only to shut down Minnesota’s passing attack.

Also, did anybody see the latest news on the Bears offensive line? Chilo Rachal, signed to a one-year deal this offseason, got demoted this week. His response? To talk out on the team in a huff. Turns out teams don’t like that, and he’s been relegated to the non-injured reserve list. This is just a situation that gets worse and worse for the Bears. That said, this defense got its one bad game of the season out of the way, Chicago is back home, and Adrian Peterson is due for a bad game. Bears take this one.

Chicago Bears: 27-20

 

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5):

What is all this talk about Carson Palmer being a bust? The man has thrown for 3,000 yards in 10 games. Three thousand freaking yards. He’s on pace for 4,900 yards and 27 touchdowns. Do you know who throws for 4,900 yards and 27 touchdowns? Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. And I can guarantee that the Saints, Broncos or Patriots wouldn’t dream of trading those guys off for a couple of first-round picks. The Raiders’ problems are not Palmer’s fault. That said, the Raiders still have a lot of problems.

And of course, Palmer will be going up against the team that traded him. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has become a legitimate starting running back in recent weeks, and AJ Green has simply electrified the league this season, and he’s set to go off against a porous Raiders defense again this week. Of course, even if the Raiders manage to shut down the two Greens, Mohammad Sanu and Andrew Hawkins give Dalton way too many options to shut him down completely

Cincinnati Bengals: 30-24

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns(2-8):

I’m a little torn on the Steelers right now. On the defensive side, it seems like Pitt can just plug-and-play all day, regardless of the age or name of its defenders. On the offensive side, not only is Ben Roethlisberger out, his backup, Byron Leftwich is now out, too, leaving Charlie Batch under center with no legitimate backup and without a starting receiver in Antonio Brown. But of course, the Steelers’ three-headed rushing attack should help balance those things out just a bit.

Cleveland, meanwhile, isn’t a good team, but the Browns sure like to play a good game. In their last five games, Cleveland is 2-3, with two losses by less than 4 points. Trent Richardson looks like the next great thing, and Brandon Weeden is showing composure that I think few people expected out of him at this point. That said, nobody does well against the Steelers’ defense, least of all rookies in their first start against it.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 21-13

 

Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4):

You have to wonder when it’s going to come together for the Bills. A once-porous defense has played well in recent weeks, and Buffalo’s dynamic running backs have each had their time in the sun. It worked last week against a Miami team struggling to find its identity, but it will face a tougher test against the Colts and Andrew Luck this week, even with the return of Fred Jackson.

Indy, meanwhile, is tentatively holding onto its wildcard slot after getting pasted by the Patriots last week. Keep in mind, though, this is not a bad team. Andrew Luck threw his first two pick-sixes all year in that game, but still managed to put up 24 on New England. The Patriots simply ran up the score, a lot. This week will be an interesting test to see if Andrew Luck can keep his composure.

Buffalo Bills: 23-20

 

Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9):

Not much needs to be said here. Short of a home matchup against the Jaguars, it doesn’t get to be much easier of a win.

Denver Broncos: 27-13

 

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins:

Marshawn Lynch has been in Beast Mode for a while, but it’s the idea that Russell Wilson could be hitting his stride as well right now that is really scary. Seattle has easily the best secondary in the league at this point, and it’s hard to imagine any team, especially the reeling Dolphins, matching up against Seattle in a ground game. Of course, keep in mind here that Seattle is really not good on the road, and this is an early game on the East Coast.

Like I said before, the Dolphins don’t seem to have an identity. Reggie Bush still makes the occasional electrifying play, but Miami struggles to find ways to get him the ball. Ryan Tannehill has been great as a rookie, but he simply has no one to throw it to. The Seahawks have had their struggles on the road, but this time, Miami simply doesn’t have enough to beat them.

Seattle Seahawks: 21-20

 

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4):

This is the part that gets fun for Atlanta. The Falcons have run up the league’s best record, but they’ve done it by scrappy end-game plays against the easiest schedule in the country. Michael Turner is entering his late-season struggle stage yet again, leaving the job to win solely on Matt Ryan … who threw five interceptions last week.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, look like the team everyone thought they’d see last year at this point. Josh Freeman has been electrifying, and Doug Martin has taken the NFL by storm, singlehandedly winning two games in the past four weeks. The Bucs have got to do something about their secondary, which seems to give up at least one huge play a game, a streak that will likely continue into this week, but Tampa Bay has more than enough weapons to expose a shaky Falcons team at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31-24

 

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9):

The only upside that Jacksonville has over KC is that their quarterback situation just got much better. Chad Henne is an experienced veteran who knows how to make plays and how to utilize a dynamic receiver like Justin Blackmon. That said, the defense is way too holey, and the offense will be largely one-dimensional again this week. It’s simply not enough to hold off the Titans.

Tennessee Titans: 27-23

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6):

You’ve gotta hand it to the Ravens. They take blow after blow on defense, yet manage to recover and just keep making plays to win. Baltimore’s D has taken a bend-but-don’t-break mentality, and explosive plays, specifically from Jacoby Jones as return man, have managed to carry Baltimore, even when Joe Flacco is struggling. Of course, this still doesn’t justify the Ravens not using Ray Rice nearly as much as last year. Arguably the most versatile running back in the league has been hamstrung by his own coaching staff, and that’s something that may need to change for the Ravens to pull out a win here.

At this point, I look at Philip Rivers the way I looked at Jake Delhomme a few years back. He was very good in his prime, but the switch has suddenly gone off. He’s still capable of the big play, but his mental lapses (see his numerous fumbles inside the pocket) are just overwhelming at this point. However, the Chargers still have a solid defense, and the emergence of Denario Alexander gives the Chargers the type of balanced offense they need to knock off the Ravens this week.

San Diego Chargers: 24-17

 

San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-5):

I’m only going to say a little bit about this brewing catastrophe, because if I get started on a rant, odds are, I won’t be stopping. Alex Smith is 25-of-27 pre-concussion in his last two games. And he got benched. I don’t care how well the backup performed, that would’ve been like benching Aaron Rodgers for Matt Flynn in the playoffs last year. It’s just silly. And it will hurt the Niners here.

The Saints don’t need to do much here; Brees needs to be Brees, and the defense should be able to take care of the rest, seeing San Fran’s offense will likely confuse its own self perfectly well.

New Orleans Saints: 31-17

 

St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6):

Talk about a mess here. The Rams and Cardinals were the darlings of the early NFL season, and St. Louis had to go and ruin it by winning at Arizona in Week 5. Since then, both teams are winless. St. Louis doesn’t really have an excuse, with a solid defense, Sam Bradford, and the return of Danny Amendola. Of course, Amendola is doubtful this week, again, leaving St. Louis with simply a deep threat (Chris Givens) and a single short-game threat (Brandon Gibson).

Arizona, though … Yikes. Ryan Lindley is now taking snaps under center, and he is clearly struggling to establish a chemistry with Larry Fitzgerald. Beanie Wells does return to the starting lineup this week, but given the solid play of LaRod Stephens-Howling, the running game hasn’t been the issue. Thankfully for them, the Rams seem to be falling faster than Arizona, and the Cardinals should be able to at least stop the spiral.

Arizona Cardinals: 21-17

 

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4):

Aaron Rodgers is thanking his lucky stars for Randall Cobb right now. Despite the lack of a running game and injuries to his two best receivers, Rodgers has still managed to win game after game, thanks primarily to Cobb’s playmaking ability in the last six weeks. Now that Jordy Nelson should be fully returned to health and James Starks seems to have returned to favor, Green Bay should be a tough out for the remainder of the season.

New York, meanwhile, seems to be crumbling quickly. Victor Cruz has simply faded from view in past weeks, and conflict between Ahmad Bradshaw and Tom Coughlin have resulted in a mess at a running back for the Giants. Add to that a porous secondary that can’t seem to make plays to save its life, New York can’t like its chances this week.

Green Bay Packers: 31-23

 

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-7):

Could this be the worst Monday night game in NFL history? It has to be close. The Panthers, who have simply outplayed the Bears and Bucs in recent weeks, can’t seem to hold onto a lead, and the Eagles are completely listless without Vick and a defense that has simply fallen off the map. (Speaking of which, I just wanna say, I was right, I was right, I was right, about firing Juan Castillo. And now Andy Reid will be fired for it.) Philadelphia has home-field advantage, but given that home field is in the city notorious for bad fans, Carolina has to like its chances here.

Carolina Panthers: 23-20

 

Last Week: 8-5

Overall: 98-59-1